Myanmar

Is Myanmar Army taking the nation towards a debacle? • Is it loosing hold? • Will it get ousted by 3 Brotherhood Alliance? • Has China-Myanmar bond weakened? By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. November 2023. The military junta appointed President Myint Swe stated during a national defence and security council meeting, that, “If the government does not effectively manage the incidents happening in the border region, the country will be split into various parts.” According to an estimate 50 percent of the territory is in control of rebels while in few states it is 70-80 percent. The rebels are destroying and burning government buildings. Few Chinese were also killed. Myanmar’s position is becoming critical as the rebels are gaining control in large areas of the country. The military junta is bombarding the areas but is not able to recapture the lost territory. Myanmar army is facing large number of defections and recruitment is dropping. This is the state of a country in which political turbulence is not new, military rule not a novelty but military getting more and more sidelined is surely unusual. The Three Brotherhood Alliance, which is also known as Brotherhood Alliance consists of Arkan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, has initiated Operation 1027 against Myanmar military Junta from 27 October 2023. The alliance was constituted in June 2019, did not violently resisted the military coup in 2021 and only issued a statement. The Brotherhood Alliance started attacks on Myanmar security forces in northern Shan State and in few weeks captured more than 150 military outposts, important cities, and towns. The alliance also got control of strategic highways and roads. The Myanmar army failed to win back the lost territories. Operation 1027 is important and has far reaching effects. Although the Brotherhood Alliance had not resisted at the time of military takeover, it now has aligned itself openly with the pro-democracy movement. Hence the strength of pro-democracy movement enhanced while the power of military junta dwindled. Although military has superior air and artillery power, it has to stretch itself more than its capacity. The Chinese assistance to military junta has not given the desired result and resistance against junta is becoming formidable. The pro-democracy forces are requesting the democratic world to extend full support to them at this crucial juncture. With resistance against military increasing, strength of pro-democracy parallel National Unity Government is enhancing. Military is holding cities and towns while the rebels are controlling the rural areas. As military becoming more and more unpopular because of its repressive measures, it is able to control areas only because of its air and artillery power. The rebels have also captured Hsenwi town which cuts the main road to China. Capturing the road which connects China is important as China is an important international supporter to military junta. The Brotherhood Alliance also seized Kawlin, and Khampat both towns near Indian borders. Fighting is also going on at other places including Chin, Kayah, and Rakhine States. The rebels are working in a well chalked out strategy under which they are attacking small towns, strategic roads, and isolated security posts. The violence is adversely affecting the economic condition of the country. The strength of the military is reducing and the rebels are attacking army convoys and its supply lines. Sanctions imposed by U.S., U.K. and E.U. are adversely affecting Myanmar’s economic condition. The military junta’s strategy of dividing the rebels on ethnic lines is not working. Myanmar has 135 documented ethnic minorities which is about one-third of the country’s population. Myanmar has a total land area of 677,000 square kilometres and about half of it is inhabited by the minorities. The eight main ethnic groups include Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Chin, Mon, Bamar, Rakhine and Shan. Out of these groups Bamars (or Burmans) are largest and most powerful as they comprise 68 percent of total population. Burmans occupy most of important positions in bureaucracy, defence forces and even in economy. Burmans are mostly Buddhists while minorities include Christians, and of other religions. The minorities complain about discrimination as well as exploitation and several times have revolted against the rule of Burmans. There are several armed ethnic groups, and they continuously fight against the central rule. Nevertheless, army always tries to generate differences between these ethnic minority groups so that they remain busy in infighting. The ethnic groups understood the strategy of Tatmadaw (Myanmar military junta) and the Brotherhood Alliance remains intact. It appears that the partners in Brotherhood Alliance might be seeing an opportunity to achieve their old demand of autonomy. The Ministry of Defence of the National Unity Government (NUG) issued a statement that “The moment has arrived for all revolutionary organizations, the forces of the Spring Revolution, and the people to fully engage in the elimination of the military dictatorship and wholeheartedly commit to the establishment of a Federal Democratic Union,”. The fighting was initiated in Shan but soon it spread in Kachin, Sagaing, Chin, Rakhine, Kayan, and Mon. The anti-military rebellion is becoming stronger and gaining ground while the military is becoming weak. Democracy loving people of Bamar community are also opposing the military rule. In the beginning China was not only supporting overtly the military junta but also maintained ties with the overthrown National League for Democracy party. China also maintained rapport with ethnic armed outfits. However later Beijing realised that U.S. is supporting pro-democracy movement hence it started supporting military regime openly. Beijing also tried to mediate between military regime and democratic forces. Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army which consists of Kokang Chinese are close to China and a part of Brotherhood Alliance and China tried to mediate through them. Beijing mostly supported the border ethnic armed outfits through United Wa State Army (UWSA). The outfit has about 20000 to 30000 fighters and it is the most powerful group in Myanmar. UWSA controls Wa state and towns along China and Thai borders. However, China is losing control and Brotherhood Alliance has decided that Myanmar Army must hand over power. It is a set back to China as now China expects more refugees. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning issued a statement that also said that “China calls on relevant parties to settle disputes in a peaceful manner through dialogue and consultation, avoid escalation of the situation, and take effective measures to ensure the security and stability of China-Myanmar border areas.” Myanmar Defence Minister met Chinese military officials and Chinese Minister of Public Security also visited Myanmar to discuss the issue. Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister also visited Myanmar in first week of November and requested military junta to cooperate on border security. Although Beijing has not made its position clear, but it appears that it is weighing the situation and would keep both the options open. India’s four states namely Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Manipur shares 1,600 kms border with Myanmar. According to official figures 35,000 refugees have already entered India, since army took over Myanmar in 2021. Myanmar nationals can enter 16Km in Mizoran under the Free Movement Regime. Hence India expects influx of refugees if the internal conflict continues in Myanmar. The influx of refugees would create more problems in Manipur which is already facing law and order problem. Besides law-and-order problem the smuggling of drugs would also enhance. Indian army has close contact with Myanmar Army, however the belief that only Myanmar Army would control the terrorist groups which are attacking Indian forces may not be a pragmatic belief. In past Myanmar Army helped Indian forces in eliminating terrorist outfits but Myanmar has not cleared out all terrorist outfits like Bhutan and Bangladesh. Hence India should reduce its dependency on Myanmar Army. India’s belief that Myanmar Army would help in containing China is also not true. At present Myanmar is facing a protracted low intensity conflict like Libya and Syria. This conflict may continue for years, and it would not only destroy the economy of the country, but it would have adverse effect on India. With military junta failing, international community should pressurise it to restore democracy and senior leaders of political parties including Aung San Suu Kyi should be released from the prison. Military junta should hold a free and fair election under supervision of international experts. Once democratic government comes to power, constitution should be amended in such a way that the interference of military junta in civil administration finishes, so that in future the army does not stage a coup and depose the duly elected government. United States and other western countries can initiate negotiations with the military junta that if it hands over power to the democratically elected representatives, the economic sanctions can be withdrawn. U.S. should also try to convince China that it should stop assisting the military regime. Myanmar army should restore democratic rule in the country, constitution should be amended so that minorities get their due representation. If minorities get their rights, partition of the country can be avoided as at present rebels do not want to secede from Myanmar. They are fighting for limited autonomy as well as for establishment of democracy in the country. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 

