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Nepal Plunges Into Political Crisis : Parliament Dissolved

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Former freinds turn foe
Courtesy : nepal24hours.com

Oli & Prachanda at loggerheads

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 27 December 2020. When it comes to the Himalayas the erstwhile kingdom turned democracy – Nepal, has had the most complex and turbulent times when it comes to geopolitics . Trying to balance between the two big wigs on its either side and combating political instability, Nepal has a tough path to tread on.

At present the Himalayan kingdom is passing through a difficult phase as a strong demand has emerged about the restoration of monarchy in the country which was ousted in 2008. The royalists claim that communism has destroyed the country and democracy is also unsuccessful. People also demanded that Nepal should again become a Hindu Rashtra. The country is also suffering from the revival of violence by Maoists.

The political crisis deepened in the Himalayan Kingdom as President Bidhya Devi Bhandari quickly acted on the advice of Prime Minister K P Sharma and dissolved the parliament. President Bhandari also announced that general elections will be held on 30 April and 10 May 2021 which is about an year before the schedule. Nonetheless the opponents claim that as Oli is aware that he lost support in the public because of his faulty policies and excessively leaning towards Beijing he may postpone the elections under the pretext of coronavirus pandemic or advent of rainy season etc.

Nepalese Parliament Building

The dissolution of parliament was not only opposed by the opposition parties but even the senior leaders and party workers of the ruling party also criticised the decision as unconstitutional. Pushpa Kamal Dahal commonly known as Prachanda and Chairman of Nepal Communist Party (NCP) and twice prime minister of the country was also against the decision. The NCP was suffering from infighting between Oli and Dahal on power sharing, several party leaders also claim that Oli has side-lined them and key posts in the administration were given to his henchmen only. The party leaders demanded the resignation of Oli while the party workers and opposition parties resorted to demonstrations and protests. Seven ministers resigned and about ninety members of parliament (MPs) of NCP registered vote of no-confidence when Oli recommended for the dissolution of parliament. The MPs mentioned that it was a betrayal to the public as they have elected them for five years in 2017 elections.

Prachanda & Xi freindship

The political pundits also criticised president for accepting the recommendation of Oli and dissolving the parliament quickly. They mention that the dissolution of parliament was unconstitutional as under the present constitution the dissolution cannot be recommended unless there are possibilities of constituting another government. The dissolution of parliament and internal strife in the NCP may create a political instability in the country. Several persons have challenged the dissolution of parliament in Supreme Court and the court started the hearing of 13 petitions against the dissolution of parliament from 23 December. On 25 December, the Supreme Court issued a show-cause notice to Oli government to submit a written reply about the dissolution of the parliament. The five-member Constitutional bench headed by Chief Justice Cholendra Shumsher Rana also asked the government to provide the original copy of the recommendations made by the government to the president pertaining to the dissolution of the parliament and the order passed by the president.

Oli came to power on the assurance of stable, honest, and blameless government which will devote its full energy in the economic development of the nation. Nevertheless, Oli failed to deliver, and his government was blemished with allegations of corruption, undue favours to China and acting against India. The government failed to handle coronavirus pandemic effectively and the demand of Oli’s resignation strengthened.

Oli’s visit Prime Minister Modi Strong handshake

The influence of China has considerably enhanced during the tenure of Prime Minister Oli. 90 percent of foreign direct investment in the current financial year came from China and President Xi Jinping promised financial assistance of about $ 500 million during his Nepal’s visit in October 2019. Beijing which has deep pockets has invested millions of dollars in infrastructure projects including hydropower projects in Nepal. Oli government has also signed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by Beijing in 2013. It is a dream project of Xi Jinping which is spread in about 70 countries and international organisations.

Oli government on one hand cultivated close ties with Beijing and on the other hand alleged that Delhi is attempting to “bully” Kathmandu. He also charged that Indian agencies are trying to overthrow him by inciting leaders and workers of Nepal Communist Party. Oli also charged that Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura areas from where the newly built road by India passes are parts of Nepal. The 80 KMs road was connecting India and China through Lipulek is a part of the Kailash-Mansarovar pilgrimage route. The road is strategically important as it reduces the distance to China. Not only this on 13 June in a special session Nepalese Parliament passed a Constitutional Amendment Bill and updated Nepal’s map which showed these area in the country. Oli did it on behest of China and arouse anti-India sentiments with ulterior motive of strengthening himself. However, ‘Prachanda’ criticised Oli for his anti-India rhetoric and stated that “The Prime Minister’s remarks that India was conspiring to remove him was neither politically correct, nor diplomatically appropriate.” Prachanda also demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Oli.

Nepalese Parliament in session

The power struggle between Oli and Prachanda has divided the Communist Party of Nepal which came into existence after the merger of Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist led by Oli and Nepal Communist Party (Maoist) headed by Prachanda, in May 2018. The merger of both the communist parties occurred because of pressure from China. Again, China tried its level best to avoid the split in the party. Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hao Yankee is highly active and besides president and Prime Minister, she met several prominent leaders of Nepal including Prachanda, Madhav Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal. She also met leaders of Nepali Congress. After the split of Communist Party of Nepal, China is trying that both the factions contest elections jointly so that CPN can constitute the government. China wants that Communist Party should remain in power whether it is led by Oli or Prachanda is not important.

China besides trade and infrastructure has also inculcated close ties on defence matters with Nepal. Chinese defence minister General Wei Fenghe visited Nepal in the last week of November to bolster military cooperation.

At the time of merger of both the communist paties, it was decided that both the leaders would head the government by turn but Oli refused to honour the commitment after he remained Prime Minister for two and half years. Oli recommended for the dissolution of parliament when he realised that he lost majority in the party as well as in parliament. Now both the factions are pleading in Election Commission that they are the real party. Although Oli lost majority in the party as well as in parliament but as parliament is dissolved hence now the fate of both the factions will be decided by Election Commission and the Supreme Court.

The legal experts claim that dissolution of parliament in Nepal is not new. In reality no Prime Minister completed a full-five-year term in last 30 years and the government changed for about 25 times, but it was the first time after promulgation of new constitution in 2015 which provides safeguards against the dissolution. Hence not only the constitution of 2015 is at stake but the salient features of the constitution including federalism, secularism and even democracy is at stake as people are demanding the restoration of monarchy.

The opposition parties like Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party expect to win more seats in the forthcoming elections as the votes of Communist Party would be divided.

Oli-Xi friendship strong

The opposition parties as well as several leaders of NCP also criticised Oli for leaning excessively towards China which is counterproductive. Nepal is a land-locked country and is dependent on India on several important things hence it must maintain cordial relations with both the countries. Oli’s action of publishing political map of Nepal including few Indian territories was a very undiplomatic and anti-India move.

The meeting of Chinese Ambassador with Nepalese President, Prime Minister and several other senior political leaders was considered as a direct interference in the internal matter of Nepal and it was criticised by leaders and eminent Nepalese. Students and other Nepalese also held demonstrations in front of Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu against Chinese interference in the internal affairs of the country.

India acted with patience and not reacted aggressively against undiplomatic moves and anti-India statements of Oli. Indian Chief of Army Staff, Foreign Secretary and the Chief of Research and Analysis Wing visited Kathmandu and met Oli and other important leaders and explained the Indian viewpoints while China acted very aggressively hence large number of Nepalese became anti-China as they felt that China interfered in the internal affairs of the country.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Greater Nepal : A Spark Which Could Become A Fire

India should be cautious and vigilant
It is not a threat but an irritant
Just the bait anti-India forces would jump at

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 19 September 2020. When India is suffering from a major geopolitical migraine, it’s Himalayan neighbour Nepal is suddenly adding a little more to this. Recently the news channels in India were full of the news that an organisation in Nepal has released a map of Greater Nepal which has conveniently added a large part of India to it. The growing concept of “Greater Nepal” is an irredentist notion which visualises to include several areas of India which were occupied by Gorkha army after conquering the neighbouring states between 1791 to 1804. The genesis of the idea of Greater Nepal is also linked with ultra-nationalism. However, the idea was exploited by anti-India forces with active involvement of the powerful Chinese intelligence agency the Ministry of State Security (MSS). The MSS which deals with both internal as well as external intelligence is very active in neighbouring countries and its agents always try to spread anti-India sentiments. MSS is one of the most secretive intelligence agency in the world.

The ‘Greater Nepal’ includes areas of Sikkim, West Bengal, UttraKhand and Himanchal Pradesh. Several important cities of India including Darjeeling, Nainital, Almora and Dehradun are part of proposed ‘Greater Nepal’. The proponents of ‘Greater Nepal’ claim that all these areas were part of Nepal, but the Gurkha King was defeated in the Anglo-Nepalese War and East India Company forced Nepalese king to surrender all these areas and had to sign Sugauli Treaty in December 1815 which was ratified in 1816. The treaty which was a Nepali surrender to East India Company was signed by Raj Guru Gajaraj Mishra with Chandra Shekhar Upadhaya for Nepal and representative of British East India Company. However now Nepalese claim that it was an unjust treaty and lost its significance in the present democratic era. Nepalese also claim that Nepal ceded about 105,000 KMs of area and now the present area of Nepal is only 147,181 KMs. In 1923 the British Government replaced Sugauli Treaty with a “Treaty of Perpetual Peace and Friendship” while in 1950 both India and Nepal converted the treaty into ‘Indo-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship’.

The advocates of ‘Greater Nepal’ plead that the 1950 treaty should be abrogated as it leans disproportionately in favour of India. Phanindra Nepal Chief of a NGO namely Greater Nepal Nationalist Front (GNLF) is a staunch supporter of ‘Greater Nepal’ besides the NGO there are few small political parties including Greater Nepal Nationalist Front (GNNF) and pro-China and anti-India elements also support the idea of ‘Greater Nepal’.

Sometimes back the GNLF and GNNF launched a signature campaign in which they demanded that India should return the territory which Nepal had to surrender under Sugauli Treaty. The organisers of signature campaign also claimed that they will send the signed petition to Nepalese president, Secretary General and all the five permanent members of United Nations to pressurise India to abrogate the unjust treaty and return the occupied land to Nepal.

The exponents of ‘Greater Nepal’ also emphasise that not only the treaty of Sugauli was unjustified, but the residents of the areas annexed from Nepal are either Nepalese or are racially, culturally and lingually closer to Nepal than India. The Nepal watchers claim that MSS has lot of influence in Nepal and the possibility of the Chinese intelligence agency instigating anti-India activities cannot be ruled out.

Recently Nepal objected on the construction of a 80 KMs long strategic road which connects Dharchula (India) from Tibet Plateau region. The road passes from Indian territory and is useful for the supply of defence armaments. Nepal protested for the construction of road and also claimed that Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limliyadhura are all Nepalese territory. In fact, K. P. Sharma Oli government passed a Constitution Amendment Bill and published a map containing these Indian territory. The map was also passed by Nepalese Parliament. The possibility that MSS was behind the move cannot be ruled out.

