India beats China in acceptance as Global South leader
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Reputation & good will leave big brother behind
By JK Verma
New Delhi. 13 April 2023. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “People of Global South should no longer be excluded from the fruits of development. Together we must attempt to redesign global political and financial governance. This can remove inequities, enlarge opportunities, support growth, and spread progress and prosperity,” at the Voice of Global South Summit 2023, it raised eyebrows of many who were not aware of the concept.
The theory of Global North and Global South is used to describe a grouping of countries along the lines of socio-economic and political characteristics. The Global South is a term generally used to identify countries in the regions of Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania.
Both India and China two Asian giants are fighting for the leadership of Global South. China is economically stronger, as China’s economy is approximately five times bigger than India’s economy. The Indian GDP is approximately $1.5 trillion while Chinese economy is about $ seven trillion. Hence China has clear advantage over India economically but India has its strong points being a democratic country which can correspond better with European countries. India, United States, Japan, and Australia all four are members of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). In 2017 Quad was resurrected to counter the aggressive designs of China. The first formal summit of Quad was held in 2021. China termed Quad as “Asian NATO”.
The influence of China boosted when in March this year it mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran and both the arch rivals agreed to reopen their embassies and consulates in each other’s country. Again, few days back the foreign ministers of both Saudi Arabia and Iran met in Beijing and discussed important points about recommencement of bilateral relations. Both these countries are staunch adversaries and broke diplomatic relations in 2016. The resumption of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia is considered as a diplomatic victory of China and a setback to U.S. as Saudi Arabia is a close ally of U.S. while Iran is a rival of U.S. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran were supporting contrasting sides in civil war in Yemen.
Just few days back Iran also announced the appointment of Reza Ameri as a new ambassador to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Russia from March 21 to 23 and during this visit he tried to negotiate a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine. Xi Jinping gave a 12-points peace plan “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”. In reality the current Chinese peace plan is part of its diplomatic rivalry with U.S. However, couple of days ago Russia ruled out Chinese mediation in Ukraine.
Courtesy : Kremlin
China also wants to project itself as a peace maker in global south. China has also issued a concept paper defining China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) which was first declared in April 2022. The paper is Chinese master plan under which China fixes a crucial role for itself under the garb of defending the world peace especially in global south. Beijing understands that several countries of the global south do not share western perception about Russia Ukraine war and they do not consider Russia as an aggressor. These countries of global south want an early peaceful solution to Russia Ukraine war.
Beijing through its Ukraine peace plan is also trying to retune its relationship with European countries. In reality China uses the global south countries to increase its influence in the world politics. At present the Group of 77 (G77), which is the biggest intergovernmental organisation of developing countries in United Nations, has 134 members. China intermittently holds its meeting under a structure of “the G-77 plus China” to expand its influence.
China also planned to increase its sway through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Under this project Beijing claimed to develop huge infrastructure projects in the developing countries. The BRI, which was previously known as One Belt, One Road (OBOR) was launched in 2013 but according to analyst most of the projects are still incomplete. Nonetheless China gave loan to the developing economies on inflated interest rates and on stringent terms. Hence large number of countries could not repay the loan and China has to reschedule these loans. However, it ruined the financial condition of numerous countries. These loans, their rescheduling or not repaying has also shattered the economic condition of China.
PMs of India & Japan, Fumio Kishida
The world including global south also realises that although China presents a peace plan for Ukraine but constantly threatens Taiwan and its other neighbours especially India and Japan.Western world especially U.S. wants to use India as a partner to counter China hence India is in much better position to lead global south than China. India has cordial relations not only with US but with European countries too. On the other hand, China’s relations with US are very tense not only on economic front but on political arena too. China is closely associated with Russia and last month Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a three-day visit to Moscow. Beijing is helping Moscow, hence the several sanctions mounted on Russia by the West are becoming ineffective. North Korea which is close to China is supplying arms and ammunition to Russia while US and other western countries are supplying armaments to Ukraine. Hence neutral India is in a much better position to mediate between Western countries and the developing world.
Secondly the relations between Beijing and global south are becoming terse as the developing economies to whom China had given loan on higher rates of interest are not able to repay the loan. The economic condition of these countries are worsening. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and few African countries are the victims of Chinese debt diplomacy. Besides debt problems, Beijing has also issues with few Southeast Asian nations about territorial rights in South China Sea.
U.S. also considers that India can work as a link between U.S. and global south hence it avoided putting restrictions on Delhi although India violated U.S. sanctions against Russia. Not only the global south but the world also feel that it would be good if the influence of democratic India enhances on global south than aggressive China. At present Japan has the rotating presidency of Group of Seven industrialised countries while India Chairs the G-20. It would augment and strengthen the collaboration with the developing countries.
QUAD giving China sleepless nights
The importance of global south is increasing as most of the countries are neutral although the conflict between Western world and Russia – China camp is growing. Although China has deep pockets and financial clout but strategists claim that India is more suitable to lead the global south than China. At present the economies of several countries is in critical condition partially because of Covid pandemic and later because of Russia Ukraine war. These countries are facing acute shortage of food, energy and are unable to repay their debts. India as the G-20 chair would not only plead their case but also emphasise that the rich western countries should not only support Ukraine but should also economically assist these developing countries.
In January 2023 Delhi also organised online “Voice of Global South Summit: for Human-Centric Development,” in which 120 countries were invited. A total of 10 sessions occurred under which global economy, debt issues, rising inflation, food scarcity, energy crisis, climate change were discussed. As the developing countries discussed their problems, now India as chair of G-20 can raise their issues with the wealthy countries.
Memories of cordial times
Although Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a three-day visit to Russia, both are communist countries and the bilateral trade between them became $190 billion in 2022 but there are several acute differences. In the recent visit Xi had upper hand literally as well as figuratively. Putin being a very strong leader will never like the dominance of Xi. Jinping. Chinese total debt is about $ 51.9 trillion which is more than U.S. Few economists claim that the debt is so much that it can shatter the economy of the country. Hence the biggest strength of China, which is its deep pockets, is taking a beating.
Large number of countries both in developed as well as developing world feel that President Xi Jinping’s policies are threatening hence, they should take due precautions. The countries which feel threatened by China are increasing their defence budgets while other countries are resorting to military exercises and signing treaties and constituting new alliances or joining existing treaties. This uncertainty has increased the importance and acceptance of democratic and peaceful India over China.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted ateditor.adu@gmail.com)
New Delhi. 22 December: Political history was being made with diplomacy,
when earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping met King Salman bin
Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia at Riyadh’s al-Yamamah Palace. The
camaraderie between the two leaders visible during this three-day visit, is
significant from several angles and has many connotations for the nations of
the world.
The timing of the visit is important
as the relations between Saudi Arabia and US are presently at their lowest ebb.
Xi was on a state visit at the invitation of King Salman and Saudi Arabia
accorded him a red-carpet welcome filled with pomp and show. On the other hand,
when US President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia in September this year, his
reception was very tepid. Is their more to read between the lines, as far as
the oil rich Saudi Arabia is all smiles with this new found friend China?
The two heads of state co-signed in
person the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between the People’s
Republic of China and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and agreed to take turns to
host biennial meetings between the heads of state of the two countries. They
also signed 34 bilateral agreements. But the story did not begin in Riyadh but
started earlier with the cross-border RMB payment which has played an important
role in boosting trade between China and Arab states and is also a telling
snapshot of trade and investment facilitation between both sides.
Over
the past decade, China-Arab states economic and trade cooperation has scaled
new heights. China is Arab states’ biggest trading partner. In 2021, China’s
FDI stock in Arab states hit $23 billion, a 2.6 times increase over 10 years.
The trade volume topped $330.3 billion, 1.5 times more than 10 years ago. In
the first three quarters of 2022, China-Arab states trade reached $319.295
billion, up 35.28 percent year on year and close to the total of the whole year
of 2021.
During his trip to Saudi Arabia,
President Xi Jinping expressed China’s hope to level up trade, investment and
financial cooperation and expand cooperation in such areas as e-commerce and
digital economy with Saudi Arabia. “We are confident that this visit will boost
sustained, solid progress in China-Saudi Arabia cooperation for mutual benefits
of higher quality and at a deeper level,” he said.
All this also rings a bell that the
cancellation of Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammad bin Salman’s
(MBS) planned visit to India in November because of “scheduling issues” was
genuine or Saudi Arabia did not want to annoy China with its advancement of
relationship with India.
What happened to the stable ties
between US and Saudi Arabia? The rift seemingly started when Joe Biden during
his election campaign in 2020 continuously criticised Saudi Arabia especially
MBS. In his election speech Biden threated that he would make Saudi Arabia a
“pariah” nation. These statements created deep anger and animosity in Riyadh,
particularly MBS took these statements against him. Saudi Arabia has also not
increased its oil production although Biden requested during his visit. US was
also constantly criticising Saudi Arabia on human rights issues.
Historically Riyadh has been close to
Washington DC as Saudi Arabia is biggest exporter of oil and US profoundly
depends on Saudi oil to fulfil its energy requirements. Riyadh is a key ally of
Washington in the Middle East. But slowly and steadily Riyadh is changing its
strategy. It wants to become member of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
and wants to inculcate close relations with China too. This visit by the Chinese
President is of significance.
The economic ties between Riyadh and
Beijing are strengthening rapidly. At present China is the biggest trading
partner of Saudi Arabia. In 2021 the bilateral trade between both these
countries was $87.3 billion and Chinese exports to Saudi Arabia were $30.3
billion, while Saudi Arabia exported goods worth $57 billion. The major export
from Riyadh was of Petroleum, Oils and Lubricants (POL). Riyadh is Beijing’s
top oil supplier as it accounts for 17% of Chinese oil imports. The recent
agreements were of about $30 billion and cover diverse fields including energy
agreements on hydrogen. These agreements are according to MBS aspiring economic
reform agenda part of vision 2030. These agreements cover varied fields
including green energy, information technology, petrochemical project, cloud
services, transport logistics, housing development, medical industries etc.
Riyadh desires that China should bring technology in Saudi Arabia while Beijing
wants that Riyadh should support its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Both countries are jointly working on
several major infrastructure projects. In last 20 years China invested about
$106 billion in Saudi Arabia and Riyadh has also invested large amount in
China. State-owned Saudi oil giant Aramco opened refineries in China and in
early 2022 decided to invest $10 billion in building a refinery and
petrochemical complex in China. Beijing is also constructing a high-speed
railway between Mecca and Medina.
The defence ties are also growing
between both the countries. Beijing is supplying drones, air defence system and
other weapon systems to Saudi Arabia. Both countries have performed joint
military exercises and there are reports that the defence cooperation between
both the countries would enhance. Saudi Arabia and China are also
planning to replace dollar with Yuan, if it materialises it would be a big
setback to US.
US
has strong military presence in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. It sells
weapons to these countries and have naval bases in Middle Eastern countries. US
presence in this unstable area assures the production of oil. Riyadh faces big
security threat from Iran as well as its surrogate Libya.
Saudi Arabia’s trade with US is
decreasing rapidly as Riyadh is diversifying its trade but its dependence on US
for its security would continue. Beijing and Moscow both have close relations
with Tehran while Iran is Saudi Arabia’s main foe. Hence it cannot depend on
China or Russia. Both Riyadh and Washington DC has close relationship and both
need each other for economic and regional stability. Saudi Arabia gets support
from the lone super power which has the most powerful defence forces.
China wants to enhance its influence
in Middle East as Russia has to exit from the area. Beijing which has close
relations with Iran may try to minimise the differences between Saudi Arabia
and Iran. Although it would be difficult as both countries view each other with
suspicion. The rift between Shia and Sunni has also considerably enhanced.
Analysts
claim that now Riyadh does not want to depend exclusively on US as Saudis
realised that US is not a reliable partner. US response was lukewarm when Shia
militia attacked Saudi Arabia’s main refinery. US support was half-hearted
against Iran and their Yemeni proxies when they threatened Saudi Arabia, while
US made a great fuss on human right violations in Saudi Arabia. Saudis also
mention that US left Afghanistan unprotected and within a very short time
Taliban captured Kabul.
Israel which is the closest ally of
US also became close to Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. Israel
can be helpful to Saudi Arabia to counter Iran. Saudi Arabia is the biggest
buyer of US armaments from a decade. In US Saudi relationship, security, oil,
and strategy are important and human rights may not be the decisive factor.
Hence China and Russia would not be a substitute of US in near future.
Nonetheless US has to understand the feeling and sentiments of Saudi monarchs.
In the current visit of Xi both countries
have signed bilateral agreements on IT sector while India has much more
expertise in IT sector but Saudi authorities preferred China more than India.
Delhi should also be cautious as China and Pakistan are all weather friends and
both have animosities against India. Pakistan has brotherly ties with Saudi
Arabia and several times when Pakistan was in trouble Riyadh rescued Islamabad
financially. At present Pakistan’s retired army chief General Raheel Sharif is
the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition
which is a 41-nation alliance of Muslim countries. The headquarter of the force
is in Riyadh and Saudi security forces also utilise the expertise of General
Sharif.
Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz
Sharif met MBS in Sharm El Sheikh Egypt before MBS postponed his visit to
India. In the meeting on the sidelines of the Conference of Parties (COP 27)
Sharif assured full cooperation from Pakistan and mentioned that both Saudi
Arabia and Pakistan being Muslim countries are very important for each other.
The
Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the President of the People’s Republic of China, Mr. Xi Jinping along the East
Lake, in Wuhan, China on April 28, 2018.
Delhi should be careful as its two
rivals are getting closer to Saudi Arabia with which India also has close
relations. India imports large quantity of oil from Saudi Arabia. About 1.54
million Indians are working in Saudi Arabia and they are sending precious
foreign exchange to India. Saudi Arabia conferred its highest civilian award to
Prime Minister Modi. MBS in his last visit to India in February 2019 announced an
investment of $100 billion in several fields including infrastructure, energy,
mining, agriculture etc. Saudi Arabia is second largest oil supplier to India.
China’s rising influence in Middle Eastern countries may create a security risk
to India as Beijing has already established a military base in Djibouti in
2017.
The larger picture appears that two
of India’s adversaries are coming closer to Saudi Arabia which is an important
source of energy as well as India’s strategic partner in West Asia. This axis
which appears innocuous at this juncture may prove difficult for Delhi at a
later stage.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based
strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and
member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Closeness Between Pakistan and Myanmar Under Chinese Guidance May be
Harmful to India
China is assisting Pakistan to
strengthen defence ties with Myanmar. Beijing wants to fulfil its agenda
through its proxy because there is an intense anti-China sentiment among the
people in Myanmar. Pakistan is delighted because Myanmar shares a border with
India through which Pakistan can infiltrate terrorists and supply weapons to
the insurgent groups in the North Eastern States. India needs to be cautious
The
military ties between the Pakistan army and Myanmar military junta are
increasing rapidly. China, which considers India as its prospective challenger,
is assisting Pakistan to strengthen defence cooperation with Myanmar. Pakistan,
which considers India as its enemy, is delighted to strengthen its defence ties
with the military junta of Myanmar as it feels that it has cultivated one more
friend in the region. Not only this Pakistan, which has waged a low-intensity
war against India, is also eager to inculcate friendship with the countries,
which share borders with India. Myanmar shares a land border of about 1600 km
with India, besides it, both countries also have a maritime boundary in the Bay
of Bengal. India’s four North Eastern States namely Arunachal Pradesh,
Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram share international borders with Myanmar. As
both countries have strong religious, linguistic, and ethnic ties hence there
is heavy traffic between both countries. The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI)
of Pakistan would try to exploit the traffic. There are reports that ISI was
funding, training, and supplying arms and ammunition to the insurgent groups of
North Eastern States. Not only this, ISI was also sending weapons and
infiltrating terrorists through these borders.
A Pakistani defence delegation
secretly visited the Myanmar defence industry complex near Yangon in October
and extended assistance in the maintenance of aircraft. Myanmar is using JF-17
jets, manufactured in China and assembled in Pakistan. These planes were
purchased from Pakistan
In October 2022, a high-level defence
delegation from Pakistan visited the Myanmar defence industry complex near
Yangon secretly. During the visit, the Pakistani delegation proposed that
Pakistan can extend assistance to the Myanmar army in the repair and
maintenance of aircraft. The visit of the Pakistani defence delegation was at
the behest of China as Myanmar is using JF-17 jets, which are manufactured in
China’s Chengdu Aerospace Cooperation and assembled in Pakistan Aeronautical
Complex although Islamabad claims that JF-17 was developed by both countries.
These planes were purchased from Pakistan. JF-17 has the capability of ground
attack as well as combat in the air. It can deliver bombs as well as
precision-guided munition such as smart bombs, smart munition and smart
weapons. These fighter planes suit Myanmar’s military regime as they have to
suppress indigenous dissension and agitations.
The visit of the defence delegation is
significant because, after the withdrawal of the US-led NATO troops from
Afghanistan, China is trying to enhance its influence in various countries,
especially in neighbouring countries, directly or through its proxies.
Pakistan’s police are also training
Myanmar police officers in mine disposal in Karachi. Eight officers of the Myanmar
police were trained during September 10-30 in Karachi in explosives and mine
disposal techniques.
A high-level defence delegation from
Pakistan also visited Myanmar in the first week of September 2021. The visit of
the delegation, headed by a brigadier, was not announced. The Pakistani
delegation reached Myanmar on September 1 and left the country on September 5
in 2021. During the visit, officers of both countries discussed the exchange of
advanced ordnance technology, aircraft repair and maintenance and naval
munitions. According to reports, now both countries are in the final stages of
discussion about the building of third-generation aircraft under licence.
After the withdrawal of the US-led NATO troops from
Afghanistan, China is trying to enhance its influence in various countries,
especially in neighbouring countries, directly or through its proxies
The relations between Pakistan and
Myanmar became tense when Myanmar evicted Rohingya Muslims forcibly. There are
reports that in 2018 Myanmar embassy in Pakistan spent a huge sum to provide
security to the embassy and its staff as there were reports that Islamic
extremists would be targeting Myanmar embassy personnel due to atrocities
committed on Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar. At that time, there were
demonstrations and protests in several cities of Pakistan against the Myanmar
government. Not only this, there were reports that ISI imparted weapon training
to Rohingya Muslims residing in Cox Bazar, Bangladesh. However, China which
wants to develop its influence in the world, especially in neighbouring
countries, pressed both countries to have cordial relations.
Min Aung Hlaing, a senior army general,
also visited Pakistan Aeronautical Complex in Kamra in 2015. Now Islamabad also
wants to inculcate friendly relations with Myanmar as Pakistan can export arms
and ammunition to Myanmar, which is facing several sanctions from the
democratic world.
China’s Special Envoy Sun Guoxiang also
visited Myanmar and met with senior military officials including General Min
Aung Hlaing. China and Pakistan both want to develop close relations with
military rulers as both these countries feel that the military would continue
ruling the country and democratic government would not come soon in Myanmar.
Hence Pakistan would enhance its defence ties with the military rulers of
Myanmar.
There is an intense anti-China feeling
among the masses in Myanmar hence Beijing wants that Islamabad imparts training
to Myanmar armed personnel. As Pakistan has also a large number of Chinese
weapons and platforms it can assist Myanmar in its maintenance, training, and
sale of spare parts. China is using Pakistan not only for arms export but also
wants to export other materials, which it is finding difficult to export due to
massive anti-China sentiments among the masses. Chinese state-owned companies
illicitly occupied the land of the farmers at the time of the implementation of
FDI in oil and gas projects in Myanmar. The oil and gas pipeline ran between
Kyauk Phyu in Rakhine state to Nam Kham, a town near China border. The Myanmar
masses feel that China is a supporter of military rulers hence the public has
attacked and destroyed the Chinese properties in Myanmar.
Pakistan’s police are training
Myanmar police officers in mine disposal in Karachi. Eight officers of the
Myanmar police were trained during September 10-30 in Karachi in explosives and
mine disposal techniques
China also does not want to export
armaments to Myanmar as it does not want to show that it is supporting the
military rulers who would be using these arms to suppress the democratic
forces. It would damage its international image.
There are reports that the Myanmar
military is planning to purchase 60- and 81-mm mortars, heavy machine guns and
M-79 grenade launchers, and would also acquire air-to-surface missiles from
Pakistan.
The report of the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) mentioned that China’s share of
arms export in the world market has dwindled from 5.5 to 5.2 per cent but the
reality is that now China is exporting arms through its proxy Pakistan. In
2020, Indian customs officials on the basis of intelligence detained a ship,
which was coming from Jiangyin Port in China and was going to Karachi. The ship
was carrying an autoclave, which can be used to launch ballistic missiles.
The analysts claim that Pakistan at the
behest of China is focusing beyond the export of military hardware to Myanmar,
which is ruled by the military junta. The ISI also wants to use ports built by
China in Myanmar and it wants to infiltrate Islamic terrorists through Myanmar
as Indian security forces have tightened the security on Indo-Pakistan borders.
Pakistan is getting assistance from Aye Ne Win who is the grandson of General
Ne Win and is close to ISI and Myanmar army rulers. The construction of the
China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which links China with Myanmar, is
going on with good speed. Chinese can use the land route as well as the sea
route through the naval base Sittwe against India.
There are reports that the Myanmar
military is planning to purchase 60- and 81-mm mortars, heavy machine guns and
M-79 grenade launchers, and would also acquire air-to-surface missiles from
Pakistan
Although China considers the USA its
enemy number one, it also knows that India is its opponent in the region. It
wants to encircle India through its neighbours and hence it is rendering all
types of assistance including military hardware to Myanmar. Beijing is
exploiting its natural resources as well as its strategic location.
At present, the world is involved in
the Russia-Ukraine war, and China taking advantage of it, is assisting the
military rulers of Myanmar sometimes directly but most of the time through its
proxy i.e., Pakistan. However, anti-China sentiments are increasing in Myanmar
and once a democratic regime is established in the country people may boycott
not only China but Pakistan too.
However, India should be cautious as
ISI would use Myanmar for infiltrating terrorists and supplying arms and
ammunition to terrorist outfits operating in India. Delhi is able to control
several secessionist groups operating in the North Eastern States. ISI would
certainly try to support them so that law and order deteriorate in these
states. China, which is developing ports and other infrastructure in Myanmar,
may also use them against India if needed. At present, Indian security planners
are worried because of the nexus between China and Pakistan, the situation
would be more dangerous if Myanmar also joins China and Pakistan against India.
-The writer is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and
Life member of United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar
Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article
are solely the author’s.
Should India worry over
growing Russia China relations ?
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 09 August 2022. Some friendships bring cheer and some bring
fear is an old adage but when two powers get near, there are many observers who
do not find it dear. The growing Russia-China comradeship is an example of this
kind, where relationship is strengthening in all fields at an alarming rate.
Definitely the Russia-Ukraine war and the sanctions imposed by the west on
Russia, have a great role to play in this developing rapport.
The North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) under the leadership of United States is sending large
supplies of arms, ammunition and financial assistance to Ukraine. Russia once a
super power, is finding it difficult to conclusively defeat Ukraine because of
western assistance, thereby making its leanings towards China evident, which is
not only the second largest economy but a major military power.
Recently during the joint military
drill Russia and China sent a stern message by sending bombers near Japan at
the time when it was hosting QUAD summit, India was a part of this. Russian
TU-95 bombers and Chinese Xian H-6 jets not only participated in the exercise
but were flown near Japan. By flying bombers near Japan when President Biden
was attending QUAD meeting, China retorted to US President’s utterances about
defending Taiwan.
At present Russia needs China to curb
NATO’s expansion near its borders, while China needs Russian support in
enlargement of its influence in Asia-Pacific region. China also wants to
restrain India, as according to an analysis; India is poised to overtake USA in
2050 and post that China too.
QUAD was constituted to counter
China’s aggressive postures, however, in case of war between China and Quad, India
will have to side with QUAD while Russia would side China. Age old India Russia
friendship may not succeed in preventing Russia from abandoning India but China
has much more to offer Russia in comparison to India.
In past Delhi had strong defence ties
with Russia however with passage of time India is also diversifying its import
of arms purchases to other geographical regions. Russia is India’s biggest arms
supplier since 1970s and at present more than 60% of India’s military equipment
and spare parts come from Russia. Large number of India’s license-based defence
manufacturing is also because of Russia. Although Russia is still the largest
defence equipment supplier to India but with its policy of not putting all eggs
in the same basket it has expanded to purchasing from US, Israel and other
European countries thereby decreasing Russia’s market share. Moscow has also
started exporting armaments to India’s adversary Pakistan. Recently India also
requested Japan to enhance defence cooperation in different fields including
hi-tech defence production.
In view of Chinese aggressive
behaviour India is leaning more and more towards US. Recently after meeting
President Biden, Prime Minister Modi agreed to join the 34 nation Combined
Military Forces (CMF) in Bahrain as an associate member.
A look at the Russia-China front
shows that the pipeline which will supply gas from Siberia to Shanghai is in
its final stages and would be very useful for Russia as European Union has
threatened to cut gas purchases from Russia. Beijing also wants to diversify
its energy sources. China is exporting microchips, electronic components, and
military equipment to Russia in violation of US sanctions. The quantity of
export of aluminium oxide which is used in production of weapons is also
considerably increased. These and other exports from China are keeping Russian
weapon industry running.
Policy planners in Delhi expect that Russia may delay the supply of weapons as
well as spare parts partially because of western sanctions and partially
because of Russia-Ukraine war. Supply of S-400 Triumf advanced surface to air
missile defence system, second regiment is expected to be delayed for few
months. The production of 6.1 lakh AK-203 assault rifles is also delayed. The
upgrade of about 60 MiG fighters of Indian Air Force to the level of MiG-29 UPG
level through Russian components is also delayed. Few observers give credit of
this delay to invisible but palpable Chinese pressure on Russia. It is a cause
of concern to India for at present Russia needs China more than China needs
Russia.
The Chinese custom data indicates
that bilateral trade between Russia and China last year was record $146.9
billion. Russia expects that soon the figure would reach $200 billion. Mineral
rich Russia supplied oil, gas, coal, and other agricultural products. Reports
suggest that China is rendering financial and economic assistance to Russia in
the current war with Ukraine.
Nevertheless, political pundits claim that China would not like to strain its
relations with Europe because of Russia. China’s trade with Britain and Europe
is about 10 times more that China Russia trade. Russia wants to maintain its
sway over Central Asia while China is encroaching that area through economic
activities and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Russia also wants to exploit
vast mineral resources of Arctic but needs Chinese financial assistance however
Moscow is suspicious about Chinese intentions. Russia is also unhappy as its
wood is smuggled to Chinese factories located at the borders.
The strengthening ties between Russia
and China are worrisome for India. China which considers India as its
prospective challenger with heightened border disputes, may like to pressurise
Russia to stop defence assistance to India. However, Delhi and Moscow have old
defence ties and the relations have survived many complex situations. Indian
market is important for Russian export. India purchased about 28% of total
Russian defence exports between 2017 and 2021. Between 2011 to 2021 Russia sold
arms worth $ 22.8 billion to India. Delhi is purchasing oil from Moscow when it
is fighting the sanctions imposed by West.