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Closeness Between Pakistan and Myanmar Under Chinese Guidance May be Harmful to India

China is assisting Pakistan to strengthen defence ties with Myanmar. Beijing wants to fulfil its agenda through its proxy because there is an intense anti-China sentiment among the people in Myanmar. Pakistan is delighted because Myanmar shares a border with India through which Pakistan can infiltrate terrorists and supply weapons to the insurgent groups in the North Eastern States. India needs to be cautious

By Jai Kumar Verma

December 10, 2022AdminForeign Affairs

The military ties between the Pakistan army and Myanmar military junta are increasing rapidly. China, which considers India as its prospective challenger, is assisting Pakistan to strengthen defence cooperation with Myanmar. Pakistan, which considers India as its enemy, is delighted to strengthen its defence ties with the military junta of Myanmar as it feels that it has cultivated one more friend in the region. Not only this Pakistan, which has waged a low-intensity war against India, is also eager to inculcate friendship with the countries, which share borders with India. Myanmar shares a land border of about 1600 km with India, besides it, both countries also have a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. India’s four North Eastern States namely Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram share international borders with Myanmar. As both countries have strong religious, linguistic, and ethnic ties hence there is heavy traffic between both countries. The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan would try to exploit the traffic. There are reports that ISI was funding, training, and supplying arms and ammunition to the insurgent groups of North Eastern States. Not only this, ISI was also sending weapons and infiltrating terrorists through these borders.

A Pakistani defence delegation secretly visited the Myanmar defence industry complex near Yangon in October and extended assistance in the maintenance of aircraft. Myanmar is using JF-17 jets, manufactured in China and assembled in Pakistan. These planes were purchased from Pakistan

In October 2022, a high-level defence delegation from Pakistan visited the Myanmar defence industry complex near Yangon secretly. During the visit, the Pakistani delegation proposed that Pakistan can extend assistance to the Myanmar army in the repair and maintenance of aircraft. The visit of the Pakistani defence delegation was at the behest of China as Myanmar is using JF-17 jets, which are manufactured in China’s Chengdu Aerospace Cooperation and assembled in Pakistan Aeronautical Complex although Islamabad claims that JF-17 was developed by both countries. These planes were purchased from Pakistan. JF-17 has the capability of ground attack as well as combat in the air. It can deliver bombs as well as precision-guided munition such as smart bombs, smart munition and smart weapons. These fighter planes suit Myanmar’s military regime as they have to suppress indigenous dissension and agitations.

The visit of the defence delegation is significant because, after the withdrawal of the US-led NATO troops from Afghanistan, China is trying to enhance its influence in various countries, especially in neighbouring countries, directly or through its proxies.

Pakistan’s police are also training Myanmar police officers in mine disposal in Karachi. Eight officers of the Myanmar police were trained during September 10-30 in Karachi in explosives and mine disposal techniques.

A high-level defence delegation from Pakistan also visited Myanmar in the first week of September 2021. The visit of the delegation, headed by a brigadier, was not announced. The Pakistani delegation reached Myanmar on September 1 and left the country on September 5 in 2021. During the visit, officers of both countries discussed the exchange of advanced ordnance technology, aircraft repair and maintenance and naval munitions. According to reports, now both countries are in the final stages of discussion about the building of third-generation aircraft under licence.

 After the withdrawal of the US-led NATO troops from Afghanistan, China is trying to enhance its influence in various countries, especially in neighbouring countries, directly or through its proxies

The relations between Pakistan and Myanmar became tense when Myanmar evicted Rohingya Muslims forcibly. There are reports that in 2018 Myanmar embassy in Pakistan spent a huge sum to provide security to the embassy and its staff as there were reports that Islamic extremists would be targeting Myanmar embassy personnel due to atrocities committed on Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar. At that time, there were demonstrations and protests in several cities of Pakistan against the Myanmar government. Not only this, there were reports that ISI imparted weapon training to Rohingya Muslims residing in Cox Bazar, Bangladesh. However, China which wants to develop its influence in the world, especially in neighbouring countries, pressed both countries to have cordial relations.

Min Aung Hlaing, a senior army general, also visited Pakistan Aeronautical Complex in Kamra in 2015. Now Islamabad also wants to inculcate friendly relations with Myanmar as Pakistan can export arms and ammunition to Myanmar, which is facing several sanctions from the democratic world.

China’s Special Envoy Sun Guoxiang also visited Myanmar and met with senior military officials including General Min Aung Hlaing. China and Pakistan both want to develop close relations with military rulers as both these countries feel that the military would continue ruling the country and democratic government would not come soon in Myanmar. Hence Pakistan would enhance its defence ties with the military rulers of Myanmar.

