Saudi Arabia

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US squirms as Xi Jinping visits Saudi Arabia

 

·        Does this friendship effect India?

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 22 December: Political history was being made with diplomacy, when earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping met King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia at Riyadh’s al-Yamamah Palace. The camaraderie between the two leaders visible during this three-day visit, is significant from several angles and has many connotations for the nations of the world.

The timing of the visit is important as the relations between Saudi Arabia and US are presently at their lowest ebb. Xi was on a state visit at the invitation of King Salman and Saudi Arabia accorded him a red-carpet welcome filled with pomp and show. On the other hand, when US President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia in September this year, his reception was very tepid. Is their more to read between the lines, as far as the oil rich Saudi Arabia is all smiles with this new found friend China?

The two heads of state co-signed in person the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between the People’s Republic of China and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and agreed to take turns to host biennial meetings between the heads of state of the two countries. They also signed 34 bilateral agreements. But the story did not begin in Riyadh but started earlier with the cross-border RMB payment which has played an important role in boosting trade between China and Arab states and is also a telling snapshot of trade and investment facilitation between both sides.

Over the past decade, China-Arab states economic and trade cooperation has scaled new heights. China is Arab states’ biggest trading partner. In 2021, China’s FDI stock in Arab states hit $23 billion, a 2.6 times increase over 10 years. The trade volume topped $330.3 billion, 1.5 times more than 10 years ago. In the first three quarters of 2022, China-Arab states trade reached $319.295 billion, up 35.28 percent year on year and close to the total of the whole year of 2021.

During his trip to Saudi Arabia, President Xi Jinping expressed China’s hope to level up trade, investment and financial cooperation and expand cooperation in such areas as e-commerce and digital economy with Saudi Arabia. “We are confident that this visit will boost sustained, solid progress in China-Saudi Arabia cooperation for mutual benefits of higher quality and at a deeper level,” he said.

All this also rings a bell that the cancellation of Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammad bin Salman’s (MBS) planned visit to India in November because of “scheduling issues” was genuine or Saudi Arabia did not want to annoy China with its advancement of relationship with India.

What happened to the stable ties between US and Saudi Arabia? The rift seemingly started when Joe Biden during his election campaign in 2020 continuously criticised Saudi Arabia especially MBS. In his election speech Biden threated that he would make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” nation. These statements created deep anger and animosity in Riyadh, particularly MBS took these statements against him. Saudi Arabia has also not increased its oil production although Biden requested during his visit. US was also constantly criticising Saudi Arabia on human rights issues.

Historically Riyadh has been close to Washington DC as Saudi Arabia is biggest exporter of oil and US profoundly depends on Saudi oil to fulfil its energy requirements. Riyadh is a key ally of Washington in the Middle East. But slowly and steadily Riyadh is changing its strategy. It wants to become member of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and wants to inculcate close relations with China too. This visit by the Chinese President is of significance.

The economic ties between Riyadh and Beijing are strengthening rapidly. At present China is the biggest trading partner of Saudi Arabia. In 2021 the bilateral trade between both these countries was $87.3 billion and Chinese exports to Saudi Arabia were $30.3 billion, while Saudi Arabia exported goods worth $57 billion. The major export from Riyadh was of Petroleum, Oils and Lubricants (POL). Riyadh is Beijing’s top oil supplier as it accounts for 17% of Chinese oil imports. The recent agreements were of about $30 billion and cover diverse fields including energy agreements on hydrogen. These agreements are according to MBS aspiring economic reform agenda part of vision 2030. These agreements cover varied fields including green energy, information technology, petrochemical project, cloud services, transport logistics, housing development, medical industries etc. Riyadh desires that China should bring technology in Saudi Arabia while Beijing wants that Riyadh should support its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Both countries are jointly working on several major infrastructure projects. In last 20 years China invested about $106 billion in Saudi Arabia and Riyadh has also invested large amount in China. State-owned Saudi oil giant Aramco opened refineries in China and in early 2022 decided to invest $10 billion in building a refinery and petrochemical complex in China. Beijing is also constructing a high-speed railway between Mecca and Medina.