The promoters of ‘Greater Nepal’ claim the territory from India but do not mention about the areas of Tibet which were also won over by Gorkha army in the wars fought with Tibetan army in 1789 to 1791. The Chinese defeated Gorkhha army in 1792 in Sino-Nepalese War and Gorkhas had to vacate the Tibetan territory. Although the Nepalese claim Indian territory under ‘Greater Nepal’ but the effective presence of Gorkha army was only for few years. The Gorkhali presence in Garhwal was for 12 years, Kumaon 24 years and Sikkim 33 years.

Besides Nepal the idea of ‘Greater Nepal’ may also get support from Sikkim and Nepali-speaking people residing in southern Bhutan. In 1991, a Greater Nepal Committee was also constituted in Kathmandu. The committee wrote letters to embassies of different countries in Kathmandu, emphasising that India should return Nepali territories situated in east of Mechi river and west of Mahakali river. The committee’s aim was to build a public opinion in favour of ‘’Greater Nepal’ in Nepal as well as abroad.

At present neither government nor the main political parties support the idea of ‘Greater Nepal’. Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda Chairman of Nepal Communist Party and two times Prime Minister stated in an interview to an important newspaper that the concept of Greater Nepal was ‘a media stunt’. The Nepali Congress leader and former Prime Minister late Girja Prasad Koirala was more straight forward when he told the journalists that the concept of ‘Greater Nepal’ is “a product of unstable mind”.

It is a fact that at present there is not much support to the idea of ‘Greater Nepal’ in the Himalayan kingdom. But the idea of ‘Greater Nepal’ has support of anti-India forces in Nepal and the pro-Chinese lobby also tries to exploit it to generate anti-India sentiments. The intelligence sources claim that MSS agents also actively support the idea of ‘Greater Nepal’.

Secondly India’s nemesis Pakistan also alleges that India is an expansionist country and not yielding to the rightful claim of its neighbour Nepal. It will instigate Nepal to raise the issue in diverse international forums. Here it will not be out of point to mention that Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan telephoned to Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in July 2020 and desired to have close relations between both the countries. Imran Khan called his counterpart in Bangladesh when the relations between Dacca and New Delhi were little tense.

India is averse to the idea of ‘Greater Nepal’ as geographically it would control water resources, hydropower, tourism etc. which may be harmful for India.

Hence Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) should keep an eye on this anti-India movement in Nepal as well as its influence abroad especially in United Nations and other international organisations. MEA can also take help of Indian intelligence agencies in knowing the details of the movement and also to ascertain the role of Indian adversaries especially China and Pakistan.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Chinese Intelligence Agency MSS Calls The Shots For Nepal’s PM KPS OlI

The protector with the protected

· China’s Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi is trying to save Oli’s government

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 12 July 2020. Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi is currently extremely busy trying to save Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government in Kathmandu. She is meeting Nepalese leaders of diverse factions of Communist Party of Nepal, to prevent Oli’s government from toppling.

K.P. Sharma Oli first served as Prime Minster from 11 October 2015 to 3 August 2016 and then again from 15 February 2018, after Communist Party of Nepal (UML) emerged as the largest party in the elections and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) agreed to support Oli’s candidature. Oli has the unstinting support of Ministry of State Security (MSS) the powerful intelligence agency of People’s Republic of China. MSS which is one of the most secretive intelligence organisation in the world handles both counterintelligence as well as foreign intelligence. MSS has cultivated long-term assets in different factions of Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) and at other strategic places.

Hou Yanqi met former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ recently at his residence. Dahal was twice prime minister of Nepal and is an important leader of Nepal Communist Party. He has challenged Oli’s leadership. When she reached his residence Ghanshyam Bhusal Agriculture Minister and Yogesh Bhattarai Minister for Tourism and Civil Aviation were present however, she waited and after their departure she had “one-on-one” meeting with Prachanda for about 50 minutes. In the meeting both discussed how to resolve the present crisis and maintain the unity of the party.

She had closed door, one-on-one meetings with several top leaders of Nepal including President Bidhya Devi Bhandari, Prime Minister Oli, former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and other important CPN leaders. Nepal Foreign Ministry officials complained that Chinese ambassador is breaking the diplomatic protocol. According to protocol a foreign ministry official must be present while ambassador of a foreign country is meeting the President. Madhav Kumar Nepal also mentioned that the non-stop meetings of Chinese ambassador with various Nepalese leadership indicates that China is interfering in the internal matter of the country.

Prachanda and others are pressing for Oli’s resignation from prime ministership as well as from the party’s Chairmanship. Oli has threatened to split the party, but Hou knows in case party is divided Oli will lose majority and he will not able to continue as prime minister. China wants to retain Oli as he is totally anti-India and follows the dictates of China. In Oli’s first stint as prime minister the relations between India and Nepal became all-time low. Oli won the latest elections on anti-India rhetoric.

In May 2020 when the world was in a lockdown, Ambassador Hou met several party leaders and other bigwigs and was able to retain the unity in CPN and saved Oli. Prachanda and Oli also had six rounds of talks, but they could not reach on any agreement. Meanwhile Oli also spread rumours amidst the ministers that Prachanda is trying to impeach the President Bidya Devi Bhandari and conveniently mentioned this to President Bhandari, so that her followers support him against Prachanda. Oli realising that things are getting tough for him approached the Nepali Congress but failed. He also met Chief of Army Staff of Nepal Army understanding that only Chinese assistance is not enough.

The crucial meeting of the Nepal Communist Party’s 45 member Standing Committee is getting postponed repeatedly and Oli knows that he lost the majority. Oli to save himself decided to blame India for the trouble in Nepal which also helped Beijing.

India and Nepal share a 1,800 km long open border and the major portion of the border is demarcated however there is dispute on some segments of the border. Nevertheless, a vital controversy emerged when Rajnath Singh Defence Minister of India inaugurated a 80 km- long strategically important road which links Dharchula in India via Lipulekh pass to the Kailash- Mansarovar area in the Tibet plateau region. The Lipulekh pass is near Nepal but is not in Nepal. The road is also used by Hindu and Buddhist pilgrims to reach Mount Kailash.

Nepal government immediately protested and mentioned that the road passes from Nepalese territory and it was built without diplomatic negotiations. Oli government also passed a Constitution Amendment Bill which included Indian territories Limpiadhura, Lipulek and Kalapani in Nepal. Oli in collaboration with MSS organised widespread public protests against India and unveiled a new map in May 2020 which included Indian territories of Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limliyadhura. The map was approved by parliament and also, by president in June 2020.

The Government of Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli is passing from the most difficult internal political crisis, hence he grabbed the opportunity and diverted the attention of masses from anti-government protests to anti-India demonstrations. Oli mustered public opinion and Nepal immediately deployed police force in the region, summoned Indian Ambassador in Kathmandu and brought constitutional amendment. India simply mentioned to resolve the issue through diplomatic negotiations but after the COVID-19 crisis is over. The territory claimed by Nepal is under Indian occupation from 60 years or more and the construction of road took few years, but Kathmandu never objected it hence the statement of India’s Chief of Army Staff that Nepal brought this issue “at the behest” of a third party appears to be true. In 2015 China recognised India’s sovereignty in the area but at this time it instigated Nepal to protest against India.

Prime Minister Oli is close to Beijing and Chinese influence in Nepal has increased during his tenure. In past when he was in trouble and about to be ousted from Prime Ministership, Chinese intelligence agency Ministry of State Security (MSS) came to his rescue and called a meeting of various factions of Communist Party of Nepal and pressed them to retain Oli as Prime Minister.

The present road existed before and was used by the pilgrims and local residents of the area and Nepal never objected hence India never expected that Nepal will object so vehemently. India converted the unmetaled track into a strategic road through which Indian forces can reach to Tibet plateau at the earliest, which was not liked by China hence it instigated Nepal to raise the issue so forcefully. Not only this India released the political map in November 2019 after defanging of Article 370 and partitioning J&K in two union territories. It was also against Chinese interest hence Prime Minister Oli raised the issue on Chinese bidding.

Oli is continuing with anti-India measures and it stopped transmission of all Indian private channels except Doordarshan. Oli government claimed that private channels are criticising Oli government. Oli is so indebted to China that when Chinese forces captured some Nepalese villages his government had not objected. As China’s influence is increasing in Nepal it is trying to mitigate India’s influence in the country. Nepali leaders also play China card to have better deal and attention of India.

Both India and Nepal should chalk out a detailed plan so that the bilateral relations remain cordial and friendly. India should stop thinking about the right of first refusal and should not consider Nepal as its satellite as the latter has adopted the policy of diversification so that its dependence on India reduces. China is increasing its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) hence India must change its mindset towards Nepal. India should try to analyse and if feasible to accept the report submitted by the Eminent Persons Group which was prepared by the persons of both the countries and submitted in 2018.

Both Modi and Oli interacted several times and India also stressed on interdependence and connectivity. Several important projects including inland waterway navigation, cross border pipeline for petroleum products, rail and road links were initiated. India is observing silence on the present crisis as Oli will try to befuddle India’s initiative to generate more anti-India feelings. Oli knows that Nepal can never force India to surrender the territories claimed by Nepal hence raising anti-India issue has become counter-productive.

Nepal is sandwiched between two Asian superpowers hence it must be careful and should try to resolve the disputes through diplomatic channels. It should also consider that being a landlocked country it has to depend on India for several items. It will be difficult for China to become India’s substitute because of geographical compulsions hence Oli government should not try to earn political capital by arousing anti-India sentiments. Oli should also remember that only MSS will not able to save his government all the time and he must maintain cordial relations with both India and China.

Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com

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China instigated Nepal against India, planning more skirmishes to corner New Delhi

China feels that India is also acting against it; hence, it is creating troubles for India. Before the protest from Nepal, it instigated Pakistan, writes Jai Kumar Verma for South Asia Monitor

By Jai Kumar Verma May 27, 2020

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India and Nepal share 1,690 km long open and peaceful border and 97 percent of the border between both the countries are demarcated. However the areas in Kalapani and Susta are not marked. Hence on May 11, 2020, Kathmandu summoned Indian Ambassador to Nepal Vinay Kwatra and handed over a diplomatic note to protest against building of a road which connects Lipulekh pass and Pithoragarh. The road which was inaugurated by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on May 8 is 80 km long and it touches the India-China-Nepal tri-junction. The road will be helpful to the troops deputed on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on the India-China borders and will also be beneficial to the pilgrims of Kailash Mansarovar.

The Lipulekh pass is near Kalapani, which is a disputed territory between India and Nepal. However, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a statement on May 9, mentioning, that “the recently inaugurated road section in Pithoragarh district in the state of Uttarakhand lies completely within the territory of India. The road follows the pre-existing route used by the pilgrims of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. Under the present project, the same road has been made pliable for the ease and convenience of pilgrims, locals and traders.” But, Nepal claimed that the road is constructed on Nepalese territory and India’s action is “unilateral”.