There is an intense anti-China feeling among the masses in Myanmar hence Beijing wants that Islamabad imparts training to Myanmar armed personnel. As Pakistan has also a large number of Chinese weapons and platforms it can assist Myanmar in its maintenance, training, and sale of spare parts. China is using Pakistan not only for arms export but also wants to export other materials, which it is finding difficult to export due to massive anti-China sentiments among the masses. Chinese state-owned companies illicitly occupied the land of the farmers at the time of the implementation of FDI in oil and gas projects in Myanmar. The oil and gas pipeline ran between Kyauk Phyu in Rakhine state to Nam Kham, a town near China border. The Myanmar masses feel that China is a supporter of military rulers hence the public has attacked and destroyed the Chinese properties in Myanmar.

Pakistan’s police are training Myanmar police officers in mine disposal in Karachi. Eight officers of the Myanmar police were trained during September 10-30 in Karachi in explosives and mine disposal techniques

China also does not want to export armaments to Myanmar as it does not want to show that it is supporting the military rulers who would be using these arms to suppress the democratic forces. It would damage its international image.

There are reports that the Myanmar military is planning to purchase 60- and 81-mm mortars, heavy machine guns and M-79 grenade launchers, and would also acquire air-to-surface missiles from Pakistan.

The report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) mentioned that China’s share of arms export in the world market has dwindled from 5.5 to 5.2 per cent but the reality is that now China is exporting arms through its proxy Pakistan. In 2020, Indian customs officials on the basis of intelligence detained a ship, which was coming from Jiangyin Port in China and was going to Karachi. The ship was carrying an autoclave, which can be used to launch ballistic missiles.

The analysts claim that Pakistan at the behest of China is focusing beyond the export of military hardware to Myanmar, which is ruled by the military junta. The ISI also wants to use ports built by China in Myanmar and it wants to infiltrate Islamic terrorists through Myanmar as Indian security forces have tightened the security on Indo-Pakistan borders. Pakistan is getting assistance from Aye Ne Win who is the grandson of General Ne Win and is close to ISI and Myanmar army rulers. The construction of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which links China with Myanmar, is going on with good speed. Chinese can use the land route as well as the sea route through the naval base Sittwe against India.

There are reports that the Myanmar military is planning to purchase 60- and 81-mm mortars, heavy machine guns and M-79 grenade launchers, and would also acquire air-to-surface missiles from Pakistan

Although China considers the USA its enemy number one, it also knows that India is its opponent in the region. It wants to encircle India through its neighbours and hence it is rendering all types of assistance including military hardware to Myanmar. Beijing is exploiting its natural resources as well as its strategic location.

At present, the world is involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, and China taking advantage of it, is assisting the military rulers of Myanmar sometimes directly but most of the time through its proxy i.e., Pakistan. However, anti-China sentiments are increasing in Myanmar and once a democratic regime is established in the country people may boycott not only China but Pakistan too.

However, India should be cautious as ISI would use Myanmar for infiltrating terrorists and supplying arms and ammunition to terrorist outfits operating in India. Delhi is able to control several secessionist groups operating in the North Eastern States. ISI would certainly try to support them so that law and order deteriorate in these states. China, which is developing ports and other infrastructure in Myanmar, may also use them against India if needed. At present, Indian security planners are worried because of the nexus between China and Pakistan, the situation would be more dangerous if Myanmar also joins China and Pakistan against India.

-The writer is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s.

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Will China Be Benefitted By The Recent Coup In Myanmar?

• Or did China stage it remotely?

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 15 February 2021. Pillars of democracy not only shook but were swept away in the military tsunami of Myamnar. On 1st February 2021 Commander in Chief of Myanmar Army, General Min Aung Hlaing overthrew the democratically elected civilian government through a bloodless coup. The leaders of ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) including Nobel Laureate Aung San Kyi and president of the country were arrested by the army which is also known as Tatmadaw.

China which always maintained close relations with the army generals of Myanmar and constantly supported the army instead of democratic forces,  has blocked the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution condemning the military coup in Myanmar.

The army deposed the government few hours before the start of the new session of the parliament where NLD had a massive majority. NLD won 396 seats out of 476 seats in the general elections held in November 2020. The army declared emergency for a year as its protégé Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won only 33 seats. It was a great debacle for the USDP as well as for the army. Both USDP and army alleged that there were massive fraud in the voting and the voters list was fabricated. Although the election commission rejected the allegations but USDP filed several complaints to the election commission and a case was also filed in the supreme court.

The army has wide powers under 2008 Constitution but still it became apprehensive of the rising popularity of Suu Kyi. The military generals also became suspicious of the close contacts established between Chinese government and Suu Kyi. The international media was also pleading that General Min Aung Hlaing should be punished for causing inhuman atrocities on Rohingya Muslims. There were also pressure from international community to take back Rohingya Muslims. Although Suu Kyi defended the army and stated that there were no brutalities but also agreed to take back Rohingya Muslims. The army was against taking back of Rohingya Muslims as the security forces allege that they are secessionists and fight for carving out a separate homeland. 

China, which is the closest ally of Myanmar army, stated that imposing of sanctions and much international pressure would be ineffectual. In past also China has defended Myanmar army in UN as well as in other international forums, when the army was suppressing the Rohingya Muslims. If the international community put rigorous sanctions, it will benefit Beijing as the dependence of Myanmar will increase manifold in China.

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China is pressing that it is an internal matter of Myanmar while the state controlled Chinese media is projecting it as a ‘cabinet reshuffle’ however the public of Myanmar is constantly demonstrating against the coup. The public is suspecting Chinese hand behind the coup hence there were also demonstrations in front of Chinese Embassy in Yangon.

The security forces used rubber bullets on the peaceful demonstrators in Mawlamyine on 12 February while the protesters also threw stones and water bottles on the security personnel. The protesters were demanding release of Aung San Suu Kyi and restoration of democracy. There were protests and demonstrations at several places in the country as the public defied the ban on big gatherings. The military also imposed night curfew in few cities. Government employees also joinined the civil disobedience movement. About 40 police officers joined the protests in Loikaw town. In a massive demonstration in Naypyidaw one woman received a bullet injury and her condition is critical. Police detained about 80 demonstrators in Mandalay while about 200 doctors and medical staff also joined protests. More than 500 government employees including security personnel joined protests in Naypyidaw the capital of Myanmar and about 1,000 joined a street protest at Thabyegon. The offices of NLD were raided and security forces used excessive force against the peaceful demonstrators.