The defence ties are also growing between both the countries. Beijing is supplying drones, air defence system and other weapon systems to Saudi Arabia. Both countries have performed joint military exercises and there are reports that the defence cooperation between both the countries would enhance.  Saudi Arabia and China are also planning to replace dollar with Yuan, if it materialises it would be a big setback to US.

US has strong military presence in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. It sells weapons to these countries and have naval bases in Middle Eastern countries. US presence in this unstable area assures the production of oil. Riyadh faces big security threat from Iran as well as its surrogate Libya.

Saudi Arabia’s trade with US is decreasing rapidly as Riyadh is diversifying its trade but its dependence on US for its security would continue. Beijing and Moscow both have close relations with Tehran while Iran is Saudi Arabia’s main foe. Hence it cannot depend on China or Russia. Both Riyadh and Washington DC has close relationship and both need each other for economic and regional stability. Saudi Arabia gets support from the lone super power which has the most powerful defence forces.

China wants to enhance its influence in Middle East as Russia has to exit from the area. Beijing which has close relations with Iran may try to minimise the differences between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Although it would be difficult as both countries view each other with suspicion. The rift between Shia and Sunni has also considerably enhanced.

Analysts claim that now Riyadh does not want to depend exclusively on US as Saudis realised that US is not a reliable partner. US response was lukewarm when Shia militia attacked Saudi Arabia’s main refinery. US support was half-hearted against Iran and their Yemeni proxies when they threatened Saudi Arabia, while US made a great fuss on human right violations in Saudi Arabia. Saudis also mention that US left Afghanistan unprotected and within a very short time Taliban captured Kabul.

Israel which is the closest ally of US also became close to Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. Israel can be helpful to Saudi Arabia to counter Iran. Saudi Arabia is the biggest buyer of US armaments from a decade. In US Saudi relationship, security, oil, and strategy are important and human rights may not be the decisive factor. Hence China and Russia would not be a substitute of US in near future. Nonetheless US has to understand the feeling and sentiments of Saudi monarchs.

In the current visit of Xi both countries have signed bilateral agreements on IT sector while India has much more expertise in IT sector but Saudi authorities preferred China more than India. Delhi should also be cautious as China and Pakistan are all weather friends and both have animosities against India. Pakistan has brotherly ties with Saudi Arabia and several times when Pakistan was in trouble Riyadh rescued Islamabad financially. At present Pakistan’s retired army chief General Raheel Sharif is the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition which is a 41-nation alliance of Muslim countries. The headquarter of the force is in Riyadh and Saudi security forces also utilise the expertise of General Sharif.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif met MBS in Sharm El Sheikh Egypt before MBS postponed his visit to India. In the meeting on the sidelines of the Conference of Parties (COP 27) Sharif assured full cooperation from Pakistan and mentioned that both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan being Muslim countries are very important for each other.

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the President of the People’s Republic of China, Mr. Xi Jinping along the East Lake, in Wuhan, China on April 28, 2018.

Delhi should be careful as its two rivals are getting closer to Saudi Arabia with which India also has close relations. India imports large quantity of oil from Saudi Arabia. About 1.54 million Indians are working in Saudi Arabia and they are sending precious foreign exchange to India. Saudi Arabia conferred its highest civilian award to Prime Minister Modi. MBS in his last visit to India in February 2019 announced an investment of $100 billion in several fields including infrastructure, energy, mining, agriculture etc. Saudi Arabia is second largest oil supplier to India. China’s rising influence in Middle Eastern countries may create a security risk to India as Beijing has already established a military base in Djibouti in 2017.

The larger picture appears that two of India’s adversaries are coming closer to Saudi Arabia which is an important source of energy as well as India’s strategic partner in West Asia. This axis which appears innocuous at this juncture may prove difficult for Delhi at a later stage.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 

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Home » Spotlight » Buyer-seller to strategic partners : India-Saudi Arabia changing dynamics

Buyer-Seller To Strategic Partners : India-Saudi Arabia Changing Dynamics

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 03 November 2019. When the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned recently after paying a two days official visit to Saudi Arabia, all eyes specially Pakistan’s were on the bonhomie and warmth between the leaders of the two important nations not only for the continent but also for the world.

