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Home › Uncategorized › Modi brings friends forever front to Dhaka as Bangladesh turns 50

Modi Brings Friends Forever Front To Dhaka As Bangladesh Turns 50

• Past relived, present brainstormed & future on a platter

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 31 March 2021. It was warm welcome, neighbourhood first, friends forever, future allies, past bonds and violent protests all rolled into one for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in Dhaka last week.

Modi’s two-day visit to Bangladesh which commenced on 26 March was his first foreign visit after the outbreak of COVID-19 and elections campaigns of Assam and West Bengal could not deter him from attending the 50^th Independence Day celebrations of Bangladesh and Dhakha responded in the same spirit with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina receiving him personally at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka, honouring her Indian counterpart with a 19-gun salute and Guard of Honour along with rolling out the red carpet.

In the presence of both the Prime Ministers five MOUs were signed covering diverse areas, three border Haats were inaugurated, foundation of Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant was also done. 109 life -saving ambulances and 1.2. million doses of COVID vaccine were also donated.

Modi meeting the Matua delegation and visit to Thakurbari which is the most sacred pilgrimage site for Matua community, fetched brick bats from many including Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee back home. Not deterred he offered prayers at Orakandi and Jeshoreshwari temples, paid tributes to Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and signed visitors book at Bangabandhu Mausoleum Complex.

Modi also met President Abdul Hamid and had bilateral talks with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Sheikh Hasina in her speech mentioned that “I thank the govt of India and Modi in particular for awarding Gandhi peace to Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. I extend gratitude to PM Modi and people of India for being helpful during the pandemic.” In her speech she appreciated the help and assistance from all Indians. She stated that ” All political parties of India are always united in one issue and that is being with the people of Bangladesh. We share Historical, cultural, geographical ties. India has sheltered 1 crore Bangladeshis, who fled from Bangladesh because of the atrocities of Pakistan. By the joint operation of both countries, victory was achieved. A notable number of Indian soldiers sacrificed their lives.  Self cooperation and contribution by the people of India can never be forgotten.”

Modi during his two-day visit also met Opposition leaders, Foreign Minister of Bangladesh, young achievers, freedom fighters, former cricket captain, members of minority community etc. Modi wore “Mujib Jackets” during his visit. The heads of state or heads of government of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Maldives were also present at the 50^th Independence Day ceremonies however prime minister Modi was the chief guest. On March 26 Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan sent a congratulatory message to Sheikh Hasina on the 50^th Independence Day of the country and also invited her to visit Pakistan. Imran Khan also mentioned that Pakistan wants to have strong ties with Bangladesh.

In December last year Pakistani High Commissioner in Dhaka also met Sheikh Hasina to strengthen the ties between both the countries. Bangladesh Prime Minister   expressed “good wishes” for Pakistan. Afterwards Imran Khan also talked to Sheikh Hasina on phone. All these moves indicate that Islamabad is keen to improve relations with Bangladesh. However, the intelligence fraternity feels that Pakistan is developing cordial relations with Bangladesh on behest of China. Beijing considers India as its potential rival hence it is not only winning India’s neighbours but is also encircling it. Secondly in past Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was using East Pakistan and later Bangladesh for assisting separatist outfits of North Eastern States of India. There were reports that ISI was running terrorist camps in Bangladesh where training was imparted to Indian secessionist groups. Nonetheless Sheikh Hasina ordered to close all the terrorist camps and ISI agents were either arrested or thrown out of the country. Hence ISI is keen to have cordial relations with Dacca so that ISI can launch transborder operations against India from Bangladesh.

Pakistan is passing through an economic crisis and it is becoming difficult for it to repay the foreign loan. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) which develops policies to combat money laundering and keeps an eye on terror financing had kept Pakistan in ‘grey list’ as it is financing, training, and sheltering to diverse terrorist outfits. FATF is also threatening Islamabad to downgrade it to ‘black list’ if it continues helping terrorist organisations. The foreign reserve of the country is in precarious condition, while Bangladesh is doing much better, and it emerged as second largest exporter of readymade garments. Bangladesh’s economy is seventh fastest growing economy in the world. Hence to detract the attention of Pakistani public from the economic achievements of Bangladesh, Imran government conducted a flight test of surface-to-surface ballistic missile on 26 March.

The ISI supporters instigated Islamic extremists, and the activists of Hefazat-e-Islam organised anti-Modi protests at several places in Bangladesh. In these protests at least four persons were killed, and several others injured at Chittagong. The left-wing students, pro-Chinese and anti-India elements also joined the protests and demonstrations. Although the protests were continuing before the arrival of Modi in Bangladesh but after his arrival on 26 March after Friday prayers the demonstrators clashed with security force personnel and raised anti-Modi slogans. Hefazat-e-Islam is a coalition of few Islamic outfits which does not believe in secularism and traditionally it is close to Jamaat-e-Islami and Bangladesh National Party (BNP) which is main opposition party and close to Pakistan. During the regime of BNP, ISI was running terrorist training camps in Bangladesh and was infiltrating terrorists in India. Hefazat is anti-India outfit and large number of its activists are the product of Saudi-funded madrassas.       