At present both Russia and China need
each other but once Ukraine crisis is over the deep differences between Russia
and China would dominate their relations. It would be difficult for Russia to
accept the role of junior partner of China and vice versa. The rising Russia
China friendship has put India in a difficult situation. Now India cannot trust
completely on Russia for arms supply in case of war with China, hence India has
to be friendly with US but Delhi does not want to leave Russia and adhere to
all the sanctions put forward by Western powers. India joined QUAD to counter
China’s aggressive designs. Hence after Ukraine war India has to make sincere
efforts to gain the confidence of US and Europe which it lost because of not
implementing the sanctions on Russia.
At present China is aggressively
inculcating close relationship with small Pacific island nations through
Confucius Institutes. China intends to train their security personnel,
establish free trade areas, provide them internet networks, and strengthen
cultural relations. A 20 members Chinese delegation led by Foreign Minister
Wang Yi toured 10 Pacific countries to boost the relationship. Few of these
Pacific nations have close relationship with US and have large population of
Indian origin. China is taking full advantage of rule based democratic system
of US and India and has become the biggest exporter to both the countries. Now
both US and India want to change the balance of trade which is excessively in
Chinese favour. India China rivalry has also damaged BRICS (Brazil, Russia,
India, and China). In nutshell India should not forget 1962 when Moscow was of
little assistance. India should develop capability to face aggressive China, as
in foreign relations no body is a permanent friend or foe.
It is heartening to see that under
‘Make in India’ programme India is planning to produce more arms and ammunition
indigenously. However, production of armaments takes time and require large sum
of money so India should remain friendly with both US led NATO forces as well
as with Russia.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based
strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and
member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted
at editor.adu@gmail.com).
Will Pakistan surrender
Gilgit-Baltistan to China in lieu of mounting debt?
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 07 August 2022. Chairman of Karakoram National
Movement, Mumtaz Nagri stated in an interview to a newspaper that
Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) which is part of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir is an isolated
and neglected area. He claims that Pakistan may lease out GB to China as
Islamabad would fail to repay the Chinses loan. He also demanded that residents
of GB should not be afraid of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and be prepared
to go to jail.
At present Pakistan’s economy is on ventilator and
according to reports as of March 2022 Pakistan’s public debt was USD 248.7 billion
which is 80.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The domestic debt was
Rupees 28 trillion while external debt was $ 86.4 billion. Pakistan’s foreign
reserve is dwindled to $ nine billion, it wants to take loan from International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and recently IMF has signed preliminary agreement with
Islamabad to revive $ six billion bailout package. But IMF loan comes with
stringent conditions, IMF stipulations include that Pakistan should share terms
and conditions of Chinese loan taken for completion of China Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) and IMF money cannot be used in Chinese projects. IMF loan
cannot be used in repaying Chinese debt. It would be difficult for Pakistan to
adhere to these stipulations.
Nonetheless Beijing is Islamabad’s biggest
bilateral creditor. Chinese government outstanding loan is $14.5 billion
besides this loan Pakistan has also taken loan from government owned Chinese
banks as well as from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
Although it is difficult to mention all the Chinese loan but the analysts claim
that Chinese debt is about $24 billion which is about 30 percent of total
Pakistani external debt.
The residents of GB claim that Pakistan has no
resources to repay the debt hence it would lease out GB to China. Beijing would
utilise GB as it wants to expand itself in South Asia. Not only this China is
the largest importer of agricultural products, would utlise arable land,
natural resources, and vast water resources of GB. China needs clean water from
glaciers for manufacturing semiconductors. Semiconductors are used in mobile
phones, cars, fighter jets, ships etc. China wants to control Shaksgam valley
which has more than 240 glaciers. GB has second highest peak i.e. K-2 and has
ancient Buddhist sculptures.
Gilgit, Skardu, Diamer, Astore, Ghanche, Ghizer and
Hunza-Nagar consist of GB. The total area of GB is around 72,496 KMs which is
more than five times of present POK. Under Karachi Agreement of April 1949 Pak
government forcibly got the control of GB and split them from POK. It also
gifted Sakshgam Valley (5,180 Sq. KMs) to China in 1963. Pakistan with ulterior
motive, projects GB as a separate region and not as a part of POK.
In 1974 Pakistan abolished state subject rule in GB
so that Sunni Muslims from Pakistan can settle there. According to a report
originally the ratio was of 1:4 but in 2019 the ratio was changed to 3:4.
Originally the Shia population was 68 percent now it is 41 percent only. Sunni
terrorist groups like Sipah-i-Sahaba, Harkat-ul-Mujahiddin, Lashkar-e-Taiba,
and Jaish-e-Mohammad have established terrorist camps in GB and are killing
Shias.
China also wants that more Punjabis and Sunni
Muslims should settle in this area, so that they get more support for the CPEC.
China is also insisting that GB should be given a status of an independent
province. Pakistan has already given agricultural land to Chinese companies so
that they can build infrastructure projects. Hundreds of Chinese are living in
GB and are exploiting the natural resources of the area under the garb of
developing infrastructure. China intends to develop Gawadar, Jiwani, Sonmiani,
Pasni and Ormara ports so that it can increase its influence in Indian Ocean.
Legally GB is part of Jammu & Kashmir hence it
is part of India and Pakistan has no right to lease it to China or any other
country. In case Islamabad gives GB to China on lease, Government of India has
the right to challenge this decision in the International Court of Justice.
Besides it Islamabad has to face stiff resistance
from United States and it would become difficult for Pakistan to get loan from
IMF or World Bank. The residents of GB would also resist Chinese occupation
although at present the federal government had given very less rights to them.
The local population is against CPEC because it feels that China is exploiting
their mineral resources and CPEC related projects are not generating employment
to locals.
The population of GB is fast dwindling because
there is no job, scarcity of everything including food items, electricity only
for limited time and primitive living conditions. Hence the residents are
migrating to other areas within or outside the country. The suicide rate in GB
is highest in Pakistan.
United States is also keeping eye on GB as last
time when it withdrew from Afghanistan, 9/11 occurred hence this time although
US withdrew from Afghanistan but it is still keeping an eye on it. Hence GB can
be useful for US also.
Pakistan wants to incorporate GB in the federal
system and declare it as the fifth province. Previously it was known as
Northern areas and only in 2009 it was allowed to constitute its assembly but
it is governed from Islamabad and has no power to take decisions.
China wants to control GB and its dry port Sost,
which is a last town inside Pakistan on Karakoram Highway before Chinese
border. It is important because all traffic crossing Pakistan China border has
to pass through this town.
The rising insurgency in Balochistan has restricted
progress of CPEC. Now China on one hand is assisting Pakistani forces in
curbing Balochistan uprising and on the other hand forcing Pakistan government,
so that the work on CPEC continue in GB. China is also pressing Islamabad to
declare GB as fifth province, so that it can be controlled better. However,
there were large scale protests in GB and all opposition political parties not
only supported the protests but became part of it.
Islamabad is issuing mining licenses to
non-residents which is resented by the locals of GB. The issue of licenses to
non-locals have increased the loot of natural resources of GB especially by
Chinese companies.
Nawaz Khan Naji founder of the Balwaristan National
Front (BNF) also stated that “Pakistan occupied our land in 1947 and since then
no development has been done here”. He also claimed that elections are farce.
Pakistan security forces use draconian anti-terror laws to ruthlessly suppress
the peaceful protests and demonstrations.
The residents also claim that making GB as fifth
province would not bring any progress in the region as Balochistan which is one
province of Pakistan is underdeveloped with highest illiteracy rate. The people
of GB also claim that their counter parts residing in India are leading much
better lives and enjoying the freedom and equality under Indian constitution.
India, USA, and other countries should remain
vigilant so that Pakistan does not lease out GB to China as it would be
dangerous not only for India but for the free world. However, it does not mean
that the world waive Pakistan’s loan or render more financial assistance.
Islamabad is surviving on foreign assistance and also utilising it for
increasing terrorist activities all over the world especially against India.
The IMF should give loan with stringent stipulations and Islamabad must fulfil
the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) conditions. Pakistan watchers
point out that country’s economy is ruined but the political leaders, senior
army officers have no dearth of money. The fundamentalism and extremism have
derelict the country.
China which considers India as its potential
adversary has exploited the brutish desire of Islamabad to destroy India.
Beijing assisted Islamabad which has waged a low intensity war against India
and in the process, Pakistan devastated itself. The democratic as well as
Muslim world must press Pakistan to abandon terrorism and the time, money and
energy consumed in spreading terrorism in other countries especially in India
should be utilised in the development of the country.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of United
Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for
Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s.
He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
New Delhi. 25 June
2022. A recent statement of US Army’s Pacific Commander
General Charles A Flynn that China is building defence infrastructure on
Indo-China border in Ladakh area is “alarming”. The visiting general also
remarked that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is taking “destabilising and
corrosive” actions in the Indo-Pacific region. Nonetheless the relationship
between India and United States is working as a “counterweight” to Chinese
aggressive designs.
As expected,
Chinese reaction was very stringent and criticised General Flynn. At a regular
press conference Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson alleged that US is
trying “to fan the flame and drive a wedge between the two countries. This is
disgraceful.” The Chinese spokesperson also mentioned that India and China are capable
and have will to solve the border issue through “dialogue and consultation”.
Indian Ministry of
External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson also clarified that India is closely
monitoring the development of infrastructure by Chinese forces on the borders. MEA
spokesperson also mentioned that “The government is committed to and takes all
adequate and appropriate measures to safeguard territorial integrity and
sovereignty as the developments in recent years have clearly demonstrated,”.
As two years are
gone by since the violent clash occurred in eastern Ladakh near Pangong Lake in
Ladakh and the Tibet Autonomous Region between Indian and Chinese troops, there
have been 15 rounds of talks between military generals, National Security
Advisors and Foreign Ministers of both countries have also met but tension
exists. The negotiations did result into the disengagement process occurring on
the banks of Pangong lake and in the Gogra area, but both sides are still with
about 50,000 troops near the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
About a month back
Chinese built one more bridge in Pangong Tso area. The second bridge would be
helpful in deploying the troops swiftly. Besides the strategically important
bridge Chinese have also constructed roads and residential units in this area.
General Manoj
Pandey Chief of the Indian Army has very rightly pointed out that China wants
to keep the border issue “alive”. Although India insists that border issue
should be sorted out first but China maintains that both countries should keep
the border issue on the back burner and continue with trade and other issues.
India maintains
that the existing border agreements should be honoured while China claims for
the need for mutual and equal security. India is a big market for China and
Beijing has lot of trade surplus with India. China also mentions “We hope India
will provide a fair, just, and non-discriminatory business environment for
Chinese companies, conduct investigation, and law enforcement in accordance
with laws and regulations so as to increase the confidence of global
investors”.
There are reports
that Indian authorities would take action against two Chinese firms. In past
India banned about 200 mobile applications including Tik Tok. Recently the
Income Tax department conducted searches in more than 20 Chinese companies
premises. The Enforcement Directorate (ED) also seized more than 5000 crore
from Xiaomi’s bank accounts because of flouting foreign exchange rules. In
nutshell India is giving a stern message to Chinese companies working in India
that they must follow the rules and regulations. There are reports that few
Chinese companies used dubious means in getting the contracts in neighbouring
countries.
China also does not
want strengthening of India US relations. Recently both US and Indian forces
agreed for an exercise at 9,000 to 10,000 feet from sea level.
The recently
released US intelligence community report also mentions that China is the
greatest threat to Washington and its allies. Beijing alleges that US and its
allies are continuously taking economic measures which are against China. Both
Republican and Democratic parties exercise policies which are against Chinese
interest. China has inculcated capabilities so that it can hit different US
military bases in the area. US has bases in Japan, Korea, and Diego Garcia.
The 24th round of
Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border
Affairs (WMCC) was held virtually and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also
visited India in March 2022. It indicates that India is keeping a watchful eyes
on the border situation.
Some analysts also
claim that China attacked India in Galwan area with the intention to check
India which is rising speedily. Beijing also wanted to show its military
strength to Delhi. Few Chinese watchers feel that China wants India to remain away
from US, join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Delhi should accept
Chinese supremacy as the sole leader in the region.
Noticeably a chunk
of experts assert that Beijing has global aspirations, wants to control Indian
Ocean Region and for this close relations with India is necessary.
Quite a few
perceive that Galwan attack happened because China was upset with India
developing infrastructure at the borders. China also did not like the
revocation of Article 370 from Kashmir and attacked Galwan to show solidarity
with Pakistan. Some arguably state that China was facing economic crisis and Xi
Jinping wanted to divert public attention from day-to-day scarcities. Critics
also blame India for retaliating in Galwan to distract public attention from escalating
problems. Each to his or her own thought.
China also wanted
India’s support as competition grew between Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)
and BRI. Chinese realised that FOIP would prevent its industrial growth and may
isolate the country. Chinese allege that through FOIP and Quad United States,
Japan, Australia, and other western powers want to raise India as a
counterpoise against China.
But China
understands that India follows an independent foreign policy and would not work
subservient to US and without India there would be no Indo-Pacific. Secondly
India is the biggest market for Chinese goods in vicinity. Thirdly geography of
the subcontinent is such that most of the South Asian countries are neither
connected with China nor connected with each other. In most of the cases these
countries have way through India. Not only this most of the South Asian nations
have some type of dependency on India.
On an international arena Delhi has close ties
with many important countries like USA, UK, France, Japan, and Russia.
Chinese strategists
mention that Beijing would like to improve relations with India and would
stress more on common grounds instead of emphasising on destabilising factors.
Beijing would also try to develop differences between India and other three
members of Quad. China would inspire India to continue following non-alignment
in its foreign policy. China in the pursuit of this policy may help India in
joining the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) if India agrees to cooperate on BRI.
The intelligence
report as well as China experts feel that Beijing would continue harassing
India as well as other countries located near South China Sea. Not only this
China would continue establishing new bases in strategically located countries.
Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is operating a military base in
Djibouti which is located in the Horn of Africa. There are also reports that
China is secretly constructing naval base in Cambodia which indicates that
Beijing wants to become a global power very soon.
The China watchers
are clear that China would not like to have an all-out war with India but would
continue to pressurise India. Beijing desires that Delhi should join China in
opposing US. In fact, China wants to use India for its dominance in Asia, wants
to mitigate US influence and become the super power.
But India would not
accept the hegemony of China. India is not only strengthening its defence
forces and improving infrastructure at Sino-Indian borders, it is also signing
pacts with other countries. Besides Quad recently India and Vietnam also signed
two documents including a vision document to enhance the “scope and scale” of
defence ties by 2030. Both countries also inked a military logistics support
under which both the countries can use other country’s bases for repair and
replenishment of supplies.
India should also
be careful, as US is realising that China is threatening its lone super power
status and would like to wane China. Russia is already weakened because of
Ukraine war hence US would like to use Taiwan to weaken China and prepare India
to counter China. Indian policy makers should view US statements, analysis, and
reports with this angle also. In nutshell China would continue harassing India
hence India must strengthen itself to keep this perpetual foe at bay.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based
strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely
the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
New Delhi. May 2022. An emergency meeting was held
recently in which the senior officers of Chinese Finance Ministry and CEOs of
Chinese and international banks, discussed how to protect Chinese overseas
assets in case United States puts sanctions against China. The meeting have
alarmed the world especially Taiwan and its neighbouring countries. Taiwan
became worried as China took practical lessons as US and the Western world
seized Russian assets in their countries after Moscow action in Ukraine.
Chinese administration has extended support to Russia in its war with
Ukraine but Chinese banks and companies took necessary precautions while
conducting business with Russian companies so that US does not impose sanctions
on China also. In the meeting the Chinese representatives had not specified any
reason but the people present in the meeting visualised that China must be
contemplating, if it attacks Taiwan and US and its allies put sanctions, how
China can mitigates its effects.
China claims Taiwan as its part and criticises US for having official
relations with Taiwan as it violates China’s sovereignty and territorial
integrity. Not only this in last week of April Chinese Embassy in Washington DC
clarified that the situation between Ukraine and Taiwan are distinct and US
endeavour to create a similarity, is with ulterior motive to mislead the world.
The Chinese embassy also claimed that US administration is utilizing Taiwan
issue to repress China. US is a biggest source of arms supply to Taiwan. In
2021 Taiwan purchased armament worth $750 million while in 2022 it has already
purchased arms worth $ 195 million which includes Patriot Air defence system.
Taiwan as precautionary measures is purchasing more and more armaments
from US. Taiwanese army is planning to extend a runway on disputed island
namely Taiping which is located in South China Sea. The runway would be
extended so that it can accommodate fighter jets also. The disputed island
which is in possession of Taiwan is claimed by China, Vietnam, and Philippines.
In a virtual dialogue between President Biden and President Xi Jinping
on 18 March, the issue of Taiwan was also discussed. The China watchers claim
that China is still assessing the reactions and repercussions of the Russia
Ukraine war. When Taiwan enhanced its alarm level, China made it clear that
there is vast difference between Ukraine and Taiwan.
Courtesy : newsin24
Few months before Russian attack on Ukraine, Teaching, Research, and
International Policy (TRIP) Project at William & Mary’s Global Research
Institute conducted surveys three times about the possibilities of Russian
attack on Ukraine and Chinese attack on Taiwan. All the three surveys mentioned
that the possibilities of Chinese attack on Taiwan is much less in comparison
to the Russian attack on Ukraine. The surveys also mentioned that US would
increase the supply of weapons but would not involve in military operations
against China.
The people to people contact between Taiwan and China is increasing. At
present about one million Taiwanese live in China and Taiwanese Companies have
invested approximately $60 billion in China. Taiwanese run their factories in
China and they are worried about their companies and investments in China in
case of Chinese invasion in Taiwan. However, majority of Taiwanese are against
the increasing influence of China in Taiwan and in 2014 the young Taiwanese
made a protest under “Sunflower Movement” against the expanding influence of
China. The latest polls also suggest that the majority public of Taiwan
supports the present ruling party The Democratic Progressive Party’s approach
of preserving the sovereignty of the country. In 2020 election the current
president Tsai Ing-wen got outstanding 8.2. million votes which indicates that
the majority prefers to maintain Taiwan’s sovereignty. The support for Taiwan
sovereignty enhanced after seeing Chinese atrocities in Hong Kong. The KMT (The
Kuomintang) party supports Taiwan’s re-unification with China.
The Chinese observers also feel that the ineffectual support of US and
Western countries to Ukraine may embolden China to take military action against
Taiwan. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act mentions that US will support the
capability of Taiwan to defend itself but does not declare that US would
militarily intervene if China attacks. It would be the decision of President of
US. In 1979 there was a vast difference in the military might of US and China
but China has enhanced its economic as well as military power. Now the
difference between the strength of US and China is minimising and it may
embolden China to invade Taiwan. There is an ambiguity about the US assistance
to Taiwan and when President Biden mentioned that US would help Taiwan in case
of Chinese attack the State Office spokesperson made it clear that there is no
change in US policy about Taiwan. US has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan
but sells arms and ammunition to Taiwan.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen
reviews a Marine Corps battalion in Kaohsiung in July 2020 (Official Photo by
Wang Yu Ching / Office of the Taiwanese President)
China claims Taiwan as its province while Taipei mentions that it is a
sovereign country with viable democracy and a constitution. In past it was
recognised by several countries but as the influence of China is enhancing now
only 15 countries diplomatically recognise Republic of China (Taiwan). The
analysts also mention that it would not be easy for China to take over Taiwan
as the country has 300,000 troops and it can mobilise about 450,000 troops
against invasion. As Taiwanese troops would be on home turf hence Chinese would
need about 1.2 million army to defeat them. Both countries have plenty of lethal
weapons including long-range missiles. Hence large number of ships, strategic
targets would be destroyed. US and allies would supply arms and ammunition
generously as they want to weaken China which has emerged as a major power and
challenging the super power status of US.
Chinese effort of annexation of Taiwan would be harmful for China also.
Chinese soldiers have not fought a war since long and when dead bodies would
start pouring the public opinion would become against President Xi Jinping. Not
only this even after capture of Taiwan the problem would continue as majority
of 24 million people of Taiwan are against the communist regime. Hence
President Xi. Jinping may be happy if China captures Taiwan but may not attack
in near future. The wild threats in Chinese media and statements of Chinese
leaders may be only for public consumption and to assess the world opinion.
Chinese observers feel that Xi Jinping is a shrewd politician hence he
would not attack Taiwan but wait for its merger peacefully. Xi is 68 years old
hence he can wait for few years more for the merger of Taiwan. However Chinese
fighter planes would continue intruding Taiwanese territory to show to the
world that Taiwan is part of China. Chinese authorities would assess the loss
of men and damage of its economy before taking any military action against
Taiwan. However, in 2024 Communist Party of China would elect its leader and
China claims that in 2027 its army would be fully modernised and can be equal
to US armed forces. China may try to annex Taiwan in these years.
Meanwhile China would continue with its disinformation campaign, would
escalate cyberattacks and would try to punish Taiwan economically.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United
Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
China’s neo-colonialism of
Africa: A global concern
Courtesy : thehabarinetwork.com
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 05 April 2022. When the sun set on colonialism
of the British empire, the world never realised that a sun was rising in the
east which would in the century to come, become the biggest coloniser and
neo-colonialism started by it would have its tentacles spread far and wide. Not
even the far-off continent of Africa has been spared. In fact, Africa is caught
so badly in China’s neo-colonialism web that it definitely will find it
difficult to get out of this trap.
The total bilateral trade between Africa and China
in 2021 was $254.3 billion which is heavily in favour of China. It was about
35.3 percent more than 2020. China is biggest investor in Africa while United
States is second and France and Turkey are 3rd and 4th respectively. The Xinhua
News Agency claimed that China is creating 18,562 jobs every year from last ten
years in the continent. China is developing infrastructure, telecommunication,
energy, and agriculture sectors.
China achieved considerable success in Africa and
emerged as an important aid donor from Sudan to South Africa and inculcated
military relationship with many countries in African continent, which is the
second largest continent after Asia. China, which eyes on the vast mineral
resources of African continent and understands the strategic significance of
it, is the biggest trading partner of the continent.
For more than 30 years Chinese Foreign Minister
made a practice of visiting Africa at the beginning of the year. In January
2022 Wang Yi Foreign Minister of China visited Eritrea, Kenya, and Comoros. He
also included Maldives and Sri Lanka in the tour. China’s first major project
in Africa was 1,860-km long Tanzania-Zambia railway in the 1970s. The railway
line was important as besides carrying passengers it was also used for
transporting ore from Zambian copper mines to Dar-es-Salam port in Tanzania.
Wang has already visited 35 countries out of a total of 54 countries in African
continent.
China has constituted the Forum on China-Africa
Cooperation (FOCAC) which is an official forum between the People’s Republic of
China and all countries of African continent excluding Eswatini (Swaziland) as
it maintains relations with Taiwan. The first summit of FOCAC was held in
November 2006 while the third and latest summit was also held in September
2018, both summits were held in Beijing. The triennial ministerial conference
of the FOCAC was held in December 2021 in Dakar, Senegal. During the visit Wang
also visited Ethiopia and showed solidarity with Abiy Ahmed Prime Minister who
was facing civil war in Tigray, which is allegedly supported by external forces
including USA. China has built an oil terminal at Mombasa and also constructing
a railway line from Nairobi to Mombasa under its Belt and Road Initiatives
(BRI).
Courtesy :willnigeria.com
Africa is important for Beijing as one third of its
oil and 20 percent of its cotton comes from Africa. The mineral rich Africa has
manganese in abundance which is used in the production of steel. Africa has lot
of coltan, carbonatites etc. Chinese companies are also involved in export of these
minerals world over.
China has also appointed Xue Bing as a special
envoy for the Horn of Africa which is strategically significant. In Horn of
Africa Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Kenya are located and China
has lot of investment and a naval base in Djibouti. It is near a French and
American base and is located on one of the world’s main shipping route. China
has also constructed a railway line which connects Djibouti and Addis Ababa.
China has emerged as a significant investor and
surpassed USA in 2014. In 2003 China’s investment in Africa was $490 million
while in 2020 it became 43.4 billion. It reached $46.1 billion in 2018. Chinese
main investments are in South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola,
Ethiopia, and Zambia. The investments are mainly in infrastructure construction
projects, mining, transport, services, and research projects. According to
rough estimates Chinese companies signed 1,141 loan agreements and gave loan
worth $153 billion between 2000 to 2019.
There is acute rivalry between USA and China in
Africa as the tension with both economic giants is increasing at several places
including Indo-Pacific, Ukraine etc. US is realising that China is mitigating
the US influence and inculcated more friends in Africa. Beijing is also
constructing roads, ports, railways, and other infrastructure projects under
BRI.
In January 2022 China issued an African Policy
Paper which details Chinese policy towards Africa and the methods to achieve
it. The paper mentions that China has established diplomatic relations with 47
African countries and is committed to the overall progress of the continent.
China emphasises that infrastructure development is
necessary, although Western countries developed the infrastructure but it was
with the object of exploiting the natural resources of the continent. At
present Africa needs infrastructure development and China is best equipped to
develop the same. China has constructed several important projects while few
are under development including Coastal Railway in Nigeria,
Addis-Ababa-Djibouti Railway and mega port and economic zone at Bagamoyo.
The Chinese lay debt-trap under the guise of big
infrastructure development projects under BRI. The under developed nations fall
in the trap as they want to achieve a better economic future. China gives them
massive debt which they fail to repay. Most of the times terms and conditions
of the contract which are immensely in favour of China do not come in public
domain. African countries have started facing problems in repaying the loan.
The cost of Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway has increased so much that it became
nearly a quarter of Ethiopia’s budget of 2016. Not only this the operating cost
of the railways’ is $ 70 million per year while in 2019 it earned $40 million
only. Nigeria was forced to renegotiate with Chinese companies as it was unable
to repay the debt. The cost of Railway line from Mombasa to Nairobi has already
became four times of the previous budget.
The Chinese debt on African countries has risen to
US$ 145 billion and the debt repayment in 2022 is $8 billion. The repayment
burden is so much that according to reports 18 countries are renegotiating with
China to reschedule the debt payment. Several countries of the world including
Madagascar, Maldives, Tajikistan, Sri Lanka are finding it difficult to repay
Chinese loan. Condition of Pakistan is also pitiable and its economy is
shattered. Prime Minister Imran Khan criticised China Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC) and disclosed its terms and conditions which was not liked by Chinese
and now Imran Khan is on his way out.
African continent is also important politically as
it has 54 countries out of which 53 recognise China. Hence besides economy
Africa is important in Global strategy of Beijing. All 54 countries have vote
in United Nations General Assembly hence Chinese citizens become head of
several U.N. organisations like United Nations Industrial Development
Organisation (UNIDO), Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), International
Telecommunication Union (ITU), International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
etc. In this way China is making a base of supporters to regain its lost glory.
Large
number of Chinese businessmen, technicians and Chinese companies had gone in
different parts of African countries and strengthened ties between African
continent and China. The Chinese are assisting Africans in agriculture
modernization, infrastructure development, industrialisation, poverty
reduction, public welfare etc.
But China is giving loan, developing infrastructure all in self-interest.