It was a second visit of Modi to Saudi Arabia in last three years and the visit was important both symptomatically as well as substantially. The global focus was because not only is Saudi one of the most important Muslim country in the world but is also a perpetual saviour of Pakistan.

The visit was also crucial because Saudi Arabia is India’s second-biggest supplier of oil while Iraq is the largest oil supplier. India is world’s third biggest oil consumer and it produces only 17 percent of oil indigenously. Saudi Arabia supplied 40.33 million tonnes of crude oil in 2018-19 and 200,000 tonnes of LPG every month to India. Saudi Arabia has emerged as fourth biggest trading partner of India, as in 2017-18 the bilateral trade was $27.48 billion.

However, the basic object of the visit was to upgrade the relationship from buyer-seller connection to the strategic association. Modi government is pursuing an aggressive policy of collaboration with regional powers like UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel to attract the investments. Modi has visited eight middle eastern countries and territories w.e.f. 2014 as it is visualised that in 2024 India’s demand for oil will surpass China’s requirement.

Saudi Arabia under crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) also wants to expand its relationships with important countries of the world including India. MBS is aware that the economy of the country cannot remain dependent on oil for a long time as the researches are working hard to find the substitutes of oil. US has already found unconventional shale oil and vigorous work is going on to utilise renewable energy. Hence MBS wants to invest money in developing countries in manufacturing sectors, technology especially information technology and growing service sector. India is reforming itself and climbed 23 points and reached at 77^th place in the World Bank’s ease of doing business index in 2019. India is strong in information technology and also working hard to improve its service sector. 

Prime Minister who had gone to Saudi Arabia on the invitation of King met Saudi king Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and both of them criticised terrorism and appreciated the increasing cooperation between both the countries on several matters including security matters. He also had fruitful meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), Foreign Minister, Energy Minister, Labour and Social Development Minister, Environment and Agriculture Minister. Both countries signed 12 agreements and MOUs on different fields including defence industries collaboration, cooperation on renewable energy, prevention of narcotics trafficking, cooperation on Haj related matters, RuPay card, security cooperation etc.

Prime Minister Modi also delivered the keynote address at Future Investment Initiative (FII), which is also known as ‘Davos in the desert’. In his speech he narrated several reforms India took and also talked about his vision of $ 5 trillion economy. Besides touching regional and international issues he made it clear that India intends to invest $ 100 billion by 2024 in oil sector especially on refining, pipelines and gas terminals. Saudi firm Aramco has agreed to invest in West Coast Refinery Project which will be biggest refinery in Asia.

Both countries have also signed an agreement to constitute a ‘Strategic Partnership Council’, which was headed by Prime Minister Modi and King Salman. The council which would enhance the strategic partnership is significant as India signed this agreement with only three countries before namely Germany, Russia and Japan.

The timing of the visit was important as India defanged article 370 of the constitution in August 2019, which granted special status to J&K. Pakistani leaders and generals gave erroneous impression to the semi-literate masses in the country that they would merge J&K in Pakistan, issued strong statements about Kashmir. They also tried to take Kashmir issue in world forums but got very little success. The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and other Muslim countries had also not extended any support to Pakistan. In fact, Pakistan was saved by China, Turkey and Malaysia in The Financial Action Task Force (FATF). MBS took a positive approach and warned Pakistan not to worsen the situation. 

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan is facing lot of resentment in the country. It is reported that about 12 army generals are opposing Pakistan army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa as he took three years extension by which the career of several generals have doomed. These generals are covertly supporting the Azadi March launched by the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam leader Fazal-ur-Rehman (JUI-F). In view of massive opposition in the country Imran Khan issued several anti-India and pro Kashmir statements but he could not achieve any success. He unilaterally downgraded ties with India, refused to give permission to Modi’s plane to use Pakistan airspace etc.

The performance of Indian business community which accompanied Modi was also very impressive and were able to convince Saudi entrepreneurs. Saudis can invest in diverse fields including infrastructure, as India needs massive investments. Both countries may have bilateral cooperation in information technology, education, medicine and green energy. Saudis can utilise Indian technical knowhow and trained manpower and can invest money which will not only be safe but grow steadily.  

