Afghanistan
(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. He can be
contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)
Afghanistan
SPOTLIGHT
American troop withdrawal from
Afghanistan will be calamitous for region
If the
Taliban comes to power, it will be a tragedy for India too; the Taliban being
supported by Pakistan will harm Indian projects and interests in that country,
writes J.K.Verma for South Asia Monitor
US President Donald Trump is desperate to recall troops from
Afghanistan for domestic compulsions and, for this, he appointed Zalmay
Khalilzad as special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation in September 2018.
Khalilzad met Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and top Afghan officials in October
and subsequently led an inter-agency delegation to Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.
Afghan peace a chimera at best
SOUTH ASIA MONITOR
While Taliban are strengthening,
peace in Afghanistan can come only through negotiations
The beleaguered Afghan government has offered a ceasefire to the
Taliban, after the latter kidnapped about 200 bus passengers on 20th August in
the Northern Province of Kunduz. The Taliban released all civilians but carried
20 Afghan security personnel away. The ceasefire offer, welcomed by the US and
NATO forces, was rejected by Taliban commanders, who declared they would carry
on their fight against Afghan forces assisted by foreign troops. The Afghan
government claimed the Taliban released civilians because of operations
launched by security forces, in which seven insurgents were killed.
THE PIONEER
COLUMNISTS
LASTING
SOLUTION TO AFGHAN CRISIS
3
Islamic State is growing in strength in Afghanistan
THE PIONEER
IS AND
ITS DISASTROUS INFLUENCE IN AFGHANISTAN
After losing the war in Iraq
and Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the new target for the Islamic State.
While the world must unite to destroy its bases, the Afghan Government must
take the lead
Aviation & Defence Universe
Solution Of Afghan Problem
Lies In Nailing “Terroristan”
Aviation & Defence Universe
Pakistan To Be Blamed For Its
Sliding Relations With Afghanistan
Afghanistan
should pay back Pakistan in the same coin; By Jai Kumar Verma
Afghanistan should pay back Pakistan in the
same coin; By Jai Kumar Verma
Afghanistan
·
FEB 6
2019
FEB 6
2019
(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. He can be
contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)·
RESEARCH
·
RESEARCH
SPOTLIGHT
3.
American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan will be calamitous
for region
American troop withdrawal from
Afghanistan will be calamitous for region
If the
Taliban comes to power, it will be a tragedy for India too; the Taliban being
supported by Pakistan will harm Indian projects and interests in that country,
writes J.K.Verma for South Asia Monitor
FEB 5, 2019
·
·
·
US President Donald Trump is desperate to recall troops from
Afghanistan for domestic compulsions and, for this, he appointed Zalmay
Khalilzad as special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation in September 2018.
Khalilzad met Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and top Afghan officials in October
and subsequently led an inter-agency delegation to Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.
Besides Qatar, reconciliation talks were also held in UAE in
December, for which Pakistan claimed credit. The Khalilzad-led US team, the
Taliban, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE took part in those talks, which ended
abruptly. Although Afghan government representatives were in the UAE, they were
not allowed to participate, because the Taliban refused to sit with them.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said more reconciliatory
talks would be held in future and that talks centred around the removal of
foreign troops from Afghanistan. He made it clear that internal matters, such
as formation of an interim government, elections, ceasefire and so on, were not
discussed.
After the talks, Khalilzad visited Pakistan and met Army Chief
General Qamar Javed Bajwa and briefed him about the talks. Analysts claim that
Khalilzad requested Bajwa to persuade the Taliban to soften their attitude so
that reconciliation talks succeed. After Islamabad, Khalilzad also visited
Kabul and briefed Afghan authorities about the outcome of the talks.
American troops landed in Afghanistan in December 2001, to
defeat Al Qaeda and to safeguard US interests. An American general had
testified before the US Congress that they had “decimated Al Qaeda.” The
critics said the statement was intended to justify withdrawal of American
troops from war-torn Afghanistan. However the world at large and Americans in
particular must remember the horrific September 11, 2001 attacks, which were
carried out by Al Qaeda and the Taliban sheltered them in Afghanistan. The
announcement of intent to withdraw US troops is under domestic pressure and
without considering the country’s long-term interest.
The control of the Taliban over large parts of Afghanistan is
not diminishing and ill-equipped, ill-trained and dispirited Afghan National
Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are suffering heavy causalities and losing
territories. In fact, over the last few months, fatalities have enhanced to the
level that the Afghan government was forced not to publish reports of
casualties.
In case the US withdraws completely, then China, Russia, Iran
and Pakistan would try to enhance their influence in Afghanistan. These
countries would try to increase their economic and political sway in Central
Asia through Afghanistan.
President Trump’s advisers feel that the 17 years’ war, in which
more than 2300 US citizens have lost their lives, is still not near any
solution. The Taliban are getting assistance from various quarters,
particularly from Pakistan, which wants to install a puppet regime in Kabul and
considers the Taliban as a strategic asset. The present Afghan government could
not achieve legitimacy as quite a few tribal groups are not part of the
administration and the tribal leaders in administration are either benefiting
their families or fulfilling the interests of their tribes.
US foreign policy depends on the country’s domestic policies.
Trump has ordered the withdrawal of about half the 14,000 US troops in
Afghanistan and also withdrawal of 2,000 US troops deployed in Syria. Defense
Secretary James Mattis resigned as he and many Trump advisers felt that hasty
withdrawal of US troops would embolden the Taliban and the present Afghan
government will collapse.
Once Taliban comes to power, Islamic extremism would enhance
manifold and Al Qaeda and Islamic State would proliferate. Taliban would impose
Sharia law and will take the country to the primitive age. State-sponsored
Islamic terrorism would surge and wide-ranging terrorist incidents would take
place, not only in neighbouring countries but also in distant places like
America and Europe.
Sunni and Shia-ruled countries would finance diverse terrorist
outfits and they will carry out terrorist activities not only in Afghanistan
but in other countries. Hence Trump should postpone his decision to withdraw
troops for some more time and utilise the extended period to train and equip
the ANDSF with drones and other weaponry to enable them to bombard hideouts of
terrorists in Afghanistan and, particularly, in Pakistan. However, care must be
taken to minimize civilian casualties.
India should not send its troops to war-ravaged Afghanistan but
must enhance the number of Afghan security trainees in India. If the Taliban
comes to power, it will be a tragedy for India too; the Taliban being supported
by Pakistan will harm Indian projects and interests in that country.
Although Afghan leaders are showing a brave face by saying that
US troops are involved in training and advice only, and ANDSF is competent to
counter the Taliban and other terrorist outfits, Afghan watchers are aware
about the hollowness of these claims. The withdrawal of US troops will have a
calamitous effect on ANDSF and will be a great morale-booster for the Taliban.
Afghan peace a chimera at best
·
Multiple stakeholders
have attempted to bring peace in Afghanistan but self-interest fails them.
Unless they work cohesively, they cannot tame the Taliban which has been
flexible in its demands
This year saw all major stakeholders in Afghanistan making tremendous
efforts to bring peace to the war-ravaged country, albeit for diverse reasons.
The next presidential election is scheduled for April 2019 and President Ashraf
Ghani has already announced that he will seek re-election. While he may have
taken some tough decisions that may have earned him respect among the political
circles, there have been letdowns, too, both on political and security fronts.
This is the reason why he has been more determined to bring peace to
Afghanistan. And if he succeeds, it will be a major achievement for him and his
country as well. In February, Ghani offered the Taliban unconditional peace
talks. The Taliban, too, honoured the same and for three days, there was peace
during Eid, after 17 years of incessant fighting.
The US, which is fighting its longest war in Afghanistan,
appointed Zalmay Mamozy Khalilzad as the Special Representative for Afghanistan
Reconciliation in the US Department of State, to broker peace between the
Government and the Taliban. In November, a two-day conference was held in
Geneva to discuss developments in Afghanistan. Russia, which was forcibly
evicted from Afghanistan about 30 years ago and wanted to show its influence in
the region, organised a meeting in Moscow on November 9, in which
representatives from 12 countries discussed the Afghan peace process. Although
no tangible decision was taken, the participation by the Taliban,
representatives of the Afghan Government, China, Iran, Pakistan and India was a
great achievement.
Iran, China and Russia, too, want peace in Afghanistan as the
Islamic State’s (IS) influence is on the rise. Iran is worried because the IS
is a Sunni Salafi terrorist organisation that does not consider Shia Muslims as
true believers. It believes the terror organisation will make all efforts to
trouble the Shia regime over there. China, on the other hand, is already facing
an uprising by Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and does
not want IS control in Afghanistan as it will render wholehearted assistance to
Uyghur terrorist outfits.
The IS is becoming strong in northern Afghanistan, which is near
to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. These countries share a close
relationship with Russia. Second, Russia also has a sizeable Muslim population
and, hence, escalating IS influence in Afghanistan would be detrimental for
Russia.