Mostly China develops infrastructure projects such as Railways, ports, roads
etc so that it can transport the minerals to China. Beijing conveys
clandestinely that they are developing infrastructure but in return these
countries have to share the mineral wealth and needs their support in BRI as
well as in international forums. Not only this when the countries are unable to
pay loan China would occupy their ports, arable land, roads and even the
cities. Chinese debt trap is becoming more and more vicious, besides African
countries several other under-developed countries would also suffer hence all
should be cautious. Not only this, even the developed world should also try to
counter Chinese strategy otherwise China would become so powerful that it would
become uncontrollable
·India
gives terse message to China through its visiting Foreign Minister
By Sangeeta Saxena
New Delhi. 28 March 2022. When the world was looking towards
Kiev and the cynosure of all eyes was Russia-Ukraine conflict, India had a
surprise visitor, one who attracted eyeballs in the region and made India
cautious. And this unannounced but not unknown visitor was Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang Yi, who came to India at 7.45 p.m. on 24th March from Afghanistan
on an unannounced visit and left the country around 3 pm next day.
India was naturally cautious but evidently annoyed
over his statement on Kashmir in Pakistan , prior coming to India. Indian
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar showed India’s displeasure on Wang’s
statement in OIC meeting on Kashmir and mentioned that China should have “an
independent policy in respect of India, and not allow its policies to be
influenced by other countries and other relationships.”
India adopted a tough posture and gave a terse
message to the visiting Minister, who also holds the rank of State Councillor.
He wanted to meet Prime Minister Modi but the government politely turned down
the request, mentioning that the prime minister is scheduled to visit Lucknow
to attend the swearing in ceremony of Chief Minister of U.P. Yogi Aditya Nath.
It was quite a stringent rebuff to Wang Yi who also visited Pakistan in this
visit. In Islamabad he attended the OIC Conference and stated that “On Kashmir,
we have heard again today the calls of many of our Islamic friends. And China
shares the same hope” The Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Arindam Bagchi
stated that Kashmir is an internal matter of India and “Other countries
including China have no locus standi to comment. They should note that India
refrains from public judgement of their internal issues.”
Wang Yi met National Security Advisor Ajit Doval,
for an hour, on 25 March, however Doval made it clear that the restoration of
peace in the border areas is essential to develop mutual trust. NSA mentioned
that there should be complete troops withdrawal from the conflict areas in
eastern Ladakh and the obstacles in path of negotiations should be removed.
Doval also stressed that the present tense situation in eastern Ladakh is not
good for both the countries. NSA emphasised the need of diplomatic and
military communications between both the countries as it is essential for
establishment of peace and tranquillity. Doval insisted that the outstanding issues
should be resolved at an early date.
The visiting Foreign minister invited Doval to
visit China. The NSA answered positively but mentioned that the visit would be
good if it is made after solving immediate issues. Both Doval and Wang are the
special representatives for the boundary negotiations between India and China
and they had long telephonic discussions on the border issues in 2020.
In May 2020 Chinese forces intruded in Indian
territory and violent clashes occurred at Galwan river valley in which 20 Indian
soldiers including a Colonel were martyred. Although Chinese had not disclosed
the right figures but according to media about 40 Chinese soldiers were also
killed in this battle. The senior military officers of India and China had 15
rounds of talks to settle the disputes but matter could not be resolved so
far. At present both sides have stationed large number of troops and are
developing the infrastructure at the borders.
Although Wang Yi talked about the friendship
between both the countries but did not invite India to attend a meeting on
Afghanistan scheduled to be held in Beijing later in March. The visiting
Chinese dignitary had about three hours meeting with External Affairs Minister
Jaishankar. Both the ministers discussed several issues including Afghanistan,
Ukraine etc. The issues pertaining to education, travel, and trade were also
discussed. In the meeting Indian foreign minister made it clear that the
relations between both the countries became “disturbed as a result of Chinese
actions since April 2020.” Jaishankar also pointed out that the relations
between both the countries are not normal and the deployment of such large
number of forces of both the countries at the borders is also not normal not to
forget that China is also in contravention of agreements. Hence there is a need
of restoration of normalcy in the border areas.
The meeting also discussed “disengagement and
de-escalation.” Jaishankar said, ”the impact of the tensions in the border
areas on the overall relationship has been visible in the last two years. I was
very honest in my discussions with the Chinese Foreign Minister, especially in
conveying our national sentiments on this issue. The frictions and tensions
that arise from China’s deployments since April 2020 cannot be reconciled with
a normal relationship between two neighbours. Foreign Minister Wang Yi
spoke about China’s desire for a return to normalcy, while also referring to
the larger significance of our ties. I was equally forthcoming that India wants
a stable and predictable relationship. But restoration of normalcy will
obviously require a restoration of peace and tranquillity. If we are both
committed to improving our ties, then this commitment must find full expression
in ongoing disengagement talks.”
Beijing is keen to host Prime Minister Modi at the
forthcoming BRICS summit in China later this year and it was an important
reason that Wang Yi visited India and wanted to have cordial and normal
relations. The Chinese state-controlled news agency Xinhua reported that in
course of his meetings with Doval and Jaishankar Wang “proposed a three-point
approach to achieving that end. First, both sides should view bilateral
relations with a long-term vision. Second, they should see each other’s
development with a win-win mentality. Third, both countries should take part in
the multilateral process with a cooperative posture”.
The visiting foreign minister also mentioned that
China and India are not threat to each other but both offer opportunity for the
development. He also stated that the differences should be dealt at a proper
position and bilateral ties should continue strengthening. He also remarked
that China welcomes India’s development and supports India’s vital role in
world affairs as China does not want “unipolar Asia”. He emphasized that if
China and India speak together the whole world would listen it. Easier said
than done. China can feign amnesia and forget its behaviour vis-à-vis India in
the past both remote and recent. But India has burnt its fingers and has
lessons to learn from China’s preposterous behaviour in the past.
Wang in his whirlwind tour visited several
countries including Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, and Nepal but announcement
for India’s visit came quite late although the visit was not impromptu. China
was of the view that India slowly but steadily moving towards U.S. camp with
malafide intention of suppressing China, hence Beijing adopted a stringent
posture on Indo-China border conflict. Nevertheless, in the current Russian Ukraine
war India took a balanced view and not supported U.S. Hence Wang visited India
to assess Indian position.
Wang spoke about Kashmir in OIC meeting on behest
of Imran Khan just to divert attention of Muslim countries about the pitiable
plight of Uighur Muslims. In future China may soften its attitude on
India-China border issues due to international pressure and hardened attitude
of India. But China is an expansionist and an untrustworthy country hence India
must remain prepared for some eventuality and should continue making its
defence preparedness.
It
appears that the present visit of Chinese Foreign Minister was unable to make
any specific breakthrough and India made it clear that the relations cannot be
normal unless there is disengagement at the borders. China’s desire that it
continue capturing Indian territory and also utilise India as a big market is
not acceptable to Delhi. India should strengthen its ‘Make in India’ campaign
so that import from China can be curbed.
New Delhi. 12 October 2021. There is an interesting scenario developing in the ‘powerful’ Indian
neighbour’s so called developed society. Reports emanating from China indicate
that the country is passing through a most terrible power crisis. There were
severe blackouts and Beijing has enforced electricity rationing in large parts
of the country. Not only factories are closed but even hospitals, schools and
homes are affected. The shops were functioning on candle lights, while the
lights of residences in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning districts were cut off
without notice for many days. Even the state-run Global Times mentioned that
the blackouts were “unexpected and unprecedented”. The factories in Hunan,
Guangdong and Anhui provinces were instructed to curtail their production
because of power crisis. China watchers claim that besides shortage of
electricity the administration is ruthlessly implementing the ‘dual control’
policy for energy savings.
The manufacturing sector which is the backbone of
China’s unprecedented growth was badly hit because of power shortage. According
to an estimate more than 40 percent manufacturing was impacted because of power
crisis. The official State-run Xinhua News Agency also stated that more than 20
registered companies had suspended their production.
President Xi Jinping while addressing the Climate
Ambition Summit in December 2020 promised that China will cut down more than 65
percent of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 in comparison to 2005 emission. He
also assured that China would use more renewable energy. Nonetheless Prof Zou
Ji, Chief executive and president of Energy Foundation in China mentioned in an
interview that China could peak carbon dioxide emission by 2028. The present
power crisis is in the autumn season while the things are expected to worsen in
winter months when the demand would be at its zenith.
The National Development and Reform Commission
(NDRC) announced a ‘dual control policy’ on 26 September 2021 pertaining to
energy consumption and to reduce the emission.
Besides power outages, U.S. China trade war,
Beijing’s deteriorating relations with the democratic world, cases of theft of
intellectual property, human right violations in whole of China especially in
Xinjiang autonomous region of Uighur Muslims, debilitating the autonomy of Hong
Kong, threatening its neighbours including Japan and Taiwan, illegally
capturing the areas of India and other neighbouring countries, aggressive
behaviour in South China Sea, high tariffs and misuse of World Trade
Organisation and other international organisations are other reasons that
several big multi-national companies are either leaving China or reducing their
production in the country.
The spread of coronavirus and rising production
costs have expediated the departure and reduction of manufacturing units of
multinationals in China. The prominent companies including Nike, Apple, Samsung
Electronics, LG Electronics, Adidas, Puma, Zoom, Sharp, Hasbro, Kia Motors,
Hyundai Motor Group, Stanley Black & Decker, Dell, HP, Microsoft, Sony,
Nintendo are affected by the present power crisis. These companies have either
reduced the size of their production units or withdrawn or in the process of
transferring their production facilities from China.
According to a rough estimate more than 30 percent
of manufacturing units would be leaving China within next five years or less.
As several companies are in the process of leaving, the signboards mentioning
‘space available’, can be viewed in Dongguan and other manufacturing hubs in
China.
America, which is a sole super power, is also
feeling threatened because of phenomenal rise of China, which is home of about
30 percent of global manufacturing which is about $ four trillion. China, which
has the world’s best supply chains, is the world’s largest exporter while U.S.
is the biggest importer.
In view of above India should galvanise its system
so that it can take benefit of exodus of multinational companies from China.
Delhi should give more emphasis on ‘Make in India’ policy. Although there would
be a virtual meeting between President Biden and President Xi Jinping by the
end of 2021 but U.S. is in no hurry to lift tariffs on Chinese goods imposed
during Trump regime.
The companies are shifting to Vietnam, India, and
other countries. Chinese leadership is realising that business is shifting to
other countries hence Xi Jinping has propounded the idea of ‘dual circulation’
which means that instead of depending on exports, China should focus more on
internal circulation which means production, dispersal, and consumption within
the country.
The Chinese government is tightening the business
enterprises which were not adhering the laws. Chief Executives of big firms
were arrested while few more may be imprisoned. Government is formulating laws
to increase state control so that the debt, and impact of foreign countries
especially U.S. can be mitigated. Government is not ready to provide bailout
package to sick Evergrande Group which is facing a liquidity crisis. The firms
which were involved in corruption and illegal transactions were raided by
government officials.
China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in
2001 as a junior player but soon it reformed its economy and became a leading
player in producing labour-intensive products including toys, readymade
garments, textiles, footwear just to name few. After producing labour intensive
products Beijing entered in electronics. As the wages of labour has increased
and the labour force is much more qualified, hence China wants to manufacture
higher-end goods.
Consequently, the country with good infrastructure
can attract labour intensive industries. In 2013 China’s share in world exports
was 39.3 percent which was reduced to 31.6 percent in 2018 and it would further
reduce. Now India, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri
Lanka, and Vietnam are in competition. Bangladesh has emerged a second largest
producer of readymade garments while manufacturers of sneakers and textiles are
moving to Vietnam but these countries are too small to take over all
labour-intensive industries. Europe, North Africa, and Middle East are also not
capable to accommodate bulk of these industries. In fact, India with a large
work force has the capability and desire to accommodate industries shifting
from China.
China is also trying to retain these industries by
using more robots but all work cannot be done through machines. China is also
trying to shift the industries in other part of the country which is not much
developed but it is also difficult because of poor infrastructure. The manufacturers
are also reluctant to move from coastal areas to interior of the country. In
the beginning companies would move small portion of their manufacturing units
and if everything works well, they will shift fully to other country, as
China’s power crisis is difficult to resolve.
The present scenario is obscure as many options are
emerging. First of all, China does not want the departure of all
labour-intensive industries. It may like to shift them in other underdeveloped
areas so that in present areas more technology-based industries can be
established. China will also make efforts to restore power supply but certainly
curtail the use of coal in power generation. The companies are also hesitant in
shifting their bases, as China provides the best infrastructure, qualified
labour, and company friendly labour laws. As companies have to shift their
bases from China, India being a democratic country, with large workforce,
independent judiciary can be a good choice. Nonetheless India has to develop
infrastructure, company laws have to be made investment friendly, the
interference of bureaucracy has to be curbed. The workforce needs more training
and technical expertise. Shifting of industries would also be good for the
success of ‘Make in India’ programme. Government is working hard for ‘Make in
India’ programme as it would create large number of jobs to unemployed youths
of the country. Defence forces have already given big contracts to Public
Sector Undertakings (PSUs) which would create, jobs, infrastructure, and
expertise. The foreign companies are aware that in the beginning there is
always less infrastructure which grows with passage of time. It happened in
China also hence India should accelerate its efforts so that more and more
companies establish industries in the country.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United
Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at
editor.adu@gmail.com)·
AAKROSH
·ASIAN JOURNAL ON TERRORISM
AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS
·January 2019 Volume 22 Number
82
·
·SINO- NEPAL RELATIONS :
WORRY FOR INDIA
·China which has deep
pockets has put massive investment in Nepal with ulterior motive of distancing
it with India and keeping the Himalayan kingdom under its influence. The
communist regime of Nepal is ideologically close to China and Prime Minister
Oli is pro-Chinese. He won 2018 elections on anti-India rhetoric. Although
keeping the old tradition, after taking over as prime minister, he paid first
three day visit to India but later paid six day visit to China and signed
several important agreements. Nepal is also part of Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) which is an important strategic project under which China provides loan
for developing infrastructure in economically weaker countries and when these
countries fail to repay the debt China takes over strategic installations. Sri
Lanka had to lease out Hambantota port on ninety-nine years lease.Nepali media, anti-Indian
forces, and powerfulChinese intelligence agency MSS
launched a disinformation campaign and alleged that economic blockade of 2015
was the handiwork of Indian government.
Prime Minister Modi visited thrice to Nepal within four years and
started “Ramayana Circuit”. Although India should stress on religious ties but
must caution Nepal that China is an expansionist country and pursuing
the policy of “debt-trap diplomacy”. India should make sincere efforts to
complete the projects within the stipulated time.Delhi should also make it clear
that it does not want to dictate terms to Nepal and it is a malicious
propaganda that secular India wants Nepal to be a Hindu nation.
·
·The budding Sino-Nepal relations and increasing commercial,
economic and political dealings are cause of concern for India. Beijing has put
in excess of $ 8 billion in the Himalayan Kingdom and emerged as the uppermost
investor in the country. Nepal has agreed to join Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) which is a dream project of President Xi Jinping. Although China
projected BRI as an economic venture but it is a strategic project, which will
give Beijing a leverage to control its small neighbours. China Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is an important segment of BRI, passes through
Pakistan Occoupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit and Baltistan, hence India refused
to be part of BRI, but Kathmandu without caring the sentiments of India agreed
to join BRI. (1)
·Nepal
Army personnel also participated in the second edition of ‘Mt. Everest
Friendship Exercise’ at Sichuan province of China. The 12 day exercise
commenced from September 17 and twelve military personnel of Nepalese Armed Forces participated in the exercise. The joint military exercise between Nepal and China was
mainly focused on terrorism and disaster management. The first exercise between Nepalese Armed
Forces and People’s Liberation Army was held in April 2017. The armed forces of
India and Nepal are conducting joint military exercise namely Surya Kiran from
last 13 years in which more than 300 armed personnel participate. The last,
fourteen day, Surya Kiran exercise was conducted in Pithoragarh (India) from
June 13, 2018. The focal point of the joint military exercise is counter
terrorism and it increases perception and interoperability between Indian and
Nepalese armies. Although the joint military exercise between Indian and
Nepalese armies are at much larger scale but starting of the military exercise
between armed forces of Nepal and China is also a cause of concern for India. (2)
·The anti-India and
pro-China lobby especially the people of hilly region propagate that India
treats Nepal as a subordinate state and when they go to India for work they are
ill-treated and exploited. Unfortunately the migrant workers do not feel
thankful that although they are not technically qualified and there is lots of
unemployment in India they get some job, which is not available in their
motherland.
·History of
Sino-Nepal Relations
·
·The Sino-Nepal Treaty of Peace
and Friendship was signed in April1960. In the early stages, Nepal was not very
keen to inculcate strong ties with China, as it realised that it will not be
liked by India and secondly Communist China is an expansionist country.
Nonetheless both the countries resolved all border disputes and on March 21,
1960 Sino-Nepal boundary agreement was inked. Both the countries approved the
border agreement on October 5, 1961. The relations between China and Nepal
considerably strengthened after 1975 as Beijing invested in the infrastructural
development of Himalayan kingdom. Although more than one million Nepalese work
in India and remit large amount of money to their motherland while less than
4000 Nepalese work in Mainland China but large number of Nepalese perform
menial jobs in India hence they do not have good opinion about the country
which gave them employment. (3)
·Nepal restored diplomatic relations with China in
1955 and ambassadors of both the countries were exchanged in 1960 and in 1956
Nepal and China signed a new treaty and Kathmandu accepted Tibet as part of
China. In 1961 both countries agreed to connect Tibet with Kathmandu through an
all weather road. In 1962 Nepal remained neutral during India-China war. In
1980 when India refused to supply arms to King Gyanendra, who wanted to control
Maoists, he approached China which readily grabbed the opportunity and supplied
much needed weaponry to Nepal. Although Maoists and Chinese have same ideology
but Beijing gave more importance to national interests then the ideology. In
this way China earned the goodwill of King Gyanendra while India lost the
opportunity of curbing Maoists, who are ideologically opposed to democratic
India. In 2008 when Maoists came to power they threatened to discard the 1950
treaty with India. Nepal and China signed a transit trade treaty and nine other
accords in March 2016.
·Massive Chinese investment in the
land-locked country
·China-Nepal Business Development had a forum at Beijing on
December 17, 2018. In the meeting, Nishchal Pandey Director of the Center for
South Asian Studies based in Kathmandu mentioned that the main concern of Nepal
government is “How to attract Chinese investment? Leela Mani Paudyal Nepalese
Ambassador in China welcomed Chinese investment in Nepal and also stated that
the main Chinese investment is in the fields of infrastructure development,
water, power and mining. While
appreciating Chinese technology and business management, he accepted that big
Chinese companies like ZTE Corporation, which is a multinational
telecommunications equipments and Systems Company, China Gezhouba Group
companies and Huawei have already invested in Nepal but several other Chinese
companies are also showing interest in investing in the country. The president
of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation (AITEC)
Gu Xueming emphatically stated that Chinese companies are playing a pivotal
role in contract market in Nepal. AITEC works under Ministry of Commerce hence,
he gave latest figures of Chinese investments in Nepal. He mentioned that since
2013, Chinese companies signed about 229 contracts worth $3.32 billion
including Hetauda-Narayanghat-Mugling-Kathmandu Highway. It is the main
Highway, which connects Kathmandu with its southern cities. The approximate
length of the highway is 227 KMs and it has many tunnels. The total expenditure
is expected to be $590 million. The project would also cover transportation,
water conservation, power utilities and communications. Lhasa-Xigaze-Gyirong
railway is also significant for the economic development of Nepal, as it will
bring large number of tourists to the land-locked country. Nepalese want the
rail link to be extended up to Kathmandu.
(4)
·China had invested more than USD 39 million which is 87
percent foreign direct investment (FDI) from October 2017 to July 2018. Few
portions of Kathmandu’s eight-lane ring road were constructed while at few
places the ring-road was widened by the Chinese companies.
·China is financing hydroelectric dams, as well as a cement
factory with an investment of $131 million. China also built police
Headquarters in Kathmandu. Beijing also agreed to purchase Pashmina Shawals
from Nepal. China is active in all spheres of Nepalese life that includes
construction of multiple infrastructure projects as well as selling of children
toys and books. (5)
·China which has deep pockets gave loans to poverty-ridden
Nepal which is in dire need of infrastructure projects. China became leading
investor in Nepal in 2014 leaving India behind. In 2017 China assured to invest
$ 8.3 billion, while Indian companies pledged merely $317 million. Umpteen
numbers of Nepalese are learning Chinese language and several institutes
teaching Chinese language have emerged in the country. The numbers of Chinese
tourists have increased manifold. Previously most of Nepalese students were
coming to India, but now more students are going to China. Large numbers of
Chinese businessmen are present in Nepal and Chinese internet companies are
snatching business from Indian business houses. Nepalese defence service
personnel are also going to China for training.
·
·Nepal-China transit
agreement
·In 2015-16 the cargo movement from India to Nepal was limited
because of Madhesi movement, nonetheless it not only increased the hardships of
the common masses but it also reduced the exports and imports of the country considerably. There was acute shortage of
essential items especially petroleum products, which raised the public outcry
to reduce Nepal’s dependence on India. Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, who
is ideologically close to communist China took advantage of the anti-India
sentiments, finalised Transit Transport Agreement (TTA) with China on September
7, 2018. According to the terms of
agreement, China authorized Nepal to use four sea ports at Lianyungang,
Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Tianjin and three land ports at Lhasa, Xigatse, and
Lanzhou for trade with other countries. The TTA permitted Nepali traders to use
Nepali trucks for ferrying Nepalese goods from agreed Chinese ports to Nepal
and vice -versa.(6)
·The TTA was signed by Oli in his
China’s visit in March 2016 but it took more than two years to sort out finer
details. China delayed in sorting out the details as it wanted to force Nepal
to sign Memorandum of Understanding on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with the
stipulation that Nepal will agree to construct all the infrastructure projects
under BRI. Secondly Nepal requested to lengthen Tibetan railways up to
Kathmandu but China felt that extending the railway line from Kyirong (China)
to Kathmandu is economically not viable unless India also joins it for
exporting its goods to South Asian countries. Thirdly China was not ready to
give all the seaports and land ports demanded by Nepal. China was also
assessing the security issues, points of entry and exit, types of
transportation etc. China was also averse of the idea of opening of Tatopani
check post for trade as Tibetan refugees enter Nepal from Tatopani and in 2008
Tibetans held a huge protest there. Several NGOs are also working in Tatopani
area, while US has trained Peace Corps workers there to work in Pokhara. (6)
·China extended several favours to
Nepal after India and United States signed the Communications Compatibility and
Security Agreement (COMCASA) in September 2018. The COMCASA is vital for India,
as after the agreement India can buy sensitive defence armaments from USA.
Washington also declared India ‘major defence
partner’ in 2016. Nepal also refused to participate in the India-proposed
military exercise of The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral
Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) countries.
·The analysts claim that although
there are several drawbacks in TTA, but it gave a big moral boosting to Oli and
his party. It will also give leverage to Oli, while negotiating with India;
nonetheless there are several practical problems in TTA. Firstly the northern
route is unfit for carrying voluminous articles because of hilly region.
Secondly landslides are a common feature which hampers the smooth flow of
traffic. Thirdly Lanzhou-Kyirong-Kathmandu (LKM) provides Nepalese businessmen
entrance to western zone, while Nepal businessmen purchase articles from
China’s south eastern cities. Although China signed TTA as it wanted to score
points on India but it does not want that the route which passes through Tibet
is frequently used. (6)
·Nepal Tibet relations
·The border between Nepal and China
is approximately 1,414 kilometers which passes through the mountain range of
Himalaya including Tibet Autonomous Region. There are ancient relations between
Nepal and Tibet and Sherpas, Gurungs and Thakalis have marital, cultural and
linguistic ties on both sides of the border.
However the ties between Tibet and Nepal restricted after annexation of
Tibet by China in 1950. China wanted full peace and control in Tibet as
sometimes rebel Tibetans resort to terrorist activities. In 1959 large number
of Tibetans took shelter in Nepal as the revolt against repressive policies and
merger of Tibet failed. Tibetans were constantly migrating into Nepal and in
2008 the number swelled to 128,000. However Nepal under pressure from China
started ill-treating Tibetans and now the refugees have reduced to about 20,000.
Nepal does not give citizenship to Tibetans and they are not allowed to work in
the country. If any Tibetan is caught near the border he is forcibly deported
to Tibet. The oppression of Nepalese authorities on Tibetans is increasing as
the influence of China is enhancing. Nepalese authorities do not allow even
peaceful anti-China, pro-Tibetan protests in Nepal. The Nepalese police not
only snatch the posters but also beat the silent Tibetan protesters. Tibetan
refugees mention that they are treated as second class residents and lack basic
human rights in Nepal. In view of escalating Chinese investment and its
influence in Nepal, the Tibetan refugees want to migrate into India. However
China is pressurising Nepal not to allow Tibetan refugees to immigrate to India
as Beijing alleges that India uses Tibetan refugees against China. (7)
·Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is closer to
China
·Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, is one out of two chairmen
of the Nepal Communist Party, is ideologically close to Communist China.
Although he projected himself as a nationalist but he won the elections, which
were held on 26 November and 7 December 2017 to elect 275 members of the House
of Representatives of the Federal Parliament, by anti-India rhetoric. He
promised during elections to inculcate more friendly relations with China.
Although following the tradition he paid first foreign visit to India, which
was for three day, but paid six day visit to China and signed several
significant agreements during his Chinese visit.
·
·Oli government is offering, special privileges and facilities to
Chinese companies, so that they invest in the country. Nepal gives 100 percent corporate income tax
exemption for first 10 years and then 50 percent exemption for next five years.
There are special incentives for investing in energy and tourism sectors.
·
·Prime Minister Oli had reinstated the contract of $2.5
billion of China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) annulled by the previous
government. The CGGC was constructing Nepal’s largest hydro Budhi-Gandaki
plant, which would produce 1,200 megawatt of electricity; it would double
country’s hydropower production. The main opposition Nepali Congress Party
criticised government for awarding such a big contract to a Chinese firm after
flouting the procedure and without competitive bidding, hence it is
objectionable as it is against the national interest. Nepali Congress also
demanded that Budhi Gandaki project should be constructed through domestic
investments. Nepal and China want to enhance connectivity between both the
countries with different motives. Nepal wants to mitigate Indian influence
while China wants to reach India through Nepal. (8)
·Oli became prime minister first time
in October, 2015 when Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal and about 13 other smaller
political parties supported him. However during his tenure he had to face the
blockade by forces opposing the constitution. Oli’s government had also fallen
in July 2016 as Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) withdrew support.
Besides CPN (M-C) other parties including Madhesi Jana Adhikar ForumandRastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal also withdrew support. Oli took
advantage of the situation and alleged that Indian government was behind the
withdrawal of support by political parties. His government fell before the
visit of Chinese president Xi Jinping. Oli cancelled the planned visit of
Nepali president to India and also recalled Nepali Ambassador from Delhi. Both
are quite stringent measures taken by Nepal government, keeping its close
relations with India.