Meanwhile, Indian Army chief, General Manoj Mukund Naravane without naming China hinted that Nepal might be protesting on the behest of someone else. General Naravane was replying to questions after a talk at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses on May 15. He further stated that there is no dispute on the land, and it is difficult to understand why Nepal is protesting. The army chief made it clear that there is no relation between the current clashes between Indian and Chinese armies at North Sikkim and Eastern Ladakh with Nepalese protest.

However, Nepal strongly refuted the charges that Nepal is protesting on behest of China. Nepalese Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali stated while giving an interview to an Indian TV network that Nepal will never allow another country to interfere in its internal matters. He further stated that although Nepal has cordial relations with China, it pursues a neutral foreign policy and it has cordial relations with both the neighbours. Here it is interesting to note that both India and China had bilateral agreement on the road link which Nepal claims as its territory.

Nepalese Foreign Minister summoned the Indian envoy and lodged a strong protest. The minister mentioned that India’s unilateral decision is contrary to the understanding between both the countries. Nepal was trying to have a meeting after India published a map in November 2019 and voiced its objections. However, India had not given dates for the meeting. The timings of the inauguration of the road is also questionable as Nepal is fighting from coronavirus and the opposition parties got an important point to embarrass Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli, who is under immense pressure from the opposition.

A tough power struggle is going on between Pushpa Kamal Dahal, known as Prachanda, and Prime Minister Oli. Prachanda is the Chairman of Nepal Communist Party and twice prime minister of Nepal. According to media reports, Oli is in trouble as several senior party members may ask him to resign. However, Chinese intelligence agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS) is trying to ensure that the present government continues.

Nepal is protesting and the public is agitating since India updated the map on November 2, 2019, in which Kalapani was shown as an Indian territory. Nepal claims it as its area. The Nepal government deployed Armed Police Force (APF) at Lipulekh after a week India inaugurated the road. Now the APF is regularly patrolling the area. The Nepalese public is demanding that the prime minister should talk to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and resolve this issue. Nepalese foreign ministry has issued a press note in which it mentioned that the eastern area (Lipulekh, Kalapani, Limpiyadhura) of Mahakali river is Nepalese territory. Several Nepalese members of parliament had demanded that Nepal should publish its own map of the area in which these areas are shown as Nepalese territory.

On May 20, the Nepal government officially issued a new map that showed Lipulekh, Kalapani, and Limpiyadhura under its territory. The development had come a day after Nepal prime minister had declared in the Parliament that the Kalapani area belonged 'indisputably' to Nepal and his government will wrest control of it. In its reply to Nepal unveiling its new political map, India said such artificial enlargement of territorial claims by Nepal will not be acceptable to it and asked the neighbouring country to refrain from "unjustified cartographic assertion." "This unilateral act is not based on historical facts and evidence. It is contrary to the bilateral understanding to resolve the outstanding boundary issues through diplomatic dialogue," External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Anurag Srivastava said. "Such artificial enlargement of territorial claims will not be accepted by India.” "Nepal is well aware of India’s consistent position on this matter and we urge the government of Nepal to refrain from such unjustified cartographic assertion and respect India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," Srivastava said.

Internationally, at present, China is facing trouble as several countries are alleging that either China is responsible for the spread of coronavirus or it has not taken due precautions to prevent it from becoming a big pandemic by which the whole world is now suffering. Companies of several countries are planning to relocate from China and few countries have slashed the purchases from China. US President Donald Trump is regularly issuing statements against China and trade war between both the countries is yet to be resolved. China feels that India is also acting against it; hence, it is creating troubles for India.

Before the protest from Nepal, it instigated Pakistan. On April 30, Pakistan Supreme Court permitted the government to hold general elections in Gilgit and Baltistan, which is part of Kashmir and illegally occupied by Pakistan. The court also permitted the formation of a caretaker government during the intervening period. Indian and Chinese troops also clashed at Line of Actual Control (LAC) on May 5 and 9.

Hence, the possibility that China opt for some more skirmishes with India to divert the world's attention cannot be ruled out.

(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of USI and IDSA. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

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Nepal’s Anti-India Protest: Wooing China By Playing The Domestic Card

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 22 May 2020. Rarely in the recent past has India’s focus on disturbed bilateral ties shifted from China and Pakistan. But in the last fortnight it is our friend in all times Nepal which is in spotlight and has deviated India from it’s centre of attention as Nepal has taken an adversarial stand and released a controversial map showing Indian territories of Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura in Uttaranchal as its own. But the point to ponder is that why has Nepal created this cartographic deviation?

It definitely seems to be a reaction to the eighty kilometres long newly constructed link road which connects Pithoragarh with Lipulekh Pass, which is a strategic road which touches the India-China-Nepal trijunction and was inaugurated by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on 8 May. The newly constructed road will be beneficial to the Indian security force personnel posted at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and will also be advantageous for the travellers of Kailash Man Sarovar. Three days after the inauguration of the road, Nepal Foreign Office summoned Indian ambassador on 11 May and protested through a diplomatic note against the construction of this road.

The Foreign Ministry of Nepal issued a strong message against the inauguration of the road and stated that it was a breach of an agreement between both the countries. The statement also mentioned that “This unilateral act runs against the understanding reached between the two countries including at the level of Prime Ministers that a solution to boundary issues would be sought through negotiation”. The statement referred to the agreement between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Nepalese Prime Minister Sushil Koirala in 2014 where it was mentioned that all outstanding boundary issues would be sorted out by Foreign Secretaries.

India has responded to the revised map of Nepal strongly the same day and the Ministry of External Affairs official spokesperson Anurag Srivastava said, ” the Government of Nepal has released a revised official map of Nepal today that includes parts of Indian territory. This unilateral act is not based on historical facts and evidence. It is contrary to the bilateral understanding to resolve the outstanding boundary issues through diplomatic dialogue. Such artificial enlargement of territorial claims will not be accepted by India. Nepal is well aware of India’s consistent position on this matter and we urge the Government of Nepal to refrain from such unjustified cartographic assertion and respect India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We hope that the Nepalese leadership will create a positive atmosphere for diplomatic dialogue to resolve the outstanding boundary issues.”

The following day Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) also issued a statement mentioning that the current road is within the territory of India. It stated, “The road follows the pre-existing route used by the pilgrims of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. Under the present project, the same road has been made pliable for the ease and convenience of pilgrims, locals and traders. India is committed to resolving outstanding boundary issues through diplomatic dialogue and in the spirit of our close and friendly bilateral relations with Nepal”.

It may be recalled that in Nepal Prime Minister K.P.Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” are both co-chairmen of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), issued separate statements but mentioned that building the road when the world is fighting from coronavirus is “deplorable” and pleaded that both India and Nepal should solve the issue. Few student unions especially affiliated to ruling Nepal Communist Party including All Nepal National Free Students Union (ANNFSU) protested outside Indian Embassy in Kathmandu regarding the building of the new road.

Nepal proclaims that Kalapani is integral part of their Darchula Jilla in the Sudurpashchim Pradesh , one of the seven provinces established by the new constitution of Nepal which was adopted on 20 September 2015. It borders the Tibet Autonomous Region of China to the north, Karnali Pradesh and Province No. 5 to the east, and the Indian states of Uttarakhand to the west and Uttar Pradesh to the south. Initially known as Province No. 7, the newly elected Provincial Assembly adopted Sudurpashchim Pradesh as the permanent name for the province in September 2018. The province is coterminous with the former Far-Western Development Region, Nepal.

India’s claim to Kalapani dates back to British Era. The administrative and revenue records dating back to 1830s (available with the UP state government), show that Kalapani area has traditionally been administered as part of Pithoragarh district. Vide Article 5 of the Segauli Treaty (1816), Nepal had renounced all claims to areas ‘lying west of the river Kali’. The Kali (now Mahakali) river thus evolved into a well-identified border demarcation in the west.

Significantly, British India conducted the first regular surveys of the upper reaches of the river Kali, in the 1870s. A map of 1879 vintage shows the whole Kalapani area as part of India .

For the first time on May 13 Nepal deployed 25 soldiers of Armed Police Force (APF) near Kalapani at Chhangru and they are regularly patrolling the area.

Nepal strongly refuted Indian army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane’s comment that Nepal might be protesting on behest of someone else. He made it clear that there is no dispute on the land hence the reason of the protest of Nepal is difficult to comprehend. Nepalese Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali mentioned that Nepal will never accept the intrusion of any other country in the internal matter of Nepal. The Himalayan Kingdom has friendly relations with both China and India, but it follows a non-aligned foreign policy.

At present Prime Minister Oli is facing trouble from Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda as several important leaders of the Communist Party are supporting Prachanda. Oli has support of China and its intelligence agency Ministry of State Security (MSS) which is very active in Nepal is also clandestinely supporting Oli. The construction and inauguration of road is being exploited by opposition parties as well as by Prachanda. On the other hand, Oli is also using the issue of new road construction to enhance anti-India feelings.

On 18 May China made it clear that “Kalapani is an issue between Nepal and India” but facts indicate that Nepal raised this issue on behest of China. Lipulekh Pass in Kalapani is strategically important as India keeps a watch on Chinese movements from here. The Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) maintains a post at Kalapani. China is creating tension between India and Nepal as at present the relations between China and Nepal are very cordial. Oli is also trying to benefit from rising anti-India sentiments.

The present road is a result of an agreement between India and China in 2015 as it was decided to develop border post of Lipulekh Pass into a trading post between China and India. Hence China’s instigation to Nepal is with malafide intentions. Before Nepal China also instigated Pakistan against India and on 30 April Pakistan Supreme Court passed a judgement that the government can hold elections in Gilgit & Baltistan. Both are parts of Kashmir and are under illegal occupation of Pakistan.

The relations between China and Nepal are becoming stronger. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Nepal in October 2019. It was the first visit by a Chinese head of state in 23 years. China wants Nepal to become an important participant in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese Ambassador to Nepal had several meetings with the leaders of different factions of Communist Party of Nepal so that Oli’s government continues. At present Oli’s government is much closer to China than India.

Prime Minister Modi’s policy of ‘Neighbourhood First’ was a welcomed initiative but the progress on the initiative could not produce desired results. China has deep pockets and it extended loan and financial assistance for construction of huge infrastructure projects to several countries. The policy was also not very successful because of inflexible policies of Indian bureaucrats. The present Kalapani dispute clearly indicates that India has to be careful while dealing with Nepal as it is working on behest of China and against the interests of India.

There is a strong anti-India lobby in Nepal which is financed and abetted by MSS of China and Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan. Hence India should also try to inculcate a formal channel of communications where impartial Nepalese can bring all issues together and convince masses about the assistance rendered by India.

