Pakistan

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Closeness Between Pakistan and Myanmar Under Chinese Guidance May be Harmful to India

China is assisting Pakistan to strengthen defence ties with Myanmar. Beijing wants to fulfil its agenda through its proxy because there is an intense anti-China sentiment among the people in Myanmar. Pakistan is delighted because Myanmar shares a border with India through which Pakistan can infiltrate terrorists and supply weapons to the insurgent groups in the North Eastern States. India needs to be cautious

By Jai Kumar Verma

December 10, 2022AdminForeign Affairs

The military ties between the Pakistan army and Myanmar military junta are increasing rapidly. China, which considers India as its prospective challenger, is assisting Pakistan to strengthen defence cooperation with Myanmar. Pakistan, which considers India as its enemy, is delighted to strengthen its defence ties with the military junta of Myanmar as it feels that it has cultivated one more friend in the region. Not only this Pakistan, which has waged a low-intensity war against India, is also eager to inculcate friendship with the countries, which share borders with India. Myanmar shares a land border of about 1600 km with India, besides it, both countries also have a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. India’s four North Eastern States namely Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram share international borders with Myanmar. As both countries have strong religious, linguistic, and ethnic ties hence there is heavy traffic between both countries. The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan would try to exploit the traffic. There are reports that ISI was funding, training, and supplying arms and ammunition to the insurgent groups of North Eastern States. Not only this, ISI was also sending weapons and infiltrating terrorists through these borders.

A Pakistani defence delegation secretly visited the Myanmar defence industry complex near Yangon in October and extended assistance in the maintenance of aircraft. Myanmar is using JF-17 jets, manufactured in China and assembled in Pakistan. These planes were purchased from Pakistan

In October 2022, a high-level defence delegation from Pakistan visited the Myanmar defence industry complex near Yangon secretly. During the visit, the Pakistani delegation proposed that Pakistan can extend assistance to the Myanmar army in the repair and maintenance of aircraft. The visit of the Pakistani defence delegation was at the behest of China as Myanmar is using JF-17 jets, which are manufactured in China’s Chengdu Aerospace Cooperation and assembled in Pakistan Aeronautical Complex although Islamabad claims that JF-17 was developed by both countries. These planes were purchased from Pakistan. JF-17 has the capability of ground attack as well as combat in the air. It can deliver bombs as well as precision-guided munition such as smart bombs, smart munition and smart weapons. These fighter planes suit Myanmar’s military regime as they have to suppress indigenous dissension and agitations.

The visit of the defence delegation is significant because, after the withdrawal of the US-led NATO troops from Afghanistan, China is trying to enhance its influence in various countries, especially in neighbouring countries, directly or through its proxies.

Pakistan’s police are also training Myanmar police officers in mine disposal in Karachi. Eight officers of the Myanmar police were trained during September 10-30 in Karachi in explosives and mine disposal techniques.

A high-level defence delegation from Pakistan also visited Myanmar in the first week of September 2021. The visit of the delegation, headed by a brigadier, was not announced. The Pakistani delegation reached Myanmar on September 1 and left the country on September 5 in 2021. During the visit, officers of both countries discussed the exchange of advanced ordnance technology, aircraft repair and maintenance and naval munitions. According to reports, now both countries are in the final stages of discussion about the building of third-generation aircraft under licence.

 After the withdrawal of the US-led NATO troops from Afghanistan, China is trying to enhance its influence in various countries, especially in neighbouring countries, directly or through its proxies

The relations between Pakistan and Myanmar became tense when Myanmar evicted Rohingya Muslims forcibly. There are reports that in 2018 Myanmar embassy in Pakistan spent a huge sum to provide security to the embassy and its staff as there were reports that Islamic extremists would be targeting Myanmar embassy personnel due to atrocities committed on Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar. At that time, there were demonstrations and protests in several cities of Pakistan against the Myanmar government. Not only this, there were reports that ISI imparted weapon training to Rohingya Muslims residing in Cox Bazar, Bangladesh. However, China which wants to develop its influence in the world, especially in neighbouring countries, pressed both countries to have cordial relations.

Min Aung Hlaing, a senior army general, also visited Pakistan Aeronautical Complex in Kamra in 2015. Now Islamabad also wants to inculcate friendly relations with Myanmar as Pakistan can export arms and ammunition to Myanmar, which is facing several sanctions from the democratic world.

China’s Special Envoy Sun Guoxiang also visited Myanmar and met with senior military officials including General Min Aung Hlaing. China and Pakistan both want to develop close relations with military rulers as both these countries feel that the military would continue ruling the country and democratic government would not come soon in Myanmar. Hence Pakistan would enhance its defence ties with the military rulers of Myanmar.

There is an intense anti-China feeling among the masses in Myanmar hence Beijing wants that Islamabad imparts training to Myanmar armed personnel. As Pakistan has also a large number of Chinese weapons and platforms it can assist Myanmar in its maintenance, training, and sale of spare parts. China is using Pakistan not only for arms export but also wants to export other materials, which it is finding difficult to export due to massive anti-China sentiments among the masses. Chinese state-owned companies illicitly occupied the land of the farmers at the time of the implementation of FDI in oil and gas projects in Myanmar. The oil and gas pipeline ran between Kyauk Phyu in Rakhine state to Nam Kham, a town near China border. The Myanmar masses feel that China is a supporter of military rulers hence the public has attacked and destroyed the Chinese properties in Myanmar.

Pakistan’s police are training Myanmar police officers in mine disposal in Karachi. Eight officers of the Myanmar police were trained during September 10-30 in Karachi in explosives and mine disposal techniques

China also does not want to export armaments to Myanmar as it does not want to show that it is supporting the military rulers who would be using these arms to suppress the democratic forces. It would damage its international image.

There are reports that the Myanmar military is planning to purchase 60- and 81-mm mortars, heavy machine guns and M-79 grenade launchers, and would also acquire air-to-surface missiles from Pakistan.

The report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) mentioned that China’s share of arms export in the world market has dwindled from 5.5 to 5.2 per cent but the reality is that now China is exporting arms through its proxy Pakistan. In 2020, Indian customs officials on the basis of intelligence detained a ship, which was coming from Jiangyin Port in China and was going to Karachi. The ship was carrying an autoclave, which can be used to launch ballistic missiles.

The analysts claim that Pakistan at the behest of China is focusing beyond the export of military hardware to Myanmar, which is ruled by the military junta. The ISI also wants to use ports built by China in Myanmar and it wants to infiltrate Islamic terrorists through Myanmar as Indian security forces have tightened the security on Indo-Pakistan borders. Pakistan is getting assistance from Aye Ne Win who is the grandson of General Ne Win and is close to ISI and Myanmar army rulers. The construction of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which links China with Myanmar, is going on with good speed. Chinese can use the land route as well as the sea route through the naval base Sittwe against India.

There are reports that the Myanmar military is planning to purchase 60- and 81-mm mortars, heavy machine guns and M-79 grenade launchers, and would also acquire air-to-surface missiles from Pakistan

Although China considers the USA its enemy number one, it also knows that India is its opponent in the region. It wants to encircle India through its neighbours and hence it is rendering all types of assistance including military hardware to Myanmar. Beijing is exploiting its natural resources as well as its strategic location.

At present, the world is involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, and China taking advantage of it, is assisting the military rulers of Myanmar sometimes directly but most of the time through its proxy i.e., Pakistan. However, anti-China sentiments are increasing in Myanmar and once a democratic regime is established in the country people may boycott not only China but Pakistan too.

However, India should be cautious as ISI would use Myanmar for infiltrating terrorists and supplying arms and ammunition to terrorist outfits operating in India. Delhi is able to control several secessionist groups operating in the North Eastern States. ISI would certainly try to support them so that law and order deteriorate in these states. China, which is developing ports and other infrastructure in Myanmar, may also use them against India if needed. At present, Indian security planners are worried because of the nexus between China and Pakistan, the situation would be more dangerous if Myanmar also joins China and Pakistan against India.

-The writer is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s.

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Tale of two Ts – Technology & Terrorism: India & Pakistan at 75

·    Born together, grew up independently & growing old individually

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 13 August 2022. It is a story of a painful birth of two nations which began 75 years ago, who grew up in animosity, remain not-so-friendly neighbours but one sees a growth trajectory with a technological climb and the other a growth trajectory in the reign of terror. Lets see how India and it’s western neighbour Pakistan, which got freedom at the same time have fared since then.

As Pakistan was created on the basis of failed two nation theory it became Islamic Republic of Pakistan while India became a secular democratic country. Although Pakistan started with democracy but there were several successful as well as failed military coups in the country. The coups were successful in 1958, 1977, and 1999. Besides these successful coups there were unsuccessful coup attempts in 1951, 1980 and 1995. These failed coup attempts came to limelight while few remained unreported.

Pakistan army projected itself as the protector of the country from external aggression especially India. Even when there was civilian rule, the army controlled domestic as well as foreign policies. In this way army has not allowed to strengthen democratic institutions in Pakistan. There is a saying that all the countries have armies but Pakistan army has a country. On the other hand, India remained a democratic country and worked under a secular constitution and independent judiciary. Pakistan which is smaller than India is already disintegrated once in 1971 when a new country Bangladesh was carved out.

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The creation of Bangladesh has strengthened several other secessionist movements in the country including Balochistan, Sindh and Balawaristan (Gilgit and Baltistan). Pashtuns also demand for a greater Pakhtoonistan which would include areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Residents of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir also want to disaffiliate from Pakistan. Muhajirs who migrated from India also claim for a separate province but want to secede. The residents of Saraikistan in Punjab province demand a separate state as they claim that the progress of South Punjab is neglected. Apart from these secessionist movements bloody war is going on between Sunnis and Shias. Both of them have constituted separate extremist outfits and attacking each other’s mosques and the religious places. All nationalities in Pakistan claim that Punjabis are harassing and exploiting them and also utilising all the resources of the country. On the other hand, India has no secessionist movement however the lackeys of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) are trying to create religious divide in India but is getting very little success in their nefarious designs.

Both countries have adopted two different economic routes. Pakistan’s economic growth was better than India up to 1980 but after that India’s economic growth was much faster than Pakistan. At present India’s trillion-dollar economy is not only the fastest growing economy, it is fifth in the world while Pakistan stands 45^th in the list. India’s economy is 10 times stronger than of Pakistan. In 2020 India’s GDP was $2709 billion while Pakistan’s GDP was $263 billion only. Although India has a much bigger population but in 2020 India’s per capita income was 1.56 times higher than Pakistan’s on exchange rate basis. The ease of doing business which is very important for getting foreign investment, India’s world ranking was 63 while Pakistan was at 108 place.

Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves are dwindling very fast while inflation is rising. The economic situation of the country is worsening and it may collapse like Sri Lanka’s economy. In June Pakistan’s foreign reserve was fallen to $ 8.24 billion. The State Bank of Pakistan suggested the ban on the import of all non-essential items. But the import of Petroleum products is the biggest challenge. The cost of living especially of essential commodities skyrocketed. At present one US dollar is equal to 221 Pakistani rupee. In March 2022 Public debt of Pakistan was $248.7 billion which was 80.2 percent of gross domestic product. The analysts claim that Pakistan may default on loan if IMF does not give loan. Even if IMF gives loan the respite would be only for some time.

Delhi’s external debt is $570 billion in March 2021 which is only 21.1 percent of GDP. India’s services sector is not only strong but is fastest growing. India’s service sector is about 60% and provides employment to 28%. India is manufacturing several items indigenously under Make in India programme. India is also trying hard to export defence items and few countries have already showed interest, while Pakistan only purchases defence items mainly from China.

Even though Pakistan became an independent country in 1947 but its animosity towards India never ended. Islamabad always felt insecure because of size of India; hence it took several decisions which were against the interests of the country. Pakistan has an army of 560,000 active soldiers and besides that there are Army reserve and National Guard. Pakistan’s defence budget is Rs.1,523 billion which is an increase of 11 percent on previous budget. It is much more than Pakistan’s capability and in proportion to its GDP. Islamabad is spending so much on defence just to compete with India.

Rawalpindi has waged a low intensity war against India and using terrorism as a strategy. However, in the process of sending terrorists in India few terrorist outfits are involved in several terrorist acts in Pakistan. As it is sponsoring terrorism, Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has put the country in Grey List and possibility that it slides to Black List cannot be ruled out.

Same way Pakistan is involved in drug smuggling to India but it generated large number of drug addicts in the country. According to a report Pakistan has 8.9 million drug users and the number is increasing rapidly.

Pakistan’s fear about India is based on phony assumptions. India is a peaceful country and Indian history is a testimony of the fact that we never attacked any other country. India is also facing multiple problems and would not enhance by attacking any other country. In fact, Pakistan became friendly to China just to counter India but China being an expansionist country would certainly annex few areas of Pakistan.

India did three nuclear explosions on 11 May 1998 but Pakistan with its meagre economic resources did six nuclear blasts same month. The west-imposed sanctions and also suspended assistance which damaged the economy of both the countries but damage to Pakistan was much more as its dependence on foreign assistance is much more than India.

Rawalpindi has given false hopes to its countrymen that Kashmir would be merged in Pakistan as it is a Muslim majority state. ISI is spending large sum on clandestine operations without much success. There can be peace if Pakistan stops spreading terrorism in India. In case of peace both countries can do business, which would be beneficial for India as well as for Pakistan.

Pakistan should stop comparing India and should understand that it has no danger from Delhi hence it should curtail its military expenditure, should stop assisting terrorists and should make efforts to solve water shortage, provide medical care to its countrymen. The country should launch poverty alleviation programmes, population explosion should be controlled, mounting illiteracy and extremism is also dangerous. Pakistan’s economy is on ventilator while political system is not working. No country can progress without skill development. Both India and Pakistan should take lessons from history. Germany, France, United Kingdom fought bitter battles but now they are friends. India and Pakistan can also be friends provided Islamabad stops low intensity war against India and devote its time and energy in the progress of the country. India is progressing very fast and wants that Pakistan as well as its other neighbours also progress.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 

Will Pakistan surrender Gilgit-Baltistan to China in lieu of mounting debt? - ADU https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/will-pakistan-surrender-gilgit-baltistan-to-china-in-lieu-of-mounting-debt/#.Yu67xZNatH0.whatsapp

Will Pakistan surrender Gilgit-Baltistan to China in lieu of mounting debt?

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 07 August 2022. Chairman of Karakoram National Movement, Mumtaz Nagri stated in an interview to a newspaper that Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) which is part of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir is an isolated and neglected area. He claims that Pakistan may lease out GB to China as Islamabad would fail to repay the Chinses loan. He also demanded that residents of GB should not be afraid of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and be prepared to go to jail.

At present Pakistan’s economy is on ventilator and according to reports as of March 2022 Pakistan’s public debt was USD 248.7 billion which is 80.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The domestic debt was Rupees 28 trillion while external debt was $ 86.4 billion. Pakistan’s foreign reserve is dwindled to $ nine billion, it wants to take loan from International Monetary Fund (IMF) and recently IMF has signed preliminary agreement with Islamabad to revive $ six billion bailout package. But IMF loan comes with stringent conditions, IMF stipulations include that Pakistan should share terms and conditions of Chinese loan taken for completion of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and IMF money cannot be used in Chinese projects. IMF loan cannot be used in repaying Chinese debt. It would be difficult for Pakistan to adhere to these stipulations.

Nonetheless Beijing is Islamabad’s biggest bilateral creditor. Chinese government outstanding loan is $14.5 billion besides this loan Pakistan has also taken loan from government owned Chinese banks as well as from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Although it is difficult to mention all the Chinese loan but the analysts claim that Chinese debt is about $24 billion which is about 30 percent of total Pakistani external debt.

The residents of GB claim that Pakistan has no resources to repay the debt hence it would lease out GB to China. Beijing would utilise GB as it wants to expand itself in South Asia. Not only this China is the largest importer of agricultural products, would utlise arable land, natural resources, and vast water resources of GB. China needs clean water from glaciers for manufacturing semiconductors. Semiconductors are used in mobile phones, cars, fighter jets, ships etc. China wants to control Shaksgam valley which has more than 240 glaciers. GB has second highest peak i.e. K-2 and has ancient Buddhist sculptures.

Gilgit, Skardu, Diamer, Astore, Ghanche, Ghizer and Hunza-Nagar consist of GB. The total area of GB is around 72,496 KMs which is more than five times of present POK. Under Karachi Agreement of April 1949 Pak government forcibly got the control of GB and split them from POK. It also gifted Sakshgam Valley (5,180 Sq. KMs) to China in 1963. Pakistan with ulterior motive, projects GB as a separate region and not as a part of POK.

In 1974 Pakistan abolished state subject rule in GB so that Sunni Muslims from Pakistan can settle there. According to a report originally the ratio was of 1:4 but in 2019 the ratio was changed to 3:4. Originally the Shia population was 68 percent now it is 41 percent only. Sunni terrorist groups like Sipah-i-Sahaba, Harkat-ul-Mujahiddin, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jaish-e-Mohammad have established terrorist camps in GB and are killing Shias.

China also wants that more Punjabis and Sunni Muslims should settle in this area, so that they get more support for the CPEC. China is also insisting that GB should be given a status of an independent province. Pakistan has already given agricultural land to Chinese companies so that they can build infrastructure projects. Hundreds of Chinese are living in GB and are exploiting the natural resources of the area under the garb of developing infrastructure. China intends to develop Gawadar, Jiwani, Sonmiani, Pasni and Ormara ports so that it can increase its influence in Indian Ocean.

Legally GB is part of Jammu & Kashmir hence it is part of India and Pakistan has no right to lease it to China or any other country. In case Islamabad gives GB to China on lease, Government of India has the right to challenge this decision in the International Court of Justice.

Besides it Islamabad has to face stiff resistance from United States and it would become difficult for Pakistan to get loan from IMF or World Bank. The residents of GB would also resist Chinese occupation although at present the federal government had given very less rights to them. The local population is against CPEC because it feels that China is exploiting their mineral resources and CPEC related projects are not generating employment to locals.

The population of GB is fast dwindling because there is no job, scarcity of everything including food items, electricity only for limited time and primitive living conditions. Hence the residents are migrating to other areas within or outside the country. The suicide rate in GB is highest in Pakistan.

United States is also keeping eye on GB as last time when it withdrew from Afghanistan, 9/11 occurred hence this time although US withdrew from Afghanistan but it is still keeping an eye on it. Hence GB can be useful for US also.

Pakistan wants to incorporate GB in the federal system and declare it as the fifth province. Previously it was known as Northern areas and only in 2009 it was allowed to constitute its assembly but it is governed from Islamabad and has no power to take decisions.

China wants to control GB and its dry port Sost, which is a last town inside Pakistan on Karakoram Highway before Chinese border. It is important because all traffic crossing Pakistan China border has to pass through this town.

The rising insurgency in Balochistan has restricted progress of CPEC. Now China on one hand is assisting Pakistani forces in curbing Balochistan uprising and on the other hand forcing Pakistan government, so that the work on CPEC continue in GB. China is also pressing Islamabad to declare GB as fifth province, so that it can be controlled better. However, there were large scale protests in GB and all opposition political parties not only supported the protests but became part of it.

Islamabad is issuing mining licenses to non-residents which is resented by the locals of GB. The issue of licenses to non-locals have increased the loot of natural resources of GB especially by Chinese companies.

Nawaz Khan Naji founder of the Balwaristan National Front (BNF) also stated that “Pakistan occupied our land in 1947 and since then no development has been done here”. He also claimed that elections are farce. Pakistan security forces use draconian anti-terror laws to ruthlessly suppress the peaceful protests and demonstrations.

The residents also claim that making GB as fifth province would not bring any progress in the region as Balochistan which is one province of Pakistan is underdeveloped with highest illiteracy rate. The people of GB also claim that their counter parts residing in India are leading much better lives and enjoying the freedom and equality under Indian constitution.

India, USA, and other countries should remain vigilant so that Pakistan does not lease out GB to China as it would be dangerous not only for India but for the free world. However, it does not mean that the world waive Pakistan’s loan or render more financial assistance.  Islamabad is surviving on foreign assistance and also utilising it for increasing terrorist activities all over the world especially against India. The IMF should give loan with stringent stipulations and Islamabad must fulfil the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) conditions. Pakistan watchers point out that country’s economy is ruined but the political leaders, senior army officers have no dearth of money. The fundamentalism and extremism have derelict the country.

China which considers India as its potential adversary has exploited the brutish desire of Islamabad to destroy India. Beijing assisted Islamabad which has waged a low intensity war against India and in the process, Pakistan devastated itself. The democratic as well as Muslim world must press Pakistan to abandon terrorism and the time, money and energy consumed in spreading terrorism in other countries especially in India should be utilised in the development of the country.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 

 

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Home » Spotlight » Pakistan usurped Kartarpur Sahib land Deceptively

Pakistan Usurped Kartarpur Sahib Land Deceptively

By J K Verma

Gurudwara Kartarpur Sahib
Pic Courtesy : SikhWiki

New Delhi. 18 March 2019. Pakistan’s doublespeak was fully exposed during the first meeting, held at Attari on 14^th March 2019, between Indian and Pakistani delegations concerning the construction of Kartarpur Sahib Corridor. The meeting was held to settle the process of the building of Kartarpur Sahib Corridor which will link Dera Baba Nanak shrine in Gurdaspur in India to the Sikh Shrine in Kartarpur Pakistan. The Indian delegation forcefully protested against the widespread “encroachment” of the Gurudwara land on the name of construction of a corridor for the benefit of pilgrims.

The Indian officer who was the part of delegation mentioned that Pakistan wanted to earn the goodwill through empty and false promises. Indian delegation strongly demanded about the restoration of all the illegally occupied land of the Gurdwara as the sentiments of whole of India are hurt by this illegal seizure of the religious land.  The land was donated to Gurudwara by devotees including Maharaja Ranjeet Singh and Pakistan government has no right to usurp it.

At the time of finalising the terms and conditions of the Kartarpur corridor the ulterior motive of Pakistan was totally unmasked. Islamabad wanted the agreement just for two years while India stressed that the contract must be for a much longer period as India would spend about Rs.190 crores in providing long-lasting and wide-ranging facilities to the pilgrims. The members of Indian delegation revealed that there were vast differences between the promises made by Imran Khan and what Pakistan delegation offered in the first meeting. Pakistan promised a visa-free entry, however now it imposed the need of special permit and also put a fees. Pakistan authorities introduced the requirement of special permit through back-door and in this way killed the basic spirit of the dedicated corridor. 

Dera Baba Nanak
Pic Courtesy : Sikhi Wiki

 The analysts mention that the clause of special permit was put so that the visa officers who are from Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) can establish contact with the pilgrims. The special permits and use of corridor are restricted to Indian passport holders while the holders of Overseas Citizens of India (OCI), who are persons of Indian origin, were omitted from this scheme. Guru Nanak Dev was the founder of Sikhism and stayed in Kartarpur for about 18 years until his death in 1539. The gurudwara was constructed at the place where Guru Nanak Dev took his last breath. The founder of Sikhism has an universal appeal hence prohibition of OCI from granting of Special permit is unwarranted and discriminatory. 

Indian authorities are making sincere efforts so that the journey of Indian pilgrims to Kartarpur Gurudwara is smooth and relaxed, however now it is apparent that Pakistan wants to put rigid and stringent conditions so that they control the visit of the pilgrims. India will be constructing a beautiful passenger terminal which will accommodate 5,000 pilgrims daily and about 15,000 pilgrims on Vaisakhi and other religious festivals, while Pakistan wants to restrict the number to 700 only. India also proposed that pilgrims can visit on foot as it is an important part of pilgrimage. India also proposed that the pilgrims can visit individually and from dawn to dusk, all days and throughout the year but Islamabad wanted to fix the days for the visits. Pakistan also refused to accept these basic conditions and Islamabad contended that pilgrims should move in groups of 15 and only through vehicles. Pakistan government and press gave wide publicity to the opening of Kartarpur Corridor but in the first meeting the bluff and deception was exposed.

In 1974 when Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed by India and Pakistan, India insisted for the inclusion of Kartarpur in the list of shrines where the pilgrims can visit but Pakistan refused to include Kartarpur. In the MOU, 15 shrines in Pakistan and seven shrines in India were included where the pilgrims of each other’s country can visit.  in 1999 Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee demanded for a visa-free access at Kartarpur while another Prime Minister Dr. Man Mohan Singh requested for a corridor in 2004. In both these occasions Pakistan refused to accept these proposals.

Kartarpur Gurudwara is in Narowal district of Pakistan and is about four kilometres from the international borders. On 26^thNovember 2018 Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu and Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh laid down the foundation stone of Kartarpur Corridor at Gurdaspur while Imran Khan laid the foundation stone after two days at Narowal. 550^th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev is falling in November 2019 and Indian authorities are trying that Kartarpur corridor starts on or before the birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev.

The technical experts of both the countries will meet on March 19 at zero line to finalise the alignment of the corridor from India and Pakistan. The delegations will meet again on 2^nd April at Wagah inside Pakistan.    

As Pakistan’s game plan was unearthed in the first meeting and Indian delegation took a stringent stand on the usurpation of sacred land of Kartarpur sahib Gurudwara, Pakistan government retorted that India has no locus-standi and it cannot object. Pakistan government also claimed that as a sovereign country it has right to utilise the land within the country and India has no right to object or give instructions. Pakistan also made it clear that in its 1992 proposal it made it clear that the facility of special permit will be restricted to Indian citizens only.

Pakistan side became offensive when its dilatory tactics were exposed. Islamabad alleged that purposeful leaks were made by the delegation to defame the country. Islamabad further alleged that Indian side is adhering to these focused leaks due to the forthcoming elections.

Nonetheless the attitude of Pakistani delegation, the usurpation of holy land of Kartarpur Gurudwara, putting the stipulations of permit and fee clearly indicates the hogwash of Pakistan especially of Imran Khan. The apologists of Pakistan should also reconsider their viewpoint, as Imran Khan’s peace initiative was with malicious intention of creating a hype that Islamabad wants to have cordial relations with India but in reality, it was a hoax. Pakistan’s false promises have aroused the feelings of whole of India especially of Sikh community, but its retracing of steps would certainly dampen their sentiments.

There are confirmed reports that the sinister ISI is instigating foreign pro-Khalistan Sikhs to revive Khalistan issue. ISI also helped The Sikh for Justice (SFJ) which organised “London Declaration on Referendum 2020 for Sikhs” on August 12. According to intelligence reports Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, is a New York based pro-Khalistan Sikh, has close relations with ISI officials. Sometime back SFJ put pro-Khalistan posters in Punjab and the Punjab government has already initiated legal action against it. SFJ also announced that during the month of November 2019 the outfit would organise a referendum in Kartarpur to ascertain how many Sikhs wants an independent Khalistan. Intelligence agencies as well as Indian High Commission in Islamabad should be vigilant that SFJ does not mislead the Sikhs.

Indian security agencies should also be careful as Pakistan has already waged a low intensity war against India and assisting diverse terrorist outfits which are carrying out terrorist activities in whole of country especially in the Kashmir valley. Pakistan wants to show to the world community that it wants to have peace with India while it also desires to please Sikhs of all over the world by opening Kartarpur corridor. Indian intelligence agencies should also be careful that Pakistan does not utilise the opening of Kartarpur corridor to escalate pro-Khalistan sentiments. In past ISI used visit of Indian and foreign Sikhs in Pakistan for Khalistani propaganda and even beating of Indian diplomats who were on duty.     

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

Thursday, 14 March 2019

·         

Peace still non-negotiable

Thursday, 14 March 2019 | Jai Kumar Verma

    

India must continue isolating Pakistan so that it cannot wriggle out from the clutches of FATF. We must force a change in its policy of assisting terrorist outfits

In a significant speech early this year, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan talked about inculcating peace and enhancing trade with India. He also claimed that if India took one step forward, Pakistan would take two. However, in the same speech he mentioned that peace would be feasible only after the Kashmir issue was solved. This linking of the Kashmir issue with peace talks has exposed his double standards. And like Kargil after former Prime Minister Vajpayee’s visit and Pathankot after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit, Pakistan-trained terrorists carried out an attack at Pulwama and hurled a powerful grenade at a Jammu bus stand on March 7. Again, on February 24 to be precise, he requested his counterpart Modi to “give peace a chance” and proclaimed that he would take immediate action if India provided “actionable intelligence” on the Pulwama attack of February 14 in which 40 Indian soldiers were martyred. Islamabad also approached the United Nations to “defuse tension” between India and Pakistan.

India handed over a dossier with evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in the terrorist act in Pulwama. Islamabad took some token action against terrorist outfits it hosted to neutralise world opinion and on March 8, Khan reiterated that no terror group would be permitted to carry out activities in other countries from Pakistan. Nonetheless, Islamabad is not trustworthy as in the past it has launched several cleansing operations with fancy names like Operation Al-Mizan, Rah-e-Haq, Sher-e-Dil, Zalzala, Koh-e-Sufaid and at present Operation Zarb-e-Azbwith no discernible dip in terrorism. In fact, it has allowed blacklisted terror groups to scatter, lie low, regroup and re-emerge with new identities. The Pakistani military establishment, which endorses such groups as they lend it a strategic heft, has even categorised them as “good” and “bad” terrorists. So outfits which carry out terrorist attacks in India and Afghanistan under the instructions of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) are considered “good” terrorists and given full protection and assistance. Action is taken only against those terrorist outfits that disobey the ISI, have no use for it or have dared to carry out attacks in Pakistan.

Observers claim that such clampdowns are superficial and taken because of utmost pressure from the international community and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which monitors terror funding and disqualifies errant countries from receiving recuperative aid and loans from world bodies. Pakistan is passing through a grave economic crisis; its foreign reserve is at its lowest ebb and it has requested the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout package. The FATF has given Pakistan more than 15 conditions to comply with, including smashing the jihadi factory, by May or else risk getting blacklisted. In that case, neither the IMF or World Bank can sanction a bailout package.

The Pakistani Army-controlled ISI has created a big infrastructure to support diverse terrorist outfits and carry out proxy wars in India and Afghanistan as they are an important part of Islamabad’s foreign policy. Hence it will be imprudent to assume that Pakistan will shun the path of terrorism so easily.

A strong lobby in India emphasises that both India and Pakistan should try to sort out differences through peaceful negotiations. The activists also mention that war is not a solution. However, they forget that Pakistan was created on the basis of the failed two-nation theory and both the countries have already fought three major wars, excluding an undeclared war at Kargil. Besides these wars, there are numerous skirmishes and limited military conflicts between both the countries. These hostilities have created a lot of suspicion and animosity in the ruling elite as well as in people. Pakistan doesn’t believe in giving up the fight, bleeding India with several cuts rather than striking a mammoth blow.

In the past, several attempts were made for restoring peace, especially at the Shimla, Agra and Lahore summits. Few confidence-building measures like border trade, the Delhi-Lahore Bus service and Friendship Express (Samjhauta Express) were also tried but all efforts miserably failed as ISI-sponsored terrorism continued unabashedly. India has always yielded ground,  having  already surrendered vast areas of Kashmir in 1947-48 and returning the  Haji Pir Pass in 1966. The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 is disproportionately in favour of Pakistan. Delhi had given more such concessions in the past but Islamabad never reciprocated or mitigated its hostility. It always took our kindness as our weakness; hence, we must understand that there can be no friendship with Pakistan.

The terrorist organisations, besides ISI, also have a strong public support in Pakistan, claiming legitimacy through social and charitable institutions. Ousted President Pervez Musharraf mentioned in an interview that the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) tried to assassinate him twice but he could not take action against it as the ISI was using the organisation for anti-India activities. In his recent remarks, he even implied that the Pakistani Army was fully seized of the Pulwama attack. If the Jaish can attempt an assassination of the ruling President, who in turn could not take punitive action despite full knowledge of the plot, then it speaks volumes about the ISI’s stranglehold on the region as a whole.

The pacifists also point out that geographically Pakistan is a neighbour and as its location cannot be altered, India should try to inculcate friendship. However, they overlook that Islamabad is diabolically against India and wants to split the country by abetting terrorist outfits in Kashmir and assisting secessionist elements of Khalistan.

India must respond to Pakistan with firmness and determination and should not become a victim of its bullying and blackmailing strategies. Worse, it uses conventions and agreements to suit its own narrative. So while Khan does not talk about the Shimla Agreement, he talks about the defunct UN resolution. Pakistan has conveniently forgotten the Shimla Agreement as it clearly mentions that both sides would not use force on the LoC while Pakistan has been regularly infiltrating terrorists and using fire power there.

Pakistan has already surrendered some areas of Kashmir to Beijing for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that passes through Gilgit, Baltistan and PoK. Given China’s territorial imperialism, this has added a complex layer to the imbroglio. Peaceniks also allege that India does not treat Pakistan equally. However, the contention doesn’t hold as India has signed several agreements with Pakistan as equals. It has never interfered in the internal affairs of its neighbours through covert ops while Pakistan is constantly needling India.

The pro-dialogue lobby must comprehend that Pakistan has an obsession with claiming parity with India without realising differences in size, governance and other markers. When India signed a nuclear deal with US, Pakistan also tried its best to sign the treaty. Islamabad, without considering past records, raised objections to India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). It is also obstructing India’s permanent membership in the UN Security Council. There are several other fields where Islamabad is trying to maintain uniformity with India. Pakistan watchers claim that the country’s economic condition has deteriorated because of excessive expenditure on defence forces.

The all-powerful Pakistan Army has over time given false hope to the masses that funding covert operations was worth it as they would help it snatch the whole of Kashmir from India and merge it with Pakistan. Hence there can be no negotiations with Pakistan on Kashmir. Khan’s offer of peace talks are simply to curry favour with the FATF, IMF and world community. Second,  Indian security forces have killed top terrorist leaders under Operation All Out and successfully eliminated a large number of their support agents under Operation Cordon and Search. The infiltration of Pakistani hardcore terrorists is under control due to strict vigil at the borders. At present ISI wants to have peace for some time so that the terrorist outfits can be strengthened.

The arguments for enhancing people to people contacts, trade and cultural exchange have been already tried  with no result. Now India must adopt a stern approach towards its western neighbour and after the pre-emptive, non-military airstrikes at Balakot, be  ready to take retributive action should another terrorist hit happen on our side.  India should continue isolating Pakistan so that it cannot wriggle out from the clutches of FATF without making considerable changes in its policy of assisting terrorist outfits.

(The writer is member, United Services Institute of India, and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)

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STUDIES iN iNTERNATIONAL sTRATEGIC iSSUES

 

FORUM FOR STRATEGIC & SECURITY STUDIES 

China–Pakistan Relations: CPEC May Be A Debt-Trap

BY

J.K.Verma

Sino-Pakistan relationship, which started because of animosity towards India, soon developed in diverse fields. China full-filled, 70 percent of Pakistan weapons need. Besides weapons, China also provided technology, designs, material, equipment and knowhow to produce missiles, and in 1990 Beijing sold more than thirty M-11 missiles which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Pakistan manufactured missiles based on Chinese designs at National Defence Complex facilities in the Kala Chitta Dhar mountain range near Islamabad. Pakistan constructed Khushab reactor, with Chinese assistance, which plays a vital role in the production of plutonium. Beijing also provided 5,000 ring magnets which are helpful in the high-speed rotation of centrifuges. Pakistan was able to construct Chashma Nuclear Power Complex and plutonium reprocessing facility with vigorous assistance of China. Beijing also helped Pakistan in various international forums including United Nations, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), while Islamabad assisted Beijing in decimating Muslim terrorist outfits in XUAR and protected China in OIC and NAM meetings. Islamabad is passing from a grave economic crisis and China promised to invest more than $50 billion in CPEC, which Pakistan considered a big relief although it will prove a debt-trap. There is no permanent friend or foe in foreign relations and China is using Pakistan as a proxy against India.  In case of war between India and Pakistan China will not jump in war hence Islamabad should shun terrorism and try to concentrate in the development of the country.  

Initially China- Pakistan relations were driven on ancient proverb that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Islamabad uses Beijing as a counterweight to India, while China supports Pakistan to keep check on India and encumber its progress. Pakistan was separated from India on the basis of failed two nation’s theory and after its independence; both countries fought three full scale wars, excluding attack by Pakistani troops on Kargil. As two nations theory was not viable and religion alone cannot keep the states and regions together, an important part of Pakistan i.e. East Pakistan was separated, and a new nation with the name of Bangladesh, was born. Pakistan alleges that Bangladesh was created only because of assistance rendered by India and it does not agree with the hard fact that the new nation was born, because of atrocities perpetrated by Punjabi dominated West Pakistan and after the elections it refused to give the rightful claim of residents of East Pakistan. Pakistan army, which projects itself as the saviour of Pakistan and its ideology, has waged a low intensity war against its eastern neighbour. Pakistan is conscious that India is more powerful in conventional warfare hence it developed nuclear warheads to threaten India. Nonetheless, Islamabad is also aware that possession of nuclear warheads is one thing, but its use is dangerous, hence it wants to have protection of some powerful country, which comes to its rescue in case of hostility with India. Previously it depended on United States, now it claims that China is Pakistan’s all weather friend.

The leaders of both China and Pakistan claimed that their friendship is “higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger than steel and sweeter than honey” but both the states have glaring differences. China is a communist capitalist country while Pakistan is an Islamic fundamentalist nation. Pakistan was one of the first few countries, which recognised Peoples Republic of China in 1950. Both countries became close to each other as both fought wars with India.

China, which is progressing very fast and emerged as the second largest economy in the world, considers India as its potential competitor. Both India and China already fought a war in 1962, and have serious border disputes at several places. Besides border disputes both countries have several irritants, including water dispute, China obstructs India’s membership of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC) passes through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir which is integral part of India hence India objected its construction. CPEC is an important part of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is the favorite project of Chinese president Xi Jinping. There are several other tribulations also, including India’s special relations with Bhutan, China’s assistance to Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M) Chief Masood Azhar in United Nations Security Council. China also mentions that India had given shelter to Dali Lama and hundreds of his followers and alleges that Tibetan refugees are carrying out terrorist activities in Tibet. There are several other disagreements between two Asian giants but the foremost is the suspicion against each other.  Hence China is instigating Pakistan to create troubles in India and unfortunately Pakistan has created/assisting multifarious terrorist outfits which are involved in terrorist activities in India.  (1)

Sino-Pakistan relationship, which started because of animosity towards India, soon developed in diverse fields. China wanted to sell its armaments and Pakistan which is not producing anything but desires to snatch Kashmir and take revenge from India, purchased Chinese weaponry in huge quantity. Beijing also supplied nuclear and missile technologies to Pakistan, which generated confidence against more powerful India. China also helped Pakistan in various international forums including United Nations, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) etc. Islamabad also assisted Beijing in decimating Muslim terrorist outfits, which were creating trouble in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). China continued its oppression in XUAR against Muslim Uyghur community, but Pakistan has never raised this issue in any international forum, not only this, Pakistan also protected China in Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meetings. Islamabad also shielded Beijing in Non-Aligned Movement’s (NAM) meetings, on its actions in South China Sea.

In the relationship between Pakistan and China economic and commercial aspects also became important but the foremost consideration remained the security. China also invested and committed to invest much more in several infrastructure projects in Pakistan and as the latter is not getting Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) from other countries is welcoming Chinese investments. Beijing which has deep pockets will project Pakistan as a model to other countries for making investments in infrastructure projects. (2) 

At present China’s economy is slowing down and it is not advisable to invest all money inside the country, hence Beijing wants to invest money abroad. Pakistan is a prudent choice, as it is not only a neighbouring country but because of terrorism it is being isolated and needs support at several fields, therefore it is easy to control the country. China also tries to win over Pakistan as it will impede supply route to US led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) troops in Afghanistan.