·Oli very intelligently exploited anti-India
sentiments during Legislative elections held in 2017. He claimed that he
resisted the illegal pressure of India, developed close relationship with China
and saved Nepali honour. His tactic paid
dividend and his party Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist
(CPN-UML) won 121 seats while CPN (Maoist Centre) won 53 seats, out of 275
seats in the parliament. After elections both these parties merged and a new
party Communist Party of Nepal was constituted. The new party has two-third
majority in Nepali parliament. The
intelligence sources claim that both the parties had several differences but
they had to merge because of pressure from Chinese intelligence agency,
The Ministry of State Security (MSS). MSS is very active in the
neighbouring countries and helped Oli and his party to win the elections. MSS
rendered financial assistance as well as helped in arousing anti-India
feelings. India was blamed for economic blockade while China was appreciated
for sending the necessary items during the blockade.
·Oli’s China Visit
·
·After India’s three day visit, Oli paid a six-day official
visit to China from June 19-24. After completion of his visit he briefed the
Nepali parliament and mentioned that the object of his visit was to seek
China’s assistance in the economic progress of the country. He mentioned that
now the country will implement the previous agreements expeditiously and will
take Nepal China relations to new heights. He stated that during the visit, he
met President Xi Jinping, his counterpart Li Keqiang Premier of the State
Council, who is an economist by trade. Besides them he also met several other
dignitaries of China and Tibet. Oli told that agreements were signed about railways,
expansion of road network, and about the strengthening of communication system.
He claimed that construction of Keyrong-Kathmandu railway will be a landmark on
Nepal-China relations. China will also give economical and technological
assistance in production of agricultural goods. China will support Nepal in the
Development of Human Resources and will increase scholarships to Nepali
students. Nepal will also open General Consulates in different cities of China.
(9)
·
·Several important agreements were signed between government
and private companies of both the countries in the fields of Hydropower, cement
and about establishment of highland food parks for multiple fruits and
vegetables. The Chinese firm agreed to invest $130 million which will produce 3,000
metric tonnes of cement every day. A study will be made on Biring, Kamala and
Kankai rivers so that the irrigation system can be improved. Several hydropower
projects would be developed on the basis of build, own, operate and transfer
(BOOT). Oli asserted that the visit was very successful and it took Nepal China
relations to new heights. (10)
·
·Salient features of Oli’s visit to India
·
·Prime Minister
Oli, who missed no chance in his previous tenure to undermine India, had not
broken the tradition and after taking over as Prime Minister, he paid first
foreign visit to India, albeit a three day official tour, which commenced from
6th April, 2018.Oli has become
very powerful in his second term as the Left Alliance has two third majority. In view of Nepal’s growing proximity with
China and his support in parliament, India accorded ceremonial welcome to Oli
and Home Minister Rajnath Singh, received him at the airport. After completion of the visit, Oli told to press
at Tribhuvan International Airport that the discussions with Indian leaders were ‘cordial and positive’
and the visit has ‘further strengthened’ the friendly relations. During the
visit, both sides decided to develop inland waterways and build a rail line
connecting Raxaul (Bihar-India) to Kathmandu. The inland waterways can play a
significant role in the economic development of the region as cargo can be
transported by waterways at much cheaper cost. Both the prime ministers also
inaugurated Integrated Check Post at Birgunj in Nepal. They also put the
inauguration stone of Motihari-Amlekhgunj petroleum products pipeline at
Motihari. Both the leaders asserted that India and Nepal have close Defence and
Security relationship and it is further strengthened. They also reiterated that
they will not allow the misuse of open border. Oli besides requesting for more investments
also pointed out about the massive trade imbalance which is very harmful for
the economy of Nepal. (15)
·
·After the visit of Nepalese Prime Minister, Modi also visited
Nepal in May and during the visit both the prime ministers laid foundation
stone of Arun III hydropower plant, which will cost $ 1.4. Billion and will be
a turning point for energy starved Nepal. It is one of the five jumbo
hydropower project, out of these five two are constructed by China. Arun III is
a big project hence it will generate lot of direct as well as indirect
employment opportunities for the Nepalese.
Nepal has lot of water and can build several hydropower projects, at
present Nepal is using only two percent of its capacity.
·
·2015 blockade and its repercussions
·
·The alleged economic blockade by India commenced from 23rd
September, 2015, which critically affected the economy of the landlocked
country. Nepali media, anti-Indian forces and Chinese stooges alleged that the
blockade was the handiwork of Indian government, although India made it clear
that it has no role in the blockade and it was caused inside Nepal because of
the protests by Madheshis. The anti-India forces also alleged that Indian
security forces were also imposing the blockade. Nepal being a land locked
country is dependent on the supply of several essential items including
petroleum products, medicines etc. on India.
·
·Madheshis demand Madheshi state while Tharu and Kiranti, two other
ethnic groups were also demanding more autonomy, all three groups enforced the
blockade albeit for different reasons. Besides ethnic rivalry there were also
political reasons, which aggravated the blockade. Two powerful leaders of
Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) former Prime Minister Baburam
Bhattarai and Party president Pushpa Kamal Dahal @ Prachanda were fighting with
each other. The Nepali Congress was also under tremendous pressure. The UCPN
(M) cracked and K P Sharma Oli became the prime minister. (11)
·
·The long awaited constitution was passed on 20 September, 2015 and
massive protests broke out which took lives of more than 40 persons including
eight policemen. Madheshis and Tharus both reside near India- Nepal borders and
they were protesting as they mentioned that the new constitution has
marginalised them. Meanwhile the press reported that India is not happy with
few provisions of the constitution and urged Nepal government to make few
amendments. The powerful Chinese intelligence agency MSS launched a
disinformation campaign in the country and communist leaders alleged that
Sashtra Seema Bal (SSB), which guards India Nepal border was stopping the
shipment of petroleum products to Nepal. Pro-Chinese elements claimed that
Indians have joined Madheshis and were fomenting the trouble, although Madheshi
leaders refuted the allegation. Madheshis have strong socio-cultural links with
residents of Indian states of Bihar and Utter Pradesh. Meanwhile a small number
of self styled Indian leaders/writers linked the protests with Bihar elections.
Anti-India lobby in Nepal exploited these statements.
·In 1989 also India closed 19 out of 21 border crossings when a
dispute arose on trade and transit treaties. These blockades generated lot of
anti-India feelings and anti-India lobby pressed hard for minimizing the
dependence on India. They demanded that Nepal should incline more towards its
other neighbour i.e. China.
·The blockade resulted in acute shortage of petroleum products
which raised smuggling of POL products from India. Nepal signed an agreement
with China to bring POL but because of difficult terrain POL could not be
brought. China donated 1.3 million liters of petrol to Nepal.
·
·India requested Nepal to end Madheshi crisis as the protesters
were not allowing Indian trucks to enter Nepal. The India baiters wanted to
internationalise the issue as they alleged that India has flouted the
stipulations of the treaty as well as the international laws. India made it
clear that there was no blockade from Indian side but because of the protests,
Indian truck owners and drivers were reluctant to go inside the country. Indian
Foreign Minister as well as Ministry of External Affairs Spokesman made it
clear that there is no restriction from India. The leaders of Madheshi Parties
including Nepal Sadbhawana Party condemned Nepali media for charging India for
blockade.
·
·It was a severe blow to the economy of Nepal as tourism,
construction industry, factories all suffered heavily. Nepalese residing in foreign countries
including United States and Europe made protests against assumed high
handedness of India.
·Oli took advantage of anti-India sentiments and visited China and
signed several accords including transit agreement under which Nepalese can use
Chinese ports.
·
·Prime Minister Modi’s visits to Nepal
·Prime Minister Modi since beginning pursued the policy of
“neighbourhood first”, paid three visits to Nepal within a short span of four
years out of this two were state visits, while one was to attend the South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Kathmandu.
·
·Modi started his third visit from Janakpur, which is the
birthplace of Sita, and Muktinath temple. In the visit Modi tried to win over
the love and affection of Hindu majority which became anti-India due to the
blockade. Modi also started “Ramayana
Circuit” under which bus service started between Janakpur to Ayodhya. Government of India promised to develop 15
destinations all over India under Ramayana Circuit. These 15 areas are in
different provinces, including Utter Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha,
Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Telangana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. It is expected
that Ramayana Circuit would increase religious tourism which would create
employment. Modi also sanctioned Rs.100 crore to develop Janakpur. (16)
·
·It was also decided by both the countries that long-awaited
Arun-III hydropower project will also be started. A faction of The Communist
Party of Nepal, which opposes giving of any major project to India, also tried
to blast the site, by putting a crude bomb. India promised to assist by
providing $ 1.5 billion, which is more than the expected cost. India also
promised to build a railway line between Raxaul and Kathmandu. (12)
·
·The MSS instigated pro-Chinese elements and they organised few
protests against Modi and asked for the apology about the economic blockade of
2015. Two bomb blasts also occurred on 29 April in Arun III hydropower project
area although the preparations were going on to lay down the foundation stone
of the hydropower project by prime minister Modi on May 11, 2018. Modi in his
visits stressed more on people to people contact, religious and cultural ties,
as China is much ahead of India in the investments in Nepal.
· Way Forward
·India, while stressing on the old religious and cultural ties
between both the countries, should stress that China is an expansionist country
and Chinese companies do not allow international bidding for the contracts. All
the contracts are taken by the Chinese companies on much higher rates, for
example the estimated cost of construction of Pokhara Airport was $140 million
but Chinese company is charging $216 million. Not only this, Chinese companies
bring most of the construction material and large number of labour force, hence
Chinese projects generates very little direct or indirect employment. According
to intelligence reports, Chinese companies give the extra amount to the Chinese
intelligence agency MSS, which
uses it in bribing
the politicians and procuring the contracts for Chinese firms. Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as Prachanda awarded contract of
construction of dam on Budhi Gandaki River in last days of his prime minister
ship after being pressurised by MSS. (16 &14)
·
·India
should also emphasise that China is pursuing the policy of “debt-trap
diplomacy”. It offers infrastructure loans with intricate clauses and when
smaller economies are unable to repay the loan and interests, Chinese occupy
the strategic projects. Sri Lanka lost Hambantota. According to Centre for
Global Development, a nonprofit think tank based in Washington DC and makes
independent research and gives practical ideas for Global prosperity mentioned
in a report that eight countries including Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro,
Pakistan, and Tajikistan are vulnerable as they took part in China’s BRI. Nepal
should be cautious so that it also does not have to surrender some territory to
China or has to full-fill unreasonable demands. (13)
·Mostly
Indian projects are delayed in Nepal while Chinese projects meet their targets.
As both India and China are competing on same type of infrastructure projects,
the comparison between both the countries become more apparent and China is far
ahead in meeting the deadlines in comparison to India. Modi in his first visit assured that Indian
projects will also meet the deadlines but regrettably no meaningful progress
achieved and projects continued to be delayed. Hydropower project at Mahakali
River or road constructed in southern Nepal are all legging behind the
schedule. Indian government should try to clear the bottlenecks and the
projects must finish within the stipulated time. The delay inflates the cost of
projects and also enhances the problems of the masses and lastly it gives bad
name to the country.
·
·Beijing, which considers Delhi
as its potential adversary, is encircling India. It already compelled Sri Lanka
to give Hambantota on 99 years lease. Pakistan is passing through a disastrous
economic phase, has already surrendered Gwadar Port and it is expected that
China will occupy arable land and mineral resources of Gilgit and Baltistan and
is also eyeing on unexploited minerals of Balochistan. China not only signed
Free Trade Agreement with archipelago Maldives but also occupied its two
islands. China has also special status in Chittagong Port of Bangladesh. China
is also investing in Afghanistan albeit with India. Hence India should be
careful that Nepal also does not fall in the lap of China.
·
·India should counter the
propaganda of anti-India lobby that India wants to dictate Nepal, hence it
objected the promulgation of Nepalese constitution in 2015. India should also
clarify that India has no intention to interfere in the internal matters of the
country and it is a false allegation that India or its ruling party Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) wants Nepal to be a Hindu nation. Firstly India itself is a
secular country and secondly in past when Nepal was a Hindu nation India wanted
it to be a secular country. (14)
·
·Anti-India lobby also
proliferated that India is pressing for a separate state for Madhesis in the
areas abutting India. Nepal considered it as a threat to the security as at a
later stage they may demand a separate country. India must make it clear that
they have no ill-designs about the country and it does not interfere in the
internal affairs of Nepal.
·
·Nepal
has agreed to become the part of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China will invest heavily in
Nepal on infrastructure projects which Nepal due to its poor economic condition
will not able to undertake. India also cannot replace China as it also lacks
resources hence India should try to persuade Oli that in the national interest
Kathmandu must be careful about malafide intentions of their northern
neighbour. (14)
·
·Traditionally
Nepal has close ties with India, because of religious and cultural affinity and
open borders. Nepal is also dependent on India for several things including
trade and financial activities. Now Oli government is leaning towards another
neighbour China and signed several agreements but there are several hurdles in
implementing these accords due to Himalayan terrain. India should also try to
be helpful to Nepal so that its leaning towards China can be restrained. India
baiters are pleading that Nepal should lessen its dependence on India although
they realise the difficulties but firstly they get favourable response from
ignorant masses and secondly they pressurise India also.
·
·The
relations between India and China also affect China Nepal tie-ups. India-China
relations became tense after 73 days standoff at Doklam but after meeting
between Modi and Xi at Wuhan and subsequent sessions the relations between both
the countries have normalized ostensibly. Nevertheless both counties are
cautious about each other as they have border disputes and have divergent
strategic interests. (14)
·
·India
should realise that the present communist regime in Nepal is ideologically
close to China; hence India must take advantages of its geographical position
and should also enhance its assistance to Nepal. India’s promise of linking
Kathmandu from Raxaul through rail link and assistance in constructing
hydropower plant Arun III are good gestures.
·
·Indian
policy planners should also not consider that growing Nepal-China relations are
against India and China will be allowed to use Nepalese territory against
India. In 1962 war between India and China, Kathmandu remained neutral.
Nepalese claim that it is a land-locked country and wants to progress after
taking assistance from both the neighbours. However Nepal is heavily leaning
towards China because of Oli’s ideological leanings, India’s inadequate
resources to assist and China’s ulterior motive to give loan and later occupy
the strategic areas. Nevertheless it appears that China is succeeding because
Nepal which had age old relations with India because of proximity, open borders
is talking about parity of relations between India and China.
·
·Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) had requested Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) in first week of January that RBI to issue a notification under Foreign
Exchange Management Act (FEMA) that Indian currency notes higher than Rs.100
would be legal tender in Nepal. Before denomination Indian currency notes of
Rs.500 and Rs.1000 were valid in Nepal. However after the issue of new notes
RBI had not issued the notification. As
there is lot of trade between both the countries, Nepali citizens keep higher denomination
Indian currency with them. However in
the same letter NRB requested Indian government to provide exchange facility of
banned Indian currency notes of Rs.500 and Rs.1000. According to Nepal
authorities they are keeping Indian currency notes of about Rs.48 million.
Government of India should issue notification mentioning that new currency
notes above Rs.100 denominations are also valid in Nepal as it may adversely
affect the bilateral trade, tourism between both the countries and large Nepali
force working in India. However the decision on banned currency can be taken on
merit. (17)
·
·However
Nepal’s 90 percent trade is with India and the approach to Indian cities and
ports are much easy in comparison to China’s ports. China wants to develop rail
connection with India through Nepal as Indian market is much bigger. Kathmandu
understands that Beijing is investing heavily in developing connectivity with
Nepal as it wants to reach India through Nepal. Beijing may inculcate best of
relations with Nepal but it will not be at the cost of India. Besides
developing railway, China is also constructing three roads to connect Nepal and
also trying to trade electricity between Nepal and China.
·
·Nepal
should learn from the experience of Sri Lanka strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa who
became anti-India during civil war. After crushing The Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), Rajapaksa wanted huge investments to build the
devastated country. As he had strained relations with India, he leaned heavily
towards Beijing. China’s investments and loan helped Rajapaksa to disentangle
from India but ultimately Sri Lanka failed to repay the loan and had to
surrender Hambantota
Port and in future China may occupy more strategic areas.
·
·The Notes and Reference
·1. Rajeswari Pillai
Rajagopalan: Should Rising China-Nepal Military Ties Worry India? The Diplomat
dated 20th August, 2018.
·2. Second Nepal-China Joint
military drill in Sichuan from Monday: The New Indian Express dated 27.12.2018.
·3. Wikipedia : China–Nepal relations
·
·4. Guo Yuandan: Nepal expects more Chinese investment in
infrastructure to boost development;
Global Times dated 24.12.2018
·5. Stephen Starr: China moves to bring Nepal into its sphere
of influence; The Irish Times dated 13.10.2018
·6. Nihar Nayak: Nepal-China Transit Agreement: An Evaluation;
Institute for Defence studies and Analyses
·17. Nepal asks RBI to
declare banned new Indian currency notes Legal; The Wire 06.01.2019
·
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Home » Spotlight » India
forceful at SCO Summit 2019: No
Modi-Imran meet
India
Forceful At SCO Summit 2019: No Modi-Imran Meet
Hits 97
By
JK Verma
The Prime
Minister Narendra Modi with the HOS/HOGs of SCO Member States at the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, in Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic on June 14,
2019.
New
Delhi. 16 June 2019. The
most interesting ear and eye catchingnews emanating from Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO) summit was Iranian President Hassan Rohani saying that
U.S. actions pose a “serious” threat to regional and global stability. But the
news motivating a billion plus Indians was that Prime Minister Narendra Modi
did not meet his Pakistani counterpart Imran Khan.
Modi met most of the world leaders present but he refused to meet
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan despite a desire to meet Modi by the latter
and him having written two letters to this effect. Pakistani media also
anticipated that there can be meeting at the side lines of SCO, but the
spokesman of Ministry of External Affairs made it clear that there will be no
meeting between Indian and Pakistani prime ministers. Modi
continued with tough posture and refused to use Pakistani airspace on his way
to Bishkek to attend SCO summit.
A wave for
solidarity of SCO
In Bishkek only “usual pleasantries” were exchanged between both the
prime ministers and Imran Khan congratulated Modi for getting a landslide
victory and defeating an important political family. The relations between both
the nations became tense after ISI sponsored terrorist outfit attacked a
Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) convoy at Pulwama in Kashmir in which about
40 valiant soldiers were martyred. India took revenge by bombing a terrorist
training camp in Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 26 February 2019.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first leader to reach at Manas
International airport in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan and the only Head of State
staying in a hotel, by choice and not in the President’s Palace.
PM Modi
shakes hands with the President of Kyrgyz Republic Sooronbay Jeenbekov
It was his first multi-lateral
summit after winning landslide victory in 2019 parliamentary elections. Beside
condemning terrorism and castigating the nations which support terrorism Modi
had bilateral meetings with several world leaders including Chinese President
Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kyrgyzstan President Sooronbay
Jeenbekov, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, President of the Republic of
Kazakhstan in the side-lines of SCO. Modi also had a ‘pull-aside’ meeting with
President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. A bilateral meeting was fixed with
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani but the
meeting was cancelled as the banquet for the SCO leaders was extended.
Modi not met his Pakistani counterpart despite two letters written by
Imran Khan and a letter was written by Pakistan’s foreign minister Shah Mehmood
Qureshi for the meeting. It infuriated Qureshi and he told that Pakistan wanted
to have talks with India on the “basis of equality”. He also clarified that
Pakistan is not in haste to have the meeting. He also alleged that India is
still on “election mindset”. However, Qureshi told to Geo news that the meeting
took place, there was handshake and pleasantries were also exchanged. It
appears that Qureshi told this to Geo news for the consumption of Pakistani
masses as in reality there was no meeting only pleasantries were exchanged.
Narendra
Modi meeting Dr. Ashraf Ghani
Peace in subcontinent depends on Afghanistan
On 14th June Prime Minster Modi without naming Pakistan, made a strong
statement against state-sponsored terrorism in SCO summit. He stated that the
states which are sponsoring, aiding, abetting and funding terrorism must be
held liable for it. He also emphasised the need of a global conference to fight
the menace of terrorism. In presence of Imran Khan, Modi reiterated that all
the countries should be united in fighting against terrorism and try to build a
terrorism free world. He also mentioned that he visited St. Anthony’s church in
Sri Lanka and there he saw the shameful face of terrorism which can “crop up
anytime anywhere and take the lives of innocent people”. PM also stated
that “A united, peaceful, safe and prosperous Afghanistan is an important
factor for the stability and security in the SCO region”. He mentioned that
India “support the efforts of the government and the people of Afghanistan for
an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled inclusive peace process.”
Modi shakes
hands with Xi Jinping
‘Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai’
Modi had several bilateral meetings but the most important were with
Presidents of China and Russia at the side-lines of SCO. Modi in series of
tweets mentioned that his meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping was very
fruitful and the talks included full gamut of India-China relations. President
Xi congratulated Modi for landslide victory in the recent elections. Chinese
President told that China “does not pose threat” to India and he desired to
have closer relationship. He also mentioned to sort out differences and the
Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) should be strengthened.
The state-controlled Xinhua news agency mentioned that “China and India
offer to each other chances for development, and do not pose each other
threats”. President Xi also emphasised that both China and India are the two
most populous states of the world and are developing rapidly hence they must
work together, which will not only be good for them but also righteous for the
tranquillity, prosperity and stability of the world. Xi also mentioned that
contentious border issue is dealt by Special Representatives. Ajit Doval
National Security Advisor and Wang Yi Chinese Foreign Minister are the Special
Representatives and so far, there are 21 rounds of talks. Xi emphasised about
the need of more cooperation in the fields of tourism, production, investment,
regional connectivity as well as development of Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar
Economic Corridor (BCIM).
Discussions were also held on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which India
has refused to join. Modi made it clear that India want to solve disputes with
Pakistan through bilateral mechanism, but Pakistan is not creating a conducive
atmosphere for starting the peaceful negotiations. Meeting was important as it
was held after China lifted its technical hold in declaring Pakistan based
Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist. Chinese
President also accepted the invitation to visit India for informal summit this
year.
The Chinese economy has slowed down and trade war is going on with USA.
President Trump has adopted a hard line hence China is seeing India as a big
market. There are not many takers of BRI which China claims as an economic project
but in reality, it is an strategic project. Several smaller countries feel that
China may occupy their prime land through BRI as Sri Lanka had to give
Hambantota seaport to China on 99 years lease as it could not repay the debt.
President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of Maldives is also slashing some projects
already awarded to Chinese companies. India is getting a good response from
neighbouring countries under its ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’. United States,
Japan and India jointly want to curb the increasing Chinese threat in Indian
Ocean Region (IOR). In view of all these President Xi was very friendly
with India and wanted to have closer relationship.
All
weather friend Russia : Modi & Putin in a tight clasp
Modi also had very fruitful
meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale
mentioned that meeting was “brief but very, very rich”. Both countries agreed
to increase trade and people to people contact. Putin came to India in
October 2018 for the 19th India-Russia annual summit in which multi-billion-dollar S-400
‘Triumf’ was inked. Modi accepted Putin’s invitation to be the main guest
at the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia’s Vladivostok in September 2019. Modi
thanked Putin for the establishment of the unit in Amethi to manufacture AK-203
Kalashnikov rifles. In nutshell the summit was quite useful for India as
Pakistan was ashamed and Modi had very useful meetings with Chinese and Russian
presidents.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which was created on 15 June 2001
in Shanghai is a permanent intergovernmental international organisation. The
members of SCO include the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation,
Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Uzbekistan, the
Republic of Tajikistan, the Republic of India and Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
In July 2015 in Ufa SCO decided to include India and Pakistan as full members
and both the countries joined SCO in the Astana Summit held in 2017. As the
name indicates it is a Chinese commanded eight-member security and economic
group. This is the second Council of Heads of States (CHS) of SCO summit after
India joined SCO.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services
Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in
the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com
SOUTH ASIA MONITOR
A Perspective on, from and of interest to the region
Powered by SPS Society for Policy Studies
India should be wary as China makes inroads in Bhutan
China, with deep pockets, is trying to woo Bhutan and wants to start a
diplomatic mission there, but India understands that these moves have strategic
implications and will weaken India’s influence, writes J K Verma for South Asia
Monitor
By J K VermaAPR 11, 2019
·
·
·
All of India’s neighbours, except
Bhutan, have joined Chinese President Xi Jinping’s dream Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), even though China is constantly luring the Himalayan Kingdom
to become part of this ambitious plan. China’s vice foreign minister visited
Bhutan after the Doklam standoff in 2017 and, after narrating the advantages of
BRI, urged Bhutan to join it.
China and Bhutan share 470 km of unfenced,
contiguous borders but do not have official diplomatic relations. Both
countries have territorial disputes and have had about 25 meetings to resolve
their border issues. In 1959, after the Tibetan rebellion, about 6000 Tibetans
took refuge in Bhutan, enraging Beijing. The Chinese map of 1961 claimed
Bhutanese territories and there were regular intrusions by Chinese soldiers.
The four major areas of dispute between Bhutan and China include Doklam,
Gamochen to Batangla, Singhela and Amo Chhu.
The Bhutanese feel that China is an expansionist
country which wants to annex Bhutan; hence India and Bhutan signed the Treaty
of Perpetual Peace and Friendship in 1949, which was later replaced by a Treaty
of Friendship in 2007. In 1971, India sponsored Bhutan’s membership in the
United Nations. Analysts claim that Bhutan rejected China’s offer to relinquish
its claim on Jakarlung and Pasamlung areas in lieu of Doklam under Indian
pressure. Hydropower is another irritant: Bhutan exports 70 per cent power to
India, forming about 20 per cent of Bhutan’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Although bilateral trade between India and Bhutan
is $516 million, much more than with China, with which Bhutan’s trade is just
$10 million, Bhutan’s trade deficit with India is of $150 million. India
accounts for 90 per cent of Bhutan’s exports and 79 per cent of its imports.
India financed Bhutan’s hydropower sector, which generates 27 percent of its
revenue. India is Bhutan’s principal aid donor and its five-year economic plans
have been largely financed by India.
India assisted Bhutan during the Doklam military
crisis. The Border Roads Organisation has created a network of roads in Bhutan
under Project Dantak.
But the number of Chinese tourists in Bhutan is
swelling and they are now only second to Indian visitors. China is also
exporting cement, machinery, electrical appliances, toys and so on and has
emerged as the third biggest exporter to the tiny Himalayan nation. China has
also enhanced religious, cultural and sports ties and is also offering numerous
scholarships to Bhutanese students.
India should impress upon Bhutan that the BRI, a
key pillar of Chinese foreign policy, is a debt trap under which it builds
large infrastructure projects in smaller countries which have to give contracts
to Chinese firms at inflated rates. All men and material used in these projects
are Chinese and the countries have to take exploitative loans from China. When
these countries fail to repay their debt, the Chinese occupy these projects.
Sri Lanka lost Hambantota port, Malaysia cancelled several BRI projects, while
Maldives is analysing the feasibility of these projects and is likely to cancel
a few.
Islamabad, which is passing through a deep economic
crisis cannot annoy China, as it has promised about $60 billion in investments
in Pakistan. However, it appears that China intends to exploit the mineral
resources of Balochistan and arable land of Gilgit and Baltistan.