The rebellion is growing against the military junta. Besides demonstrations public is also showing resentment through banging of pots and honking of the car horns. The demonstrators displayed placards and flashed “three finger defiance salute” which was first showed by medical staff but soon adopted by other young demonstrators. The military rulers also organised some pro-military demonstrations in few places including Pathein, Ayeyarwady region.     

There is strong reaction in the democratic world. In his first public address on Myanmar, U.S. President Joe Biden besides mentioning that the army should go back to barracks and democracy should be restored also announced quite a few sanctions against the military rulers of Myanmar. The military government is prevented from utilising USD 1 billion of Myanmar’s funds in U.S. The sanctions would be imposed on the business interests of military rulers and their family members in U.S. The U.S. State Department spokesperson mentioned that as protests are growing in Myanmar it indicates that the public is against the coup and they should not resort to violence against the peaceful demonstrators. Very soon U.S. would impose export controls also. U.S. had levied sanctions against military rulers of Myanmar in past, but the sanctions were removed in 2011. General Min Aung Hlaing and few other military generals are already facing U.S. sanctions due to atrocities and eviction of Rohingya Muslims. The U.S. also requested other U.N. members to pressurise Myanmar military to restore the democracy in the country.

The Human Rights Council is also working to establish human rights in Myanmar. The U.N.’s special rapporteur on human rights situation in Myanmar also projected a dim picture as he mentioned about the lethal force used by security forces against the peaceful protests in the country. He also stated that security forces have obligation under international law not to use excessive force against the demonstrators.

Not only China but other countries of the region including Cambodia, Thailand and Philippines also mentioned it as an “internal matter” of Myanmar. The Myanmar military overthrown the civilian government just three weeks after the visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Myanmar. Wang Yi besides Suu Kyi also met military generals and the possibility that the Chinese Foreign Minister gave the tacit go-ahead to military general cannot be ruled out. China is not only the biggest supplier of arms and ammunition to Myanmar but is also the leading foreign investor in the country. China also needs help for its prime project “Belt and Road Initiative” hence it will continue its support to coup leaders. China is investing in several sectors including mining, oil and gas pipelines, hydropower, and other infrastructure projects. The local population is against several projects hence China may need army support to curb the local opposition. China is more comfortable in dealing with army than civilian government and Pakistan is an important example of it. As Pakistani masses are against the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Pakistan army took over the project under its control on behest of China.

The investment of western countries is minimal in comparison of China.

The western countries have already imposed sanctions on General Min Aung Hliang and other top military generals as well as on other businesses as there are human right abuses. Hence the impact of these sanctions on military leadership will not be much. In fact, these sanctions will be counterproductive as because of these sanctions the military leaders will become more dependent on China. At present the military especially the young military officers were against the country’s dependence on China and they wanted to import arms, ammunition and other articles from different countries including India. Japan, Singapore, and other countries which also invested heavily in Myanmar may put more restrictions which will also benefit China. Myanmar army has also deep suspicion on China as in past it clandestinely supported communist rebels and ethnic terrorist groups.

Besides economic interests China also understands the strategic importance of Myanmar. China which is supplying finished goods to the world is also eager to exploit the mineral resources of Myanmar. China will develop China-Myanmar Economic Corridor which will give access to Yunnan province of China in the Bay of Bengal.  

The army generals are mentioning that they will restore democracy after a year but in past they never fulfilled their promise hence they cannot be trusted. The impact of the sanctions on military rulers would be very less hence the world should adopt a balanced approach and the problem can be resolved through persuasion, negotiations, and dialogue. Stringent sanctions will be counterproductive, and it will benefit China. India is pursuing a balanced policy and it will give a desired result in future.    

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com) 

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Myanmar Military Ruled the Country for Five Decades Stages Coup Once Again

An old adage is ‘History repeats itself’ and it holds true in case of ruling in Myanmar. The Myanmar Military which ruled the country for almost five decades once again staged a coup while arresting all the civilian leaders, besides other stakeholders, in the government

February 6, 2021EditorOpinion

By Jai Kumar Verma

General Min Aung Hlaing, Commander in Chief of powerful Myanmar army which is also known as Tatmadaw staged a coup on February 1. The army took control of Myanmar, civilian leadership including Aung San Suu Kyi, president Win Myint, all chief ministers of ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) were taken into custody at gun point. Party’s Central Executive Committee Members, legislators and regional Cabinet members were also detained.</str

The army declared emergency for a year after overthrowing the democratically elected government. The civilian government was toppled hours before start of the session of newly elected government. The NLD won 396 seats out of 476 seats in November 2020 elections while army backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won just 33 seats and it created the tension between military and the civilian government. The performance of USDP deteriorated while NLD did better than 2015 elections. The army became suspicious because of rising popularity of NLD especially of Aung San Suu Kyi.

The army ousted the civilian government on February 1 so that the newly elected parliament does not start its functions. Few hours after the coup, government-controlled television broadcast that the power is transferred to Commander in Chief, Min Aung Hlaing and Myint Swe will be the president of the country. Myint Swe is a former general and was appointed as Vice President by the army in the previous government.

The army declared emergency for a year after overthrowing the democratically elected government. The civilian government was toppled hours before start of the session of newly elected government

The relations between military and civilian government become tense as the Myanmar military was uncomfortable because its proxy party USDP won very few seats while NLD got landslide victory in November 2020 elections. It was the reason that both USDP and military were alleging that there was massive fraud in the elections. Nevertheless, Myanmar election commission made it clear that the elections were free and fair and there was no evidence that the elections were rigged.

Both military and USDP were demanding that there should be thorough investigation of mass voting fraud. USDP members submitted several petitions mentioning about colossal discrepancies in voters list before election commission as well as Supreme Court. The petitioners also claimed that voters list was prepared during Coronavirus pandemic hence it has several inconsistencies as at that time election commission workers could not visit all the places. Secondly there were law and order problems at few areas and the voting lists of those areas were also not correct.

Courtesy: CFR

The United Nations and the European Union mentioned that the military must respect the verdict of the November elections. Nonetheless the army made it clear that the election results were unacceptable because of massive fraud.