Pakistan military and political leaders can enhance their image in the public by claiming, that they brought such huge foreign investment in the country. In view of rampant corruption, army and political leaders will make their cut, while China will use this massive infrastructure for exporting its goods to Pakistan and other countries.

Pakistani army, politicians and Beijing, all will propagate about the perceived threat from abroad hence the poor and radicalised masses forget their poverty, internal problems and mounting foreign debt including Chinese loan.

CPEC is passing through troubled areas, where even Pakistan army is unable to provide security to Chinese, hence Beijing is assisting Masood Azhar founder and leader of the UN-designated terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed in United Nations, so that diverse terrorist outfits headed by him, Hafiz Saeed and others do not obstruct Chinese projects. China by assisting terrorist leader is safeguarding its personnel and projects.

BACKGROUND OF CHINA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS

Pakistan- China relations commenced from 1950, when Pakistan severed its diplomatic relations with Republic of China –Taiwan and established its diplomatic relations with People’s Republic of China (PRC). The relations between both the nations strengthened and China provided military, financial, diplomatic, technical and moral support to Pakistan and both countries mull over the other country as an important strategic confederate.

The diplomatic relations between both the counties were established on 21 May 1951, and in 1956 Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai, signed the Treaty of Friendship with Pakistani Prime Minister Huseyn Shaheed Suhrawardy. In 1963 one year after India-China war, Pakistan surrendered Trans-Karakoram Tracts to China to settle border disputes and strengthen relations.

After resolving border disputes in 1963, China started military support to Pakistan from 1966 and a strategic alliance was constituted in 1972, one year after dismemberment of Pakistan. The economic co-operation between both the countries started from 1979. China emerged as the biggest supplier of armaments and the third-largest trading partner of Pakistan. China also assisted Pakistan in improving its civil nuclear power- reactors. (3)

Pakistan claims China as its ‘all weather friend’, and maintaining good relations with China is an important aspect of Pakistan’s foreign policy. Pakistani President General Zia-ul-Haq visited China in 1986 and in 1989. Both Pakistan and Cuba supported China after Tiananmem Square protests. Pakistan also supports China against Taiwan, human right violations in the country including Tibet. Both countries have a free-trade agreement. China’s exports to Pakistan in 2017 were $18.25 billion, while Pakistan’s export to China was reduced to $1.83 billion. Pakistan also helped China by arranging historic visit of U.S. President Richard Nixon in 1972.  (3) 

Pakistan is the only Muslim country, which has nuclear weapons and surplus manpower. Beijing is using Islamabad to enhance its impact on Islamic countries of Middle East and Central Asia. Pakistan has also surrendered huge areas of Kashmir to China.

DEFENCE COOPERATION INCLUDING TRANSFER OF BALLISTIC MISSILES

A recent report of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals that Pakistan has emerged as the 9^th biggest importer of armaments, and China which full-fills 70 percent of Pakistan weapons need, became the foremost exporter of weaponry after surpassing United States. Now US supplies only twelve percent of the total weapons import of Pakistan. SIPRI further mentions that China became the fifth biggest exporter of arms by increasing 38 percent weapons sale in last five years. Beijing exported weapons to 48 countries; nonetheless Pakistan remained the biggest importer of Chinese armaments. Pakistan, which is a primary global consumer of Chinese weapons, purchases about 30 percent of China’s arms exports. Bangladesh and Myanmar are two other main importers of Chinese arms and ammunition after Pakistan. (4)

Pakistan is leaning towards China as USA is putting more restrictions, and the strategists in Islamabad feel that Washington is becoming closer to Delhi, because of multifarious reasons. The trend of moving towards China took momentum, when US Congress blocked sale of eight F-16 fighter jets to Islamabad. As sale of F-16 was blocked, Pakistan moved towards JF-17 fighter jets. US suspension of  two billion dollars military aid also reduced US arms supply to Pakistan. US is pressing Pakistan to stop assistance to Afghan Taliban, especially Hikmatyar group, but Pakistan military which wants to install puppet government in Afghanistan, is not adhering to US requests. The continuous assistance to Afghan Taliban especially Hikmatyar groups has deteriorated US Pakistan relations, which also abridged US arms supply to Pakistan. Besides weapons, China also provided technology, designs, and knowhow to produce missiles, and in 1990 Beijing sold more than thirty M-11 missiles, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Pakistan also manufactured missiles based on Chinese designs at National Defence Complex facilities in the Kala Chitta Dhar mountain range near Islamabad. The effective range of the missile is 2,750 KMs. (5)

Just few days before the scheduled visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and General Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to South Asian nations including Pakistan, US countervailed $ 300 million assistance to Pakistan. Both Mike Pompeo and General Dunford visited Pakistan in the first week of September 2018 and met Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and others. Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood remarked that it was not assistance but it was a reimbursement of the money, which Pakistan spent in improving the regional security. Nonetheless, this scraping of the assistance further deteriorated US-Pakistan relations. It will be a big jolt to Pakistan as it is facing a severe economic crisis. Although this US action will push Pakistan more towards China but it was essential as Pakistan was continuing its assistance to terrorist outfits especially Haqqani network, which is constantly attacking US led NATO forces as well as Afghan troops. (7)

China also gave HQ-16 air defence missile systems and A-100 rocket launchers, while VT-4 tanks are in the pipeline. China sold JF-17 fighter jets, which were similar to F-16, at a much lower cost and later gave permission to build the aircraft in Pakistan and permitted to export it also. China also supplied drones and its design to Pakistan, again in 2016 Beijing sold eight attack submarines to Islamabad worth $5 billion, which was the biggest arms sale by China. The submarines were supplied by China Shipbuilding Trading Company and China gave loan on low interest rate. China also agreed to supply Chengdu J-10B fighter jets, which has features resembling to F-16C most advance versions. Chengdu J-10B has more advance radars and stealthy features than F-16C. (5&3) 

China has not only supplied armaments, but in several cases gave designs and permission to export these weapons. Beijing also provided space technology to Islamabad. China also launched joint projects with Pakistan, including JF-17 fighter aircraft, K-8 Karakorum advance training aircraft, AWACS systems etc. Beijing provided license to produce Al- Khalid tanks, which are similar to Chinese T-90 tanks. Both Chinese and Pakistan army conducts joint military exercises. China is also constructing Gwadar Deep Sea Port, which will provide an opportunity to Beijing to initiate warships and submarines in Indian Ocean. (3)

Beijing is increasing the military might of Islamabad as Pakistan army is helpful in curbing the terrorist outfits supporting Uighur Muslims in Xianjiang region of China. Beijing which considers Delhi as its potential competitor, is encouraging Pakistan to carryout terrorist activities in India, so that the latter spends its money and energy in handling terrorists. China enhanced Pakistan’s military capability to inculcate confidence in Pakistan military and contain India.  China helped Islamabad in producing 20, CH3 Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), which initiated production of UAVs in Pakistan.

CHINA’S ASSISTANCE TO PAKISTAN NUCLEAR PROGRAMME

Pakistan mischievously propagated that its nuclear programme was a reaction of India’s Pokhran nuclear test of 1974. In fact after creation of Bangladesh in 1971, Pakistan decided to equip itself with nuclear warheads to counter India’s supremacy in conventional warfare. Pakistan army, which has usurped maximum resources of the country, has created an illusionary threat from India, decided to possess nuclear warheads, which will provide the requisite security to Pakistan. Islamabad’s nuclear programme commenced from 1971 while India’s nuclear programme got momentum from 1987. (14)

China helped Pakistan in construction of nuclear infrastructure, when US and European countries put stringent restrictions in obtaining equipment required in enriching uranium and in procurement of plutonium. China has given Pakistan designs, material, equipment and knowhow to produce nuclear warheads. One American nuclear expert even mentioned that without Chinese assistance there was no Pakistani nuclear programme. However, China also utilised nuclear design stolen by Pakistani nuclear scientist A Q Khan from a European enrichment plant. Pakistani scientists had gone to China and got rigorous training, China also gave design of the CHIC-4 device to Islamabad. Pakistani scientists including AQ Khan used Chinese designs for Pakistani nuclear plants. Analysts claim that on behest of China, North Korea supplied Liquid-fuelled ballistic missiles to Pakistan in lieu of the information pertaining to the uranium enrichment.  (14)

Chinese also helped in the construction of Khushab reactor which plays a vital role in the production of plutonium. China also provided 5,000 ring magnets which are helpful in the high-speed rotation of centrifuges. Pakistan was able to construct Chashma Nuclear Power Complex and plutonium reprocessing facility with active assistance from China. 

According to an estimate at present China has 280 nuclear war-heads and Pakistan possess 130-140 nuclear war-heads, while India has approximately 110-120 nuclear war-heads only. Pakistan is working hard to enhance its nuclear arsenal and it is anticipated that in 2025, it will possess more than 220 nuclear war-heads. 

China Pakistan Economic Corridor may sour Pakistan China relations

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an important segment of One Belt and one Road Initiative (BRI), under which Beijing has pledged to invest more than $50 billion. Islamabad is passing from a grave economic crisis and it desires that Saudi Arabia and China bailout the country from the prevailing economic calamity. Pakistan’s economic condition is deteriorating as US has suspended the financial assistance, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is not coming, the import has increased while export is dwindling, foreign remittances are also reduced.  Hence huge Chinese investment in CPEC is crucial for the country.  

The CPEC will connect Kashgar to Khunjerb and Gwadar as well as the Central Asian countries. Gwadar port which is strategically located will work as a significant trade centre for China. At present 60 percent of Chinese oil is transported through Persian Gulf to Shanghai commercial port of China. The ships cover long distances, hence China intends to use Gwadar Port which will reduce time and distance.

China promised to set up several industries pertaining to household appliances, telecommunication, textiles, garments, minerals, fertilizers etc. China will establish industrial parks with infrastructure including electricity, water and parking. China with massive population and less arable land gave utmost emphasis on agriculture. Chinese companies will capture agricultural farms, fruit gardens on the name of mechanization, use of fertilizers, seeds, livestock etc. Chinese will establish fruits and vegetables processing units and will also create massive storage and transportation facilities, so that agricultural products can be exported to China.  Beijing will also built fiber optic cable in the country and link it with Chinese media so that Chinese culture can be disseminated. (10)

The investments hungry Pakistan, without analyzing CPEC in details, projected to the masses that country’s economic problems will be over through CPEC. The contents of the project were not made public to avoid criticism and condemnation. However as information about CPEC is trickling down, it is clear that China which has deep pockets, surplus manpower and raw material, will utilise these in CPEC and will grab all mega projects at higher prices and will give loan to Pakistan on higher interest rates and when Pakistan will not able to repay the loan, China will occupy strategic projects and arable land. (10)

Sri Lanka lost Hambantota port while Maldives was forced to sign not only free-trade agreement with China but also lost one island to China. Beijing has constructed mega infrastructure projects in developing countries but the projects are lying idle and countries are finding difficult to repay the loans.

CPEC would link land-locked recalcitrant Xinjiang autonomous region from Gwadar port and most of the rail and road would be constructed by Pakistan. According to an estimate Pakistan will end-up paying $90 billion by 2030 to China. It is difficult to visualise how Pakistan will repay such a hefty amount. In CPEC around $35 billion will be spent on power sector and China will be charging Rs. 8.50 per kilowatt while prevailing rate is Rs. five. China will be claiming 17 to 20 percent assured return. In view of large scale power theft, China will not able to recover the assured return and it will be a big pressure on Pakistan. According to reports Pakistan owes $19 billion to China and the CPEC loan will be $14 billion hence Pakistan’s total public debt is estimated to $90 billion by June 2019. Pakistan has already mortgaged diverse fixed assets including few roads, airports and radio and television stations to International Monetary Fund (IMF). (10)

Chinese companies have taken tax concession and all major projects of CPEC will go to Chinese companies as there will be no competition and no global tenders. Chinese companies will charge more, will not give employment to local people and will use Chinese raw material. Pakistani industries will not able to compete with Chinese cheap material and the industries will die their own death.

There is lot of resentment against Chinese companies and Chinese personnel in Balochistan, and Pakistan occupied Giligit and Baltistan (POGB) from where CPEC will be passing. Hence Pakistan raised two divisions to protect Chinese assets and personnel; it will be an additional expenditure. Most of the power plants planned in CPEC are coal based, which will enhance pollution level. Corruption is a major issue in Pakistan and there will be massive embezzlement, which may hamper the progress and optimistic results of CPEC.

China has export oriented economy and it needs lot of minerals. Analysts feel that Beijing is eying on the unexploited mineral resources of Balochistan and POGB. POGB has lot of water resources and avenues of power generation which China will need to sustain its manufacturing industry.

The intellectuals and economists are complaining that CPEC will be harmful for the country and the masses are also against it hence the exhilaration about CPEC is dwindling and resentment is increasing. Chinese are realising the opposition, hence now Beijing is dealing more with Pakistan army and less with the civilian government. There are reports, that now China is also reconsidering its investments and recently it has not released funds for few projects including an important railway project of nine billion dollars. Few smaller projects including power projects are also shelved because of financial constraints. Chinese private companies and banks are reluctant to invest as they are not sure about the repayment. Islamabad had also rejected the Chinese proposal to build Diamer Bhasha dam because of unfavourable provisions.

The contents of agreement of CPEC are kept closely guarded secret and in 2015 governor of State Bank of Pakistan accepted that he is not aware about equity, or debt in the project. The cabinet also informed that the government is not aware about the quantum of grant, loan or equity in the CPEC. It indicates that civilian government is kept in oblivion from CPEC agreement and all powerful army, which is totally dependent to China, was in the forefront.

A Pakistani senator gave a prophetic statement in 2016, when he mentioned that China will be another East India Company and will bankrupt several Pakistani companies and CPEC will prove a ‘national Calamity’. Pakistan will become a satellite state of China and will be dependent on several small items also.

 China projects CPEC as an economic project while Pakistan accepts the strategic importance of CPEC. China will get entrance to Indian Ocean as well as to the gargantuan markets of Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia, while Pakistan will become closer to China, which may work as counter to its archrival India. As China’s major oil supply comes from Indian Ocean its day to day survival depends on this route. US navy and its allies keep a watch on the “aggressive moves “of China. Beijing also fears that US works on the policy of ‘containment of China’ with its allies including Japan, South Korea, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines, Singapore and India hence it also wants to keep few allies with it including  Pakistan on its side.    (11)

China is quite stringent in realising its debts and cash-starved Pakistan has not analysed the agreement well, which is drastically in faovour of China. Beijing will occupy Gwadar port and several other immovable assets of Pakistan, under the garb of non-payment of debt. China made it clear, that CPEC is a financial adventure, and there will be no donations in it, although it will help in stabilizing faltering Pakistan. Islamabad mentions that it is not a debt-trap but it is an investment. Nonetheless, if it is an investment then, how China will get the desired return on its mammoth investment. Pakistan’s financial condition is precarious even before the start of CPEC, what will happen once China will start realising return of its enormous investments. Pakistan which is habitual defaulter in repayment considers that China has to bail out again and again as the country is working as a counterweight against India. However the hardliner in Pakistan cautions, that there are major differences between democratic US and communist China. Beijing will snatch several areas of Pakistan if it defaults in repayment. (11)

The analysts mention that BRI and its principal project CPEC are strategic projects and China is extrapolating them as economic project with malafide intentions. The venture will benefit only to China both financially as well as strategically, while all other counties especially Pakistan will emerge as a big looser. (11)

 Way Forward

There are more than 21 million Muslims in China including 11 million Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang region, besides Xinjiang, Muslims also reside in Qinghai, Ningxia and Gansu regions. Chinese government has put stringent restrictions on Muslims and large numbers of Muslims are kept in detention centers and re-induction camps. Muslims are not allowed to keep fast in the holy month of Ramzan and there are restrictions on keeping beards etc. China wants to crush Muslims but there is lot of resentment and Uighurs have also constituted few separatist outfits namely East Turkestan Islamic Movement, World Uyghur Congress, Turkistan Islamic Party, East Turkestan Liberation Organisation etc. and are demanding a separate nation. Besides these separatist outfits Islamic State and Al Qaeda are also trying to arouse Islamic sentiments among Chinese Muslims. Although Pakistan army may like to help Chinese in crushing Muslim’s uprising but there are large number of terrorist outfits and their splinter groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan which Pakistan army has no control and they will continue providing weapons and training to Uighur secessionist elements.

There are several training centres where Pakistan army, serving and retired personnel impart training to terrorists. After obliteration from Iraq and Syria, Islamic State is trying to establish itself in Afghanistan as well as in Federally Administered Tribal Areas in Pakistan (FATA). It will be dangerous for the region including China. Hence it is in interest of China to pressurise Pakistan to discontinue assisting terrorist outfits and dismantle vast infrastructure created to train terrorists. Once ISI destroys the terrorist infrastructure, assistance to Uighur separatists would also be curbed automatically.

 At present China needs Pakistan to contain India and relations with US are tense but soon China may inculcate cordial relations with India and US, and at that time China would abandon Pakistan. Hence Pakistan must stop nurturing terrorist outfits and put the country’s finance and energy in the economic development of the state as there is no permanent friend or foe in the foreign relations. China will also not like to be tagged with Pakistan which has faced three coups and several phases of unrest. Hence Islamabad must change its policies and stop abetting terrorism.

China should stop shielding Masood Azhar, Chief of Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M) in United Nations Security Council against his declaration as a global terrorist. Masood Azhar and his brother both are terrorists and if China continues assisting Pakistan and its numerous terrorists, soon it will be branded as helper to a terrorist state.

The Trump administration is tightening Pakistan as the latter is continuously assisting terrorist outfits which are attacking US forces in Afghanistan. The financial assistance given by US is either suspended or revoked. In this way if China continuously helps Pakistan the relations between US and China will also become tense. Both US and China are already engaged in terse trade war. US has also  imposed sanctions against the Chinese Equipment Development Department as it purchased S-400 surface to air missiles and Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. However US and China are two biggest economies of the world and have very strong economic relations hence the relations will improve soon. Not only this, relations between China and India are also strengthening, hence for Pakistan, China may not strain its relations with India or US. China has other strategic problems including trouble with Taiwan, in Korean peninsula as well as in South and East China Seas. Pakistan with its internal problems including financial crisis will become a big liability. China, India and US, all are suffering because of terrorism which is emanating from Pakistan hence all the three countries can work together on counter-terrorism. They can also work on infrastructure development and can increase trade.  (8 &13)

In the beginning, Pakistan army was completely dependent on America for supply of armaments as well as for training. US support enhanced manifold when Pakistan agreed to work as front state against Soviet troops in Afghanistan. However when Pakistan was trying to develop nuclear warheads, US suspended all military assistance under Pressler Amendment in 1990. Pakistan felt deceived and slanted heavily towards China. Unfortunately Pakistan has failed to learn lessons from past mistakes. If Pakistan will continue supporting terrorism China will also dump it soon.

Recently, Washington based Wilson Centre published a study in which it mentioned that middle level and younger Pakistani Army officers consider that home grown terrorism is a bigger danger than India. Nonetheless the senior Pakistani Army Officers continues to project India as the biggest danger for Pakistan. In fact few senior Pakistani Army officers have close links with terrorist outfits, while others are enjoying several benefits by projecting India as enemy number one. Nevertheless it is encouraging to see that middle level and junior army officers especially of navy and air force are realising that terrorism is the main threat for the country and it must be eliminated. It is a good sign, and if Pakistani army makes sincere efforts terrorism can be eliminated from the country. Not only this if Pakistan army does not consider India as its foremost enemy, it will not play Chinese cards and may stop cross-border terrorism and in that case the hostility between India and Pakistan may come to an end. Pakistan’s undue dependence on China will also stop and Islamabad may take decisions without gratuitous pressure from Beijing. (9)

Sometimes back China which is suffering from terrorism has passed a law that Chinese forces can conduct counter-terrorism operations out of the country. China is suffering from Uighur terrorism and Pakistan and Afghanistan forces are not able to control these Islamic outfits which are helping Uighur terrorist outfits, through POGB. The analysts claim that after passing of the law, Chinese forces may enter POGB or even the Badakshan province of Afghanistan from where the secessionists of East Turkestan Islamic Movement are operating.

The CPEC passes through POGB and residents of the area are against Federal government as well as of CPEC. China wants peace in Afghanistan, and as Kabul considers Islamabad as its enemy, Beijing has agreed to start projects with India. Pakistan must control diverse terrorist outfits otherwise it will continue loosing friends. It should also strengthen itself economically, because there is change in Chinese perception. Previously China-Pakistan relationship was primarily security-centric but now China is attaching more emphasis on economy. (12)

The foundation of China-Pakistan friendship rests on anti-India sentiments however the time is changing and at present China is largest trading partner of India and in financial year 2016-17 India imported goods worth Rs.4, 11,124 Crores. Besides import China’s 84 percent of total crude oil and hydrocarbons comes through Indian Ocean where Indian Navy has assertive presence. Hence China will not like to fight with India because of Pakistan and in past when India Pakistan fought, China never intervened. China is using Pakistan as a proxy against India. Hussain Haqqani former Pakistan Ambassador in US has rightly put up that “for China, Pakistan is a low-cost secondary deterrent to India.”   (15)

Pakistan may not care about growing India US relationship and may remain happy with its close relationship with China but the latter has international ambition and may feel insecure if India and US becomes close to each other and will not mind discarding Pakistan to become friendly with US and India.  (16)

Imran Khan while in opposition raised questions about the utility of CPEC for Pakistan. He also assured to the masses that the contents of CPEC, which are closely guarded secret, would be released. Khan should implement his promise at an early date and the details of the contracts should be made public, so that the economists and strategic analysts can analyse the terms and conditions of these contracts in detail. In view of the recommendations of experts, Pakistan government can retain or reject the contracts. If the work on these projects start then it will be difficult to repudiate the contracts. (18)    

The government of Pakistan should also learn lessons from other countries where Chinese have signed agreements for massive investments in infrastructure projects but later the governments realised, that the contracts were not in faovour of the country and renounced them. Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad Prime Minister of Malaysia has countervailed Chinese funded energy pipelines and a rail project as these projects were not beneficial to the country. Same way former President of Maldives Mohamed Nasheed and president of The Maldivian Democratic Party whose candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih won the presidential elections, also promised to review the contracts and mentioned that Chinese want to grab Maldivian land through debts and contracts. Solih also criticised the free trade agreement signed by outgoing president Yameen. (18)

Xi Jinping has global aspiration and considers India as its potential rival; hence it will continue encircling and using Pakistan against India. Beijing will also use Islamabad to fulfill its maritime objectives and to advance OBOR projects. China would also carryon assisting and instigating Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and others against India. However China will evade open confrontation with India but it will use Pakistan and other countries to needle India with malafide intention to dwindle its progress. Hence India should also be friendly with China but should be ready for confrontation.

NOTES AND REFERENCES

(1)  J.K. Verma : Inculcate Friendly Relations with China: But be ready for Confrontation. Aakrosh July 2018

(2)  Brookings India : China-Pakistan relations: A new Chapter, 22 July, 2016

(3)  Wikipedia  “China-Pakistan relations”

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–Pakistan_relations

(4)  Usman Kabir: Pakistan listed 9^th largest arms importer in the world by SIPRI

The Tribune Express March 13, 2018

(5)  Anwar Iqbal: Pakistan reducing dependence on US arms: FT report Dawn 19 April, 2018

(6)  J K Verma: Is there place for Muslims in China? The Pioneer dated 23.08.2018

(7)  Ayaz Gul: US-Pakistan Tensions Flare Before Pompeo Trip dated 02.09.2018 Global Security.org   https://www.voanews.com/a/us-pakistan-tensions-flare-before-pompeo-trip/4554607.html

(8)Derek Grossman and Karen Zhu : The RAND Blog

(9)https://m.dailyhunt.in/news/india/english Not Indian Now terrorists are Young Pakistani army officers bigger Enemy 19.09.2018

(10) J.K.Verma: CPEC: A Debt Trap for Pakistan. The Pioneer dated 27.02,2018

(11) Sushant Sareen : Why CPEC could be the end of China-Pakistan        relationship Daily O April 27, 2018

(12) Brookings: China-Pakistan relations: A new chapter? https://www.brookings.edu/

(13) US Sanctions Chinese military for buying Russian weapons. The Pioneer dated 22.09.2018

(14) G Parthasarathy: Beware the China-Pakistan nuclear axis. The Hindu Business Line dated 1^st November, 2017

(15) Neha Surwade: Pakistan China: All weather friendship. Or a partnership of Limited Cooperation January 27, 2018 Centre for Land Warfare Studies

(16) Huma Sattar:China and Pakistan’s All-Weather Friendsgip dated 12.03.2015 The Diplomat

(17) China’s trillion-dollar OBOR project runs into debt jam : Times of India    Dated 3^rd, September 2018.

(18)Eileen Ng in Kula Lumpur, Kathy Gannon in Islamabad & Gillian Wong in Beijing : Can Solih, Mahathir redeem anti-China poll campaign vows? The Pioneer 30^th September, 2018

 

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Islamabad must heed revolt brewing in its backyard

There have been several reported uprisings in Muzaffarabad, Bhimber, Mirpur, Kotli and other major cities of POK. The Islamabad controlled media has not covered these demonstrations, but local dailies and some international media have reported about these demonstrations,  writes J K Verma for South Asia Monitor

By J K Verma FEB 21, 2019

·         

While the focus in the media lately has been on Kashmir Valley, what has not got enough public attention is that residents of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK)  have been resorting to agitations, demonstrations and rallies against what they term as excesses and exploitations of Islamabad. The inhabitants of POK, a territory Pakistan calls "Azad Kashmir" (the third of original territory of Kashmir that is with Pakistan since 1948)  has a population of about 4.5 million and a total area of 13,297 square kilometres, have demanded independence from Pakistan. In the beginning, residents of POK were happy to be the part of Islamic Republic of Pakistan because of religious affinities. Soon, however, they realised that Punjabi dominated Pakistan is treating POK as a colony and the resources of the region were exploited for the benefit of Punjab.

There have been several reported uprisings in Muzaffarabad, Bhimber, Mirpur, Kotli and other major cities of POK. The Islamabad controlled media has not covered these demonstrations, but local dailies and some international media have reported about these demonstrations.

In December 2018, residents of Kotli took out a rally to insist for better medical care. Demonstrators shouted anti-Pakistan slogans and carried placards against the central and POK governments. In November 2018, residents of Bagh demonstrated and demanded that oppressive rule of Islamabad must end and also sought a better education system. In October, United Kashmir People’s National Party also organised protests in several parts of POK.  

The demonstrators protested against the hydroelectric dam over the Neelam river, water shortages, exploitation of local resources, rising unemployment and anti- people policies of the government but the main demand was “freedom” for Kashmiri people. They also protested against extra-judicial killings, phoney encounters and disappearances of leaders demanding freedom. Residents claim there is no railway line, no international airport, medical facilities and that the educational system are primitive. There is no freedom of expression and, if any newspaper dares to depict the pathetic condition of the area, it is banned. The Daily Mujadala published a survey in which they found that 73 percent residents of POK wanted to establish an independent country. The survey and other factual reports irritated the Pakistan army and the newspaper was banned.

The demonstrators shouted slogans like “Pakistan go to hell”, “Kashmiris want liberty”, “Butchers of Kashmiris, Pakistan army” etc. The protesters from Jammu and Kashmir National Students Federation even tried to enter India. The security forces resorted to caning and firing tear gas shells to disrupt these protests. Leaders of the All-Party National Alliance claimed that ISI (Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency) has "exterminated" more than 100 persons who were fighting for the independence of Kashmir.

Extensive protests were also held last July in Rawalkot, where demonstrators raised slogans against the Pakistani government and the army for supporting diverse terrorist outfits like Lashkar-e-Toiba (L-e-T) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M) for carrying out terrorist activities in India. They also protested against maintenance of terrorist camps in POK.

The business community in Skardu in Gilgit & Baltistan (G&B) also demonstrated against the illegal tax regime. The business community mentioned that it is a disputed area and Islamabad had no right to levy taxes there.

There were also protests in Hunza valley against long power cuts and against exploitation by Punjabis and Pashtuns. Demonstrators also shouted slogans against misuse of their land and water resources. The protesters also mentioned that Islamabad is trying to destroy their identity and culture. Residents of POK also organised demonstrations against Pakistan in Geneva and London.

The masses there have no idea that India is opposed to CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). However, the younger generation is getting information about India and world news through the internet. Young students want to come to India for higher studies and demand reservation in IIMs, IITs, medical and engineering colleges. They claim that POK is part of India, hence they are entitled to study in Indian institutions.  

Pakistan has waged a low-intensity war against India and is assisting the Afghan Taliban to install a puppet regime in Kabul. Recently, the Pakistan based Jaish al-Adl attacked and killed 27 Iranian border guards. Pakistan is passing through an economic crisis and Prime Minister Imran Khan is asking for bailout packages from friendly countries and International Monetary Fund.

There are several nationalities in Pakistan, and except Punjabis, all are unhappy, and some want to secede. The Baloch now are demanding a separate nation. Pashtuns, Sindhis and Muhajirs have earlier also revolted against Islamabad. POK and G&B also want to separate, hence Islamabad, instead of wasting its resources on instigating terrorism in other countries should try to get its own house in order. If the neighbours of Pakistan start assisting these disgruntled nationalities, Pakistan may have to face more disintegrations. Pakistan must remember the old proverb, “Live by the sword, die by the sword".

(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

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Home » Spotlight » Deadliest attack on CRPF convoy: Jaish used Afghan pattern

Deadliest Attack On CRPF Convoy: Jaish Used Afghan Pattern

By J K Verma

New Delhi. 15 February 2019. The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) funded terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M) carried out the deadliest attack on the convoy of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) yesterday, in which more than 40 valiant soldiers were martyred. The terrorist attack was similar to Afghan pattern under which the suicide bomber rams his explosives laden car with the vehicle of security forces. In these attacks chances of escape are minimal.

On 14^th February suicide bomber Adil Ahmad Dar also known as Waqas Commando of Gundibagh, who joined J-e-M about a year ago, bumped the car which was loaded with more than 60 KGs of explosives in a CRPF bus. The bus was the part of convoy which was going from Jammu to Srinagar. The convoy which started from Jammu around 0300 hours had more than 75 vehicles and approximately 2500 persons. The dastardly terrorist attack was carried out at about 1500 hours at Lethipora in Pulwama district, which is one of the four districts in south Kashmir, where Pakistan sponsored terrorists are very active. The impact of the explosion was so much that not only the soldiers travelling in the ill-fated bus were martyred, even another bus just behind it also suffered heavy casualties.

It is also reported that although Adil Dar was alone in the vehicle, but his other accomplices were not only giving him cover but also fired on the convoy. The security forces are analysing that how J-e-M was able to carry out such a major operation although the local leadership is already exterminated by the security forces. Mohammad Usman chief of Kashmir unit of J-e-M was eliminated by security forces in 2017. Usman was nephew of Masood Azhar who is a UN-designated terrorist and Chief and founder of J-e-M and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen.

Analysts claim that the mastermind of this monstrous terrorist action was Mufti Abdul Rauf Asghar, younger brother of Masood Azhar and father of slain terrorist Mohammad Usman. At present Masood Azhar is seriously ill hence Rauf is the Operational Head of J-e-M. Both India and United States have designated him as a global terrorist. Rauf was also the brain behind the hijacking of Indian Airlines aeroplane in December 1999 and terrorist attack at Pathankot Air Base. A Red Corner Notice is also issued by Interpol against him.

Generally, the convoy was of 1000 personnel or less but this time it was of more than 2500 people, as the highway was closed for few days because of inclement weather. The security forces claimed that all due precautions were taken, the convoy route was sanitised, road opening party was deployed, force personnel were alert to counter throwing of grenades etc. but Adil was a local and he took advantage of the liberty given to the civilians to ply the vehicles on service and village roads connecting the highway even at the time of movement of convoys of security forces.

However, Home Minister Rajnath Singh visited Kashmir on 15^thFebruary and made it clear that in future civilian vehicles will not be allowed when the convoy of security forces moves. ISI prefers to use disgruntled local Muslims for carrying out terrorist attacks so that they can allege that the local Kashmiris are so frustrated from Indian atrocities that they are involved in terrorist activities.

The specialists claim that this attack was different from the previous attacks and J-e-M has adopted a sophisticated tactic and it is essential for the security agencies to also change their strategy. It should also be seen that Adil had joined J-e-M just a year back and the terrorists were able to brainwash him so much that he offered to work as a Fedayeen. Jammu & Kashmir was the land of Sufi saints and there was no religious extremism in the province but the separatist on behest of ISI has shunted out moderate Kashmiri Imams from mosques and hardcore fundamentalists became Imams in the mosques. These Imams are spreading Salafism and Wahhabism in the valley. The intelligence organisations should pin-point the mosques and the preachers who are spreading extremism in the valley and culprits should be punished under the law. The local government should make efforts to stop radicalisation and there should be sincere efforts to de-radicalise the persons who are already radicalised.

This attack also indicates that ISI and separatist leaders in the valley are becoming desperate because of the success of operation All Out and Cordon & Search operations. The terrorists are regularly exterminated, and Pakistan is not able to infiltrate more terrorists because of stringent watch on the borders. ISI and its henchmen are worried that terrorism is weakening in the valley. The February 14 attack gave a new boost to the terrorists as well as to Pakistan backed separatists. J-e-M gave a tough message through this attack that they have a strong presence in the valley.

Islamabad is desperate as the residents of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) are also demonstrating against Islamabad. They already held several protests, rallies and demonstrations against the carnages of the central government. They clearly mention that Islamabad is exploiting them, and they are residing in primitive era and they have no modern facilities. They also mention that their counterparts in India are availing much more modern facilities than them. Islamabad by carrying out terrorist activities in J&K distract the attention of inhabitants of POK and claim that the residents of J&K want to secede India and want to merge with Pakistan. In this way Islamabad wants to satisfy resident of POK that they are better than the inhabitants of J&K.

Pakistan is also emboldened because President Trump is desperate to leave Afghanistan and Zalmay Mamozy Khalilzad the US diplomat and the Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation at US Department of State is negotiating with Taliban. Pakistan is assisting Khalilzad and talking to Taliban without the representatives of Afghan government. In this way firstly, Pakistan again became close to US and secondly when US troops will leave Afghanistan, Islamabad will install the regime favourable to them and against its adversary India. ISI knows that if Taliban comes to power in Afghanistan, they can recruit large number of suicide bombers on the name of Jihad and these Jihadists can be utilised to carryout terrorist activities in India especially in Kashmir. 

The Pulwama suicide attack of February 14 is on the pattern of Afghanistan and mostly these types of attacks are not common in India. If ISI is able to install Taliban regime in Afghanistan, then it is expected that the frequency of these attacks would enhance. Hence security forces especially intelligence agencies should be more vigilant.

Prime Minster Modi, Home Minister Rajnath Singh, all pledged to take revenge of this terrorist act. Union Minister Arun Jaitley has announced withdrawal of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status given to Pakistan. India gave MFN status to Pakistan in 1996 but Pakistan had not reciprocated although it gave MFN status to China. Pakistan gave Non-Discriminatory Market Access (NDMA) to India which is different.

Arun Jaitley also mentioned that India will take diplomatic steps to isolate Pakistan. Indian foreign secretary met envoys of United Nations P 5 countries including China. Indian Foreign Secretary also met foreign envoys of 25 countries and apprised them about the dubious role of Pakistan.

However, the government has to take some stringent steps because withdrawing of MFN status or trying to isolate Pakistan in world arena is not enough. India must try to destroy terrorist camps maintained in POK, which is part of India and illegally occupied by Pakistan. India is justified in sending troops or using Air Force in destroying terrorist camps in POK, if Pakistan retaliates then India should give befitting reply. Nonetheless terrorist camps move from one place to other hence before attack, intelligence agencies must gather complete information about the location, facilities and defences of these camps.

Secondly security forces must arrest the persons who supported Adil, as it is not feasible to arrange more than sixty KGs of explosives, put it on vehicle and ram it in CRPF convoy alone. These support agents must be punished.

Lastly India will have to fight its own battle and should not expect that any other country will come for its rescue. Sri Lanka exterminated the Tamil terrorist organisation The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam on its own. India also successfully eliminated Khalistan movement from Punjab, although rogue intelligence agency ISI was also helping pro-Khalistan movement. India needs strong will, systematic approach to end terrorism from Kashmir. Security forces must be ruthless with terrorists and their sympathisers but should be sympathetic towards masses.    

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

Tagged with: Adil Ahmad Dar, Afghan pattern, Afghanistan Reconciliation, Central Reserve Police Force, CRPF convoy, Deadliest attack, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Home Minister Rajnath Singh, Indian foreign secretary, Inter Services Intelligence, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Liberation Tigers, Masood Azhar, Most Favoured Nation, Non-Discriminatory Market Access, President Trump, Prime Minster Modi, suicide bomber, Tamil Eelam, Terrorist attacks, Waqas Commando of Gundibagh, Zalmay Mamozy Khalilzad

 

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Why And How Pakistan Was Surpassed By Its Poor Cousin Bangladesh?

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By J.K.Verma

New Delhi. 13 February 2019. In 1971 when Bangladesh was dissected from Pakistan, it was in a miserable condition. Pakistan Army before surrender, destroyed roads, bridges, railways and industries of the then East Pakistan. Big industrialists left the country and millions of Bangladeshis were displaced, killed and mutilated during independence struggle. Not only this in November 1970 East Pakistan also suffered a horrific cyclone, which killed about five hundred thousand persons and destroyed property worth $ 86 million, as expected Central government at Islamabad has not rendered enough assistance to the cyclone hit areas.

 However, from last few years Bangladesh is constantly earning more GDP, than its main rival Pakistan, by investing more in women empowerment, children education and healthcare. The government and NGOs constantly worked to improve at the grassroots level. The success of readymade garment industry is closely linked with the success of Bangladesh. Consequently, in the recent fiscal year Bangladesh GDP per person became $ 1538 while Pakistan’s GDP was $1470 only.

It is projected that GDP growth of Bangladesh in Fiscal year 18-20 will be between 6.5 percent to 7 percent, while Pakistan’s GDP growth in the corresponding period will be 5.8. percent only. The annual growth of Bangladesh from last ten years is about six percent and last year it was 7.8 percent, little less than India, but much above Pakistan which had 5.8 percent only. The foreign exchange reserve of Dacca is $32 billion, while Pakistan which is passing through an economic disaster is only $ 8 billion. The prime minister of Pakistan has already approached Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, China and International Monetary Fund (IMF) for monetary assistance. Imran Khan the prime Minister of Pakistan will be meeting IMF Chief Christine Lagarde on February 17 at Dubai and will again request for a bailout package. Although the population of Pakistan is more than Bangladesh but still the per capita debt liability on Bangladesh is just $434 while Pakistan’s per capita debt is more than double i.e. $974.

Bangladesh with sustained efforts have enhanced its export. In 1971 the export was negligible but in 2018 it enhanced to $35.8 billion. According to IMF the economy of Bangladesh is rising, and it will be $322 billion by 2021, from present $180 billion.

Bangladesh also successfully controlled the population explosion. In 1951 the population of East Pakistan was 42 million while the population of West Pakistan was 33.7 million, however at present the population of Pakistan is 200.81 million while the population of Bangladesh is about 166.36 million. Unfortunately, because of rise of Islamic fundamentalism no government can implement family planning measures in Pakistan. The population growth in Pakistan is highest in the region.