China, with deep pockets, is trying to woo Bhutan
and wants to start a diplomatic mission there, but India understands that these
moves have strategic implications and will weaken India’s influence. The Chumbi
Valley is an important tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan as it is
just 500 km from the Siliguri corridor which connects India with its
northeastern states.
Bhutan alleges that India created a fuel crisis in 2013,
by slashing subsidies on kerosene and cooking gas when Bhutan was strengthening
its relations with China. Youth unemployment is touching 10.6 percent; hence it
wants to develop economy at a faster pace. The foreign debt, which was 108.6
percent of GDP in 2017, is increasing rapidly.
Several pro-Chinese elements in Bhutan criticise
Delhi and allege that India’s attitude is hegemonistic. Bhutanese businessmen
want Chinese investments so that the country can achieve faster economic
progress. The younger generation also alleges that India is exploiting Bhutan’s
hydropower and purchasing electricity at a low rate. They also want to chart an
independent foreign policy as they say India is undermining Bhutanese
sovereignty. Now Bhutan wants to settle its territorial disputes with China and
establish diplomatic relations with Beijing.
India should be careful as Chinese influence will
enhance manifold if diplomatic and economic ties are established between China
and Bhutan. Beijing, which considers Delhi as its strategic adversary, that
seemingly wants to encircle India, has already established close relations with
India’s neighbours and will try to win over Thimphu also. If Bhutan joins BRI
and falls into a debt trap, China will try to grab strategically important
areas from Bhutan, Hence India should be vigilant.
(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst.
He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)
Unless India accelerates the pace of construction
activities along its border, it will continue facing serious difficulties in
any future confrontation with China
The US Defence Intelligence Agency recently
released a report titled, ‘China Military Power: Modernizing a Force to Fight
and Win’, where it stated that China was increasing its capacity and warned
about how it could launch a regional conflict. Beijing has indeed increased its
military presence at several places. The report also pointed out that besides
conventional weapons, China was concentrating on cyber and outer space, too.
Nonetheless, the report mentioned that Beijing was not capable to deploy
defence forces all over the world but was competent to engage its enemy
anywhere in the world through its space, cyber space and nuclear competence.
The US also reported that the People’s Liberation
Army (PLA) of China had come back in the Doklam area and inaudibly re-commenced
construction work, which it had to discontinue because of a 73-day standoff
between the Indian Army and the PLA from June to August 2017. The Indian
Government has strongly refuted the US’ claims. Clearly, relations between the
US and China are becoming tense. The US, which is the sole super power, is
feeling threatened because of the spectacular rise and increasing assertiveness
of Beijing. China claims suzerainty over East China Sea and South China Sea and
also dictates terms to countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei
and Taiwan.
India shares about 3,488 km of border with China,
which at several places is not delineated. Hence, it is based only on
perception. There is no habitation for thousands of miles and, therefore,
there are disagreements along the border. Maps of both countries differ. China
claims about 90,000 sq km in Arunachal Pradesh and about 10,000 sq km in
Uttarakhand. The Dragon already grabbed the Aksai Chin area during the 1962 war
and Pakistan also handed over a few areas of Jammu and Kashmir.
There are several differences between New Delhi and
Beijing, including border disputes, the grant of an asylum to the Dalai Lama
and his followers, China’s objections to India’s membership to the Nuclear
Suppliers’ Group, construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),
which passes from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Gilgit and Baltistan areas.
China also instigates Pakistan to carry out terrorist activities in India and
subvert New Delhi’s efforts in the United Nations to declare Masood Azhar,
chief of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, as a global terrorist.
Yet despite such hostilities, the condition of our
border infrastructure is quite appalling. Last year, around 120 Indian soldiers
had to walk for about 19 hours to reach Doklam and stop the Chinese troops from
constructing a road in the absence of a motorable route. In view of this
miserable situation, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved a revised
budget of Rs 3,482.52 crore to construct 73 strategic roads along the
Indo-China border on November 10, 2018. These roads had been approved in 2005
and meant to be completed by 2012. But the project missed several
deadlines and is now expected to be completed by 2020. Construction agencies
claim that inclement weather, difficult terrain and rigmaroles of Government
procedures are responsible for missing deadlines. A report by the Comptroller
and Auditor-General (CAG), in fact, criticised the Border Road Organisation
(BRO) for inefficiciencies, delays and pushing several deadlines. Out of 73
roads, the BRO has to build 61 while 12 have been assigned to the Central
Public Works Department (CPWD). Besides roads, 22 foot tracks are also in the
pipeline in Arunachal Pradesh to facilitate the movement of the Indo-Tibetan
Border Police (ITBP).
Beijing considers India as its potential adversary
and, hence, it is necessary for India to develop infrastructure on areas
abutting China. CPWD’s annual report for 2018-19 mentioned that the
organisation will be constructing 44 strategically important roads on the
India-China border. These roads will be skirting Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim,
Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir. Fortunately for us,
traffic on Bogibeel Bridge in Assam, too, began from December 2018. The bridge
will help improve road and rail connectivity in the region and will benefit the
public and security forces.
The Indian side had, however, not developed the
required infrastructure along the border areas uniformly as it presumed
China could use it for its own designs. Second, even as infrastructure was
developed, it had to be defended and maintained, involving both human and
monetary resources. However, this defeatist policy was abandoned in 2006 and
the Cabinet Committee on Security decided to develop the border areas and
construct new roads, bridges and tunnels.
In case our infrastructure was in place, it could
have facilitated trade and commerce opportunites for locals on both sides.
Meanwhile, China speedily developed infrastructure on the border areas, which
has given its military an edge. The Chinese have built roads, railways and also
laid fibre optics. This has helped them improve their communication
system. They have even constructed roads up to the borders they control.
On the other hand, even after the Doklam episode,
India still lags behind in the development of infrastructural projects at the
borders. This has become a big strategic disadvantage for us. Indian troops
need acclimatisation at high-altitude areas. The non-availibility of
infrastructure hampers their sustenance while the Chinese forces enjoy superior
mobility and enforcement. The Indian Government must understand that while
recruitment and raising of more units may not be enough, our troops must be
provided with better infrastructure, logistics and armaments to win the
war.
India’s failure to develop infrastructure has been
the result of a flawed policy of several decades and bureaucratic hurdles.
According to reports, most times the concerned Ministry was unable to use the
allotted funds because of sluggish or zero construction activities along the
border areas. The monitoring system, too, was faulty. In China, its Army
controls the border while in India, the Army, the Assam Rifles, Border Security
Force (BSF) and the ITBP share vigil duties. The presence of multiple agencies
delays the work. It appears that the present Government has earmarked several
important projects along the borders and the amount is also sanctioned. Now,
only the work needs to be expedited.
China, which is working hard to become a
superpower, has also encircled India. It has compelled Sri Lanka to lease out
the Hambantota port. Pakistan’s Gwadar port, too, is under its control.
Besides, Maldives leased out two of its islands and China has positioned its
nuclear-powered submarine at Marao Islands. A signal Intelligence unit has also
been installed at the Coco Islands of Myanmar.
Prime Minister KP Oli of Nepal is a communist
leader who is very close to China. His main aim is to end Nepal’s dependence on
India and inculcate close relationship with the bigger neighbour. Beijing has
also financed a container shipping facility in Chittagong port of Bangladesh.
It has inaugurated a naval base at Djibouti in August 2017. Hence, India
should be careful and must take remedial measures to counter such imperialism.
As a first step, we must strengthen our forces and
then try to inculcate friendly relations with countries who feel threatened
because of China. These include Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. The United
States, too, wants to check the increasing strength of China. Analysts claim
that smaller nations like Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh among others also
feel defenceless but are in no position to challenge China. India can try to
infuse confidence among them too.
(The writer is member, United Services Institute of
India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)
Aviation & Defence Universe
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Home » Uncategorized » India trying to reduce Chinese influence on Maldives
India Trying To Reduce Chinese Influence On Maldives
·Extends 1.4 Bn budgetary support
By JK Verma
New Delhi. 23 December 2018. Prime Minister Modi, after meeting visiting President Mohamed Ibrahim Solih of Republic of Maldives, announced that “India will extend financial assistance of $1.4 billion to the Maldives in the form of budgetary support, currency swap agreements and concessional lines of credit, for its social and economic development.”
It was the first foreign visit of President Solih, after taking over on 17 November 2018, as President of Maldives, which consists of 26 atolls and about 200 islands. Solih came to India on a three day visit with a high level delegation and stayed in President House as a special guest, which indicates the close relationship between both the countries.
Besides the financial assistance, India and Maldives also signed agreements/MoUs and joint declarations on visa arrangements, cultural cooperation, mutual cooperation to improve the ecosystem for the enhancement of business of agricultural products and joint declarations in the fields of information and communication technologies. Both countries also agreed to work jointly on several fields including health, investments, tourism etc.
India also offered 1000 extra seats to Maldivian people for training in diverse fields including judiciary, policing, community development, information technology, media, leadership, audit and financial management just to name few. Due to relaxation on visa rules more people can come for medical treatment and the parents can accompany their children, who are studying in India.
Both the countries also agreed on the maintenance of peace and tranquility in Indian Ocean Region and delivered a terse message to China, that they would not allow their territory to be used against the interests of other country. It was also decided to increase patrolling, aerial surveillance, exchange of information and capacity building in Indian Ocean Region.
India and Maldives also agreed to fight terrorism. It is important for India and other democratic countries, as influence of Wahabism was increasing rapidly in the island nation. The Middle East countries have pumped massive economic assistance in Male, which resulted rise of Islamic fundamentalism and extremism. Number of mosques and Madrassas were considerably increased and it resulted in young Maldivian youths joining the the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) which is also known as Islamic State (IS). 200 radicalised young Maldivians had gone to Iraq and Syria to join ISIL from the population of approximately 440000 only. It clearly indicates the high level of radicalisation of the country which is dangerous for the whole region including India.
The visiting president also reaffirmed the ‘India-First Policy’ and mentioned that the archipelago nation will work closely with India. President Solih also invited India’s private sector to work in the development of housing, healthcare, education, tourism, water and sewerage as well as infrastructure development of the island nation. It is important that Indian private sector grab the opportunity and involve itself in the development of the Maldives, which is struggling with repayment of massive loan given by China mainly during the presidency of tinpot dictator Abdulla Yameen, who helped Beijing by giving all the contracts with ulterior motive of undermining Indian interests. In fact President Yameen cancelled a contract of GMR, a subsidiary of Bangalore-based GMR Infrastructure Ltd. The Indian company won the contract after a global tender in 2010 to upgrade the airport and construct a new terminal.
The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) won elections by disparaging the mounting Chinese debt on the country; hence President Solih may cancel few contracts given to Chinese companies on unreasonable terms and conditions. President Solih also promised to reassess all the contracts. These cancelled contracts as well as new orders can also be awarded to Indian firms.
President Solih defeated President Yameen in an election in October 2018 although it was projected that Yameen who imposed emergency, raided Solih’s election office, denied visas to international observers including India, arrested and imprisoned his half brother and former ruler Abdul Gayoom, Supreme Court judge and police commissioner, will not permit the election commission to hold free and fair elections. Analysts also mentioned that Yameen would manipulate the elections as he had overt as well as covert support of China.
Nonetheless The Ministry of State Security (MSS), the intelligence and security agency of China, which look after the internal as well as foreign intelligence, had rightly analysed that if the elections are rigged there will be very strong international condemnation, hence it advised Yameen to contest the elections on the basis of developmental work completed during his presidency. However Maldives, which has a total population of about 440,000 people, was much against the massive construction activities and rising debt which may be between $1.5 billion to $3 billion.
Mohamed Nasheed, who served as president of Maldives from 2008 to 2012 and was the first democratically elected president and founder member of Maldivian Democratic Party, stated that Chinese Ambassador gave him in writing that Chinese loan on Maldives was $3.2.billion dollars. However later Chinese asserted that the figure was highly “exaggerated.”
Even after the announcement of election results in which Solih of MDP defeated Yameen, the analysts apprehended that the latter would not handover the power. Hence the Indian, Ministry of External Affairs issued a congratulatory press release even before the formal announcement of election results by the commission. Not only India, Sri Lanka, United Kingdom and United States all congratulated Solih. The US Mission in Maldives issued the press release on September 24 congratulating Solih on his victory also mentioned that “We expect all parties to respect the will of the Maldivian people and support a peaceful transition of power through the November 17 inauguration”. The press release was tantamount to a veiled threat, that power should be transferred as per the scheduled programme.
In view of the strategic location of Maldives, China was increasing its influence in the country which was a cause of concern not only to India but for USA, Japan and other countries. China has opened an Observation Station at Makunudhoo, which can accommodate even submarine. China which has already taken two islands, is constructing a military base there.
The relations between India and Maldives declined, when Yameen extended undue favours to China and also imposed emergency in the country, which lasted 45 days. China, which considers India as its prospective adversary, constantly makes efforts to encircle India. Beijing made huge investments in India’s neighbourhood. Bangladesh already surrendered Chittagong port to China while Beijing has established a signal intelligence station at Coco Islands of Myanmar after taking it on lease. Recently China and Myanmar also signed a multibillion dollar agreement to develop a deep seaport in Kyaukpyu in Rakhine state. The port will be near to Vishakhapatnam port where India is developing a submarine base. Although Myanmar has reduced Chinese investment but the port is very important strategically.
Sri Lanka had to surrender Hambantota port to China on lease as it failed to repay the loan installments. Maldives had already given unspecified number of islands to China and it constructed a naval base in Marao Islands, where a missile fitted nuclear powered submarine is deployed. Pakistan which is passing through an economic disaster because of abetting terrorism in its neighbourhood, has already given control of Gwadar port. In fact China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which was projected as a great achievement will be a death knell for Pakistan. China has also opened its first overseas naval base at Djibouti in 2017.
Besides Maldives Chinese intelligence agency MSS also got another jolt in Sri Lanka where a constitutional crisis erupted when President Maithripala Sirisena dismissed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and appointed Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister. However Sri Lankan Parliament and judiciary rejected the move and Ranil Wickremesinghe had to be reinstated. President Sirisena and Rajapaksa are known to be pro-China while Wickremesinghe has soft corner for India. Chinese intelligence which is known for its ruthless moves will not digest these two defeats so easily and will make all-out efforts to retain its hold in Male.
It is a diplomatic victory of India that the newly elected President Solih paid first visit to India and also mentioned that the country would adhere to ‘India first policy’ but Beijing would also try to win over the new president. China is already working on numerous important infrastructure projects inclusive of renovation of the airport and a bridge to link the airport with Male. The 70 percent loan of the island nation is of China and it has to pay an installment of $ 92 million a year to Beijing. The gross domestic product of Maldives is around $ 3.9 billion, while the annual revenue is $1.5 billion only, hence it will be difficult for Maldives to repay the debt. It will be difficult for India to compete with cash rich China therefore India should take the support of wealthy countries like Japan and European Union. The lone super power America will also like to contain China and extend its assistance to India.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Many
are apprehensive that the Chinese Government is determined to wipe out Islam
from the country. It is instructive that petro-dollar rich countries are not
coming out to condemn Beijing
There are no human rights in
Communist China and
it quells all types of protests ruthlessly but the protests related to
religion, secession, democracy and terrorism are crushed more brutally. There
are reports about oppression of Christians and other religions but the Government-sponsored
repression of Muslims all over China especially in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous
Region (XUAR) is unparalleled.
According to a study conducted by the Pew Research Centre in 2009,
there were about 21 million Muslims in China, which is more than 1.6 per cent
of Chinese population and it is an important minority group in the country.
However, analysts claim that Muslim population is much more and it is in
between two to three per cent of the total Chinese population. Out of 55
recognised minority groups in China, 10 groups are of Sunni Muslims. Although
significant Muslim populations live in Ningxia, Gansu and Qinghai regions, the
biggest concentration of Muslims is in Xinjiang region. Reports suggest that
there are only 36,000 religious places for Muslims and about 45,000 imams in
the country and their number is fast-depleting. The Pew Research Centre also
claims that the Muslim women fertility rate is at a low 1.7. Hence, the Muslim
population is plummeting in the country.
Approximately, 11 million Uyghur Muslims live in Xinjiang
autonomous region. However, the word, autonomous is misleading and there is no
autonomy in the region. Thousands of Muslims are forcibly kept in detention
centres and re-education camps. Human Rights Watch mention that 800,000 Muslims
are languishing in these detention centres while Uyghur leaders residing out of
China claim that more than one million Uyghurs are imprisoned. There were cases
where both husband and wife were jailed and children were sent to overcrowded
orphanages.
Analysts mention that Government agencies take large number of
Uyghur Muslims to these re-education camps and brainwash them against Islam and
its teachings. Communist ideologues claim that Muslim masses have to be
re-educated as poisonous religious teachings have intoxicated their minds and
it is essential to evict those teachings from their thought process. They
further claim that re-education is not a punishment, and hence, no judicial
procedure is required. Those selected for ‘re-education’ are kept in these
camps till their minds are either numbed and/or purged of Islamic teachings and
if required they are often sent repeatedly to these camps. Life is difficult in
these centres — reports that beatings, torture and the withholding of victuals
are commonly used techniques by the authorities to subdue religious-minded
Muslims. Human rights activists assert that President Xi Jinping has adopted
the repressive policies of Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution.
In August 2016, Chen Quanguo, who was party secretary in Tibet
from 2011 to 2016, was transferred and posted at XUAR. Chen was by all accounts
a contemptible apparatchik and suppressed Tibetans mercilessly. His predecessor
in XUAR Zhang Chunxianwas considered ‘too polite’. After his appointment, Chen
started the repression of Kazakhs, Uyghurs and other minorities. He constructed
numerous extrajudicial imprisonment camps and enhanced surveillance of Muslims
through advanced technology including using the national DNA database and
biometrics of persons in the age group 12-65. The number of police stations
were increased and stringent regulations were enforced under which religious
freedom was restricted. Chen started implementation of the “Strike Hard”
policy, initiated by the Government in 2014 but was inactive in XUAR. Chen also
issued a draconian “de-extremification” ordinance in April 2017.
At few places de-radicalisation and re-education centres are
camouflaged as vocational training centres and even as educational
institutions. A US-based non-profit organisation claims that the Chinese
Government maintains the profiles of minorities and persecutes them on mere
suspicion. Several ethnic minorities are prohibited to go abroad. Muslims are
not allowed to eat halal meat. Storekeepers are instructed to mix non-halal
meat in halal meat and if anybody asks specifically about halal meat, s/he is imprisoned.
Muslims are prohibited to keep beards, mosques are being closed, keeping a fast
during Ramzan is effectively a crime and in some well-documented cases Muslims
are reportedly being compelled to sell liquor. Beijing’s critics allege the
Chinese Government has surpassed the world’s most repressive regimes in putting
restrictions on a religious group. The de-radicalisation camps and re-education
centres are being compared by activists the world over to ‘concentration
camps’. Mosques in Ningxia region are also prohibited theazaan (calls for
prayer) and selling Islamic books is also banned; domes/minaretsatop of mosques
are being removed and Arabic schools and religious teachings in mosques is
barred.
The Chinese Government has also started a new practice from
December 2017, which calls for Government officials to stay for five
consecutive days in the houses of Muslim families every two months. During the
five-day stays, officials ask questions about and closely observe the daily
routine, religious practices and political views of the family. Officials also
compel the residents to learn Mandarin, sing the National Anthem and
‘appreciate’ Communism. The five-day homestay programme is part of a larger
policy under which the XUAR Government has sent 200,000 cadres to the houses of
Muslim citizens to observe and make efforts to assimilate them into Han
culture.
Chen’s solution to the problem seems to be to either ensure
secessionist elements are either eliminated or forced to change their religious
and political beliefs to accept the Government line. Chen has the full support
of the Communist Party of China and President Xi who introduced a Sinicization
policy in 2015 under which minorities were compelled to adopt Han Chinese
culture. The policy will change every aspect of life of the minorities,
including food, education, language, lifestyle, politics, religion, philosophy,
culture, science and technology and even their value system.
Xi intends to integrate diverse nationalities and enforce a
pan-China Han identity. This policy intends to obliterate racial, cultural and
linguistic diversity. China, which is an ancient civilisation, has more than
290 non-Mandarin languages and it will be difficult to integrate all but the
effort is on. ‘Sinicization’ includes assimilation and integration which
critics allege is the cultural imperialism of China which it intends to impose
not only within the country but also in other East and South East Asian
countries under their dominance.
Religious minorities, especially Muslims, are apprehensive that Xi
is determined to wipe out anything must state-approved Islam from China. It is
interesting to note that petro-dollar rich Islamic countries, which are the
first to criticise democratic, inclusive states for their alleged discrimination
against minorities, are neither criticisingnor condemning these moves by the
Chinese Government. Muslim majority countries like Indonesia and Turkey are
also observing silence. Pakistan, an Islamic country which claims that its Army
is “a follower of none but Allah”, does not react to these developments either.
Why doesn’t Islamabad, instead of wasting time on raising the Kashmir issue at
various international fora, raise its voice against Chinese oppression of
Muslims in that country?
The democratic world needs to come together and think of a
sanctions regime against China so it is compelled to stop these inhuman
policies towards its minority communities. Why are Muslim countries, usually so
vocal on issues of the rights of their co-religionists, unwilling to criticise
China? For starters, the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) should pass
resolution to force China to restore the human rights of Muslims in China, and
if China does not respond, the OIC countries should stop trade with China.
Beijing is committing atrocities on its Muslim communities in the name of
curbing terrorism but the Chinese Government should punish only terrorists and
not all Muslims. The world community should adopt a long-term strategy to deal
with China and its hegemonic ambitions which apparently extend to establishing
cultural hegemony.
(The
writer is member, United Services Institute of India, and Institute for Defence
Studies and Analyses)
AAKROSH
ASIAN JOURNAL ON
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS
July 2018 Volume 21 Number 80
India should
inculcate friendly relations with China: But be ready for confrontation
Prime Minister Modi has inculcated friendly relations with all neighbours
including China. He met Chinese president Xi several times in last for years.
In informal meeting several important issues including 73 days Doklam standoff
was discussed. It was decided that the defence forces of
both the countries should have more communications and adopt additional
confidence building measures. The Special Representatives, who already have had
twenty rounds of talks should try to pursue the border issues more vigorously.
There are several irritants between India and China: border disputes; Shelter
to Tibetan Refugees, together with Dalai Lama; India’s Special relations with
Bhutan; a rising trade imbalance; China’s close relations with Pakistan, etc.
However, efforts should be made by both the countries to resolve all issues
amicably. At present, China’s economy is five times bigger, and it spends six
to eight times more on defence in comparison to India. It is third- biggest
exporter of arms in world. China has also developed infrastructure in the
border areas, while India is far behind. Hence, India should inculcate friendly
relations with China but continue preparing for any eventuality as China is an
expansionist country.
Kautilya, statesman and philosopher, mentioned
in his book Arthashastra that ‘[Y]our
neighbour is your natural enemy and the neighbour’s neighbour is your friend, hence
India, which is surrounded by seven neighbours, including Afghanistan, must be vigilant.
Out of these neighbours, China is most powerful and, unfortunately, India has
several issues with China, including border disputes. (1)
Prime Minister Modi, who understands
the importance of neighbouring countries, including China, met Chinese
President Xi Jinping several times in the last four years. On 9th
June 2018, Modi held a bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping at the sidelines of
two-day summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at Qingdao.
In the meeting at Qingdao, China
agreed to supply hydrological data of the Brahmaputra River, as well as
permitted India to export non-Basmati rice and more pharmaceutical products to
China. Both leaders agreed to enhance bilateral trade from $ 84.44 billion to
$100 billion in 2020. Besides reviewing the overall bilateral relations, they
also evaluated the progress in implementing the decisions taken at Wuhan summit.
India was the only country in SCO to
raise its objections on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Modi, while
appreciating the importance of connectivity and infrastructure projects,
mentioned that projects must honour sovereignty of the other country.
Modi also held a two-day informal summit
with Xi Jinping at Wuhan, on 27 and 28 April, without any agenda or aides, pressure
of signing agreements or no anxiety of joint communiqué. The analysts claim
that both Modi and Xi met in September 2017 in Xiamen, while attending the
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit, and decided to
hold the informal meeting. Before
informal summit, Indian government also showed some overtures, as in February,
the cabinet secretary issued a directive to all government officials that they
should not attend any event organised by Tibetan leadership. Modi also
congratulated Xi on his re-election to presidency. China also reciprocated by
re-starting military exercises. (2)
The Western Theatre Command of People’s
Liberation Army (PLA), which is responsible for guarding Line of Control (LoC)
between India and China, has also announced that soon a Chinese military
delegation will visit India. The PLA spokesperson further mentioned that, at
present, both sides are busy in consulting each other on the details of the
forthcoming visit. The exchange of military delegations was suspended because
of 73-day Doklam standoff. The relations between both countries are normalizing
after the informal summit at Wuhan. (3)
Before the informal summit, National
Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale, Defence Minister
Nirmala Sitharaman and Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj also visited
China and met their counterparts and discussed diverse issues of common
interest. The summit was important as President Xi Jinping became very powerful
since the Chinese Parliament has abolished the two-term limit, making Xi president
and leader for life. (4)
The informal summit was important as several significant issues,
including 73-day Doklam standoff, were discussed. Doklam has been the gravest
border issue between India and China in the last 30 years, and not only this, the
Chinese state-controlled media issued wild threats of war to Delhi and
repeatedly reminded India about 1962 debacle. (5)
It was decided in the informal summit
that the defence forces of both the countries should have more communications
and adopt additional-confidence building measures and the special representatives
should try to pursue the border issues more vigorously. The meeting was held in
a cordial atmosphere, and in addition to border issues, numerous other topics,
including tourism, agriculture, entertainment, export of Hindi movies, trade
were discussed.
The rising trade imbalance in favour
of China, which became $51.1 billion in 2016-17, was also discussed. Modi
indicated that China, which has emerged as the biggest importer of agricultural
products in the world, should import more agricultural and pharmaceutical items
from India.
Irritants between India and China
China, which
has expansionist policies and wants to become super power, considers India as
its potential rival and views India’s progress with suspicion. Visibly it may
show friendship with Delhi, but clandestinely, it will continue weakening India.
Beijing helps and instigates Islamabad to create troubles in India. Unfortunately,
Pakistan alleges that India is responsible for its bifurcation and creation of
Bangladesh and is determined to take revenge and has waged a low intensity war
against its eastern neighbour. China which wants to weaken India, assists
Islamabad in its nefarious designs. The sinister Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) is supporting diverse terrorist outfits in India, especially in Kashmir. China
even supplied missiles to Pakistan so that it can stand against India with
confidence.
Border disputes and border trespasses
The basic
reasons behind border disputes are the British legacy and misreading of the
maps of the area which cover the highest mountains- a rough and inhospitable
terrain. India and China have 3,488 km-long borders, which are not demarcated
fully. China claims 90,000 KMs of Arunachal Pradesh, which it refers to as ‘South
Tibet’: apart from this, China also claims about 10,000 Sq K.Ms in Uttarakhand;
however, analysts point out that all these claims are for bargaining purposes
as China does not have any locus standi on these areas. China has forcibly
occupied Aksai Chin, which is a part of India. Pakistan has illegally handed
over Shaksgam Valley to China in 1963 for constructing Trans-Karakoram Tract. So
far, the special representatives of India and China had twenty rounds of talks,
but the matter remained unresolved. Besides these territorial disputes there
are also disagreements in the South China Sea.