In 2018 China replaced USA as biggest investor in Bangladesh. Chinese investment grew after the visit of President Xi Jinping to Bangladesh in 2016 and also under Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China promised about $40 billion investment out of which $24.45 billion was for infrastructure development and $13.6 billion was in joint ventures. Beijing also promised loan of $ 20 billion. China has also given duty free access to 97 percent of Bangladeshi products w.e.f. 1 July 2020. At present bilateral trade is fully in favour of China and Bangladesh’s trade deficit with China rose to 1600% in last 20 years. China mainly imports raw material from Bangladesh and exports finished goods including electronic items, fertiliser, cement, tyres etc.

Beijing is an important arms supplier to Bangladesh and supplied tanks, missile boats and fighter planes. Both countries have already signed “Defence Cooperation Agreement” under which Bangladesh defence personnel are trained in China. In 2008 Dacca also test fired anti-ship missile and supplied a frigate to Bangladesh.

Both China and Pakistan are trying to woo Bangladesh albeit with different purposes. Islamabad with the help of fundamentalist Islamic parties wants to use Bangladesh for its anti-India activities. However, China wants to use Bangladesh for encircling India as well as a promoter of The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China’s loan which it gives for development of infrastructure is not on soft terms and it may create a problem at a later date. Sri Lanka lost Hambantota port because it could not repay the loan. The control of Gwadar port is already slipped from Pakistan and China is controlling it. Baloch leaders claim that China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is not in the interest of Pakistan as China intends to exploit the mineral resources of Balochistan.

China watchers claim that Beijing’s overture of duty-free access to Bangladesh products has no practical significance and Bangladesh businessmen would not be able to avail the concession as China has strict Rules of Origin criteria. More business relations with China may not be in interest of Bangladesh and a developing economy may fall into distress and despair. China under the garb of duty concession may push Bangladesh into a ‘debt trap’. India is genuine friend and will assist Bangladesh under ‘neighbourhood first’ policy although it does not have deep pockets like China hence its financial assistance will be limited.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com).   

Is Bangladesh Going in the Lap of China?

Although after Pakistan, in South Asia, Bangladesh received maximum investments from China and several analysts claim that Dhaka is falling in a debt trap of Beijing. Notwithstanding, it is believed that Dhaka will not work against the interests of New Delhi

September 5, 2020EditorOpinion

By Jai Kumar Verma

Source: ORF

China which considers India as nascent challenger in the region slowly but steadily trying to win over latter’s neighbours. Pakistan which already lost Gwadar seaport, and is in the grip of China published a map one day before the first anniversary of the defanging of article 370. The political map included Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) as part of Pakistan.

Nepal also on the behest of China issued a map in which Indian areas including Limpiadhura, Lipulek and Kalapani were shown as part of Nepal. The critics mention that Rajapaksa government of Sri Lanka is pro-China and several important projects are going to Chinese companies.

Beijing assessed that at present the relations between Dhaka and New Delhi have deteriorated as Bangladesh government is against India’s National Register of Citizens (NRC) and The Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 which gives eligibility for Indian citizenship to illegal migrants belong to the communities of Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan but excludes Muslims.

Dhaka feels that Indian security agencies will push the illegal Bangladeshis in the country and in future unemployed Bangladeshis will not able to infiltrate in India. Sheikh Hasina had also not given time to meet Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka for about four months.

Chinese companies successfully acquired important projects including development of a smart city near Dhaka and construction of airport in Sylhet, a city in eastern Bangladesh. Recently China agreed to fund projects of more than US$6 billion while it was already working on the infrastructure projects worth US$10 billion.

Chinese companies successfully acquired important projects including development of a smart city near Dhaka and construction of airport in Sylhet, a city in eastern Bangladesh. Recently China agreed to fund projects of more than US$6 billion while it was already working on the infrastructure projects worth US$10 billion

The defence relations between China and Bangladesh are also enhancing these days. Beijing is supplying tanks, fighter jets, submarines, frigates and other equipment to Bangladesh. Both the countries have signed a Defence Cooperation Agreement in 2002.

In a calculated move to win over Bangladesh, China exempted 97 per cent of Bangladesh exports from duty. Chinese President Xi Jinping granted this concession during a telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Now 8,256 Bangladeshi articles have become duty-free.

In 2016 when Xi Jinping visited Bangladesh, he promised an investment of US$25 billion. In 2019 Bangladesh also awarded contract to a Chinese firm to construct renewable energy projects which can produce 500 megawatts of power by 2023.