Dacca is much ahead of Islamabad in women employment and immunisation programmes which improved the health of female and children. Life expectancy is 72.5 years in Bangladesh while in Pakistan it is only 66.5 years. Bangladesh received much lesser foreign assistance from United States, China and Saudi Arabia in comparison to Pakistan, which has a geographical advantage, but it is still doing much better than Pakistan.

Pakistan Army which considers itself as the saviour of the country had to suffer heavy losses in 1971, when more than 90000 soldiers surrendered to Indian army. Punjabi dominated Pakistan Army usurps large resources of the country on the name of protecting the country from India. Pakistan spends lot of resources on the purchase of arms and ammunition instead of investing in the upliftment of poor masses. Pakistan spends three percent of its GDP on defence while Bangladesh devotes only one percent of GDP on defence.

Bangladesh surpassed Pakistan because it devoted money in poverty alleviation, human development, creation of jobs, augmentation of exports and lessening its dependence on foreign aid and loan. It also sorted out some problems with India while others were kept in backburner. Begum Hasina developed cordial relations with India and terrorist training camps controlled by ISI and their henchmen were destroyed and Indian terrorists took refuge in Bangladesh were handed over to Delhi. It all reduced tensions between India and Bangladesh and both the countries were able to devote more time and money in the development of the country while Pakistan is spending its meagre resources in taking revenge from India. Pakistan should devote more time, energy and financial resources in the development of the country.

Pakistan Army has convinced the fundamentalists in the country that military controlled Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has launched several covert operations in Kashmir and Pakistan will snatch it from India. The deep state has also assured the poor, illiterate, Madrassa educated Islamists that they will install puppet regime in Afghanistan.

The sinister ISI has launched low-intensity war against India and assisting diverse terrorist outfits which are carrying-out terrorist activities in Afghanistan. Pakistan should stop all these clandestine operations and should invest in the development of the country.

The elected representatives in Bangladesh do not work under the dictates of army hence they have to work for the welfare of the electorates while in Pakistan Army rules the country directly or indirectly and neither, they have to face elections nor the masses.

Pakistan should try to cultivate friendly relations with its neighbours and should eschew the path of abetting terrorist outfits. Pakistan is considered as a terrorist state in the world hence it is not getting the investments and foreigners including industrialists of Pakistan origin settled abroad are reluctant to invest in Pakistan due to poor security situation.

In the previous year Bangladesh earned $21 billion by exporting garments which is 90 percent of its foreign exchange and gives employment to about 13 million persons. China earns about $ 80 billion out of $200 billion West spends in the import of garments. The daily wages are increasing in China and it is expected that soon it will start losing the business. In that case Bangladesh will be the biggest beneficiary as Islamabad will not get much business as importers are afraid of visiting Pakistan. Pakistan figures in the top twenty on the Global Conflict Index while Bangladesh is not in the list. The other countries including India will not be benefitted much because of diverse reasons.  

The deep state of Pakistan is happy by exploiting the scant resources of the country without caring about its financial hardships, poor image in the international arena and the pitiable condition of the masses. The deep state cannot apologise Bangladesh for its atrocities as it will reduce the malicious propaganda against its arch-enemy India. Pakistan’s foreign as well as internal policies are formulated by deep state, Islamic fanatics and drug-mafia hence the country is maintaining the Jihadi image.

In Pakistan there are several nationalities, but all rights and privileges are grabbed by Punjabis. All other nationalities are exploited and downgraded. In fact, Bangladesh was created because of maltreatment, exploitation and denying of the rights of the residents of East Pakistan. At present Balochis, Pashtuns, Sindhis, Muhajirs, Kashmiris, residents of Gilgit and Baltistan, Saraikis etc are either fighting for separate states or for more autonomy. Pakistan should try to resolve the genuine grievances of these discontented nationalities otherwise it will again blame its eastern neighbour for the disintegration of the country. The rulers in Pakistan must also realise that two nation theory is failed, and religion alone cannot keep these diverse nationalities together.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan will be calamitous for region

If the Taliban comes to power, it will be a tragedy for India too; the Taliban being supported by Pakistan will harm Indian projects and interests in that country, writes J.K.Verma for South Asia Monitor

By J.K.Verma FEB 5, 2019

US President Donald Trump is desperate to recall troops from Afghanistan for domestic compulsions and, for this, he appointed Zalmay Khalilzad as special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation in September 2018. Khalilzad met Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and top Afghan officials in October and subsequently led an inter-agency delegation to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.

Besides Qatar, reconciliation talks were also held in UAE in December, for which Pakistan claimed credit. The Khalilzad-led US team, the Taliban, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE took part in those talks, which ended abruptly. Although Afghan government representatives were in the UAE, they were not allowed to participate, because the Taliban refused to sit with them. 

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said more reconciliatory talks would be held in future and that talks centred around the removal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. He made it clear that internal matters, such as formation of an interim government, elections, ceasefire and so on, were not discussed.

After the talks, Khalilzad visited Pakistan and met Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and briefed him about the talks. Analysts claim that Khalilzad requested Bajwa to persuade the Taliban to soften their attitude so that reconciliation talks succeed. After Islamabad, Khalilzad also visited Kabul and briefed Afghan authorities about the outcome of the talks.

American troops landed in Afghanistan in December 2001, to defeat Al Qaeda and to safeguard US interests. An American general had testified before the US Congress that they had “decimated Al Qaeda.” The critics said the statement was intended to justify withdrawal of American troops from war-torn Afghanistan. However the world at large and Americans in particular must remember the horrific September 11, 2001 attacks, which were carried out by Al Qaeda and the Taliban sheltered them in Afghanistan. The announcement of intent to withdraw US troops is under domestic pressure and without considering the country’s long-term interest.

The control of the Taliban over large parts of Afghanistan is not diminishing and ill-equipped, ill-trained and dispirited Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are suffering heavy causalities and losing territories. In fact, over the last few months, fatalities have enhanced to the level that the Afghan government was forced not to publish reports of casualties.

In case the US withdraws completely, then China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan would try to enhance their influence in Afghanistan. These countries would try to increase their economic and political sway in Central Asia through Afghanistan. 

President Trump’s advisers feel that the 17 years’ war, in which more than 2300 US citizens have lost their lives, is still not near any solution. The Taliban are getting assistance from various quarters, particularly from Pakistan, which wants to install a puppet regime in Kabul and considers the Taliban as a strategic asset. The present Afghan government could not achieve legitimacy as quite a few tribal groups are not part of the administration and the tribal leaders in administration are either benefiting their families or fulfilling the interests of their tribes.  

US foreign policy depends on the country’s domestic policies. Trump has ordered the withdrawal of about half the 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan and also withdrawal of 2,000 US troops deployed in Syria. Defense Secretary James Mattis resigned as he and many Trump advisers felt that hasty withdrawal of US troops would embolden the Taliban and the present Afghan government will collapse.

Once Taliban comes to power, Islamic extremism would enhance manifold and Al Qaeda and Islamic State would proliferate. Taliban would impose Sharia law and will take the country to the primitive age. State-sponsored Islamic terrorism would surge and wide-ranging terrorist incidents would take place, not only in neighbouring countries but also in distant places like America and Europe.

Sunni and Shia-ruled countries would finance diverse terrorist outfits and they will carry out terrorist activities not only in Afghanistan but in other countries. Hence Trump should postpone his decision to withdraw troops for some more time and utilise the extended period to train and equip the ANDSF with drones and other weaponry to enable them to bombard hideouts of terrorists in Afghanistan and, particularly, in Pakistan. However, care must be taken to minimize civilian casualties.

India should not send its troops to war-ravaged Afghanistan but must enhance the number of Afghan security trainees in India. If the Taliban comes to power, it will be a tragedy for India too; the Taliban being supported by Pakistan will harm Indian projects and interests in that country.

Although Afghan leaders are showing a brave face by saying that US troops are involved in training and advice only, and ANDSF is competent to counter the Taliban and other terrorist outfits, Afghan watchers are aware about the hollowness of these claims. The withdrawal of US troops will have a calamitous effect on ANDSF and will be a great morale-booster for the Taliban.

(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

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Pakistan’s Pashtun Tahafuz Movement : A Simmering Volcano

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·         Fighting human right violations and exploitation of Pashtuns

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 04 February 2019. When hundreds of Pashtuns gathered in Paris France to support Pashtun Tahafuz Movement ( PTM )in April 2018, it made many Pakistan watchers turn their heads but not in surprise. Amongst these were some famous human Rights defenders from different communities . Fazal-ur Rehman Afridi the European settled Pashtun leaders in his speech appealed to world leaders to exert pressure on Pakistan to stop the Genocide of Pashtuns. Munir Mengal , the President, Baloch voice Association Paris  also attended and addressed  the Rally. The voice was steady and strong showing the simmering of a volcano ready to erupt.

In May 2014 eight students of Gomal University in Dera Ismail Khan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa protested that landmines must be removed from whole of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) including Waziristan and especially from Mahsud areas. The agitation was named as Mahsud Tahafuz Movement, later the name was changed to Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM).

The agitation got required prominence, when Nageebullah Mehsud and his associates were killed in a fake police encounter at Karachi in January 2018 by so called encounter specialist, Rao Anwar Senior Superintendent of Police, Malir. A high-level inquiry committee headed by senior police officers probed the encounter and declared that the encounter was fake and Nageebullah Mehsud was neither a terrorist nor he had terrorist tendencies. He and his associates were killed in cold-blood as they were hailing from Waziristan. SSP Anwar alleged that Nageebullah was active member of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but TTP spokesman mentioned that the claim of Anwar was “baseless” and Nageebullah had no link with TTP. The human right activists claim that in past Anwar killed several leaders and workers of Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) in fake encounter and he was a fake encounter specialist.

A human right activist of Waziristan namely Manzoor Ahmad Pashteen was the main force behind the agitation and he was assisted by Ali Wazir and Mohsin Dawar. The PTM is against the exploitation and mistreatment of Pashtuns in the country. The foremost object of the PTM was to depict the miserable plight of Pashtuns. The PTM organised rallies at several places including Peshawar, Quetta, Lahore, Karachi, Swat, Bannu, Dera Ismail Khan and Swab. A big rally was organised on 13th January at Tank to observe the first anniversary of the fake encounter of Mehsud. Government took widespread measures so that people fail to join the rally. The leaders were arrested and sympathisers were prevented to attend the rally, but the rally was a great success and attended by large number of Pashtuns.

Pashtuns are the second-largest representation in Pakistan’s defence forces and resides both sides of Afghanistan-Pakistan borders. Pashtuns of Afghanistan demand a greater Afghanistan including Pashtun areas of Pakistan. Afghanistan never recognised 2,430 Kilometers Durand Line which is an international border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The rise of Pashtun nationalism is the cause of worry for Islamabad as it may turn into a secessionist movement.

Pakistan is already suffering from more than one secessionist movements including demand for separate Balochistan and Sindh. The residents of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) also want to secede. Gilgit and Baltistan are Shia dominated areas and are afraid of rising Wahhabism and Salafism in Pakistan. Muhajirs are ill-treated in Pakistan and demand more autonomy and separate state for them.        

 Pakistan and Afghanistan border is in turmoil since the Soviet invasion on Afghanistan. Pakistan armed forces have launched several operations with decorative names to exterminate the terrorists including Al Qaeda and Taliban. However, these operations caused innumerable atrocities including mass murders, disappearances, scarcity of essential items to the local residents who were mainly Pashtuns. They had genuine grievances against the government and PTM works as an important platform to portray their resentment.

The PTM leaders demanded the arrest of Rao Anwar and initiation of judicial enquiry of the fake encounter of Najeebullah. Leaders also demanded Judicial commission should investigate all extra-judicial killings. Forced disappearances should be stopped and all missing persons must be put before the courts, the abolition of oppressive Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR), stopping of maltreatment by security forces of Pashtuns in security checkpoints and removal of landmines from FATA.

Islamabad was worried about PTM and agreed for its few demands. The draconian FCR was replaced by FATA Interim Governance Regulation 2018. SSP Khan had to go on hiding and Alamzeb Mehsud and Ali Wazir were elected as Member Parliament.

Pashtuns’ major grievances are with the army as the army launched the so-called anti-terrorist operations which disturbed them most, hence the leaders of PTM criticised the deep state vociferously. The blatant criticism exasperated the deep state, and on their instructions, Pakistani media stopped the coverage of PTM. Pakistani army also alleged that PTM is helped and financed by anti-Pakistan and foreign forces especially by Indian intelligence agencies. The pro-establishment media painted PTM as anti-national and they wanted to destabilise Pakistan on behest of foreign forces. The present Imran Khan government which came to power with overt and covert support of army has given no attention to PTM. Pashto language Radio Mashaal which was funded by US was banned as it was giving coverage to PTM. “Deewa” a website maintained by Voice of America and was heard by Pashtun as it was covering activities at Pakistan- Afghanistan border was also banned by Islamabad. The security agencies filed several fake cases against the journalists who were reporting about the meetings and rallies of PTM.   

Several restrictions were imposed on the leaders of PTM, Ali Wazir and Alamzeb Mehsud were prohibited to go to Dubai to attend a Pashtun Cultural event. Mehsud was arrested on the charges of rioting and spreading hatred in Karachi.  

The administration could not curb the public sentiments and irrespective of grave sanctions imposed on the leaders and sympathisers of PTM, large number of Pashtuns attended the first anniversary, of the killing of Nageebullah Mehsud, at Tank in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the meeting Pastheen gave fiery speech but there was very little coverage in the media. Pakistani media has not covered due to the fear of deep state while the interest of International media vanished. The masses were disappointed with Imran government and large gathering at Tank proves the same.

PTM organised a big rally at Wana, the capital town of South Waziristan on 3^rd June 2018. Few unidentified gunmen attacked the rally and killed more than three PTM supporters and several others were injured. Pashteen claimed that the attackers were from TTP and they killed innocent PTM supporters on behest of sinister Inter Services Intelligence. Nonetheless Major General Asif Ghafoor, the Chief Spokesman of Pakistan Army alleged next Day that PTM is used by “enemies of Pakistan”. Army blames that PTM is working against the interests of Pakistan on behest of Afghanistan and Western neighbour has launched a ‘Hybrid war’ against Pakistan and PTM is used by them.

PTM has also threatened that if army does not end the exploitation of Pashtuns, they will take the case to United Nations. Pakistan took few measures to redress their grievances, but it is too less and too late.  Government should make tangible efforts to mollify the second largest ethnic group otherwise the situation will soon be out of hand.

The leaders of PTM claim that their movement is purely peaceful, and the demands are just, while the government is abusing its powers and branding them as traitors. The taxpayer’s money is wasted, Taliban are paid to disrupt peaceful demonstrations. There are reports that security forces are trying to activate terrorists and foment sectarian divide to curb the peaceful movement of PTM. The stooges of administration are organising “Pakistan Zindabad Movement” just to counter PTM and blaming them as “foreign agents”.

Islamabad should take the PTM seriously as the movement is started from grass-root and is challenging the constitutional validity of Islamabad in FATA region. Although the conventional media is not giving coverage to PTM, but it is getting support from social media and few organisations namely Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (F), Lal Salaam, International Marxist Tendency (Pakistan Chapter) have extended their support to PTM.

Deep State as well as Imran Khan must appreciate that although the PTM movement is non-violent so far but if it turns violent then it will be difficult for law enforcing agencies to handle it. There is rampant gun culture in Pashtun areas and large number of Pashtuns have fire-arms with them. 

Punjabi dominated Pakistan army should stop exploitation of other nationalities and blaming that all movements are foreign sponsored and are against the country. In past army painted the movement of East Pakistan as foreign sponsored and exploited the residents so much that they revolted, and Pakistan was dissected. Again, when MQM launched movement against the exploitation and maltreatment, Pakistan administration blamed foreign powers and crushed the movement and made no genuine efforts to solve their legitimate problems.

In Pakistan all nationalities are exploited and ill-treated by Punjabis, nonetheless degrees may differ. The worst sufferers are Balochis and Muhajirs but Pashtuns which are the second largest ethnic group and constitutes more than 14 percent of the population are also oppressed and there are blatant human right violations.

Pakistan which has launched a low intensity war against India and infiltrating terrorists especially in Kashmir and wants to stall puppet government in Afghanistan feels that all other nations must be doing the same. In fact, Punjabi dominated Pakistan should resolve legitimate problems of all other nationalities so that Pakistan comes out from the economic crisis otherwise PTM can prove disastrous for the country as other disgruntled nationalities would also start agitation against the domination and exploitation of Punjabis.   

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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3.    Pakistan planned Kartarpur as a corridor of deceit, not peace

Pakistan planned Kartarpur as a corridor of deceit, not peace

The presence of Khalistan protagonist Gopal Singh Chawla in the Kartarpur ceremony also amplifies the mala fide intention of Pakistan. Khan also made it clear that Kashmir is the only bone of contention between India and Pakistan and did not mention anything about cross-border terrorism, writes J K Verma for South Asia Monitor

By J K Verma DEC 11, 2018

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Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi remarked that Prime Minister Imran Khan had bowled a “Kartarpur googly,” which obligated India to engage Pakistan, even though New Delhi had declined negotiations with Islamabad. Qureshi also said India was forced to send two ministers to Pakistan to attend the foundation stone-laying ceremony for the Kartarpur corridor.

Earlier, Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj cancelled a meeting with Qureshi on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Qureshi raised these issues in the presence of Khan even after Swaraj clarified that the opening of the Kartarpur corridor was not connected with peace negotiations with Pakistan.

Swaraj asserted that, despite a Pakistani invitation, India will neither attend SAARC nor begin a dialogue unless Pakistan stops abetting terrorism. She emphatically stated that “terror and talks cannot go together”.

Qureshi’s statement clearly indicates that Pakistan laid a trap through opening of the Kartarpur corridor so that dialogue with India could be initiated. Pakistan had invited Swaraj to attend the groundbreaking ceremony, but she evaded the trap and declined the invitation citing prior commitments. India was aware of Pakistan’s sinister designs and sent two Sikh ministers; Harsimrat Kaur Badal and Hardeep Singh Puri.

The statement of Vijay Sampla, India's Minister of State and MP from Hoshiarpur, Punjab is also significant. He said Pakistan may use the Kartarpur corridor to infiltrate terrorists into India. Security forces have eliminated large numbers of terrorists under “Operation all out” and Pakistan is realising that terrorism in Kashmir is diminishing. The voters’ turnout in recently held panchayat elections in the state is quite encouraging. In the seventh phase of panchayat elections, 75 per cent voters cast their votes.

The central government alerted the Punjab government that the ISI is trying to revitalize insurgency in Punjab, through Sikhs settled in Europe, Canada and America. Indian Army chief General Bipin Rawat also stated in a seminar that external forces are making efforts to “revive insurgency” in Punjab and security forces should be “careful”.

A pro-Khalistan organization, Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), organised a march for “London Declaration on Referendum 2020 for Sikhs” on August 12 in London. Analysts claim that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI rendered full assistance to Gurpatwant Singh Pannun who organised the event.

Pakistan is being isolated in the world arena and is losing friends rapidly. Pakistan’s all-weather friend China’s state run CGTN network recently removed Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) from Pakistan’s map. Analysts say the timing of removing POK from Pakistan’s map is significant as the armies of both India and China had conducted a joint military exercise from December 10.

Soon after this, three terrorists of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) attacked the Chinese consulate in Karachi, on November 23. The terrorist attack by BLA is noteworthy as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which forms a significant part of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), passes through Balochistan. Several Baloch organisations claim that CPEC is not in the state’s interest and China is eyeing Balochistan’s unexploited mineral wealth. Hence China gave a clear message to Pakistan that it must provide full security to Chinese citizens in the country.

A small minority in India says New Delhi should negotiate with Islamabad and India can talk with the new Prime Minister as he is close to the 'deep state' (read military), but they forget that closeness does not mean the 'deep state' has given rights to the civilian PM to change Pakistan’s standpoint on Kashmir. Secondly, both India and Pakistan have extremely conflicting positions on Kashmir and it is very difficult to reach any amicable settlement. Thirdly, the 'deep state' has successfully convinced Islamic fundamentalists in Pakistan that either they will amalgamate Kashmir in Pakistan or it will become independent. That is seen as suitable revenge for dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971.

Pakistan now needs to negotiate with India as its image in the international arena is declining and the USA is pressing hard on it to stop assistance to diverse terrorist outfits. Nevertheless, Khan’s effort to negotiate with India is only to show the world that Pakistan seeks peace with India but, covertly, it will continue assisting different terrorist outfits as it considers India as an existential threat and will continue weakening India through a low-intensity war.

The presence of Khalistan protagonist Gopal Singh Chawla in the Kartarpur ceremony also amplifies the mala fide intention of Pakistan. Khan also made it clear that Kashmir is the only bone of contention between India and Pakistan and did not mention anything about cross-border terrorism. Thus there is no use of negotiations with Islamabad and the Indian government has taken the right stand, that cross-border terrorism and peaceful negotiations cannot go side by side.   

(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

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Pakistan Using Kartarpur Corridor To End Diplomatic Isolation And To Revive Insurgency In Punjab

New Delhi. 09 December 2018. Pakistan which is facing diplomatic isolation in world arena wants to show to the world community that it wants to have peace with India. The powerful Pakistan military, which consumes about 60 percent of Pakistan’s scarce resources, is also pressing hard to the civilian prime minister to initiate peaceful negotiations with India. Imran Khan after winning elections also stated that Pakistan wants to have friendly relations with India. He stated that “I really want to fix our ties, you take one step forward, we will take two.”

Few days back also he reiterated to start negotiations and also invited Indian Prime Minister to attend South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit. Khan also made it clear that civilian government as well as army is “on one page” and wants to recommence dialogue with India. Pakistan Foreign Office also requested Indian Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj to attend the opening of Kartarpur corridor. However instead of Minister of External Affairs, two Sikh Ministers namely Harsimrat Kaur Badal and Hardeep Singh Puri attended the groundbreaking ceremony.

The economic condition of Pakistan is deteriorating and it is making efforts to have bailout package from International Monetary Fund (IMF). However IMF has put stringent stipulations including the details of Chinese loan, its repayment and terms and conditions of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

United States (US) which always rescued Pakistan directly or through IMF is also reluctant, as President Trump is continuously issuing hard-hitting statements. US has put strident cut-offs on economic and military assistance and Trump made it clear that although US gave billions of dollars to Pakistan but it has done nothing to curb terrorism. Although Trump wrote a letter to Pakistan Prime Minister to help in negotiations with Afghan Taliban but it appears that in near future US will not extend financial assistance to Islamabad.

China, which is an all weather friend, had also showed its inability to render financial assistance, although Imran Khan went to China with great hopes. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) propagated in the country, that Khan will bring assistance of about six billion dollars from China. Although 16 agreements were signed during the visit of Pakistani prime minister but China clarified that at present no financial assistance will be given as both countries need to negotiate more. Not only this recently CGTN Television which is a government run TV channel has detached Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) from the map of Pakistan. Indian and Chinese defence forces would be conducting joint military exercise on December 10.

China is also worried about the security of several hundreds of Chinese working in Karachi and restive province of Balochistan in connection of diverse projects especially CPEC. On 23rd November three heavily armed terrorists of Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) attacked Chinese consulate in Karachi, in which seven persons including assailants were killed. In past also there were attacks on Chinese personnel; a high-ranking Chinese shipping executive was killed in Karachi in February 2018.

Iran being a Shia dominated country, views Pakistan with suspicion as the latter receives heavy financial assistance from Saudi Arabia and it has about 80 percent Sunni population. There are several Sunni terrorist organisations namely Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Ahle-e-Sunnat-Wal-Jammat, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan, Jundallah etc and these organisations claim that Shias are pretend Muslims and they must be exterminated. These organisations made several terrorist attacks on Shia mosques and their congregations. These organisations were also involved in terrorist attacks inside Iran. On 6th December a suicide attack occurred at Port city of Chabahar in which two persons were killed, while 28 were injured. Chabahar Port has Indian interests and it is near Pakistan border where Sunni extremists oppose Shias. The Foreign ministry of Iran, without taking name of any country, claimed external hand in the terrorist attack.

Pakistani press is apprehensive about growing proximity between India and Saudi Arabia. Although Saudi Arabia promised $ 6 billion dollars assistance to Pakistan but Saudi authorities constant appreciation of India is disliked by Pakistan.

Islamabad has hostile relations with Kabul as it wants to install puppet regime in Afghanistan. The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has created several terrorist outfits including Hikmatyar group which constantly carries out terrorist activities in Afghanistan.

The Western countries also consider Pakistan as a country which helps terrorists all over the world hence the new regime in Pakistan wants to uplift the image of the country.
In view of above Imran Khan proposed negotiations with India. However he mentioned that the core issue between India and Pakistan is Kashmir and it should be resolved, knowing full well that there are intense differences between both the countries about Kashmir and it cannot be resolved easily.

Few Pakistan watchers claim General Qamar Javed Bajwa is genuinely worried about the precarious economic condition of the country and although in past he appreciated CPEC but now realising that it is a debt-trap and Pakistan will not able to repay the loan and China will forcibly capture arable land and mineral rich areas of Gilgit and Baltistan. General Bajwa is also concerned about increasing dependence of Pakistan on China and its isolation from other world powers especially USA.

However Sushma Swaraj made it clear that neither India will accept Pakistan’s proposal to attend SAARC submit nor there will be any peace talks as terror and talks cannot go together. Swaraj also clarified that Kartarpur corridor is not connected with the dialogue between India and Pakistqn. The remarks of Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi about opening of Kartarpur corridor as Imran Khan’s “googly” which compelled India to send two ministers also clarifies the sinister motive of opening of Kartarpur corridor.

The Pakistan military controlled ISI is also worried as insurgency in Kashmir is slowing down. The security forces have eliminated large number of terrorists in the valley under Operation All Out. Several caches of arms and ammunition were also unearthed under Operation Cordon and Search. ISI’s support agents were also caught or extinguished during these operations. The 8th phase out of nine phases of Panchayat elections were already held peacefully in the state while ninth phase would be held on December 11. The local population took active part in the elections and in 8th phase 79.9 percent polling was held. The morale and support of terrorists is declining and people are providing actionable intelligence to the security forces which is helping them in eliminating terrorists. Pakistan is also not able to infiltrate terrorists partly because of advent of winters but mainly because of stringent vigil of security forces.

As insurgency is dwindling in J&K, Pakistan wants to revive Khalistan issue and the analysts claim that ISI would try to use Kartarpur Corridor to inflame Punjab. Khalistan separatist leaders settled in Pakistan and abroad would try to radicalise the Sikh pilgrims who will visit the holy shrine. The presence of Gopal Singh Chawla the pro-Khalistani leader, who previously stopped Indian officials from visiting Lahore Gurudwara, exposes that Pakistan has hidden agenda. The presence of General Bajwa and flouting of protocol of visiting Indian ministers also indicate the uncanny schema of Islamabad.

There are intelligence reports that Zakir Rashid Bhat Musa former Hizbul Mujahideen Commander and successor of Burhan Wani was positioned by ISI in Punjab to revive Khalistan movement. Zakir Musa who studied in Chandigarh and well versed in Punjabi is also founder and chief of Al-Qaeda cell Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind. He stayed in Mohali from 2010 to 2015, wears turban to mislead security forces and the local populace. The security agencies got information about his presence in Punjab and Gurdaspur police has even pasted posters about Musa’s presence in the region. Musa escaped from the valley because of the immense pressure of security forces on the terrorists.
According to intelligence reports the accomplices of Zakir Musa threw a hand grenade at Nirankari Bhawan in Adiwal village in District Amritsar on 18th November, 2018. The grenade attack, which killed three persons and injured more than 20 people, was on a religious congregation indicates that it is with ulterior motive of generating animosity and hatred in Punjab. The security agencies arrested three persons including Yusuf Rafiq Bhatt a close relation of Zakir Musa. According to police sources, arms and ammunition were recovered from their possession and the arrested persons have links with Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M).

In fact Pakistan’s offer of peaceful negotiations is a trap as it wants to show to the world that Pakistan is a peace-loving country and wants to start negotiations with its arch-rival India. Nonetheless it has enhanced ceasefire violations, cross-border firings, infiltration of terrorists and ruthless killings by Border Action Team (BAT). Imran Khan had also not mentioned anything about cross border terrorism, about giving punishment to Hafiz Muhammad Saeed a proclaimed offender, co-founder of Lashkar-e-Toiba (L-e-T), Chief of Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD) and mastermind of 2008 Mumbai attacks in which more than 164 civilians including 6 Americans were killed.

Hafiz Saeed and Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhavi prominent leader of L-e-T are freely moving in Pakistan and addressing public meeting and instigating masses against India. Pakistan had also released twenty special stamps eulogising Kashmiri terrorists including Burhan Wani. Hence overtly Khan offered olive branch but covertly ISI will continue cross-border terrorism hence there is no use to resume the talks and it is good that Delhi has refused to accept the bait and mentioned emphatically that first Pakistan must stop the low intensity war and then talks can recommence.

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China gets tough with Imran Khan, but will side with Pakistan

China will continue to help Pakistan, but wanted to give a strong message to Khan’s government that Beijing should not be taken for granted, writes J.K.Verma for South Asia Monitor.

 By J.K.Verma  NOV 9, 2018

 

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan returned empty handed from his four-day visit from China on November 5. The high profile visit, at the invitation of Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, was affected by the Tehreek Labbayk Pakistan’s nationwide agitation against the exoneration of Asia Bibi by the country’s Supreme Court.

Khan and his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) raised high expectations in the country before the China visit. The party projected that Khan would get six billion dollars from Beijing as he had successfully managed from Saudi Arabia. The PTI also predicted that Khan would arrange more financial assistance and concessions than his predecessors were able to obtain from China. However, the visit proved to be a routine affair, where 16 agreements were signed but no major financial assistance was promised.

 Pakistan is currently passing through a severe economic crisis and needs a bailout package. But its ‘all weather friend’ declined to immediately come to Islamabad’s rescue and said more talks were required before financial assistance could be granted.

 Saudi Arabia’s financial assistance will not be enough to tide over the crisis, hence Pakistan will now have seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has already placed stringent stipulations, including on details of Chinese loans and details pertaining to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).    

 Pakistan’s foreign office apparently could not gauge the Chinese mind correctly. President Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders were unhappy with numerous statements issued by Khan and his cabinet ministers criticizing the CPEC.

 PTI leaders said the Nawaz Sharif government had intentionally overlooked the interests of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa under CPEC projects. Cabinet ministers also said the CPEC should be reviewed as Pakistani interests were not fully safeguarded. CPEC is an important segment of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a dream project of President Xi. China was also angry that the Khan government was not defending CPEC, while the Nawaz government projected it as a great project, which would bring prosperity across Pakistan.

 Beijing signaled its displeasure at the beginning of the visit by sending the transport minister to receive Khan instead of a top level person. His meetings with Premier Li and Vice Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou were also not very successful as both made it clear that they could help only according to their capabilities. China is passing through a difficult phase because of the ongoing trade war unleashed by the US.

Analysts claim that the Pakistani delegation was not well prepared with adequate data and information before Khan’s China visit. However they say that Islamabad will now have to return to the IMF for assistance, which will be less detrimental than a loan from China.

 Beijing understands the importance of Islamabad as a strategic ally against India. Besides troubling India, Pakistan is also helping China in eliminating Uighur Muslims in the Xinxiang Autonomous Region (XAR), who are fighting for a separate homeland. Despite being an Islamic country, Pakistan never raises the issue of suppression of Uyghur Muslims in international forums and has helped China in Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) conferences. Pakistan also supported China when the South China Sea issue was raised in Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) meetings. China will continue to help Pakistan, but it wanted to give a strong message to Khan’s government that Beijing should not be taken for granted and his ministers should be careful while issuing statements against China or its projects in Pakistan.

Although Khan returned from China without any promise of financial assistance, the joint statement issued after the visit made it clear that the relationship between India’s two main rivals will remain on a strong footing.

 The joint statement clearly appreciated Pakistan’s offer to settle all pending issues with India through peaceful negotiations without any mention of cross-border terrorism originating from Pakistan. The statement clearly outlined that China did not support India’s admission in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) nor would it support a UN ban on Jaish-e-Muhammad chief Masood Azhar.

 The Chinese stand on the CPEC also remains the same. Hence India must remain prepared to face both enemies, as they are working on the lines of the ancient adage that the enemy of my enemy is my friend

 (The author is a Delhi-based strategic analyst.  He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

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Home » Spotlight » Pakistan is tense after acquittal of Asia Bibi: Country has no place for minorities

Pakistan Is Tense After Acquittal Of Asia Bibi: Country Has No Place For Minorities

By J K Verma

New Delhi. 04 November 2018. The Islamic extremists organised massive protests, forced to close schools, colleges and business installations, roads were blocked, anti government, anti judiciary and anti military slogans were chanted against the acquittal of Asia Bibi. She is a Christian woman who was sentenced to death in 2010, for a blasphemy allegation by a lower court; the sentence was confirmed in 2014 by Lahore High Court. In fact the hardliners have made Pakistan standstill, when the apex court on 31st, October reversed the judgment of the lower court and acquitted Asia Bibi. There were apprehensions that the right wing extremists would launch massive protests but the Supreme Court announced the judgment on merit.

In June 2009 a Muslim woman fought with Asia Bibi and alleged that she insulted Prophet Muhammad and took her to a nearby police station where Asia was charged with blasphemy. The analysts claim that the petitioner had fabricated the charges and on the basis of fictitious allegations the lower court sentenced her to death. Not only this, police registered the formal complaint after five days of the occurrence, which clearly indicates that charging under blasphemy law was an afterthought and with malicious intention. There were several inconsistencies in the statements of the witnesses, which also prove the malafide intentions of the accuser.

The extremist Sunni Barelvi party Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) led the protests and proclaimed that Supreme Court judges who overturned the judgment should be dismissed and killed.

In Pakistan, the demonstrators desist from chanting anti military slogans but this time the Islamic fundamentalists demanded the dismissal of Army Chief, while Pir Muhammad Afzal Qadri an important religious leader urged the army commanders to revolt against Chief of army staff. Khadim Rizvi reprimanded Imran Khan and mentioned that when Pakistan is burning he is visiting abroad.

Besides TLP other terrorist outfits including Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal and Hafiz Muhammad Saeed co-founder of Lashkar-e-Toiba, Chief of Jamaat-ud-Dawah, mastermind of 2008 Mumbai attacks also demanded hanging of Asia Bibi. Pakistan Ulema Council Chairman Hafiz Tahir Ashrafi also stated that punishment should be given to the violators of blasphemy law.

Imran Khan on October 31, after release of Asia Bibi, gave a hard-hitting speech, in which he emphatically warned the trouble makers, that the government cannot be intimidated and is determined to maintain law and order in the country. He stated that those who are protesting and disturbing law and order in the country are the “enemies of Islam”. The secular minded Pakistanis, which are rare in the country, also voiced in favour of Prime Minister. However the hardliners reminded that Imran Khan, before becoming Prime Minster, defended blasphemy law. The blasphemy law is widely used by Muslims to harass and usurp the properties of minorities. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedoms mention that about 40 persons are languishing in Pakistani prisons, as they are facing blasphemy charges. The human right activists also claim that more than 62 persons were killed by the uncontrollable mobs since 1990 under suspicion of blasphemy. The human right organisations all over the world criticise and condemn the blasphemy law, which is used against the minority community as well as against the journalists.

Asia Bibi was the first woman to be awarded death sentence under blasphemy law, nonetheless several persons, who dared to support her were also killed. In 2011 Salman Taseer who was secular minded governor of important Punjab province was assassinated by his own bodyguard Mumtaz Qadri, as Taseer was working for the release of Asia Bibi as well as for the amendment in the blasphemy laws. Although Mumtaz Qadri was hanged but he was made a martyr by fundamentalist parties and was depicted as a hero. After sometime Shahbaz Bhatti, the minister of minorities, a Christian politician who was also trying to modify blasphemy law, was also shot dead in front of his house in Islamabad.

After the acquittal of Asia Bibi there was lot of violence against minorities especially Christians, the churches and houses of Christians were burnt and looted. Several Christians had gone in hiding and churches were on high alert.

General Zia-ul-Haq, who enhanced Islamic extremism in the country with ulterior motive of suppressing democratic forces in Pakistan, made blasphemy law more repressive by including death penalty for insulting the Prophet Muhammad.

In view of uncontrollable resentment of Islamic fundamentalists, the government took an about- turn and made an agreement with Islamic extremists on 2^nd November. The government agreed that it will not allow Asia Bibi to leave the country, although few countries are ready to give her asylum. The government also acquiesced that it will not contest the filing of an appeal for review in the apex court. Government also settled to free all the protesters. The right-wing leaders who issued statements castigating army and Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa also apologized for those proclamations.

Saif-ul- Mulook the lawyer of Asia Bibi had gone out of country as there was danger to his life. Mulook claimed that besides religious fanatics, he also has danger from the lawyers’ community; nonetheless he offered to represent Asia’s case provided army provides security to him and his family members.

The life of Asia Bibi is also in danger as the extremists have already threatened to annihilate her. According to Christian community she is at a secret location under the safe custody of security agencies.

The Human Right activists point out that Pakistan government’s action was too little too late against the Islamic fanatics who were demanding death sentence to Asia Bibi. The lassitude of government has strengthened the resolve of extremists and they took the country to ransom. The bowing down of the government to Islamic zealots and frenzied protests has further tarnished the image of Pakistan in civilized world. The Christians especially Catholics condemned Pakistan for the death sentence to Asia Bibi. A catholic charity organisation namely Aid to the Church in Need (ACN) held prayers for the safety and release of Asia in United Kingdom.

Pakistan which is on the verge of economic collapse should chalk out a comprehensive plan so that the country can be saved from economic disaster and the Prime Minister of the country should not visit friendly countries with a begging bowl. Islamabad needs $12 billion immediately to repay the loans and strengthen the foreign reserve which has dwindled to $8 billion, which is insufficient to repay the loan and pay the rising imports bills. Imran Khan also attended Saudi investment conference, which was boycotted by several countries because of murder of Saudi journalist in Istanbul. The Saudi government granted Pakistan $6 billion and Abu Dhabi and Beijing will also assist Islamabad. The powerful deep state took Pakistan on the verge of economic collapse and now compelled the civilian prime minister to visit friendly countries for beseeching bailout packages. Unfortunately Pakistan is wasting time and energy in nursing diverse terrorist outfits to carryout terrorist activities in India and Afghanistan. The government should utilise these scarce resources in the development of the country.

The condition of minorities in Pakistan is pitiable and the religious fanatics are using blasphemy laws to curb minorities and compel them to accept Islam. Churches and temples are systematically desecrated and young girls of minority community are abducted and converted to Islam. According to Farahnaz Ispahani, in 1947 Pakistan’s 23 percent population was non-Muslim, however now it is reduced to 3 percent which includes Ahmadiyyas also. In 1947 Ahmadiyyas were Muslims in Pakistan. Farahnaz Ispahani is wife of Hussain Haqqani and a Pakistani American writer. Pakistan must give full right to their minorities as its image in the world is diminishing because of their maltreatment. The annual reports of United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) also criticised Pakistan for religious persecution and the blasphemy laws.

The analysts claim that after suppressing minorities the Sunni extremists are killing Shia Muslims. Few Sunni organisations including Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Jundallah, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan carried out terrorist activities in Shia mosques, Dargahs and their religious places, in which large number of Shia Muslims were exterminated. The analysts mention that extremism has no place in this civilized world hence Pakistan government should adopt stringent measures so that furtherance of radicalisation is stopped and efforts should be made to deradicalize the persons who are already radicalised.