Both countries
develop infrastructure up to the last point; hence, there are several trespasses
and skirmishes, as both are nuclear power nations and have strong armies hence
the situation becomes complex. At present India has deployed 120,000 defence personnel
and also announced to raise a new Mountain Strike Corps while China has posted 300,00
soldiers at the borders. (6)
Shelter to Tibetan Refugees, including
Dalai Lama
In 1950, China occupied
Tibet, but the local population revolted and 14th Dalai Lama took
asylum in India. China alleges that India assist Dalai Lama, who constituted
Tibetan government in exile in India. China also objects to the free movement
of Dalai Lama in India, especially in Arunachal Pradesh and abroad. However,
the present government has put some restrictions on Indian government officials
attending functions organised by Tibetan refugees, including Dalai Lama. Analysts
feel that Tibetan refugees, including Dalai Lama, have been a bone of
contention between India and China from last more than 60 years or more and
India should review its policy towards Tibetans staying in India.
Stapled Visas to residents of Arunachal
Pradesh & J&K
China issued
stapled visas to the residents of Arunachal Pradesh and J & K. After strong
protests, Beijing stopped issuing stapled visas to the residents of J & K
but continued stapled visas to the residents of Arunachal Pradesh. (7)
India’s relations with Nepal
China does not
like India’s special relations with Nepal. In his last term, Nepalese Prime
Minister K.P.S. Oli had signed trade treaty with China with the intention to
reduce its dependence on India. In the present term, Oli has paid a three-day
official visit to India in April and Prime Minister Modi also gave a two- day
visit in May 2018, but analysts feel that Oli is very close to China and his
statements were anti-India during election campaign as well as in his previous term
as prime minister. Oli is expected to visit China soon and apart from several
agreements between them, it is expected that China will help in building oil
storage facilities in the country and decision would be taken about the
construction of various projects in Nepal under te BRI. Although Oli visited
India first and claims that he will balance between India and China, relations
between Kathmandu and Beijing are much closer than relations between Kathmandu
and Delhi.
India’s Special relations with Bhutan
China is very critical of India’s age-old special
relationship with Bhutan. According to Article 2 of India-Bhutan Friendship
Treaty of 2007, both countries “shall cooperate closely with each other on
issues relating to their national interests. Neither Government shall allow the
use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and
interest of the other.” Hence it is the duty of Indian defence forces to defend
Bhutan from external forces, including China. In this way, Bhutan becomes a
protected state of India. India has influence on the foreign, defence and
commerce policies of Bhutan. India is the biggest donor of foreign aid to
Bhutan: in 2015-2016, India provided US$ 985 million in aid to Bhutan. India
operates three hydro power projects of 1,416 MW and three more power projects
of 2,129 MW are under construction. China has border disputes with Bhutan and
threaten latter for dire consequences but because of Indian back up Bhutan
feels safe. China, besides threatening, also tries to allure Bhutan to invest
in infrastructure projects, just to mitigate Indian influence. China also wants to open its diplomatic
mission in Bhutan. Indian intelligence agencies should keep an eye on
increasing China’s influence in Bhutan. Generally, Indian projects are delayed,
which causes problems. Hence, government should try that projects are completed
well within time.
China has encircled India
Beijing, which considers
Delhi as its potential rival, is very active in the Indian Ocean and more or
less encircled India as it has made huge economic investments in India’s
neighbourhood. Myanmar leased strategic Coco Islands to China, where it constructed
a signal intelligence station. China also has control over Chittagong port of
Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka became victim of China’s debt trap as Beijing
invested enormously in big infrastructure projects and ultimately Sri-Lanka
failed to repay the debt and had to handover Hambantota port to China on 99-years
lease. China established a naval base in Marao Islands of Maldives in Indian
Ocean in 2010 and deployed a nuclear- powered, missile fitted submarine. China
has established the naval base under the garb of constructing an observatory
which will monitor the weather conditions. China has assured that it will
invest more than US$ 50 billion in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Pakistan will also have to invest huge amounts in various projects connecting the
CPEC. China is giving loans to Pakistan for these projects on high interest
rates, and the contracts of the projects will also be given to Chinese
companies at rate higher than the market, as in most of the cases global tenders
will not be floated. In this way, the CPEC will be a deathtrap for Pakistan,
and China will occupy not only Gwadar Port but some arable land of Pakistan.
India is rich in soft power, had glorious past, Bollywood and vivacious
democracy but China has hard cash and ready to spend on the development of
infrastructure in other countries. Hence the cash-starved countries are more
inclined towards China than India. (8)
India objects its encirclement and also
tried to inculcate friendship with countries near China, including Japan, South
Korea and Vietnam. Japan issued a statement in favour of India at the time of
Doklam standoff, mentioning that the status quo should be maintained. The United
States also stated that the dispute between India and China must be resolved
amicably. China has officially inaugurated its first overseas
naval base at Djibouti on August 1, 2017. (9)
Water dispute
China has built
dams on the Brahmaputra River, which is also known as Tsangpo River in Tibet,
although India objected on construction of these dams. But in absence of any
treaty China has not given any heed to India’s protests.
China blocks India’s membership in the NSG
India wanted to
have the membership of 48-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), but China has
blocked Delhi’s entry on the pretext that India has not signed the Non-proliferation
Treaty (NPT). China also pleads the case of Pakistan for the membership of NSG
as Pakistan also possesses nuclear warheads and not signed NPT, but Pakistan
has very poor record and Pakistani scientist Dr. AbdulQadeer Khan, the father of Pakistani nuclear bomb, sold
secrets of nuclear bomb to North Korea, Libya and Iran. Hence, world body will
never allow Pakistan to Join NSG. In this way, China is blocking India’s entry
into the NSG and also showing to Pakistan that Beijing is doing sincere efforts
to get Islamabad to become an NSG member while, at the same time, stopping its
sworn enemy India from becoming one.
.Case of Masood
Azhar
China has
blocked efforts of several countries, including India, to designate Maulana
Masood Azhar, chief of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) as a global terrorist under
Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee of the 15 members United Nations Security Council.
JeM is a Pakistan-based terrorist outfit, and Masood is a Pakistan national. China
by helping Masood in United Nations shows its assistance to Pakistan and it
makes Islamabad and Masood more determined to infiltrate terrorists in
India.
China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC)
The CPEC is an important part of President Xi Jinping’s dream
project BRI. China has promised to invest huge amount in this project, and
Pakistan has projected as if CPEC will address all economic woes of the
country. Nevertheless, India opposed CPEC as it passes through Pakistan
Occupied Kashmir (POK) which is an integral part of India and Pakistan has
occupied it illegally. In fact, construction of the CPEC is direct intervention
in Indian territory, and hence Delhi has lodged a strong protest with China.
India is laying more emphasis on the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar
(BCIM) Corridor. Although China stated that the BCIM Corridor is an important
part of the BRI, India, while refuting the claim, mentioned that BCIM Corridor
was much before the BRI. India is more focused on the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) trilateral highway project (India-Myanmar-Thailand), which
may be significant for its ‘Act East’ policy. The analysts claim that as China
is willing to extend CPEC up to Afghanistan, it will be difficult for India to
remain averse to BRI all the time.
Pakistan government under pressure from China passed
Gilgit-Baltistan Order on May 21, 2018. The order snatches powers from Gilgit
& Baltistan Council and gives wide powers to the prime minister of
Pakistan. China has promised to invest a huge amount in CPEC and some portion
of CPEC passes through Gilgit and Baltistan (GB). Hence, Beijing compelled Islamabad
to pass this order as China was unwilling to invest money in disputed areas. It
is expected that soon Pakistan will declare GB as its fifth state. India
summoned deputy high commissioner of Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi and
lodged strong protest as entire J&K, including GB, is an integral part of
India and Pakistan is not legally empowered to make any changes in the present
state. Residents of GB also protested against the order, and the police had to
resort to lathi-charge and firing, in which several persons were injured. China
avoided making any comment and simply stated that CPEC is an economic project
and Kashmir problem is a bilateral issue and India and Pakistan have to resolve
it. (10)
India’s exploration of oil and
gas with Vietnam in South China Sea
Vietnam approved a two-year extension
to the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) to explore oil in the
South China Sea. The permission was first given in 2006, despite strong
objections from China. It is a vast area and besides China and Vietnam, Taiwan,
Brunei, Malaysia and Philippines also stake claims in the area. These countries
are staking their claim from decades, but as China has strengthened its claim,
all countries, especially Vietnam, have also toughened their stand. China is
very critical of the move and considers oil exploration in the area is illegal.
The analysts claim that the exploration in the area is more strategic than
commercial.
Although trade between China and Vietnam is growing,
but there is a deep distrust between both countries and China does not like
Vietnam’s growing security relationship with the United States, Japan and
India. Vietnam is enhancing its defence and commercial relations with India and
wants Delhi to play more active and effective role in South China Sea. As China
is encircling India, Delhi is also escalating relations with Vietnam and
provided naval patrol boats and promised to supply Brahmos cruise missiles etc.
However there is some objection from Russia, therefore, Vietnam may purchase
Brahmos missiles from Russia instead of India. Delhi has also offered US$500
million credit line to Vietnam and will also equip two Petya- class frigates of
Vietnamese Navy with requisite weapons. (11)
Way Ahead
India has some tactical advantages at
Doklam and at few other places, and defence analysts claim that PLA needs more
than 200,000 soldiers to evict Indian army and capture that area. It is not
easy to deploy such large contingent with arms and ammunitions in that deserted
area stealthily as Indian forces, particularly intelligence agencies, are much
more vigilant after the debacle of 1962 and clashes at Nathu-la in September
and Cho-la in October 1967. Here it will also not be wise to remind Beijing that
in 1967, PLA losses were much more than losses suffered by Indian troops, as this
will irritate Beijing. China has already built roads, bridges, railways,
airfields etc., on the border areas: hence, it is in a much stronger position
than India. Delhi should also construct roads, bridges, railway lines and
airfields on India-China borders. At present, numerous projects of Border Road Organization
(BRO) including roads, bridges and culverts on sensitive India-China border,
are in doldrums and running behind schedule. The Central government empowered
the Director General of the BRO to purchase construction material up to 100 crores.
It is expected that this empowerment would enhance the pace of construction of
sensitive projects. Government must keep
a stringent vigil on BRO so that the construction work does not suffer because
of rigmaroles of procedures. (12)
On 2nd June, 2018 India
successfully test-fired surface-to-surface, nuclear-capable Agni-5, which has a
strike range of 5,000 KMs. The Defence Research an Development Organisation (DRDO)
scientists mentioned that all the electronic devices fitted in the missile
worked properly. In Agni-5, the most advanced technology was used in navigation
and guidance, engine and weapons. The missile has strengthened India’s defence,
and India must continue strengthening itself so that it can negotiate for peace
with strength. (13)
Recently, India also accomplished its
biggest air exercise, where it showed that hundreds of aircraft can be shifted
from western borders to eastern sector, facing China.
The PLA is larger than Indian defence
forces, but Beijing has also more obligations than Indian troops. China has
common borders with 14 countries and has unfriendly relations with 8 neighbours.
Hence it cannot shift forces from these borders to China-India borders.
Secondly, China, which has global aspirations, is threatening neighbouring
countries and so the neighbouring countries do not trust China, while India has
an image of a peaceful nation. India should continue assisting its neighbours
honestly and genuinely. (14)
China opposes India’s membership in the
NSG as at present, China has special position in Asia in nuclear technology and
it does not want to share that position with India. Nonetheless, both New Delhi and Beijing can
help each other; China can assist India in getting the membership of NSG, while
India can help China in getting the membership of Missile Technology Control
Regime (MTCR), which is a multilateral export control regime of 35 countries.
India got its membership while the membership was refused to China as MTCR
members felt that Chinese policies are not transparent and it helps other
countries to develop ballistic missiles.
China is improving its relations both
with the US as well as with Russia. Hence India has to be careful. Russia is
becoming close to China due to the sanctions imposed by Western countries,
while the US understands that North Korea has covert backing of China. India was the only country which openly
discarded Xi’s dream project BRI, which covers Asia as well as Europe. After
India’s rejection, other countries, including the US, Japan and European Union had
also raised doubts as BRI is heavily tilted towards Chinese companies and
smaller countries will have to take loans at higher rates from Chinese
establishments and it will be difficult for them to repay. BRI will not only
make China economically strong but it will also strengthen China strategically.
Beijing is also concerned about meetings between India, the US, Japan and
Australia where these four nations discussed about developing a substitute for
the BRI. Hence, China wants India’s help in accepting the BRI and also wants to
distance Delhi from Washington. Indian policymakers must keep a balance between
its relations with major powers of the world.
India is an active member of ASEAN,
which meets semi-annually and deals with security, political, economic, and
socio-cultural development of Southeast Asian countries. ASEAN is an important
forum. Not only this, India has excellent relations with other important
countries of the region including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt and Israel
which is Delhi’s strength. (15)
Indian security agencies should also
make sincere efforts to counter Chinese information warfare. Select newspapers
publish distorted news which is picked up by international media including the Indian
media. The South China Morning Post
of 20 May, 2018 published an article captioned “How Chinese Mining
in the Himalayas May Create a New Military Flashpoint with India”. The
article was widely quoted in the Indian media and thus created an erroneous
impression in the country. The report is not based on facts, and there is no
large scale mining in Lhuntse County. The day after this report, the Global Times contradicted the report and
also mentioned that Chinese people did not trust the report while the Indian
media was ‘extremely exited’ about it. The Indian media should first verify a
report before publishing it as nowadays, there is more disinformation then
information.
There is lot of scope for trade increase
between India and China. In 2017, bilateral trade between India and China
enhanced to US$ 84.5 billion, excluding trade between India and Hong Kong,
which is about US$ 34 billion. The bilateral trade can enhance up to $100
billion.
China, which has global ambitions,
would not like to waste its resources fighting with India. The Chinese economy
is passing through a lean period, and in the case of a war, it will go further
down. China will also lose the big Indian market. The Indian economy, which is
rising steadily, will be ruined. China will also not like that India join the US
camp as it will be detrimental for Beijing. Not only this, India should also remember that the present
US President, Trump, is unpredictable; hence, India should keep good relations
with US but should not trust trump.(16)
India is a big market for Chinese
products, and China has surplus foreign exchange and it may like to invest it
in India. It is good for both countries to be friendly, but Delhi should never
forget that China has expansionist policies. So India must keep itself prepared
for any eventuality. Unfortunately, at present Indian defence forces need a lot
of replenishments as the armaments have become stale. The present government is
purchasing and trying to produce several articles under its “Make in India”
programme, but procurement of arms and ammunition is a cumbersome process and
it consumes lot of time and resources.
Prime Minister Modi, while delivering
keynote address at 17th Asia Security Summit, which is also known as
‘Shangri-la-Dialogue’ mentioned that ‘Asia and the world will have a better
future when India and China work together in trust and confidence.’ Modi, while
emphasizing India-China relations, also stated that no country has so ‘many
layers’ in relations as there are between India and China. Modi, without
mentioning the BRI, also pointed out about the dangers of taking loans which
may not be good. The state-run TV
channels in China also appreciated the statement and projected it as a positive
statement. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj also met her Chinese
counterpart on 4 June on the sidelines of the BRICS ministerial conference at
South Africa. In the meeting, both leaders conversed how to maintain peace and
enhance multilateral cooperation.Frequent
meetings of top leaders as well as of other functionaries would resolve the
differences before they crop up and even if differences surface, they can be
reconciled amicably and the situation would not deteriorate like Doklam
standoff.
Indian security experts are worried
because of the PLA flexing its muscles, especially in Indian Ocean, but India
deliberately and diplomatically avoided any confrontation, and not only this,
India also does not want any conflict
between US and China in Indian Ocean.
India also blocked entry of Australia
in the Malabar Exercise 2017, in which India, Japan and US maritime forces took
part. In this seven-day exercise about 95 aircraft, 16 ships and two submarines
participated. The US wanted to include Australia, while China was opposed to it,
hence India’s opposition must have pleased China. (17)
On the basis of US Trade
Representative (USTR) report on China, President Trump imposed 25 percent
tariff on 1,300 items imported from China, worth US$ 46 billion. Beijing, without
wasting any time, reciprocated and increased duty on 106 items imported from
Washington, costing US$50 billion. The US is threatening more restrictions on
imports from China. As US and China are world’s biggest importers and exporters
of goods, their trade war will affect all the countries including India. On the
trade dispute between China and the US, India remained impartial, although
Delhi suggested that China can import Soya and sugar from India, as China’s
agricultural imports from US are worth about US$ 20 billion. Analysts mention
that because of terse trade war between Beijing and Washington, China is
strengthening its relations with Japan, India and other countries. Hence policy planners in India should keep
this in mind that once trade disputes between the US and China are resolved,
the latter will again move towards the former. (18)
China has deep pockets and
expansionist policies; it wants to become global power soon and considers that
India, with its huge population and vast resources, may challenge it. So on one
hand, it wants to restrict India’s progress and on the other, it continues
encircling it. Indian policy planners
are also aware that the Chinese economy is five times bigger than Indian
economy and it spends six to eight times more on defence in comparison to
India. Not only this, China produces several types of military equipment
indigenously and recently emerged as the third-biggest exporter of arms in the
world, after overriding France. It also
exported defence equipments of more than US$ 7,919 million to several countries,
including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Venezuela. However, Pakistan is the
biggest importer of arms from China (worth US$3,016 million). India spends
approximately two-thirds of its defence budget on routine expenditures,
including pay and allowances of defence personnel, while China spends more
money on importing cutting-edge technology and on research and development of
armaments. Hence, it will not be wise on the part of India to struggle at this
stage. India for few more years should invest in defence preparedness, should
improve infrastructures at the borders and must avoid any confrontation.
Beside a few irritants, there are several
common points between the two Asian giants. India and China are both ancient
civilizations and have cultural relations for centuries. Both
are rising economies and have huge population and sizable number of people are
living below the poverty line. Hence both the countries must end the
suspicions and should inculcate friendly relations and utilise
their resources in the economic development of their countrymen.
Prime Minister Modi has rightly stated at
Singapore in his recent visit that ‘The world is convinced that 21st century
belongs to Asia’ and the Asians should also realise it. He also mentioned that
‘Asia has seen major progress’ and that ‘we need to work towards making this
century ours.’ Hence both India and China must live in peace so that the
massive populations of both the countries achieve economic progress. (19)
President Xi Jingping emerged most
powerful leader after the present Congress re-elected him and passed resolution
that he can continue for rest of his life. However, intelligence sources reveal
that there were already six attempts to kill him. The opposition leaders also
tried to overthrow him, and although he subdued the opposition, the possibility
that he is assassinated or overthrown cannot be ruled out completely. So Indian
policy planners should also try to inculcate friendly relations with the
persons who may succeed Xi Jingping.
In this world, soft power can play
vital role in improving the relations between different countries. As both
India and China are neighbours and there have been cultural exchanges from
olden days, soft power can still perform a positive task. Soft power cannot
unravel contentious issues, but it can inculcate better perception and appreciation
of others’ viewpoints. Gautam Bambawale, Indian Ambassador to China, sometime
back mentioned that there should be more people-to-people contact and both the
countries should not get restricted by controversial issues like the CPEC. Contact
should be established at various levels, including the leadership level, the official
level and also the people-to-people level. There should be more exchange of
tourists and more Bollywood movies should be exported. Even President Xi told
Modi that he watched Indian movie Dangal.
China has developed Confucius Institutes which are attracting large number of
foreign students. China is number 25 in Soft Power 30 index, 2017, by Portland.
Unfortunately, India could not get the place in this ranking. India can develop
Yoga in China. There can be more exchange of students. In 2016, more than 18,000
Indian students went to China for studies. In the same way India should also
try to attract more Chinese students. The residents of eastern states of India
where Chinese companies would invest can also visit various provinces of China,
and Chinese can visit these states more regularly and frequently. If there is
more people-to-people contact people will assess the issues independently and
will not be guided by press reports which may or may not be true.
The analysts also claim the basic
cause of tense relations between India and China is misunderstanding. The
public of both the countries gets information only through media and often the
reports are biased. The public of each country needs to know more about other
country, and the analysts feel that intelligence departments of both the
countries can play a vital role. Each country can appoint more experts of the other
country in intelligence departments so that they make factual assessments about
the thinking of that country, which will help policy planners to formulate
realistic policy towards other country. (20)
In the beginning, China also made
significant gestures to improve relations with India. In 2014, when Indian
Ambassador Ashok Kantha presented his credentials, Xi met him and during talks,
he mentioned that he wants to not only strengthen India- China relations on a bilateral
plank but also intensify cooperation on regional and international issues. Not
only this, Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao attended India’s Republic Day
reception on January 26 in Beijing and in his speech, eulogized India China
relations. China also withdrew its
troops from Daulat Beg after initial invasion. However, India could not assess
China’s desire and remained suspicious about its acts.
Indian policy planners should also
come out from 1962 syndrome and must eschew the suspicion towards China and
should try to strengthen economic relations, none of which is feasible unless
there is flexibility in the approach of both courtiers. Xi promised to invest US$20
billion in India within five years; however, far less has been invested so far in
India.
Both countries should relax visa
conditions, connectivity should be increased and there should be more direct
flights. The policy planners must fix long-term as well as short- term goals
with regard to India-China relations.
India must maintain peace and
tranquility not only at the borders but also in its relations with China. India should also try to
inculcate friendship with neighbouring countries as well as countries like US,
Japan and Vietnam. India should also strengthen its defence forces, and the
infrastructure on India-China border should be constructed on war footing. If
India strengthens itself, the chances of a war becomes bleak as China will
understand that war will damage both countries and must be avoided.
In a nutshell, there are a few disputes
between India and China which needs careful handling, but both countries should
continue enhancing their economic ties so that the prevailing diplomatic and
strategic distrust is mitigated and both countries become true friends. It is
not difficult in the present era as European countries that fought bitter wars
in the past are living peacefully and contributing in the progress and welfare
of each other.
At present the chances of a
full-scale war between India and China are remote as China is also aware that
India has strengthened itself after the debacle of 1962 and it proved its
mettle in 1965 (with Pakistan) , 1967 (with China) and in 1971 (again with
Pakistan).
NOTES AND REFERENCES
(1)Ancient
History Encyclopedia, a non-profit educational company created in 2009 by Jan
van der Crabben.
(2)Shashank Joshi: India China: Why is Modi meeting Xi now? BBC,26 April, 2018
(3)Pioneer. ‘Post-Doklam,
First Chinese Military Delegation to visit India;
2June, 2018
(4)J K Verma “All Weather Friend China Snubs Pakistan”
Aviation- defence- universe, 29 April
2018
(5)Op cit, n 2
(6)Op cit, n 3
(7)Prabhash
K Dutta: “Beyond Doka La: 10 irritants in India-China relation” India Today 2nd
July, 2017
South China Morning Post: “International EditionIndia’s
Prime MinisterModi navigates path
between China and US on regional security “ 2nd June 2018
(9)Op cit, n 7
(10) J K Verma “ Pakistan tries to merge
Gilgit and Baltistan” Aviation and Defence Universe dated 1st June 2018
Mai Ngyen, Nidhi Verma, Sanjeev Miglani: “
Vietnam renews India oil deal in tense South China Sea Reuters 6 July , 2017
(12)J K Verma “Doklam Standoff: A diplomatic &
Reasonable Indian Stand Aviation- defence-universe: 28 August, 2017 and
republished in The United Services Institution of India (USI) & Chennai
Centre for China Studies
(15)Bijoy Ghosh: India Must Understand the challenge
of China and Not Confront Any Neighbour: The Hindu Business Line 26 March, 2017
(16 )Op cit, n 12
(17 )Op cit, n 8
(18)Sharmila
Kantha “ India will Struggle to Profit from the US-China Trade War ;
The Wire
(19)Geeta Mohan ‘ 21st century belongs to Asia, Says
PM Modi in Singapore:
India Today 1 June, 2018
(20)Tridivesh Singh Maini ‘Can Soft Power Help
Repair China-India Ties?’ The Diplomat 10 February , 2018
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT
CHANGE THEM
India-Nepal-China : A
Sandwich Nepal Enjoys Being In!
·PM Oli is exploiting anti-India
feelings but knows Nepal cannot progress without India
New Delhi. 04 July 2018. When it comes to the
Himalayas the trinity of India-Nepal-China seems the most complex and when it
comes to geopolitics of the region Nepal looks like the happy tomato in the
sandwich . Trying to balance between the two big wigs on its either side, Nepal
has a tough path to tread on , but not an impossible one.
Prime
Minister of Nepal K.P. Sharma Oli returned from China on recently after
completion of a successful five day trip, although he made his first three day
official visit to India in April and after Oli’s visit Prime
Minister Modi also reciprocated by visiting Nepal.
Oli who is close to China
signed a transit trade treaty with Beijing in his last tenure in 2016 just to
minimize Nepal’s dependence on India. In the recent visit to China the
delegation led by Oli signed 14 agreements however the most important
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was the construction of Railway network which
will connect the Gyirong trading port in Xigaze in Tibet with Kathmandu. The
railway line which would pass from strenuous Himalayan region would further
reduce Nepalese reliance on India. It is the second important move of Oli to
reduce Nepal’s dependence on India and become closer to China. Beside MOU’s on
road and rail link, agreements were also inked on energy including hydroelectric
projects, cement factories, fruit production, tourism, technical cooperation,
human resources development and infrastructure projects including
transportation, and water resources projects. An understanding was also
developed so that Nepalese can use highways on Tibet which will enhance people
to people contact. Nepalese Prime Minister also mentioned that an outline is
being prepared for a long-term financial backing to Nepal.
The details of MOU about the
railway line which would pass from a very difficult terrain were not disclosed
as it would contain several clauses which may not be liked by the people of
Nepal. China which is developing infrastructure in neighbouring countries
including Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh keeps the contents of the
agreement secret. The details of much hyped China Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC) in which China has pledged to invest more than $50 billion are still not
available to public although there is lot of resentment in Gilgit, Baltistan
and Balochistan from where CPEC would pass. The analysts mention that under the
agreement contracts of all constructions have to be given to Chinese firms
which charge more money than other international firms. Chinese firms bring
everything from homeland including the workforce. Secondly Chinese firms give
loan at much higher rates. Sri Lanka where Chinese constructed outsized
infrastructure projects could not repay the loan and ultimately had to
surrender Hambantota Port as well as 15000 acres of land adjacent to the port
to China on a 99 years lease.
Same way CPEC will prove a
debt-trap for Pakistan as the country is passing from an economic crisis and
Beijing will not only occupy Gwadar port but will also exploit the mineral
resources and virgin land of Giligit & Baltistan.