As regards Pakistan, which always claims that India has no role
to play in Afghanistan, and has also alleged that we have been using
Afghanistan as a base to instigate terrorist activities in the restive province
of Balochistan, it has already acknowledged that India has stakes in
Afghanistan and its cooperation is necessary for the peace process in the
war-torn country. Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the Foreign Minister of Pakistan,
speaking in the National Assembly on December 10, said, “India also has stakes
in Afghanistan and its cooperation will be needed.” He also accepted the fact
that Pakistan alone cannot bring peace in Afghanistan.
It is a well-known fact that Pakistan has been facing isolation,
globally and is also passing through an economic crisis. Its all-weather friend
China has refused to extend financial assistance and the International Monetary
Fund has put stringent conditions to bail out Islamabad from the economic
catastrophe. The US, which has in the past bailed out Pakistan from economic
calamity, has also suspended all financial assistance to Islamabad.
The above mentioned factors are a proof why Pakistan wants to
show to the world that it wants peace with India and, therefore, it has offered
India to start peaceful negotiations and has also accepted our role in
Afghanistan.
Islamabad is also happy to receive a letter from US President
Donald Trump to assist the peace process in Afghanistan. Pakistan Prime
Minister Imran Khan also met Khalilzad on December 5 in Islamabad. In the
meeting, Khalilzad requested Khan to make good use of his office so that the
Taliban can constructively participate in the peace negotiations. Khan promised
to help and accepted that reconciliation is the only way out. Pakistan Army
chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, too, wants to have cordial relations with the
US.
There are also reports that a four-member Taliban delegation
from its political office in Qatar also met Khalilzad and several Pakistani
officials in Islamabad. The military-controlled Inter Services Intelligence
(ISI), which has a close relationship with the top Taliban leadership, is also
using its influence over them to win confidence of the US officials.
Pakistan released Abdul Ghani Baradar, a senior Taliban leader,
from the prison in order to support peace talks and bring an end to years of
fighting. Khalilzad will visit eight countries, which includes Afghanistan,
Russia and the United Arab Emirates, to restore peace in the country.
Representatives of the Taliban reiterated their past stand that
they do not consider the present Afghan Government as a legitimate one
and, hence, they want to negotiate with the US. The Taliban, too, maintained
that their fight will continue until all foreign troops and bases are removed
from Afghanistan. Taliban representatives accepted that their participation in
the conference helped reinforce their international position.
India, which follows the policy that peace talks must be led by
the Afghan Government, also amended its strategy in view of the changes in
regional and international arena. Two non-official Indian representatives
attended the multi-national conference in Moscow where they sat with representatives
from the Taliban.
It is by now clear that all key players claim that they want to
restore peace in Afghanistan but chances of peace are remote as interested
parties are not working cohesively. Their interests are poles apart and clash
with each other on several occasions. Khalilzad met Taliban representatives in
Qatar and discussed several important issues, including withdrawal of US troops
without representatives from the Afghan Government. The US wants peace in
Afghanistan but does not want to withdraw completely as in that case, Russia,
China and Iran will enhance their domination in the country.
On similar lines, Russia wants to increase its influence in
Afghanistan after 30 years of its unceremonious eviction. Moscow wants to
contain the IS and also hurt Washington as the latter did 30 years ago. Saudi
Arabia has been pumping money to needle Iran, while the latter is busy
strengthening Shia outfits. Besides, external forces, like the drug-mafia, also
want insurgency to continue as security forces are more involved in fighting
the Taliban and the IS.
By sidelining the Afghan Government, the US and Russia have
highlighted the incapability and weakness of Kabul. This has been damaging the
peace process in Afghanistan. Not only does this marginalise a lawfully-elected
Government but gives more legitimacy to the Taliban. In fact, Afghanistan needs
a strong Government that has the support of all external powers. Only then can
it counter the Taliban and peace can be restored in the country.
On the other hand, the Taliban is not in a hurry to participate
in the peace process. US airstrikes are proving counter-productive and the
Taliban is getting sympathy of the general public. Some, including Khalilzad,
have suggested that the presidential elections be postponed. But this is no
solution to peace. Elections must be held and whosoever assumes power must lead
the negotiations and peace should be restored under his command.
On the one hand, the Taliban remains highly trained, armed and
sheltered by Pakistan and sometimes even by Russia. It can attack several
locations simultaneously. On the other, the Afghan Government is quite
slow-moving in responding to the attacks by the Taliban. This mitigates the
credibility of the Government. Friendly countries must help strengthen the
Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF) as the force remains
ill-trained, ill-equipped, less motivated and is also poorly-paid. High
desertion rate in the ANDSF speaks volumes about the weaknesses of the force.
(The writer is member of the United
Services Institute of India and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)
SOUTH ASIA MONITOR
A Perspective on, from and of interest to the region
Powered by SPS
Society for Policy Studies
While Taliban are strengthening,
peace in Afghanistan can come only through negotiations
Washington
should press Pakistan to compel the Taliban to negotiate and reach a peaceful
solution. With Pakistan’s economy in the doldrums, potent pressure may
work, writes Jai Kumar Verma for South Asia Monitor
AUG 27, 2018
·
·
·
The beleaguered Afghan government has offered a ceasefire to the
Taliban, after the latter kidnapped about 200 bus passengers on 20th August in
the Northern Province of Kunduz. The Taliban released all civilians but carried
20 Afghan security personnel away. The ceasefire offer, welcomed by the US and
NATO forces, was rejected by Taliban commanders, who declared they would carry
on their fight against Afghan forces assisted by foreign troops. The Afghan
government claimed the Taliban released civilians because of operations
launched by security forces, in which seven insurgents were killed.
The Afghan government had also offered peace talks in February
2018, agreed for “unconditional” negotiations and agreed to recognise Taliban
as a legitimate political entity, but the Taliban declined to negotiate with
the Afghan government and offered to talk with US forces.
The emboldened Taliban also fired 30 rockets, from two different
locations, on the presidential palace when President Ashraf Ghani was
delivering his Eid-al-Adha message. Although Afghan military helicopters
destroyed both locations, killed four terrorists and arrested five insurgents,
this indicates that terrorists are also tightening their hold on Kabul.
The Taliban have increased attacks, bringing more territory
under their control and, in recent weeks, have attacked cities like Ghazni,
killing many security forces personnel and civilians.
Recent successes have made Taliban commanders overconfident.
Analysts claim that although Taliban are winning now, they have several
inherent weaknesses whereby they cannot completely defeat Afghan forces.
Taliban implement a primitive and extreme form of Islam, which
most Afghans do not wish to follow. Afghans want to use new technology, music,
and favour giving basic rights to females. Secondly, Taliban are ruthless and
slaughtered large number of civilians and government officials, especially
security forces personnel. They have resorted to daylight massacres, raids, surprise
attacks and bomb blasts. Thousands of Afghans have been killed in suicide
bomb blasts, while tens of thousands were crippled. The inhuman behaviour of
Taliban is disliked by common Afghans.
Thirdly, there is widespread corruption within Taliban groups.
Several are involved in drug cultivation and smuggling. Afghan youths have
become drug addicts because of increased drugs trade. Fourthly, the top Taliban
leadership is predominantly Pashtun, hence other ethnic groups, like the
Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazara are reluctant to support them. Finally, Taliban are
fully dependent on Pakistan and its Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agency
for training, finance, intelligence, weapons, communications equipment, shelter
for their families and safe haven to them after operations or when Afghan
security forces encounter them.
The Afghans hate Pakistan and claim that Islamabad is
responsible for the turmoil in the country. In 2016, Gallup and Broadcasting
Board of Governors conducted an opinion poll in which only 3.7 percent Afghans
favoured Pakistan while 62 percent backed India.
US-led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) forces are in
Afghanistan and President Trump has not announced any date for withdrawing the
troops, and it is likely that their numbers may increase. Ranged against NATO
troops, the Taliban may win battles but cannot win the war.
Approximately 350,000 soldiers of Afghan National Security
Forces (ANSF) are responsible for maintaining law and order and countering the
Taliban in war-torn Afghanistan. NATO forces often provide air support to ANSF
to counter Taliban onslaughts.
However, ANSF is unable to effectively counter the Taliban and
faces problems including rampant corruption, large-scale desertions, with
several ANSF personnel joining Taliban along with weapons. ANSF morale is very
low and, according to Afghanistan watchers, the ANSF has to replace people
because of causalities and desertions. The ANSF also lacks motivation to fight
the Taliban and is badly managed. The US has spent about $65 billion on ANSF, a
large portion on training and equipment, but the force is still ill-trained and
poorly equipped.
After being uprooted from Iraq and Syria, Islamic State of Iraq
and Syria (ISIS) are trying hard to establish themselves in Afghanistan and
Pakistan, as both countries are thoroughly radicalised. Hence, the ANSF has to
counter ISIS and the Taliban.
Afghan watchers claim that Taliban and several other insurgent
groups are getting assistance from the ISI. Numerous warnings and threats by
the US, especially the Donald Trump administration, have not worked. Pakistan
has not stopped assisting the Taliban and terrorist outfits like the Haqqani
network. ISI will continue assisting terrorists till it succeeds in
establishing a government of its choice in Kabul. The US should negotiate with
countries like Russia, China, India and even Iran.