At present China is facing anger of several countries because of inconsiderate handling of COVID-19 disease. Numerous companies are trying to windup there business from China while few countries have reduced their purchases. President Trump is also repeatedly issuing statements against China and trade issues between both the countries are not solved. Several countries are also feeling threatened because of Chinese actions in South China Sea. U.S. is extending defence cooperation to Taiwan, Vietnam and India which is not liked by China.

There were border skirmishes between Indian and Chinese troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Indian and Chinese troops first fought in eastern Ladakh near Pangong Lake on 5 May. Again, on 9 May troops of both the countries clashed at north Sikkim. Several soldiers of both sides were injured in these clashes. The possibility that China may go for few more clashes with India to distract world attention is not ruled out.

And amidst all this Nepal has understood which side of its bread will remain buttered. It has concluded that pleasing big brother China by creating territorial lockhorns with India will be both an international and a domestic card well played.

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Home » Spotlight » China Irked Over Nepal’s Refusal To Sign Extradition Treaty : Also Warned India

China Irked Over Nepal’s Refusal To Sign Extradition Treaty : Also Warned India

· Honeymoon between China & Nepal on shaky grounds

By JK Verma

The hand shake not so strong

New Delhi. 16 October 2019. Both Chinese as well as Nepalese media projected that the Chinese President’s two days visit to Nepal which came after 23 years was a grand success. The previous visit was made by President Jiang Zemin in 1996. The analysts claim that Chinese President had not visited Nepal as China was waiting for a strong government in the Himalayan kingdom turned democracy. In last few decades there were repeated changes in the government and there was no political stability in the country.

The media and the foreign offices of both the countries highlighted that visiting Chinese President assured to invest $500 million in developmental and infrastructure projects in the next two years. Both the countries have also signed 20 agreements including 18 MoUs and two letters of exchange to augment the bilateral relations between both the countries. These agreements covered various sectors including agriculture, commerce, industry and transport.

Xi Jinping reached Nepal on 12 October on a two-day state visit where he was received by President Bidya Devi Bhandari and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli at the Kathmandu airport. Xi during his sojourn in Nepal met Nepalese President as well as the Prime Minister. Xi Jinping promised to improve the Arniko Highway which links Kathmandu with Tatopani transit point at Nepal-China border. The Tatopani transit point was closed for four years because of catastrophic earthquakes of 2015 and recurrent flooding of Bhotekoshi River. It is an important transit point as Nepal was importing goods worth Rs.20 billion and was exporting goods worth Rs.3 billion through Tatopaani check post. Nepal was earning revenue approximately of Rs.5 billion through the import and export from this post. Earlier China was disinclined to reopen the transit point due to security reasons although Nepal repeatedly requested to open Tatopani transit point.

Xi also promised that very soon a study would be conducted to assess the viability of trans-Himalayan railway and China will assist in the construction of Kerung-Kathmandu tunnel road. Chinese president also mentioned that there is no issue between China and Nepal and their friendship is a model friendship. Xi further mentioned that “We want to support Nepal in realising its dream to become a land-linked country from the landlocked country.” Xi also promised to help Nepal in education and in urban development areas. Nepalese president stated that Nepal adheres to “one-China policy” and nobody will be allowed to work against the interests of China from Nepalese soil. The Nepalese President gave a stern warning to Tibetans.

However, the analysts claim that all was not well during Chinese President’s visit to Nepal. First of all, the Himalayan Kingdom declined to sign the extradition treaty with China and in its place Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal matters was inked. Nepal understood that China is insisting on extradition treaty as it would be used against Tibetans residing in Nepal. At present about 20,000 Tibetans live in Nepal. According to a rough estimate about 2,500 Tibetans illegally pass through Nepal every year and visit Dharamshala in India to pay respects to 84-year-old Dalai Lama. Nepal shares a long border with Tibet, and both have close relations. Nepal also feared that extradition treaty will infringe its sovereignty and will not be liked by India. Nepal also expected that a wide section of Nepalese have close relations with Tibet, and they will resist their deportation to China.

Nepal also avoided signing defence agreement and an accord on construction of border roads. China also wanted to allow Nepal access to more Chinese ports with special conditions, but Nepal had not signed those agreements too. Nepal has also refused to accept Chinese proposal of construction of National Defence University (NDU) similar to the National Defence College (NDC) of India. NDC is the topmost institution of strategic learning for officers of Indian Armed Forces and the Civil Services of India. Although Nepal cited the reason of refusal of Chinese assistance as local resentment, but analysts feel that Nepal is becoming apprehensive of Chinese assistance as both countries were negotiating about the establishment of NDU till few days before the visit of Xi Jinping. Nepal has also refused to accept Chinese assistance in construction of new Parliament building as Nepal and India are also negotiating on the construction of Parliament building. India and Nepal already signed extradition treaty in 1953 however India wants the revision of the treaty but both countries failed to revise the treaty due to differences.

Nepal averted signing these accords as resentment is growing in Nepal against China. In recent past there were several anti-Chinese demonstrations, as Nepalese are realising that Chinese are exploiting them. Recently few cases of frauds committed by Chinese also came to limelight. Nepalese are also understanding that Chinese do not allow to float international tenders and all works have to be assigned to Chinese companies. These Chinese companies take contracts on higher rates and give loan on high interest rates. No employment is generated as Chinese companies bring all construction material from China and provide employment to Chinese people only.

Xi also assured that it will safeguard Nepal’s national independence, sovereignty and integrity. The statement indicates that China wants to swap India, but the Nepalese defence personnel appears to be more comfortable with India hence Nepalese had not given any positive response to Chinese offer.

Chinese president also met Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and Nepal Communist Party co-chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda.

President Xi also gave a stern message that anyone who tries to “split” China will be “crushed”. The analysts claim that the warning is for Tibetans and to India as China always alleges that India is supporting Tibetans who are creating trouble in Tibet. China also gave a veiled message to India that China is a global power and India should review its relations with China. The warning was also to the protesters in Hongkong as well as the forces abetting protesters overtly or covertly.

Pakistan which considers India as its enemy number one is whole heartedly supporting China. Prime Minister Imran Khan visited China just before Chinese President’s two-day visit to India and briefed him about Kashmir issue. China had also reversed its viewpoint about Kashmir during the visit of Imran Khan. China stopped making reference of UN Security Council resolution once Xi’s visit to India was announced but in the joint communique issued after the visit of Imran Khan again mentioned UNSC resolution over Kashmir. Although India raised a strong protest but not cancelled the informal summit.

On the other hand, Nepal takes help from China and wants to reduce its dependence on India but because of geographical compulsions India remains its biggest trading partner and Nepal remains dependent on India for many things. China which has deep pockets allure Nepal by promising heavy investments in developing infrastructure in Nepal.

China which considers India as its potential rival will continue encircling India and pricking it as and when required. China will also continue winning over India’s neighbour and as it has surplus funds it is investing in developing the infrastructure in the neighbouring countries. China is pressing Nepal for extending bigger collaboration in Belt and Road Initiative. China plans to connect Lhasa (Tibet) with Kathmandu and from Kathmandu to Lumbini near Indo-Nepal border. In this way China wants to press India to join BRI because without India joining BRI China is unable to achieve its object. At present China is much more powerful than India militarily as well as economically hence India should try to keep the dragon in good humour and make sincere efforts to strengthen itself.

· AAKROSH

· ASIAN JOURNAL ON TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS

· January 2019 Volume 22 Number 82

· SINO- NEPAL RELATIONS : WORRY FOR INDIA

· China which has deep pockets has put massive investment in Nepal with ulterior motive of distancing it with India and keeping the Himalayan kingdom under its influence. The communist regime of Nepal is ideologically close to China and Prime Minister Oli is pro-Chinese. He won 2018 elections on anti-India rhetoric. Although keeping the old tradition, after taking over as prime minister, he paid first three day visit to India but later paid six day visit to China and signed several important agreements. Nepal is also part of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is an important strategic project under which China provides loan for developing infrastructure in economically weaker countries and when these countries fail to repay the debt China takes over strategic installations. Sri Lanka had to lease out Hambantota port on ninety-nine years lease. Nepali media, anti-Indian forces, and powerful Chinese intelligence agency MSS launched a disinformation campaign and alleged that economic blockade of 2015 was the handiwork of Indian government. Prime Minister Modi visited thrice to Nepal within four years and started “Ramayana Circuit”. Although India should stress on religious ties but must caution Nepal that China is an expansionist country and pursuing the policy of “debt-trap diplomacy”. India should make sincere efforts to complete the projects within the stipulated time. Delhi should also make it clear that it does not want to dictate terms to Nepal and it is a malicious propaganda that secular India wants Nepal to be a Hindu nation.

· The budding Sino-Nepal relations and increasing commercial, economic and political dealings are cause of concern for India. Beijing has put in excess of $ 8 billion in the Himalayan Kingdom and emerged as the uppermost investor in the country. Nepal has agreed to join Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is a dream project of President Xi Jinping. Although China projected BRI as an economic venture but it is a strategic project, which will give Beijing a leverage to control its small neighbours. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is an important segment of BRI, passes through Pakistan Occoupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit and Baltistan, hence India refused to be part of BRI, but Kathmandu without caring the sentiments of India agreed to join BRI. (1)

· Nepal Army personnel also participated in the second edition of ‘Mt. Everest Friendship Exercise’ at Sichuan province of China. The 12 day exercise commenced from September 17 and twelve military personnel of Nepalese Armed Forces participated in the exercise. The joint military exercise between Nepal and China was mainly focused on terrorism and disaster management. The first exercise between Nepalese Armed Forces and People’s Liberation Army was held in April 2017. The armed forces of India and Nepal are conducting joint military exercise namely Surya Kiran from last 13 years in which more than 300 armed personnel participate. The last, fourteen day, Surya Kiran exercise was conducted in Pithoragarh (India) from June 13, 2018. The focal point of the joint military exercise is counter terrorism and it increases perception and interoperability between Indian and Nepalese armies. Although the joint military exercise between Indian and Nepalese armies are at much larger scale but starting of the military exercise between armed forces of Nepal and China is also a cause of concern for India. (2)

· The anti-India and pro-China lobby especially the people of hilly region propagate that India treats Nepal as a subordinate state and when they go to India for work they are ill-treated and exploited. Unfortunately the migrant workers do not feel thankful that although they are not technically qualified and there is lots of unemployment in India they get some job, which is not available in their motherland.