The visit is also important as Saudi Arabia is considered as ‘home of Islam’ and is also the custodian of the holy mosques located in Mecca and Medina. India has about 201 million Muslims and has world’s second-largest Muslim population. Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan has launched special operations to radicalise Indian Muslims especially in J&K.

If India develops cordial relations especially on security and strategic fields with Saudi Arabia it will diminish ill effect of Pakistan anti-India rhetoric. Saudi Arabia may not assist Pakistan if it will continue helping terrorist outfits in India in carrying out terrorist activities. MBS and other Saudi leaders have already issued statements against terrorism. Both sides discussed regional and global issues and rejected any type of interference in the internal affairs of other country. Although no name was mentioned but it was an implied reference of Pakistan.  

Delhi signed a treaty with Muscat that Indian Navy can utilise strategic port of Duqm. MBS in his latest visit promised to share intelligence pertaining to terrorism with India. Saudis also made a big investment in India by purchasing a 20 percent stake in Reliance Industries’ oil and chemical business.    

Although India is purchasing oil from Middle Eastern Countries and millions of Indians are working in Gulf countries but India’s relationship with these countries was superficial. These countries have also not invested much in India. Nevertheless, after Modi came to power his government made sincere efforts to attract investment in India. He was able to cultivate strong links with crown princes of Saudi Arabia and UAE. The Middle Eastern states also showed interest in India as well as in investments. The relationship between India and middle eastern countries especially with Saudi Arabia and UAE will be strengthened. It will also be a big jolt to Islamabad and the possibility that Pakistan reduces its anti-India activities cannot be ruled out completely.  

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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India – Saudi Arabia Relations On A New High

Aviation & Defence Universe

WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM

India – Saudi Arabia Relations On A New High

he Prime Minister, Narendra Modi with the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 25 February 2019. The high-profile visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, popularly known as MBS, to India was a great success although few critics commented that the visit was after Pakistan visit where he promised assistance of $20 billion. The detractors also tried to link the visit with the aftermath of Pulwama terrorist attack where 40 Indian soldiers were martyred. Nonetheless the India-Saudi Arabia joint statement condemned terrorism in strong words it also castigated Pulwama attack specifically. It was not expected that the joint communique would include the name of Pakistan or Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M) as in that case the visiting dignitary might have insisted to incorporate the name of its arch-rival Iran or terrorist outfits funded by Iran which would have been embarrassing for Delhi.

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud at the delegation level talks, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

Both countries agreed to have joint naval exercises and wide-ranging security dialogue amid the National Security Advisers. New Delhi and Tehran also decided to produce spare parts for the defence forces. MBS promised to free 850 Indian prisoners and also enhanced the quota for Indian Haj pilgrims. MBS also approved the investment of $100 billion in India on diverse fields including petrochemicals, agriculture, energy, infrastructure, refining, minerals and mining.

Before India the Crown Prince also visited Pakistan on February 17 & 18 where Islamabad not only gave red carpet reception to him but also bestowed its highest civilian award Nishan-e-Pakistan. Prime Minister drove his car and he and Chief of Army Staff saw him off at the airport. MBS released 2107 Pakistani convicts and both sides signed several agreements. Moe than 2.5 million Pakistanis work in Saudi Arabia and the Royal Kingdom supplies oil to Islamabad on deferred payments and often renders financial assistance to the ailing economy of the country.  

Crown Prince delayed his Pakistan visit for a day and also postponed his visits to Indonesia and Malaysia, however no reasons were given for these changes in the already approved programmes. Nevertheless, his visits to India and China remained as scheduled. MBS’s visits to eastern countries are significant as at present Saudis relations with US and Europe are tense because of the killing of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. Khashoggi was a Saudi journalist and was a critic of Crown Prince and wrote several articles against him. MBS had chosen Pakistan, India and China to tour at this juncture, as he rightly expected that he will receive warm welcome in all the three countries.   