With its innate weaknesses, the Taliban will not be able to
occupy Kabul, while the ANSF and US-led NATO troops must understand that,
despite efforts for over 15 years, they could not defeat the Taliban. The only
way to restore peace in Afghanistan is through negotiations. Washington should
press Pakistan to compel the Taliban to negotiate and reach some solution. With
Pakistan’s economy in the doldrums, potent pressure may work.
The Afghan government should also give some concessions to the
Taliban that controls large parts of the country. While Taliban may demand
enforcement of Islamic laws, withdrawal of foreign troops, etc, both parties
must know that peace can be restored only through negotiations.
(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of
USI and IDSA. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)
THE PIONEER
E-PAPER ▾
COLUMNISTS
LASTING
SOLUTION TO AFGHAN CRISIS
1
2
4
5
Ghani’s invitation to the
Taliban for peace talks is a last-ditch effort to establish peace in
war-torn Afghanistan. The need is to strengthen the
security forces and intelligence agencies
Afghanistan President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani took a bold step on
February 28 when he offered peaceful negotiations to the Taliban to put an end
to the internal strife that has continued since the past 16 years. He agreed to
give several concessions to the Taliban, including discussions about the
presence of foreign troops, release of prisoners, fresh elections, review of
the present Constitution, recognition to the Taliban as a lawful political
organisation. Besides, he also promised them passports and permission to open
offices in Kabul.
Ghani, who put forward the proposal at the Second Kabul Process
Conference for Peace and Security Cooperation where officials of 25 countries
had gathered to ascertain ways to end insurgency, also mentioned that
negotiations could be held in Kabul or at any other place.
The fact that Ghani, who always used words like “terrorists” and
“rebels” to refer to the Taliban, offered unconditional peace talks to them,
indicates that he is under pressure and has realised that he is in no position
to control or exterminate them. Taliban leaders acknowledged that they have
been facing pressure from friendly countries to come to the talking table. The
Afghan President renewed an offer of talks with Pakistan to participate in the
negotiations and said that friendly countries must influence Pakistan to
participate in the negotiations.
Meanwhile, forces of the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization
enhanced air strikes on terrorist hideouts in Pakistan to weaken their strength
so that they could come to the negotiating table. US drone attacks killed few
top terrorist leaders, including Mullah Fazlullah, leader of Pakistan’s
Taliban. Although bombardments damaged the terrorists’ bases, their control on
land was not minimised. They continued with their attacks on the Afghan
security forces and carried out terrorist activities not only in the suburbs
but also in Kabul.
Day by day, law and order situation is worsening and the Taliban
is capturing new areas. The Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) is in no
position to control the rising influence of terrorist outfits like the Islamic
State (IS). Besides, the ANSF is suffering from rampant corruption, forces are
ill-trained and weapons have become obsolete. The IS pays more wages to its
cadre than the ANSF. As a result, many soldiers have abandoned ANSF to join
terrorist outfits.
The Government in Afghanistan also announced the extension of a
unilateral ceasefire with the Taliban before its expiry on June 20. In a
televised interview, Ghani stated that his Government was ready for
“comprehensive negotiations” but terrorist outfits refused to extend the
ceasefire and made it clear that operations against the security forces would
resume. Several world leaders, including Saudi King Salman Abdulaziz, welcomed
Ghani’s decision to renew the ceasefire. Prime Minister Modi, while speaking at
the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, too appreciated President Ghani for
announcing a unilateral ceasefire.
Analysts are of the view that the Taliban feels that they are
winning and foreign forces are so fatigued that they will either go back or
their numbers will be slashed. As ANSF is in no position to counter them, they
would enhance their area of control. Hence, there is no need for them to
negotiate. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction also
confirmed that the control of the Government in Afghanistan has decreased since
2009 and the control of militants is on the rise.
Ghani is desperate to negotiate with the Taliban as the IS is
posed to increase its influence in Afghanistan. After the IS was uprooted from
Iraq and Syria, it is now trying hard to establish itself in Afghanistan and
Pakistan. It has constituted its arm in Afghanistan called the Islamic State of
Khorasan Province (ISKP). This means the establishment of the Islamic Caliphate
that will be governed by Shariat. The idea of Islamic Caliphate has attracted a
large number of fanatic Muslims who are in abundance in Afghanistan and
neighbouring Pakistan.
Several world powers consider that the growing influence of the IS
in Afghanistan will be detrimental to them as well as to world peace. The US
feels that if the IS becomes powerful in Afghanistan, the situation will become
worse than what it was when they were ruled by the Taliban. With a large
population of Shia Muslims, Iran has direct threat from the Salafi IS as they
allege that Shias are not true Muslims. Russia has a sizable Muslim population
and the IS will assist them in revolting against the Government. China is also
facing revolt in its largest administrative region, Xinjiang, where Uighur
Muslims are fighting for independence. The IS would certainly assist Uighurs in
their fight for the establishment of an independent Muslim country.
Pakistan, which is creating trouble in Afghanistan, does not want
the IS influence to increase as several terrorist outfits in Pakistan will
openly support the IS. Several Western countries too are against the IS
strengthening its base in Afghanistan as disenchanted Muslim youths in their
country can work as ‘lone wolves’.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping
held a two-day informal meeting at Wuhan in April this year. Apart from
taking several crucial decisions, they decided to launch joint economic
projects in war-ravaged Afghanistan.
The coming together of the two countries came as a major jolt to
Pakistan which diligently wants to keep India away from Kabul. Beijing’s
agreement to a joint project with India is indicative of the fact that China
accepts India’s justifiable role in Afghanistan.
It is expected that both India and China will start joint projects
in other counties as well. Afghanistan is just the beginning. China has always
wanted to increase its influence in Afghanistan. For the first time Beijing
tried this with Islamabad but because the latter was involved in carrying out
terrorist activities in Afghanistan and there were several unmistakable
evidences that sinister Inter-Services Intelligence was assisting diverse
terrorist outfits, especially the Haqqani network, it was not possible.
China also held a trilateral meeting of Foreign Ministers of
Afghanistan, Pakistan and China in 2017 but Beijing realised that India was a
better partner as it had a positive image in Afghanistan. If India and China
work together in Afghanistan it may bring peace to the war-torn nation. China
will also force Pakistan not to assist and shelter terrorist outfits involved
in carrying out terrorist activities in Afghanistan.
Watchers in Afghanistan claim that the Taliban is not only divided,
disjointed and faction-ridden but also fully undisciplined. Hence, not only is
negotiation difficult but implementation of the agreement looks seemingly
impossible.
he Afghan Government must strengthen the ANSF and equip it with
latest weapons. The intelligence department must be reinforced and it should be
able to gather actionable intelligence. Officers and staff should be highly
motivated although it is difficult to get actionable intelligence in disturbed
areas. Security forces can break the backbone of the terrorist outfits if
they get intelligence at the right time. If ANSF becomes stronger, the Afghan
Government’s dependence on foreign forces will be reduced. This is the need of
the hour.
(The writer is a member of
United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and
Analysis. Views expressed are personal)
AAKROSH
ASIAN JOURNAL ON
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS
April 2018 Volume 21 Number 79
Islamic State is growing in strength in Afghanistan
Jai Kumar Verma
The Islamic State(IS), which lost ground in Iraq and Syria because of
attacks by multiple forces, is trying to get established in Afghanistan and
Pakistan as both these countries are thoroughly radicalized. The formation of Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISK-P) was a master stroke which attracted a
large number of Muslim fanatics. Initially ,the idea of establishing an Islamic
Caliphate beseeched the imprudent, the
semi-literate and the madrassas- educated Muslim youths, but soon, educated but
disenchanted Muslims also joined the outfit. The leaders of IS met the
influential persons of various terrorist outfits of Afghanistan. The IS made alliances with few groups while encouraged other
organisations and fighters to join the outfit. The rebels of diverse outfits,
including Tehrik-i-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP), Afghan Taliban, Pakistan Taliban, Al
Qaeda, terrorists of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and fighters from
foreign countries, also joined ISK-P. The ideology of Islamic is based on
Salafi Jihadism and Wahhabism. The outfit declared that it would establish
Islamic Caliphate of the early days of Islam hence all Muslims must pledge
allegiance to the IS. Jihadi Salafism is supported not only by terrorist
outfits but also by a large number of scholars, media houses and websites. The Afghan
Taliban and other terrorist outfits are giving onerous resistance to the IS as
these outfits have family, ethnic and tribal ties while the IS is considered a
foreign entity. The influence of the IS and other terrorist outfits cannot be
mitigated unless US led forces destroy safe heavens of terrorists in Pakistan. The
Afghan government should also take drastic actions to reform the present corrupt
and sluggish bureaucracy , especially The Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF). The intelligence organisations must be
galvanised so that they collect actionable intelligence.