· History of Sino-Nepal Relations

· The Sino-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship was signed in April1960. In the early stages, Nepal was not very keen to inculcate strong ties with China, as it realised that it will not be liked by India and secondly Communist China is an expansionist country. Nonetheless both the countries resolved all border disputes and on March 21, 1960 Sino-Nepal boundary agreement was inked. Both the countries approved the border agreement on October 5, 1961. The relations between China and Nepal considerably strengthened after 1975 as Beijing invested in the infrastructural development of Himalayan kingdom. Although more than one million Nepalese work in India and remit large amount of money to their motherland while less than 4000 Nepalese work in Mainland China but large number of Nepalese perform menial jobs in India hence they do not have good opinion about the country which gave them employment. (3)

· Nepal restored diplomatic relations with China in 1955 and ambassadors of both the countries were exchanged in 1960 and in 1956 Nepal and China signed a new treaty and Kathmandu accepted Tibet as part of China. In 1961 both countries agreed to connect Tibet with Kathmandu through an all weather road. In 1962 Nepal remained neutral during India-China war. In 1980 when India refused to supply arms to King Gyanendra, who wanted to control Maoists, he approached China which readily grabbed the opportunity and supplied much needed weaponry to Nepal. Although Maoists and Chinese have same ideology but Beijing gave more importance to national interests then the ideology. In this way China earned the goodwill of King Gyanendra while India lost the opportunity of curbing Maoists, who are ideologically opposed to democratic India. In 2008 when Maoists came to power they threatened to discard the 1950 treaty with India. Nepal and China signed a transit trade treaty and nine other accords in March 2016.

· Massive Chinese investment in the land-locked country

· China-Nepal Business Development had a forum at Beijing on December 17, 2018. In the meeting, Nishchal Pandey Director of the Center for South Asian Studies based in Kathmandu mentioned that the main concern of Nepal government is “How to attract Chinese investment? Leela Mani Paudyal Nepalese Ambassador in China welcomed Chinese investment in Nepal and also stated that the main Chinese investment is in the fields of infrastructure development, water, power and mining. While appreciating Chinese technology and business management, he accepted that big Chinese companies like ZTE Corporation, which is a multinational telecommunications equipments and Systems Company, China Gezhouba Group companies and Huawei have already invested in Nepal but several other Chinese companies are also showing interest in investing in the country. The president of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation (AITEC) Gu Xueming emphatically stated that Chinese companies are playing a pivotal role in contract market in Nepal. AITEC works under Ministry of Commerce hence, he gave latest figures of Chinese investments in Nepal. He mentioned that since 2013, Chinese companies signed about 229 contracts worth $3.32 billion including Hetauda-Narayanghat-Mugling-Kathmandu Highway. It is the main Highway, which connects Kathmandu with its southern cities. The approximate length of the highway is 227 KMs and it has many tunnels. The total expenditure is expected to be $590 million. The project would also cover transportation, water conservation, power utilities and communications. Lhasa-Xigaze-Gyirong railway is also significant for the economic development of Nepal, as it will bring large number of tourists to the land-locked country. Nepalese want the rail link to be extended up to Kathmandu. (4)

· China had invested more than USD 39 million which is 87 percent foreign direct investment (FDI) from October 2017 to July 2018. Few portions of Kathmandu’s eight-lane ring road were constructed while at few places the ring-road was widened by the Chinese companies.

· China is financing hydroelectric dams, as well as a cement factory with an investment of $131 million. China also built police Headquarters in Kathmandu. Beijing also agreed to purchase Pashmina Shawals from Nepal. China is active in all spheres of Nepalese life that includes construction of multiple infrastructure projects as well as selling of children toys and books. (5)

· China which has deep pockets gave loans to poverty-ridden Nepal which is in dire need of infrastructure projects. China became leading investor in Nepal in 2014 leaving India behind. In 2017 China assured to invest $ 8.3 billion, while Indian companies pledged merely $317 million. Umpteen numbers of Nepalese are learning Chinese language and several institutes teaching Chinese language have emerged in the country. The numbers of Chinese tourists have increased manifold. Previously most of Nepalese students were coming to India, but now more students are going to China. Large numbers of Chinese businessmen are present in Nepal and Chinese internet companies are snatching business from Indian business houses. Nepalese defence service personnel are also going to China for training.

· Nepal-China transit agreement

· In 2015-16 the cargo movement from India to Nepal was limited because of Madhesi movement, nonetheless it not only increased the hardships of the common masses but it also reduced the exports and imports of the country considerably. There was acute shortage of essential items especially petroleum products, which raised the public outcry to reduce Nepal’s dependence on India. Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, who is ideologically close to communist China took advantage of the anti-India sentiments, finalised Transit Transport Agreement (TTA) with China on September 7, 2018. According to the terms of agreement, China authorized Nepal to use four sea ports at Lianyungang, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Tianjin and three land ports at Lhasa, Xigatse, and Lanzhou for trade with other countries. The TTA permitted Nepali traders to use Nepali trucks for ferrying Nepalese goods from agreed Chinese ports to Nepal and vice -versa.(6)

· The TTA was signed by Oli in his China’s visit in March 2016 but it took more than two years to sort out finer details. China delayed in sorting out the details as it wanted to force Nepal to sign Memorandum of Understanding on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with the stipulation that Nepal will agree to construct all the infrastructure projects under BRI. Secondly Nepal requested to lengthen Tibetan railways up to Kathmandu but China felt that extending the railway line from Kyirong (China) to Kathmandu is economically not viable unless India also joins it for exporting its goods to South Asian countries. Thirdly China was not ready to give all the seaports and land ports demanded by Nepal. China was also assessing the security issues, points of entry and exit, types of transportation etc. China was also averse of the idea of opening of Tatopani check post for trade as Tibetan refugees enter Nepal from Tatopani and in 2008 Tibetans held a huge protest there. Several NGOs are also working in Tatopani area, while US has trained Peace Corps workers there to work in Pokhara. (6)

· China extended several favours to Nepal after India and United States signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in September 2018. The COMCASA is vital for India, as after the agreement India can buy sensitive defence armaments from USA. Washington also declared India ‘major defence partner’ in 2016. Nepal also refused to participate in the India-proposed military exercise of The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) countries.

· The analysts claim that although there are several drawbacks in TTA, but it gave a big moral boosting to Oli and his party. It will also give leverage to Oli, while negotiating with India; nonetheless there are several practical problems in TTA. Firstly the northern route is unfit for carrying voluminous articles because of hilly region. Secondly landslides are a common feature which hampers the smooth flow of traffic. Thirdly Lanzhou-Kyirong-Kathmandu (LKM) provides Nepalese businessmen entrance to western zone, while Nepal businessmen purchase articles from China’s south eastern cities. Although China signed TTA as it wanted to score points on India but it does not want that the route which passes through Tibet is frequently used. (6)

· Nepal Tibet relations

· The border between Nepal and China is approximately 1,414 kilometers which passes through the mountain range of Himalaya including Tibet Autonomous Region. There are ancient relations between Nepal and Tibet and Sherpas, Gurungs and Thakalis have marital, cultural and linguistic ties on both sides of the border. However the ties between Tibet and Nepal restricted after annexation of Tibet by China in 1950. China wanted full peace and control in Tibet as sometimes rebel Tibetans resort to terrorist activities. In 1959 large number of Tibetans took shelter in Nepal as the revolt against repressive policies and merger of Tibet failed. Tibetans were constantly migrating into Nepal and in 2008 the number swelled to 128,000. However Nepal under pressure from China started ill-treating Tibetans and now the refugees have reduced to about 20,000. Nepal does not give citizenship to Tibetans and they are not allowed to work in the country. If any Tibetan is caught near the border he is forcibly deported to Tibet. The oppression of Nepalese authorities on Tibetans is increasing as the influence of China is enhancing. Nepalese authorities do not allow even peaceful anti-China, pro-Tibetan protests in Nepal. The Nepalese police not only snatch the posters but also beat the silent Tibetan protesters. Tibetan refugees mention that they are treated as second class residents and lack basic human rights in Nepal. In view of escalating Chinese investment and its influence in Nepal, the Tibetan refugees want to migrate into India. However China is pressurising Nepal not to allow Tibetan refugees to immigrate to India as Beijing alleges that India uses Tibetan refugees against China. (7)

· Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is closer to China

· Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, is one out of two chairmen of the Nepal Communist Party, is ideologically close to Communist China. Although he projected himself as a nationalist but he won the elections, which were held on 26 November and 7 December 2017 to elect 275 members of the House of Representatives of the Federal Parliament, by anti-India rhetoric. He promised during elections to inculcate more friendly relations with China. Although following the tradition he paid first foreign visit to India, which was for three day, but paid six day visit to China and signed several significant agreements during his Chinese visit.

· Oli government is offering, special privileges and facilities to Chinese companies, so that they invest in the country. Nepal gives 100 percent corporate income tax exemption for first 10 years and then 50 percent exemption for next five years. There are special incentives for investing in energy and tourism sectors.

· Prime Minister Oli had reinstated the contract of $2.5 billion of China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) annulled by the previous government. The CGGC was constructing Nepal’s largest hydro Budhi-Gandaki plant, which would produce 1,200 megawatt of electricity; it would double country’s hydropower production. The main opposition Nepali Congress Party criticised government for awarding such a big contract to a Chinese firm after flouting the procedure and without competitive bidding, hence it is objectionable as it is against the national interest. Nepali Congress also demanded that Budhi Gandaki project should be constructed through domestic investments. Nepal and China want to enhance connectivity between both the countries with different motives. Nepal wants to mitigate Indian influence while China wants to reach India through Nepal. (8)

· Oli became prime minister first time in October, 2015 when Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal and about 13 other smaller political parties supported him. However during his tenure he had to face the blockade by forces opposing the constitution. Oli’s government had also fallen in July 2016 as Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) withdrew support. Besides CPN (M-C) other parties including Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum and Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal also withdrew support. Oli took advantage of the situation and alleged that Indian government was behind the withdrawal of support by political parties. His government fell before the visit of Chinese president Xi Jinping. Oli cancelled the planned visit of Nepali president to India and also recalled Nepali Ambassador from Delhi. Both are quite stringent measures taken by Nepal government, keeping its close relations with India.

· Oli very intelligently exploited anti-India sentiments during Legislative elections held in 2017. He claimed that he resisted the illegal pressure of India, developed close relationship with China and saved Nepali honour. His tactic paid dividend and his party Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) won 121 seats while CPN (Maoist Centre) won 53 seats, out of 275 seats in the parliament. After elections both these parties merged and a new party Communist Party of Nepal was constituted. The new party has two-third majority in Nepali parliament. The intelligence sources claim that both the parties had several differences but they had to merge because of pressure from Chinese intelligence agency, The Ministry of State Security (MSS). MSS is very active in the neighbouring countries and helped Oli and his party to win the elections. MSS rendered financial assistance as well as helped in arousing anti-India feelings. India was blamed for economic blockade while China was appreciated for sending the necessary items during the blockade.