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud witnessing the Exchange of Agreements between India and Saudi Arabia, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

Prime Minister Modi was able to inculcate friendly ties with several gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and the current visit of Crown Prince was evidence of the cordial relations. Saudis are important for India as 63 percent of India’s oil comes from this region and Saudi Arabia hosts about seven million Indians and they remit about $40 billion. 

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto also successfully developed cordial relations with King Faisal of Saudi Arabia, nonetheless the decades old relations became sour when Pakistan refused to send its troops in Saudi-led coalition to fight with Houthi militia in Yemen in 2015. Houthi militia were supported by Iran. Now again Riyadh developed closeness with nuclear empowered Islamabad as it can be a counter to Iran as the latter is trying to equip itself with nuclear warheads.

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud witnessing the Exchange of Agreements between India and Saudi Arabia, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

Saudi Arabia also finances several Madrassas and seminaries which spreads Wahhabism in Pakistan. In October 2018 Saudis gave $6 billion including $3 billion of oil payment deferrals to take out Pakistan from economic crisis. However, Pakistan is still talking to International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the bail out and if IMF agrees then it will be country’s 13^th bailout since 1980.

The analysts claim that Saudis also want to diversify its oil- based economy hence they are investing outside so that they can earn returns in future. Besides it, Pakistan army is one of the 20 most powerful military in the world and it is equipped with nuclear war-heads. Pakistan provides security and support to Royal family. According to an estimate around 65,000 Pakistani soldiers are in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is the only country which can provide military assistance to Saud Royal family in hour of need. There are also reports that Saudi Arabia financed Pakistan nuclear project and Saudis can have nuclear weapons when required.

The Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud inspecting the Guard of Honour, at the Ceremonial Reception, at Rashtrapati Bhavan, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

In November and December 1979, the insurgents asked the public to overthrow the King of Saudi Arabia and overtook Masjid al-Haram in Mecca. The rebels declared that their leader Mohammed Abdullah al-Qahtani is Mahdi (“redeemer of Islam”) and all true Muslims must obey him. The holy shrines remained in the captivity of miscreants for about two weeks and afterwards Pakistani military’s commandos fought and reclaimed the holy shrines. Few hundred thousand pilgrims, militants and security personnel were trapped in the cross-fire.

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud witnessing the Exchange of Agreements between India and Saudi Arabia, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

Pakistan also deployed about 20,000 troops between 1982 and 1987 to defend Islamic holy sites. Saudi Arabia strongly supported Pakistan in 1965 and 1971 wars with India and also opposed the dismemberment of Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh. Pakistan also sent its army to Saudi Arabia to defend Islamic holy sites in the country during 1990-91 Persian Gulf War. Pakistan informed Saudi Arabia before performing atomic test in May 1998 and after test at Chagai Hills both Saudi Arabia and UAE supported Pakistan. Saudi Arabia also provided 50,000 barrels of free oil per day to help Pakistan. In 1969 Pakistani pilots flew Saudi Air Force aircraft and prevented an intrusion from South Yemen. Saudi Arabia also negotiated with Pakistan about the purchase of ballistic missiles which can carry nuclear warheads.

There is close military co-operation between both the countries. Pakistan Army trains personnel of Saudi Armed forces and also provides arms and ammunition to them.  Pakistan Army spokesman declared in February 2018, that the Pakistani troops will be sent to Saudi Arabia to train their army.

General (Retd) Raheel Sharif former chief of Pakistan Army just after retirement became chief of Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC). It is a Saudi led 41 nation military coalition constituted to inculcate security cooperation among the Islamic countries. It was also decided to train and equip the troops with modern warfare and equipment so that the force can fight the terrorists. However, neither Iran nor any Shia dominated country is its member and Tehran alleges that the IMCTC is against Shia countries especially Iran. The analysts claim that IMCTC was formulated by Saudi Arabia to play primary role in the Muslim world and it is against Iran. Saudis expect that in case of some trouble Pakistani soldiers in IMCTC will come for their rescue.   