The Islamic State (IS), which was once the most powerful, dreadful and
financially strong terrorist outfit, was devastated by multiple forces,
including United States- led coalition forces. US-supported Iraqi forces, Syrian
forces assisted by Russia and Iran, Iran-aided Popular Mobilization Forces and
Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces. The outfit, in its glorious days, was
controlling about 78,000 sq KMs of land where 10 million people were residing but
now lost all the territory, and its chief, Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi is either
killed or on the run and in no position to command the outfit. (1)
The IS grew rapidly and became a
potent threat to numerous countries of the world ,including Afghanistan,
Pakistan, The United States, Russia and Iran, just to name few. The IS, after
having been routed out from Syria and Iraq, is trying to establish itself in Afghanistan
and Pakistan as both these countries are thoroughly radicalised and it is easy
to get foothold in these countries. Iran and Russia, which have sizable Sunni populations
were scared because of rising IS influence in the region. The United States and
other Western countries wanted to obliterate the IS as these countries have
also disgruntled Muslim populations and few out of them had gone to Syria and
Iraq to join the IS and with passage of time, these hardened terrorists would
incite several other countrymen to join the outfit. Not only this, as the IS is
vanquished in Iraq and Syria, the nationals of Western world who had gone to Iraq
and Syria to fight from the side of the IS would return back to their
motherland. These cynical terrorists would bring fundamentalism and extremism
with them and will create a problem for the security agencies. Countries whose
nationals had gone to fight in favour of the IS must chalk out a comprehensive
plan to handle these Jihadists when they return back from Iraq and Syria.
The IS has put lot of anti-west and
pro-Islamic literature on the internet, which radicalise the crestfallen Muslim
youths, and few of them became ‘lone wolves’ and killed several innocent
citizens. The problem of lone wolves is very grave as it is difficult to spot
them before they perform as they carryout terrorist acts alone and do not take
assistance from others.
Formation of Islamic State-Khorasan Province
The formation of (ISK-P) in January
2015 by the Islamic State, which was previously known as The Islamic State of
Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), was a master stroke which attracted large number of
Muslim fanatics. Initially, the idea of establishing an Islamic Caliphate
appealed to the imprudent, semi-literate, Madrassa-educated Muslim youths who
thought that once Islamic Caliphate comes into existence, all their all
tribulations would be over and Muslims would rule the Caliphate according to
Shariat, which is an Islamic law and mentions how to behave in every aspect of
life. The IS is also strengthening itself in Afghanistan so that it can attack
Russia as well as US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) troops in
Afghanistan. (2)
The Islamic State propagated the
formation of ISK-P in Afghanistan as well as in contiguous areas in Pakistan.
Not only this, leaders of the IS met the influential persons of various
terrorist outfits of Afghanistan and stressed that the terrorist outfits should
join the ISK-P. The IS continuously changed its strategy and adopted pragmatic
policies ; consequently its influence increased rapidly and, at several places
it surpassed the Taliban. The IS with few groups made the alliances, while
encouraged other groups and fighters to join the outfit. The rebels of diverse
outfits including Tehrik-i-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP),the Afghan Taliban, the
Pakistan Taliban, Al Qaeda, terrorists of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
and fighters from foreign countries also joined ISK-P. Terrorists of Al Tawhid
Brigade, Ansar ul-Khilafat Wal-Jihad, Jundullah, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al-Alami and
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar also started supporting the IS. Mangal Bagh Afridi, of
Lashkar-e-Islam (LeI) also established cordial relations withthe IS. Haji Daud
Mehsud, previous chief of TTP, also joined the IS, which enhanced its following
and influence. A faction of the Afghan
Taliban, led by Mullah Rasool ,also declared its allegiance to the IS, which
made the group more powerful. Although
the alliances from different terrorists’ factions in Pakistan were woolly , these
alliances have grave impact on ISK-P in Afghanistan also, as the Durrand line
does not obstruct the linkage between both countries. Secondly, the IS also got
hold of the weaponry of these terrorist outfits. (3)
Hafiz Saed Khan, former TTP leader,
was appointed as its president, while Mullah Abdul Rauf Aliza, who was an
Afghan Taliban leader, became the deputy leader of the outfit. In this way, the
IS leadership appointed Chief from Pakistan’s most powerful terrorist
organisation while the deputy chief was from an Afghan terrorist outfit. Hence,
the organisation could increase its influence on terrorist organisations of
both countries. Nevertheless, Aliza was killed in 2015, while Saeed was eliminated
in an air strike in July 2016. (4)
Abdul Rahim Muslim Dost, a well-known
Salafi of Kunar province enhanced the influence of the IS in Kunar and Nuristan
provinces of Afghanistan. Saeed Khan took advantage of the ground prepared by
Abdul Rahim in Kunar and Nangarhar and a recruited large number of Afghans and
Pakistanis who took shelter in these areas , as Pakistan Army had launched an
operation in North Waziristan. In the Same way, Mullah Abdul Rauf recruited
Afghans from Southern provinces. As the IS had money power at that time, they
recruited Jihadists from more than 11 states, including Logar ,which is near
capital city of Kabul.
Ideology of the IS
The ideology of ‘The Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant’ or ‘the Islamic State’ ,which is also known as Daesh, is based on
Salafi Jihadism and Wahhabism. The outfit declared that it would establish the
Islamic Caliphate of early days of Islam hence all Muslims must pledge
allegiance to the IS. Jihadi-Salafism is supported not only by terrorist
outfits but large number of scholars, media houses and websites. Numerous
persons propagated Salafism in social media, and it was the reason that the
outfit gained popularity all over the world in a short time.
The Islamic State believes in
stringent application of Islamic law and emphasizes that all Muslims must
follow the Quran and Sunnah in letter and spirit. The outfit is totally against
Shias and believes that all non-Muslims and persons oppose to the ideology of
the IS must be executed. IS ideologues claim that a large number of Muslims,
predominantly Shias, are not following Islam truthfully and hence they must be
punished. There are several cases, especially in Afghanistan and Pakistan,
where the IS killed Shias mercilessly. The IS, which believes in the
extermination of all non- Muslims through Jihad, is against democracy, freedom
of speech and equal rights to women. The outfit claims that by establishing the
Islamic Caliphate all over the world, it would stop the affliction of Muslims
in several countries including Afghanistan, China, Somalia, Myanmar, Russia,
India, and Sri Lanka.
The IS advocates mass killings,
brutality, beheadings, shootings and burning of caged prisoners with ulterior
motive to instill fear among fence-sitters and rivals. It also gave a feeling
of revenge to its followers who had perceived feelings of injustices done
towards Muslims by persons of other religions. It has also generated fear among
its followers so that they dare not work against the outfit. (5)
Recruitment By the ISK-P
Afghanistan
is one of the poorest countries of the world and there is widespread poverty in
rural as well as urban areas. However, the condition of rural areas is
precarious and according to estimates, 42 percent population of Afghanistan
lives below poverty line. The unemployment rate is escalating and it is 40
percent at present. The IS took advantage of the situation and recruited large
number of unemployed Afghan youths. The IS is against cultivation and smuggling of poppy in the areas
it controls, and this has further enhanced the unemployment. The IS is paying
about three times of the government salary, and hence there are numerous cases
when soldiers of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) deserted the force and joined
the IS along with weapons. (6).
The ISK-P has distributed leaflets
and pamphlets written in Dari and Pashto languages explaining the ideology of ISK-P
and eulogizing the terrorist acts carried out by the outfit. The IS literature
also contained the photographs of IS
terrorists carrying black flags and wearing local Afghani and Pakistani
attires. The IS extensively uses the internet to propogate its ideology. It
also distributed audios and videos in which it has appealed that all Muslims
should join the outfit and strengthen the hands of Baghdadi, who is fighting
for the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate. The literature also appealed to
oppose Taliban and support ISK-P.
After capturing the area, the IS also
compels the Imams of the mosques to spread the ideology of the outfit and
persuade the youths of the area to join the IS. The outfit propagates against
Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban and discredits those small outfits which refuse to
align with it . The IS also involved in the smuggling of timber, and it
extracts protection money from businessmen of the area. (7)
The IS , eager to establish itself in
Afghanistan spent lot of money in purchase and distribution of foreign arms,
laptops, vehicles ,etc. the IS also paid remuneration to its cadres as well as
to their family members. Analysts mention that large number of volunteers
joined the IS not because of ideology but as it paid handsome money to
unemployed youths. Foreign warriors also came to Afghanistan and joined IS with
their families as they were overwhelmed with the ideology of the IS and about
establishment of the ISK-P.
The IS, after making a stronghold in
Jowzjan province of Northern Afghanistan, is now settling its warriors ,with
their families, in the areas it controls. Fighters from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan
and Chechnya and African countries , including Sudan have also settled there.
There are also reports that IS fighters from Western countries, including
France, United Kingdom are also residing in this remote area. The outfit has
taken control of the area and also recruiting local Afghans there. The outfit
is propagating that it is the only force which can stand against Western powers,
especially US, and can defend Sunni Muslims from the onslaught of Shias
assisted by Iran. The IS has defeated
Taliban at several places in Afghanistan and evicted them from their areas of
influence.
Prominent Taliban leaders, including
Mullah Sufu Qayum, Maulavi Assadullah and Mullah Nemat Mufti, joined the IS along
with their followers which enhanced the strength of the IS and reduced the
influence of the Taliban.