China is also assisting Bangladesh as it is an important country for the success of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is a leading project of Xi Jinping. According to a rough estimate, China promised investments worth US$38 billion under BRI related projects in Bangladesh.

The Indian security agencies are of the view that once China gets stronghold in Bangladesh, Chinese intelligence agency Ministry of State Security (MSS) will also involve Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).

It may be noted here that the sinister ISI since beginning has used East Pakistan and later Bangladesh for fomenting trouble in India. There are reports that in the past Pakistan had terrorist training camps in Bangladesh where it was training insurgents of diverse terrorist outfits from the north eastern states of India.

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan called Sheikh Hasina in July 2020 and desired to have cordial relations between both the countries. Pakistani High Commissioner in Bangladesh also met Abul Kalam Abdul Momen, Bangladeshi Minister of Foreign Affairs, just before Imran Khan called Sheikh Hasina. Pakistani High Commissioner also pleaded for stronger relations between both the countries on the basis of religion and culture.

Bangladesh claims that Indian implementation of projects is awfully slow, and it is an important reason that the neighbouring countries are leaning more towards China. Reliance Power and Adani Group declared construction of power projects, but they are still in initial stages. Projects like Akhaura-Agartala rail link, India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline, inland water ways all are extremely sluggish and behind schedule. Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicles Agreement is also not rolling. The sharing of water of Teesta river is an antagonistic issue and is not resolved.

Now China has agreed for extensive dredging of Teesta river and its tributaries, building of dams, stopping of erosion and reclamation of land. Although Chinese project in Teesta river will not directly affect India but it will enhance Chinese image in Bangladesh as it will be a big engineering achievement. It will also indicate that several states in India are suffering from flood and water shortage and government is unable to take any action.

The sharing of Teesta river water between India and Bangladesh is an antagonistic issue and is not resolved. Now China has agreed for extensive dredging of Teesta river and its tributaries, building of dams, stopping of erosion and reclamation of land. Although Chinese project in Teesta river will not directly affect India but it will enhance Chinese image in Bangladesh

From Bangladesh side, Sheikh Hasina paid a visit to China in July 2019 where bilateral trade was the main agenda of the Bangladeshi PM’s visit. Several agreements were also signed during the visit. China also promised the loan of US$1.7 billion to improve power sector.

Chinese companies also adopt underhand techniques. Dhaka-Sylhet highway project which was worth US$1.6 billion was cancelled by Bangladesh authorities as the Chinese contractor tried to bribe the Bangladeshi officials. China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) which also constructed Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka was blacklisted by Bangladesh.

Analysts remark that Chinese companies oust the competitors from the market by using unjust ways. It is also mentioned that Chinese companies also obtain contracts through lower bids but later change the terms and conditions of the contract, out of which they charge more for spare parts.

After Pakistan, in South Asia, Bangladesh received maximum investments from China, nevertheless several analysts claim that Dhaka is falling in a Chinese debt trap. They give the example of Sri Lanka as it had to give Hambantota port on 99 years lease to China because of non-payment of loan.

Critics also mention that Myanmar uprooted Rohingya Muslims from the country by using Chinese weapons, and China is still supporting Myanmar militarily without understanding the problems Bangladesh is facing because of Rohingya refugees.

However, if we talk of the relations between India and Bangladesh, they are historically cordial. India extended three lines of credit for the development of infrastructure projects in railways, roads, shipping etc. New Delhi also gave 10 diesel locomotives to Dhaka recently.

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla paid two successful visits to Dhaka. In the recent visit in August 2020 several bilateral issues were discussed including the cooperation over the Coronavirus vaccine. There is a good synergy between both the prime ministers, and Modi understands that cordial relation with Bangladesh is essential for the development of north eastern states.

Besides Bengali relationship, India should also cultivate Tamil and Telugu population in Bangladesh which is controlling the textile industry in the country. Medical tourism is also increasing, and Bangladeshi students are also coming to India for studies.

There is always a vast difference between the announcement of Chinese investment and the real amount invested by Beijing. On the other hand, India’s loan terms and conditions are much better and there is no difference between announcement and actual delivery.

India’s relations with its neighbours including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Maldives are quite cordial. Nepal has become difficult during the prime ministership of KP Sharma Oli, while India’s relations with Afghan government as well as with Taliban are quite cordial.

From Bangladesh side, Sheikh Hasina paid a visit to China in July 2019 where bilateral trade was the main agenda of the Bangladeshi PM’s visit. Several agreements were also signed during the visit. China also promised the loan of US$1.7 billion to improve power sector

India is receiving overwhelming support from several countries including the United States, Australia, Japan, Vietnam, France, Russia and European Union during the hostilities with China. Few countries are vocal while some countries are supporting silently.