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud at the Joint Press Statements, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

Pakistan and Saudis have special relationship although Pakistan also have close contact with Iran same way India and Saudi Arabia also have close friendly relations. Islamabad is Riyadh’s closest Muslim ally. In fact, Saudi Royal family depends on Pakistani Army for its defence. Saudi Arabia gets unrestrained military and political support from Islamabad, hence MBS had to give due weightage to Pakistan. Saudis are using Pakistanis against their war with Iran and as Saudi nationals are reluctant to join army hence Pakistanis fulfil the vacancies. Therefore, India should not react on Pakistan Saudi relations, India should care on India Saudi relations.

India and Saudi Arabia are trying to develop relations beyond oil trade, the relationship is becoming strategic and Saudi Arabia had deported wanted terrorists to India. MBS is planning to provide jobs to Saudis instead of expatriate workers and in that case, India will need some favour from him as few million Indians are working in Saudi Arabia and they remit few billion dollars back home.

Delhi is keeping cordial relation with Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel simultaneously, but it is in no position to convince Riyadh to work against Islamabad.      

(JK Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 The Prime Minister, Narendra Modi with the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 25 February 2019. The high-profile visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, popularly known as MBS, to India was a great success although few critics commented that the visit was after Pakistan visit where he promised assistance of $20 billion. The detractors also tried to link the visit with the aftermath of Pulwama terrorist attack where 40 Indian soldiers were martyred. Nonetheless the India-Saudi Arabia joint statement condemned terrorism in strong words it also castigated Pulwama attack specifically. It was not expected that the joint communique would include the name of Pakistan or Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M) as in that case the visiting dignitary might have insisted to incorporate the name of its arch-rival Iran or terrorist outfits funded by Iran which would have been embarrassing for Delhi.

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud at the delegation level talks, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

Both countries agreed to have joint naval exercises and wide-ranging security dialogue amid the National Security Advisers. New Delhi and Tehran also decided to produce spare parts for the defence forces. MBS promised to free 850 Indian prisoners and also enhanced the quota for Indian Haj pilgrims. MBS also approved the investment of $100 billion in India on diverse fields including petrochemicals, agriculture, energy, infrastructure, refining, minerals and mining.

Before India the Crown Prince also visited Pakistan on February 17 & 18 where Islamabad not only gave red carpet reception to him but also bestowed its highest civilian award Nishan-e-Pakistan. Prime Minister drove his car and he and Chief of Army Staff saw him off at the airport. MBS released 2107 Pakistani convicts and both sides signed several agreements. Moe than 2.5 million Pakistanis work in Saudi Arabia and the Royal Kingdom supplies oil to Islamabad on deferred payments and often renders financial assistance to the ailing economy of the country.  

Crown Prince delayed his Pakistan visit for a day and also postponed his visits to Indonesia and Malaysia, however no reasons were given for these changes in the already approved programmes. Nevertheless, his visits to India and China remained as scheduled. MBS’s visits to eastern countries are significant as at present Saudis relations with US and Europe are tense because of the killing of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. Khashoggi was a Saudi journalist and was a critic of Crown Prince and wrote several articles against him. MBS had chosen Pakistan, India and China to tour at this juncture, as he rightly expected that he will receive warm welcome in all the three countries.   

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud witnessing the Exchange of Agreements between India and Saudi Arabia, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

Prime Minister Modi was able to inculcate friendly ties with several gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and the current visit of Crown Prince was evidence of the cordial relations. Saudis are important for India as 63 percent of India’s oil comes from this region and Saudi Arabia hosts about seven million Indians and they remit about $40 billion. 

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto also successfully developed cordial relations with King Faisal of Saudi Arabia, nonetheless the decades old relations became sour when Pakistan refused to send its troops in Saudi-led coalition to fight with Houthi militia in Yemen in 2015. Houthi militia were supported by Iran. Now again Riyadh developed closeness with nuclear empowered Islamabad as it can be a counter to Iran as the latter is trying to equip itself with nuclear warheads.

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud witnessing the Exchange of Agreements between India and Saudi Arabia, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

Saudi Arabia also finances several Madrassas and seminaries which spreads Wahhabism in Pakistan. In October 2018 Saudis gave $6 billion including $3 billion of oil payment deferrals to take out Pakistan from economic crisis. However, Pakistan is still talking to International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the bail out and if IMF agrees then it will be country’s 13^th bailout since 1980.