The 2008 Constitution gives enormous powers to the military as it guarantees 25 per cent seats in Parliament and also gives powerful ministries including home, defence, and border affairs to the military. The 2008 Constitution which was prepared during Junta rule permits the military to take power during emergency to stop the disintegration of the country. In fact, the Constitution gives power to the army to take over on flimsy grounds. The Constitution was framed in such a way that it is exceedingly difficult for the civilian government to amend the Constitution because the amendment in it requires 75 per cent votes in Parliament while 25 per cent seats are controlled by the military.

The international community criticised the military coup. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a statement same day mentioning that “We have noted the developments in Myanmar with deep concern. India has always been steadfast in its support to the process of democratic transition in Myanmar. We believe that the rule of law and the democratic process must be upheld. We are monitoring the situation closely.” Jen Psaki, press secretary of White House, stated that “The United States opposes any attempt to alter the outcome of recent elections or impede Myanmar’s democratic transition and will take action against those responsible if these steps are not reversed.”

The relations between military and civilian government become tense as the Myanmar military was uncomfortable because its proxy party USDP won very few seats while NLD got landslide victory in November 2020 elections

US President Joe Biden in a separate statement mentioned that the military takeover in Myanmar was a direct assault on transition of democracy. The spokesman of United Nations Secretary General while condemning the military coup in Myanmar mentioned that it was a “serious blow to democratic reforms in Myanmar.” The military takeover was condemned by several other world leaders too.

China has high stakes in Myanmar as it has heavily invested in the country. Few analysts claim that China is supporting the army as the young army and civilian officers want to reduce Myanmar’s dependence on China. At present most of the weaponry of Myanmar is supplied by China. The young officers want to divert the procurement so that the country’s dependence on China is reduced. These officers want to procure arms and ammunition from India too.

Myanmar watchers also claim that the 64-year-old general was involved in corruption cases and in 2016 and 2017 there was crackdown on Rohingya Muslims and there were serious allegations of murder, rape, looting by the army. The UN Human Rights Council mentioned that as there were serious allegations on Myanmar army including Commander in Chief General Min Aung Hlaing hence there should be investigation and general should be prosecuted for genocide. General Min Aung Hlaing will complete 65 years in July and then he would be retired, as the chances of extension by NLD government were remote, hence he overthrew the government so that he can continue in power and he cannot be prosecuted.

Aung San Suu Kyi is extremely popular in the country and hundreds of thousands of her followers criticised the military takeover on the social media. However, there was no major violence in the country and the army blocked roads, and the internet and a message appeared that “server not found,” international and domestic TV channels went off air and banks were closed. 24 ministers and their deputies were removed and 11 ministers including health, interior, foreign affairs and finance were appointed. Curfew was also imposed for some time.

The 75 years old pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi was kept in detention for over 15 years between 1989 and 2010 and was given Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. The army is afraid of her rising popularity as she was achieving a godlike status among the masses. It is believed that she had large following in army also and several army persons and their family members have voted in her favour otherwise NLD would have not won with such a huge margin. In view of the extensive international support and popularity of Suu Kyi, the military have to restore the democracy in the country.

The international community criticised the military coup. MEA issued a statement same day mentioning that “We have noted the developments in Myanmar with deep concern. India has always been steadfast in its support to the process of democratic transition in Myanmar

It appears that General Min Aung Hlaing will utilise one year time in strengthening the military supported USDP. The military will also try to malign NLD and its leadership including Suu Kyi. Although Suu Kyi supported the army internationally when it perpetrated atrocities on minority Rohingya Muslims, but the army lost patience as the popularity of Suu Kyi was increasing. As Suu Kyi is a strong-willed person she will not cooperate with the army and army will have to restore the democracy. Hence army’s overthrowing of the civilian government may prove to be a reckless move under which the prestige of the nation is lowered without any gain.

-The writer is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of USI and IDSA. The views in the article are solely of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda

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ROHINGYAS: A SECURITY THREAT

Tuesday, 01 May 2018 | Jai Kumar Verma | in Oped35

India has taken the right decision to not bow down to international pressure and, instead, repatriate Rohingya refugees. It must now formulate a refugee policy

India is neither a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention  nor to the Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees that came to force in 1967. Still, refugees continue to pour and  the country has more than 3,00,000 refugees from 30 different countries. The number of illegal refugees may be much more.

According to reports, about 11 lakh Rohingyas have already reached Bangladesh and many may try to infiltrate into India. The UN termed it as “ethnic cleansing” of Rohingya in Myanmar while the Army over there said that military action is against terrorists and that they are not averse to civilians. Unqualified Rohingya refugees are unacceptable as they are regarded as a burden on the economy. A majority of the Buddhist community in Myanmar considers Rohingyas as illegal Bengali migrants. No citizenship rights were given to the Rohingyas and numerous restrictions were imposed on them. Rohingyas are Sunni Muslims and have fought for an independent country in the past. In 1947 and 1971, they struggled to join East Pakistan and Bangladesh respectively.

Rohingya Muslims have also constituted a few terrorist organisations, including the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation, the Harkat-al Yaqin, the Arakan Rohingya and Salvation Army (ARSA) to wage war and establish an independent Muslim state. Unfortunately, a few Muslim terrorist organisations, especially in Pakistan, started assisting these terrorist outfits. Besides Pakistan, few Muslim organisations in the Middle East also pumped petro dollars into the coffers of Rohingya terrorist outfits.

In fact, the present crisis erupted when the Myanmar Army took reprisal of the attack on August 25, 2017, by ARSA terrorists on 30 police posts and one Army base in which about 12 security personnel were killed. Before this major assault, Rohingya terrorists also attacked Government offices in 2016 and killed about nine police personnel. Prior to these attacks, they also killed Buddhists and Hindus who were residing in the area of their control. Intelligence sources claim that when the Myanmar Army took control of the Rohingya dominated areas, mass graves of Hindus and Buddhists were unearthed.

ARSA was formed by a Pakistani  residing in Saudi Arabia; and as Rohingyas were living below the poverty line in Myanmar as well as in Bangladesh, they were vulnerable and were exploited by Islamic extremists. The Islamic State (IS), which has put a massive hate material on the Internet, was able to recruit a few Rohingya Muslims who went to Syria and Iraq to fight in conjunction with the IS.  There are also reports that the IS and the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba are trying to recruit Rohingyas  staying in Jammu while the Al Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent has also supported the Rohingyas.