Bangladesh is aware of Chinese underhand practices and it will not embitter its relations with India. It may also be possible that Dhaka may try to extract some more favours from India to counter its closeness with Beijing. Few analysts also claim that Sheikh Hasina wants to encash anti-India sentiments in the country by showing closeness with China.

Bangladesh is a sovereign nation and has cordial relations with India and although it is accepting assistance from China in the development of infrastructure in the country, but it will not affect India Bangladesh relationship and Dhaka will not work against the interests of New Delhi.

-Jai Kumar Verma is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also a member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda

 

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Why And How Pakistan Was Surpassed By Its Poor Cousin Bangladesh?

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By J.K.Verma

New Delhi. 13 February 2019. In 1971 when Bangladesh was dissected from Pakistan, it was in a miserable condition. Pakistan Army before surrender, destroyed roads, bridges, railways and industries of the then East Pakistan. Big industrialists left the country and millions of Bangladeshis were displaced, killed and mutilated during independence struggle. Not only this in November 1970 East Pakistan also suffered a horrific cyclone, which killed about five hundred thousand persons and destroyed property worth $ 86 million, as expected Central government at Islamabad has not rendered enough assistance to the cyclone hit areas.

 However, from last few years Bangladesh is constantly earning more GDP, than its main rival Pakistan, by investing more in women empowerment, children education and healthcare. The government and NGOs constantly worked to improve at the grassroots level. The success of readymade garment industry is closely linked with the success of Bangladesh. Consequently, in the recent fiscal year Bangladesh GDP per person became $ 1538 while Pakistan’s GDP was $1470 only.

It is projected that GDP growth of Bangladesh in Fiscal year 18-20 will be between 6.5 percent to 7 percent, while Pakistan’s GDP growth in the corresponding period will be 5.8. percent only. The annual growth of Bangladesh from last ten years is about six percent and last year it was 7.8 percent, little less than India, but much above Pakistan which had 5.8 percent only. The foreign exchange reserve of Dacca is $32 billion, while Pakistan which is passing through an economic disaster is only $ 8 billion. The prime minister of Pakistan has already approached Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, China and International Monetary Fund (IMF) for monetary assistance. Imran Khan the prime Minister of Pakistan will be meeting IMF Chief Christine Lagarde on February 17 at Dubai and will again request for a bailout package. Although the population of Pakistan is more than Bangladesh but still the per capita debt liability on Bangladesh is just $434 while Pakistan’s per capita debt is more than double i.e. $974.

Bangladesh with sustained efforts have enhanced its export. In 1971 the export was negligible but in 2018 it enhanced to $35.8 billion. According to IMF the economy of Bangladesh is rising, and it will be $322 billion by 2021, from present $180 billion.

Bangladesh also successfully controlled the population explosion. In 1951 the population of East Pakistan was 42 million while the population of West Pakistan was 33.7 million, however at present the population of Pakistan is 200.81 million while the population of Bangladesh is about 166.36 million. Unfortunately, because of rise of Islamic fundamentalism no government can implement family planning measures in Pakistan. The population growth in Pakistan is highest in the region.

Dacca is much ahead of Islamabad in women employment and immunisation programmes which improved the health of female and children. Life expectancy is 72.5 years in Bangladesh while in Pakistan it is only 66.5 years. Bangladesh received much lesser foreign assistance from United States, China and Saudi Arabia in comparison to Pakistan, which has a geographical advantage, but it is still doing much better than Pakistan.

Pakistan Army which considers itself as the saviour of the country had to suffer heavy losses in 1971, when more than 90000 soldiers surrendered to Indian army. Punjabi dominated Pakistan Army usurps large resources of the country on the name of protecting the country from India. Pakistan spends lot of resources on the purchase of arms and ammunition instead of investing in the upliftment of poor masses. Pakistan spends three percent of its GDP on defence while Bangladesh devotes only one percent of GDP on defence.

Bangladesh surpassed Pakistan because it devoted money in poverty alleviation, human development, creation of jobs, augmentation of exports and lessening its dependence on foreign aid and loan. It also sorted out some problems with India while others were kept in backburner. Begum Hasina developed cordial relations with India and terrorist training camps controlled by ISI and their henchmen were destroyed and Indian terrorists took refuge in Bangladesh were handed over to Delhi. It all reduced tensions between India and Bangladesh and both the countries were able to devote more time and money in the development of the country while Pakistan is spending its meagre resources in taking revenge from India. Pakistan should devote more time, energy and financial resources in the development of the country.

Pakistan Army has convinced the fundamentalists in the country that military controlled Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has launched several covert operations in Kashmir and Pakistan will snatch it from India. The deep state has also assured the poor, illiterate, Madrassa educated Islamists that they will install puppet regime in Afghanistan.

The sinister ISI has launched low-intensity war against India and assisting diverse terrorist outfits which are carrying-out terrorist activities in Afghanistan. Pakistan should stop all these clandestine operations and should invest in the development of the country.