It appears that Nepal will be
the next victim of China and former Foreign Minister Prakash Saran Mahat has
correctly pointed out that Nepal will not be in a position to repay the loan as
the cost of construction of Railways in this hilly and inhospitable terrain may
be more than the annual capital expenditure of the country. He further pointed
out that the returns of such gargantuan project will come very late and in the
meantime poor Nepalese will continue suffering. The analysts assert that the
railway line is not in the interest of Nepal but both China and Oli want to
construct the railway line so that the dependence on India can be reduced. The
70-120 KMs railway line which will be a technological marvel will require
extensive and problematical tunnels, bridge and culverts.
Oli exploits anti-India
sentiments which are high since September 2015 when Nepal alleged that India
has created an economic and humanitarian crisis by blocking supply of
petroleum, medicines and other important items. India denied these fabricated
allegations. India baiters also allege that India wishes to control Nepal and
desires to carve out a separate state for people of Indian origin (Madhesis).
Oli and his party may try to
replace India by taking assistance from Beijing but it will be difficult for
China to replace India due to geographical reasons. Beijing is an expansionist
country and its strategy is to construct jumbo infrastructure projects in
financially starved neighbourhood by giving loans at higher rates. After
sometime the neighbouring countries are unable to pay the loan and China
occupies the strategic ports and areas. China signed Free Trade Agreement and
took one island of Maldives and negotiating to take one more island. Beijing
also invested huge amount in Bangladesh and in this way besides creating jobs
for Chinese and good return of their investment China is also encircling India
which is a potential rival.
Oli won 2017 elections on
anti-India rhetoric and he wants to show to anti-India and pro-Chinese masses
that he is lessening Nepal’s dependence on India. Although the Trans Himalayan
railway is not an economically viable project because the trade-volume present
and future through this route will be less but it is a secondary issue, Oli
will get support from the masses. India also promised a 69 KMs oil pipeline
from Motihari (Bihar) to Amlekhaganj in Nepal, construction of railway line
from Raxaul (Bihar) to Kathmandu and Arun Three hydropower plant which would be
important for energy hungry Nepal.
China also offered a
trilateral cooperation in Nepal between India, China and Nepal however India is
reluctant to join the trilateral agreement. China is also eager to get India’s
support for President Xi Jinping’s dream project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
which India refused to accept as it passes from Kashmir which is illegally
occupied by Pakistan. Secondly Indian policy makers feel that India has a
deep-rooted relationship with Nepal hence trilateral relationship will not be
beneficial for India.
The policy planners in Nepal
must consider that signing of Transit and Trade Treaty with China or
constructing of a railway line linking both the countries are good on paper but
practically China’s seaports are more than 3000 KMs away hence it is better for
Nepal to link more with India than China.
Oli is working hard for the
economic progress of Nepal hence Kathmandu will need India as it is the biggest
trading partner of Nepal but Oli will like to reduce the economic dependence on
India and will like to balance between India and China. Beijing will like to
assist Nepal but will avoid confrontation with India and that is the reason
China suggested for trilateral cooperation.
China which gives prime
importance to security is averse to the idea of opening more check posts. In
fact the oldest and most popular border-post Tatopani is closed from last three
years. However the influence of China is increasing and Chinese
tourists have outnumbered Indian tourists in the first quarter of 2018. The
cooperation between Nepalese army and Chinese army is also increasing and last
year both the armies conducted a joint exercise. Although Chinese President Xi
Jinping has not visited Nepal so far but high-level visits between both the
countries have considerably increased.
Chinese lobby is quite strong
in Nepal and leaders of political parties, intellectuals and media support the
implementation of agreements with China and are in favour of reducing
dependence on India. The newspapers and magazines print articles and editorials
favouring BRI and ask government to start projects related to BRI. The Chinese
lobby also project shortcomings in Indian projects especially the delay in
completion of the Indian funded projects.
Beijing always claims that it
does not interfere in the internal affairs of Nepal while there is a large
majority which alleges that India interferes in the internal affairs of Nepal
and its approach is of big brother. According to an estimate about 1.5 million
Nepalese are working in India but it does not create a goodwill as large number
of Nepalese are doing menial jobs and does not have good feeling about country
of their employment. Chinese lobby in Nepal claim that it is humiliating for
Nepal.
China has deep pockets and
surplus foreign exchange. In 2017 Chinese firms promised to invest about $ 8.3
billion while India pledged paltry sum of $317 million only however Modi
government which is pursuing “neighbourhood policy” gave full importance to all
its neighbours including Nepal. Modi in his recent visit insisted more on
cultural and religious ties including the development of “Ramayana Circuit”,
places related to Buddha and Jain religions. It may develop religious tourism
which will increase people to people contact.
Chinese presence will
increase in Nepal and India’s warning that it will be debt-trap is of no use as
Nepalese will consider it as interference in their internal affairs. Several
agreements with China will die their own death as they are not practicable.
China promised to supply petroleum products to Nepal but it could not work and
Nepal is importing petroleum products from India only. The railway line between
Nepal and Tibet may also meet the same fate while railway line connecting
Lumbini to Kathmandu will be complete. Same way Nepal signed in favour of BRI
in May 2017 but there is no major headway in it. Hence India should
watch patiently and Nepalese inclination towards China will wither-away in due
course of time. The prudent Nepalese realise that Chinese terms and conditions
of the contract are unfavourable to Nepal and in long-run it will be
detrimental for the country while India is a democratic country and has no
expansionist designs hence it is easier to deal with it.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a
Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is
also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence
Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can
be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
There
should be a peaceful solution to the stand-off with China. The upcoming meeting
of the NSAs is a good opportunity for both New Delhi and Beijing to resolve
issues. War would be disastrous
China, which has emerged as an economic giant and which has also
strengthened its defence capabilities, is threatening not only its neighbours
but also other countries located in far-flung areas. After the fall of the
Soviet Union, the world had a lone superpower. But now, China is challenging
its authority.
The
present international scenario is in favour of China where space is created
because of bewildered policies of US President Donald
Trump. But no country can be sure that the US will come to help in case
of war with China. Russia has problems with China but it is under economic pressure
from the latter. The European Union is suffering from economic crisis and Japan
has not cultivated military capabilities. In such a scenario, Beijing has
understood that India is the only country which can confront its authority. The
high-handedness of China is evident by statements made by Chinese spokespersons
as well as through articles published in the Government-controlled Chinese
media.
It
must be recalled that China has constantly opposed India’s entry into the Nuclear
Suppliers Group. It has also subverted India’s move to impose sanctions on
Pakistani terrorist Masood Azhar at the UN Security Council. The fact is also
that China is abetting Pakistan to create troubles in Jammu & Kashmir.
Recently, J&K Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti remarked that China is meddling
in Kashmir’s internal matters.
Meanwhile, China felt slighted when India did not participate in
the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — a dream project of Chinese President Xi
Jinping. Once India stayed away from the BRI, other countries too showed
apprehensions towards the project and raised doubts about Chinese intentions
and the efficacy of the project.
Nonetheless, the Chinese wanted to subdue India publically. Hence,
it started creating troubles at Dolam which is the tri-junction region of
India, Bhutan and China. Beijing is constructing road in the Dolam area which
is a disputed territory between Bhutan and China. The proposed road, when
constructed, would allow the passage of tanks, artillery guns and heavy
equipments so that it can threaten the chicken’s neck area and the main road
which connects India with its Northeastern States.
Chinese
forces entered the disputed region, destroyed old bunkers and warned of dire
consequences to Indian troops. Not only this, troops of the People’s Liberation
Army (PLA) as well as Government-controlled media arrogantly reminded India of
its defeat in the 1962 war. But when Minister for Defence, Arun Jaitley,
responded that India of 2017 is different from the India of 1962, the Chinese
Government mouthpiece, Global
Times, mentioned that India should be taught a lesson.
Besides humiliating India, Chinese forces also wanted to gain
strategic depth in the region. In 2013, the PLA entered in Daulat Beg Oldi area
and compelled Indian forces to demolish bunkers in Chumar region. The PLA has
forced the Army to repeat the 2013 episode, but the Armed Forces, under the
leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi refused to submit to the dictates of
the PLA. If Chinese forces construct the road, the safety and security of the
Northeastern region would be in jeopardy.
Chinese forces entered the Bhutanese area knowing well that Bhutan
is in no shape to face China. And when India comes to its rescue, it would
bully both countries. If India does not resist, China will extend its territory
and construct roads and bridges which would threaten India’s security.
Besides, China also alleged that the Malabar Exercise among India,
the US and Japan, was aimed against it. China is opposed to the role of the US
in the Indian Ocean region. The exercise occurred at a time when stand-off is
on in Dolam and Beijing is building ports in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan
and Djibouti.
The Middle Kingdom also understands that the present Government is
transforming India rapidly; enhancing its defence capabilities through
import and through the Make In India programme. Hence, the Chinese
calculated that it is an opportune moment to resolve outstanding issues. At
present, the Chinese economy is about five times bigger than Indian economy but
India is reducing the gap. This is the reason why China has been threatening
India.
China is using Kashmir against India. The recent statement of
Chinese authorities that they were ready to mediate between India and Pakistan
to resolve the Kashmir issue was a sinister move. First, it was already decided
that it is a bilateral issue. There’s no question of mediation. Second, China
is also an interested party as it has parts of territory which it claims as its
own.
China has also internal problems. Islamic terrorism is increasing
in Xinjiang — the autonomous region which is the biggest Province and it shares
borders with several countries, including Pakistan, which is the epicenter of
terrorism. China’s population growth has declined and its workforce is aging
while India’s population growth is robust. It’s workforce is young. China’s
internal debt has increased to dangerous levels as Moody’s Investors Service
downgraded its rating.
The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be
held in October and far-reaching changes are expected at top echelon of the
party. President Xi has to show himself as a powerful leader. Hence, he has
taken an unduly strong posture against India.
China, which is encircling India by inculcating close relations
with Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Pakistan, also gave a stern
message to Bhutan by sending troops in Dolam that animosity with China would be
dangerous for the Himalayan kingdom. China also wants to establish diplomatic
relations with Bhutan. It desires to set up its embassy over there so that the
influence of India can be abridged and China can enhance its authority. To keep
its aggressive posture visible, China also conducted live-fire exercises in
Tibet. Besides showing its military preparedness, China is also working in
diplomatic arena. The Chinese have briefed the diplomatic missions in Beijing
about Dolam stand-off and put the blame on India.
Indian policy-makers must realise that at present, China is more
powerful. Hence, at the present juncture, war should be avoided and
Indian leaders as well as media should stay away from provocative statements.
India should also not be seen in the camp of the US as it will enhance Chinese
animosity. India has a good case on India-China border issues and should try to
plead its case forcefully in the right forum. Chinese authorities use history
and facts selectively. Hence, Indian policy-makers must prepare a fool-proof
case.
India must state that war will be harmful for both countries and
diplomatically it should also be conveyed that several countries, especially,
in the neighbourhood area, are not comfortable with the rise of China. In case
of hostilities, these countries would assist India, overtly as well as
covertly.
National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, who would be visiting
Beijing to participate in the meeting of NSAs of Brazil, Russia, India, China
and South Africa (Brics) to be held on July 27 and 28. Doval, during his visit,
must try to resolve the present stand-off at Dolam amicably. Chinese strategy
of humiliating India boomeranged as Indian forces are not leaving the
ground. As per reports, India has sent reinforcements and Indian Chief of
the Army Staff, Bipin Rawat, also visited Sikkim and Kalimpong and met
commanders of 17 and 27 Mountain Divisions and assessed the situation on the
ground.
Now, the Chinese administration would also like to retrieve its
forces from the area gracefully and Indian forces should cooperate with them so
that the stand-off ends harmoniously. War will be disastrous for both countries
and it must be avoided.
(The writer is member, United
Services Institute of India, and associated with the Institute for Defence
Studies and Analyses)DITORIAL
BOARDRE FATYCONTACT US
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Home » Spotlight » Doklam Standoff : A Diplomatic &
Reasonable Indian stand
Doklam
Standoff : A Diplomatic & Reasonable Indian Stand
By
JK Verma
New
Delhi. 24 August 2017. A town which very few outside the Army
had heard of is now the talk of the nation. Doklam is now the cynosure of all
eyes in India, this region and probably observers of world over too. The Indian
and Chinese troops have been in a face-off since June 6 when Chinese troops started
making a road at tri-junction of Bhutan, Tibet and India in Bhutanese
territory.
When the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) ignored the protests made
by Bhutan, Indian forces had to stop Chinese troops on the request of our close
neighbour Bhutan. Chinese started construction of road in the disputed
territory with the ulterior motive of humiliating India as well as achieving
the strategic benefits.
The government controlled Chinese media constantly threatened
India of dire consequences and Chinese spokespersons obdurately stated that
Indian troops must vacate the area unconditionally. The Chinese media on behest
of government not only reminded India of 1962 debacle but also shown the
pictures of Chinese defence exercises and projected as PLA has amassed large
congregation of troops in the disputed area. China Daily in its editorial even
stated that countdown of the conflict between both the forces has commenced.
The intelligence sources mention that most of the pictures shown by the Chinese
media are either concocted or old pictures or of the different areas. The
analysts feel that Chinese media is trying to frighten Indian policy makers,
press and the public through these rhetoric that China is ready for a war hence
India must withdraw its troops.
China ignored the levelheaded offer of Indian leaders including
Foreign Minister that the troops of both the countries should vacate the
disputed area and then the matter can be resolved amicably. China defiantly
insisted that Indian troops must vacate the area while Chinese troops will not
leave the disputed territory.
The eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation is continuing from more than
two months and India utilized this time in strengthening its position on the
ground by sending more troops and weaponry. The troops are also acclimatized in
the area. The Eastern Command which defends the area has three corps at its
disposal. Besides army, Indian Air Force stations are more or less in the plain
areas and IAF is capable of cutting the supply lines of Chinese troops which can
be disastrous for them.
Home Minister Rajnath Singh clarified in a ceremony organised by Indo Tibetan
Border Police Force (ITBP) on August 21 at New Delhi that India has no
expansionist plans and wants to resolve the present standoff with China at
Doklam peacefully and through diplomatic channels. He further mentioned that
India wants to have cordial relations with all its neighbours but gave a stern
warning that Indian forces are capable to safeguard its borders.
The military analysts claim that PLA needs minimum of 2 lakh
troops in the area if they really want to push back Indian army forcibly.
Chinese cannot depute such a huge number, with arms and ammunition, in that
isolated area clandestinely. Satellites and Indian intelligence agencies would
know about the movement and Chinese have not started any such large scale
movement so far. Nonetheless Indian security forces including intelligence
agencies have to be extra vigilant as China attacked India in October 1962 and
conflicts at Nathu-la and Cho-la also occurred in the months of September and
October 1967 respectively. Needless to remind antagonistic PLA that India
emerged victorious in 1967 scuffles.
The Chief of Army Staff General Bipin Rawat paid a three days
visit to the forward areas of Ladakh and Kashmir located on India China
borders. In the tour which commenced from August 20 General Rawat examined the
preparedness of the armed forces and met the local commanders who briefed him
about the ground situation. Army Chief’s visit at this juncture is important as
he will understand the true picture of the area and can brief the political
hierarchy. It will also boost the morale of Indian forces.
Chinese forces may have more military capabilities than Indian
troops but it will be difficult for PLA to fight with the battle hardened
Indian forces. Chinese forces have not fought any war after 1962 while Indian
forces fought wars in 1965, 1971 and in Kargil in 1999.The neighbouring
countries which are afraid of China because of its economic might and projected
military prowess will also understand that Chinese forces are not as powerful
as China is publicising.
Chinese army is much bigger than Indian army but it has more
commitments too. China shares borders with 14 countries and out of them it has
hostile relations with eight countries consequently it cannot pull army from
several places. At present China is acting as a regional bully therefore quite
a few of its neighbours cherish ill-will against it, which will be positive for
India.
Several projects of Border Road Organisation (BRO) of constructing
strategic and all-weather roads and bridges on India- China border were lagging
behind due to paucity of funds or delay in sanction of the amount. According to
Comptroller & Auditor General (CAG) there are inordinate delays in
construction of more than 60 roads on India-China Borders. Defence Ministry has
taken a landmark decision and enhanced the powers of Director General of BRO up
to Rs. 100 Crores for procurement of indigenous or imported construction material.
It will increase the pace of building roads in the strategic areas.
China also wants to inculcate friendly relations with Bhutan on
one hand and on the other hand it wants to mitigate Indian influence there.
China also wants to establish diplomatic relations with Bhutan and open its
embassy there. Indian diplomatic missions as well as intelligence agencies must
keep watch on Chinese activities in Bhutan which will be enhanced soon.
According to reports emanating from Hong Kong, Chinese President
Xi Jingping already survived six assassination attempts at different places
which indicate the strength of his opposition groups in the country. Sources
also mention that top Chinese Communist Party officials were behind these
assassination bids. Beside these assassination efforts there were coup attempts
also including one in March 2012. Analysts mention that a terse battle is going
on between Xi Jinping the present strongman and former top leader Jiang Zemin.
The 19th National Congress of Communist Party of China would be held in last of
2017 and there not only new leadership would be elected but majority of
Politburo Standing Committee members would also be elected. President Xi
Jinping has to prove his strength in National Congress and it is the reason that
China has taken such an unyielding stand in Doklam.
The flag meetings held between Indian and Chinese forces remained
fruitless, in the meantime on August 15 Chinese forces entered near Pangong
lake in Ladakh area equipped with iron rods and stones. The security forces of
both countries scuffled however Chinese troops were withdrawn.
Japan in a statement, backed India’s stand and mentioned that present status
quo should be maintained and there should not be any change on the ground by
force. United States Department also issued a statement on August 16 and stated
that the dispute between India and China may be resolved peacefully.
The chances that China will resort to full scale war with India
and PLA may attack Indian forces at multiple places are remote as both the
countries would suffer heavy losses. China which is dreaming to become super
power in near future would also suffer and its economy will be shattered.
Chinese industries which are already suffering from a slowdown will get another
jolt in case of large scale war with India which is an emerging power. Indian
economy which is growing fast will be devastated but India has no option but to
fight back the invading PLA if Doklam face-off is not resolved peacefully. In
case of war newly raised mountain strike corps of India would occupy some
Chinese territory where PLA is weak, which may be helpful in negotiations after
the war ends.
China will not resort to a full scale war because in that case India will join
US camp which will certainly be against Chinese interests. Not only this India
being a regional power may also like to constitute a group of countries which
are against China but do not oppose it openly due to the fear of Chinese
reprisal.
India cannot withdraw troops from Doklam as it will be catastrophic
and China will continue bulldozing India as it is doing to other small
neighbours. China understands the language of strength hence India has to be
firm, polite and diplomatic. The best plausible solution is that forces of both
the countries withdraw from the disputed territory and then experts try to
negotiate long-standing peaceful solution.
The government controlled Chinese press as well as Chinese
spokespersons should also not issue provocative statements as these articles
and statements create ill-will and erode the chances of peaceful negotiations.
At present China has put a rigid condition that negotiations can
start only if Indian troops withdraw from the area which India cannot accept
hence both countries should involve third party so that negotiations can start.
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit is scheduled to be
held in China from September 3rd,hence Russia can arbitrate so that the present
standoff continuing from more than two months end amicably.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior
intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can
be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
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Home » Spotlight » Sino-Indian standoff : A lose – lose
situation
New
Delhi. 04 July 2017. Eyeball to eyeball with the enemy at
the not-so-sensitive
Sino-Indian border with Sikkim has resulted into a standoff which has attracted
eyeballs of the world. Surprisingly all has been always quiet on this front.
In the first week of June Chinese and Indian soldiers came in
front of each other and jostled in Doklam area in Sikkim, which is also a
tri-junction of India, China and Bhutan. First Chinese told Indian troops to
dismantle the old bunkers but when Indian forces refused to adhere to their
command they forcibly removed both the bunkers by using the heavy equipment
including bulldozers. Chinese have already strengthened their position by
building roads, bridges and culverts in the areas controlled by them and now
when Indian authorities want to repair old bunkers, build new bunkers and
roads, Chinese army is obstructing the construction activities with malafide
intention to keep Indian side weak and unprepared.
To retrace a little history of this front, in 1975, the Sikkim
monarchy held a referendum, in which the Sikkemese voted overwhelmingly in
favour of joining India. At the time China protested and rejected it as
illegal. The Sino-Indian Memorandum of 2003 was hailed as a de facto Chinese
acceptance of the annexation. China published a map showing Sikkim as a part of
India and the Foreign Ministry deleted it from the list of China’s “border
countries and regions”. However, the Sikkim-China border’s northernmost point,
“The Finger”, continues to be the subject of dispute and military activity.
Peoples
Liberation Army (PLA) has chosen the time of standoff before the beginning of
Kailash Mansarovar Yatra through Nathu La Pass, thinking that it will be a jolt
to ruling Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP)when
Hindu pilgrims would be sent back from the area without performing the
pilgrimage. Chinese also thought that BJP would succumb to pressure and would
remove the bunkers but Indian side preferred not to use Nathu La Pass area for
Kailash Mansarovar Yatra and refused to dismantle the bunkers and vacate the
area.This second pilgrimage route was opened three years back after the meeting
between Modi and President Xi Jinping. PLA proclaimed the stoppage of pilgrimage
on June 20, 2017.
China had also posted a map of the area on the website of Chinese
Foreign Ministry on June 30th under which, the current disputed areas were
shown as the part of China and also asserted that Indian troops intruded the
Chinese areas. Chinese claimed the areas up to Mount Gipmochi while India and
Bhutan claims areas up till Batang La (Pass). The Bhutanese Government
constantly lodge formal protests to Chinese government about the construction
of roads in the region nonetheless Chinese ignored the protests.
General V. Namgyel, Bhutan Ambassador in New Delhi issued statement that
Chinese are constructing road in utter violation of 1988 agreement under which
both Bhutan and China agreed to maintain status quo in the region.
Although Chinese were the intruders but they lodged complaints in
South Block, New Delhi as well as in Indian Embassy in Beijing. In the protest
notes they alleged that Indian troops entered in their areas in Doklam.
The
dynamic Indian
Army Chief Bipin Rawat visited Sikkim and Kalimpong and met
army commanders and discussed the operational plans and future strategy. He
also visited Headquarters of 17 Mountain Division in Gangtok and 27 Mountain
Division in Kalimpong. Both countries have enhanced the strength of armed
forces in the region and the armies are facing each other. Indian army has
refused to allow PLA to construct the road in this strategically significant
area.
China which is encircling India by inculcating close relations
with Indian neighbours including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Myanmar and of
course Pakistan which readily converted itself as Chinese protege. There are
also reports that China would link Kathmandu through rail link in few years.
Hence now China wants to intimidate Bhutan by showing its military strength
although Batang La is apparently a natural tri-junction because of flow of
water in the area. China also wants to establish diplomatic ties with Bhutan, initiate
direct trade link so that it can influence the Himalayan Kingdom. China claims
that Bhutan is an independent country hence it will deal it directly and Indian
interference is not required.
In fact Chinese has diverse goals in construction of this strategic
road. This road would strengthen their position and they would develop whole
region and will also link the region through Railway lines. The present road
will be capable of carrying tanks, heavy military vehicles including artillery
guns, which indicates the ulterior motive of PLA.
Here it will not be out of point to mention that China claims
whole of Arunachal Pradesh and the development of Doklam region would endanger
Indian security. In future the PLA can use this road to browbeat India as Siliguri
road which connects Northeast from other parts of India is only 50 KMs away.
Indian security forces have to be cautious to defend chicken neck from the
onslaught of China. China slowly but steadily encroaching on Bhutan territory.
Chinese Government controlled Global Times threatened that China
is much stronger militarily as well as economically and if India does not amend
its ways China may have to teach a lesson. It also reminded India about its
defeat in 1962.
Indian Defence Minister Arun Jaitely in a hard hitting statement
responded that Chinese troops were responsible for the present standoff and
that India of 2017 is different from India of 1962.
Indian Ministry of External Affairs also issued a statement,
contradicting the Chinese claim, mentioned that India is “deeply concerned” as
China is trying to build a road in tri-junction in disputed Doklam area near
Sikkim.
The analysts claim that PLA has started construction of road at
Doklam to force India to join China’s ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR)
programme. The OBOR got a big jolt as India has not joined it while several
other countries have also showed their apprehension about this gigantic
project. Nonetheless Chinese must understand that the standoff in Doklam is
counter-productive and the Indian public has become more hostile towards China.
Both the bunkers destroyed by China were old bunkers and
constructed in 2012 hence destroying them in 2017 is a clear indication that
China wanted to intimidate India.
As Beijing wanted to force India to join OBOR, China refused twice
Indian request of flag meetings but remained insistent that Indian security
forces must vacate the area first.
China feels that India is the only country in the region which may
challenge its supremacy hence it wants to humiliate India. In past China
objected about the visit of Dalai Lama in Arunachal Pradesh as well as India’s
efforts of improvement of the infrastructure in the areas abutting China. China
which sells all types of arms and ammunition to Pakistan including missiles
became apprehensive when India planned the export of advanced cruise missile
system to Vietnam as well as to several other countries. Export of Indian
supersonic BrahMos missile would be a game changer and it may prove a milestone
against the hegemonic designs of China. The growing cordial relationship
between India and United States is also disliked by China as both US and China
have different approach about South China Sea. China has also objected US arms
sales of USD 1.42 billion to Taiwan.
The analysts admit that at present China is much more powerful
than India both economically as well as militarily and it will not be wise for
India to go for an all out war. Nevertheless analysts also mention that on one
hand India should strengthen its defence forces and on the other hand must
develop infrastructure of borders abutting China. The other important point is
that security forces must be vigilant so that China does not capture the
strategic points as in case of hostilities China will get an upper hand. China
which has developed good infrastructure at the borders is still investing
heavily on its improvement. China is also working on several infrastructure
projects in Tibet including five airports, more rail links and additional
strategically important roads.
Well wishers of both the sides feel Prime Minister Modi and
Chinese President Xi Jinping while attending Group of Twenty ( G-20) Summit in
Hamburg in Germany on July 7 & 8 may meet to resolve this unwarranted
crisis as both of them have inculcated a good chemistry. The intelligence
sources also mention that China simply want to intimidate India but would not
go for a war as it will also destroy its economy and rising clout in the world
arena.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior
intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can
be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Escalating Islamic terrorism in Xinjiang: Warning bells for
Beijing
Posted:Feb 4, 2017
By Jai Kumar
Verma
China, which vetoed India’s efforts to
blacklist Masood Azhar in the counter-terror committee of the United Nations,
is itself suffering from Islamic terrorism in Xinjiang autonomous region. Azhar
is the founder of UN-designated terrorist outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M) and
also owes allegiance to other terrorist outfits including Harkat-ul-Ansar and
Harkat-ul-Mujahideen but China, with the ulterior motive of helping its
all-weather friend Pakistan, blocked India’s efforts in the UN.
Pakistan, which is the epicenter of
terrorism, created several terrorist outfits as it launched a low intensity war
against India and wanted to achieve ‘strategic depth' in Afghanistan. The
architects of these terrorist organisations were officers of the creepy Inter
Services Intelligence (ISI) and they aroused the sentiments of leaders and
workers of terrorist outfits by interpreting Islam erroneously with mala fide
intentions. Nonetheless, with the passage of time, the leaders of a few
terrorist outfits discontinued obeying ISI and launched terrorist activities
inside Pakistan as well as in friendly countries like China.