Aqa Mul Mujahidin, the terrorist outfit of Rohingya Muslims, has links with the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Pakistan, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and LeT.  There are also reports that the Rohingyas, settled in Jammu illegally, helped terrorists of JeM in the reconnaissance of the Army camp in Sunjuwan. JeM attacked the Army camp on February 10 in which six Indian Army personnel were martyred.

India shares a porous border with Bangladesh and, hence, it is expected that a large number of Rohingya Muslims will cross the border. This is hazardous. According to official figures, about 40,000 Rohingya refugees have already entered the country while analysts believe that the actual number is much more. Both Bangladesh and Indian security personnel claim that Rohingya Muslims are a big threat to the security of the region as a large number of young Rohingyas are thoroughly radicalised. The camps of Rohingya refugees are in Chittagong area of Bangladesh which is infamous for Islamic extremism and secessionist activities. In the past, terrorists from the North-East took shelter in this region before and after terrorist attacks in India. After Sheikh Hasina came to power, these terrorist camps were destroyed.

Unfortunately, a large number of NGOs, working with the Rohingyas, have Islamic extremist leanings and inculcate radicalism in them. As this is the election year in Bangladesh, the present Government is not wanting to take any action against Islamic terrorists. China is also augmenting its influence in Rakhine Province as well as in Bangladesh by assisting it in the gargantuan Rohingya refugee problem. China, which wants to keep foreign powers away from the Rakhine state, is silently trying with Myanmar and Bangladesh to solve the refugee problem amicably with an ulterior motive of enhancing its influence and keeping India away from both its neighbours. Hence, India has to be very cautious.  On the one hand, it must boost its influence. On the other, it must see to it that China does not increase its sway, thereby mitigating India’s position.

Myanmar and Bangladesh signed an agreement in November last year to facilitate the return of Rohingya refugees but the Accord did not deliver desired results. The present Government, on the basis of analysis of intelligence agencies, stated in the Supreme Court that a few Rohingya  refugees have terrorist background and were active in Delhi, Jammu, Hyderabad and Mewat. It is important to note that Rohingya Muslims have settled in Jammu where non-Kashmiris are not allowed to settle. Second,  their helpers settled them in Hindu populated Jammu and not in the Valley. Rohingya refugees are scattered in several places across the country. This will make their repatriation very difficult.

The Government of India has taken the righteous decision to not bow down to international pressure and instead, to repatriate Rohingya refugees. The Government should now be firm in dealing with biased Muslim organisations, NGOs, human right activists and hypocrites who do not think before criticising the Government. India has limited resources and huge population. Hence, people have full right on resources. Second, India is already fighting with terrorism at several places, including Pakistan-sponsored terrorism as well as Left Wing Extremism.  Hence, India cannot afford a large number of radical Rohingyas in diverse parts of the country.

New Delhi very rightly chalked out a long-term plan to deal the crisis. India sent 7,000 tonne of relief material to Bangladesh under operation Insaniyat and also sanctioned $25 million to Myanmar for the development of infrastructure in Rakhine State so that Rohingya refugees can return back to their homeland. Indian authorities are also negotiating with officials in Myanmar to pave the way for the return of the Rohingyas.

Rohingyas do not have citizenship rights, Myanmar authorities have formulated a very stringent verification criteria and because of their past history, there exists severe anti-Rohingya sentiments in Myanmar. Hence, it will be difficult to repatriate them. It is, therefore, important for Indian security agencies to enhance vigilance on the border areas.

Several Rohingyas have obtained documents like Aadhaar card, pan card and even voter-ID cards through fraudulent means. Unfortunately, there are a few NGOs and so-called human rights activists who go out of the way to assist these illegal immigrants and render assistance in their illegal settlement with ulterior motives. They may start a legal battle; raise slogans and organise demonstrations in favour of Rohingyas and, hence, make their deportation difficult. 

At present, India has no refugee policy, the country must formulate a detailed refugee policy so that illegal immigrants can be handled properly. In a nutshell, India is not responsible for the present exodus. Hence, the Government must resist pressure —international as well as national — and not allow Rohingya refugees to settle in India. Several of them may turn jihadists or may work as ‘lone wolf’ and carryout terrorist activities.

(The writer is member, United Services Institute of India, and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)

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Stateless Rohingya Muslims are fodder for jihadists

Posted:Feb 19, 2017

By Jai Kumar Verma

There are reports that international Islamic terrorist outfits, particularly the Islamic State and Al Qaeda, are recruiting young Rohingya Muslims for carrying out terrorist activities in the name of jihad. There are also reports that Pakistan’s sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) is also enrolling immature Rohingya Muslims for terrorist activities in India after imparting them training in terrorist camps in Pakistan. 

In October, foreign-trained Rohingya Muslims killed nine Myanmar Border Guard personnel on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border. Again on November 3, six Rohingya Muslims attacked 11 Myanmar police personnel killing one police officer and injuring several others. Besides these attacks, there were reports that Rohingyas were radicalised and they clashed with Buddhists in Rakhine state. 

After these attacks, the present government launched a massive clearance operation in Rakhine state which is the home of Rohingya Muslims. The Myanmar security personnel resorted to extra judicial killings, rapes and merciless beatings of Rohingya Muslims. A large number of suspected extremists and their supporters were imprisoned. According to United Nations observers, about 65,000 Rohingya Muslims took refuge in Bangladesh. 

There are widespread allegations that after the communal violence of 2012 between Muslim and Buddhist communities in Rakhine state, the atrocities on Rohingya Muslims have considerably increased and more than 810,000 Rohingyas were displaced and are living without any citizenship in Myanmar. About 200,000 Rohingyas are residing in unofficial camps where the living conditions are deplorable. The majority Buddhist community, with the connivance of security forces, damaged mosques and ruined business enterprises of Muslims.  

The Myanmar security forces deal with Rohingya Muslims mercilessly and when they migrate to Bangladesh, which is an Islamic country, their troubles do not end as Bangladesh also treats them equally cruelly. 