The analysts also claim that if persecution of minorities continues in the country, the day is not far-off when all minorities would be exterminated in Pakistan. Once all minorities are converted, then there will be fight between Sunnis and Shias and subsequently different factions of Sunnis will fight for supremacy.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

SOUTH ASIA MONITOR

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Pakistan should be wary of Chinese designs in Gilgit & Baltistan

Islamabad is not averse to the idea of China getting some control in the area as PoGB is a Shia majority area which seeks to secede from Pakistan, writes J K Verma for South Asia Monitor

By J K Verma  SEP 27, 2018

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The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s dream project. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which will pass through Pakistan Occupied Gilgit-Baltistan (PoGB), is a significant segment of BRI. Pakistan, currently passing through a difficult economic phase, acknowledges PoGB as a ‘disputed area’ while China, which has assured investment of over $ 46 billion in CPEC, is reluctant to invest in a ‘disputed area’.

Pakistan’s economic condition has deteriorated to a point where it must seek a bailout from Saudi Arabia and China, instead of the International Monetary Fund, to overcome its precarious economic situation. In 2018, the United States suspended aid twice; Pakistan is not getting foreign direct investment (FDI) because it is considered a terrorist state, remittances from Pakistani workers abroad have come down and exports are also not increasing compared to rising imports.

Pakistan, under pressure from China, passed the “Gilgit-Baltistan Order 2018” (GB Order) in May. The order seized the PoGB government’s powers and transferred them to the Prime Minister. It is an important step to alter the status of PoGB and declare it as Pakistan’s fifth province. The special powers were taken and the PoGB Chief Court was re-designated as the High Court. India’s Ministry of External Affairs lodged a strong protest and local people also demonstrated in and outside PoGB against this order.

Residents of PoGB are resisting CPEC as they feel it is a ploy of the Punjabi -dominated Sunni government to subjugate the region. Punjabis and Pathans would be settled in PoGB under the guise of constructing multifarious projects. Local people will not get employment and are likely to be rejected on grounds that they are not technically qualified. PoGB is the only area in Sunni-dominated Pakistan that has a Shia majority; hence Islamabad wants to change the demography of the region, by settling more Sunni Muslims there.

PoGB is crucial because of its strategic location and water and energy reserves. Islamabad had given little importance to PoGB, although it is five times bigger than Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and important rivers emanate from there. Only 1.8 million people live in PoGB, which is spread over 72,971 sq. kms, hence it has vast, unutilized land and resources.  

China agreed to construct two dams, at Bunji and Diamer-Bhasha, on the Indus to generate electricity. Both Pakistan and China plan to exploit the untapped water resources and agricultural potential of PoGB. The population of Pakistan is exploding and it requires more arable land, while China also needs more agricultural land to feed its population. China emerged as the biggest importer of food items in 2017.

China also wants to strengthen its military presence in PoGB, which borders both Afghanistan and the disturbed Xinjiang autonomous region. The Uighur Muslims have revolted against repressive Chinese government policies against Muslims. Some Pakistani and Afghan terrorist outfits are assisting Uighur secessionists in the name of Islam. Afghan terrorists also use PoGB. Although Pakistan wants to control these Islamic terrorist outfits, so far they have not taken any stringent action against them. Uighur secessionist groups are also against CPEC, as they claim China wants to settle increasing numbers of Han Chinese in the region, with the malafide intention of changing the region’s demography.

Islamabad is not averse to the idea of the Chinese getting some control in the area as PoGB is a Shia majority area which seeks to secede from Pakistan. Meanwhile Abdul Hamid Khan, Chairman of the Balawaristan National Front (BNF), said in an interview that residents of PoGB want to secede from Pakistan and merge with India.

China wants to control PoGB so that it can eliminate terrorist outfits assisting Uighur secessionists. First, China will deploy its forces in PoGB to control terrorist organisations and, once it gets a foothold there, will never vacate the area. China, which considers India as its potential enemy and is making efforts to encircle India, would want to control the strategically located PoGB.

Pakistan should be careful about China’s unholy designs. Beijing, which has deep pockets, is constructing mega infrastructure projects in economically weaker countries. Chinese companies take contracts for these projects at inflated prices, while China also provides loans to these countries. When they are unable to repay their loans, China takes over the territory of these strategic projects. Sri Lanka lost Hambantota port; China occupied Myanmar’s Coco Islands and Pakistan has already lost Gwadar port. Beijing will also occupy the arable land and exploit the mineral and water resources of PoGB.

Islamabad should therefore stop assisting terrorist outfits and curtail its defence expenditure and divert that money for the welfare of its people and try to overcome its economic problems. Undue dependence on China will prove disastrous for Pakistan.

(The author is a Delhi-based strategic analyst. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

AGNI

STUDIES iN iNTERNATIONAL sTRATEGIC iSSUES 

FORUM FOR STRATEGIC & SECURITY STUDIES 

vOV.xxi, nO.ii mAY 2018- aUGUST 2018 

Gilgit and Baltistan would be converted as fifth province of Pakistan

Gilgit-Baltistan government after repealing Gilgit Baltistan Empowerment and self-Governance Order of 2009 promulgated Gilgit-Baltistan Order 2018 with ulterior motive of declaring GB as fifth state of Pakistan. Islamabad was forced to promulgate GB order 2018 under pressure from China as Beijing was reluctant to invest $50 billion on disputed territory. India lodged strong protest against this illegal act of Islamabad. There were strong protests by the residents of GB against the order as it usurps all the powers of GB legislature and gives it to Prime Minister. Although Pakistan’s Kashmir centric policies kept GB in oblivion nonetheless it is more important than POK and Pakistan is dependent on GB for water, energy and security. The majority population of GB is Shias while Pakistan has Sunni majority hence GB remained neglected. China which has emerged as one of the biggest exporter in the world will exploit the untouched mineral resources of GB as well as of Balochistan.  Pakistan which is passing through an economic crisis is in no position to annoy China and Beijing slowly and steadily occupy not only Gwadar port but fertile land of Punjab and mineral resources and arable land of GB. Unfortunately the present rulers of Pakistan are not thinking in long run and expansionist China has entrapped economically bankrupt Pakistan.

Gilgit and Baltistan Order 2018

Gilgit-Baltistan government on 21^st, May 2018 repealed “Gilgit Baltistan Empowerment and self-Governance Order of 2009 “and promulgated “Gilgit-Baltistan Order 2018” (GB Order). The GB order was also approved by Pakistan Cabinet, National Security Council as well as by puppet Gilgit Baltistan Legislative Assembly and a notification was issued on 22^nd May, 2018. The draconian order has usurped all the powers of GB Council including legislative powers pertaining to tourism, hydropower and minerals and transferred them to the Prime Minister of Pakistan. The GB order 2018 which will convert GB as fifth province had to be passed at this stage because of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). An important segment of CPEC which links Gwadar to Kashgar (China) passes from GB although most of the details of CPEC are still not disclosed but the information coming out in public domain makes it abundantly clear that GB order 2018 was passed under pressure from China. (1)

The federal taxes are suspended and the name of GB Legislative Assembly is changed to GB Assembly. The special powers were withdrawn and made it equal to the other four provincial assemblies under IV schedule of Pakistan constitution. The Chief Court of GB is renamed as High Court and the Chief Judge of GB Supreme Appellate Court would be a retired judge of Pakistan Supreme Court. (2)

India lodged stern protest on GB Order

Government of India took a stringent view on passing of illegitimate GB Order 2018 and grabbing the powers of Gilgit Baltistan Legislative Council with malafide intention of making a ground to convert GB into fifth province of Pakistan. Ministry of External Affairs immediately summoned the Deputy High Commissioner of Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi at South Block and lodged a forceful protest for passing this illegal order. Ministry of External Affairs emphatically made it clear that whole of Jammu & Kashmir is an integral part of India as Maharaja Hari Singh, ruler of the princely state of J&K signed the Instrument of Accession on 26^th October, 1947 and Pakistani forces are illegally occupying some portion of J&K including Gilgit and Baltistan. As the occupation of Pakistan is illegitimate it has no right to change the existing state of affairs and it must handover all areas of J&K which is in its illegitimate occupation. Pakistan also called India’s Deputy High Commissioner in Islamabad and rejected India’s claim that complete J&K belongs to India. The demarche mentioned that J&K is a disputed area and India’s claim is “baseless”.  (1)

GB Order was passed under Chinese pressure

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an important part of one Belt and one Road Initiative (BRI) and it passes through Gilgit and Baltistan which Pakistan accepts a disputed area. At present the economic condition of Pakistan is precarious, United States has suspended the financial assistance, export is dwindling while import is enhancing, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is not coming, as Pakistan’s reputation in world arena has considerably dwindled because of its assistance to diverse terrorist outfits. Remittances by expatriate Pakistanis from oil producing countries, which was an important source of foreign currency has dropped significantly because of drastic cut in crude oil prices. In this difficult time China’s promised investment of more than $ 50 billion dollars in CPEC is a big relief for Islamabad. Pakistani leaders have propagated that this huge investment will unravel its economic afflictions.

China watchers assert that Beijing pressurised Pakistan to change the status of GB so that it can make such huge investment, consequently Islamabad passed GB-Order 2018 and soon GB will be declared as fifth province of Pakistan.  Chinese spokesperson avoided making any direct comment and simply stated that CPEC is only an economic project and China’s position towards Kashmir is unaffected. Kashmir issue is a bilateral issue and it has to be decided between India and Pakistan.

Beijing is very keen that Delhi also joins BRI as India was the first country which had not accepted CPEC. India has taken a very rational stand that CPEC is passing through the areas of J&K which are integral part of India and Islamabad is illegal occupant and has no lawful status on these areas. After objection from India other countries are also rejecting BRI as they feel that BRI will make China very powerful as it is less economic and more a strategic project.

Protests against the order

GB Order 2018 is not passed by parliament and it is a Presidential Order which was passed in rush and no worthwhile debate was occurred. The powers of Prime Minister on GB are not specified and for the public of GB it is an eye-wash and passed in hurry to please Chinese.

The residents of GB also protested against the order and leaders and workers of all political parties, lawyers and civil right activists joined the demonstrations and shouted slogans against Central government as well as against the marionette government of GB. The demonstrators carried placards, posters and banners criticizing the government for seizing the powers of GB legislative Council with ulterior motive of merging GB with Pakistan and converting it into the fifth province. The demonstrators clashed with police and security personnel resorted to lathi charge and use of teargas shells to disperse the demonstrators. In the scuffle with security forces several demonstrators were injured.

The populace of GB particularly the students residing in twin-city of Islamabad and Rawalpindi also organised a demonstration in front of National Press Club, Islamabad under the auspices of Gilgit-Baltistan Council of the Quaid-e-Azam University. The demonstrators complained about the illegal occupation of their land by residents of other provinces especially of Punjab province. The demonstrators shouted anti-Pakistan slogans and mentioned that it was a ‘black law’ which will convert GB into a satellite of Pakistan and both China and Pakistan will exploit the valuable resources of the mineral rich GB.

Pakistan claims that under UN Security Council Resolution, J&K is a disputed area and the final decision can only be taken after free and impartial plebiscite under the aegis of United Nations. Nonetheless plebiscite could not be held, because Pakistan has not full-filled the first stipulation i.e. total withdrawal of Pakistani troops from J&K. As plebiscite could not be held hence even according to Pakistan whole of J&K remains a disputed area hence Islamabad has no right to amalgamate GB in Pakistan.

In March 2017 British Parliament discussed a motion captioned “Annexation of Gilgit-Baltistan by Pakistan as its fifth frontier” condemned Pakistan’s capricious attempt to merge Gilgit Baltistan as one province although it is a disputed area. British Parliament also passed a resolution mentioning that “Gilgit-Baltistan is a legal and constitutional part of the state of Jammu and Kashmir India, which is illegally occupied by Pakistan since 1947.” The motion also criticised the attempt of Pakistan to change the demography of the area and construction of CPEC is also illegal. (4)

India is protesting against illegal construction by China in GB from 1960 nevertheless this is the first time when India made it a bilateral issue with China. Delhi’s objections took GB in the limelight as it was more or less forgotten in the Kashmir rhetoric. In fact Kashmir was highlighted more because both sides were dominated by Kashmiri leaders and Leh, Lakakh and GB were inaccessible.

The residents of GB mention that CPEC is neither in interest of Pakistan nor is beneficial to GB. Chief Minister of GB was dropped from the list of outsized delegation went to  China to take part in One Belt, One Road (OBOR) forum while all other four chief ministers accompanied the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. No representation from GB from where CPEC will pass indicates that Punjabi dominated Federal government of Pakistan will exploit the resources of GB without giving its lawful dues. The meet was quite important as it was attended by 27 heads of states and several agreements and memorandum of understanding (MoUs) were signed pertaining to CPEC projects. The residents of GB criticised and condemned federal as well GB government for this unwarranted action. The opposition leaders claimed that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa got its entitlement after numerous protests. Federal government had not given place to GB in the delegation as Islamabad does not trust GB and secondly the CPEC is not in the interest of local public. The details of CPEC are not made to public so far on the name of security and the public of GB is not aware what will be there share in transit charges and the compensation they will get for building the infrastructure projects in GB. They also point out that large number of migrants from other provinces of Pakistan will come to GB and settle in GB on the name of construction of large projects. These projects would not generate employment for the residents of GB as the Punjabi dominated administration will claim that the inhabitants of GB lack requisite expertise to work in these mega projects. This large scale settlement will change the demography of GB which suits the federal government. (5)

Secessionist movement of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang Region

The restive Xinjiang autonomous region which is mineral rich and strategically significant is giving trouble to China as Balochistan is creating problems for Pakistan. The borders of GB touches Xinjiang region of China where Uighur Muslims are fighting for an independent nation. The sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has created diverse terrorist outfits to carryout terrorist activities in India and Afghanistan. The terrorist outfits were created on name of Islam and leaders and followers of these outfits are fanatic Muslims. After sometimes leaders of few terrorist organisations realised that Pakistan government is working against Islam hence they refused to obey the dictates of ISI and started terrorist activities in Pakistan while few terrorist outfits also started giving assistance to Uighur Muslims in their fight for an independent Muslim country.  

The mainstream population of Xinjiang is Uighur Muslims and they constituted several outfits including Turkistan Islamic Party, United Revolutionary Front of East Turkistan, Uighur Liberation Organisation and East Turkistan Liberation Organisation however the most powerful organisation is East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). All these organisations are combating for an independent Muslim country. Few terrorist organisations of Pakistan are imparting weapons training, religious discourses and are also providing shelter against Chinese government operations. According to intelligence reports few Muslim countries on their own as well as on behest of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) are also giving financial assistance to Uighur secessionist outfits.

The grievances of Uighurs are legitimate and undisputable but Beijing is suppressing Uighur movement with iron-fist and has settled large number of Han Chinese in the region with ulterior motive of changing the demography of the region. China has put copious ruthless restrictions on the religious activities of Muslims including no fasting in Ramadan, no beards, several mosques and madrassas were closed. In fact few restrictions are ridiculous and degrading.  The Imams of the mosques who had fundamental leanings were imprisoned.  Uighur Muslims claim that China is destroying Islam systematically hence they have to fight for establishment of an independent country. However now the problem in Xinjiang region has become volatile as hundreds of Uighurs who had gone to Iraq and Syria are returning to the province after Islamic State was crushed. These hardened, well trained fanatic Muslims are creating trouble for China. The problem can be assessed with the fact that a dictatorial state of China has employed Academi an American private military company to defend its investments in the region. The Academi was previously known as Xe Services but its original name was Blackwater Security which was started in 1997 by former Navy SEAL officer Erik Prince. Academi renders security services to US Federal government on a contractual basis. (6)

Xinjiang region and GB shares the borders and CPEC also links both the areas hence China has put stringent restrictions on Uighur Muslims so that there is no uprising in the region.  Few ETIM leaders have taken refuge in GB and carrying out terrorist activities from there. Uighurs claim that CPEC is not in their interest hence threatened to disrupt its construction.

On the other hand China which is the most populous nation in the world has less arable land hence emerged as the biggest importer of food items. GB has an area of 72,971 Sq KMs while the population is only 1,800,000 in 2015. This mineral rich area has mountainous terrain and has many attractions for the tourists. China has constructed 7,000 megawatt dam at Bunji and also involved in several other construction projects. The analysts assert that China will occupy arable land as well as other areas of GB under flimsy pretexts. (7)

Significance of Gilgit & Baltistan

The leaders of GB claim that their forefathers defeated the forces of Dogra king and liberated the area but Punjabi dominated Pakistan does not consider them Pakistanis. They are exploited by Federal government and all the rights of the legislative council of GB are seized. The speakers threatened that if the problem of GB is not resolved they will launch an agitation.

Pakistan’s Kashmir centric policies kept GB in oblivion nonetheless it is more important than POK and Pakistan is dependent on GB for water, energy and security. The dependence of Islamabad on GB would enhance as there is population explosion in the country and because of acute water shortage the agriculture production and arable land will shrink and Pakistan would have to utilise resources of GB. China is also eyeing on the under utilised resources of GB and as Pakistan’s reliance on Beijing is increasing Islamabad will be compelled to give prime importance to Chinese interests. Besides Chinese interests Pakistan will declare GB as the fifth province of the country to keep its long term benefits in view. Islamabad claims that the residents of GB also want to merge with Pakistan. (8)

Gilgit-Baltistan which was previously known as Northern Areas is sensitive and strategically located. Its borders touch Pakistan Occupied Kashmir in south, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in west, Afghanistan in north, restive province of Xinjiang in east and northeast and Jammu & Kashmir in southeast. United Nations Security Council Resolution of 1947 mentions that Gilgit & Baltistan, POK, Aksai Chin, Shaksgam Valley, Jammu, Ladakh and Kashmir valley all are part of Kashmir. In 1970 Islamabad created Northern Areas after amalgamating Gilgit Agency, Baltistan, Hunza, Nagar and several other princely states. In 2009 its name was changed to Gilgit & Baltistan and some autonomy was given but Islamabad retained the real powers and Governor used these powers on behalf of Central government. (9)

The areas of Kashmir illegally occupied by Pakistan are divided into GB and POK although international attention is focused on POK but GB is five times bigger than POK. The Indus River before entering Pakistan passes from GB and Siachin Glacier from where most of the rivers originate is also part of GB. Pakistan can construct dams and other infrastructure projects easily in GB as it is thinly populated. Beijing has agreed to construct two important dams on Indus River at Bunji and Diamer-Bhasha to produce electricity. The World Bank and Asian Development Banks have refused to finance these dams because GB is a disputed area and major dams would damage the ecology of the area. The local residents have opposed the construction as well as acquisition of their land as they mentioned that these projects are not beneficial to them. (10)

GB is also important strategically, without control over GB it is difficult to protect POK. Both POK and GB combined safeguards Pakistan. GB also provides Pakistan land access to China through the Karakoram Highway and denies India land contact to Afghanistan. 

Pakistan’s step-motherly treatment to GB

Pakistan continued talking about Kashmir but dealt GB differently than POK. Although both POK and GB were under Ministry of Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit Baltistan but Islamabad kept several glaring differences between the two.  Firstly POK is governed by Azad Jammu and Kashmir Interim Constitution Act, 1974 (AJKIC), while GB is governed by informal laws. Needless to say that constitution provides few safeguards to residents of POK which are unavailable to inhabitants of GB. POK’s Interim Constitution was passed by Legislative Assembly of POK while GB orders are passed by Pakistan government. POK council has 14 members out of which six are from outside while GB Council has fifteen members and out of which eight are from outside. Prime Minister of Pakistan is the chairperson of both the councils. (11)

The residents of GB were given right to cast vote only in 2009 under Empowerment and Self-rule Order just to appease the masses who were becoming restless due to discrimination and exploitation. However GB was not given any representation in Pakistan National Assembly and Senate. (12)

Islam is the state religion is clearly mentioned in POK while this clause is missing in GB, may be because Pakistan is an Islamic country and Islamabad erroneously considers that GB is its part hence religion was not mentioned. GB Council has no power on the roads declared as of ‘strategic importance’ by Islamabad and government can acquire private land for construction of power plants and roads. The legislative assembly of GB has no power on mineral and water resources and it cannot enact laws on these subjects. (13)

The president and officials of POK reaffirm their loyalty and its merger with Pakistan while in GB it is not mentioned which indicates that GB is considered to be merged with Pakistan. The POK residents have some special rights which are not provided to the residents of GB. The term AZAD in the name of POK denotes that it is independent while GB lacks even this symbolism.  Pakistan is constantly exploiting the mineral resources of GB but not spending enough money on its development consequently GB has become one of the most underdeveloped areas of Pakistan. GB’s per capita income is just one third of Pakistan and in this also the migrant populations in GB have much more income than the local GB residents. Pakistan has kept these glaring differences with ulterior motive as Islamabad can declare GB as part of Pakistan or as disputed territory as per the requirement.  (14)

The majority population of GB is Shias while majority in Pakistan are Sunnis and after advent of Islamic State and enhanced rivalry between Wahabi Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran,  the divide between Shias and Sunnis have augmented manifold all over the world including Pakistan. In Pakistan several Sunni outfits including Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Ahl-e-Sunnat-Wal-Jammat, Jundallah, Sipah-e-Sahaba, Lashkar-e-Omar claim that Shias are not true Muslims and they should be exterminated. These Sunni outfits also carried out several terrorist activities in Shia mosques and other gatherings in which large number of Shias were killed. Shias have also constituted few extremist Shia organisations to fight Sunni organisations. These organisations include Sipah-e-Muhammad Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Jafaria, Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen, Shia Ulema Council and Imamia Students Organisation.  The people of GB lack legal status, there is no economic development of the region and not only this, Sunni dominated army, intelligence organisations and corrupt bureaucracy is exploiting the helpless masses of the region. The residents of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are settling in GB and it may be possible that after few years they may change the demography of the area.

Conclusion

GB has links with Xinjiang and is also exposed to unstable Afghan-Pakistan border hence restive Afghanistan also gets access to rebellious Xinjiang region. This linkage gives China a pretext to increase its armed forces in GB to protect Xinjiang where Uighur Muslims are already fighting for an independent country. Besides it China which has emerged as one of the biggest exporter in the world needs lot of mineral resources to increase its exports. GB is not only mineral rich but is full of hydro-electric power resources and it also provides China entrance to Arabian Sea. China can also get access in mineral rich Balochistan and Afghanistan through GB. China’s presence in these areas would also provide Beijing leverage against India. Indian intelligence organisations must keep an eye on increasing influence of China in the region. (15)

The analysts claim that Islamabad lacks full control over GB as well as on Balochistan hence it considers that, if China which is permanent member of UN Security Council, invests huge amount in GB and Balochistan it will also empower Islamabad and will give more legitimacy to it.  China which does not care much about human rights, environment and crushes the local people with iron fist will safeguard Islamabad from international condemnation including India.

The merger of GB will please China as its investment will become more secure and it will also help financially starved Pakistan but Islamabad is not realising the long-term repercussions of this move. First of all it will weaken its bargaining power with India about Kashmir as it is blatant disregard of his own position which considers J&K as a disputed territory.  Islamabad’s utter disregard of Anglo-American countries in the hope that China will rescue Pakistan at all occasions may prove detrimental for the country in long run. Once GB becomes the fifth state of Pakistan the residents of GB will take their cases in Supreme Court of Pakistan which will make the acquisition of land for massive construction difficult as well as time-consuming.

Pakistan’s efforts of converting GB into its fifth province also indicate Islamabad’s complete dependence on China and it also indicates that Islamabad can go up to any extent to please China. Both China and Pakistan have vital interests in GB. The analysts feel that even in future if China will be forced to relinquish or curtail CPEC it will not leave GB and Pakistan will also make efforts to merge it. China will increase its military presence in GB under the disguise of construction of mega infrastructural projects and later about the maintenance and safety of these projects. China will also insist to have extra forces on the name of counter-insurgency operations and to curb terrorist outfits extending assistance to Uighur terrorists. GB is the only Shia dominated area in a Sunni majority Pakistan hence Islamabad may also not resist China’s occupation of some areas of GB. Islamabad does not have full control over GB because of its inaccessibility, continuous exploitation and anti-people policies, as federal government failed to have complete control over GB, now it wants that China with more resources assist Islamabad to control the area. Unfortunately Pakistan does not comprehend that China being a communist country has expansionist policies and will like to exploit virgin land, unexploited minerals and abundant water resources of GB. China is too powerful for Pakistan to evict its forces from GB and once it will start exploiting virgin resources of GB it will occupy it forever.

There were conflicts between India and Pakistan in 1980 over Siachen Glacier and again in 1999 forces of both the countries fought in Kargil when Pakistani forces entered Indian areas and captured few strategic places so that they can obstruct Srinagar Leh Highway. Pakistan’s efforts to capture areas in this sector highlight the importance of GB. Although India accepted Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa as part of Pakistan but it will never leave POK and GB.

Punjab centric Federal government formulates policies to benefit Punjab province and in this process the federal government exploits assets of Balochistan, POK as well as GB. Mangla Dam was constructed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but it benefits Punjab province more. Islamabad also uses Islam to fulfill the interests of Punjab province. Pakistan has aroused religious sentiments in Kashmir with ulterior motive of creating trouble for India and controls the rivers as they originate from Kashmir and serve Punjab. In Pakistan diverse Muslim nationalities reside but excluding Punjabis all are unhappy and claim that they are not only exploited but are treated as second rate citizens.

Pakistan, which was created dissecting India, nourish anti-India feelings and allege that India helped residents of East Pakistan in creating Bangladesh. Pakistani army which claims itself as saviour of Pakistan declares to take revenge from India. It also claims that Kashmir is unfinished agenda of 1947 partition hence army controlled ISI infiltrating terrorists in the valley and creating trouble in India. Pakistan has already handed over some parts of Kashmir to China and as things are moving China will soon occupy some strategic areas of GB also. Pakistan mistakenly believes that China will favour Islamabad in Kashmir but China will make itself stronger in GB, will exploit mineral resources of GB and Balochistan which will be detrimental for Pakistan in future. 

Pakistan watchers claim that Gilgit and Baltistan Order 2018 is master stroke of the present government. On one hand it pleased China and on the other hand pro-Kashmir, anti-India and pro-China lobbies are also happy. General elections in Pakistan are already announced and will be held on July 25^th and the present Pakistan Muslim League (N) expects to garner support of the voters. The analysts also claim that Pakistan policy planners believe that India will object this move and it will not be fully ratified. Hence federal government without losing anything will earn the goodwill of masses. Pakistan’s total dependence on China economically, internationally and for acquiring weapons, technology and infrastructure projects will be harmful for a sovereign nation. It is in interest of Pakistan to comprehend it before it becomes too late.

Although Pakistan has passed GB order 2018 as a first step in declaring GB as fifth province of Pakistan but it will not be an easy task as it means that GB is detached with Kashmir as latter is a disputed area. Secondly it will need constitutional amendments as well as complete change in Pakistan’s Kashmir policy. Moreover India can also adopt same strategy and can integrate J&K with rest of India. There is a strong lobby in India which advocates revocation of article 370 as well as Article 35 A and complete merger of J&K with India and after the unification India can try to take POK and other parts of Kashmir which are under illegal occupation of Pakistan since 1947.

Pakistan claims Kashmir as disputed area hence it continuously infiltrate terrorists in J&K once Pakistan amalgamates GB and India merges J&K it will be difficult for Islamabad to send infiltrators to the valley. Islamabad has talked so much about Kashmir in international arena as well within Pakistan that it will be difficult for it to withdraw from it completely that too under Chinese pressure. Kashmir separatists in India also rejected the idea of merger of GB in Pakistan and Islamabad will not like to annoy Kashmiri separatists as ISI has invested lot of money and resources in them. Not only this Pakistani army which claims itself as the saviour of Pakistan also declares that India is bleeding in Kashmir and merger of GB will affect its macho image. (16)

End Notes

(1) Priyanka Singh: Severing Gilgit Baltistan’s Kasmir link  Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses  April 19, 201

(2) India protests Pakistan’s illegal order on Gilgit-Baltistan: https://www.newdelhitimes.com/

(3) J.K.Verma  “Pakistan Tries to merge Gilgit And Baltistan” https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/pakistan-tries-to-merge-gilgit-and-baltistan

(4) UK Parliament Condemns Pakistan for Declaring Gilgit-Baltistan as its fifth state. Dated 25.03.2017 HuffPost India

(5) Ghulam Abbas : GB chief minister dropped from list of PM’s delegation to China , 12 May 2017.

(6) Academi- Wikipedia

      (7)Gilgit- Baltistan From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(8)Vikas Kumar: India’s Gilgit-Baltistan Problem-Part One: Pakistan’s dependence on Gilgit Baltistan 11 July 2017

(9) Op cit no.4

(10) Op cit no.1

(11) Op cit no.8

(12) Op cit no.10

(13) Op cit no.11

(14) Ibid

(15) Ibid

(16) Op cit no.12

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Home » Spotlight » Path-breaking 2+2 dialogue: India US sign COMCASA 

Path-Breaking 2+2 Dialogue: India US Sign COMCASA 

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By J K Verma

New Delhi. 06 September 2018. Once again US reaffirmed the strategic importance of India’s designation as a Major Defense Partner (MDP) of the United States and committed to expand the scope of India’s MDP status and take mutually agreed upon steps to strengthen defense ties further and promote better defense and security coordination and cooperation.

The path-breaking twice postponed 2+2 dialogue between External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defence James Mattis was held in New Delhi. As a special gesticulation, both Sushma Swaraj and Nirmala Sitharaman, received the visiting dignitaries at the airport.

The deeply awaited Communication, Compatibility, Security Agreement (COMCASA) was signed. The agreement will further strengthen, India US relations, as US has already designated India as a “Major Defence Partner” in 2016. The COMCASA agreement would entitle India to purchase high-tech military equipments from United States. India has already signed Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016 and COMCASA in 2018. Now India needs to sign third and last, Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA).

After signing COMCASA, Indian armed forces got access into sensitive and highly-protected secure communication pertaining to American platforms purchased by Indian armed forces. These sensitive platforms are also related to various airplanes including C-130-J, P81, C-17, Chinook and Apache helicopters.  Both sides agreed to make changes in the agreement, as per Indian requirements, hence its name is changed from Communication and Information on Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) to COMCASA.

The Trump administration also gave STA-1 (Strategic Trade Authorization-1) status to India which indicates the importance US administration confers to India. After signing the agreement, India can also buy armed Sea Guardian drones. USA has not sold these drones to any country outside NATO so far. After the agreement both countries can also share intelligence in time of need.  India was hesitant to sign the pact because there was doubt that US may be able to track down the Indian warships and aircraft fitted with COMCASA protected weapons.

US is also concerned that its high technology military-sensitive equipments may not fall in Russian or Chinese hands. India bought weapons worth $ 15 billion from US in last decade and US has emerged as the second biggest supplier of arms and ammunition to India after Russia.

The negotiations between both the countries were lingering from last ten years but the agreement was not inked. The COMCASA, which comes in the force immediately, will be valid for 10 years. The analysts mention that after signing the agreement, India will lose its operational independence and it will also endanger time-tested old and strong military ties with Russia. After signing COMCASA Indian access to Russian armaments would be restricted.

It was also decided to establish hot-lines between External and Defence Ministers of both the countries. Mike Pompeo also promised to help India to gain the membership of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the litigious issue of H1B visa was also discussed.

Indian side also conversed about the purchase of Iranian oil and S-400 Triumf, which was previously known as S-300 PMU-3, is an anti-aircraft weapon system developed in Russia in1990. India is negotiating for five systems at a total cost of about $5.5 billion.

Iran supplied 18.4 million tonnes of crude oil to India between April 2017 and January 2018 as it is the third largest oil supplier to India after Iraq and Saudi Arabia. India pays for Iranian oil in Euros and also supplies articles like wheat, soybean and other consumer goods in lieu of oil. Hence it will be difficult for India to stop oil import from Iran. However Pompeo made it clear that India should make sharp reductions in purchase of oil from Iran. However he had not mentioned any specific quantity. Sushma Swaraj mentioned about Indian dependence on energy import. In the press conference Pompeo made it clear that sanctions will be imposed from November four but some waiver may be worked out. US Secretary of State while talking to American media mentioned that US will try to avoid putting sanctions on the purchase of Russian S-400 by India.

Pompeo and Mattis came to India after visiting Islamabad. Few days before their visit to Pakistan, US announced suspension of $300 million, military support funds to Pakistan as it has not stopped assisting Afghan Taliban, who are incessantly attacking US led NATO troops and Afghan troops. Not only are this, Taliban taking shelter in Pakistan. Analysts claim that US administration announced suspension of aid few days before the visit of Pompeo and Mattis, just to give a stern message to Pakistan that it must stop assisting Taliban. This is the second important cut in 2018. These announcements of aid cuts generated lot of anti-American sentiments in media and public but the government had not issued anti- American statements.

Pompeo made it clear that US does not want to stay in Afghanistan forever, hence there must be negotiations with Taliban, so that a political settlement can be reached. Zalmay Khalilzad, a former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, also travelled with him and soon he will join the Trump administration as a special envoy in Afghanistan. Khalilzad, will monitor the peace-negotiations with Taliban. US administration is determined to end insurgency in Afghanistan and is aware that Pakistan is in position to bring Taliban on negotiation table. However, now Trump administration has taken much stringent posture towards Pakistan as it feels that Islamabad is deceiving US from last several years.

US has confirmed evidences that Afghan terrorists have bases in Pakistan and are taking shelter there. Recently they attacked Ghazni an important Afghan city, near Pakistan border and after attack Afghan Taliban returned to Pakistan for treatment and burial. During negotiations US ministers were insisting on Pakistan to stop assistance to Taliban and press them to start negotiation, while Pakistan side continuously stressed that US is favouring India against Pakistan.

Indian Minister of External Affairs also stressed on the need of Afghan-led and Afghan controlled peace-negotiations. In India lot of discussions were held on terrorism especially about the cross-border terrorism. The joint statement mentioned that “The ministers denounced any use of terrorist proxies in the region, and in this context, they called on Pakistan to ensure that the territory under its control is not used to launch terrorist attacks on other countries.” The joint statement also urged Pakistan to accelerate the cases against the executioners of terrorist attacks in Mumbai, Pathankot and Uri as well as those who are mastermind of other cross-border terrorism.

The Ministers also welcomed the bilateral negotiations, so that other terrorist outfits namely Al Qaeda, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Toiba (L-e-T), Jaish-e-Mohammad (J-e-M), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), D-Company and their splinter groups can also be declared as international terrorist outfits.

The Prime Minister, Narendra Modi meets the US Secretary of State, Michael R. Pompeo and the US Secretary of Defence, James Mattis.

A tri-service exercise between both the countries would also commence from next year. The amphibious exercise will also include Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR). Besides this the defence ministers also decided to negotiate on Industrial Security Annex (ISA), which will further enhance defence cooperation and collaboration. The ISA will be helpful as India has opened the defence sector for private business enterprises.

Both sides also discussed about cooperation in High Seas mainly on Indo-Pacific, which indirectly means China. The growing India-US relations can also be seen with relation of rising Chinese influence in the region. The visiting ministers also met Prime Minister Modi for about an hour.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Imran Khan Takes Over As The Prime Minister Of Pakistan

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Courtesy: Twitter@PTI

• Difficult innings for ‘Kaptan sahib’
• Imran is in no position to formulate policy towards India

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 18 August 2018. Imran Khan Chief of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), who is also known as, ‘Taliban Khan’ because of his leanings towards terrorists and extremists, took oath  of the Prime Minister of Pakistan . His party PTI emerged as single largest party, in National Assembly by winning 116 seats in the elections held on 25 July, with overt and covert assistance of Deep State. After swearing in ceremony he assured that there will be ‘strict accountability’ and the plundered wealth of the country will be retrieved.

On 17 August, in an election for top post, Imran Khan defeated Shahbaz Sharif of Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) by securing 176 votes in the 342 members National Assembly. Shahbaz Sharif could secure only 96 votes. The election for the Prime Ministership became a formality when Bilawal Bhutto, Chairman of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which has 54 seats in National Assembly, decided that PPP will not participate in the elections. Analysts claim, that Pakistan court has already issued non-bailable warrant against Asif Ali Zardari, Co-Chairman of PPP and father of Bilawal Bhutto in a money-laundering case, just to force PPP to accept the dictates of Deep State.

As expected, Khan was supported by few smaller parties including Muttahida Quami Movement, Pakistan Muslim League, Grand Democratic Alliance, Balochistan Awami Party, Balochistan National Party, Awami Muslim League and Jamori Watan Party.

Courtesy : Geo TV

Khan always gave pro-terrorist statements. In 2012 when extremists attacked Malala Yousafzai, he declined to condemn the attackers. In 2013 when Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Commander Wali-ur-Rehman and Hakimullah Mehsud were killed in Drone attacks, Imran criticised Drone attacks and mentioned that they were peaceful persons. He also pleaded for opening of Taliban offices in different cities of Pakistan. Taliban also had full faith in Imran Khan and they also proposed his name to represent them in conciliation talks. He supports the state funding to Madrassas and in 2018, PTI granted Rs. 550 million to Madrassas, run by Sami-ul-Haq ‘Father of Taliban’. Khan’s love for Islam and Shariat is well known and as he was supported by Mullas, militants and military hence his internal as well as external policies will be governed by these three anti-India elements. Followers of Khan may claim that it is the vicious misinformation campaign launched by his critics on behest of India and United States, but it is difficult to refute the hard facts.

Imran Khan remained close to Deep State from last several years. Fatima Bhutto granddaughter of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, wrote an article captioned as “Imran Khan is only a player in the circus run by Pakistan’s military” in ‘The Guardian’ of 24 July, 2018. In the article besides other things she also explained the closeness of Khan with the Pakistan military.

In 2014 on dictates of Pakistan army, Imran Khan and cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) organised an “Azadi March” in Islamabad from August 14 to December 17, in which more than 60000 persons participated. Both Khan and Kadri alleged that 2013 general elections were rigged and demanded the resignation of elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The demand was ridiculous as Nawaz’s PML (N) had 190 seats in National Assembly of 342 members.

In Islamabad demonstrators cannot reach without tacit assistance of the administration. Besides the allegation of rigging in the general elections, the protesters also raised other issues like diminishing economic condition, rising terrorism, poor infrastructure just to name a few. However once the all powerful army realised that the image of Nawaz Sharif lowered and he was weakened, Khan and Qadri were instructed to withdraw the agitation, which they complied. The aim of General Raheel Sharif, the then Chief of Pakistan army was to subdue Nawaz Sharif who wanted to dictate terms to army.

Later army with the active assistance of judiciary not only dethroned Nawaz but debarred him and his daughter Maryam Nawaz Sharif from contesting elections and also imprisoned both of them. The analysts claim that the popularity of Sharif was not diminished much, and if he and his daughter would have been allowed to campaign freely in elections, PML (N) would have emerged single largest party in National Assembly elections as well as in Punjab province.

The Deep State deputed 370,000 security personnel all over Pakistan to conduct the ‘free & fair’ elections. The threatening presence of such large number of security personnel, even inside the polling booths, was enough to frighten the masses. The voters were also given the impression that security forces would know to whom they had given the votes. Several PML (N) leaders/workers were forced to leave the party and join PTI. The hardcore PML (N) personnel who refused to toe government line were imprisoned, under fabricated charges.