Xinjiang autonomous region is the largest
province of China and shares borders with several countries, including
Pakistan, from where Uighur Muslim radicals import the extremist form of Islam.
In the top echelon, both China and Pakistan talk about their “irreplaceable”
friendship but now leaders of Xinjiang province are worried about the Islamic
terrorism perpetrated by Pakistani Taliban.
The majority population of Xinjiang is
of Turkic-speaking Muslim Uighurs and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement
(ETIM) which is the strongest organisation of Uighurs is fighting for the
establishment of an independent East Turkestan. Besides ETIM, other separatist
outfits include East Turkistan Liberation Organisation, United Revolutionary
Front of East Turkestan, Turkistan Islamic Party and Uighur Liberation
Organisation.
These secessionist organisations get
assistance from Taliban of Pakistan and Afghanistan, Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan, Al-Qaeda and Islamic State. Although the grievances of Uighurs are
age-old and genuine but now separatists are getting financial assistance from
Muslim countries while Pakistan is rendering training, weapons, shelter and
lessons of Jihad.
Uighurs are more close to Central Asian
countries than China but the Chinese government, under a long-term strategy,
settled a large number of Han Chinese in the region which changed the
demography of the province. According to the 2000 census, the number of Han
Chinese rose to 40 per cent of population and besides that there were a large
number of unregistered Han Chinese.
In this mineral-rich region, disparity
among the local Uighurs and newly-settled Han Chinese is increasing. Han
Chinese are working in important developmental projects at senior positions
while local Uighurs are doing inferior jobs which generated resentment. Han
Chinese had the support of the government hence local Muslims were sidelined
and discriminated in their own homeland.
The government has put stern restrictions on
religious activities of Muslims, Madrassas were forcibly closed and very few
mosques are allowed to function. Fasting is prohibited during Ramadan.
Amnesty International in 2013 reported that even peaceful cultural
activities were also restricted.
Muslims complain that there is a
systematic attack on their religion and culture with the ulterior motive to
destroy Islam hence they have to resort to terrorism and uprising to save not
only their religion and culture but also their existence from annihilation.
The national and local media,
newspapers, radio and TV channels broadcast against Islamic terrorism and
narrate news inimical to Uighurs. The bloggers, netizens and website providers
were severely penalised.
Chinese security forces ruthlessly
crush any type of protest and demonstrations but rebellion is continuing. In
2009, there were extensive riots in which more than 200 persons were killed and
thousands were injured. Security forces penalised Uighurs mercilessly which
generated more resentment. The attempt of Uighur separatists to hijack a plane
of the Tianjin Airlines in June 2012 was foiled and two hijackers were
ruthlessly killed.
The separatists attack security forces
including police stations. In April and June 2013, Uighurs attacked security
forces and government buildings in Shanshan county in which at least 27 people
were killed. In May 2014, in bomb blasts in Urumqi, at least 43 persons were
killed and 100 injured. There was large-scale rioting in April at Urumqi
Railway station, in July in Yarkant county and in September at Luntai county --
in these rebellions, more than 250 persons were killed and several thousands
were injured.
On January 8, 2016, three terrorists
were shot dead who were involved in a terrorist attack in April 2015 in Moyu
county. In December 2016, four separatists rammed an explosives-laden car in a
government building killing several persons. There were several other riots,
demonstrations, mass protests and terrorist activities which were not reported.
The Uighur separatists are also
involved in extremist activities outside Xinjiang region. Chinese security
forces tried to stifle the mass movement of Uighurs and initiated a campaign in
which security forces conducted military drills, surprise checks, brutal
torture during interrogation, mass arrests, and large scale convictions including
death sentences, to the leaders and workers of separatists.
On January 9, 2017, the Chairman of
Xinjiang region put stringent restrictions in border areas. He emphatically
mentioned that the terrorists after getting training in other countries enter
illegally and carry out terrorist activities in the province.
The Chinese leaders have not mentioned
the name of Pakistan but they clearly indicated that the terrorists are trained
in Pakistan and Afghanistan and they infiltrate from these countries. China, by
putting stringent restrictions on the China-Pakistan border, gave a stern
message to Pakistan that it must stop infiltration and training of
terrorists.
The Chinese authorities allege that ETIM
leaders based in exile are responsible for terrorist activities in the restive
province of Xinjiang but analysts aver that it is a home-grown movement and
local Muslims are feeling alienated because of large-scale settlement of Han
Chinese, economic deprivation and religious strangulation.
The Uighur separatist outfits also
declare that the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is not in the interest
of residents of Xinjiang and they would obstruct its construction.
The Uighur secessionists claim that in
case of a plebiscite in Xinjiang region under the supervision of the United
Nations an overwhelming majority would vote for an independent country.
At present, there is neither any
cohesion nor combined ideology between various secessionist outfits which are
mainly divided in Pan-Turkism, Uighur nationalism and Islam. All these three
segments should work together and formulate a joint strategy to achieve their
goal.
China must realise that Pakistani
Taliban would continue training and infiltrating Islamic terrorists in China
hence it must stop assisting Pakistan and help India and the world in curbing
the menace of terrorism by controlling Pakistan as without assistance from
China, Pakistan cannot survive.
China should stop atrocities on Uighurs
and should give them full religious and cultural freedom and should not make
efforts to change the demography of the region. Xinjiang region is different
from Mainland China hence more autonomy should be given which is essential to
restore peace in the region.
The Chinese government must understand
that mass movements cannot be suppressed by force. Excessive force would
generate more resentment and in future it may be joined by other Muslim
extremists who have no link with Uighur separatists or a few Chinese
secessionist outfits will also start their own movement against the present
communist regime.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic
analyst. Comments and suggestions on this article can be sent to editor@spsindia.in)
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT
CHANGE THEM
Should India Be Vary Of
Blossoming Friendships In Its Neighbourhood?
Implications
of meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping
By JK Verma
New Delhi. 10 July 2016. Blossoming friendships between not-so-friendly
neighbors and traditionally friendly countries should make India sit up . More
so if this relationship has geopolitical implications.
The strategic meeting between
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in
June was significant in the present world scenario, although Putin accentuated
that the meeting was more to restore the economic ties, enhance Chinese
investment, sale of energy and augment supply of military hardware which is
reduced considerably.
Russia superpower of yesteryears and China global force of present
era want to tone down the increasing dominance of United States (US). European
Union and US put stringent sanctions against Russia in 2014 after it annexed
Ukrainian territory of Crimea. It compelled Russia to seek more friends and
China was the obvious choice, consequently Russia signed a USD 400 billion
contract with China pertaining to natural gas supply. At present one natural
gas pipeline is under construction and negotiations for the second pipeline is
in final stages. It was a blunt message from Moscow to West that there is no
dearth of friends.
Russia which is dependent on energy export does not want to
lose China, as energy demand is reduced in Europe and US may emerge as a net
exporter of energy. Energy starved China has the capacity to utilize the
enormous energy export of Russia and has also the financial capability to pay.
Russia has increased its oil export to China and superseded Saudi Arabia.
The bilateral trade between
Russia and China which was USD 100 billion in 2014 was reduced to USD 60
billion last year. China which is the biggest trading partner of Russia imports
raw material and exports finished goods. China Russia friendship is
significant and there is confluence on several international issues including
issues in Security Council, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation etc.It was
the fourth visit of Putin to China after Xi Jinping took over as president in
2013. Xi also mentioned that both countries should remain “friends forever” as
they are celebrating 15th anniversary
of the China-Russia treaty of friendship.
Japan is also apprehensive about the development of close
ties between Moscow and Beijing although Japan is in US camp but it has thick
business relations with Moscow. The differences between China and Russia are
grave and the chances of agreement are remote but Japan is suspicious about their
growing proximity.
The analysts mention that
relations between the former communist nations have declined because both are
suspicious of each other. Russia has more nuclear warheads but China’s
conventional forces are much superior. Consequently both the countries
regularly conduct exercises on their borders fearing attack from the other.
Moscow is also worried about the increasing influence of Beijing
on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) especially on
Kazakhstan. China is reluctant to invest more in Russia as its investments
are already at the higher side. Secondly at present Russia needs China more
than later needs the former. Nonetheless China is aware that if Russia tilts
towards West it will be disastrous as the West can encircle China.
In view of deep suspicion between China and Russia the role
of US becomes crucial because if US tilts towards Russia the later may like to
abandon China to embrace US. Although chances of US China alliance are remote
but if it does happen Russia will have to choose different friends.
On the other hand if China and
Russia forges an alliance than either India will have to become closer to US or
it has to collaborate with any one of them. Not only this if Russia and China
becomes close then India will face resistance in all international fora especially
BRICS, SCO and RIC.
India is not worried about development of China- Russia trade as
it is already more than India- Russia trade. India is also not concerned about
supply of Russian 1650 Amur-class of submarines and S-400 SAM which is the most
lethal long-range air defense missile system as these weapons are for East and
South China Sea. India is concerned if these weapons are given clandestinely to
Pakistan which will be used against India. China is making sincere efforts
to acquire latest weapons technology from Russia, which may be perilous for
India.
India also has to keep an eye about developing Russian
relations with its paramount enemy Pakistan. Sometimes back Russia signed a
military deal with Pakistan. It may be under influence of China or in view of
India’s developing closeness to US and Israel for the purchase of weapons.
Russia is developing relationship with Pakistani military which is genetically
anti-India.
Russia assured India that it will not supply cutting edge
technology to Pakistan. Russia will not abandon India as it is Moscow’s biggest
purchaser of arms and may emerge as leading consumer of Russian energy. Both
the counties need each other to balance China and US.
India must maintain close relationship with Russia as it is
important to counterbalance China. On one hand India should try to acquire
latest technology from Russia and on the other hand it must convince that China
is not reliable hence latest technology should not be transferred to China as
it will be deleterious to both.
India should try to inculcate
tripartite trade between India, Russia and China which will belie distrust and
develop dependency nevertheless close relation with US will also be
important. Afghanistan is another area which needs attention of all. The influence
of Islamic terrorists is increasing. The country is the biggest producer and
supplier of illegal drugs in the world. Pakistan under the theory of strategic
depth wants to control Afghanistan after evicting India. Therefore Pakistan,
China and Russia already met number of times to solve problems of Afghanistan
which may be good but India has to be careful as it may like to have access in
the energy and market of Central Asia through Afghanistan. Pakistan alleges
that India assists secessionist movement of Balochistan from Afghanistan and
wants to encircle Pakistan.
China should not be worried on growing India US relationship
because since independence India pursued the policy of non-alignment and still
it is not supporting US against China. Besides this China’s foreign policy is
more towards East than towards South. Recently India refused US for joint
patrols in the Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific. India follows independent
foreign policy and is keeping equidistance between China and US. India US relations
are basically bilateral and are not against any country.
In this shrinking world there can be a tripartite dialogue
comprising India, US and China on common issues. The trilateral discourse would
also convince China that India and US are not hatching any conspiracy.
India on its part should have
friendly relations with US, Russia as well as China. In international relations
there are no permanent friends and permanent foes there are only permanent
interests. Hence India must balance its foreign policy and should not join any
block. China is next door neighbour and more powerful than India. It developed
reliable infrastructure on the Indo-China borders while India lacks the
infrastructure therefore India should first strengthen itself and then border issues
should be sorted out.
Indo-US relations should be on
firm foundations and not be China centric as these types of relations are not
viable. India should not become frontline state against China although US has
emerged as a prime seller of weapons to India but it is also the biggest donor
of aid to Pakistan. US wants to sale six nuclear reactors of about USD 21
billion which would energize US nuclear industry. US does not want to support
India against China or Pakistan but wants to use India against China hence
India should be extra cautious in the complicated international affairs. And
India should definitely be vary of warm hand shakes between Putin and Nawaz
Sharif, Putin and Xi, Xi and Nawaz and should understand that if these
friendships blossom they could be difficult for India.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired intelligence
officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted
at editor.adu@gmail.com)
·Trust & Conviction major CBMs between the two Asian powers
·Does the world fear this growing relationship?
·
·By JK Verma
· New Delhi.02 June 2016. From
conflict to cooperation, the concept of Chindia seems to be the new mantra in
the Sino-Indian relationship today. When leaders of India & China meet they
represent more than one third world population, two fastest growing economies,
having biggest militaries and leading consumers of energy, consequently their
relations cordial or hostile effect not only the region but the whole world.
·
Both the countries have several outstanding issues including unresolved border
disagreements, China’s military assistance to Pakistan including building of
USD 46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which connects Gwadar
port to Xinjiang province of China. The corridor passes from Indian territory
of Jammu & Kashmir which is illegally occupied by Pakistan and India
already lodged a strong protest on it. China also protests the presence of
Dalai Lama in India as he keeps Tibet issue alive not only in India but in
international arena too.
Several high level visits were exchanged between India and China in the recent
past. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited India in 2014 while Modi visited
China in 2015 and now Indian President Pranab Mukherjee recently paid a four
day visit from May 24 to 27. Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari also visited
China in 2014. Besides this Modi would again be visiting Hangzhou, Zhejiang on
September 4 &5 to participate in G-20 summit and Xi Jinping would visit Goa
from October 15-16 to take part in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
(BRICS) summit.
China’s move of jeopardizing Indian initiative of inclusion of Masood Azhar,
Chief of Jaish-e-Mohammad, an ISI sponsored terrorist outfit based in Pakistan,
in the blacklist of United Nations has also soured Sino-India relations.
·
The analysts mention that although in past India advocated strongly for the
permanent seat for China in United Nations Security Council but now China does
not support India’s candidature for permanent seat in Security Council and it
also obstructs India’s efforts to join Nuclear Suppliers Group.
·
There is difference between the vision of India and China on South China Sea
and India does not endorse Xi’s vision of Asia where China wants to play
leading role.
·
Both the countries have matured leadership and economically deprived
population; hence there is acute need of economic growth. The trade which was
USD 2 billion in 2000-2001 has enhanced to USD 71 billion last year. There is
overall growth of 23 times in trade in last 14 years which is a big achievement.
Nonetheless it is less than the fixed target and can grow manifold.
·
Modi who visited China several times as Chief Minister of Gujarat has rightly
adopted a blended policy, now India is competing China, inculcating friendship
with countries hostile to China, strengthening ties with neighbours,
modernizing the armed forces, improving infrastructure in border areas but also
keeping China in good disposition and high level visits demonstrate it.
·
The present trade is heavily in favour of China hence sincere efforts should be
made not only for getting China’s investment but India’s exports to China
should also be amplified.
India should try to emphasize old cultural ties especially Buddhism between two
Asian giants. India should also develop infrastructure in Buddhist religious
places so that more Chinese can visit, as in China the impact of communism is
dwindling and people are searching solace in spirituality. Not only this,
emphasis on Buddhism would belie the myth that China inherited a superior civilization.
·
Both the countries should be cautious as Western world is averse to India China
friendship. If both countries inculcate true friendship they would emerge as a
mighty force and the developed countries would never like it.
Chinese media before the visit of Indian president rightly pointed
out that Western media is maliciously trying to create differences between
India and China on “Chabahar port” which will provide India transit routes to
Afghanistan and Central Asian countries through Iran. Chabahar seaport is
approximately 100 KMs away from Gwadar port and was developed by China. The
mischievous Western media projected it as enmity between Elephant and Dragon
which is unfortunate.
There is need to develop more people-to-people contact in all fields
especially in economic field. Connectivity between India and China should
increase and there must be more flights especially between Mumbai and Shanghai
the economic capitals of their countries.
Visa regime should be simple and unproblematic so the people to
people contact develops and the security agencies should not put unnecessary
restrictions under the name of security.
Both countries lack trust with each other. In India there is a
feeling that China instigates Pakistan to carry out terrorist activities so
that India has to spend much time, energy and resources in internal security
which hampers the overall economic progress of the country. Although at present
the border dispute is not in the forefront but China has constructed roads,
railway lines, aerodromes etc in the border areas which can be used at hour of
need.
China has encircled India and developed close ties with Pakistan,
Nepal, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. Bangladesh is also no exception. Although China
has not actively participated during India Pakistan wars so far but in view of
close relationship between China and Pakistan, the policy planners in India
have to plan for the eventuality.
However India should acknowledge that China is an economic as well as military
power with lot of surplus funds with better technology in several fields hence
India should try to augment cooperation, trim down differences, inculcate
healthy competition and reduce the chances of clash.
Both sides should try to resolve the thorny border issue amicably through
negotiations, as it is a sensitive issue hence both the countries should deal
it slowly. The 19th round of Special Representatives’ meeting held in Beijing
in April 2016 was important as it was agreed in the meeting that border
disputes are controlled and border areas remained peaceful. India should convey
a message that China is its important neighbour and both the countries must
inculcate a jointly advantageous relationship and India must welcome Chinese
investment in all sectors.
India should also convince China that it has no intention to encircle it and
India will not play US cards against China. India should be extra cautious
because US and Japan may like to put India on the forefront against China but
both these countries have multi-layered and much closer relationship with China
than their associations with India.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired R&AW
officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted
at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT
CHANGE THEM
In 2016
Are India & China A Little More Friendly?
By JK Verma
New
Delhi.01 May 2016. Arguably India’s most important
neighbour is China and every little change in the long turbulent
relationship between the two Asian giants, makes not only the region but also
the world look up and take stock.
Recent times have been quite significant in India China relations
as high level meetings of leaders of both the countries were held, China
supported Masood Azhar a known Pakistani terrorist in United Nations and India
issued and later revoked visa to a Uyghur leader against whom Interpol has
issued a red corner notice on insistence of China.
The
powerful National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited China on April 20 and
participated in 19th round of boundary talks
with his counterpart Yang Jiechi, besides border dispute talks were also held
on other strategic, regional and bilateral issues including counter-terrorism.
The border skirmishes are considerably declined in the recent past and both
sides decided to have peaceful negotiations.
Before
Doval, Indian’s Defence Minister Manohar Parikar reached China on April
16 on a five day visit and Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj also
met her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi during 14th Russia-India-China
summit held at Moscow on April 18.
These high level meetings were essential to diffuse the tension
which had emerged due to China’s blocking of listing of Masood Azhar Chief of
Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M) as an international terrorist in the United Nations.
Besides these meetings President Pranab Mukherjee would be
visiting China next month and Chinese President Xi Jinping would also visit
India in 2016 to attend BRICS Summit while Prime Minister Modi would make a
trip to Hangzhou to participate in G 20 meeting.
There is a stalemate in border talks since 2005 and now China is
emphasizing that as it settled territorial disputes with 12 out of 14 neighbors
excluding India and Bhutan hence India should also resolve border disagreement.
There are no demarcations on 3488 KMs Line of Actual Control (LAC) which
results in border skirmishes and it generates animosity between two nuclear
nations. Hence both countries desire to solve the border dispute amicably but
China claims that the dispute is only in Arunachal Pradesh which it declares as
part of Southern Tibet while India affirms that disagreement is in whole of LAC
including Aksai Chin which was captured by China in 1962 war.
Both Parrikar and Doval highlighted the increasing interference of
China in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) especially about constructing of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) worth USD 46 billion under which several
projects would be constructed in POK which is legally an Indian territory but
unlawfully occupied by Pakistan.
Both Parrikar and Doval met Chinese Premier Li Keqiang who
emphatically mentioned that all disputes should be sorted out amicably and the
ties between both the countries must strengthen. He told Doval that the Special
Representatives should try to resolve the border dispute peacefully and through
diplomatic channels. He emphasized that peace and tranquility should be
maintained in the region and efforts should be made to enhance economic
cooperation till the border issue is resolved. At present the world economy is
stagnant but India and China are achieving high economic growth hence they must
work in cohesion and cooperation in all spheres so that the world at large also
get a message that both the countries are working in cohesion. Doval also
discussed about increasing trade deficit of India with China which has reached
to USD 48.5 billion. Doval requested for inclusion of more items in India’s
export list so that the trade imbalance can be reduced.
India issued visa to Dolkun Isa leader of World Uyghur Congress
(WUC) to attend a conference organized by Yang Jianli a pro-democracy group
leader on April 28 at Dharamsala India. Chinese allege that Dolkun Isa and
Rebiya Kadeer both leaders of WUC organized terrorist activities in Muslim
majority Xinjiang region while WUC mention that they only draw world attention
towards the atrocities committed by Chinese authorities on Uyghur community.
In 2009 India refused visa to Rebiya Kadeer however this time
India issued visa to Isa just after China favored Pakistan by blocking India’s
move towards Masood in UN although India revoked the visa later but it gave a
clear message to Chinese leadership that if they would help terrorists like
Masood who are involved in carrying out terrorist activities in the country,
India would not hesitate in assisting terrorists who are working against China.
It is also an intelligent diplomatic move to issue the visa to Isa
and then revoke it because on one hand it gave a strong message to China and on
the other hand at present India is in no position to challenge China as the
later is much stronger hence India needs to strengthen itself, fortunately the
present government is equipping defence forces and also trying to produce
weapons indigenously. The border road organization is also constructing roads
and bridges on India- China border.
India should also try to inculcate cordial relations with all the
countries which have hostile relations with China. India can have friendly
relations with United States as it wants to contain China. India
and USA signed India-US military logistics deal on April 12 when United States
Defence Secretary Ash Carter visited New Delhi. The agreement would enhance
defence cooperation between India and United States.
However India should not play the role of a frontal state to
restrain China in Asia Pacific region. In fact India should try to have close
economic relations with China as both countries are members of BRICKS (Brazil,
Russia, India, China and South Africa), Shanghai Cooperation Organization and
several other pacts. India should try to get Chinese assistance in several
fields including development of infrastructure, railways, technology,
aerospace, energy etc. China has lot of surplus cash which can be invested in
the development of infrastructure in India.
The construction of Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic
corridor which both India and China are sponsoring would boost the trade
between all these countries and it will be beneficial for all including India.
Both India and China are fast developing economies and several
countries in the world may like to put a break on the economic progress of
these giant neighbors. These countries would try to augment the differences as
there are few points of disputes between India and China but leadership of both
the countries should act cautiously and all the disputes including border
disputes should be sorted out amicably.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a
Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired intelligence officer. The views in
the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/will-extradition-of-assange-to-us-be-travesty-of-justice/#.YcNsTSme1_ Will extradition of Assange to US be “Travesty Of Justice” ? By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 22 December 2021. All is not well with Julian Assange and his days in Belmarsh Prison, UK could just be getting over but not for the better. Recently the London High Court gave a judgement that the founder of WikiLeaks can be extradited to United States. Assange, who is an Australian, is wanted by U.S. for publishing thousands of classified diplomatic and military documents. The High Court overruled the lower court’s judgement of 04 January this year, which mentioned that Assange cannot be extradited to U.S. as he might attempt suicide in the U.S. jail. Nevertheless U.S. authorities assured the court that Assange would not be kept in solitary confinement which would reduce the risk of suicide, as doctors have mentioned that he is suffering from depression. U.S. also...
https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/americas-greatest-spy-dmitri-polyakov-was-not-an-american/ America’s Greatest Spy Dmitri Polyakov, was not an American By JK Verma New Delhi. 15 March 2024. Major General Dmitri Polyakov who was a collector of shot guns and worked as one of an uppermost officer in GRU the Soviet military intelligence organisation, provided treasure of classified information to its rival Central Investigation Agency (CIA) of United States of America. He supplied information based on documents about rising differences between Russia and China. In 1972 President Nixon used this vital information while establishing contact with China. He gave names of few U.S. military officers who were working for the then Soviet Union. He also provided technical data of Soviet- manufactured anti-tank missiles which were very useful for U.S. forces when they invaded Iraq in 1991. U.S. forces knowing the technical details of Russian weapons supplied to Iraq planned the operation...
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Both India and China two Asian giants are fighting for the leadership of Global South. China is economically stronger, as China’s economy is approximately five times bigger than India’s economy. The Indian GDP is approximately $1.5 trillion while Chinese economy is about $ seven trillion. Hence China has clear advantage over India economically but India has its strong points being a democratic country which can correspond better with European countries. India, United States, Japan, and Australia all four are members of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). In 2017 Quad was resurrected to counter the aggressive designs of China. The first formal summit of Quad was held in 2021. China termed Quad as “Asian NATO”.
Over
the past decade, China-Arab states economic and trade cooperation has scaled
new heights. China is Arab states’ biggest trading partner. In 2021, China’s
FDI stock in Arab states hit $23 billion, a 2.6 times increase over 10 years.
The trade volume topped $330.3 billion, 1.5 times more than 10 years ago. In
the first three quarters of 2022, China-Arab states trade reached $319.295
billion, up 35.28 percent year on year and close to the total of the whole year
of 2021.
US
has strong military presence in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. It sells
weapons to these countries and have naval bases in Middle Eastern countries. US
presence in this unstable area assures the production of oil. Riyadh faces big
security threat from Iran as well as its surrogate Libya.
Analysts
claim that now Riyadh does not want to depend exclusively on US as Saudis
realised that US is not a reliable partner. US response was lukewarm when Shia
militia attacked Saudi Arabia’s main refinery. US support was half-hearted
against Iran and their Yemeni proxies when they threatened Saudi Arabia, while
US made a great fuss on human right violations in Saudi Arabia. Saudis also
mention that US left Afghanistan unprotected and within a very short time
Taliban captured Kabul.
The
Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the President of the People’s Republic of China, Mr. Xi Jinping along the East
Lake, in Wuhan, China on April 28, 2018.
Courtesy : newsin24
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen
reviews a Marine Corps battalion in Kaohsiung in July 2020 (Official Photo by
Wang Yu Ching / Office of the Taiwanese President)
Both India and China two Asian giants are fighting for the leadership of Global South. China is economically stronger, as China’s economy is approximately five times bigger than India’s economy. The Indian GDP is approximately $1.5 trillion while Chinese economy is about $ seven trillion. Hence China has clear advantage over India economically but India has its strong points being a democratic country which can correspond better with European countries. India, United States, Japan, and Australia all four are members of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). In 2017 Quad was resurrected to counter the aggressive designs of China. The first formal summit of Quad was held in 2021. China termed Quad as “Asian NATO”.
THURSDAY, 23 AUGUST 2018
| 11:14:29 AM
Many
are apprehensive that the Chinese Government is determined to wipe out Islam
from the country. It is instructive that petro-dollar rich countries are not
coming out to condemn Beijing
New Delhi. 04 July 2018. When it comes to the
Himalayas the trinity of India-Nepal-China seems the most complex and when it
comes to geopolitics of the region Nepal looks like the happy tomato in the
sandwich . Trying to balance between the two big wigs on its either side, Nepal
has a tough path to tread on , but not an impossible one.
Oli and his party may try to
replace India by taking assistance from Beijing but it will be difficult for
China to replace India due to geographical reasons. Beijing is an expansionist
country and its strategy is to construct jumbo infrastructure projects in
financially starved neighbourhood by giving loans at higher rates. After
sometime the neighbouring countries are unable to pay the loan and China
occupies the strategic ports and areas. China signed Free Trade Agreement and
took one island of Maldives and negotiating to take one more island. Beijing
also invested huge amount in Bangladesh and in this way besides creating jobs
for Chinese and good return of their investment China is also encircling India
which is a potential rival.
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