The elected representatives in Bangladesh do not work under the dictates of army hence they have to work for the welfare of the electorates while in Pakistan Army rules the country directly or indirectly and neither, they have to face elections nor the masses.

Pakistan should try to cultivate friendly relations with its neighbours and should eschew the path of abetting terrorist outfits. Pakistan is considered as a terrorist state in the world hence it is not getting the investments and foreigners including industrialists of Pakistan origin settled abroad are reluctant to invest in Pakistan due to poor security situation.

In the previous year Bangladesh earned $21 billion by exporting garments which is 90 percent of its foreign exchange and gives employment to about 13 million persons. China earns about $ 80 billion out of $200 billion West spends in the import of garments. The daily wages are increasing in China and it is expected that soon it will start losing the business. In that case Bangladesh will be the biggest beneficiary as Islamabad will not get much business as importers are afraid of visiting Pakistan. Pakistan figures in the top twenty on the Global Conflict Index while Bangladesh is not in the list. The other countries including India will not be benefitted much because of diverse reasons.  

The deep state of Pakistan is happy by exploiting the scant resources of the country without caring about its financial hardships, poor image in the international arena and the pitiable condition of the masses. The deep state cannot apologise Bangladesh for its atrocities as it will reduce the malicious propaganda against its arch-enemy India. Pakistan’s foreign as well as internal policies are formulated by deep state, Islamic fanatics and drug-mafia hence the country is maintaining the Jihadi image.

In Pakistan there are several nationalities, but all rights and privileges are grabbed by Punjabis. All other nationalities are exploited and downgraded. In fact, Bangladesh was created because of maltreatment, exploitation and denying of the rights of the residents of East Pakistan. At present Balochis, Pashtuns, Sindhis, Muhajirs, Kashmiris, residents of Gilgit and Baltistan, Saraikis etc are either fighting for separate states or for more autonomy. Pakistan should try to resolve the genuine grievances of these discontented nationalities otherwise it will again blame its eastern neighbour for the disintegration of the country. The rulers in Pakistan must also realise that two nation theory is failed, and religion alone cannot keep these diverse nationalities together.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan will be calamitous for region

If the Taliban comes to power, it will be a tragedy for India too; the Taliban being supported by Pakistan will harm Indian projects and interests in that country, writes J.K.Verma for South Asia Monitor

By J.K.Verma FEB 5, 2019

US President Donald Trump is desperate to recall troops from Afghanistan for domestic compulsions and, for this, he appointed Zalmay Khalilzad as special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation in September 2018. Khalilzad met Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and top Afghan officials in October and subsequently led an inter-agency delegation to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.

Besides Qatar, reconciliation talks were also held in UAE in December, for which Pakistan claimed credit. The Khalilzad-led US team, the Taliban, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE took part in those talks, which ended abruptly. Although Afghan government representatives were in the UAE, they were not allowed to participate, because the Taliban refused to sit with them. 

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said more reconciliatory talks would be held in future and that talks centred around the removal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. He made it clear that internal matters, such as formation of an interim government, elections, ceasefire and so on, were not discussed.

After the talks, Khalilzad visited Pakistan and met Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and briefed him about the talks. Analysts claim that Khalilzad requested Bajwa to persuade the Taliban to soften their attitude so that reconciliation talks succeed. After Islamabad, Khalilzad also visited Kabul and briefed Afghan authorities about the outcome of the talks.

American troops landed in Afghanistan in December 2001, to defeat Al Qaeda and to safeguard US interests. An American general had testified before the US Congress that they had “decimated Al Qaeda.” The critics said the statement was intended to justify withdrawal of American troops from war-torn Afghanistan. However the world at large and Americans in particular must remember the horrific September 11, 2001 attacks, which were carried out by Al Qaeda and the Taliban sheltered them in Afghanistan. The announcement of intent to withdraw US troops is under domestic pressure and without considering the country’s long-term interest.

The control of the Taliban over large parts of Afghanistan is not diminishing and ill-equipped, ill-trained and dispirited Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are suffering heavy causalities and losing territories. In fact, over the last few months, fatalities have enhanced to the level that the Afghan government was forced not to publish reports of casualties.

In case the US withdraws completely, then China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan would try to enhance their influence in Afghanistan. These countries would try to increase their economic and political sway in Central Asia through Afghanistan. 

President Trump’s advisers feel that the 17 years’ war, in which more than 2300 US citizens have lost their lives, is still not near any solution. The Taliban are getting assistance from various quarters, particularly from Pakistan, which wants to install a puppet regime in Kabul and considers the Taliban as a strategic asset. The present Afghan government could not achieve legitimacy as quite a few tribal groups are not part of the administration and the tribal leaders in administration are either benefiting their families or fulfilling the interests of their tribes.  