Besides Afghanistan and Pakistan ,
the IS is also strengthening itself in Libya, the Sahara and Nigeria. But
analysts mention that it is easy for the IS to establish its base in
Afghanistan and remote areas of Pakistan because of rampant poverty, lack of
education and total radicalisation of the area.
Afghanistan officials claim that the
outfit has more than 3000 foreign terrorists also; nonetheless most of the
foreign terrorists are from Pakistan and Uzbekistan. They further assert that
the number of IS fighters would increase after the complete fall of Iraq and
Syria as most of the fighters instead of going back to their home countries may
reorganize in Afghanistan to continue their fight for the establishment of an Islamic
Caliphate. Besides foreign fighters, several disgruntled, criminals and
unemployed fanatic Afghans and Pakistanis have also joined the outfit. (8)
In 2017, Ghulam Ghous Kumar was
arrested, who recruited more than 130 persons for the Islamic State in Punjab
province especially in Lahore area. He was recruiting on behest of Nabeel Ahmed
,of Afghanistan. The ISK-P launched recruitment drive in educational
institutions and also recruited through mosques.
According to reports, 300 Afghans
were recruited by the ISK-P from Darzab district and were trained by the outfit
in carrying out terrorist activities. Umar Mohajir, an ISK-P commander, recruited several young
Afghans from Jowzjan and Sar-i-Pul provinces.
Islamic State Influence is increasing in Afghanistan
The influence of the IS is escalating
in different parts of Afghanistan and neighbouring areas of Pakistan, and the
terrorist outfit successfully carried out terrorist acts in capital city of
Kabul, Jalalabad, Ghor and Qushtipa, just to name a few. In these terrorist
attacks, more than 10000 Afghan security personnel were killed while about 16,000
were injured in 2017 alone. A United Nations survey mentioned that in the first
nine months of 2017 , about 10 Afghans lost their lives every day. The IS also
carried out terrorist actions in Pakistan mainly at Peshawar, Quetta, Karachi,
Khuzdar, Sehwan, Charsada etc.
Afghan security forces are failed to
curb the growing clout of the IS in the country because of unbridled corruption,
outdated weapons, inadequate training and lack of conviction to fight the
ideologically committed IS fighters. Besides these problems, Afghan society is a
tribal society and tribes have age-old differences, may be because of traditions
and land and water disputes. Besides tribal disputes, the IS was also able to augment Shia-Sunni
differences. IS suicide bombers blasted Shia mosques and also not spared the Dargahs’
(religious places) of Sufi saints. The outfit has destroyed churches. In
December 2017, ISKP suicide bombers
killed nine Christians and injured many more when they attacked Bethel Memorial
Methodist Church in Quetta. On 28th December 2017, the ISK-P suicide
bombers attacked the Shia Cultural Centre in Kabul and killed more than 40
persons and injured even much more. Again in October 2017, ISK-P terrorists
killed more than 30 Shias after attacking a Shia mosque in Dashte-e-Barchi,
near Kabul. Attacks on Shia mosques has increased animosity between Shias and
Sunnis, and terrorists of few anti Shia terrorist outfits like Sipah-i-Sahaba and its offshoots,
Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, Jundawalah etc. have joined the IS. People have no faith in the deteriorated
judicial system, and the tribal Chiefs who occupied powerful posts in the administration
had only helped their families or to their tribes. (9)
The Iranian Intelligence Minister
rightly pointed out that although the IS is vanquished in Iraq and Syria and
lost the areas it controlled , it did not surrender the weapons it possessed.
Hence the outfit remains a big threat to
world peace. The outfit is trying to establish itself in Afghanistan and
Pakistan as both the countries are radicalized and the IS has already lot of sway
in the area. (10)
The IS, which is anti Shia, will also
establish itself in the region where Sunni extremist organisations like Sipah-i-Sahaba,
Lashkar-i-Jhangvi and Jundawalah, have
influence as these organisations are anti Shia and claim that Shias are not
true Muslims and they should be exterminated. These terrorist outfits carried
out several terrorist activities in which Shias were slaughtered.
The IS would also try to augment its
influence in Russia and Iran as both these countries have sizable disgruntled
Sunni Muslim Populations and they will like to join the IS. Not only this, the
Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang province are fighting to break away from China would
also welcome the IS in their area. Islamic terrorists from Pakistan are
assisting Uyghur secessionists but they were suppressed mercilessly by China.
If the IS occupies Afghanistan and some portion of Pakistan the Islamic
fanatics would certainly render more assistance to Uyghur Muslims in their
freedom struggle. Hence a large area will come under the influence of the IS
which may be detrimental for the world peace.
The death of powerful Taliban leader
Mullah Omar in Pakistan also helped the ISK-P to strengthen itself in
Afghanistan. Mullah Omar, who had a bounty of USD 10 million on his head,
worked as an adhesive between various Taliban factions , and his orders were
obeyed ;religiously’ by the Taliban. The Deobandi seminaries ,which always
propagated against Shias , also helped the ISK-P in its recruitment drive as
both Deobandi and ISK-P profess to eliminate the Shias. the ISK-P vigorously
used social media to propagate its ideology in recruitment drive. (11)
Foreign terrorists joining the ISK-P
The idea of the ISK-P lured not only to
young uneducated Muslims of Afghanistan and Pakistan buteven educated but
disenchanted Muslims of foreign countries ,especially of France and Algeria
came to Afghanistan and joined the outfit. Several foreigners who were fighting
in Iraq and Syria had to escape from there after the weakening of the IS and now
settled in Darzab and Qosh Tepa districts of Jowzjan province. According to
reports more than 40 foreigners of the Islamic State were recruiting local
Afghans for ISK-P while more than 200 foreign terrorists were staying in Bibi
Mariam village in District Darzeb.
Problems faced by the IS in Afghanistan
The IS, which is trying hard to
establish in Afghanistan is facing onerous resistance from the Afghan Taliban
as they have local family and ethnic
ties and also get support from their tribes while the IS is considered a
foreign entity and in several areas locals gave tough resistance to the IS in
its recruitment drive. (12)
Its lack of local roots, waning
recruitment, and consistent losses on the battlefield have created numerous
obstacles to the IS’s ascent in the region. The Islamic State has so far failed
to recreate its success in Syria and Iraq and could not establish a stronghold
in Afghanistan. Its attempts to expand into a country that has hosted both the Taliban
and al-Qaeda strongholds for decades were rebuffed, confining its current
presence to sparse pockets in eastern Afghanistan. The group’s brutality and
inflexible ideology alienated most local Afghans and caused defections within
its own ranks. It is losing ground from a combination of Taliban pushback,
Afghan security force operations, and U.S.-targeted airstrikes. In March 2016,
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani declared that Afghanistan would be a ‘graveyard’
for the Islamic State. The ultimate demise of the IS in Afghanistan may still
be too early to predict.
The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI)
which wants to attain strategic depth in Afghanistan, is also assisting diverse
terrorist outfits, including Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network. The ISI not
only provide financial assistance but also give safe sanctuaries in Pakistan
after the Taliban and Haqqani network carryout terrorist activity in
Afghanistan. Both these outfits are working against the IS.
Analysts declare that Iranian intelligence
agencies also assist Shia terrorist outfits so that the influence of IS can be
restrained as establishment of the ISK-P is dangerous for Iran.
Way Forward
The rising influence of the IS in
Afghanistan and Pakistan is precarious for world peace; hence US led NATO forces should
not leave the country unless they vanquish the Islamic State; otherwise the IS
will propagate it, as their victory and will enhance its influence in nearby
countries especially Pakistan, Bangladesh and, will create problems in India
too.
The world community cannot leave this
region on the mercy of terrorists because very soon, they will occupy large
part of Afghanistan and also restive province of Balochistan, Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Waziristan and Karachi and even some portion
of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The US, the lone super power as well
as forces of several other countries have not managed to wipe out terrorist
outfits from Afghanistan although efforts were made from last about 17 years to
annihilate terrorist outfits. These countries have not succeed as all of them
are working with different agendas and no joint operations have ever been launched. If forces of all countries including
the US, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and China work together, terrorist organisations
can be wiped-out from Afghanistan.
US-led NATO troops killed Abdul Hasib,
Chief of the outfit in July 2017, after a gunfight in Nangarhar province. The US
also dropped largest and most powerful non-nuclear bomb, on Achin district of
Nangarhar province, in April and killed more than 90 combatants of the IS. In
February & March 2017, US led NATO troops carried out more than 400 air
raids on the hideouts of the IS in Afghanistan but the influence of the IS is
not decreasing. (13)
Nevertheless, terrorism and the
influence of diverse terrorist organisations in Afghanistan cannot be
eradicated unless the US and other forces do not control Pakistan, which has
emerged as epicenter of terrorism. Pakistan , which has waged a low-intensity
war against India and wants to achieve strategic depth in Afghanistan has
constituted several terrorist outfits in the country. The sinister ISI has also
created a big terrorist infrastructure where the terrorists are trained in
weapon handling, assembling of improvised explosive devices (IEDs),
selection and reconnaissance of the target and carrying of terrorist activities.