· Oli’s China Visit

· After India’s three day visit, Oli paid a six-day official visit to China from June 19-24. After completion of his visit he briefed the Nepali parliament and mentioned that the object of his visit was to seek China’s assistance in the economic progress of the country. He mentioned that now the country will implement the previous agreements expeditiously and will take Nepal China relations to new heights. He stated that during the visit, he met President Xi Jinping, his counterpart Li Keqiang Premier of the State Council, who is an economist by trade. Besides them he also met several other dignitaries of China and Tibet. Oli told that agreements were signed about railways, expansion of road network, and about the strengthening of communication system. He claimed that construction of Keyrong-Kathmandu railway will be a landmark on Nepal-China relations. China will also give economical and technological assistance in production of agricultural goods. China will support Nepal in the Development of Human Resources and will increase scholarships to Nepali students. Nepal will also open General Consulates in different cities of China. (9)

· Several important agreements were signed between government and private companies of both the countries in the fields of Hydropower, cement and about establishment of highland food parks for multiple fruits and vegetables. The Chinese firm agreed to invest $130 million which will produce 3,000 metric tonnes of cement every day. A study will be made on Biring, Kamala and Kankai rivers so that the irrigation system can be improved. Several hydropower projects would be developed on the basis of build, own, operate and transfer (BOOT). Oli asserted that the visit was very successful and it took Nepal China relations to new heights. (10)

· Salient features of Oli’s visit to India

· Prime Minister Oli, who missed no chance in his previous tenure to undermine India, had not broken the tradition and after taking over as Prime Minister, he paid first foreign visit to India, albeit a three day official tour, which commenced from 6^th April, 2018. Oli has become very powerful in his second term as the Left Alliance has two third majority. In view of Nepal’s growing proximity with China and his support in parliament, India accorded ceremonial welcome to Oli and Home Minister Rajnath Singh, received him at the airport. After completion of the visit, Oli told to press at Tribhuvan International Airport that the discussions with Indian leaders were ‘cordial and positive’ and the visit has ‘further strengthened’ the friendly relations. During the visit, both sides decided to develop inland waterways and build a rail line connecting Raxaul (Bihar-India) to Kathmandu. The inland waterways can play a significant role in the economic development of the region as cargo can be transported by waterways at much cheaper cost. Both the prime ministers also inaugurated Integrated Check Post at Birgunj in Nepal. They also put the inauguration stone of Motihari-Amlekhgunj petroleum products pipeline at Motihari. Both the leaders asserted that India and Nepal have close Defence and Security relationship and it is further strengthened. They also reiterated that they will not allow the misuse of open border. Oli besides requesting for more investments also pointed out about the massive trade imbalance which is very harmful for the economy of Nepal. (15)

· After the visit of Nepalese Prime Minister, Modi also visited Nepal in May and during the visit both the prime ministers laid foundation stone of Arun III hydropower plant, which will cost $ 1.4. Billion and will be a turning point for energy starved Nepal. It is one of the five jumbo hydropower project, out of these five two are constructed by China. Arun III is a big project hence it will generate lot of direct as well as indirect employment opportunities for the Nepalese. Nepal has lot of water and can build several hydropower projects, at present Nepal is using only two percent of its capacity.

· 2015 blockade and its repercussions

· The alleged economic blockade by India commenced from 23^rd September, 2015, which critically affected the economy of the landlocked country. Nepali media, anti-Indian forces and Chinese stooges alleged that the blockade was the handiwork of Indian government, although India made it clear that it has no role in the blockade and it was caused inside Nepal because of the protests by Madheshis. The anti-India forces also alleged that Indian security forces were also imposing the blockade. Nepal being a land locked country is dependent on the supply of several essential items including petroleum products, medicines etc. on India.

· Madheshis demand Madheshi state while Tharu and Kiranti, two other ethnic groups were also demanding more autonomy, all three groups enforced the blockade albeit for different reasons. Besides ethnic rivalry there were also political reasons, which aggravated the blockade. Two powerful leaders of Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai and Party president Pushpa Kamal Dahal @ Prachanda were fighting with each other. The Nepali Congress was also under tremendous pressure. The UCPN (M) cracked and K P Sharma Oli became the prime minister. (11)

· The long awaited constitution was passed on 20 September, 2015 and massive protests broke out which took lives of more than 40 persons including eight policemen. Madheshis and Tharus both reside near India- Nepal borders and they were protesting as they mentioned that the new constitution has marginalised them. Meanwhile the press reported that India is not happy with few provisions of the constitution and urged Nepal government to make few amendments. The powerful Chinese intelligence agency MSS launched a disinformation campaign in the country and communist leaders alleged that Sashtra Seema Bal (SSB), which guards India Nepal border was stopping the shipment of petroleum products to Nepal. Pro-Chinese elements claimed that Indians have joined Madheshis and were fomenting the trouble, although Madheshi leaders refuted the allegation. Madheshis have strong socio-cultural links with residents of Indian states of Bihar and Utter Pradesh. Meanwhile a small number of self styled Indian leaders/writers linked the protests with Bihar elections. Anti-India lobby in Nepal exploited these statements.

· In 1989 also India closed 19 out of 21 border crossings when a dispute arose on trade and transit treaties. These blockades generated lot of anti-India feelings and anti-India lobby pressed hard for minimizing the dependence on India. They demanded that Nepal should incline more towards its other neighbour i.e. China.

· The blockade resulted in acute shortage of petroleum products which raised smuggling of POL products from India. Nepal signed an agreement with China to bring POL but because of difficult terrain POL could not be brought. China donated 1.3 million liters of petrol to Nepal.

· India requested Nepal to end Madheshi crisis as the protesters were not allowing Indian trucks to enter Nepal. The India baiters wanted to internationalise the issue as they alleged that India has flouted the stipulations of the treaty as well as the international laws. India made it clear that there was no blockade from Indian side but because of the protests, Indian truck owners and drivers were reluctant to go inside the country. Indian Foreign Minister as well as Ministry of External Affairs Spokesman made it clear that there is no restriction from India. The leaders of Madheshi Parties including Nepal Sadbhawana Party condemned Nepali media for charging India for blockade.

· It was a severe blow to the economy of Nepal as tourism, construction industry, factories all suffered heavily. Nepalese residing in foreign countries including United States and Europe made protests against assumed high handedness of India.

· Oli took advantage of anti-India sentiments and visited China and signed several accords including transit agreement under which Nepalese can use Chinese ports.

· Prime Minister Modi’s visits to Nepal

· Prime Minister Modi since beginning pursued the policy of “neighbourhood first”, paid three visits to Nepal within a short span of four years out of this two were state visits, while one was to attend the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Kathmandu.

· Modi started his third visit from Janakpur, which is the birthplace of Sita, and Muktinath temple. In the visit Modi tried to win over the love and affection of Hindu majority which became anti-India due to the blockade. Modi also started “Ramayana Circuit” under which bus service started between Janakpur to Ayodhya. Government of India promised to develop 15 destinations all over India under Ramayana Circuit. These 15 areas are in different provinces, including Utter Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Telangana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. It is expected that Ramayana Circuit would increase religious tourism which would create employment. Modi also sanctioned Rs.100 crore to develop Janakpur. (16)

· It was also decided by both the countries that long-awaited Arun-III hydropower project will also be started. A faction of The Communist Party of Nepal, which opposes giving of any major project to India, also tried to blast the site, by putting a crude bomb. India promised to assist by providing $ 1.5 billion, which is more than the expected cost. India also promised to build a railway line between Raxaul and Kathmandu. (12)

· The MSS instigated pro-Chinese elements and they organised few protests against Modi and asked for the apology about the economic blockade of 2015. Two bomb blasts also occurred on 29 April in Arun III hydropower project area although the preparations were going on to lay down the foundation stone of the hydropower project by prime minister Modi on May 11, 2018. Modi in his visits stressed more on people to people contact, religious and cultural ties, as China is much ahead of India in the investments in Nepal.

·
Way Forward

· India, while stressing on the old religious and cultural ties between both the countries, should stress that China is an expansionist country and Chinese companies do not allow international bidding for the contracts. All the contracts are taken by the Chinese companies on much higher rates, for example the estimated cost of construction of Pokhara Airport was $140 million but Chinese company is charging $216 million. Not only this, Chinese companies bring most of the construction material and large number of labour force, hence Chinese projects generates very little direct or indirect employment. According to intelligence reports, Chinese companies give the extra amount to the Chinese intelligence agency MSS, which uses it in bribing the politicians and procuring the contracts for Chinese firms. Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as Prachanda awarded contract of construction of dam on Budhi Gandaki River in last days of his prime minister ship after being pressurised by MSS. (16 &14)

· India should also emphasise that China is pursuing the policy of “debt-trap diplomacy”. It offers infrastructure loans with intricate clauses and when smaller economies are unable to repay the loan and interests, Chinese occupy the strategic projects. Sri Lanka lost Hambantota. According to Centre for Global Development, a nonprofit think tank based in Washington DC and makes independent research and gives practical ideas for Global prosperity mentioned in a report that eight countries including Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, Pakistan, and Tajikistan are vulnerable as they took part in China’s BRI. Nepal should be cautious so that it also does not have to surrender some territory to China or has to full-fill unreasonable demands. (13)

· Mostly Indian projects are delayed in Nepal while Chinese projects meet their targets. As both India and China are competing on same type of infrastructure projects, the comparison between both the countries become more apparent and China is far ahead in meeting the deadlines in comparison to India. Modi in his first visit assured that Indian projects will also meet the deadlines but regrettably no meaningful progress achieved and projects continued to be delayed. Hydropower project at Mahakali River or road constructed in southern Nepal are all legging behind the schedule. Indian government should try to clear the bottlenecks and the projects must finish within the stipulated time. The delay inflates the cost of projects and also enhances the problems of the masses and lastly it gives bad name to the country.

· Beijing, which considers Delhi as its potential adversary, is encircling India. It already compelled Sri Lanka to give Hambantota on 99 years lease. Pakistan is passing through a disastrous economic phase, has already surrendered Gwadar Port and it is expected that China will occupy arable land and mineral resources of Gilgit and Baltistan and is also eyeing on unexploited minerals of Balochistan. China not only signed Free Trade Agreement with archipelago Maldives but also occupied its two islands. China has also special status in Chittagong Port of Bangladesh. China is also investing in Afghanistan albeit with India. Hence India should be careful that Nepal also does not fall in the lap of China.

· India should counter the propaganda of anti-India lobby that India wants to dictate Nepal, hence it objected the promulgation of Nepalese constitution in 2015. India should also clarify that India has no intention to interfere in the internal matters of the country and it is a false allegation that India or its ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wants Nepal to be a Hindu nation. Firstly India itself is a secular country and secondly in past when Nepal was a Hindu nation India wanted it to be a secular country. (14)

· Anti-India lobby also proliferated that India is pressing for a separate state for Madhesis in the areas abutting India. Nepal considered it as a threat to the security as at a later stage they may demand a separate country. India must make it clear that they have no ill-designs about the country and it does not interfere in the internal affairs of Nepal.