US foreign policy depends on the country’s domestic policies. Trump has ordered the withdrawal of about half the 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan and also withdrawal of 2,000 US troops deployed in Syria. Defense Secretary James Mattis resigned as he and many Trump advisers felt that hasty withdrawal of US troops would embolden the Taliban and the present Afghan government will collapse.

Once Taliban comes to power, Islamic extremism would enhance manifold and Al Qaeda and Islamic State would proliferate. Taliban would impose Sharia law and will take the country to the primitive age. State-sponsored Islamic terrorism would surge and wide-ranging terrorist incidents would take place, not only in neighbouring countries but also in distant places like America and Europe.

Sunni and Shia-ruled countries would finance diverse terrorist outfits and they will carry out terrorist activities not only in Afghanistan but in other countries. Hence Trump should postpone his decision to withdraw troops for some more time and utilise the extended period to train and equip the ANDSF with drones and other weaponry to enable them to bombard hideouts of terrorists in Afghanistan and, particularly, in Pakistan. However, care must be taken to minimize civilian casualties.

India should not send its troops to war-ravaged Afghanistan but must enhance the number of Afghan security trainees in India. If the Taliban comes to power, it will be a tragedy for India too; the Taliban being supported by Pakistan will harm Indian projects and interests in that country.

Although Afghan leaders are showing a brave face by saying that US troops are involved in training and advice only, and ANDSF is competent to counter the Taliban and other terrorist outfits, Afghan watchers are aware about the hollowness of these claims. The withdrawal of US troops will have a calamitous effect on ANDSF and will be a great morale-booster for the Taliban.

(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

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Home » Spotlight » Bangladesh elections : Landslide victory for Hasina

Bangladesh Elections : Landslide Victory For Hasina

Courtesy : npr streaming

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 01 January 2018. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina hit the hat trick by securing landslide victory in the parliamentary election held on December 30^th, 2018. Sheikh Hasina’s Bangladesh Awami League and its allied parties won 288 seats. In the elections held in 2014 Awami League won 234 seats and Jaitya Party (Ershad) won 34 seats while the main opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of Khalida Zia boycotted the elections, as BNP did not participate, 153 seats remained uncontested. In 2018 election, BNP also participated, although Khalida Zia is imprisoned under corruption charges and was also barred from contesting elections. She claims that it is a clear cut case of political vendetta. Khalida Zia is also suffering with mild attack of paralysis. Her son Tarique Rahman acting Chairman of BNP has taken refuge in London to evade a life-term sentence. In their absence the alliance was led by the 81 year old lawyer Kamal Hossain who also worked with Hasina, as minister. Nevertheless the performance of the BNP as well as of the alliance dwindled and Awami League increased its tally.

There are a total of 350 seats in the parliament, out of which 50 seats are reserved for women, hence election was held for 300 seats. There are about 104 million registered voters, who casted their votes in 40,199 polling stations. First time electronic voting machines were used in about six constituencies in the election. Sheikh Hasina bagged 229,539 votes while the main contestant from BNP got only 123 votes.

The opposition parties alleged that election was farce, rigged and flawed because of massive violence. The opposition also demanded that fresh election should be held under an impartial government. The opposition parties alleged that there were wrongdoings in 221 seats out of 300 seats contested and the goons of ruling party stuffed the ballot boxes. One correspondent reported that he saw the filled ballot boxes at a polling station before the polling started. Only the polling agents of ruling party were allowed at the polling stations and there were serious complaints that the voters were threatened to cast their votes to the ruling party. More than 40 candidates of opposition parties withdrew, before the conclusion of voting as they alleged massive rigging and intimidation by the ruling party and administration. The Election Commission accepted that the complaints about rigging were from all over the country and the commission will look after the matter. The election commission has also suspended voting at 22 centres in the country.

In view of speculation of widespread violence Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission suspended 3G and 4G connections from December 29 till completion of elections.

The opposition National Unity Front (NUF) which is the coalition of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD), Gono Forum, Krishak Sramik Janata League and Nagorik Oikya etc. rejected the poll results.

The BNP also mentioned that more than 12,923 persons belonging to NUF were injured in about 2,833 attacks occurred on opposition candidates and their supporters. About 1,574 cases were filed against NUF supporters between 8 November and 25 December in different parts of the country. The security forces have arrested 15,568 NUF supporters during the corresponding period. Few newspapers have also claimed that there were widespread violence against workers and supporters of opposition parties. On December 30 more than 18 persons were killed in the violence between supporters of ruling party and opposition.

The opposition parties also alleged that there were bogus voting and when their voters reached at the polling stations they found that someone else had already voted for them. The polling officers closed the polling booths under the garb of lunch breaks and voters were not allowed to cast the votes. In the lunch breaks ballot boxes were stuffed with forged votes. The ballots were counted hastily which also indicates the malafide intentions. The opposition parties also alleged that the Sheikh Hasina has become very authoritarian in last ten years.