The US administration, which has lost
several American soldiers and already spent billions of dollars in Afghanistan,
has understood that they cannot overcome terrorist outfits unless Pakistan
stops providing them safe-havens. At present, terrorist outfits after
committing terrorist acts in Afghanistan, return back to their hiding places,
which are located in Pakistan. Washington has shelved the $ 1 billion in
assistance for military purchases and $900 million aid for counter terrorism to
Pakistan. Nonetheless, suspension of aid is too little and too late and
Pakistan will not discontinue assistance or stop harbouring of terrorists.
China, which claims it to be all
weather friend of Pakistan, has already offered financial and other types of
assistance to Pakistan as the latter is fulfilling its objectives. Islamabad-assisted
terrorists are attacking US-led NATO forces hence USA is bleeding in
Afghanistan while the economic progress of India is hampered because diverse
ISI-assisted diverse terrorist outfits are carrying out terrorist activities in
India, especially in Jammu & Kashmir. The analysts also mention that China
does not give financial assistance but it gives loan and that too at high
interest rates to the smaller countries and when these countries fail to repay
the loan, China occupies strategic projects in the country.
Sri Lanka is the latest victim: it had to handover Hambantota port on a 99
years lease in December 2017, to two new Chinese companies namely Hambantota
International Port Group (HIPG) and Hambantota International Port Services
(HIPS). The holding company of both these companies is China Merchants Port
Holdings Company. Although Sri Lanka promised that it will not be used against
India, Hambantota is located at southern coast and it will give dangerous
access to China on Indian Ocean. China has signed a free trade agreement with
Maldives and also opened an overseas military base at Djibouti. Analysts claim
that China, which has already taken over control of Gwadar Port, will sooner or
later occupy some arable land in Pakistan as Chinese population is more than
the cultivable land available in China. China has emerged as the biggest
importer of food items in the world. (14)
Pakistan is radicalized up to the
extent that it is difficult for any government to take stringent actions
against the terrorist outfits as several of them were created and are assisted
by the military controlled ISI. Secondly, the roots of Madrassas culture is
very deep in the country and most of the terrorists are the product of
Madrassas. According to a report there are more than 45,000 Madrassas in
Pakistan of diverse faith and beliefs. Large number of Madrassas enhance
Islamic fundamentalism in the country.civilian or military government cannot
take action against Madrassas who are responsible for the spread of terrorism
in Pakistan.
The Pakistan Government was failed to
take actions against the terrorist outfits. hence it is essential that the
world community led by the US should destroy the training centers and exterminate
leaders of terrorist outfits as well as Pakistan military personnel who are
training these enemies of mankind. the
IS or any terrorist outfit in Afghanistan cannot be ruined unless the
hideouts in Pakistan are destroyed.
The role of intelligence
organisations in curbing the terrorism cannot be over-emphasised. The
intelligence organisations must provide actionable intelligence so that ANSF
can plan and exterminate terrorists. Hence it is essential that Afghan
government galvanize intelligence organisations and only well trained and
dedicated officers and staff are deployed in collection of intelligence. First
few batches of intelligence officers can be sent to India for training and
later, some Indian trained intelligence officers can be sent to Afghanistan for
training their personnel. After sometime foreign trained Afghan intelligence
officers can train their officers and staff. In intelligence, only collection
is not enough; it must be disseminated within shortest time so that requisite
action can be taken. (15)
The political parties must broaden
its base and their leaders should mingle with electorates. The election
procedure should be more transparent so that the faith of public is restored.
Government should try to provide basic amenities to public even in remote areas
,and land reforms should be implemented.
The Afghan government should also
take drastic actions to reform the present corrupt and sluggish bureaucracy. It
must generate employment and there should be overall economic development of
the country. The literacy rate of Afghanistan is one of the poorest in the
world and sincere efforts should be made to enhance the job-oriented education.
The Government should make genuine efforts to redress legitimate grievances of
the public. It is important that the
masses inculcate faith in capability of the government. Only then would they
relinquish terrorist outfits and will join the main stream. At present, the public
feel that although the IS is atrocious, primitive and a foreign organisation
but still it is better than the dishonest government.
Notes and Reference
(1) BBC News. Islamic State and the crisis in Iraq and
Syria in maps Middle East Section 28 April, 2017
(2) Ronald Tiersky ‘Defeating the Islamic State: Advice
from Sun Tsu’ Huffpost The World Post
(3) Lauren McNally, Marvin G.
Weinbaum, Antoun Issa and Alex Amiral
‘Examining the Islamic State’s Threat in
Afghanistan’ Middle East Institute
May 25, 2016
(4) Wikipedia “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant –
Khorasan Province”
(5) Jai Kumar Verma Islamic State loosing in Syria and Iraq but
increasing its influence worldwide
(6) Wikipedia Poverty in Afghanistan
(7) Op cit, n. 3
(8)
Jeff Seldin ‘Afghan
Officials: Islamic State Fighters Finding Sanctuary in Afghanistan
Voice Of America 18, November 2017
(9) Jai Kumar Verma ‘Islamic State strengthening in Afghanistan’ Aviation &
Defence Universe 02 February 2018
(10)
Ibid
(11)
BBC
News “Mullah Omar: Taliban leader “died in Pakistan in 201329 July 2015
(12)
Op cit, n. 7
(13)
Op cit, n. 5
(14)
Ankit Panda ‘Sri Lanka Formally Hands over Hambantota Port to Chinese firms
on 99-year lease’Diplomat,
11 December, 2017 https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/sri-lanka-formally-hands-over-hambantota-port-to-chinese-firms-on-99-year-lease/
(15)
Anant
Mishra.’ Strengthening Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security: Is it
equipped to Counter “ Emerging Threats?’ Small Wars Journal.1 March, 2018
THE PIONEER
IS AND
ITS DISASTROUS INFLUENCE IN AFGHANISTAN
1
2
3
4
5
After losing the war in Iraq
and Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the new target for the Islamic State.
While the world must unite to destroy its bases, the Afghan Government must
take the lead
After uprooting from Iraq and Syria, the
Islamic State (IS) is trying to establish itself in Afghanistan and Pakistan as both these countries are
totally radicalised and, hence, it will be easier for them to set their bases
over there. The creation of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISK-P) by the IS
fascinated large number of semi-literate, fanatic and disenchanted Muslim
youths all over the world who came to Afghanistan and joined the outfit. The
ISK-P earned the support of not just extremist Muslims but several Muslim
writers, thinkers and intellectuals also extended their assistance.
ISK-P contacted leaders of various
terrorist outfits in Afghanistan and Pakistan and persuaded them to join ISK-P.
The organisation also made alliances with few groups while encouraging smaller
groups to amalgamate in the IS. Besides these groups, dissidents of numerous
terrorist outfits, especially of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Afghan and
Pakistan Taliban, Al Qaeda, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan joined the IS. Haji
Mehsud, former Chief of TTP, and several important Afghan Taliban leaders,
particularly Mullah Nemat Mufti, Mullah Sufu Qayum and Mullah Rasool also
joined the IS with their followers.
The outfit is against Shias and
alleges that they “pretend” to be Muslims and should be purged even before
non-Muslims. Hence, fighters from anti-Shia organisations like Jundullah,
Lashlar-e-Jhangvi al Alami, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan also joined the IS.
ISK-P announced Hafiz Saeed
Khan as its leader while Mullah Abdul Rauf Aliza as its deputy leader. Hafiz
Saeed was from Pakistan and leader of TTP, while Mullah Aliza was an Afghan
national. In this way, the IS inculcated its sway both in Pakistan as well as
in Afghanistan and fighters from both these countries joined the outfit. Saeed
was killed in 2016 while Aliza lost life in 2015 but both of them worked hard
to popularise ISK-P.
Afghanistan being a poor
country and unemployment rate at about 40 per cent, it was easy for ISK-P to
recruit Afghans. They were paying more than double the amount paid by the
Afghan Government. Hence, several personnel of the Afghan National Security
Forces (ANSF) joined the IS along with their weapons. Large number of Afghans
are uneducated and are ready to sacrifice their lives in the name of Islam.
This is why more and more people are joining the outfit.
ISK-P distributed literature in
Dari and Pashto languages, denouncing the Taliban and Al Qaeda and mentioning
that the IS is the only organisation which can save Muslims from persecution
and establish Islamic rule based on Shariat. In literature, the IS also
mentioned about several terrorist activities carried by the outfit.
Large number of foreign
fighters mainly from Pakistan, Tajikistan, Chechnya and Uzbekistan also joined
the IS. Besides these countries, fighters from African countries and European
countries, especially from France, Algeria and the UK, are also residing in
Afghanistan. Analysts claim that the number of foreign fighters in Afghanistan
are more than 3,000 and it will further enhance once the IS is completely
ousted from Iraq and Syria as most foreign fighters would not return back to
their native soil but will reach Afghanistan to reinforce the IS.