The present National League of Democracy (NLD) government has barred the entry of media as well as of human right activists in the troubled areas. Hence, the international community partially remained in the dark but mainly took little interest in the pitiable plight of Rohingyas. Recently Pope Francis condemned the atrocities on Rohingyas which is good as it will attract international attention.   

In view of the pitiable condition of Rohingya Muslims, various international terrorist organisations, primarily Islamic terrorist outfits, are making efforts to convert them as extremists and recruiting them for carrying out terrorist activities in various countries. 

According to latest intelligence output, ISI-sponsored terrorist outfits like Lashkar-e-Toiba, (LeT) and Jaish-e- Mohammed (JeM) are recruiting Rohingyas through support agents. Once young Rohingyas are recruited they are sent to Pakistan via Nepal or Middle Eastern countries. In Pakistan, first they are given lessons on extremist Islam and once they became fanatic Muslims they are given training in arms and ammunition, preparation of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and carrying out terrorist activities. ISI will like to use them as suicide bombers as these Rohingyas have suffered lot of atrocities from non-Muslims and have thus inculcated ingrained hatred towards other religions hence it may not be difficult to convert them as suicide bombers. 

The present Indian government has taken a stringent view about the infiltration of Pakistani terrorists in Jammu & Kashmir and, according to reports, the Indian Army as well as the Para-Military Forces are exterminating Pakistani infiltrators under the search operations. Hence, ISI would like to utilise Rohingyas for carrying out terrorist activities in J&K. There are reports that Rohingyas have taken refuge in J&K hence it would be easy for ISI agents to recruit them for terrorist activities. 

The analysts claim that ISI would use Rohingyas not only in India but also utilise them  to carry out terrorist activities in Myanmar and Bangladesh and a few would also be sent to Afghanistan for carrying out bomb blasts. Rohingyas have deep-rooted hatred towards Myanmar and Bangladesh as residents of both these countries were vindictive towards them.

Myanmar’s newly-appointed National Security Advisor (NSA) U Thanog Tun visited India in the first week of February and met Indian NSAAjit Doval and others. Ajit Doval, who visited Myanmar earlier and possesses deep knowledge about the security scenario of the region, emphatically told the visiting NSA that Rohingya Muslims are being radicalised and extremist forces are converting them into Jihadists which is very dangerous for Myanmar as well as for India.

Indian security personnel impressed upon the visiting delegation that Rohingyas should be treated in such a way that they do not become fanatic Jihadists as it may be a great danger to the region. 

Majority of about 1.2 million Rohingya Muslims are devoid of basic amenities, they have no employment and are tormented in Myanmar as well as in the country where they take refuge. Hence the young Rohingyas can easily be converted into Jihadists. In view of large population of displaced Rohingya, and constant efforts of various Islamic terrorist outfits, the possibility of Rohingyas becoming Jihadists cannot be ruled out and a small proportion of 1.2 million will be enough to create a major disaster in the region.  

Deputy Defence Chief of Myanmar Rear Admiral Myint Nwe stated on January 23 that the world must give some “time and space” to the present government so that it can sort out the problem of Rohingya Muslims. He further mentioned that the government is aware of the condition of Rakhine state. 

It is heartening to note that democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi has taken a few measures to mitigate the miseries of Rohingya Muslims. Her government promised the economic development of Rakhine State and also constituted the Central Committee for Implementation of Peace and Development in the area. The government also created an Advisory Commission on Rakhine State headed by former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan to look after the grievances of Rohingya Muslims. 

Besides Myanmar authorities, international organisations should also provide basic amenities to these displaced Rohingya Muslims so that the extremist Islamic organisations do not succeed in their nefarious motives. 

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst. Comments and suggestions on this article can be sent to editor@spsindia.in)

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Success Of Modi’s Act East Policy Depends On India – Myanmar Ties

 India must inculcate cordial relations with Myanmar

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 02 September 2016. It was External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj first and Hitin Kyaw President of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar next within a week, visiting each other’s country raised eyebrows and it seemed that both the nations were trying to forge close relations with each other ,  motivated by a desire to counter China’s growing influence as a regional leader.

For a country to be treated like a great power, it must act like a great power, and that requires a bit of throwing your weight around and India is learning this from China and US. It has understood that to be the big brother in the region it has to let the smaller nations know that it is big. And what better than helping in the growth of these countries like China does.

Concerns and tensions increased in India over China’s extensive military involvement in developing ports, naval and intelligence facilities and industries, specifically the upgrading of a naval base in Sittwe, a major seaport located close to the eastern Indian city of Kolkata. India’s engagement of the Burmese military junta has helped ease the regime’s international isolation and lessen Burma’s reliance on China. Both nations sought to cooperate to counteract drug trafficking and insurgent groups operating in the border areas. India and Myanmar are leading members of BIMSTEC and the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, along with Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand, helping India develop its influence and ties amongst Southeast Asian nations.

India was hesitant in reacting to the 2007 Burmese anti-government protests that had drawn overwhelming international condemnation. India also declared that it had no intention of interfering in Burma’s internal affairs and that the Burmese people would have to achieve democracy by themselves as it respects the sovereignty of Myanmar. This low-key response has been widely criticised both within India and abroad as weakening India’s credentials as a leading democratic nation. Indo-Burma relations went into a pleasant phase over Burmese steps towards democracy. As of 2013, India has provided loan to Myanmar for its development, about US$500 million. India and Myanmar are set to cooperate in matters military and India also aims to help modernize Myanmar’s military.

While Aung San Kyi the de facto ruler of Myanmar and a Nobel laureate paid a five days visit to China in August 2016, Sushma Swaraj reached Myanmar on August 22, just after Aung San Suu Kyi concluded her visit. It was the first high level visit by an Indian dignitary after the massive victory of National League for Democracy (NLD) in the elections held in November, 2015. Ajit Doval India’s all powerful National Security Advisor also visited Myanmar on June 16, as a special envoy of Prime Minister Modi.

And President of Myanmar and his high level delegation’s meeting with Prime Minister Modi and others recently, resulted into both sides agreeing to fight terrorism and deciding to maintain peace and tranquility at the borders and assured not to violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other country.