· Nepal has agreed to become the part of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China will invest heavily in Nepal on infrastructure projects which Nepal due to its poor economic condition will not able to undertake. India also cannot replace China as it also lacks resources hence India should try to persuade Oli that in the national interest Kathmandu must be careful about malafide intentions of their northern neighbour. (14)

· Traditionally Nepal has close ties with India, because of religious and cultural affinity and open borders. Nepal is also dependent on India for several things including trade and financial activities. Now Oli government is leaning towards another neighbour China and signed several agreements but there are several hurdles in implementing these accords due to Himalayan terrain. India should also try to be helpful to Nepal so that its leaning towards China can be restrained. India baiters are pleading that Nepal should lessen its dependence on India although they realise the difficulties but firstly they get favourable response from ignorant masses and secondly they pressurise India also.

· The relations between India and China also affect China Nepal tie-ups. India-China relations became tense after 73 days standoff at Doklam but after meeting between Modi and Xi at Wuhan and subsequent sessions the relations between both the countries have normalized ostensibly. Nevertheless both counties are cautious about each other as they have border disputes and have divergent strategic interests. (14)

· India should realise that the present communist regime in Nepal is ideologically close to China; hence India must take advantages of its geographical position and should also enhance its assistance to Nepal. India’s promise of linking Kathmandu from Raxaul through rail link and assistance in constructing hydropower plant Arun III are good gestures.

· Indian policy planners should also not consider that growing Nepal-China relations are against India and China will be allowed to use Nepalese territory against India. In 1962 war between India and China, Kathmandu remained neutral. Nepalese claim that it is a land-locked country and wants to progress after taking assistance from both the neighbours. However Nepal is heavily leaning towards China because of Oli’s ideological leanings, India’s inadequate resources to assist and China’s ulterior motive to give loan and later occupy the strategic areas. Nevertheless it appears that China is succeeding because Nepal which had age old relations with India because of proximity, open borders is talking about parity of relations between India and China.

· Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) had requested Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in first week of January that RBI to issue a notification under Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) that Indian currency notes higher than Rs.100 would be legal tender in Nepal. Before denomination Indian currency notes of Rs.500 and Rs.1000 were valid in Nepal. However after the issue of new notes RBI had not issued the notification. As there is lot of trade between both the countries, Nepali citizens keep higher denomination Indian currency with them. However in the same letter NRB requested Indian government to provide exchange facility of banned Indian currency notes of Rs.500 and Rs.1000. According to Nepal authorities they are keeping Indian currency notes of about Rs.48 million. Government of India should issue notification mentioning that new currency notes above Rs.100 denominations are also valid in Nepal as it may adversely affect the bilateral trade, tourism between both the countries and large Nepali force working in India. However the decision on banned currency can be taken on merit. (17)

· However Nepal’s 90 percent trade is with India and the approach to Indian cities and ports are much easy in comparison to China’s ports. China wants to develop rail connection with India through Nepal as Indian market is much bigger. Kathmandu understands that Beijing is investing heavily in developing connectivity with Nepal as it wants to reach India through Nepal. Beijing may inculcate best of relations with Nepal but it will not be at the cost of India. Besides developing railway, China is also constructing three roads to connect Nepal and also trying to trade electricity between Nepal and China.

· Nepal should learn from the experience of Sri Lanka strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa who became anti-India during civil war. After crushing The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), Rajapaksa wanted huge investments to build the devastated country. As he had strained relations with India, he leaned heavily towards Beijing. China’s investments and loan helped Rajapaksa to disentangle from India but ultimately Sri Lanka failed to repay the loan and had to surrender Hambantota Port and in future China may occupy more strategic areas.

· The Notes and Reference

· 1. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan: Should Rising China-Nepal Military Ties Worry India? The Diplomat dated 20^th August, 2018.

· 2. Second Nepal-China Joint military drill in Sichuan from Monday: The New Indian Express dated 27.12.2018.

· 3. Wikipedia : China–Nepal relations

· 4. Guo Yuandan: Nepal expects more Chinese investment in infrastructure to boost development; Global Times dated 24.12.2018

· 5. Stephen Starr: China moves to bring Nepal into its sphere of influence; The Irish Times dated 13.10.2018

· 6. Nihar Nayak: Nepal-China Transit Agreement: An Evaluation; Institute for Defence studies and Analyses

· 7. Emily Walker: China’s influence in Nepal endangers Tibetan refugees : Mew Internationalist 11.01.2016

· 8. Nepal reinstates $2.5b hydropower deal with Chinese firm: dated 24.09.2018 Global Times

· 9. China visit successful: PM Oli; The Himalayan Times June 26, 2018

· 10. China, Nepal ink 8 pacts in major infrastructure projects; Press Trust of India, June 20, 2018 https://www.indiatoday.in/

· 11. Wikipedia: 2015 Nepal Blockade

· 12. Pramod Jaisawal: Opinion: Modi’s ‘historic’ Nepal visit was aimed more at his Indian constituency than bilateral ties” Scroll.in May 18, 2019

· 13. Tim Fernholz: Eight countries in danger of falling into “China’s debt trap” Quartz March 8, 2018

· 14. Debasish Roy Chowdhury: Driven by India into China’s arms, is Nepal the new Sri Lanka? South China Morning Post 25.02.2018

· 15. Visit to India was positive and fruitful: Nepalese PM Oli: DD NEWS Dated 09.04.2018.

· 16. J.K.Verma : Modi’s Nepal Visit Reaffirms “Neighbourhood First” Policy

· Aviation & Defence Universe 14 May, 2018

· 17. Nepal asks RBI to declare banned new Indian currency notes Legal; The Wire 06.01.2019

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India-Nepal-China : A Sandwich Nepal Enjoys Being In!

· PM Oli is exploiting anti-India feelings but knows Nepal cannot progress without India

New Delhi. 04 July 2018. When it comes to the Himalayas the trinity of India-Nepal-China seems the most complex and when it comes to geopolitics of the region Nepal looks like the happy tomato in the sandwich . Trying to balance between the two big wigs on its either side, Nepal has a tough path to tread on , but not an impossible one.

Prime Minister of Nepal K.P. Sharma Oli returned from China on recently after completion of a successful five day trip, although he made his first three day official visit to India in April and after Oli’s visit Prime Minister Modi also reciprocated by visiting Nepal.

Oli who is close to China signed a transit trade treaty with Beijing in his last tenure in 2016 just to minimize Nepal’s dependence on India. In the recent visit to China the delegation led by Oli signed 14 agreements however the most important Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was the construction of Railway network which will connect the Gyirong trading port in Xigaze in Tibet with Kathmandu. The railway line which would pass from strenuous Himalayan region would further reduce Nepalese reliance on India. It is the second important move of Oli to reduce Nepal’s dependence on India and become closer to China. Beside MOU’s on road and rail link, agreements were also inked on energy including hydroelectric projects, cement factories, fruit production, tourism, technical cooperation, human resources development and infrastructure projects including transportation, and water resources projects. An understanding was also developed so that Nepalese can use highways on Tibet which will enhance people to people contact. Nepalese Prime Minister also mentioned that an outline is being prepared for a long-term financial backing to Nepal.

The details of MOU about the railway line which would pass from a very difficult terrain were not disclosed as it would contain several clauses which may not be liked by the people of Nepal. China which is developing infrastructure in neighbouring countries including Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh keeps the contents of the agreement secret. The details of much hyped China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in which China has pledged to invest more than $50 billion are still not available to public although there is lot of resentment in Gilgit, Baltistan and Balochistan from where CPEC would pass. The analysts mention that under the agreement contracts of all constructions have to be given to Chinese firms which charge more money than other international firms. Chinese firms bring everything from homeland including the workforce. Secondly Chinese firms give loan at much higher rates. Sri Lanka where Chinese constructed outsized infrastructure projects could not repay the loan and ultimately had to surrender Hambantota Port as well as 15000 acres of land adjacent to the port to China on a 99 years lease.

Same way CPEC will prove a debt-trap for Pakistan as the country is passing from an economic crisis and Beijing will not only occupy Gwadar port but will also exploit the mineral resources and virgin land of Giligit & Baltistan.

It appears that Nepal will be the next victim of China and former Foreign Minister Prakash Saran Mahat has correctly pointed out that Nepal will not be in a position to repay the loan as the cost of construction of Railways in this hilly and inhospitable terrain may be more than the annual capital expenditure of the country. He further pointed out that the returns of such gargantuan project will come very late and in the meantime poor Nepalese will continue suffering. The analysts assert that the railway line is not in the interest of Nepal but both China and Oli want to construct the railway line so that the dependence on India can be reduced. The 70-120 KMs railway line which will be a technological marvel will require extensive and problematical tunnels, bridge and culverts.

Oli exploits anti-India sentiments which are high since September 2015 when Nepal alleged that India has created an economic and humanitarian crisis by blocking supply of petroleum, medicines and other important items. India denied these fabricated allegations. India baiters also allege that India wishes to control Nepal and desires to carve out a separate state for people of Indian origin (Madhesis).

Oli and his party may try to replace India by taking assistance from Beijing but it will be difficult for China to replace India due to geographical reasons. Beijing is an expansionist country and its strategy is to construct jumbo infrastructure projects in financially starved neighbourhood by giving loans at higher rates. After sometime the neighbouring countries are unable to pay the loan and China occupies the strategic ports and areas. China signed Free Trade Agreement and took one island of Maldives and negotiating to take one more island. Beijing also invested huge amount in Bangladesh and in this way besides creating jobs for Chinese and good return of their investment China is also encircling India which is a potential rival.

Oli won 2017 elections on anti-India rhetoric and he wants to show to anti-India and pro-Chinese masses that he is lessening Nepal’s dependence on India. Although the Trans Himalayan railway is not an economically viable project because the trade-volume present and future through this route will be less but it is a secondary issue, Oli will get support from the masses. India also promised a 69 KMs oil pipeline from Motihari (Bihar) to Amlekhaganj in Nepal, construction of railway line from Raxaul (Bihar) to Kathmandu and Arun Three hydropower plant which would be important for energy hungry Nepal.

China also offered a trilateral cooperation in Nepal between India, China and Nepal however India is reluctant to join the trilateral agreement. China is also eager to get India’s support for President Xi Jinping’s dream project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which India refused to accept as it passes from Kashmir which is illegally occupied by Pakistan. Secondly Indian policy makers feel that India has a deep-rooted relationship with Nepal hence trilateral relationship will not be beneficial for India.

The policy planners in Nepal must consider that signing of Transit and Trade Treaty with China or constructing of a railway line linking both the countries are good on paper but practically China’s seaports are more than 3000 KMs away hence it is better for Nepal to link more with India than China.