The IS successfully carried out
several terrorist attacks in the recent past in different places in
Afghanistan. On January 20, terrorists laid siege into Kabul’s Intercontinental
Hotel and killed more than 20 persons, including four foreigners. On January
27, terrorists attacked with an ambulance full of explosives in Kabul in which
death toll crossed 100. Again, on January 28, few terrorists attacked an Army
post near military academy, Kabul, and killed 11 soldiers. Few days after,
terrorists also attacked an NGO office in Jalalabad. ISK-P also killed 41 Shias
in a cultural centre while more than 150 persons were exterminated in Kabul.
The IS also successfully carried out terrorist acts in Ghor, Qushtapa and other
places.
Analysts claim that terrorists
killed more than 10,000 Afghan security personnel and injured more than 15,000
persons in 2017 alone. This year appears to be bloodier and more security
personnel and civilians would be killed if effective measures are not taken by
the Afghan Government and the US-led NATO troops. ANSF is unable to control the
mounting pressure by terrorists, especially the IS, because of rampant
corruption, lack of will to fight, old and rusted weapons, unsatisfactory training
and no actionable intelligence. In fact, the intelligence machinery of
terrorists is working better than the intelligence setup of ANSF.
The Afghan Government is losing
ground and according to analysts, about seventy per cent of the area is under
control of terrorists including, the IS. Besides Afghanistan, quite a few areas
of Pakistan abutting Afghanistan, including Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA), Waziristan, Balochistan among others, are also under the control of
terrorists. Recent surge in terrorist activities also indicate that only aerial
bombings would not wipe out terrorist outfits and there will be no use
negotiating with them as terrorist outfits utilise time of negotiations in
regrouping themselves.
The strength of NATO troops must
be enhanced as 15,000 troops would fail to control various terrorist outfits in
the country. If NATO troops leave Afghanistan before eradicating the IS, it
will be disastrous not only for the region but for the whole world. The world
powers, which jointly or separately ruined the IS in Iraq and Syria, should
work together to destroy it from Afghanistan. Hence, it is essential that all
world powers opposed to the IS work together to destroy it permanently. The US
dropped most powerful non-nuclear bomb in Achin district in April 2017 and
destroyed weapons, tunnels and killed more than 90 IS fighters. It conducted
more than 400 air raids in February and March 2017 against IS strongholds but
air raids are not enough. Land forces are required for area domination.
Terrorist activities in
Afghanistan cannot be curbed unless Pakistan, which is providing safe heaven to
various terrorist outfits, is controlled. Although US President Donald Trump
has suspended $1.9 billion aid to Pakistan but it is not enough as China has
promised to compensate. NATO troops should bombard the infrastructure created
by sinister Inter-Services Intelligence to train and shelter the terrorists.
The NATO troops should not only destroy terrorists’ hideouts but should also
exterminate their trainers. Leaders of terrorist outfits should also be
eliminated either by bombardments or by special operations. Pakistan Government
cannot take action against terrorist outfits as their leaders have mass
following but NATO troops can destroy them.
The Afghan Government must
galvanise ANSF and personnel should be well-trained and must be provided with
latest weapons. Working conditions and salary structure should be improved and
feeling of patriotism should be inculcated. The intelligence network of the country
is in shambles, no security forces can trounce terrorist outfits unless the
intelligence organisations provide pin-pointed actionable intelligence. The
Afghan Government should send intelligence personnel to India so that they are
methodically trained in collection, analysis and timely dissemination of
intelligence.
The Government should take
stringent action against corrupt officials and rectify genuine problems of the
masses. The Government should also try to win the confidence of the masses
through launching poverty elimination and employment generation schemes.
Leaders of political parties must contact the masses and broaden their base.
The election system should be honest and transparent so that the public does
not give any importance to the allegations of defeated candidates about the use
of malpractices by the winning candidates.
(The writer is member of United
Services Institute of India, and the Institute for Defence Studies and
Analyses)
http://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/islamic-state-strengthening-in-afghanistan/
AL
BOARD
Aviation & Defence Universe
Solution Of Afghan Problem
Lies In Nailing “Terroristan”
By
JK Verma
New
Delhi. 15 October 2017. US President Donald J Trump
threatened Pakistan that it must change its policies. “No partnership can
survive” if the country is “harbouring militants and terrorists who target US
service members and officials.” Trump also stated that India should give more
economic aid and developmental assistance to Afghanistan and can play
significant role in the region.
On August 21, 2017 US President Donald Trump announced a stringent
strategy for South Asia especially for Afghanistan and Pakistan. He clarified
that there will be no early retreat as in that case terrorists would gain
stronghold in Afghanistan and the sacrifice of the troops would go waste.
Therefore US must provide men and armaments so that US led NATO troops fight to
win.
He also mentioned that at present “20 US designated foreign
terrorist organisations are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan” which is “the
highest concentration in any region anywhere in the world”. He clearly
stated that US and its allies would defeat these terrorist outfits as they are
major threat to world peace and tranquility. He also mentioned that “Pakistan
often gives safe heaven” to the terrorists.
Trump in his hard hitting speech stated that he will neither
announce any schedule for the eradication of terrorism nor will disclose the
number of troops US will depute in Afghanistan. He clarified that “we are not
nation building again. We are killing terrorists.”
Operation Enduring Freedom which commenced on October 7, 2011 by
United States in Afghanistan, after al Qaeda attacks of September 11, 2001, is
still continuing. The strength of terrorist outfits is far from depleting and
at present they control about 40 percent area of Afghanistan. United
Nations claimed that the death toll in last few months was highest in last
eight years.
At one point of time the number of US led NATO forces equipped
with latest weaponry swelled up to 100,000 but they could not wipe out
terrorist outfits. More than 2326 US soldiers and 1173 contractors were
killed up to September 2015. 453 British armed forces personnel also lost their
lives between 2001 and 2015. The number of grievously hurt was much larger and
US spent more than USD 1 trillion in Afghanistan.
According
to latest estimates about 100000 Afghan civilians were killed in last 16 years.
On May 31 about 150 civilians were killed in a terrorist
attack in Kabul. There are large number of deaths of Afghan security forces,
civilians, women and children because Taliban use homemade bombs. Large numbers
of Afghans were also killed in bombings by US as well as by Afghan forces. In
June 2017 US conducted about 389 aerial attacks in the country.
Although US lost so many lives and spent huge amount but it cannot
leave Afghanistan unless the major terrorist outfits are eliminated as it will
again become the safe-haven of terrorists and there can be more attacks on US
and other countries akin to 9/11. Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K) is
strengthening in Afghanistan and it successfully carried out attacks on security
forces. IS-K which considers Shias as not true Muslims is successful in
widening the gulf between Shias and Sunnis by carrying out terrorist attacks on
Shias.
Several disgruntled fighters from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
Afghan Taliban, anti Shia outfits of Pakistan and Afghanistan, fanatic Muslims
of quite a few countries who dream to establish Islamic State of Khorasan are
joining IS-K. Islamic State (IS) is losing ground in Syria and Iraq hence
leaders of IS also desire to establish their headquarters in another country
and radicalised Afghanistan is most suited place. IS-K also controls few areas
in Pakistan and when US and Afghan security forces launch operations against
them they take shelter in their hide-outs in Pakistan. Hence it is not feasible
to wipe out terrorism from Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda which has already a stronghold
in Afghanistan is also trying to strengthen itself.
In war torn Afghanistan large number of terrorist outfits and
their splinter groups are active and they get donations from several affluent
Middle Eastern countries and also earn large sums by smuggling of opium.
Needless to say that 90 percent of world opium smuggling is through Afghanistan
region. The sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) renders training and also
supplies arms & ammunition to these terrorist groups.
Nonetheless Pakistan was taken aback by the latest strategy of
Trump as US President threatened Pakistan for harbouring the terrorists who are
attacking US forces and also assigned important role to India. Pakistan centric
analysts claim that Pakistan assists terrorists in Afghanistan to mitigate the
influence of India and if India will play momentous role, Pakistan will
certainly enhance its support to terrorist outfits. Pakistanis of all walks of
life criticised Trump’s strategy but leaders in Afghanistan appreciated the
approach. Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah while appreciating the stratagem
stated that the problem is correctly identified and it may establish peace in
the country.
The analysts also claim that isolating Pakistan will not establish
peace and China, Russia and Iran will emerge as new players in Afghanistan.
Afghan Taliban while criticizing Trump’s strategy also mentioned that they are
not afraid of US threat as when 100000 troops could not annihilate them the
modest increase in number of troops will be ineffective.
Pakistan
which wants to achieve strategic depth in Afghanistan has created several
terrorist outfits which continuously attack Afghanistan security forces; Indian
installations as well as US led NATO forces. The creepy ISI which is a state
within state is actively supporting numerous terrorist organisations
including Harakat-ul-Mujahideen which
is funded by ISI and adheres to its instructions. The group is led by
Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Sirajuddin Haqqani and constantly attacks Afghan
security forces and US led NATO forces. Besides ISI it has close links with al
Qaeda and Afghan Taliban. The group has a madrassa, training centre and hiding
places in Dandi Darpa Khalin in North Waziristan, Pakistan. Hizb-i-Gulbuddin which
operates in East Afghanistan and operates with Taliban has also close relations
with ISI.