India and Myanmar share approximately 1700 K.Ms of borders and few terrorist outfits have terrorist camps inside Myanmar and take refuge there after carrying out terrorist activities in India. Myanmar leadership assured that it will not allow terrorist groups to use its territory for cross border terrorist activities in India. Sushma’s visit happened soon after Indian army foiled the attempt of terrorists of National Council of Nagaland-Khaplang group to enter India.

Both sides also decided that the vigil at the borders must be enhanced so that diverse insurgent outfits do not cross the border after carrying out terrorist activities in another country. It was also agreed that besides land borders Maritime Security Cooperation in the Bay of Bengal would also be enhanced.  Myanmar leadership welcomed India’s Act East Policy as it suits the country and areas of cooperation between both the countries should be identified and work should commence.

Both Myanmar President in India and Swaraj in Myanmar, discussed about cooperation in several fields including information technology, power, human resources and infrastructure development, health, education, transport, renewable energy and agriculture. India can import large quantity of pulses as Myanmar is surplus in pulses while India needs it urgently. Indian agriculturalists should help out their counterpart in Myanmar to improve the quality of pulses and its marketing in India.

Suu Kyi faces a challenge of restoration of democracy and minimizing the interference of the army. Army has amended the constitution in such a way that she cannot become the president and besides it, army has control over important ministerial portfolios like home, defence, border affairs etc. and 25 percent of parliamentary seats are also reserved for army.

China had close relationship with the military regime and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was the first foreign minister to visit Myanmar after civilian government took over. After the visit of Foreign Minister several other Chinese leaders also visited Myanmar. China welcomed and honoured Suu Kyi as Head of State in her latest visit.

The military junta of Myanmar also kept cordial relations with China as it was the primary source of supply of arms and ammunition and secondly they feared that China would instigate various terrorist outfits in the country to overthrow the government.

India has to be careful while chalking out its relations with Myanmar as China which has surplus funds may go a big way in the development of the country. Myanmar watchers feel that besides promise of economic development China would also assist new leadership in national reconciliation especially in Panglong conference where all armed groups met. China has decisive influence on at least 3 rebel armed outfits. Suu Kyi would have to give some concessions to China for all the promised assistance. It may include Myanmar’s silence on South China Sea issue, support economic corridor from Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM) etc.

Indian policy planners should not be worried unnecessarily that Suu Kyi visited Laos, and Cambodia (both are close to China) and China before visiting India but have to chalk out a long term strategic strategy so that India Myanmar relations are strengthened and China supported terrorist outfits may not able to utilize Myanmar territory for carrying out terrorist activities in India.

President Htin paid a fruitful visit and Suu Kyi would also be visiting soon and at that time strategists should try to clear the picture between India, Myanmar and China relationship. India and Myanmar have close relationship on social and religious grounds and Indian leadership must utilize it.

The public and military of Myanmar realized that China was exploiting the natural resources of the country without giving real compensation and that was the reason that military rulers became so annoyed with China that they suspended Myitsone dam project of China. In fact Chinese authorities requested Suu Kyi to resume the project.

Modi is pursuing a successful foreign policy with special attention to the neighbours hence India must strengthen its ties with Myanmar. India always supported democratic forces in the country but now when civilian government came into existence other countries are trying hard to cultivate closer relationship.

India should not compete with China as Myanmar and China shares a border of more than 2000 KMs and Chinese were supplying arms and ammunition to military rulers. The military is still powerful in the country hence India should not underestimate it.

India should assist in oil and gas projects and must exploit spirituality and Buddhist religion not only in Myanmar but in China too. India should develop Buddhist pilgrimage places so that more and more people from Myanmar and China visit the Buddhist sites which will strengthen the ties as well as generate employment in the country.

Indian oil giants like Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum should also export gasoline to Myanmar as this oil rich nation has no refinery so far. Indian oil companies should also invest in oil and gas sectors including offshore drilling as Myanmar has abundance of oil and gas reserves.

Indian companies should participate in the competitive tender for marketing of petrochemical and petroleum products as well as in establishment of LPG terminals. China is establishing an oil refinery at Davei with a cost of USD 3 billion where about 100000 barrels of oil would be processed.

Myanmar has more than 2.9 million persons of Indian origin therefore India should open Trade and Cultural Centers in the country which will be useful to inculcate cordial relation between both the countries.

India should train more personnel of Myanmar armed forces in professional and technical courses especially in jungle warfare and curbing the terrorist activities in border areas, as it will be beneficial to both the countries.  India should also provide training to Myanmar defence personnel in repair and maintenance of equipment of Russian origin.

Myanmar is a link between India and Southeast Asia hence it is essential for the success of Modi’s Act East Policy to have cordial relations between India and Myanmar. Indian businessmen should also invest in Myanmar which is rich in natural resources but poor otherwise. According to a report 70 percent of its population is without electricity.

India and Myanmar have agreed to a 4-lane, 3200 km triangular highway connecting India, Myanmar and Thailand. The route, which is expected to be completed by sometime during 2016, will run from India’s northeastern states into Myanmar, where over 1,600 km of roads will be built or improved. The route begins from Guwahati in India and connects to Mandalay in Myanmar, route continues to Yangon in Myanmar and then to Mae Sot in Thailand, which then continues to Bangkok.

The first phase connecting Guwahati to Mandalay is set to complete by 2016. This will eventually be extended to Cambodia and Vietnam under Mekong-Ganga Cooperation within the wider framework of Asian Highway Network. This is aimed at creating a new economic zone ranging from Kolkata on the Bay of Bengal to Ho Chi Minh City on the South China Sea.

India should also assist Suu Kyi in restoration of full-fledged democracy in the country.  In recent times about 20 Parliamentarians of Myanmar were trained by Bureau of Parliamentary Studies and Training at New Delhi. Both India and Myanmar would gain by strengthening cordial relations.

Indo-Myanmar relations are very important for Prime Minister Modi’s Act East Policy and over the past two decades, relations between India and Myanmar have improved vastly, with a number of high-level political visits. India needs to nurture this relationship by increasing economic and security engagement with Myanmar without acting the big-brother.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

Note : Article was republished in Center for Asia Studies