Oli is working hard for the economic progress of Nepal hence Kathmandu will need India as it is the biggest trading partner of Nepal but Oli will like to reduce the economic dependence on India and will like to balance between India and China. Beijing will like to assist Nepal but will avoid confrontation with India and that is the reason China suggested for trilateral cooperation.

China which gives prime importance to security is averse to the idea of opening more check posts. In fact the oldest and most popular border-post Tatopani is closed from last three years. However the influence of China is increasing and Chinese tourists have outnumbered Indian tourists in the first quarter of 2018. The cooperation between Nepalese army and Chinese army is also increasing and last year both the armies conducted a joint exercise. Although Chinese President Xi Jinping has not visited Nepal so far but high-level visits between both the countries have considerably increased.

Chinese lobby is quite strong in Nepal and leaders of political parties, intellectuals and media support the implementation of agreements with China and are in favour of reducing dependence on India. The newspapers and magazines print articles and editorials favouring BRI and ask government to start projects related to BRI. The Chinese lobby also project shortcomings in Indian projects especially the delay in completion of the Indian funded projects.

Beijing always claims that it does not interfere in the internal affairs of Nepal while there is a large majority which alleges that India interferes in the internal affairs of Nepal and its approach is of big brother. According to an estimate about 1.5 million Nepalese are working in India but it does not create a goodwill as large number of Nepalese are doing menial jobs and does not have good feeling about country of their employment. Chinese lobby in Nepal claim that it is humiliating for Nepal.

China has deep pockets and surplus foreign exchange. In 2017 Chinese firms promised to invest about $ 8.3 billion while India pledged paltry sum of $317 million only however Modi government which is pursuing “neighbourhood policy” gave full importance to all its neighbours including Nepal. Modi in his recent visit insisted more on cultural and religious ties including the development of “Ramayana Circuit”, places related to Buddha and Jain religions. It may develop religious tourism which will increase people to people contact.

Chinese presence will increase in Nepal and India’s warning that it will be debt-trap is of no use as Nepalese will consider it as interference in their internal affairs. Several agreements with China will die their own death as they are not practicable. China promised to supply petroleum products to Nepal but it could not work and Nepal is importing petroleum products from India only. The railway line between Nepal and Tibet may also meet the same fate while railway line connecting Lumbini to Kathmandu will be complete. Same way Nepal signed in favour of BRI in May 2017 but there is no major headway in it. Hence India should watch patiently and Nepalese inclination towards China will wither-away in due course of time. The prudent Nepalese realise that Chinese terms and conditions of the contract are unfavourable to Nepal and in long-run it will be detrimental for the country while India is a democratic country and has no expansionist designs hence it is easier to deal with it.

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Modi’s Nepal Visit Reaffirms “Neighbourhood First” Policy

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/modis-nepal-visit-reaffirms-neighbourhood-first-policy/

· Visit may also counter Chinese influence

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 14 May 2018. Prime Minister Narendra Modi understands the importance of active and assertive foreign policy; hence he made successful tours of several countries of the world including superpower like America as well as China which is trying hard to become a super power. He also comprehended that India must maintain friendly relations with all its immediate neighbours and propounded “neighbourhood first” policy. He invited all the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries at his oath taking ceremony and on the next day he had bilateral talks with all the heads of state. The media projected it as a small SAARC summit. He also told scientists of Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) to build up an exclusive SAARC satellite.

The whirlwind tours of Modi achieved positive results and the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) enhanced considerably, not only this few countries also agreed to transfer technology under present government’s ambitious ‘Make in India’ programme which will generate opportunities of massive employment.

India’s Western neighbour which has waged a low-intensity war against India was sidelined in international community and even United States suspended aid to Islamabad which was a big jolt to its economy.

China, which overtly shows that it wants to inculcate friendship with India but covertly instigates Pakistan to assist terrorism in India, is also encircling the country. Hence it is significant that Modi by its visits abroad inculcates multiple friends and in case of hostility with China they render direct or indirect assistance to New Delhi.

The present communist government of Nepal under Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli is considered to be pro-China while the statements and actions of Oli in his previous tenure were anti-India. Nonetheless this time Oli paid a three day official visit to India from April 6^th, 2018 which was his first overseas visit after taking over as Prime Minister. After completion of his visit he mentioned that the visit was not only “significant” and “fruitful” but it also cleared apprehensions and misconceptions. The visit also restored mutual trust which was unfortunately worn-out. Nonetheless Indian policy planners also attach prodigious importance to Nepal hence Modi reached Kathmandu on May 11 on a two-day visit to further strengthen the relations between New Delhi and Kathmandu. The present visit indicates the importance New Delhi attaches to Kathmandu as it is the third visit of Modi after taking over in 2104 although it is his first visit after Oli took over as Prime Minister.

Indian policy planners have rightly assessed that Oli has emerged very powerful in his second term, as the present Left Alliance between Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists Centre) will occupy all important positions, nonetheless Oli will have to sort out the problem of Madhesis as well as he will have to make a balance between India and China. In his last term he tilted excessively in favour of China and signed a trade and transit agreement with China to counter India. He also promised to link Nepal and China through Rail link although not much headway was achieved on these projects but there is an acute pressure from pro-China and anti-India lobby to accelerate these projects. The analysts claim that Oli would renew China’s Budhi-Gandaki project and will try to strengthen connectivity with geographically difficult China with ulterior motive of finishing Nepal’s dependence on India.

Chinese investment is much more than India and the former has surplus foreign exchange which it invests in the infrastructure projects of neighbouring countries. Nepal is suffering with rampant poverty and paucity of basic infrastructure hence it is desperate to develop infrastructure. In 2014 China outpaced India and became the leading investor in the country. Again in 2017 Chinese firms pledged the investment of $ 8.3 billion while Indian firms committed $317 million only. Chinese tourists are visiting Nepal in large number and more Nepalese students are going to China for studies. Several Chinese language institutes have opened in Nepal.

Unfortunately Indian projects are delayed and although Prime Minister Modi in his first visit to Nepal in 2014 promised to complete the projects within targeted time but there is no marked improvement and most of Indian funded projects including hydropower project on the Mahakali River could not meet the targets.

China has adopted the strategy of investing in neighbouring countries with ulterior motive of encircling India. China invested in Pakistan and occupied Gwadar Port, same way Sri Lanka had to surrender Hambantota Port after signing a lease of 99 years. China invested formidable amount in Bangladesh and signed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Maldives. China has also taken one island in Maldives and likely to take one more island. First Beijing tried to invest in Afghanistan along with its all weather friend Pakistan but it could not work due to Islamabad’s sullied image in the country. Now both India and China would be working on joint projects in Afghanistan.

Oli won recently held elections on anti-India rhetoric as people of Nepal still remember the sufferings because of alleged blockade by India which began on 23 September, 2015. Anti-India lobby in Nepal alleges that India wants to dominate Nepal and it was the only country which objected the promulgation of its constitution in 2015. India baiters further allege that India insists on the formation of a separate state for Madhesis (people of Indian origin) but Nepal considers it as a security threat. Indian detractors also mention that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also urges that Nepal should be a Hindu nation and should drop secular word from constitution which is not acceptable to Nepalese masses.

Modi in the current visit gave mythological references and emphasised more on old cultural and religious ties and people to people contact and about the development of “Ramayana Circuit” which would enhance religious tourism. He also announced Rs.100 crore packages to develop Janakpur which is birthplace of Hindu goddess Sita. Both prime ministers jointly inaugurated Janakpur-Ayodhya bus service which will link two important cities of “Ramayana Circuit”. Modi besides “Ramayana Circuit” also announced about the development of places associated with Buddha and Jain religions. It would enhance contact between nationals of both the countries and will accelerate tourism which will generate employment.

Modi also accentuated the promotion of tradition, trade, tourism, technology and transport. He also emphasised the importance of connecting India and Nepal through information technology, expressways, railways, waterways, airways etc. He assured that India will construct railway line between Raxaul and Kathmandu.

The far-sighted Nepalese understand that China has expansionist designs and Chinese companies not only charge more money but the rate of interest is also much higher. Chinese are building Pokhara Airport at the cost of USD 216 million however the estimated cost was USD 140 million only. Not only has this China forced the other countries to lease strategic places including ports to China. India being a democratic country it is easy to criticise India but it may not be that easy to criticise communist China.

Anti- India and pro-Chinese Nepalese were also able to organise few protests during the visit of Modi and demanded apology for 2015 economic blockade. However analysts claim that the protests were more against Nepalese government than against India. Besides demonstrations there were two bomb blasts, first explosion was near Indian Consulate at Biratnagar while the other was on April 29 in hydroelectricity project in Khandbari. Modi also laid foundation stone USD 1.5 billion hydro-electricity project.

On May 8, Nepal government has withdrawn Budhi Gandaki hydropower project which was given to a Chinese company by the previous government led by Prachanda in 2016. The contract was given without tender and now the present government will give the project after issue of global tender. It is a positive gesture by Oli government.

The basic purpose of Modi’s visit was to inculcate friendship with Nepal and clear the misunderstanding. India cannot compete China as for as investments are concerned hence Modi insisted more on people to people contact.

After the visit Modi tweeted that the visit was “historic” and “productive”. The joint statement reiterated to work together to strengthen the bilateral relations. Oli who is determined to develop Nepal will like to have close relationship with India which is the largest business partner of Nepal. Oli is not anti-India and he understands that 90 percent of Nepalese trade is with India and geographically India can assist easily than China.

India should chalk out a long term plan so that misconceptions generated in the minds of Nepalese masses are resolved. The misunderstanding include that India renders big-brotherly treatment to Nepal and security forces deployed on India-Nepal borders ill-treat Nepalese crossing the international borders. Nepalese are also worried about the rising trade deficit and inundation of Terai region because of dams made in Indian side. Indian tormentors are also against the recruitment of Nepalese citizens in Indian army. In nutshell Nepalese want to be treated on equal footing as Nepal is a sovereign state which is not a big deal. Indian bureaucracy as well as all Indians dealing with Nepal should try to clear the misunderstanding.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Greater Nepal : A Spark Which Could Become A Fire

WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM

Nepal’s Anti-India Protest: Wooing China By Playing The Domestic Card

· Nepal-China transit agreement

· 15. Visit to India was positive and fruitful: Nepalese PM Oli: DD NEWS Dated 09.04.2018.

India-Nepal-China : A Sandwich Nepal Enjoys Being In!

Modi’s Nepal Visit Reaffirms “Neighbourhood First” Policy

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WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM

Nepal’s Anti-India Protest: Wooing China By Playing The Domestic Card

· Nepal-China transit agreement

· 15. Visit to India was positive and fruitful: Nepalese PM Oli: DD NEWS Dated 09.04.2018.

India-Nepal-China : A Sandwich Nepal Enjoys Being In!

Modi’s Nepal Visit Reaffirms “Neighbourhood First” Policy

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