However the Awami League leaders stated that these opposition candidates withdrew as they understood that they will lose with considerable margins. Prime Minister Hasina also mentioned that the party workers of opposition, attacked their workers and when they realised that there is no chance to win they alleged about rigging of the elections. The Awami League leaders remarked that there was overall progress of the country during Hasina’s tenure hence the electorates voted for the party.

Bangladesh achieved economic growth and its GDP has increased during Hasina’s tenure. The manufacturing sector especially garment industry became second after China in the world. 2.5 billion Overseas workers pumped about $15 billion in the economy of the Bangladesh last year. The country has adopted a liberal investment policy and simplified conditions for doing business; it encouraged foreign investments, permitted liberal tax holidays, reduced duties for importing machines, unrestricted exit policy, repatriation of dividends etc. She allowed constructing 100 special economic zones and agreed to revitalise policies pertaining to energy and infrastructure.

India is also investing in Bangladesh and trying to generate employment in country which may reduce the illegal migration to India. The illegal migration has created several problems in the Indian states including the change in demography.

Prime Minister Modi called and conveyed his heartiest congratulations for achieving the decisive victory and expressed trust that the friendship between both the countries will be strengthened under her “far-sighted” leadership.

Bangladesh is significant for providing the connectivity between India and its North Eastern States as the connection is through a narrow piece of land which is also known as chicken’s neck. Both India and Bangladesh signed several agreements under which India transports goods and passengers from West Bengal to Tripura. India is also using Chittagong port frequently.

In view of increasing Islamic fundamentalism in the Muslim majority state of Bangladesh the 11^th Parliamentary elections has direct implications on India’s security. Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are also trying hard to establish their units in Bangladesh. Saudi Arabia is sending money for the construction of mosques and Madrassas, which is increasing Wahhabism in the country. The government of Awami League is regulating these donations which will be good in long run, as it will not allow Islamic extremism to escalate.   

Hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Musims have taken refuge in the country and are residing in a very pitiable condition. There are reports that the nefarious Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan is trying to win over Rohingya Muslims to carryout terrorist activities in India as well as in Bangladesh against the present Hasina government. ISI wanted that BNP come to power with the support of Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) as ISI uses India Bangladesh borders for infiltrating terrorists inside India. Rohingya Muslims were migrated to Jammu and settled there. Few of them were also caught in Kashmir valley along with terrorists.

During the regime of Khalida Zia, Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) became very active in Bangladesh as well as in India. Sheikh Hasina took stern actions against terrorists of JMB which was good for both the countries. Tarique Rahman is a known India baiter and is close to ISI, although at present he is in London but he is in contact with ISI. Hence it is good that friendly government of  Sheikh Hasina returned to power, as it would be difficult for India to manage both Western as well as Eastern borders simultaneously.

Sheikh Hasina played a pivotal in destroying camps of North East terrorist outfits and also handed over Anup Chetia, the General Secretary of banned United Liberation Front of Assam to India.

Bangladesh is also important for India as China which considers India as its potential adversary has encircled India. Sri Lanka had to lease out Hambantota port to China and took control of two islands of Maldives and deployed nuclear powered submarine in Marao Islands, Pakistan which is passing through an economic crisis has already given control of Gwador port while analysts claim that China will occupy arable land of Gilgit and Baltistan as well as exploit mineral resources of Balochistan. Prime Minister of Nepal Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli who is the Chairman of the Nepal Communist Party is very close to China. He signed several agreements with China to lessen Nepal’s dependence on India. China has also established signal intelligence unit in Coco Islands of Myanmar.

China also wants to control Chittagong port of Bangladesh which is the second busiest port in the region. China has financed a container shipping facility in the port with ulterior motive of gaining control of the port. However Sheikh Hasina government made it clear that it will not allow the use of port for any military activities.

Bangladesh is progressing under the accomplished leadership of Sheikh Hasina. She has stopped the reprehensible activities of ISI and other terrorist groups from Bangladesh. She is also against the spread of Islamic extremism and wants to have cordial relations with India, hence the victory of Awami League is good not only for Bangladesh but for India too.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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The strategic importance of Sheikh Hasina's visit: India must help strengthen her position

Posted:Mar 25, 2017 
 

By Jai Kumar Verma

 The relations between India and Bangladesh have been strengthening steadily after Narendra Modi took oath as Prime Minister over three years ago. 

The cooperation enhanced in several fields including energy and bilateral trade as India accorded duty-free benefits to Bangladesh on a large number of items. India is not only assisting Bangladesh in producing electricity, it is also exporting 600 megawatt of electricity and has promised to export more if the eastern neighbour requires. 

 Both the countries have signed and executed Land Boundary Agreement which also sorted out the lingering enclave problem. 

 Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government is providing proactive support to India in curbing the nefarious activities of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) in smuggling of Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN), drug trafficking and in infiltrating terrorists across the porous India-Bangladesh border. 

 Sheikh Hasina also helped India in isolating Pakistan in the world arena and her refusal to attend the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit meeting in Islamabad in November last year was a positive gesture. 

 In view of the above, the upcoming state visit of Sheikh Hasina to India, from April 7 to 10, is significant hence Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar paid a two-day visit during the last week of February to chalk out the areas of bilateral cooperation, including border security, power, energy, shipping and railways.

 It will be difficult to sort out water-sharing of Teesta and Feni rivers during the visit as West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee may not agree to the agreement. In 2011 also, Mamata had abandoned her trip to Dhaka which resulted in non-signing of the water-sharing accord.  

 On the other hand, Teesta river, which starts from Sikkim and goes to Bangladesh through West Bengal, is important for Bangladesh, as in December to March the water level falls to 1,000 cusecs from 5,000 cusecs.  

 The tense relations between Modi and Mamata further worsened after demonetisation. Hence the possibility that she would agree to water sharing with Bangladesh is remote. 

 In view of China’s rising interest in Bangladesh, then Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar paid a two-day visit to Dhaka in November in the first official visit of an Indian Defence Minister to Bangladesh.  

 So far, Bangladeshi troops get training in India and there are joint defence exercises between both the countries but India needs to develop more close defence relations with its eastern neighbour in view of China’s rising influence in Bangladesh. 

 China, which is the leading trading partner and fulfills more than 75 percent defence requirements of Bangladesh, recently sold two submarines equipped with lethal weapons, including torpedoes and mines, to the country. China, which has invested heavily in infrastructure projects, also promised $40 billion investment during the recent visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

 Hence India has to come forward in a big way to assist Bangladesh economically. Although acquiring of two old submarines may not be a wise decision, nonetheless it may be a beginning of acquisition of more lethal weapons by Bangladesh.

 China views India as its potential rival hence it tries to encircle India. In the recent past, China has hardened its attitude towards India which is illustrated by China having prevented Masood Azhar being declared a terrorist by the United Nations and also blocking India becoming member of the elite Nuclear Suppliers Group. 

 Therefore, India must enhance defence cooperation and supply weapons required by Bangladesh. The Modi government is strengthening the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Public Sector undertakings like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) under the 'Make in India' programme. The production of defence armaments may be enhanced and India will certainly be in a better position to export arms and ammunition to its neighbouring countries, especially Bangladesh, Nepal and Afghanistan. 

 The forthcoming visit of Sheikh Hasina is important for both the countries. The Bangladeshi public, especially the political opposition, is watching the visit with critical eyes and if Hasina is not able to achieve much, her position would decline. She wants rapid development and economic growth of the country as it is essential to control radicalisation and terrorism. India which is also on the active radar of the Islamic State and al Qaeda must assist Bangladesh so that Sheikh Hasina can curb the menace of Islamic terrorism which is also growing in Bangladesh with the sinister ISI fuelling it. 

 The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is important to sideline Pakistan and explicit support of Bangladesh -- which hosts the BIMSTEC secretariat -- is significant. Bangladesh support is also essential for the success of India’s Act East Policy. 

 The stalwarts of Modi government are aware about the strategic importance of the visit and they know that Hasina cannot return empty-handed. As it is difficult to resolve the Teesta river issue, India must compensate in other areas. It is expected that both the countries may sign about 18-20 agreements in various fields, including energy, space, railways and different technological areas.

 The delegations of both countries would discuss rising influence of terror outfits like al Qaeda and Islamic State and intelligence-sharing would be further strengthened. 

 The Indian side would also raise the issue of rising atrocities on Hindus, especially in Nasirnagar where thousands of workers of Hefajat-e-Islam and Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat took out a procession against Hindus and damaged their property. 

 China has inculcated a strong lobby in its favour in Bangladesh. The lobby includes several important persons, including former ministers and current advisers. Analysts mention that even Hasina’s son is pro-China. India must try to wean away the rising influence of China by developing a pro-India lobby to counter influence of China and ISI. 

 In fact both India and Bangladesh are sufferers of ISI-sponsored terrorism. In 2015, Bangladesh expelled a Pakistani diplomat who was assisting terrorist outfits. Pakistan has emerged as a big training centre of terrorists from all over the world, especially India and Bangladesh. Hence both countries should work in tandem so that terrorism can be eradicated once for all. 

 India must assist Sheikh Hasina so that her position is strengthened in the country and, in turn, Bangladesh can help India in isolating terror-sponsor Pakistan and curbing Islamic terrorism in the region. 

 (The author is a Delhi-based strategic analyst. Comments and suggestions on this article can be sent to editor@spsindia.in)