The Deep State has also forced press, primarily electronic media to defame PML (N) leaders and eulogise Imran Khan and his party. Nawaz Sharif was painted as pro-India and several false and fictitious allegations were put up against him and his party.

Courtesy: The Dawn

The statement of Khan that he wants to have friendly relations with Pakistan’s eastern and western neighbour is nothing but a diplomatic rhetoric. The PTI manifesto reiterates to resolve “Kashmir issue within the parameters of the UNSC resolutions.” The UNSC resolution is out-of-date and impractical and Pakistan itself failed to obey its foremost condition that all Pakistani troops must be withdrawn from Kashmir before plebiscite. Hence emphasizing to resolve Kashmir issue within ambit of UN Resolution clearly indicates that Khan is obeying dictates of Pakistan army and wants to prolong hostilities with India under the garb of Kashmir problem. Prime Minister Khan also made no mention about tightening of diverse terrorist outfits which are sponsored by sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and carrying out terrorist activities in India, especially in Kashmir. In election campaign also Khan criticised Sharif as ‘friend of Modi’ and termed him as traitor.

Although Prime Minister Khan may like to be active on foreign policy as the manifesto of PTI mentions about establishment of a separate cell to deal foreign policy in Prime Minister’s office but powerful army will never allow Khan to deal independently with India, Afghanistan and other important countries. In past when Prime Minister Sharif wanted to be friendly with India, General Sharif cut him to size. Pakistan army projects itself as the saviour of Pakistan and its ideology, which is based on Islam and is drastically anti-India.

However in the current elections Jihadists, including international terrorist Hafiz Saeed’s candidates were defeated badly. His party could not win a single seat and even his son and son-in-law, also lost elections. The vote share of extremists has reduced and they secured less than two percent votes, although they spoke much against India. In this way the silent majority of Pakistan gave a signal to Khan that he can negotiate with India. Khan has good relations with both extremists and the Deep State, hence initially he may be allowed to start negotiations with India but the talks will be according to the agenda of Deep State and with ulterior motive to prolong discussion overtly and continue assisting terrorists covertly.

The generals and politicians alike assured Pakistanis that Kashmir is an integral part of the country and it will be annexed in Pakistan. Unfortunately the illiterate masses trusted them hence there can be no agreement with India without settling Kashmir issue and complex Kashmir issue cannot be resolved through negotiations.

Courtesy : The Dawn

Khan has no experience of administration, even as member of National Assembly he was not very regular there. Hence his dependence on military and bureaucracy will be much more than his predecessors. Khan should enhance trade between both the countries and Kashmir issue should be kept in back-burner but the traders lobby which has support of Deep State will never allow widespread trade with India as it will expose that Pakistan is far behind its eastern neighbour. Although India gave Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan in 1996 but the latter has not reciprocated so far, may be because of pressure of traders or may be because of Chinese influence.

In Pakistan, Prime Ministers come and go without completing their tenures, and during their rule, army controlled ISI continues assisting terrorist outfits active in India. However Khan became Prime Minister with the active backing of Mullah, militant and military, hence now ISI has support of both military as well as of civilian government, therefore its assistance to secessionist elements have already enhanced.

The ISI has enhanced the infiltration of terrorists after it was declared that Khan will be the prime minister of Pakistan. ISI has also supported a pro-Khalistan outfit Sikh for Justice (SFJ) to organise ‘London Declaration on Referendum 2020 for Sikhs’ at London on August 12, 2018. Besides SFJ, ISI also assists Sikhs in Pakistan as well as abroad to raise Khalistan issue. There are reports that ISI supporters are contacting terrorists in Bangladesh especially Rohingya Muslims who are already radicalized to carryout terrorist activities in India mainly in Kashmir.

Courtesy : DNA

Unfortunately several pro-Pakistan apologists in India plead that India should negotiate with Pakistan and these talks may conclude in some agreement. However Pakistan watchers are of the view that Khan has no authority to settle an agreement with India and it will be a sheer waste of time.
Khan has a razor thin majority in National Assembly and became prime minister because of assistance rendered by the troika of military, militant and Mullah hence he is in no position to make any sincere effort to negotiate with India. In India also, the general elections are just few months away hence ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would also not make any earnest effort to negotiate.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

India-Pakistan Relations: War is No Solution

By J K Verma 

Although there are a lot of issues of conflict between India and Pakistan but Kashmir problem is at the core of sour relations between the two countries. In this article Jai Kumar Verma, New Delhi based strategic analyst and a Pakistan watcher tried to give an insightful way forward to cement the ties between the two conflicting nations

Since the days of partition, Pakistan, which was created in the name of Islam, has nourished an inherent hatred towards India. The Pakistani Army, enjoying immense benefits in running the government in its country, propagated with ulterior motive that India a much bigger country in size and population has not accepted the partition and would try to annex Pakistan. Not only this, the Pakistani Army presented itself as the saviour of the country.

That apart, Punjab, which was a dominant province usurped in all powers and started exploiting all other nationalities.

The saner elements in both the countries, which are small in number, made several attempts to inculcate cordial relations between India and Pakistan and hence Shimla Summit, Agra Summit and Lahore Summit were held. However, the summits and numerous meetings between officials of both the countries simply averted the war but conflicts and encounters continued.

In 2003, ceasefire agreement was signed and Delhi-Lahore Bus Service and the train service between both the nations named Samjhauta Express also started but Pakistan continued training, assisting and infiltration of terrorists in India. In 2001, Pakistani terrorists attacked Indian Parliament, while in 2007 bombs were exploded in Samjhauta Express and in 2008 Pakistani terrorists of Lashker-e-Taiba attacked Mumbai in which about 166 people were killed and more than 600 got injured.

The Pakistan army-controlled intelligence agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has waged a low intensity war against India especially in Jammu & Kashmir. In 2016, the Pakistan-sponsored terrorists attacked Pathankot Air base and Army base at Uri in which about twenty five soldiers were martyred. The Indian security forces to take revenge carried out surgical strike on September 29, 2016 entered in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and attacked at seven launching pads and killed about forty Pakistani terrorists, their guides and their trainers who were from the Pakistan Army.

MAIN IRRITANTS

There are several irritants between New Delhi and Islamabad; nonetheless the prime dilemma is suspicion at all levels. Following are the main causes of animosity between the two neighbours:

JUNAGADH ISSUE

Junagadh had 80 per cent Hindus but its ruler was a Muslim. He migrated to Pakistan and signed the instrument of accession in favour of the India’s arch-rival country. As Junagadh was not contiguous to Pakistan, the accession was neither legal nor practically possible.

KASHMIR CONFLICT

Unfortunately during the partition there was lot of bloodshed, and although ruler of Kashmir signed the instrument of accession in favour of India, Pakistan refused to accept it. Since then both the counties fought three full wars and one undeclared war in Kargil. Besides these major wars there were several skirmishes, unprovoked firings and armed altercations mainly because of Kashmir.

Islamabad claims that Kashmir is unfinished agenda hence it has created diverse terrorist outfits including Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Omar, Al Badr, Lashkar-e-Jabbar, Tehrik-ul-Mujahideen, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen with ulterior motive of carrying out terrorist activities in J&K.

Besides these outfits, the ISI continuously infiltrates Madrassa-educated, semi-literate, disenchanted Pakistani Muslim youths for creating disturbances in the Valley. Unfortunately, the Pakistan Army and terrorist leaders including Hafiz Saeed were able to convince the illiterate masses that they would snatch Kashmir from India.

CREATION OF BANGLADESH

In 1971, residents of the then East Pakistan revolted and Punjabi dominated Army instead of giving them their legitimate rights, resorted to barbaric atrocities which ultimately resulted in the independence and creation of a new nation with the name of Bangladesh. However, Islamabad instead of realising its blunder blamed India for its bifurcation. Now large number of fanatic Pakistanis want to take revenge by dissecting J&K from India.

CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC)

The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is a significant part of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) passes from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) as well as from Gilgit and Baltistan, which are integral parts of India. New Delhi has raised objections to the construction of CPEC. However, China promised Pakistan that it will invest more than $50 billion in CPEC. The Pakistani authorities tried to convince the masses that CPEC will end the country’s economic problem nevertheless it is erroneous and CPEC will prove a debt trap for Pakistan.

WATER DISPUTES

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT), which is unduly in favour of Pakistan, administers the rivers which flow from India to Pakistan. Although no war is fought on water so far but in future it will be a big issue as there is acute shortage of water in Pakistan, and India is also suffering from water crisis.

INDIA-AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS

Pakistan wants to achieve strategic depth in Afghanistan and alleges that India assists several secessionist outfits active in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and other places through Afghanistan. Pakistan wants to establish pro-Pakistan and anti-India government in Afghanistan and when the relations between India and Afghanistan become cordial ISI launches terrorist operations both in India and Afghanistan.

PAKISTAN ACCORDED SHELTER TO INDIA FUGITIVE

Pakistan has given shelter to more than 50 Indian fugitives including Dawood Ibrahim, Anees Ibrahim and Chota Shakeel etc. It is also not taking any legal action against terrorists like the mastermind behind the Mumbai terror attacks in 2008 Hafiz Saeed and others who are involved in terrorist activities in India.

DIFFERENCE IN SYSTEM

India is a secular democratic country while Pakistan is an orthodox Islamic country where the army is a de-facto ruler. Islamic extremism is so much ingrained in Pakistan that terrorist leaders openly lecture that they will destroy India and capture Kashmir.

WAY FORWARD

Pakistan was carved out from India hence both the countries share history, culture, traditions, language and if the two nations live amicably and work together they can render great service to the mankind as sizable part of their population live below the poverty line. There are close geographical, linguistic, matrimonial and sporting ties between both the countries. Not only this, strong diasporas of both the countries have cordial relations abroad and they should play a positive role in strengthening friendly relations between India and Pakistan.

India accorded Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan in 1996 but the latter has not reciprocated so far. India wants to cultivate cordial relations with Pakistan but the latter on the behest of another neighbour China carries out terrorist activities in India. China wants to hamper India’s economic growth as Beijing feels that India has the potential to challenge China in the region as well as in international arena. Pakistan should inculcate cordial relations with both India and China so that the country can achieve economic growth.

There are too many common points between India and Pakistan hence people-to-people contact must be enhanced so that common people will understand that the people of other countries want to live in peace. Pakistan should accord MFN status to India and the trade between both the countries must be enhanced. Border trade should be increased but security agencies must keep a strict vigil so that trade cannot be used to finance the terrorists. It may be noted here that in the recent past India’s premier National Investigation Agency (NIA) had interrogated a few unscrupulous traders who were financing Kashmiri secessionists.

There are also lots of contradictions about the partition of India. Both countries should reconcile the facts so that the misunderstandings are resolved. Besides, they more or less play same games hence there should be more tournaments and exchange of teams in order to establish friendly ties between them. NGOs of both the countries can join hands and can fight social evils and improve educational standard. The local populace in both the countries should understand that war will be an economic disaster hence it must be avoided at all cost.

Both countries must curtail defence expenditure and put that money for economic development and elevation of the masses. However, it is feasible only if the two nations disregard the massive suspicion against each other.

Track II diplomacy is also useful in starting negotiations. Several times the relations between India and Pakistan touch rock-bottom and both sides adopt very stringent postures and refuse to talk. India maintains that terrorism and negotiations cannot go together.

At one time, India-Pakistan border also became very tense, at that time a group of 14 people led by former Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, former cabinet Secretary and a former naval chief met a Pakistani delegation led by former minister and foreign secretary at a hotel in Islamabad and the ground for starting negotiations was made. Track II diplomacy can break the ice and both parties may agree to negotiate but the differences have to be resolved by both the governments and Pakistan has to leave the path of sponsoring terrorism in India.

Pakistan is suffering from multifarious problems including unbridled corruption, exploitation of all the nationalities by Punjabis, population explosion, water scarcity, dwindling economic condition, increasing terrorism and extremism just to name a few. The rulers of Pakistan instead of raising anti-India bogey to divert the attention of masses should try to solve the problems of their countrymen and discontinue sponsoring terrorism in India and Afghanistan.

–The author is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely of the author

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Imran Khan Will Be The Next Pakistani Prime Minister

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·         Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf emerges victorious in Pak elections

·         Deep State manipulates it’s success

·         Grapes are sour for the rest

By J.K.Verma

Courtesy: Daily Express

New Delhi. 26 July 2018. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged as the largest single party in the fiercely contested general elections held in Pakistan on 25^th July. Although Election Commission has not officially announced the results but according to media reports PTI would get 119 seats in the 342 seats National Assembly, while 137 seats are required to form the government. Elections were held for 272 general seats while 70 seats are reserved for women and religious minorities. Hence PTI will need support of some smaller parties to form the government, which does not seem to be a great hurdle.

The opposition parties, large number of journalists, as well as Pakistan observers all over the world vocally feel the blatant manipulation by the election commission under instructions of the Deep State. Shahbaz Sharif President of Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and younger brother of ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif rejected the election results in a press conference at Lahore and alleged that there were blatant irregularities. PML (N) agents were not given Form 45 and the party’s polling agents were ousted at the time of counting.  Several persons could not cast votes due to long queues but election Commission has not accepted the request of PML (N) to enhance one hour voting time.  There are also reports that security personnel have arrested persons with pre-marked ballot papers.

Bilawal Bhutto Chairman of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) which came out third alleged wrongdoings in the elections. He mentioned on twitter that candidates as well as polling agents were “thrown out” from polling stations all over the country.

Faisal Sabzwari a leader of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) also insinuated rigging and mentioned that the results were given on plain paper instead of Form 45.

Political observers in United States also raised doubts about the fairness of the elections. Hussain Haqqani former Pakistan ambassador in US also mentioned that Imran Khan had full support of the establishment while PML (N) and PPP were facing constriction.

Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) claimed that the election was “manipulated” and there were brazen efforts to silence the media and the candidates were threatened of dire consequences.  HRCP also maintained that the polling staff was not fair as at some places they were inclined towards one party while at some places polling staff was prejudiced towards another party. At several places women were prohibited to cast their votes.

The head of the European Union’s election monitoring mission in Pakistan also mentioned that the army men present at the polling booths have provided limited access to media.

As expected, Sardar Raza Khan the Chief Election Commissioner claimed that elections were free, fair and transparent. However because of some technical problems results are delayed.

PML(N) also revealed that dominant deep state has pressurised judiciary which under fabricated cases sentenced Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Mariam Sharif for ten and seven years of imprisonment respectively. Not only this, judiciary has not granted them bail so that they cannot campaign for their party.

Pakistan military which was supporting PTI made massive security arrangements, about 370, 000 army and 450,000 police personnel were deployed for the security of 85,000 polling stations and for conduct of elections smoothly. The security agencies have also arrested 2185 persons who were expected to disturb law and order situation during elections. The elections are also important as it is second time in the history of Pakistan that one civilian government will be handing over power to another civilian government.

Not only rigging, the election 2018 was also blemished because of terrorist activities in which about 180 people including three candidates were killed while the number of injured was much more. Quetta blast occurred in front of Polling booth to deter the voters to cast their votes. Although Islamic State (IS) took the responsibility of the blast but analysts mention that sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) was behind these terrorist activities. Before Quetta blast there was another suicide attack at Mastung in an election rally in which about 149 innocent people were killed.  There were few firing incidents and clashes between supporters of two parties also took place.

Candidates of several Islamist political parties and candidates with blessings of Lashker-e-Toiba Chief Hafiz Saeed were defeated in the elections. Even the son and son-in law of Hafiz Saeed could not win elections. It is a welcome sign and it indicates that the majority of Pakistan is fed up with terrorism and they want to live in peace and tranquility. In this way the silent majority of Pakistan has constrained the plan of deep state that Imran Khan should become prime minster with support of Hafiz Saeed so that they can keep him under full control. Eighty candidates of Hafiz Saeed contested elections on the tickets of Allah-O-Akbar Tehreek (AAT) a little known party as the election commission has not registered Milli Muslim League (MML) which was constituted by Hafiz Saeed to contest elections.

The cricketer turned politician Imran Khan has no experience of administration and he often blamed India for deteriorating India-Pakistan relations. He alleged that India wants to weaken Pakistan and the relations became worst after Modi became Prime Minister. The analysts mention that as deep state manipulated elections in favour of Imran Khan hence the latter will have to full-fill instructions of the Pakistani army. The sinister ISI has created several terrorist outfits to carryout terrorist activities in India especially in Kashmir hence Imran Khan has to adopt a stringent policy towards India especially Kashmir. Hence Kashmir problem will be more aggravated and Indian policy makers must chalk out a long term plan as Pakistan military will adopt a more aggressive policy towards Kashmir.  Overtly Imran Khan will welcome dialogue with India on Kashmir but he is in no position to control ISI hence recruitment, training and infiltration of terrorists in the valley will continue unabated.

Imran Khan will strengthen relations with China as Pakistan is not getting desired assistance from USA and Army has not only close relations but it is dependent on China. Beijing also plays vital role in the foreign policy of Pakistan while Islamabad also indirectly helps China by carrying out terrorist activities in India. China which welcomed the new government will insist that the hurdles coming in the way of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) must be resolved early and Chinese interest must be protected fully.

Imran Khan also stated that he will improve ties with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both countries have hostile relations and several terrorist outfits in Pakistan do not consider Shias as true Muslims and pledge to exterminate them. Salafi Islamic State which is strengthening itself in radical Pakistan is dead against Shias and responsible for several terrorist activities in Shia mosques and other religious places.

The improvement of relations with Afghanistan will be very difficult as Pakistani army wants to install pro-Pakistan and anti India government in Afghanistan so that it can have strategic depth there.  ISI has created several terrorist outfits which are creating trouble in Afghanistan and Afghan president and others have already told Pakistan to control these terrorists. However Pakistan launched numerous anti-terrorist operations but always distinguished between “good” and “bad” terrorists hence no action was taken against terrorist outfits carrying out terrorist activities in India and Afghanistan.

Besides foreign policy the biggest problem Imran Khan will have to encounter is the pathetic economic condition of the country. Pakistan is in no position to repay its debt. The imports are increasing while exports are decreasing. The foreign remittance is also dwindling. There is rampant corruption in the country and Imran Khan told that control of corruption will be his priority but there is widespread corruption in defence forces also and he is in no position to control it.

Pakistan is far behind in human development, education and health and it needs massive infusion of funds.

Pakistan was water  surplus country at the time of independence but at present there is acute shortage of water. Pakistan is facing population explosion and Islamic extremism has increased so much that no family planning programme is feasible. If Pakistan has to progress de-radicalisation programme has to be initiated and radicalisation should be curbed. In nutshell Imran Khan will be facing copious problems both on national and international fields and he has to solve them with empty hands. Deep state will keep an eagle eye on his activities and he will not be allowed to revamp the system as it suits the all powerful Pakistan Army.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely of the author. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Pakistan’s Forthcoming Elections: Dubious Role Of Deep State

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New Delhi. 13 July 2018. The powerful ‘Deep State’ of Pakistan which controls the politics of the country has diluted the political parties with ulterior motive. The general elections are just few days away but the mainstream political parties of the country are in disarray. Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) was constituted by Nawaz Sharif in October 1993, on behest of the then ruler General Zia-ul-Haq to challenge Benazir Bhutto and her party Pakistan Peoples Party. PML (N) is a centre-right conservative party which was in power but all powerful Pakistan army overthrew Nawaz Sharif with the help of judiciary.

The judiciary not only deposed Sharif but also sentenced ten years of rigorous imprisonment to him, his daughter Maryam was sentenced for seven years and her husband Capt (Retd) Muhammad Safdar sentenced for one year while Hassan and Hussain sons of Sharif were declared absconders. In this way the Deep State which does not want Nawaz Sharif and his family to win elections disqualified all important family members through judiciary. Besides rigorous imprisonment heavy fines were also imposed on Sharif and his daughter.

Nawaz Sharif is a mass leader hence in 2014 when he became Prime Minister after winning the elections the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) with ulterior motive to weaken him assisted Imran Khan and Tahir-l-Qadri of Hizb-ut-Tehrir to launch a powerful agitation in Islamabad. Sharif proved much stronger and initiated criminal action against former Army Chief General Musharaff. Nawaz also tried to inculcate friendly relations with India which Pakistan army does not approve. The Deep State alleged that Nawaz has employed R&AW agents in his factories and did money laundering through India. This time Deep State connived with judiciary and the latter has not only deposed Sharif but also awarded sentence of imprisonment to all his close family members. The analysts feel that five times married Shahbaz Sharif the present Chief of PML (N) is more acceptable to Deep State then Nawaz Sharif.

The PPP, which was founded by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in November 1967, is a left-wing socialist progressive party. Once it was the most popular political party and ruled the nation four times, however at present it is in jeopardy. The current election will be litmus test of Bilawal Bhutto who is not in good terms with his father Asif Ali Zardari.  The vote bank of the party has considerably evaporated and in 2013 elections party’s performance was very dismal and most of its candidates were defeated.

Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) which is close to Pakistan army is in shambles and cricketer turned politicians is in trouble because of his former wife. The powerful Jang group had also put a legal suit of one billion rupees and an unconditional apology against Imran Khan.

Besides national parties the traditional Islamist political parties as well as regional political parties are also in muddle. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazal (JUI-F), Jammat-e-Islami though outwardly constituted an electoral alliance but internally there are severe differences. Not only this newly constituted extremist parties like Tehreek-e-Labaik Ya Rasool Allah and Allahu Akbar Tehreek would make a sizeable dent in the vote-bank of Islamic parties. Although these Islamic parties could not get majority votes in the elections but they always gave fiery speeches against India, and minorities especially Hindu minorities.

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) which was a prominent party of Urdu speaking migrants from India was divided by sinister ISI and at present its founder leader Altaf Hussain has no control over the party and party lost its following. 

Political parties in Balochistan are also in tatters and the province is suffering from secession as Pakistan security forces have crushed the movement mercilessly by exterminating large number of Balochis.

Pakistan army which is ruling the country from its independence directly or indirectly does not want that the roots of democracy strengthen in the country. The Deep State also wants a weak prime minister which works under the command of authoritative Pakistani army. 

The creepy ISI is supporting Hafiz Muhammad Saeed co-founder of Lashkar-e-Toiba (L-eT) and Chief of another terrorist outfit Jama’at-ud-Dawa (J-u-D). He is the mastermind of 2008 Mumbai attacks in which approximately 166 persons were killed and more than 600 were injured. In April 2012, US announced a reward of $ 10 million on Hafiz Saeed but as he is a protégé of the Deep State no worthwhile action was taken against him and he was released in November 2017. Saeed is the most wanted terrorist in India but as he has the backing of Pakistan army he moves freely, addresses rallies and delivers anti- US, anti Israeli and anti-India speeches.

Hafiz Saeed has constituted a new political party with the name of Milli Muslim League (MML) although the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) refused to recognise MML overtly because of the report of interior ministry that MML is an offshoot of J-u-D which is proscribed under UN resolution. However MML was not enrolled because of anticipation of strong adverse reaction in international arena.

J-u-D is a frontal organ of L-e-T and its candidates would be contesting elections on the tickets of a dormant organisation namely Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek’s (AAT). Hafiz Saeed will not contest the elections as he is not sure of the mood of silent majority of the country and if he loses the election his reputation will be smashed but about 265 J-u-D candidates including son and son-in-law of Hafiz Saeed would be contesting forthcoming elections scheduled to be held on July 25, 2018. Out of 265 seats J-u-D would contest on 80 National Assembly (N.A.) and 185 seats in provincial assemblies. Nevertheless main focus of the party will be on Punjab province as the party would contest 50 N.A. and 152 provincial assembly seats.

The release of Hafiz Saeed and J-u-D fielding its candidates in general elections strengthens Islamabad’s contention that other’s terrorists are not their terrorists and that was the reason that Deep State continued supporting al Qaeda, Osma Bin Laden, Hafiz Saeed, Haqqani network and Afghan Taliban. It also explains their distinction between ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ terrorists and their disinclination to act against L-e-T, J-u-D and other terrorist outfits carrying out terrorist activities in India and Afghanistan.

The analysts adhere that although judiciary under instructions of Military deposed Nawaz Sharif and disqualified all his family members from contesting elections but the popularity of Nawaz Sharif has not dwindled much. Nawaz and Maryam both are in London and analysts claim that if they return to Pakistan and campaign for the party, PML (N) will get sympathy votes and can again form the government. The party will certainly acquire more votes in Punjab province both in national as well as in provincial elections. It is expected that either there will be a hung parliament or PML (N) will be able to secure a majority in 342 seats National Assembly (direct elections are for 272 seats only while 70 seats are reserved for women and religious minorities.) PML (N) won Lahore and Lodhran seats in the recently held bye elections.

In case no party gets the clear majority there will be a problem as no two parties out of three main national political parties namely PML (N), PPP or PTI would form a coalition government. In this case Hafiz Saeed’s party can form a government with PTI as Imran Khan has cordial relations with the Deep State. The analysts claim that either the elections will be rigged so that PML (N) does not get the majority or in case elections are rigged partially then a coalition government of Imran Khan and Hafiz Saeed would be constituted. Imran Khan whose life ambition is to become Prime Minister of the country can also be fulfilled. In past he weakened Nawaz Sharif and his party with Tahirul Qadri. Now he can take help of regional parties like MQM, few Islamic parties including Parvez Musharraf and can form a government.

The most important point in the elections is whether polls are rigged and if rigged than how much? If the polls are totally manipulated than there are no chances of PML(N) coming to power and Deep State will make a puppet as the Prime Minister. If polls are partially rigged and PML (N) gets majority then Deep State may agree on the name of ShahBaz Sharif. The sinister ISI may also make efforts of dividing PML (N) and former interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan was ready to revolt but for the time being party was able to impede the rebellion but it may take place before or after the elections. The 2018 elections are very important and Deep State will certainly rig the elections to have the Prime Minister of its choice.

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Home » Spotlight » US Secretary of State gives a jolt to Pakistan Army Chief

US Secretary Of State Gives A Jolt To Pakistan Army Chief

By JK Verma

·         Asked  Pakistan to take action against terrorists without differentiating between good and bad 

New Delhi. 10 June 2018. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who is former Chief of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) called Pakistan Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa on June 6^th and discussed about strengthening US-Pakistan relations, settlement of political situation in Afghanistan and also told General Bajwa to take stringent actions against terrorists without differentiating between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ terrorists.  US Vice President Michael Richard Pence also called Pakistan Caretaker Prime Minister former Chief Justice Nasir-ul-Mulk and while congratulating him to take over as prime Minster also wished him good luck for conducting the general elections scheduled to be held on July 25^th. The analysts claim that the call of Vice President was of routine nature while the call of Mike Pompeo was a jolt to Pakistan establishment.

Pompeo as former CIA director is fully aware that the Pakistan army Chief is the most powerful person in Pakistan and sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) directly works under Army Chief. CIA Chief has in-depth knowledge how and when ISI assisted various terrorist outfits active in Afghanistan. He also knew that General Bajwa is the right person to instruct creepy ISI to stop assisting Haqqani network and Afghan Taliban, as they are attcking US led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) troops in Afghanistan.

The telephone call of Pompeo is also important as Afghan President Ashraf Ghani announced a temporary ceasefire with Taliban as Islamic Council issued a proclamation that suicide bombings should be stopped and peace talks should be initiated. Ghani announced temporary ceasefire up to fifth day of Eid-ul-Fitr nonetheless pragmatic analysts feel that the ceasefire will be fruitless and terrorists will utilise it in regrouping and strengthening themselves.

Nevertheless  US has welcomed the decision of ceasefire as US administration claims that it succeeded in arranging the talks between Taliban and Afghan administration. Taliban also declared temporary ceasefire for first three days of Eid-ul-Fitr but before declaring ceasefire they attacked a military base in Western Afghanistan and killed 19 Afghan security personnel. Taliban massacred Afghan security personnel to show their strength but had to declare ceasefire on Eid-ul-Fitr in view of a proclamation from Afghan Ulema Council. Afghan hard-liners feel that the victory is nearby and they will occupy the whole country hence there is no use negotiating for few areas only, although the analysts mention that it is a very optimistic assessment and may not be fulfilled.

Afghan watchers claim that now the sway of Pakistan has considerably dwindled and it is in no position to force terrorist outfits to negotiate or after negotiations conform to the agreed terms. So  the call from US Secretary of State may be to make Pakistan a scapegoat for US failures in Afghanistan and allege that Islamabad has not extended whole hearted support in eliminating Haqqani network and Afghan Taliban hence US could not win the war on terror.

The situation in Afghanistan is becoming more and more complicated as now Russia, China and Iran are also ready to assist Taliban to mitigate the rising influence of the Islamic State (IS) which was previously known as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). IS has constituted Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISK-P) and it is magnetizing large number of radicalised, Madrassa-educated, semi-literate Muslim youths of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and several other countries. There are also reports that even disenchanted Muslim youths of Western countries are also joining ISK-P.

The following of ISK-P is increasing not only in Afghanistan but also in the areas of Pakistan abutting Afghanistan. Several disgruntled elements of different terrorist outfits including Tehrik-i-Taliban-Pakistan, Taliban, Al Qaeda, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and terrorists of foreign countries also joined IS. The terrorists of Ansar ul-Khilafat Wal-Jihad, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al-Alami, Al Tawhid Brigade, Jundullah, and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar also became close to ISK (P). IS which follows Salafi ideology is against Shia Muslims hence Iran is assisting Afghan Taliban, same way Russia has sizable Muslim population and does not want that influence of IS enhances in Afghanistan. The Uighur Muslims of Xianjiang province of China are fighting for separate homeland hence China also wants to curb rising influence of IS in Afghanistan.

Islamabad alleges that India is assisting diverse secessionist outfits in Pakistan from Afghanistan. Islamabad is in doldrums as USA is pressing hard to take actions against terrorist outfits including Haqqani network as they are constantly attacking US and Afghan troops. Islamabad alleges that Delhi and Kabul have inculcated close relations and working against interests of Pakistan hence it is not prudent to take stringent actions against ISI backed terror outfits including Haqqani network.

The relations between US and Pakistan are dwindling fast as President Trump in its first tweet of 2018 mentioned that US got nothing except “lies and deceit” from Pakistan while Washington gave about $33 billion aid to the Islamabad in last fifteen years. US has suspended military and security aid to Pakistan. Both counties have also imposed travel restrictions on the diplomats of other country.

Islamabad launched numerous operations with fancy names in diverse areas against terrorists but the terrorism could not be curbed and it enhanced. The main operations included Al-Mizan, Zalzala, Rah-e-Haq, Rah-e-Raast, Rah-e-Nijat, Black Thunderstorm, Sher Dil, Koh-e-Safaid, Zarb-e-Azb, Radd-ul-Fasaad, but these operations could not achieve desired result as the authorities always distinguished between good and bad terrorists. The terrorist outfits attacking India and Afghanistan according to the commands and directions of sinister ISI are considered “good” terrorists while the terror groups attacking Pakistan security forces or carrying out terrorist activities inside Pakistan are considered “bad” terrorists. Here also the terrorist outfits attacking Shias, Sufis and non-Muslims even in Pakistan are considered ‘good’ terrorists. Pakistan security forces before launching the operation inform ‘good’ terrorists about the operation hence they escape from operational areas. Here Pakistan security forces do not understand that there are no ‘good’ and ‘bad’ terrorists and all terrorists must be dealt stringently and should be exterminated. The terrorists change outfits and loyalties hence there should be no mercy towards them.

Pakistan supporters mention that the Trump administration should analyse its relationship with Pakistan and should not adopt irrational attitude as US was the first ally of Pakistan and it trained Mujahedeen on behest of US and its allies however once Russian troops withdrew US also left abandoning Pakistan. After 9/11 Pakistan joined US war against terror but US administration continuously mention that terrorists are taking shelter in Pakistan after attacking US led NATO troops. Pakistani leaders also claim that they took actions against all terrorists and spent more than $120 billion and about 80,000 Pakistanis were killed. They also mention that US needs Pakistan to win the war in Afghanistan but it appears that the Trump administration is determined to condemn Pakistan. However the suspension of aid alone will not compel Pakistan to stop rendering support to terrorist outfits as now it is declined to $ 1 billion only.

Pakistan has waged a low intensity war against India and also wants to eliminate Pakistani Taliban as they are carrying out terrorist activities from Afghanistan. Whenever Pakistan launches an operation against Pakistani Taliban they take shelter in Afghanistan.

The relationship between Pakistan and USA is based on suspicion. US feels that it spent billions of dollars in Pakistan but it always ditched it. On the other hand Pakistan considers US as a distant, volatile and unreliable partner. US will be in trouble if Islamabad cuts off supply routes to US troops in Afghanistan although the number of troops is considerably reduced but they also need supplies. Use of Northern Distribution Network (NDN) or Chabahar port may also not be workable as US has imposed sanctions both on Russia and Iran.

Pakistan has general elections in July and there is lot of anti US feelings in the country hence Islamabad will have to adopt a stringent line towards US to please the masses. Pakistani masses also feel that US is becoming close to India and is working against Pakistan hence the threat and suspension of financial assistance by US will have no effect on Islamabad.

Pakistan should also be careful from China as the latter is an expansionist country and utilising its surplus cash in giving loans at higher rates to neighbouring countries and later occupying their territory. Myanmar had to lease Coco Islands to China, Bangladesh lost control over Chittagong port and Sri Lanka had to lease Hambantota port to Beijing on 99 years lease. Maldives had to allow China to build naval base in Marao Islands. CPEC will prove a debt-trap and Pakistan will lose not only Gwadar port but some arable land will also be annexed by China.

Pakistan which has emerged as an epicenter of terrorism should genuinely launch operations against terrorist outfits and exterminate terrorists without discrimination between good and bad terrorists.

The other problem is that civilian government in Pakistan is toothless hence US has to negotiate with military officers. The relations between US and Pakistan are so complicated that it can be sorted out by civilians especially by diplomats.

US snubbed Pakistan so many times and there are rumors that US will take unilateral actions against terrorist outfits as its closeness with India is increasing. It is expected that Pakistan will not take any action against ‘good’ terrorists till general elections are over and Islamabad bluntly told that there is no setup of banned terrorist organisation in Islamabad. These terrorist outfits are serving Pakistan’s interest. If US will bulldoze more, Pakistan may go completely in the lap of China which will also not be good for US or for the region.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Pakistan Tries To Merge Gilgit And Baltistan

·        India Lodges Complaint

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 01 June 2018. Ministry of External Affairs summoned Syed Haider Shah, Deputy High Commissioner of Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi recently and lodged a strong protest on passing of “Gilgit- Baltistan Order” of May 21, 2018. Under the order, Prime Minister of Pakistan has snatched powers from Gilgit Baltistan (GB) council to handle the affairs of GB. The MEA made it clear that entire state of Jammu & Kashmir including GB became integral part of India after the Instrument of Accession in 1947 and Pakistan has no right to change the prevailing status quo and it should handover the illegally occupied areas of J&K to India. Gilgit Baltistan order is an attempt by Pakistan to convert GB into its fifth province.

Analysts claim that Pakistan government passed Gilgit-Baltistan Order-2018 under pressure from Beijing as China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through GB and China promised to invest more than $50 billion in CPEC. Hence China pressed that Pakistan must clarify the status of GB as China will not invest such a huge amount in a disputed area. China has not made any direct comment on the Order and Chinese spokesperson mentioned that CPEC is only for economic purposes and Chinese stand remains unchanged and Kashmir issue has to be resolved by India and Pakistan. China wants that India should join President Xi Jinping dream project The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) hence it emphasised that CPEC which is a part of BRI is an economic project and has nothing to do with Kashmir issue and it will be decided by India and Pakistan.  The CPEC links the restive region of Xinjiang of Western China to Gwadar port in Pakistan.

India has not only refused to join CPEC but also raised objections as it passes through the areas of J&K which is legally part of India but illegitimately occupied by Pakistan. The area of Kashmir illegally occupied by Pakistan was divided into two parts Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit & Baltistan.

Pakistan also summoned India’s Deputy High Commissioner in Islamabad on May 28 and issued a demarche on Indian claim that whole of J&K belongs to India. Pakistan State Office issued a statement mentioning that Pakistan categorically rejects “Indian statement on the Gilgit Baltistan Order 2018” as it is “baseless and fallacious”. The statement claims that J&K is a disputed territory.

The people of GB also protested against passing of illegal Gilgit-Baltistan Order. The protesters which belonged to all political parties came out on the streets, shouted anti-government and anti-Pakistan slogans. The protesters were carrying banners and placards and were protesting against the order. They also clashed with security personnel and police had to use teargas shells, resorted to lathi-charge and at last on firing in which several protesters were injured.

The residents of Gilgit and Baltistan especially students also hold a demonstration outside National Press Club in Islamabad against the order under the aegis of  Gilgit-Baltistan Council of the Quaid-e-Azam University. The protesters claimed it as an “illegal occupation of the local people’s land”. The demonstrators shouted slogans against federal as well as provincial governments and claimed that the enactment is a ‘black law’ and asserted that the law will not only grab the powers of provincial government but will make it a rubber-stamp which will only obey the wishes of Central government.

India objected Pakistan’s illegitimate efforts of declaring GB as its fifth province as it is part of J&K which is an integral part of India. Delhi also criticised Pakistan for human right violations, building dams and even conducting elections in GB.

India also conveyed its displeasure to China about construction activities in GB which is part of India but illegally occupied by Pakistan. In fact India is objecting it since 1960 but this time India made it part of its bilateral relations with China.

Pakistan intends to declare GB as its fifth province partially under pressure from China and partly to utilise the untapped resources of GB which contains water & minerals.

Pakistan’s Kashmir centric pomposity overshadowed GB but it does not minimize its importance.  GB is much bigger than POK and Indus River first passes from GB before entering Pakistan.  Important glaciers including Siachen Glacier from where several rivers come out is also part of GB. Pakistan’s dependence on GB will enhance due to climate change and need of arable land because of population explosion. The average population growth rate of Pakistan is 2.40 % which is highest in the region. China has agreed to construct two big dams on Indus River at Bunji and Diamer-Bhasha which will produce electricity and can be utilised for irrigation purposes. 

GB is very important strategically; in fact without control over GB it will be difficult to defend POK and control over GB and POK helps in defending Pakistan. GB is located at the crossroads of Indian subcontinent, Central Asia and China. In fact Pakistan gets land access to China through Karakoram Highway which passes from GB. GB is also close to Afghanistan and it shares borders with Kashmir valley, Xianjiang and Tibet.

Punjabi dominated Pakistan neglected GB and although it was under the Ministry of  Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit Baltistan but because of ethnic and emotional differences no progress was made in GB. POK is governed by a constitution while GB is governed through ad-hoc laws. The demand of restoration of the state subject rule of residents of GB was also not fulfilled. There is also difference in oath of office. In POK oath, it is stated that to ‘ remain loyal to country and cause of accession of the state of J&K to Pakistan while in GB the oath simply mentions to be loyal to Pakistan which indicates that POK is yet to merge while GB is already merged with Pakistan. The per capita income of GB is one-third of a Pakistani per capita income which indicates the poor condition of the GB which has to fulfill all the liabilities and duties of a province but no right is given to the residents of GB.

Islamabad sent a very big delegation to China to attend Belt and Road Forum but Chief Minister of GB was not included. The details of CPEC are still not revealed and the residents of GB feel that CPEC will be beneficial only to Punjab and will be harmful for Balochistan and GB. The inhabitants of GB want to know about the transit fees and compensation they will receive as so many infrastructure projects would be constructed on their land. They also suspect that workers of other states especially from Punjab will come in GB on the name of construction of these infrastructure projects and will settle in their areas which may change the demography of the region.