The analysts claim that Saudis also want to diversify its oil- based economy hence they are investing outside so that they can earn returns in future. Besides it, Pakistan army is one of the 20 most powerful military in the world and it is equipped with nuclear war-heads. Pakistan provides security and support to Royal family. According to an estimate around 65,000 Pakistani soldiers are in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is the only country which can provide military assistance to Saud Royal family in hour of need. There are also reports that Saudi Arabia financed Pakistan nuclear project and Saudis can have nuclear weapons when required.

The Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud inspecting the Guard of Honour, at the Ceremonial Reception, at Rashtrapati Bhavan, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

In November and December 1979, the insurgents asked the public to overthrow the King of Saudi Arabia and overtook Masjid al-Haram in Mecca. The rebels declared that their leader Mohammed Abdullah al-Qahtani is Mahdi (“redeemer of Islam”) and all true Muslims must obey him. The holy shrines remained in the captivity of miscreants for about two weeks and afterwards Pakistani military’s commandos fought and reclaimed the holy shrines. Few hundred thousand pilgrims, militants and security personnel were trapped in the cross-fire.

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud witnessing the Exchange of Agreements between India and Saudi Arabia, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

Pakistan also deployed about 20,000 troops between 1982 and 1987 to defend Islamic holy sites. Saudi Arabia strongly supported Pakistan in 1965 and 1971 wars with India and also opposed the dismemberment of Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh. Pakistan also sent its army to Saudi Arabia to defend Islamic holy sites in the country during 1990-91 Persian Gulf War. Pakistan informed Saudi Arabia before performing atomic test in May 1998 and after test at Chagai Hills both Saudi Arabia and UAE supported Pakistan. Saudi Arabia also provided 50,000 barrels of free oil per day to help Pakistan. In 1969 Pakistani pilots flew Saudi Air Force aircraft and prevented an intrusion from South Yemen. Saudi Arabia also negotiated with Pakistan about the purchase of ballistic missiles which can carry nuclear warheads.

There is close military co-operation between both the countries. Pakistan Army trains personnel of Saudi Armed forces and also provides arms and ammunition to them.  Pakistan Army spokesman declared in February 2018, that the Pakistani troops will be sent to Saudi Arabia to train their army.

General (Retd) Raheel Sharif former chief of Pakistan Army just after retirement became chief of Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC). It is a Saudi led 41 nation military coalition constituted to inculcate security cooperation among the Islamic countries. It was also decided to train and equip the troops with modern warfare and equipment so that the force can fight the terrorists. However, neither Iran nor any Shia dominated country is its member and Tehran alleges that the IMCTC is against Shia countries especially Iran. The analysts claim that IMCTC was formulated by Saudi Arabia to play primary role in the Muslim world and it is against Iran. Saudis expect that in case of some trouble Pakistani soldiers in IMCTC will come for their rescue.   

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi and the Crown Prince, Vice President of the Council of Ministers of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud at the Joint Press Statements, at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on February 20, 2019.

Pakistan and Saudis have special relationship although Pakistan also have close contact with Iran same way India and Saudi Arabia also have close friendly relations. Islamabad is Riyadh’s closest Muslim ally. In fact, Saudi Royal family depends on Pakistani Army for its defence. Saudi Arabia gets unrestrained military and political support from Islamabad, hence MBS had to give due weightage to Pakistan. Saudis are using Pakistanis against their war with Iran and as Saudi nationals are reluctant to join army hence Pakistanis fulfil the vacancies. Therefore, India should not react on Pakistan Saudi relations, India should care on India Saudi relations.

India and Saudi Arabia are trying to develop relations beyond oil trade, the relationship is becoming strategic and Saudi Arabia had deported wanted terrorists to India. MBS is planning to provide jobs to Saudis instead of expatriate workers and in that case, India will need some favour from him as few million Indians are working in Saudi Arabia and they remit few billion dollars back home.

Delhi is keeping cordial relation with Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel simultaneously, but it is in no position to convince Riyadh to work against Islamabad.      

(JK Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)