People of Gilgit speak Dardic language and residents of Baltistan speak Balti while Urdu is national language of Pakistan and Punjabi is the most important language. Majority population of GB are Shia Muslims while there are diverse Sunni terrorist outfits which slaughters Shias and have protection from sinister Inter Services Intelligence.  The gulf between Shias and Sunnis has enhanced all over the world and Pakistan which has about 20 percent Shia population is no exception. Saudi Arabia helps Wahhabi organisations and few of them are anti-Shias. Not only this Islamic State (IS), the most powerful terrorist outfit adheres to Salafi ideology and it does not consider Shias as true Muslims and pledge to exterminate them. 

China is also taking interest in GB because of diverse reasons. CPEC connects the restive province of Xinjiang with Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang province have constituted few terrorist outfits and fighting for a separate country. Few Muslim terrorist organisations in Pakistan and Afghanistan are assisting the Uighur terrorists hence China wants strong military presence in GB to curb any rebellion. China is also interested to exploit hydro-electric power resources and mineral resources of GB.

Pakistan wants to exercise more control over GB which is not only a disputed territory but the population of the area which is Shia is also against Pakistan as Punjabi rulers are exploiting the resources of the area and not allowing any development of the region. As Punjabi rulers could not manage the area, now they want to take Chinese help in controlling the area. Pakistan does not realise that China has expansionist policies and they have interest in the minerals, water resources and arable land of GB and if once they will occupy, they will not return the areas to Pakistan.

Pakistan just to harm India is allowing China to establish itself in GB which will be harmful in long run. Pakistan erroneously feels that China will assist it in getting the occupation of Jammu & Kashmir and that is the fundamental reason it is giving concessions to China.

The analysts mention that it is a clever move of present government as it satisfied China and also it will appease Kashmir lobby in the country and it will benefit the party in forthcoming elections which is just few months away. However it also points out Pakistan’s excessive dependence on China which is not good for a sovereign nation.

 (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Success Of Indian Security Forces Made Pakistan Panicky

Hits 141

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 09 April 2018. The joint operation of Army, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and Jammu & Kashmir Police, achieved spectacular success on April one, when security forces exterminated thirteen hardcore terrorists in three different encounters in the valley. Out of 13 terrorists one was Pakistani while other 12 were local Kashmiris. Three Army personnel were also martyred in the fierce encounter which started on March 31 night and concluded on April 1.

The Intelligence Bureau provided confirmed information about the hideouts of the terrorists consequently security forces were not deterred when Pakistan sponsored stone-pelters gathered at the sight of encounters with disingenuous intention to disrupt the operations so that encircled terrorists can escape. Intelligence reports confirm that ISI has created more than 300 WhatsApp groups and one group contains about 350 persons and when security forces cordon the hideouts of terrorists the handling officers of the WhatsApp groups sitting in Pakistan sends messages to their lackeys to assemble at operational areas to disturb and interrupt security forces. The security forces had to use pellet guns to control the unruly mob, in which four civilians were killed and about sixty stone-pelters were injured.

In these operations security forces also arrested one terrorist which may be very fruitful. First of all the arrested terrorist might give significant information during interrogation and it also proves that security forces do not intend to exterminate the terrorists and if terrorists surrender they can save their lives. Not only this, in Dialgam encounter security forces tried that the terrorists surrender and they also took the family members of one Jihadist who talked the terrorist but the latter refused to surrender as they were convinced that if they die during Jihad they would go to heaven.

Both Lt. Gen. A.K.Bhatt Corps Commander of XV Corps and Jammu and Kashmir DGP S P Vaid stated in the press conference that it was a major counter-offensive operation against terrorist outfits in Kashmir in which memorable success was achieved.

The political leaders and policy planners must consider that out of killed 13 terrorists about 12 were local Kashmiris which may an indication that Pakistan and secessionists are able to recruit more local unemployed youths which is an unfortunate trend.

The decimated terrorists were responsible for numerous terrorist activities in the valley including deplorable killing of Lieutenant Umar Fayaz.

The current operation was a big setback not only to Pakistan supported terrorist outfits like Lashker-e-Toiba, Hizbul Mujahideen but to separatist leaders also. J&K Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti not only expressed her sorrow over the death of civilians but also visited to the house of 22 year slain civilian at Kangan in Ganderbal.

The secessionist leaders on behest of Pakistan took advantage of the killings of local Kashmiri youths and called for a two days strike in the valley. The call was given by Joint Resistance Leadership (JRL) which consists of Syed Ali Shah Geelani, Yasin Malik and Mirwaiz Umar Farooq. The JRL asked Kashmiris to suspend business, close markets and educational institutions and offer funeral prayers. The public transport, educational institutions and markets remained closed in response of strike call. Heavy contingents of police force were posted in the valley to deal the situation. As Pakistan backed secessionists wanted to carry out some terrorist activities during Bund government imposed several restrictions on the movement of locals. Separatist leaders including Syed Ali Shah Geelani and Mirwaiz Farooq were placed under house arrest while Yasin Malik was arrested. Government has also snapped internet services in troubled areas of Kashmir as preventive measures.

The sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) is worried as security forces are working under a long term plan to eradicate terrorism from the valley so that long lasting peace can be established. Under Operation All-Out (OAO) multiple security agencies including Army, CRPF, J&K Police, Border Security Force (BSF), Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) are working together against secessionists as well as various terrorist outfits including Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Hizbul Mujahideen, Al-Badr etc. The operation All Out was planned by Ministry of Home Affairs and Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor and former IB Chief is closely supervising the operation. In the operation security forces exterminated about 206 terrorists in 2017 while 55 terrorists are already eliminated up to April 1, 2018. The operation was launched after meticulous planning by security organisations especially by all the intelligence organisations operating in the state. The intelligence organisations chalked out a district wise plan mentioning the names of terrorists, support agents, hideouts and if possible the weapons possessed by terrorists.

As security forces are eliminating terrorists Pakistan has enhanced infiltration of new terrorists and to support infiltration they also increased ceasefire violations. According to analysts Pakistan made 270 infiltration attempts in 2016 which enhanced to 310 in 2017 while in 2018 the infiltration is much more as according to media reports there are frequent encounters on the borders and Indian security forces are successfully killing the intruders. Pakistan has enhanced ceasefire violations, as in 2016 there were 449 violations only but in 2017 the number crossed 800 which also indicates that India’s Western neighbour is becoming impatient as more and more terrorists are eliminated in the valley. On the other hand Pakistan Foreign Office spokesman alleged that India has enhanced the ceasefire violations and in 2017 there were 1300 ceasefire violations by Indian forces in which 52 Pakistanis were killed while 175 were injured.

Security forces have exterminated large number of terrorists and neutralised several Over Ground Workers (OGWs) but neither the peace was restored nor the sway of separatists declined. The interlocutor Dineshwar Sharma also could not break ice with separatists as their handlers sitting across the border are not interested in restoring the peace in the valley.

Government should try to win the confidence of the masses and in these effort patriot political leaders, intellectuals, professors etc. can be of great help. These good intentioned people must convince the local Kashmiris about the futility of fighting with Indian forces. These patriots should also expose the separatist leaders, as they have settled their children out of Kashmir while instigate children of others to face guns. Not only this, condition of residents of Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK) is pitiable and J&K does not have enough resources to become an independent country. Pakistan is financing the separatist leaders and they are creating disturbances in the valley to fulfill their personal interests.

Sadbhavana rallies of security forces are also welcomed by masses and it enhanced the goodwill of security forces. Government should also recruit more persons from J&K as it will also reduce animosity towards security forces.

Government should immediately stop the misuse of mosques, there are reports that in few mosques separatists deliver fiery speeches against India and the loud speakers are utilized to spread anti-India feelings. Efforts should be made to bring back Sufi culture of the state.

Pakistan has waged a low intensity war against India and all efforts of peaceful negotiation were failed hence India must destroy terrorist training centres well inside POK. At present Indian security forces are exterminated infiltrators who are low level terrorists. Indian intelligence agencies should launch special operations so that leaders of terrorist outfits and their trainers are eliminated. If intelligence agencies fail to launch special operations then Air Force should be used to demolish training centres. Indian leaders should make it clear that they are not afraid of nuclear warheads as in nuclear war Pakistan would be completely ruined.

National Investigation Agency (NIA) which was created to curb terrorism is investigating the devious businessmen who were financing the terrorist outfits, if NIA succeeds in curbing the finance of secessionists it will be a big blow to the secessionist movement as most of the separatist leaders are not working for principles but working for money.

India should also re-examine Indus Water Treaty and should withdraw Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status from Pakistan as it has not reciprocated from last about 24 years.

India should also investigate the background of so called human right activists who criticise and condemn security forces but do not utter a single word when Indian soldiers are martyred. India must continue isolating Pakistan from world arena although it will not be easy but it will give dividend as recently US President Donald Trump has suspended financial assistance to Pakistan.

The present government should also initiate a national debate about revocation of article 370 and must generate the conditions so that persons, who left Kashmir because of terrorists, return back to the valley. The persons and parties who oppose the return of Kashmiris left the valley under duress or oppose the revocation of article 370 must be exposed to the nation.

 (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Home » Spotlight » Pakistan army performs dastardly acts through BAT

Pakistan Army Performs Dastardly Acts Through BAT

New Delhi. 02 March 2018. The reprehensible Border Action Team (BAT) which was first noticed in August 2013 was constituted to dominate the Line of Control (LoC) and carryout ignominious acts, with ulterior motive to demoralize Indian security forces. BAT commandos cross LoC and enter in Indian Territory and execute some ghastly acts which any professional army will be ashamed to do. The dishonourable acts include abduction, mutilation of bodies and beheading of Indian soldiers or civilians, chopping off nose or ears of dead Indians etc.

The LoC is not demarcated and there are no fencing or boundary pillars. There is only imaginary line, although there are few landmarks like water bodies, rocks, grown up trees etc. nonetheless these landmarks change with passage of time. Here the armies of both the countries face each other, which give the nefarious BAT, opportunities to target Indian security forces especially patrol and Indian citizens.

It is not practical to post security personnel on every meter and there are gaps, may be because of geographical conditions or may be because paucity of manpower. BATs exploit these gaps for infiltrating terrorists and apprehending Indian security personnel who are patrolling the area. Generally they attack Indian patrols while they go towards the forward posts ahead of fencing.  Several times BAT also uses explosives and bombs to assist infiltration of terrorists. Pakistan has no fencing as India does not infiltrate terrorists hence BAT easily moves in Indian side ahead of fencings.

The information about the presence of BAT in Pakistani posts alarms Indian pickets and the patrols had to be strengthened as small patrols can be targeted by BAT, movement of logistics needs more security personnel and these measures enhances the gaps between patrols which is exploited by infiltrators.

BAT consists of mainly commandos of Special Services Group (SSG), however they have also included some brutal Islamic Jihadists of diverse terrorist outfits including Lashker-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Harakatul Mujahideen etc. The terrorists and SSG personnel after selection are given special training in guerilla warfare, jungle warfare and are also trained with Army and Air Force especially in intense environment.  They are also trained in laying ambushes and the snipers in the team can target Indian artillery positions.

BAT which consists of four to six persons plans the operations quite minutely before launching. First they make reconnaissance of the area and adjudge the time and strength of Patrol of Indian security forces. Pakistan Rangers extend their full support and provide cover to BAT teams by firing guns and mortars. Generally BAT takes action at the time of handing and taking over of units as at that time people are busy in several administrative works.

Personnel of BAT are equipped with AK-47 Rifles, shotguns, rocket launchers, grenades,  petrol bombs, ‘special daggers’, energy food, satellite phones, upgraded GPS system, snow clothing including boots etc. so that they can carry out the grisly acts.

BAT, which has full support from Pakistani army, carried out appalling acts several times. In January 2013 Lance Naik Hemraj was beheaded while in October and November 2016 bodies of Indian soldiers were disfigured. Again in May 2017 BAT entered Indian Territory and mutilated two soldiers in Krishna Ghati sector. In June 2017 BAT again killed two Indian soldiers but India in reprisal immediately killed two BAT commandos. Recently on February 19 Indian security personnel killed one BAT commando and grievously injured two more in Gulpur area on the border. Before the entry of BAT Pakistani troops resorted to unprovoked heavy firing of small arms, mortars etc to distract Indian troops but now Indian troops are aware the technique and responded the heavy firing and also killed BAT commando.

Pakistani terrorists were involved in these types of horrendous acts before also. Initially BAT launched clandestine operations but after sometime the operations were exposed and became counter-productive as mutilating the bodies of Indian soldiers further deteriorated relations between India and Pakistan

Pakistan claims that BAT is a figment of imagination of Indian media and Pakistan army is a professional force and it would never resort to these types of ghastly acts. However it is an open secret that BAT is a creation of sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and it has full blessings of the Pakistan Army. ISI has included few terrorists in BAT so that when BAT members are killed or apprehended they claim that they were non-state actors and Army has no role to play in it.

BAT has put pressure on the Indian security forces as they enter in Indian Territory and abduct and mutilate the bodies of personnel of security forces. In fact entering in Indian Territory tantamount to surgical strike, as Pakistani security forces under the garb of BAT are conducting surgical strikes, India has full right to retaliate.

India had already carried out one surgical strike in Myanmar and other in Pakistan and both had positive results. Surgical strike in Myanmar gave a stern message to the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) that the present government will take stringent action if they continue to launch terrorist actions in India.

In a surgical strike in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) on September 29, 2015 the valiant Indian army personnel destroyed seven launching pads and killed more than 40 Pakistanis including terrorists, guides and their trainers who were from Pakistan army.

Now Indian army must plan surgical strikes on terrorist training camps so that leaders of terrorists and high level army personnel who are supervising the training and recruitment of terrorists are killed. Extermination of terrorist leaders and senior army officers will give a blunt message that now India is changed and it will not tolerate infiltration of terrorists or unpardonable acts of BAT against our security personnel.

The surgical strikes even deep inside POK will not be unlawful as POK is part of India which is illegally occupied by Islamabad. Pakistan army knows that they cannot defeat Indian army in conventional war and New Delhi will have to give a clear message that India is not afraid of their nuclear warheads and if it will not stop low intensity war, Indian forces will enter in Pakistan and will demolish the training camps.

However surgical strikes that too deep inside enemy territory against army supported terrorists needs meticulous and comprehensive planning as Pakistan army which projects itself as the saviour of the country have to retaliate. The terrorist training camps are temporary constructions hence Indian intelligence agencies have to collect accurate and timely information so that action can be taken. Air Force and army should also be ready for the worst but surgical strikes deep inside terrorist camps are essential if Delhi wants to prevent killings of our brave security personnel and constant bleeding of the country by Pakistan sponsored terrorists.

In case surgical strike by army is difficult, Indian Air Force should demolish the terrorist training camps. The information can be collected through technical gadgets. Special operations can also be launched to collect specific information about terrorists training camps. There can be joint operation of Army and Air Force against terrorist camps.

These surgical strikes will demoralise Pakistan army, sinister ISI, BAT and also the terrorists. It will also shatter the myth that Indian forces will not cross the border and terrorist training camps are safe.

Senior Officers of Pakistan army who have amassed illegal money in the country and abroad may not like to go for a full-fledged conventional war. They may augment terrorist attacks on important Indian installations but India is already facing the low intensity war hence it may not be of much significance.

Besides surgical strikes India should also take some other important actions such as withdrawal of Most Favoured Nations (MFN) status. Delhi should start making efforts so that we can use 20 percent water share under Indus Water Treaty.

Indian political leaders must understand that there can be no truce between India and Pakistan as the survival of latter is on hate India campaign. Both countries are negotiating directly or indirectly from last seventy years but the talks were fruitless for Delhi though Islamabad was able to create a lobby which presses India for peaceful negotiations after overlooking Pakistan’s warlike actions.   Hence India instead of wasting time and energy in dialogue should try to weaken Pakistan so much that it cannot dare to fight against India even if China instigates it.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

THE PIONEER

TUESDAY, 27 FEBRUARY 2018 | 11:08:37 AM

http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/oped/cpec-a-debt-trap-for-pakistan.html

CPEC: A DEBT-TRAP FOR PAKISTAN

Tuesday, 27 February 2018 | Jai Kumar Verma | in Oped5

It is in the interest of Pakistan to study the pros and cons of the CPEC. China has been conveniently using its neighbouring countries to expand its influence

Communist China, which has hegemonic designs against neighbouring countries, is exploiting Pakistan’s abhorrence towards India. Pakistan, which was carved out from India on the basis of a failed two-nation theory, wants to take revenge from its eastern neighbour, as it alleges that it was dissected because of India.

China, which views India as a potential rival, assists Pakistan militarily, financially and diplomatically. Pakistani authorities projected the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as an extremely advantageous project which will end all its economic tribulations and the country will move rapidly towards the path of economic prosperity.

Islamabad, which claims that “China is Pakistan’s irreplaceable all-weather friend”, has not evaluated the pros and cons of the CPEC and the contents of the project were not even disclosed to the public. On the other hand, the China Development Bank and the National Development and Reform Commission, after analysing it thoroughly, in a detailed report said that the CPEC is an important part of the One Belt and One Road (OBOR) initiative.

Nevertheless, as things are unfolding, it is becoming clear that China, through CPEC, would snatch several assets of Pakistan and will reduce it to a Chinese colony. China has surplus industrial capacity, unemployed technical personnel and foreign exchange, which will be utilised in CPEC. China is not giving any free money and is charging high interest rates to develop infrastructural projects in smaller countries. When these countries fail to repay the loan, it grabs those projects.

Recently, Sri Lanka was forced to lease out its Hambantota sea port for 99 years to China as it was unable to repay loan. Maldives too signed a free-trade deal with China which will be detrimental for the country in the long-run.

Analysts contradict the myth propagated by Islamabad, saying that as the cost of labour is increasing in China,  several Chinese companies may like to relocate to Pakistan and once Chinese companies operate from Pakistan, manufacturing units of other countries may put their factories in the country. No foreign companies, including Chinese companies, would reposition in Pakistan because of terrorism, poor infrastructure and non-technical manpower. 

Besides, China has built massive infrastructure in other countries but business was not conducted and the countries are facing difficulty in payment of loans.

China, which has a massive population of 1.37 billion, does not have sufficient arable land and is one of the largest importer of agricultural products. Chinese companies would capture thousand of acres of Pakistani land under the garb of mechanisation, using modern electronic gadgets to solve agricultural problems pertaining to fertilisers, seeds, livestock and supply chain.

In CPEC, a large chunk of the road and railway line would be built on Pakistan’s resources as China wants to connect its land-locked restive Province of Xinjiang from Gwadar port. Pakistan will have to repay $90 billion by 2030, which is a task easier said than done. China would also disseminate its ideology and culture in Pakistan.

In CPEC, out of the $55 billion, $35 billion will be spent on the power sector. China will be charging 17 per cent to 20 per cent guaranteed return; hence, it will recover its loan early. China will also charge Rs 8.50 per kilowatt an hour, while the reasonable rate is rupees five only. In this way, on the one hand, public will have to pay more, on the other, since there is too much of theft, the Government will not able to repay the debt.

In 2017, Pakistan had an outstanding debt of $72 billion, without the inclusion of CPEC loan. Pakistan also took loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at an interest rate of 8.75 per cent after mortgaging fixed assets like motor ways, airports, radio and television stations. 

There will be no global tenders and all contracts would be given to Chinese companies, which might charge more and may also use sub-standard material as there will be no competition.

All Chinese companies have obtained tax concessions. Hence, neither will Islamabad earn money from taxes nor will the Pakistanis get employment as they do not have sufficient skilled manpower. Companies in China mostly employ Chinese workers.  Beijing would dump cheap goods in Pakistan and would destroy local industries. Pakistani industries will also fail to compete because of augmented electricity rates and excessive taxation.

Pakistan’s economic growth is 3.1 per cent only, which is less for a developing country.  Islamabad will fail to pay interest as well as principal amount. China is aware of it and will certainly capture several assets of Pakistan. The gap between imports and exports is increasing and the trade deficit is around $24 billion which is more than 200 per cent of Pakistan’s exports. Foreign remittances, which are an important source of foreign exchange, have also dwindled because of sharp decline in oil prices. 

 The Pakistan Army has raised two security divisions only to safeguard the Chinese as maintenance and security of the CPEC is the responsibility of Pakistan and it would be an additional burden. 

China would be constructing coal-based power plants under the CPEC which would be harmful for both environment and health.

Pakistan has hostile relations with all its neighbours, including India, Afghanistan and Shia Iran. It has cordial relations only with China. CPEC will be difficult without friendly relations with neighbouring countries. Corruption would be a major hurdle in the success of CPEC. There is rampant corruption in all Pakistani institutions and there will be misappropriation of funds at every step.

China is careful about its investments and will be quite tough in realising its money back. Islamabad signed the CPEC considering that it will be beneficial for the country but it signed an unfair deal for which the country will have to suffer.

Beijing wants to occupy Pakistan’s immovable assets, including Gwadar port, and hence, it will not allow CPEC to be a profit-making venture for Pakistan. The reports are emanating that in view of resistance from the public, and assessments and analysis of economists, the euphoria about CPEC is evaporating. Therefore, now China is finding it difficult to deal with the civilian Government and it wants to deal about CPEC with the Army which is much more dependent on Chinese assistance. In November 2017, China had not released funds for three major road projects and informed Islamabad that Beijing was devising new rules and regulations.

Few months back, Pakistan turned down the Chinese proposal to construct $14 billion Diamer Bhasha dam as Chinese put stringent stipulations which included the ownership of the project.  It is an indicator that Islamabad is not realising the hidden intentions of China that it wants to have permanent foothold in the country. 

In October 2016, a Pakistani senator stated that China is another East India Company and in CPEC national interests are not protected. The lawmakers raised doubt about the fixing of high tariff rates for electricity and also criticised that large number of CPEC projects were funded locally and not by foreign investments. They mentioned that the CPEC will be a “national calamity”. China would convert Pakistan to a dependent country which would look towards China for its day to day its survival.

Pakistan is isolated because of sponsoring terrorism and China is taking advantage of this. China blocked the United States proposal in the United Nations to designate Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) Chief Maulana Masood Azhar as a global terrorist. China also helped Pakistan in the recently conducted meeting of Financial Action Task Force (FATF). 

Nevertheless, Pakistan must realise that China has laid a death trap for it and the country must wriggle out before it is too late.

(The writer is member of United Services Institute of India, and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)

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WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM

An article captioned as “Honey Trap : Indian Armed Forces Need To Combat This New Enemy”can be seen on following link w.e.f. 15.02.2018

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/honey-trap-indian-armed-forces-needs-to-combat-this-new-enemy/

 

Honey Trap : Indian Armed Forces Need To Combat This New Enemy

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 15 February 2018. The NDA, IMA , AFA, Naval Academy with the best possible military training are no match to the age old strategy used by espionage  planners of using women and seduction to gather sensitive information. And the armed forces today are more gullible with the honey trap ready to catch them at the click of their mouse. Or should be more appropriate to say- at the tips of their fingers always ready to type on the smart phones.

The sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) which has waged a low intensity war against India is not only infiltrating terrorists especially in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) but also raising agents in diverse fields albeit the main target remains the armed forces.

ISI is using women for recruiting the agents and just few days back, Delhi police arrested Group Captain Arun Marwah who was successfully honey trapped by two ISI sleuths by pretending themselves as women. It is alleged that the officer was supplying classified information through WhatsApp to them. The ISI agents raised him through Facebook after professing them as models. The Air Force officer who was arrested under Official Secret Act (OSA) supplied details of training and combat exercises. Police is also investigating whether he was working alone or he has few accomplices also. The arrested officer never met his handling officers and was due to retire next year. It is unfortunate that the middle aged officer could not understand about the trap and exchanged obscene messages and photographs with his handlers which gave them leverage to blackmail him.

ISI has used women for raising Indian as sources in past also. Punjab Police arrested two Indians in 2014 when they were carrying out reconnaissance of FerozepurCantonment. Both of them told during interrogation that they were trapped by a Pakistani lady with whom they also met at Hussainwala check-post.

ISI has also raised a stenographer in a magistrate’s office in Jhansi in Utter Pradesh to cover the activities of Babina Cantonment which is the headquarters of 31st Armoured Division and is equipped with T-90 & T-72 tanks. Babina has not only an important firing range; there were also joint exercises with foreign defence forces.

ISI raised agents in different departments as well as in diverse areas. An officer of BSF intelligence wing was caught as well as Personal Assistant of a senior politician was also arrested.  Two ISI agents were nabbed near a ship building Yard at Calcutta. A retired Non Commissioned officer (NCO) was caught in Rajouri District.  An army soldier was caught in Darjeeling while ISI agents were also caught in Meerut, Delhi and Calcutta which indicates that ISI has penetrated its agents at numerous places and it is a cause of worry.

ISI infiltrates agents from Bangladesh, Nepal and several times directly from Pakistan. ISI raises agents through Indians visiting Pakistan. There are instances when ISI sleuths threatened of dire consequences to the relations of Indians in Pakistan to press their relations in India to work for them. There are also cases when Pakistanis visited their relations in India alsotried to cultivate their relations to work for Pakistan. The visiting Pakistanis allured their relations by money and also tried to exploit religious card. Nonetheless they were unsuccessful as their relations in India refused to work against their motherland.

The security agencies fear that now ISI will also try to cultivate Rohingya Muslims who are living in pitiable condition and were uprooted from Myanmar because of their religion. It is easy to use these exploited people. The analysts feel that Rohingyas may be involved in recent terrorist attack on Sunjuwan Army camp in Jammu as large numbers of Rohingya Muslims are settled in Jammu.

Besides Rohingyas the other important threat for Indian security is from Bangladesh refugees who are settled in large numbers in India. These Bangladesh refugees have also procured identity documents including voter Identity cards, Aadhar cards etc. with the connivance of corrupt officials.

It may be recalled that sometime back a Border Security Force Commandant who was posted at India-Bangladesh border was arrested and few lakh unaccounted cash was recovered from his possession. He amassed this ill-gotten money through smuggling of goods and human beings. ISI is also active in Bangladesh and these illegal immigrants can be a security risk to India. In past ISI used Bangladesh for smuggling of Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN).

The ISI officials posted in High Commission of Pakistan in New Delhi are also active in cultivating the agents, financing sleeper cells and funding the separatists. The visa form of Pakistan High Commission also contains leading questions about professionetc. of the applicant so that ISI personnel can select future targets. There are additional forms for defence personnel. Here it will not be out of point to mention that most of the employees of Consular Section of Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi are ISI officials.

Indian security agencies must keep the officers and staff of Pakistani High Commission under heavy surveillance. In fact Pakistani security agencies put cars and motor cycles in front of the houses of Indian High Commission diplomats posted in Islamabad and these security personnel intimidate and harass the Indian diplomatic staff. Indian security agencies should retaliate same way so that Pakistan High Commission personnel do not involve in nefarious activities.

Pakistan is passing through turmoil. The relations between army and civilian government are tense and although army has successfully dethroned Nawaz Sharif with the connivance of judiciary but his popularity is not diminished and his party would again win general elections scheduled to be held in July 2018. Balochistan is boiling and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), Sindh, Pakhtoon Khawa, Gilgit & Baltistanm and Waziristan want to secede whileMuhajirs, Saraikis, Hindkowans and Chitralis are fighting for more autonomy.

The financial condition of the country is deteriorating and the main foreign donor United States has suspended the financial assistance. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is also not doing well as China is apprehensive of investing money as the CPEC passes through POK and restive province of Balochistan.

Pakistan army with the intention of distracting public attention has intensified terrorist activities in Afghanistan as well as inIndia. In Afghanistan in a car bomb blast three police officers were killed on January 2 and on January 4 suicide bomber killed 20 persons while on January 20 in a daring attack on Inter-Continental hotel suicide bombers killed 40 persons and injured more than 23 people. On January 27 an ambulance loaded with explosives killed 103 persons and injured about 235 persons.

ISI sponsored groups have also intensified terrorist attacks in J&K.  On January 1 terrorist killed five CRPF personnel while on January 19 eight policemen were martyred in Pulwama while on February 10 terrorists attacked an army camp and killed about five soldiers. Again in a daring attack at Sunjwan army camp Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M) terrorists killed more than 10 persons. Besides enhancing the terrorist activities Islamabad has also intensified ceasefire violations and there are more than 240 ceasefire violations in 2018.

Joint Intelligence Bureau (JIB) which is the special wing of ISI was constituted to create disturbances in J&K while Joint Signal Intelligence Bureau is involved in sending fake messages, controlling WhatsApp and assisting Pakistan sponsored terrorists in communication. ISI is also involved in the smuggling of Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) as well as in drug smuggling. The money generated through smuggling of FICN and drugs is partially used by ISI in financing terrorist operations in India and some portion of it is usurped by ISI top brass.

The multifarious security agencies working in the country should work jointly and must share relevant information with other security agencies so that more and more ISI agents are neutralized. The arrested spies must be interrogated thoroughly so that additional information is gathered from them. In fact efforts should be made to burst the whole network of spies and it is feasible only through surveillance before arrest and by thorough interrogation. The Indian security agencies must reinforce their counter-intelligence machinery and more technical gadgets should be used.

But Pakistan is not our only matter of concern when it comes to honey trapping. China is decades ahead and does it with such smartness that many such incidences have the probability of passing unnoticed. India has this attack to combat from both the Pakistani and Chinese fronts. The military strategists and trainers need to add a chapter in their manuals on honey trapping to create an ever vigilant force.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 

THE PIONEER

WHY DEFEND THE BLUE-EYED BOY?

http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/oped/why-defend-the-blue-eyed-boy.html

MONDAY, 12 FEBRUARY 2018 | 12:15:39

COLUMNISTS

WHY DEFEND THE BLUE-EYED BOY?

Monday, 12 February 2018 | Jai Kumar Verma | in Oped5

The fact remains that despite international pressure to arrest and charge Hafiz Saeed for his crimes, the civilian Government in Pakistan remains obdurate in not taking any action against him

Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, the blue-eyed boy of the Pakistan Army, is the co-founder of theLashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT) and Chief of the Jamaat-Ud-Dawa (JuD). He is an international designated terrorist and the United Statesannounced a reward of $10 million on Saeed. He is the mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks in which more than 164 innocent civilians, including six Americans, were killed. Besides 2008 Mumbai attacks, he is also responsible for the 2006 Mumbai train bombings and attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001. Saeed is also on the most wanted list of the National Investigation Agency (NIA).

LeT is involved in numerous terrorist activities in India, including massacre of Kashmiri Pandits and Sikhs in Kashmir, which resulted in the mass exodus of non-Muslims from the Valley. It attacked Red Fort in New Delhi in 2000 and also claimed responsibility of the attack of Srinagar Airport. It is also responsible for the serial bomb blasts in Varanasi, New Delhi and Mumbai.

LeT, which is a Salafi outfit, is active in India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh and it proclaims to establish Islamic rule in the whole of region through violence and terrorist activities. It was declared a terrorist organisation by the US, Australia, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Russia and India. Pakistan had also banned it on paper but it operates openly and collects donations. Its leaders hold public meetings with the active support of the district administration.

JuD is the political wing of the LeT, which was banned by Pakistan in 2015. India, the US and Israel are the prime targets of the LeT, which is dangerous to world peace and tranquility. Relations between the US and Pakistan are becoming tense as the latter is not amending the policy of sponsoring terrorism and US President Donald Trump has formulated a stringent policy towards terrorism. Trump clearly indicated about the change in the US’ policy towards Pakistan when he mentioned that Pakistan provides “safe haven to agents of chaos, violence and terror”.

He and his Administration have warned Pakistan several times as the latter is sheltering, training and providing safe heaven to terrorists. Nonetheless, Trump gave the harshest message in his first tweet of 2018, where he mentioned that “The US has foolishly given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools.” The US has also suspended financial assistance to the rogue nation.

The Pakistan military, which is the real ruler of the country, feels that the US needs Pakistan more than it needs the US. Hence, instead of taking any punitive action on the various terrorist outfits and their leaders, Inter-services Intelligence (ISI)-sponsored Haqqani network has intensified its terrorist activities in Afghanistan.  The Haqqani network carried out two terrorist activities in war-ravaged Kabul within a week. In the first attack, the terrorists seized the Intercontinental Hotel on January 2 and killed more than 42 persons, including 14 foreigners, out of which, four were US citizens. In another attack on January 27, terrorists used ambulance and exploded bombs in a crowded area and killed 103 persons and injured more than 158, while six children and an adult was killed in a rocket attack in Ghazni Province on January 26.

China and Russia both have a sizable Muslim population, hence, they want to curb mounting influence of the Islamic State (IS) and to counter the IS, they are assisting the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan has pressurised the Taliban and soon there will be a meeting between the representatives of China, Pakistan, Qatar and others with the Taliban leadership to get an amicable solution to the present Afghan crisis. It is expected that Russia, which also wants to reinforce the Taliban against the IS, would also attend this meeting. The US has refused to participate in the meeting as it wants to curb not only the IS but also Taliban. There are reports that China is negotiating with Kabul to construct a military base in the country under the pretext of controlling the terrorists’ activities in Xinjiang region. 

Pakistan is aware that the US cannot withdraw completely from Afghanistan as in that case, terrorist outfits, like the IS and Al-Qaeda, would strengthen their bases in radicalised Afghanistan and Pakistan. The IS, which is weakened in Iraq and Syria, is in search of  a new territory and both these countries can be a stronghold of IS. Consequently, US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation troops cannot relinquish Afghanistan and it will be difficult for the US to send supplies to its forces in Afghanistan without cooperation from Pakistan. The US cannot use the Chabahar Port as its relations with Iran are also not cordial.

The United Nations Security Council’s sanctions monitoring team visited Pakistan on January 25 and 26 to assess the actions taken by Islamabad against UN-designated terrorists outfits, including LeT and JuD of Saeed. Islamabad has adopted quite uncompromising attitude as the administration wanted that the team could not gather relevant information.

Pakistan considers terrorist outfits — JuD, LeT and the Haqqani network —  as their foreign policy assets. ISI uses JuD and LeT against India, especially in Kashmir, while the Haqqani network and the Afghan Taliban are used to carry out terrorist activities in Afghanistan.

General (Retd) Pervez Musharraf termed LeT and other terrorist outfits as “freedom fighters” and Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa also defended Saeed while speaking in the Senate Committee.

Saeed delivers fiery speeches against India, the US and Israel and has a large support in the country. In the past, Pakistan authorities had arrested him and ostensibly kept him under house arrest but clandestinely, he was availing all facilities, including meeting his cohorts and hatching conspiracies against India, including infiltration of terrorists in Jammu & Kashmir.

Saeed, in August 2017, launched a new political party, namely the Milli Muslim League (MML) with the blessings of the Army. Saifullah Khalid, a close associate of Saeed, was made president of the party. He stated that the party was constituted with the object of making Pakistan a true “Islamic and welfare state”. Tabish Qayyum, a known JuD worker, became the spokesperson of the MML, and stated that the party, which would adhere to the policies of the JuD, had applied to the Election Commissioner for registration and will contest the 2018 elections.  

Analysts feel that Saeed constituted MML to resist international pressure, to collect donations and weaken Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). However, it is a dangerous trend which may have grave repercussions in the long run. At present, Saeed has a lot of following in the country, his party may even win few seats in the general election and become a coalition partner, which may be dangerous for the region.

Pakistan authorities do not want to take action against Saeed hence they took the shelter of the judiciary and the court released him in November 2017. Again, when the UNSC monitoring team was visiting Islamabad, Saeed moved the court, which restrained the Government to arrest Saeed. Although Islamabad wanted to show that they are helpless because of the orders from the judiciary, but the world is aware that Pakistani courts are worse than kangroo courts and the claim of an independent judiciary is a myth. In reality, Saeed is the poster-boy of  the Army and has large followers. Hence, the civilian Government is in no position to take any worthwhile action against him.

(The writer is member, United Services Institute of India, and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)

PAK DUPLICITY TO THE FORE 

The Pioneer 
Dated January 16, 2018

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PAK DUPLICITY TO THE FORE

Tuesday, 16 January 2018 | Jai Kumar Verma | in Oped

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Islamabad's strategy of allowing Jadhav's kin to meet him to bolster its ‘humanitarian' credentials before the ICJ has misfired given what went down.

Last year, the Pakistan Government allowed the mother and wife of Kulbhushan Jadhav to meet him on December 25, which is coincidentally the birthday of Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of that country. Although Pakistan propagated that the meeting was on humanitarian ground and in line with the idealistic principles of Islam, in reality the 40-minute meeting was allowed because of an ulterior motive and conducted against all civilised norms. Both the ladies were compelled to change their clothes and in the case of the wife remove hermangalsutra and bindi. Not only this, shoes of his wife Chetna were taken away and not returned. His mother Avanti was interrupted again and again when she was talking to Jadhav in their mother tongue, Marathi, and Pakistani officials also disrupted the communication.

Jadhav was made to sit in a glass cabin and his wife and mother talked to him through an intercom. The Indian diplomat who accompanied the ladies was forced to sit with another glass partition. Jadhav was under immense strain and it was clear that he was forced to speak in tutored sentences. The Press release of the Ministry of External Affairs stated that “the Pakistani side conducted the meeting in a manner which violated the letter and spirit of our understandings”.  The Press release further mentioned that “the Pakistani Press was allowed on multiple occasions to approach the family members closely, harass and hector them and hurl false and motivated accusations about Jadhav. This despite a clear agreement that the media would not be allowed close access.” It was barbarous that Jadhav was not allowed to touch the feet of his mother and hug his wife. In fact, it was not a meeting but a façade. Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, termed it as consular access; however, when the Indian representative objected that the meeting does not come under the purview of consular access, the Pakistani Foreign Office backed off and accepted that the meeting did not constitute consular access. 

Pakistan has launched a low intensity war against India and is assisting secessionist elements in India, especially in Kashmir. As the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is abetting diverse terrorist outfits in India and Afghanistan, and terrorists trained in Pakistan are involved in terrorist activities all over the world, Pakistan wants to malign India for assisting secessionist groups in Balochistan. Therefore, the ISI kidnapped Jadhav, a retired officer from the Indian Navy from Iran and is trying to project to the world that he was involved in espionage and terrorist activities in Balochistan. Although former German Ambassador to Pakistan Gunter Mulack stated that Jadhav was caught by the Taliban in Iran and sold to ISI, another knowledgeable Afghan journalist also reported that Jadhav was caught by smugglers in Iran and later the ISI purchased him from them.

As Jadhav was involved in lawful business and was abducted from Iran, hence, the ISI had no authentic proof about the involvement of Jadhav in espionage and terrorist activities, which could withstand in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Pakistan's Field General Court Martial sentenced Jadhav on the basis of his confessions which were obtained through torture and coercion. Various videos showed by Pakistani TV channels about confessions of Jadhav clearly indicate that the videos were concocted; there were several cuts in the videos. The military court, which awarded death sentence, is worse than Kangroo courts. 

In the 21st century, civilised countries do not award death sentences even to spies, except in wartime. Although relations between India and Pakistan are tense, but the countries are not at war, hence, death sentence was gratuitous. Analysts claim that the military court awarded death sentence to Jadhav as Lt Colonel (Retd) Muhammad Habib Zahir, who was working in the ISI, disappeared from Lumbini in Nepal near the Indo-Nepal border. His family members filed a report with the local police that he was kidnapped by Indian Intelligence agencies. The Indian authorities immediately denied this fabricated allegation. It appears that Zahir was on some anti-India mission, hence, the ISI became worried about his disappearance and the military court announced the death sentence to Jadhav to put pressure on India even though it did not have credible evidence against Jadhav. In December 2016, Sartaz Aziz, Advisor of Prime Minister of Pakistan, stated that the dossier of Jadhav contains more or less his confessions only.

The family of Jadhav was allowed to meet him after 22 months of his arrest, the birthday of Jinnah had fallen before also, but authorities in Pakistan had not allowed the meeting. Analysts mention that on December 25, 2016, the signs of torture on Jadhav were so visible that the meeting could not be arranged.

Pakistan’s full case is based on the confessions of Jadhav and Pakistani authorities extracted these confessions through extreme torture. Second, now they need more evidences against Jadhav as the case is with the ICJ. By allowing the meeting, Pakistan wanted to impress upon the ICJ its humanitarian approach. On the other hand, it briefed its journalists to ask pointed questions so that they can fill the missing gaps through answers from the family members.

Besides, Islamabad is also using this meeting for propaganda purposes. It has released several videos of the meeting and also released the video where Jadhav was thanking the Pakistan Government for the meeting. By these videos, the Pakistan Government wants to impress the international community that it is such a munificent country that it has allowed the wife and mother to meet Jadhav.  But the propaganda of Pakistan is exposed as it is not providing consular access to Jadhav, which is his right. In the consular access, the Indian High Commission official will meet Jadhav without glass screen and can talk much more freely. Jadhav can also tell the official about the inhuman behaviour of Pakistani security agencies. This is why Pakistan is not allowing consular access and has made a façade of meeting with the family members.

Mohd Faisal, spokesman of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, alleged in a Press conference that Jadhav has confessed before a magistrate and court that he was tasked by the Indian intelligence agency “to plan, coordinate and organise espionage, terrorism and sabotage aiming to destabilise and wage war against Pakistan.” Faisal also claimed Jadhav he was caught “red-handed”. The good points of the meeting are that it confirmed that Jadhav is alive and Faisal, Pakistan spokesperson mentioned that it is not the last meeting.

But it is clear that Pakistan is using this meeting for misinformation and projecting itself as a liberal country. Indian diplomatic missions abroad must counter this false and mischievous propaganda and impress upon the international community that Pakistan is a terrorist country and perpetually infiltrating terrorists in India and Afghanistan. They have abducted an innocent Indian from Iran and are projecting him as a spy and saboteur. They have not given consular access and meeting with his family members after 22 months was a shame on any civilised and democratic country.

(The writer is member, United Services Institute of India, and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)

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US Led World Reprimands Pakistan For Protecting Hafiz Saeed

 

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/us-led-world-reprimands-pakistan-protecting-hafiz-saeed/

 

By JK Verma

·         Trump cautioned Pakistan against release of the terrorist

·         Pakistan Army defends its blue-eyed boy

New Delhi. 27 December 2017. House No. 116E, Mohalla Johar, Lahore, Tehsil, Lahore City, Lahore District, Pakistan- an address which houses the most wanted not only for India but also for the world of today. Hafiz Saeed who is the Chief of Jammat-ud-Dawa (J-u-D) and founder member of Lashker-e-Toiba (L-e-T) was officially released from this house after a house arrest last month.

US President Donald Trump who has adopted a stringent posture against terrorism has warned Pakistan numerous times not to provide safe-haven to terrorists. He again cautioned Pakistan about the release of “notorious terrorist” Hafiz Saeed. Sarah Huckabee Sanders the press secretary of US president issued a statement recently that “If Pakistan does not take action to lawfully detain Saeed and charge him for his crimes; its inaction will have repercussions for bilateral relations and for Pakistan’s global reputation.”

The hard-hitting press release further mentions that if Pakistan would not stop protecting terrorists it would be a great looser. Trump’s South Asia policy is against terrorism and it expects that Pakistan would stop its policy of harbouring diverse terrorist outfits and would take harsh actions against terrorist organisations which are active in the country. These terrorist outfits are a great danger to the whole world especially to the region. The release of L-e-T leader and mastermind of November 2008 Mumbai attacks in which about 166 persons including six Americans were killed and about 308 innocent persons were injured is certainly a step on wrong direction. It clearly indicates that Pakistan is not sincere in its fight against terrorism.

Again on December 20, after the reports surfaced that Hafiz Saeed has constituted a political party and would contest general elections the spokes person of State Department Heather Nauert told press “I want to remind folks we have a $10 million Reward” for Hafiz Saeed and US have “concerns about him running for office”. He further mentioned that US is ready to share intelligence about Hafiz Saeed with Pakistan government so that they can punish him.

In contrast to previous US Presidents, Trump has adopted a stringent policy against terrorism and against Pakistan which sponsors terrorism. The earlier US administration gave long rope to Pakistan although it had ample evidence that the country was abetting terrorism and there are diverse terrorist outfits which were either created or assisted by Inter Service Intelligence (ISI). The rogue intelligence agency as well as terrorist outfits sponsored by it are running various terrorist training centres at several places especially in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and in The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). In these training centres training was given by serving or retired Pakistan army personnel. The preceding US governments thought that if they would abandon Pakistan and stop financial assistance the country may become a rogue state and the terrorists would get a free hand in the state.

Nevertheless Trump administration took bold step and all the bigwigs boldly and constantly cautioning Pakistan to amend its ways. These honest and blunt statements of President and other important US officials took Pakistan to the corner and slowly and steadily it is being isolated. Even the 9th BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit hosted by China at Xiamen in September 2017 had to include the names of L-e-T and Jaish-e-Mohammed as terrorist organisations.

L-e-T is a banned terrorist organisation and there is a reward of USD 10 million on Hafiz Saeed hence he must be arrested immediately. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1267 in December 2008 and US Department of Treasury designated Saeed a Specially Designated Global Terrorist.

The Trump administration has issued tough and threatening warnings to Pakistan but nothing tangible has emerged so far. Hence Trump administration must do something substantial for example US should withdraw Pakistan’s status of a non-NATO ally as withdrawal would forfeit few military and financial benefits given to Pakistan. US can also proclaim Pakistan as sponsor of terrorism. US has already announced some cuts in financial assistance and refusal of Pakistan’s demand for subsidize sale of F-16 fighter planes but these measures are not enough.

In fact there is a strong demand in US to stop assistance to Pakistan as it is assisting various terrorist outfits including Haqqani group which is constantly attacking US led NATO troops in Afghanistan. A recent Pentagon report specifically mentions that Taliban and Haqqani Network have full freedom to operate in Pakistan and the terrorist outfits also get assistance from Pakistan government. The report further mentions that although Pakistan government has destroyed few terrorist camps but these terrorist outfits have established camps at other places and operating from relocated camps. The report clearly mentions that several terrorist groups including Haqqani Network, L-e-T, Al Qaeda, Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), Islamic State (IS), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan are active in Pakistan and sinister ISI assists them.

Although several countries of the world including US and India criticised, release of J-u-D Chief Hafiz Saeed from house arrest but the notorious terrorist which has full support of all powerful Pakistani army was freed in November. Army and its intelligence wing ISI have launched a low intensity war against India and they are involved in carrying out terrorist activities in whole of India especially in Jammu & Kashmir and Hafiz Saeed and his outfits are implementing the dictates of ISI.

Few days back Pakistan army Chief General Qammar Javed Bajwa in an “in-camera-session” of the Senate Committee session reiterated that Hafiz Saeed can play “an active role” in resolving Kashmir issue. General Bajwa gave this statement just few days after the statement of General Pervez Musharraf (Retd) mastermind of Kargil war that L-e-T and J-u-D are patriotic parties and he would be happy to form alliance with these parties for “safety and security” of the country. General Musharraf likes to come back to Pakistan after forging alliance from these terrorist organisations.

Hafiz Saeed constituted Milli Muslim League (MML) a political party which will contest 2018 general election in Pakistan. The election commissioner refused to register MML as a political party but Pakistan watchers mention that election commissioner has refused because of international pressure but soon the party under same or changed name would be registered as MML was created by Pakistan army to counter Pakistan Muslim League (N) in the forthcoming elections. Sheikh Yaqoob contested recently held by- elections in Lahore against Begum Kulsum. The seat was fallen vacant as former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was disqualified. The religious fervor is increasing in Pakistan as in the election two candidates of religious parties secured 11 percent votes minimizing the vote share of PML (N). Sheikh Yaqoob who was designated a terrorist in 2012 by USA secured 5 percent of votes which also expresses the mood of the nation.

MML which is waiting for registration declared that it will contest another by-poll scheduled to be held in Peshawar next month. Mosques were also used in the election campaign and MML campaign was well organised and there was no dearth of finance. Sheikh Yaqoob stated that his party is encouraged by the election results and will contest all seats in 2018 general elections after registration of the party. He mentioned that common Pakistani want merger of Kashmir and stringent actions against USA and India. Fundamentalism has increased manifold in Pakistan and mosques would play vital role in elections hence in other elections MML would certainly win few seats and can share power with other parties. If MML share power then besides controlling foreign policy towards India, USA and Israel it will also control nuclear warheads which will be a dangerous phenomenon.

ISI has created few terrorist outfits to carryout terrorist activities in India and Afghanistan now it wants that these groups should be inducted in politics. ISI also gave this proposal to Prime Minister Sharif but he rejected it. Now the rogue intelligence agency is implementing it after ouster of Sharif. ISI proposes that once these terrorist leaders join active politics they would leave terrorism. MML was constituted within two weeks of ouster of Sharif.

Besides Saeed another US designated terrorist Fazlur Rehman Khalil of Ansar-ul-Umma also told to constitute a new political party as he mentioned that Pakistan needs “patriotic” persons. The leaders of these fanatic parties would survive on anti-India slogans and India-Pakistan relations would deteriorate further. These parties would impose primitive form of Islam ruthlessly in Pakistan and proclaim that they would spread Islam in whole region including India. Fundamentalism would enhance in the country and the atrocities on minorities and Shias would enhance. Terrorist outfits which toe the line of ISI would be given more liberal assistance hence the attacks on US led NATO troops in Afghanistan would increase and these terrorist outfits would try to carry out more terrorist activities in Kashmir hence the chances of war between India and Pakistan would also enhance.

Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com

 

 

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RECOGNISING THE ENEMY WITHIN

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COLUMNISTS

RECOGNISING THE ENEMY WITHIN

Tuesday, 31 October 2017 | Jai Kumar Verma | in Oped

That madrassas in Pakistan are breeding grounds for terrorism is now an established fact. The need of the hour is to clamp down on these institutions. The Government must get tough

In Pakistan, madrassas are the breeding grounds of terrorism and also for top leaders of different terrorist outfits over there.   These madrassaswork as factories to produce jihadists, including suicide bombers. Diverse factions have their own separate madrassas. For example, there are Sunni Ahl-e-Sunnat (Barelvi), Deobandi, Salafi, Wahhabi and Shia madrassas. Maximum numbers of madrassas are controlled by Deobandi (65 per cent) and Barelvi (30 per cent) factions. These madrassas of different sects not only spread hatred towards each other but they are also involved in carrying out terrorist activities against other sects and export terrorists abroad.

There is a close link between these madrassas and various jihadist outfits and these jihadist organisations produce and distribute literature full of abhorrence and hatred towards other religions and sects, including Shias and Sufis. The madrassas also preach that ‘suicide bombers’ are jihadists who would go to heaven. 

Madrassas are mainly responsible for radicalisation of the Pakistani society. In 1947, when Pakistan was carved out from India, there were only 246 madrassas. However, at present, there are more than 28,000 registered madrassas, while the numbers of unregistered madrassas are much more. As the number of madrassas enhance manifold, same way extremism also increases leaps and bounds.  According to rough estimates, about half million to two million students are enrolled in these madrassas and most of them are thoroughly radicalised during their stay with these religious seminaries.

In most Islamic countries, the Government formulates the rules and regulations for these madrassas so that they do not produce jihadists. But in Pakistan, whenever the Government tried to formulate policy to govern the madrassas, there was resistance and the Government could not streamline the functioning of these seminaries. Large numbers of madrassas have refused to register themselves with the Government. The Government’s efforts to introduce modern scientific syllabus was resisted by madrassas as well as by Islamic parties. These madrassas consider themselves above law and most foreign students stay here even after expiry of their visas and law enforcing authorities cannot arrest them till they are associated with the madrassas.  

Most students join these religious seminaries because of poverty as their parents cannot afford to send them in other educational institutions. Large numbers of madrassas not only provide free education but also give them free food and lodging. These madrassas survive on aid, private donations and Waqf (religious donations) as well as on the rent of landed properties attached to these madrassas. The Government also gives some portion of zakaat (Islamic alms) to the madrassas controlled by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and other terrorist outfits like the Lashkar-e-Tayyeeba, Jaish-e-Mohammed etc.

The Pakistani Army, which has wedged a low intensity war against India and Afghanistan, also does not want stringent restrictions on madrassas, as the ISI as well as ISI-controlled terrorist organisations are recruiting suicide bombers and other jihadists from these madrassas.  Besides students, criminals too are taking shelter in these madrassas as they are safe in these religious seminaries. Hence, there are cases where residents of these madrassas were involved in kidnapping, pillage, loot and rape and also other monstrous crimes. 

Large numbers of students, when they pass-out from the madrassas, do not get jobs as they are not qualified for the same. The students just learn reciting of the Quran and Islamic tenets which are not suffice to get job. When students do not get jobs, they become hostile towards society and join terrorist outfits.

Madrassas also teach hatred towards India, Israel, Western countries as well as towards other sects. The students who come out from the madrassas are so radicalised that they too convert their family members, neighbours and many others into extremism.  The Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam and other political parties utilise the students and teachers of these madrassas for show of strength in demonstrations and processions.

Extremism has enhanced manifold in society in Pakistan and sometimes, extremists force well-to-do-parents to send their children in madrassas. Students of several other countries, including Afghanistan, few Central Asian countries, Uygur Muslims from China, Muslims from South East Asian countries and members of Pakistani Diaspora also join these madrassas. 

The Government could not audit the accounts of the madrassas which are fomenting terrorism in the country but it audited the accounts of all other educational institutions, including moderate schools. Madrassas allege that the Government wants to control them on behest of the United States and other Western powers.  As radicalisation has enhanced in the country, a large section of fanatic Muslims feel that madrassas are essential for the spread of Islam and very soon they will establish the Islamic State of Khorasan, for which several Muslim countries are donating liberally.

The Islamic State (IS), which is fast losing ground in Syria and Iraq, very intelligently announced the formation of the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) in January 2015. The ISKP, which represents the Salafi school of thought, gave a new impetus to hard-core extremist Muslims all over the world, especially in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The IS has influence in India and Bangladesh too, although at present, it is in infancy stage but if not given due attention it may enhance. Once the ISKP was constituted, terrorists of diverse outfits joined the organisation and its influence in radicalised Pakistan increased manifold.

According to an estimate, the IS has about 20,000 cadres in Pakistan and Afghanistan and large number of them studied in madrassas. These madrassas have brain-washed them up to the extent that they are convinced that soon the ISKP would be established in South Asia and whole region would be governed by Sharia’h laws. These madrassas also assist terrorists to distribute leaflets and pamphlets in Urdu, Pashtu and Persian languages to attract young jihadists.

Terrorism has damaged Pakistan and the economic condition is in shambles. Export is declining and public debt has crossed Rs 18 trillion, which is hazardous. Population growth of the country is the highest in the region. In the world arena, Pakistan is marginalised because of terrorism. US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, also threatened Pakistan to root out terrorists from safe-heavens otherwise the US will have to take drastic action.

The Pakistani Government must chalk out a comprehensive plan to deradicalise the society, and for this, reforms in madrassas are essential. First, madrassas must be registered and their accounts should be thoroughly audited by competent authorities. Funding of these madrassas must be verified and approved by the Government. The curriculum of these madrassas should be checked and modern scientific education should be included in the syllabus. Education should be job oriented so that when students pass out from these madrassas, they get respectable jobs and are not attracted by false propaganda of terrorist organisations. Moderate Muslim clerics should be appointed in these madrassas and instead of extremism they should teach good points of Islam and acts of terrorists must be condemned. They should be told that killing of innocent persons even of different religion and sects does not constitute jihad.

According to reports, several Muslim countries finance these madrassas as per their ideology which augments division in the society. The Government must put stringent restrictions on the funding of the madrassas on the basis of sects and sub-sects.  The military-controlled ISI, which also runs several madrassas, and from where they send jihadists to India and Afghanistan, should be closed as the madrassasare harming more to Pakistan then to the neighbouring countries. Pakistan security agencies should also chalk out a plan to handle large number of battle-hardened madrassas educated terrorists who would be returning from Syria and Iraq as the IS is fighting a lost battle in these countries.

 (The writer is member, United Services Institute of India, and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)

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Surgical Strike In POK Has Set The Trend In The Minds Of The Nation

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·                India remembers the operation with pride

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 29 September 2017. A year since the nation basked in reflected glory of the brave soldiers’ of the Special Forces of the Indian Army, having undertaken successfully the operation of the 21^st century to date and the country’s latest buzzword is surgical strikes.

India is celebrating the first anniversary of the surgical strike of September 29 2016,in which the valiant soldiers of Indian army entered Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and destroyed 7 launching pads and killed approximately 40 Pakistanis including terrorists, guides and instructors who belonged to Pakistan army.  The attack was so sudden and unexpected that the terrorists and their instructors although fully armed could not react and were killed like a sitting duck. The biggest success of the surgical strike was that there was no casualty or injury to heroic Indian soldiers.

The surgical strike had far reaching effects. Pakistani army outright denied about the surgical strike while the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif termed it as “naked aggression”. Army denied the surgical strike as it was not in the position to retaliate because it may provoke an all out war and Pakistan which was already defeated thrice in conventional war cannot afford to have a full-fledged war.

When India conducted a surgical strike first time in Myanmar on June 10, 2015 Pakistani leaders and army threatened that there will be dire consequences if India made any such effort on its Western borders as Pakistan is a nuclear state. India gave a befitting reply to Pakistani leaders and to all dominant army in September 2016 by conducting a surgical strike. After the surgical strike no Pakistani leader threatened India about use of nuclear warheads.

Here it will not be out of point to mention that Indian forces without crossing Myanmar borders, in the wee hours of September 27, 2017 destroyed the camp of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) and killed the insurgents. Indian security forces received the intelligence input that the terrorists of NSCN (K) are present near India-Myanmar order and intends to attack Indian security forces. The NSCN (K) terrorists were heavily armed and attacked Indian troops. The Indian army reacted immediately and in retaliatory fire killed several terrorists, although the Eastern Command has not mentioned the number of terrorists exterminated in the operation. The remaining terrorists who were well versed with the terrain of the area immediately escaped. Indian army also clarified that there was no casualty or grievous injury to Indian troops.

On the other hand Isac Sumi the spokesman of NSCN (K) posted on Facebook that when Indian army attacked their camp at Langkhu Village, the NSCN(K) retaliated and in exchange of fire they killed more than three Indian soldiers and injured several others.

Here it is important that NSCN (K) is losing ground as after the surgical strike of 2015 the terrorist outfit could not carry out any major terrorist activity in India. Hence it wanted to attack Indian troops but as Indian security forces including intelligence agencies have become pro-active, they got prior information about the attack and the location of their makeshift camp hence Indian troops retaliated with full force and killed the terrorists, destroyed the camp and compelled the terrorists to escape.

The surgical strike gave a big moral boosting to Indian armed forces as well as to the public. So far our leaders were issuing hard-hitting statements against infiltration of terrorists as well as the terrorist acts conducted by Pakistani trained terrorists. Nonetheless no action was taken on the ground although half hearted efforts were made to isolate the terrorist state in international arena but much success was not achieved.  Nevertheless the surgical strike not only boosted the morale of Indian security forces it was also a big demoralizing factor for Pakistani army and the terrorists.

Indian security forces were eliminating low level, suicide bombers who were infiltrated in India while their guides and trainers were safe in Pakistan. In this surgical strike Indian Army eliminated terrorists, guides as well as few trainers which gave a stern message to the trainers.

India should try to collect pin-pointed intelligence may be either through Humint or through technical gadgets and should plan to attack on the terrorist camps of Lashker-e-Toiba & Jaish-e-Mohammed, although it will be difficult as in this way Indian contingent will have to go deep inside enemy territory which is a dangerous phenomenon. Secondly training camps are not permanent structures and they continue moving hence very soon the information about training camps becomes stale and redundant.

If Indian forces demolish the training centres of terrorists it will smash the moral of trainers as well as terrorists as at present they feel that they are safe and only infiltrators who are low level terrorists would be killed. Here it is also important that entering of Indian army in P.O.K. is legal as POK is part of India which Pakistan has occupied illegally.

In case of surgical strike on terrorist camps deep inside POK, Pakistan army would threaten to retaliate but it will not opt for all out war. It may also clandestinely attack on some installation of security forces as a retaliatory measure but it is of little impact as Indian security forces are already facing attacks from Pakistan trained terrorists. Pakistani terrorists attacked on Indian army camp in Uri on September 18, 2016 and also attacked on Pathankot Air base in January 2016 are just two examples.

The present Army Chief General Bipin Rawat who is closely supervising the surgical strikes as well as anti-terrorist operations in Jammu & Kashmir already stated in several statements that India keep the “right to retaliate” and if Pakistan does not stop sending infiltrators in India there would be more surgical strikes. Again General Rawat in a hard hitting statement mentioned that Indian troops are ready to receive and put infiltrators into grave.

There are far reaching effects of these surgical strikes. Firstly the moral of security forces is galvanized and now they are aggressive. Secondly there is good cooperation and coordination between various wings of security forces and they are launching offensive operations. Latest search and cordon operations in Kashmir are example of the success of security forces which exterminated about 145 terrorists in the current year and out of these killed terrorists there were few commanders of terrorist outfits.

As Security forces are gaining upper hand more and more peace loving people are supplying information to security agencies which is helping them in eliminating terrorists.

Indian security forces have to be more careful in North East as Pakistan sponsored terrorism in Kashmir is weakening, the sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) would try to fuel various terrorist groups active in North East. Besides it China which had to retreat at Doklam will also enhance its assistance to terrorist outfits of North East. Pakistan and China both are close friends and would like to assist terrorist outfits in India. Pakistan which has launched a proxy war against India and created a big infrastructure of producing terrorists would not stop assisting terrorist outfits hence Indian security forces have to be more vigilant and intelligence organisations must collect actionable intelligence so that India can eradicate menace of terrorism from the country.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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MORAL DISINTEGRATION OF A NEIGHBOURHOOD NATION

 

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MORAL DISINTEGRATION OF A NEIGHBOURHOOD NATION

Saturday, 23 September 2017 | Jai Kumar Verma | in Edit

Pakistan is passing from a difficult phase. The all-dominant Army as well as the civilian leadership should chalk out a comprehensive plan so that the country remains united and overcomes its multifarious problems

Pakistan, which was created 70 years back, was bisected when a new nation, Bangladesh emerged. However, the all-dominant Army and thoroughly corrupt political leadership over there have not taken lessons from past blunders and at present, the country is facing multifarious tribulations which include secessionist agitations by various nationalities, increasing religious intolerance, population explosion, worsening economic situation, growing water crisis, civil and military confrontation, poor education system, escalating drug addiction, rampant corruption as well as isolation in the international arena. These are only a few major issues and the list can include several more significant problems faced by the ailing country.

Pakistan was created on the name of Islam and it was the main adjoining factor of diverse nationalities that joined the new-born nation but Islamic extremists killed, converted or subdued the minorities.  Hence, Islam ceased to be an adhesive factor. Punjab, being the most populous State, soon captured power and started exploiting abundant resources of the country and subjugated all other nationalities. In the 1970 general election, the Bangladesh Awami League emerged as the single largest party but the Punjabi-dominated Army refused to hand over power to Sheikh Mujeebur Rehman and the country faced its first partition. 

Balochistan, which is the largest Province of Pakistan, and possess copious mineral resources, is the poorest State in the country. Balochis are fighting for independence of the State and there were several uprisings. The Pakistan Army, which is known for its brutality, killed innocent people and bombarded civilian areas but atrocities could not break the resolve of the Balochis and the secessionist movement is still continuing.

Besides, Balochis, Sindhis, Pashtuns and Kashmiris want separate nations while Muhajirs, Saraikis, Chitralis, Hindkowans assert that the federal Government is exploiting them and they want more autonomy. Pakistan, instead of blaming India should give equal rights to their diverse nationalities otherwise the country may have to undergo the trauma of more partitions.

General Zia-ul-Haq with ulterior motive  radicalised the country to gain support of Islamic extremists. He created an infrastructure to produce Islamic fanatics and jihadists to fight in Afghanistan and in India. Few Middle East countries pumped money which augmented Wahhabism and it increased animosity between the Shias and the Sunnis. Sunni extremist outfits like the Sipah-e-Sahaba, the  Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat started massacre of the Shias. There are about 35 million Shias and they also constitute organisations like the Imamia Students Organisation and the Tehrik-e-Jafaria Pakistan to take revenge from Sunnis. At present, Pakistan is undergoing a bitter sectarian war which is harmful for the country. The Islamic State, which is a Sunni terrorist outfit, is also recruiting young Pakistanis to kill the Shias and carryout terrorist activities.

Iran is recruiting young Shias from Pakistan to assist the forces of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. These battles which hardened radicalised Shia youths will be a big danger to Pakistan once they return back from Syria.

The Pakistan Army, which has not allowed civilian institutions to grow, painted itself as the guardian of the country and claimed that India wants to destroy Pakistan, and, hence, the country needs powerful Armed Forces. The Army also propagated that it will take revenge of partition of the country and will snatch Kashmir from India. Hence, the Army needs more funds. In this way, the defence forces took a lion’s share of the scarce resources which further damaged the economy.  

Senior officers of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) were involved in drug smuggling in the name of financing anti-India operations but as hefty sums were involved, lot of drugs were sold within the country and it became one of the most drug addict nation.

Few terrorist outfits created by the ISI declined to obey the dictates of creepy ISI and   the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is an umbrella organisation of more than 13 terrorist groups, profess to fight against the Pakistani Government and it carried out several terrorist attacks in the country. The gravity of terrorism can be assessed by the fact that according to South Asia Terrorism Portal, from 2003 to 2017, more than 60,000 persons were killed because of terrorism in Pakistan.

The country is so thoroughly radicalised that it will be difficult to take it out from increasing extremism. Several anti-terrorist operations launched by security forces could not achieve the desired result, partially because security forces only want to eliminate ‘bad terrorists’ and partly because of resistance from powerful Islamic fraternity. 

Pakistan is so engrossed in day-to-day problems that it has no time to sort out long term issues. There will be acute water shortage in 2025 and it will further damage the economy of the country as Pakistan’s agriculture is water dependent. Its main crops are cotton and sugarcane and both needs excessive water. Pakistan is not making any sincere efforts to conserve water and within few years the situation will be disastrous.

Pakistan’s population is increasing at the rate of more than two per cent, which is the highest in the region. According to 1951 census, West Pakistan had a population of 33.7 million, which became 194,931,848 in January this year. This unprecedented growth has shattered the economy of the country. At present, export is dwindling while imports are enhancing. The net public debt is more than Rs 18 trillion which is frightening.  Pakistan’s foreign debt is Rs 6.14 trillion and it will need assistance either from the International Monetary Fund or China to repay its foreign debt in March 2018.

In the present era, technology is most important — developed countries are progressing only because of inventions and latest technology — while the backbone of Pakistan’s education system is  madrassas and in these  madrassas, semi literate teachers are producing jihadists instead of scientists, engineers and doctors. The present educational system if not improved soon may become a cause of collapse for the country.

Pakistan possesses nuclear warheads and there was always a danger that some international or national terrorist organisation may procure nuclear warheads by payment or by arousing jihadist feeling in some Pakistanis who have control over nuclear warheads.

In another worrisome development, Lashkar-e-Tayyeba chief Hafiz Mohammed Saeed launched a political party, namely the Milli Muslim League (MML) with full support of the ISI. MML had applied to the Election Commissioner (EC) for registration, although this time, the EC has rejected the application, but soon it will have to register the party under pressure from the Army. This time, Yaqub Sheikh is contesting election as an independent candidate. Analysts feel that in the beginning, terrorists may not succeed but later they can capture power and at that time whole nuclear arsenals will be under their command. It will be a scary situation.

Pakistan is also facing acute problems in the international arena and losing friends. Recently, the US put restrictions on the use of $255 million assistance and the ninth Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (Brics) summit in the joint declaration not only condemned terrorism but also named few terrorist organisations which are operating from Pakistan. Muslim countries are also not very helpful to Pakistan because of terrorism. Pakistan is passing from a difficult phase and the all-dominant Army as well as its civilian leadership should chalk out a comprehensive plan so that the country remains united and overcomes its multifarious problems. 

(The writer is member, United Services Institute of India, and associated with the Institute for DefenceStudies and Analyses)

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Pakistan is heading towards disaster

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Updated:Oct 19, 2017 
 By Jai K Verma

 The 2017 report of the Fragile States Index places Pakistan in the list of the first 20 failed countries, which should be worrisome for the country. Instead of continuing with the low intensity war against its neighbours, Pakistan should make efforts to implement reforms in diverse fields.

Pakistan was carved out of India on the basis of the ‘two-nation’ theory broadly intended to foster separation and hatred. This philosophy persists today, with greater vengeance.

 With its vicious policies, Pakistan has antagonised another neighbour, Afghanistan, on its Western front while Shia Iran can never trust Sunni Pakistan, helping terrorist outfits on behalf of Wahabi Saudi Arabia. Iran recently threatened Pakistan with stringent action if it did not control non-state actors who were fomenting terror.

 Pakistan earlier had cordial relations with Afghanistan and Iran. In the India-Pakistan war of 1965 & 1971, Pakistan did not need to deploy troops on the Afghan or Iranian borders as there was no danger from them. The situation has drastically changed now.   

 Pakistan’s fourth neighbour is China. Diplomatically, both countries are “all weather friends;” China has rescued Pakistan on many occasions, but Beijing has placed severe restrictions along the China- Pakistan border, as some Islamic terrorist groups are helping Uighur Muslims fighting for a separate homeland in China’s Xinjiang autonomous region.

 The recently concluded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit in China included names of several Pakistan-based terrorist organisations in its joint declaration, indicating that China is hardening its attitude towards Pakistan and terrorism.  Pakistan appears surrounded by hostile or threatening neighbours.

 However, the major danger to the country is from internal forces; contradicting mindsets, military domination, corrupt and inept politicians, different nationalities, rising population, depleting water resources and a worsening economic situation. Such forces may be responsible for Pakistan imploding.

 The Punjabi-dominated Pakistan army has not allowed civil institutions to strengthen and has exploited all other nationalities. In 1971, Pakistan was split and Bangladesh emerged. Now, Balochistan, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir all want separate nations. The people of Gilgit and Baltistan are fighting for an independent Balawaristan. While Muhajiris, Saraikis and Chitralis want more autonomy, as the Punjabis are exploiting them too. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif actually stated that the country was facing the danger of disintegration. 

 Former President General Zia-ul-Haq decided to join the United States to evict the USSR from Afghanistan. He needed Jihadis to do this and proceeded to inject religion into the polity and Islamized the army and the country. Saudi Arabia and other West Asian countries pumped petro-dollars into Pakistan and helped inculcate the ‘madrassa culture’ in the country, which radicalised many Pakistanis. The country is still paying a heavy price for this extremism. 

 Pakistan waged a low-intensity war against India and Afghanistan and created terrorist outfits like Lashkar-e-Toiba ( L-e-T), Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M), Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (H-u-M), Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and  Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

 Few of these terrorist organisations broke free and refused to obey the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and are conducting terrorist activities within the country. Sunni outfits like SSP & ASWJ are killing Shias, thus increasing the animosity between two prominent sects of Muslims. Shias make up more than 20 percent of Pakistan’s population.

 The US, earlier the country’s largest economic aid donor, recently warned Pakistan to change its policies, of “harbouring” terrorists who are attacking US troops in Afghanistan. US President Donald Trump also said Pakistan provides “safe haven” to terrorists.

Pakistan is now aligning with China and expects it to invest USD 50 billion or more for the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It is likely that Communist China will annexe several parts of Pakistan, since Islamabad will never be able to repay the huge debt.

 The GDP growth rate is a poor 3 percent. The country must repay loans worth USD 73 billion and more. Exports are dwindling while imports are increasing. The education system is in disarray. Terrorists from across the world reach Pakistan to get training in exploding bombs and carrying out terrorist acts. Pakistan’s ailing education system needs a total revamp to save the country from falling apart.    

 The defence budget should be curtailed and more money spent on education, family planning and health. Civilian institutions must be strengthened and army must return to the barracks. The domineering Pakistan army must allow civil institutions to grow and a civilian leadership to formulate policies. Powers of the ISI should be curtailed and Pakistan must destroy all terrorist training centres and terrorists, without distinction. Legitimate grievances of all the nationalities should be redressed and rights of minorities, including Shias, ensured.

The population of the country is increasing threateningly. In 1951, the former West Pakistan had a population of 33.7 million which has now swelled to 207.77 million. The country must adopt stringent family planning measures otherwise its very survival is at stake.

 Pakistan has launched several operations against terrorists but these operations have not yielded desired results as security forces differentiated between “good” and “bad” terrorists.

 In August 2017, Jamaat-ud-Dawa (J-u-D) formed a political party, Milli Muslim League (MML) and declared its intent to contest elections. With extremism and fundamentalism at its zenith, these political parties could acquire power and control the nuclear warheads.

 Pakistan is heading towards disaster. If terrorists capture the country, it will be detrimental not only for Pakistan but for world. Pakistani rulers must chalk out a comprehensive policy to save the country from catastrophe.

 (The writer is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

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Pakistan Army Punished Nawaz Sharif For Challenging Its Authority

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By JK Verma

New Delhi. 31 July 2017. On July 28 in a landmark judgment Pakistani Supreme Court ousted the elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who dared to confront the all powerful Pakistani Army. Nawaz Sharif was elected Prime Minister thrice but shunted out before completion of the tenure every time.

The five judge’s bench unanimously threw him out, although he was not convicted for any crime, depicts the fragile nature of democracy in Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif was a powerful prime minister and his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif was the chief minister of Punjab which further strengthened him and it is the reason that authoritative Pakistani Army considered Nawaz as potential enemy.

Pakistan Army, which ruled the country directly more than thirty years out of seventy years of independence, paints politicians as corrupt and projects itself as the protector of the nation. Nawaz in his second term was not only overthrown by General Musharraf but he also forced Nawaz to leave the country.

The previous Army Chief General Raheel Sharif undermined Nawaz through the agitations organised by Imran Khan of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party (PTI) and Islamic cleric Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri of Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) from August to December, 2014. General Sharif also controlled foreign policy towards several important countries including India, Afghanistan and USA. In the beginning Nawaz wanted to have cordial relations with India but Pakistani army which thrives on anti-India rhetoric curbed any such move.  The current Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa  famous for being a dark horse candidate as he was ranking fourth in seniority when he took over the most important job in Pakistan and not a very media savvy General, very smoothly completed operation Nawaz Sharif.

The biggest difference was on sponsoring “terrorism”. Army controlled Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has created several terrorist outfits and these terrorist organisations carryout terrorist activities in India and Afghanistan. International terrorists like Hafiz Saeed roam freely in the country and issues statements against India, USA and other countries which gave bad name to Pakistan.  Rana Muhammad Afzal an important leader of Pakistan Muslim League (N) also severely criticised Hafiz Saeed in an interview and demanded stern action against him.

Cyril Almedia a courageous journalist wrote an article in a daily newspaper ‘Dawn’ in which he mentioned about the animosity between civilian government and military leadership. The article also exposed about the bitterness between Shahbaz Sharif and the then ISI chief. Shahbaz mentioned in a meeting that whenever security agencies took actions against terrorists, ISI gave shelter to them.

The Army could not accept the domination of civilian government and determined to remove Nawaz and judiciary obliged. In Pakistan both civilian rulers as well as army are equally corrupt but the law was used against Nawaz and his family. General Pervez Musharaf who was facing charges of treason was allowed to leave the country in March 2016 which indicated the authority of Army as well as weakness of civilian government.

The Panama Papers were exposed by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists in 2016 under which more than 11 million documents of law firm Mossack Fonseca which had headquarter at Panama were revealed to public. Few of these leaked papers mentioned that three children of Nawaz Sharif including Maryam, Hussain and Hasan owned few companies in British Virgin Islands and these companies were involved in the transactions of about USD 25 million. The documents also revealed that the Sharif family owns properties in London.

The Supreme Court while removing Nawaz under Article 62 and 63 of Pakistan’s constitution also tasked National Accountability Bureau (NAB) to investigate the charges further as at present the corruption charges against Nawaz and his family including Maryam’s husband Captain Safdar are not proved conclusively. It indicates that the judiciary or Pakistan Army on whose behest judiciary was working, was in utmost hurry to punish Nawaz and his family for challenging powerful Pakistani army. Nonetheless it also exposed the weakness of civilian government as well as of the judiciary. The Pakistan watchers also mention that in this case few powerful military generals not only took undue interest but also forced judiciary to dispose the case with undue haste.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman, President of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) and member of National Assembly echoed the voice of several educated Pakistanis when he reiterated that the Supreme Court judgment about disqualifying Sharif had astounded the legal experts and  history may not remember it as a correct decision. He also stated that it is done with the intention of creating a “political crisis”. PML (N) leaders and analysts mentioned that Pakistan Army hatched a conspiracy to remove Nawaz Sharif. Abid Sher Ali PML(N) minister commented that democracy was stabbed. Here it will not be out of point to mention that PTI Chief Imran Khan is also facing investigation about possession of illegal properties and cases for tax evasion.

The judgment has created turmoil in the country. Sharif’s daughter Maryam Nawaz who was groomed to take over from her father was also disqualified. It is expected that soon there will be defections in PML (N) and the party would be weakened further. If Shahbaz Sharif who always remained in the regional politics becomes the Prime Minister after contesting elections then the grip of PML (N) in Punjab will be diluted.

The opposition parties especially Imran Khan of PTI would also try to grab the power albeit with the connivance of  the Army. He issued statements welcoming the judgment and alleged that the court unanimously rejected the arguments of Nawaz Sharif and disqualified him to rule the nation.

The judgment came when economy is in shambles; terrorism has enhanced manifold and the country is isolated in world arena. The US has stopped USD 350 million aid to Pakistan. US State Department Country Report of 2016 emphatically stated that Pakistan is a “Safe Heaven” for terrorists and it failed to take stringent actions against Haqqani network as well as several other terrorist outfits including  Lashkar-e-Taiba (L-e-T) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (J-e-M).

The ousting of Sharif is an internal matter of Pakistan but it affects India hence policy planners in South Block should chalk-out a comprehensive strategy to deal with the off-shoots of this unwarranted situation in India. Pakistani Army which has waged a low intensity war against India and has been infiltrating terrorists in Kashmir will enhance funding and infiltration in India.

Pakistan Army as well as separatist leaders in Kashmir are realizing that the present Modi government is implementing a comprehensive policy in Kashmir to end terrorism. On one hand security forces are exterminating terrorists and their support agents under search and combing operations and on the other hand  they have enhanced vigil on the borders hence it has become difficult to infiltrate fresh terrorists. There are intelligence reports that the ISI is searching new routes to infiltrate terrorists and the  recent killings of Pakistani terrorists in Gurez in Drass sector confirm these reports.

Indian security agencies are also choking the sources of terror funding by ISI. On July 24 National Investigation Agency (NIA) arrested seven persons including son-in-law of separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani for criminal conspiracy and waging war against India. The arrested persons were receiving funds from Pakistan and in turn they were financing secessionists, stone-pelters and terrorists. NIA also recommended closure of border trade between India and Pakistan as ISI is financing secessionist elements through over and under invoicing.Both Nawaz government and Pakistani Army  confronted the surgical strike by India. Pakistani army denied the surgical strike while Nawaz government accepted and termed it as “naked aggression”.

Pakistan Amy will try to strengthen itself by propagating imaginary danger from India as it has already nullified the elected Prime Minister and the interim Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi would not dare to resist the demands of the Army. Pakistan Army which survives on anti-India propaganda would try to worsen relations with its eastern neighbour. Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa may reject the appeal of Kul Bhushan Jadhav to show himself as anti- India.

Army controlled ISI will also pump more money in various terrorist outfits so that these groups can carry out more terrorist attacks in India and Afghanistan. Hence the security agencies should be careful not only in Kashmir but whole of India. The ISI may activate sleeper cells and would try to sabotage India’s vast railway network as well as Pakistan sponsored terrorists may plant bombs in crowded places in big cities.

Pakistan Army will also try to get some advantage from the current standoff between India and China at Doklam, although China has never rescued Pakistan when it fought with India but Pakistani Army which knows that it cannot stand against India will certainly try to settle score with the help of Chinese Army.

But till then all eyes in  India are on Islamabad to get a glimpse of the man who will be chosen by the Pakistan Army to  rule the nation which is perpetually in turmoil.

 (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Pakistan Based Terror Outfits Attack India

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·         US calls Pakistan a safe haven for terrorists

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By JK Verma

New Delhi. 26 July 2017. India has always been saying so, but the world never reacted. Today United States reiterates India’s statements in its US State Department annual Country Report 2016 on terrorism, which comes as a jolt to Pakistan.

The US report which covered the events from January to December 2016 was released by State Department on July 19, clearly mentions that Pakistan is a “safe haven” of terrorists and several terrorist outfits including Lashkar-e-Taiba (L-e-T), Jaish-e-Mohammad (J-e-M) and Haqqani network operates from Pakistan. L-e-T and J-e-M carried out most of the terrorist attacks in India while Haqqani network constantly attacked US led NATO forces and Afghan troops in Afghanistan.

The report reiterated the Indian stand that India is suffering from cross-border terrorism and Pakistan based terrorist groups regularly infiltrates terrorists in the country and these outfits are involved in terrorist activities. The report also revealed that terror groups like L-e-T, J-e-M and others continued to operate training camps, organise recruitment and fund raising jamborees and Pakistan government has done nothing to control these terror outfits.

Pakistan government’s ban on terrorist outfits like L-e-T is an eyewash and the terrorist outfits continued functioning unabated with pseudo names of Jamaat-ud-Dawa (J-u-D) and Falah-i-Insaniant Foundation (F-i-F). The hard-hitting report also mentions that these terrorist outfits are so emboldened that they organise fund-raising functions all over Pakistan including in the capital. Hafiz Muhammad Saeed co-founder of L-e-T and Chief of J-u-D, who is an internationally designated terrorist and carries a reward of USD 10 million not only roams freely but also addresses large gatherings in important cities of Pakistan. In fact he receives V.I.P. treatment by the local administration and they assist him in organizing rallies and fund raising functions.

Hafiz Saeed is included in the most wanted list of National Investigation Agency (NIA) and NIA is trying for his extradition but as Saeed is the protégée of nefarious Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) there is no restriction on him. Several countries like United States, United Kingdom, European Union, Russia and Australia banned L-e-T but it has no impact on Pakistan.

Another study conducted by University of Maryland on terrorism pointed out that although in 2016 terrorists activities were carried out in 104 countries but 55 percent of terrorist attacks occurred only in five countries including Afghanistan, Iraq, India, Pakistan and Philippines. The analysts mention that out of above mentioned five countries, Pakistan trained terrorists were responsible for all terrorist activities in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan while terrorists involved in Iraq and Philippines also had some connection with Pakistan.

The report mentions that although Pakistan government has taken action against terrorists in Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) but the impact is uneven. It clearly substantiates India’s principled stand that Pakistan authorities differentiate between “good” and “bad” terrorists.

Pakistani army launched several major operations against terrorist outfits in past including Operation Al Mizan, Rah-e-Haq, Zalzala, Black Thunderstorm, Raah-e-Raast, Sher Dil, Rah-e-Nijat, Koh-e-Safaid, Khyber, Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fassad but the results of these operations were dismal as the security forces differentiated between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ terrorists. The terrorist outfits which obeys instructions of military controlled ISI comes under the category of ‘good terrorists’ and get full protection and assistance from security agencies while ‘bad terrorists’ are those  are those which carryout terrorist activities against the wishes of ISI. The report also mentioned that Pakistani security forces took actions against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but refrained from taking actions against other terrorist outfits including Haqqani network, L-e-T, J-e-M etc.

Pakistani security forces must understand that they cannot control terrorists and they may succeed in infiltrating few   terrorists in neighbouring countries but large number will remain inside Pakistan and would carry out terrorist activities.

Several times Pakistan army reacts after the incident as after suicide attack on Lal Shahbaz Qalandar Sufi shrine at Sehwan in Sindh which killed more than 88 innocent citizens including 20 children, Pakistan army launched operation ‘Radd-ul-Fasaad’ in which they killed more than 100 terrorists within days. It indicates that security forces were aware of the location of terrorists hence exterminated them so early. In fact if security forces had knowledge about hideouts of terrorists they should have eliminated them before the terrorist incident unless security forces were protecting these terrorists.

Good terrorists include Haqqani network and Taliban which carryout terrorist operations in Afghanistan. Same way L-e-T, J-e-M and J-u-D are ‘good terrorists’ as they carry out terrorist activities in India.

Pakistan which is responsible for major terrorist attacks in India and Afghanistan always blames Afghan and Indian intelligence agencies for terrorist attacks in the country. After terrorist attack on Sufi shrine in Sindh Pakistan alleged that it was the handiwork of Afghan government sponsored terrorists and they took shelter in Afghanistan. Pak army summoned Afghan embassy officials in Army Hqrs at Rawalpindi and gave a list of 76 terrorists who were allegedly hiding in Afghanistan and demanded their repatriation. Pakistan also closed borders with Afghanistan.

In fact Pakistan instead of blaming other countries should chalk out a comprehensive plan to eradicate multifarious terrorist outfits from its soil. Pakistan should also tame ISI which has become a state within-state and infiltrate terrorists in other countries.

The terrorist outfits as well as ISI are running several Madrassas in the country and these religious seminaries are producing terrorists and spreading radicalism and hatred in the country. The administration must regularize the registered as well as unregistered Madrassas and the modern education should be imparted in these religious institutions so that the students get some jobs after study.

Pakistan should stop radicalisation of the country as well as start de-radicalisation programmes. The religious preachers must counter the propaganda of terrorists as they are killing people on the name of Islam. There should be sweeping changes in the prevailing education system of the country.

Pakistan should launch poverty alleviation programmes so that deprived young persons get jobs and lead a normal life. Pakistan government should stop foreign assistance to those Madrassas which are producing terrorists.

US National Security Advisor HR McMaster also told to Pakistan authorities in his recent visit to Islamabad that Pakistan security agencies must take actions against all terrorists and should not differentiate between good and bad terrorists.

The reports also mentioned several terrorist incidents occurred at Pampore, Pathankot, Uri, Baramullah, Nagrota etc. According to Indian intelligence organisations all these terrorist activities were carried out by terrorists infiltrated or trained in Pakistan.

Although the report mentioned that there were no major changes in Indian laws but also gave reference of punitive action taken against Zakir Naik of Islamic Research Foundation. Report also appreciated demonetisation of Rs.500 and Rs.1000 notes as it curbed menace of counterfeit and  restricted terror funding.

The first Country Report on terrorism of Trump Administration adopted a hard line on Pakistan as it emphatically mentioned that Pakistan provides safe heaven to terrorists and it is involved in abetting and assisting diverse terrorist outfits. The report also mentions that Pakistan has not done enough to contain terrorism.

Nonetheless only mentioning of Pakistan in the report is not enough unless the lone superpower takes punitive actions against the erring nations including Pakistan. The country report of 2015 also mentioned than Pakistan was assisting terrorists but no worthwhile action was taken against the aberrant country.

The Trump administration took first step by blocking the military aid of USD 350 million to Pakistan as Defence Secretary James Mattis refrained to certify that Pakistan took adequate measures against the terrorist outfits especially Haqqani network.

However it is not adequate, USA as well as other countries opposed to terrorism must take stringent actions against Pakistan which may include trade restrictions, seizing of assets, travel advisory just to name few. Trump administration including President Trump already issued hard-hitting statements, now the world at large especially India wants to see what punitive actions were taken against the state which shelters and assists the terrorists. All world including US knows that Pakistan will not amend its ways unless some drastic steps are taken against it.

In past senior President Bush threatened Pakistan that either it is with USA or against it in respect of war against terrorism and it transformed Pakistan. In fact Trump also has to be blunt and should start taking stringent actions against Pakistan.

Indian security planners should not depend much on USA as no country works for another country, hence long term planning should be made so that infiltration of terrorists can be minimized and the terrorists already entered in the country should be exterminated. Funding of terrorists should be curbed and secessionist leaders should be put behind bars. The so called human right activists should not only be exposed but if law permits must be punished.

Pakistan may try to take advantage of present India-China standoff at Doklam and although it will not be advisable for India to open two fronts but must prepare itself as much as feasible.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Nefarious ISI Working Hard To Revive Khalistan Issue

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By JK Verma

New Delhi. 26 June 2017. Movements have lived, died and revived. A movement which lived to create a divide in the most prosperous Indian state, peaked with the murder of the Prime Minister, resulted into retaliation from the masses against a community which was loved by one and all, died a death by a strong administration under a super cop, seems to have got revived. Khalistan is a dead issue on the surface but the lava seems to be simmering beneath after decades.

Intelligence reports indicate that ISI is working hard to invigorate Khalistan issue in Punjab. Sometime back senior ISI officers contacted Khalistani leaders based in Pakistan as well as abroad and inculcated them to revive Khalistan movement. ISI is extending all types of assistance to diverse Sikh extremist organisations so that secessionist movement starts again in Punjab.  

Although situation in Punjab seems normal but recent killings of Hindu leaders, shouting of pro-Khalistan and anti-India slogans or not allowing the inclusion of the name of super cop KPS Gill in obituary reference in Punjab Vidhan Sabha are few serious indicators that the secessionist elements are gaining strength.

Pakistan which has made terrorism as an important tool of its foreign policy is assisting Khalistani leaders, especially separatists Sikhs living in Canada, Europe and America to accentuate upon the Sikhs visiting India to propagate Khalistani ideology in Punjab during their visits. The Khalistani leaders are also contacting diverse terrorist outfits active in India and abroad to chalk out a common strategy of reviving Khalistan movement. The intelligence agencies also claim that Pakistan considers that India was responsible of creation of Bangladesh and it wants to take revenge by creating Khalistan or annexing Jammu & Kashmir from India.

In fact Sikhs settled abroad are creating more trouble in comparison to Sikhs residing in India. Sometimes back India protested United States about the formation of Sikh Congressional Caucus by Khalistan supporters in US.

ISI is trying to revive Khalistan movement through radical Sikhs settled abroad. The extremist Sikhs also organise get-togethers in Gurudwaras and hold demonstrations in front of Indian missions abroad on anniversaries of Operation Blue Star, carnage of Sikhs in 1984 in Delhi, where they chant pro-Khalistan and anti-India slogans. The videos of these demonstrations, as well as several concocted videos are sent to India to arouse the secessionist sentiments of Sikhs. 

The secessionists shout anti-India and pro-Khalistan slogans and when security agencies react and arrest the slogan mongers the Khalistanis allege about the discrimination and get opportunity to strengthen the Khalistan movement. The Sikhs residing abroad have close links in Punjab and few of them sponsor Khalistan movement in India.

Pakistan sponsored three terrorists killed seven persons including a Superintendent of Police, three home guards and three civilians in Dina Nagar Police station in July 2015 was a candid reminder that ISI is working hard to revive Khalistan movement. Besides killing seven persons the terrorists also put five bombs on railway tracks, nevertheless the bombs were defused by security forces before they could cause the damage.  

On June six which was the 33rd anniversary of Operation Bluestar Sikh extremists shouted pro-Khalistan slogans in Golden Temple complex. The radical Sikh outfit Dal Khalsa had given call for shutdown of holy city of Amritsar. Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) which was founded in May 1994 also shouted slogans like “Khalistan Zindabad”.

The ISI sponsored Khalistani terrorists kill Hindus especially Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leaders with ulterior motive of creating abhorrence between Hindus and Sikhs. In August 2016 Punjab RSS deputy Chief, Brigadier (Retd) Jagdish Gagneja was fired by Sikh terrorists in Jallandhar, later in September he succumbed to the injuries. Two terrorists of ‘Dashmesh Regiment’ a Sikh terrorist organisations fired Six rounds on the RSS leader. ‘Dashmesh Regiment’ which was active in 1990 not only claimed the responsibility of the murder of Gagneja but also declared in a written note in Gurumukhi about the murder of Shiv Sena leader Durga Prasad Gupta. Again in January two Khalistani terrorists killed Amit Sharma office bearer of Sri Hindu Takht in Ludhiana. Intelligence agencies claim that the killings of Hindu leaders are done on behest of ISI as it wants to create division between Hindus and Sikhs in Punjab.

In another incident Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) made a walkout from Punjab Vidhan Sabha on June 14, when the speaker read the name of KPS Gill in obituary references. The former Director General of Punjab Police Gill who is also known as “super cop” wiped out terrorism from Punjab and restored peace in the state.

Khalistan Tiger Force Chief Jagtar Singh Tara who was wanted in the murder of former Chief Minister Beant Singh was arrested in 2015 in Thailand. In course of interrogation he exposed that ISI is not only fueling Khalistan issue but also integrating Kashmir terrorists with Khalistani terrorists.

The important Sikh secessionist organisations include Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) which was declared terrorist organisation by European Union, United States, Canada, United Kingdom and India. UK based International Sikh Youth Federation (ISYF), Khalistan Commando Force (KCF) which carried out several terrorist incidents in India. All India Sikh Student Federation (AISSF), Bhindrawala Tigers Force of Khalistan (BTFK) constituted in 1984 by Gurbachan Singh Manochahal who had links with ISI. Besides these outfits there are Khalistan Liberation Force (KLF), Khalistan Liberation Army, Khalistan Zindabad Force (KZF), Dashmesh Regiment, Shaheed Khalsa Force just to name few. Out of these terrorist organisations several other groups also emerged because of personal differences between the Sikh leaders while few splinter groups came into existence because of pressure from ISI.

Large number of these terrorist groups and their splinter outfits were finished as their leaders were exterminated by the security forces or they escaped from India. Nonetheless ISI kept few terrorist outfits alive by sending terrorists from Pakistan or from abroad and these hirelings carried out terrorist activities and the leaders of Khalistan terrorist outfits took the responsibility of these terrorist incidents.

Dr. Jagit Singh Chauhan who was the founder of Khalistan movement, constituted Khalsa Raj Party and demanded an independent country. Chauhan who expired in 2007, had full support of ISI. He visited Pakistan several times including Nankana Sahib and wanted to establish Sikh government in exile in Pakistan. Khalistan includes East Punjab, Haryana, Himanchal Pradesh, some areas of Rajasthan and Utter Pradesh. 

The analysts also mention that in all the movements there are highs and lows same way at present it appears that Khalistan movement is ended but it is not finished few secessionist groups sponsored by ISI are trying to revive Khalistan movement and few political parties and their leaders also arouse separatist sentiments with the ulterior motive of gaining some cheap popularity.

The separatists allege that Hindus want to submerge Sikh religion into Hinduism to end the separate identity of Sikh religion. Sikhs also mention that Operation Bluestar damaged the psyche of Sikhs and the perpetrators of anti-sikh riots of 1984 in Delhi are still not punished. Khalistanis also allege that creation of Chandigarh as Union Territory is against the interests of Punjab. Claim of Harayana on Sutlej waters is unjustified and Punjab being an agrarian region all water should be utilized by the state. Separatists also mention that jokes on Sikhs are humiliating and must be stopped.

The political leadership of ruling parties as well as of opposition parties should be careful while issuing statements. They should not support separatists for petty gains. Central as well as state governments should also adopt long term policies to curb the growing unemployment in the state. The drug smuggling should also be stopped as it will be detrimental in long run. Hindus and Sikhs live with harmony and must fight together with their common enemy which is ISI and work for the progress of the state. The security forces should formulate a deep-rooted policy so that the creepy ISI does not succeed in its malevolent game-plan.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

The Pioneer  

The New Normal : Hit hard where it hurts 

Link http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/edit/the-new-normal-hit-hard-where-it-hurts.html

COLUMNISTS

THE NEW NORMAL: HIT HARD WHERE IT HURTS

Saturday, 05 November 2016 | Jai Kumar Verma | in Edit   

The Pakistani leadership, ISI officials as well as terrorists did not visualise that Indian forces would cross the Line of Control. They thought that it would business as usual. It’s a wake-up call for them 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who won the 2014 Lok Sabha election on the agenda of economic development, initially made all-out efforts to inculcate cordial relations with all neighbours, especially Pakistan. He invited heads of all South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) nations for his oath-taking ceremony and also paid a surprise visit to Lahore on Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s birthday. 

India took no action against Pakistan even when the military-controlled Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)-backed terrorists attacked the Air Force base in Pathankot earlier this year. India provided conclusive evidence to Pakistan and requested it to act against the persons who trained and sent the terrorists. Pakistan sent a few more terrorists who attacked an Indian Army base at Uri in September, in which 19 Army personnel were martyred and more than 30 injured.

Besides these attacks, Pakistan was incessantly infiltrating terrorists, including suicide bombers, in Kashmir. ISI-funded separatist organisations and leaders made a big issue when security forces killed Burhan Muzzaffar Wani, self-confessed commander of Hizbul Mujahideen, in July. The violent demonstrations, protests and strikes organised by separatist outfits has continued for months, many people have lost their lives and several more injured.

Not only this, Pakistani political leaders as well as General Raheel Sharif have been constantly seeking to intimidate India. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, in an interview, threatened that Pakistan hadn’t made the nuclear bomb to keep in a showcase and that it would “eliminate India” through nuclear weapons in case of a war. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff mentioned that “Kashmir is an unfinished agenda” of 1947.

The Pakistani leaders were indulging in anti-India rhetoric, thinking that the political situation in India would not permit Indian forces to cross the borders. Nonetheless, the Modi Government took a bold decision and Indian forces conducted surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) on September 29. In the surgical strike, which occurred within a fortnight of the ISI-sponsored terrorist attack in Uri, Indian Armed Forces penetrated five to seven kilometres in PoK and destroyed at least four terror launch pads and killed more than 40 terrorists and their guides. About nine Pakistan Army personnel, who were the trainers and handlers of the slain terrorists, were also neutralised. 

The Pakistani leadership, ISI officials as well as terrorists did not visualise that Indian forces would cross the Line of Control (LoC). Later Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif termed it as “unprovoked and naked aggression”, while the Pakistan Army blatantly lied and stated that Indian forces had not crossed the LoC.

Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) Lt General Ranbir Singh very intelligently, clarified at a Press conference that the surgical strikes were not against the Pakistan Army but against militants who wanted to enter India with the ulterior motive of carrying out terrorist attacks here.

The ISI has increased infiltration efforts in J&K because crossing the border would be difficult once winter sets in. Also, the agitation in Kashmir is declining and anti-agitation sentiments are developing. The people of Kashmir have begun realising that such agitations and demonstrations have destroyed the economy of the State. The ISI is planning to carry out major terrorist activity in response to the surgical strikes by India. According to intelligence reports, more than 125 terrorists of Lashkar-e-Tayyeba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and other similar outfits have already entered the State this year. Several of them have been already exterminated in various encounters.

The Pakistan Army, which propagates itself as a saviour of its country, will not stop sending terrorists unless it finds that there is danger to their existence and Indian forces would enter not only PoK, which incidentally is Indian territory and illegally occoupied by Pakistan, but even other places in that country in hot pursuit. 

The morale of the Indian Army and the paramilitary forces is high, as the local commanders are empowered to retaliate strongly against infiltration attempts as well as against cross-border firings. The Indian security forces have killed enemy forces as well as foiled several infiltration attempts supported by the ISI and Pakistan Rangers. Important leaders of Pakistani terrorist outfits had to visit terrorist camps as well as border areas to persuade terrorists to cross the border as several jihadis were reluctant to enter India as they were afraid of being killed while crossing the border.

The stringent policy formulated by the Modi Government in Kashmir is giving results. Local Kashmiris are secretly providing information to security agencies about the hideouts of terrorists. The security agencies are conducting joint search operations and suspects. 

The Modi Government is working on a two-pronged strategy against Pakistan. The security agencies have intensified vigil on the border, and on the other hand New Delhi is isolating Pakistan in the world arena. Indian policymakers do not want a full-scale war but they are retaliating in such a way that the cost of spreading terror is increasing for Pakistan. 

No country criticised India for the surgical strikes. Pakistan sent 22 of its Members of Parliament to different world capitals to promote the Pakistani viewpoint about Kashmir, but they returned empty-handed, as most countries told them to control the terrorists operating from their soil. The lecturing by Nawaz Sharif at the United Nations on Kashmir in September was ineffective and UN Secretary General Ban-Ki-moon did not even mention Kashmir in his concluding speech. Pakistan was compelled to postpone the Saarc summit as several countries refused to attend. This, if anything, was a clear indication of the global isolation of Pakistan.  

Further, in the recent summit of The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec), the member countries clearly let their displeasure known about Pakistan for assisting terrorism. Earlier, Prime Minister Modi had spoken emphatically on terrorism at the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit in Goa. Although the names of terror outfits based in Pakistan could not be named in the final communiqué, largely due to China’s objections and Russia playing along, the message was clear to Islamabad that it was being branded as a state sponsor of terrorism.

(The writer is member, United Services Institute of India, and associated with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)Bottom of Form

WION New Delhi, India Aug 19, 2016, 06.15 PM (IST

India should answer Pakistan’s intervention in Kashmir with involvement in Balochistan

http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-india-should-answer-pakistan-s-intervention-in-kashmir-with-involvement-in-balochistan-2246931

The Indian prime minister Narendra Modi's remark on Balochistan has encouraged strong anti-Pakistan rhetoric Photograph: (Reuters)

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Jai Kumar Verma

While celebrating the 70th Independence Day, Pakistani leaders affirmed solidarity towards pro-Pakistani secessionist elements in Kashmir. Abdul Basit, Pakistan's High Commissioner in New Delhi, who is known for his anti-India rhetoric went ahead and stated that this year's independence day has been dedicated to Kashmir. Pakistani leaders also made hostile remarks against India and alleged that the Indian security forces are violating human rights in Kashmir. 

In the past when Pakistani leaders made false accusations about Indian atrocities in Jammu & Kashmir, the Indian ministry of external affairs and Indian political leaders usually went defensive. However, this time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi took a tough stance and mentioned in his Independence Day speech from Red Fort about the freedom struggle of people of Balochistan, Gilgit, Baltistan and the residents of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). 

The Indian prime minister showed his concern about the cruelty perpetrated by the Pakistani army and security forces on the residents of POK and Balochistan. Narendra Modi, without mentioning names, also pointed out to the stark differences between India and Pakistan; India conveyed pain and grief when terrorists massacred school children in Peshawar, while they eulogized terrorists. 

Modi’s mention of Balochistan and the POK region, including Gilgit and Baltistan, is an intrepid shift in India’s foreign policy. So far, India has never spoken a word against the mayhem perpetrated by Pakistan in the above-mentioned region. In the joint statement by Manmohan Singh and Yousaf Raza Gilani in 2009 at Sharm-el-Sheikh, both countries agreed to talk about Balochistan as Pakistan assured that its government possessed some credible information about terrorist activities in the province. In the long run, however, the statement did not actualise, and it has come to be seen as a diplomatic defeat for India.

Whenever India produced conclusive evidence on the involvement of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in terrorist activities within India, particularly, in Jammu & Kashmir, the Pakistani government always responded by falsely alleging that India is giving assistance to the Baloch insurgents. 

 Pakistan also tried to curb the rising Indian influence in Afghanistan by asserting that Indian consulates are supporting the Baloch rebellion. A few months back, the Pakistani security forces caught an innocent Indian national Kulbhushan Jadhav and alleged that he was an agent of Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW). Jadhav was accused of fomenting trouble in Balochistan. However, Pakistani security agencies neither gave consular access nor could provide any proof against Jadhav. 

The mineral rich Balochistan is the largest and poorest province, which was forcibly merged with Pakistan. Khan of Kalat wanted to stay independent but Pakistani army attacked Balochistan in 1948, and after some time it was incorporated into Pakistan against the wishes of the people of Balochistan. Hence, the insurgency in Balochistan is continuing since 1948. 

In 1973 six divisions of Pakistani army were deployed to crush a rebellion of more than 10000 Balochis of different revolutionary organizations. In the process, more than 5000 Balochis and 3000 Pakistani soldiers were killed. 

Pakistani army used heavy weapons and bombs to curb the uprising. Balochis were revolting against the economic exploitation by the Punjabi-dominated Pakistan government. Balochis were also resisting the sinister move of the Pakistani government to settle Punjabis in the Balochistan province with the intention of changing the demography of the state. 

Pakistan's government is using Balochistan as a colony and exploiting its mineral wealth. In 2006, the Pakistani army had to launch a massive operation to curb Baloch insurgency, in which the chief of powerful Bugti tribe Nawab Akbar Bugti was killed. It is ridiculous that now Pakistani leaders condemn Indian security forces for the use of pellet guns in Kashmir while Pakistani army used fighter jets and heavy artillery in Balochistan.

There are several Baloch separatist organizations, including the Balochistan Liberation Army, the Balochistan Liberation Front, the Baloch Republican Army, and the United Baloch Army. All these organisations have been working for an independent Balochistan. Other than these outfits, the public of Balochistan is totally against Punjabi domination and wants to secede. India, therefore, needs to give them moral and diplomatic support. India should provide them recognition in the international arena and give them a forum so that they can expose the atrocities, exploitation and human right violations of Pakistani security forces in Balochistan. 

It will be a hard-hitting lesson for Pakistan. So far it was internationalizing Kashmir issue and India was only rebutting its allegations. Now India will also be speaking out against Pakistani mayhem in Balochistan and the POK region. 

Kashmiri resistance cannot survive without external assistance. Balochis are, however, so fed up with the exploitation of the Pakistani government that they do not require any material assistance from India.

India should also keep Iran's reaction within consideration as the latter is against an independent Balochistan.  

The people of Balochistan are against USD 46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as it will neither benefit Balochistan nor its people. China is also reluctant to finance such a huge amount if the Pakistani government fail to control the insurgents in Balochistan.  Modi’s reference to Balochistan and POK is also a message to China as CPEC has to pass through both the regions. 

India must understand that there cannot be friendly relations with Pakistan. Firstly, it was created on the theory of hate. Secondly, the Pakistani army enjoys several advantages trumpeting the danger of Pakistan from India. Hence, it will never allow the civilian government to initiate cordial relations with its eastern neighbor.  General Raheel Sharif, Pakistan's army chief, who lost his elder brother Major Shabbir Sharif in 1971 war with India is personally against any amiable relation with India.  

Pakistan has waged a low-intensity war against India; dispersal of terrorism has become the main organ of its foreign policy. The despicable ISI is running several terrorist camps in various parts of the country, particularly, in POK, Waziristan, and several other areas. 

Indian security forces killed and nabbed several Pakistanis when they were carrying out terrorist activities in India. But Pakistan instead of impeding the nefarious activities of rogue ISI always pretended that these terrorists are non-state actors; they are involved in terrorist activities because of Islamic fervor, and the government has no control over them. 

Pakistani masses are delighted when an ISI-trained terrorist carry out terrorist activities in India. They consider it as the victory of Pakistan.

India must chalk out a long-term plan so that Pakistan gets a lesson similar to the war of 1971. In this connection, the powerful speech of Ajit Doval, India's national security advisor, at SASTRA University in 2014 is important. He warned Pakistan, "You can do one Mumbai, you may lose Balochistan".

Aviation & Defence Universe

WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/general-qamar-javed-bajwa-takes-pakistan-army-chief/

General Qamar Javed Bajwa Takes Over As Pakistan Army Chief

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Raheel Sharif hands over the baton peacefully but Nagrota happens

BY JK Verma

New Delhi. Pakistani army chief is the most powerful person in Pakistan. There is a saying that most countries have an army but Pakistani Army has a country. There were speculations that General Raheel Sharif who formulated an image of a hardliner, anti India and a powerful Chief of Pakistani army would not step down without giving a befitting reply to India of its surgical strike of September 29.

Nonetheless General Sharif belied all assumptions and like a true soldier handed over charge to General Qamar Javed Bajwa on November 29 exactly two months after the surgical strike which damaged his macho image. General Sharif made history by being the first Chief of Army Staff in last 20 years, who retired without seeking any extension. But Nagrota happened!

Pakistan was carved out from India in 1947 but all the four provinces including Balochistan, Pakhtoon Khawa, Sindh and Punjab in West Pakistan had intense desire to become autonomous states. Secondly after the partition, the then leaders of Pakistan including Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah thought that Indian leaders have not accepted the partition of the country and they will attack and again merge the new born nation. Pakistan’s Western neighbour Afghanistan had also refused to accept the creation of a new country hence Jinnah and other leaders favoured a strong centre and a powerful army. Therefore Pakistani leadership spent limited resources of the country in strengthening the armed forces and with the passage of time army became very powerful and it had not allowed the civilian institutions to grow.

In past Nawaz Sharif preferred Raheel Sharif as his reputation was of a professional soldier who had an aversion towards politics but with the passage of time he started deciding Pakistan’s relations with most of the important countries like India, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and United States.
Raheel Sharif, against the wishes of Nawaz Sharif, started Operation Zarb-i-Azb in North Waziristan and eradicated several terrorist outfits which were responsible for terrorist activities in Pakistan and considered as ‘bad terrorists’ by Inter Services Intelligence. Nawaz Sharif who promised before elections to negotiate with terrorist outfits was overruled.

Nawaz Sharif who is a businessman knows that both India and Pakistan can progress if they have friendly relations and in the beginning he wanted to have amiable relations with India but Pakistani Army which thrives on anti-India rhetoric countermanded him and despite best efforts of Prime Minister Modi, relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated.
Nawaz Sharif who selected several Army Chiefs knows well that Pakistani Army will remain supreme and the civilian administration cannot counter Army as an institution. Besides this the public image of army is far superior in comparison to the political leadership which is considered to be thoroughly corrupt. The names of family members of Nawaz Sharif already appeared in ‘Panama Papers” for having ‘offshore holdings’.

General Bajwa played a positive role towards democracy in 2014 when Tahirul Qadri and Imran Khan were protesting against Nawaz Sharif government and were demanding his resignation. Analysts claim that General Bajwa’s pro-democracy image also helped him in becoming Chief of Pakistani army.
General Bajwa, superseded Lieutenant-General Syed Wajid Hussain, Lieutenant-General Najibullah Khan, Lieutenant-General Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmed including Lieutenant-General Javed Iqbal Ramday who had been posted in 10 Corps and has experience of Kashmir affairs which is a hot spot at this juncture.

General Zubair Mahmood Hayat was appointed as the Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC). Although the post of CJCSC is senior to Army chief but Pakistan Army Chief is the most powerful person in the country. He took over as Chief after a tenure at the GHQ as the Inspector General of the Training and Evaluation from 2015 to 2016 and as the Corps Commander X Corps from 2013 to 2015 which is responsible for the area along the Line of Control. Bajwa also served as a peacekeeper in the UN mission in Congo as a brigade commander. Commissioned in 16 Baloch Regiment on 24 October 1980, in 1982, he was shifted to the Sindh Regiment.

Pakistani press and public feel that General Bajwa being apolitical and relaxed person would return back the power to the civilian government. The analysts mention that as Bajwa has a leaning towards democracy and is a low-profile general hence it will be easy for the civilian government to deal with him.

General Sharif lost his uncle in 1965 India Pakistan war while his real elder brother who was his mentor was also killed in 1971 war with India. Hence General Sharif had an inherent aversion towards India. It is anticipated that General Bajwa who has no repugnance towards India may be helpful in easing out the current tense atmosphere between both the countries.

However the strategic experts claim that ISI sponsored two terrorist attacks on at Nagrota in which seven army personnel including two majors were killed was a blunt message to General Bajwa that he should not meddle with low intensity war launched by ISI against India.
Pakistan watchers unanimously feel that Indian security forces should not expect any major change in Pakistani sponsored terrorist activities because of change of army chief.

Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told a Pakistani news channel that “The focus will remain on country’s eastern border and the armed forces backed by the nation will meet all challenges”. He further mentioned that “The legacy of General Raheel Sharif would continue in the light of the examples he set”.
General Bajwa would face problems at many fronts especially with its Eastern as well as Western neighbours. After surgical strike of India Pakistani forces enhanced shelling on Indo-Pak border and ISI is infiltrating terrorists at a large scale. The tension between both the nuclear countries is enhancing and General Bajwa may try to tone down the tension.

The terrorist incidents in Afghanistan are also enhanced and Afghan government alleges that ISI sponsored terrorist outfits are responsible for these terrorist acts. Pakistan should genuinely reduce its assistance to terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan so that relations between both the countries improve.

US administration under Donald Trump will be much more stringent against terrorism in comparison to his predecessor and Pakistani army and government have to work hard to inculcate friendly relations.

Pakistani masses are fed up with several terrorist activities in the country hence Bajwa had to be more stringent with the terrorist outfits. The Pakistan analysts mention that operation Zarb-e-Azb will continue with more vigour and strength not only in tribal areas and Karachi but it will also expand in other areas. General Bajwa should also try to control ISI which is sponsoring terrorism in India so that the relation with its eastern neighbour is improved.

Nonetheless the primary task of General Bajwa would be to inculcate cordial relations with the civilian government which is essential for the progress of the country as well as for a smooth foreign policy.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based former diplomat and strategic analyst. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com.)

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US Senate Blocks Subsidy For The Sale Of Eight F-16s To Pakistan

·         Asks Pakistan to buy its F-16s by making complete payment

By JK Verma

 New Delhi. 15 May, 2016. The civilian government of Nawaz Sharif which is already under immense pressure, due to the leak of Panama papers which contains the names of his family members for having companies abroad and hostile attitude of Pakistan army Chief  Raheel Sharif, got a big jolt when US administration informed that it will not subsidize the sale of eight F-16 Fighter jets and Foreign Military Funds (FMF) will not be available to Pakistan for purchase of F-16s.

The critics of Nawaz government claimed that it is a clear-cut case of failure of foreign policy of Pakistan. The Indian lobbyists successfully influenced US Senate which indirectly blocked the sale. Indian Prime Minister also raised objections with US authorities in April when he visited US to attend Nuclear Security Summit. It appears that US appreciated India’s concern and put such a condition that it killed the deal.

Sartaz Aziz Advisor to Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs stated that Pakistan government is negotiating with Obama administration, US Congressmen to withdraw this stipulation and the deal is still not fizzled out completely but top foreign policy wizards mention that Obama administration which also wanted to inculcate better relations with India will not render any assistance to Pakistan.

In October 2015, US approved sale of eight F-16s to Pakistan for counterterrorist operations mainly on border areas of Afghanistan. It was agreed that Pakistan will pay USD 270 million while USD 430 will be paid by USA. However the dominant Senate Foreign Relations Committee refused to subsidize the sale as the US law makers stressed that Pakistan had not taken any consequential action against various terrorist outfits which are operating from its soil, it is also supporting diverse Taliban groups in Afghanistan especially Haqqani network which is attacking US forces in the country,  Dr.Shakeel Afridi, on whose information Osama bin Laden was exterminated, is still in prison,  and F-16s would be used against India and not against terrorists. Pakistan’s unrestricted nuclear programme is also cause of concern in US.

 The leaders of Balochistan Liberation Army including Mehran Marri, the European Union representative of Balochistan claimed that Pakistan army would use F-16s to crush independence movement of Balochistan as most of the terrorist groups are financed by ISI and these outfits work under the instructions of rogue intelligence agency hence no worthwhile action will be taken against the terrorist outfits.

The powerful Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has collected conclusive evidence that sponsoring of terrorism is the part of state policy of Pakistan and it has waged low intensity war against India and Afghanistan. It trains, shelters, provides weapons and renders financial assistance to various terrorist outfits, although it claims that these terrorist outfits are non-state actors but the fact is that these terror groups work under the instructions of nefarious ISI.

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) possesses about 70 F-16s and Pakistani authorities accept that F-16s are very effective but the country is in no position to pay full price of the aircraft, hence it would opt for JF-17 Thunder jets which were developed jointly by Pakistan and China. PAF may also try Chinese J-10 and J-20 stealth fighter aircraft or Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter aircraft in case F-16 deal is dissipated.

India cannot stop China from assisting Pakistan as China helps out Pakistan with ulterior motive of countering India. China successfully obstructs India’s economic growth by instigating Pakistan for carrying out terrorist activities in the country. Nonetheless India must use its good offices so that Russia does not supply armaments to Pakistan which are bound to be used against India.

Here it will not be out of point to mention that The Russian Federation which traditionally had close friendly relations with India is unhappy over growing India US relations hence it is also inculcating amiable ties with India’s arch rival Pakistan by agreeing to sale military hardware.  In recent past, Pakistan and Russia signed bilateral defence cooperation agreement and Russia also agreed to sale four Mi-35 attack helicopters to Pakistan.

Pakistan also claims that it would not accept any restriction about the use of F-16 which was very useful in counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations including Operation Zarb-e-Azb against the terrorists.  F-16s were very effective in bombarding terrorists’ hideouts in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) where several thousand terrorists were either killed or escaped from the area.

Pakistan government can utilize FMF for purchase of other military hardware excluding F-16s. Although Pakistan purchased weapons worth several billion USDs from US and US gave several billion USD as aid but Pakistani authorities still allege that India is strengthening its defence capability hence the balance of power is heavily tilted in India’s favour.The analysts mention that US needs support from Pakistan to deal various terrorist outfits in Afghanistan. There is no doubt that the military controlled ISI has a considerable influence on various Taliban factions especially Haqqani group but it renders assistance only if US adheres to its conditions. Pakistanis claim that at present General Sharif is acting quite stringently against various terrorist outfits and blocking of the sale of F-16 will affect Pakistan’s resolve against the terror outfits.

Pakistan is also worried that if Donald Trump becomes US President, who is anti Muslim and anti Pakistan, US policy towards Pakistan may take a turnaround and Pakistan will not get much assistance from US.

Meanwhile Pakistan political leadership  is trying to brush aside this development for public consumption. At a breakfast meeting in Islamabad, the foreign secretary Aizaz Chaudhry said, “no conditions should be attached to the sale of F-16s because Pakistan plans to use the jets only for the purpose of fighting terrorists. ” And if sources are to be believed ,Pakistan has conveyed to the US that it does not have the money to buy F-16 jets without subsidies and has warned that it may consider looking towards some other seller and buying some other fighter aircraft to meet its existing requirement. And Pakistani corridors of power really believe that this will make US rethink on its decision. Well if wishes were horse the beggars would ride!

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)