Afghan Taliban mostly
consists of Pashtuns who are Sunnis of Wahhabi and Deobandi sects. They get
donations from Arab countries while ISI train them, supply them weapons and
provide shelter. Taliban have hideouts in FATA, Khyber Pass etc. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP) which wants to establish Islamic
State in the region constantly attacks US forces. The organisation which has
more than 15000 fighters consists of Pashtuns from Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Although TTP proclaims to overthrow Pakistan government but senior officers of
ISI train and equip them.
Al-Qaeda which
has several factions including Qaeda al-Jihad, Black Guard etc. has more than
2000 cadres and fighting for establishment of Islamic Caliphate and constantly
attack US and Afghan troops. The outfit has bases in Afghanistan and Pakistan
and has close links with ISI at highest level.
Besides
these there are several other terrorist outfits which are created or supported
by ISI. Few groups ISI is using against India, while some are used against
minorities, Shias and against their own civilian government. These outfits
include Jaish-e-Mohammed,
Harakat-ul-Mujahideen, Tehrik-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi, Lashkar-e-Taiba,
Lashkar-e-Janghvi Hizb-i-Khalis, Islamic Party of Uzbekistan, IJU Islamic Jihad
Union, Turkistan al-Islamiyya, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards etc. Several
times these terrorist organisations pool resources to carry out terrorist
activities and ISI works as an intermediary.
It is a contradiction that US is the biggest foreign aid donor to
Pakistan while the latter is rendering financial and other assistance to
terrorist outfits which are killing US soldiers.
Pakistan government claims that it has launched several operations
to wipe out terrorist organisations but they take shelter in Afghanistan
nevertheless the assertion of Pakistan is bogus as Pakistan launches the
operations half-heartedly and the security forces distinguish between “good”
and “bad” terrorists. So called “good” terrorists are saved hence the
operations do not succeed.
Pakistani analysts also claim that if US will isolate then it will
take assistance from China and besides China, Russia and Iran also taking
active interest in Afghanistan, hence US must pursue a pragmatic policy and
Pakistan should not be isolated. However it is a misnomer as there are reports
that China is re-thinking about its investment in China Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) and it already warned Pakistan about the Islamic terrorist
outfits which are assisting Uighurs who are creating trouble in the
Zinjiang province. Russia which already burnt its fingers before in
Afghanistan will not like to involve much. Iran which is facing sanctions from
western world is in no position to help Pakistan.
Pakistan’s allegation that India assists Baloch rebels through
Afghanistan is also erroneous India being a peaceful country never involves in
the internal affairs of other country.
It is well-established that several terrorist groups have
safe-heavens in Pakistan and rogue intelligence agency ISI equips and train the
terrorists hence US must take decisive actions and should destroy training
camps inside Pakistan and if drones are not sufficient then planes should
devastate the training camps and in this way the trainers will also get a
stringent message that now their lives are also in danger. At present they
train the low level terrorists who work as suicide bombers for Jihad while they
enjoy all the benefits.
US and its allies as well as international organisation like
International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank etc should also stop financial
assistance to “terroristan” so that they stop assisting the terrorist outfits.
Pakistan must be told sternly that it cannot control Afghanistan
for strategic depth and helping terrorist outfits will boomerang sooner than
later. It must destroy terrorist’s hideouts at an early date.
India is a peaceful country and it never attacked other country
hence Pakistan should develop its own country and must stop export of terror to
other countries including India and Afghanistan.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior
intelligence officer. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can
be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
A
Perspective on, from and of interest to the region
Powered by SPS
Society for Policy Studies
Posted:Aug 18, 2017
By Jai
Kumar Verma
The Sunni Salafi organization, Islamic State
('Daesh' in Arabic), has been defeated in Iraq and Syria and, according to
unconfirmed reports, its Emir, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in the massive
bombings by troops led by the United States as well as Russian forces. Islamic
State (IS), declared a terrorist organization by the United Nations, European
Union and several other countries, has overt and covert followers in several
developed countries both Muslim and non-Muslim.
Disconcerted, disillusioned and misguided
Muslims from all over the world take inspiration from radical Islamic
literature loaded by IS on the internet. IS also needs a place to make its
headquarters from where its leaders and ideologues can lure new recruits.
Afghanistan is an ideal place for IS as it is already radicalized, several
terrorist outfits are operating in the country and it has difficult terrain
where the law of the land is not effective.
IS considers Shias not true Muslims. It
believes Shias should be exterminated even before non-Muslims. There was little
sectarian violence in Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban, though Sunni, did not
target Shias. However, since IS began strengthening its hold in the country it
enhanced attacks on Shias, including bomb blasts in Shia mosques, to enhance
the gulf between the communities.
IS wants to establish itself in Afghanistan
by creating a sectarian divide and devastating law and order. On August 1, IS
suicide bombers carried out bomb blasts in a Shia mosque in Heart, killing 29
persons and injuring more than 64 people. More than 1700 civilians were killed
in 2017 in Afghanistan, reflecting the poor law and order situation there. On
July 31, IS bombers attacked the Iraqi embassy in Kabul to avenge the IS defeat
in Mosul and gave a clear warning to Afghan forces that IS has support in the
country and it will try to set up base in Afghanistan after being forced to
leave Iraq and Syria.
Nine Afghan provinces including
Nangarhar, Kunar, Ghor, Jawzjan have an IS presence. Afghan defence ministry
officials admit IS fighters have latest weapons and more foreign fighters have
joined them after defeat in Iraq and Syria. Intelligence sources also claim
that more than 7000 terrorists, inclusive of Taliban, IS and some splinter
groups are active in Afghanistan. The terrorists are from Afghanistan and
countries including Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh and a small
number from India.
There are reports that terrorists from
several West Asian countries, who were fighting in Iraq and Syria, are reaching
Afghanistan through Iran and Pakistan. These battle hardened terrorists are
very dangerous and can easily recruit new terrorists from Afghanistan and
Pakistan, where youths are already radicalized.
Russia organized a conference in Moscow in
May attended by representatives of Russia, China and Pakistan. Afghanistan was
not invited. The US, which still has about 8400 troops in Afghanistan, and
India, an important stake-holder in the country, were also not invited. All
three invitees to the conference support the Taliban. The Afghan government was
not even properly briefed about the conference.
The security situation is
deteriorating. Over 500 Afghan soldiers are killed every month while civilian
casualties are much higher. Illegal opium trade has crossed all previous
records and is worth over USD 3 billion.
Earlier, Afghan Taliban was fighting IS
but now both have joined hands and carry out terrorist activities
together.
The creation of Islamic State of
Khorasan Province (ISKP) was a significant development, attracting Muslims from
across the world. Terrorists of diverse outfits especially of Tehrik-i-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP), Lashkar-e-Toiba (L-e-T), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (L-e-J),
Ahl-e-Sunnat Wai Jamaat (ASWJ), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU),
Pakistani and Afghan Taliban have shifted their allegiance to IS. After
the formation of ISKP, leaflets and pamphlets were distributed in local
languages, radical material about ISKP was loaded on internet to lure Afghans,
Pakistanis, Iranians, Russians, Indians, Bangladeshis, Europeans and West
Asians to join the outfit. It is a dangerous phenomenon and it must be
countered by all democratic forces as the Afghan government is not going to be
able to defeat IS. Afghan National Security Defence Forces (ANSDF) lack
resources, requisite training, modern weapons, latest communication equipment
and efficient leadership to counter the global terrorist outfit. ANSDF must
galvanize intelligence organisations so that they produce actionable
intelligence.
IS is a dangerous phenomenon and all
world powers must work together to wipe out IS from the whole world including
Afghanistan. United States and other NATO countries must send more troops to
Afghanistan so that IS is not able to shift headquarters to the country.
US led forces should not leave
Afghanistan as IS will become more powerful and will be a great danger not only
to the region but to the whole world. The US should also adopt stringent
measures against Pakistan for sheltering, funding and training Afghan Taliban,
including the Haqqani network.
Senator John McCain, Chairman of the
Senate Armed Forces Committee, suggested some measures to strengthen the ANSDF;
providing air support, and uniformity between civil and military
establishments. These should be implemented in letter and spirit.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based
strategic analyst and a retired intelligence officer. He can be contacted at
jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)
Note : Article was republished by Indian Defence Review &
Center for Asia Studies
Aviation & Defence Universe
Pakistan To Be Blamed For Its
Sliding Relations With Afghanistan
By
JK Verma
New
Delhi.05 April 2017. The statement of former
Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai that “We want friendly relationship but not
to be under Pakistan’s thumb” was prophetic and depicts the hard truth. The
military controlled Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) erroneously feels that it
can control Afghanistan through the terrorist outfits created and funded by it.
Pakistan army is also obsessed with the illogical concept of achieving
“strategic depth” in Afghanistan. Therefore Pakistani security agencies take
actions against “bad terrorists” while “good terrorists” operate with impunity
in North Waziristan as well as in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
Pakistan abetted terrorists especially Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Ahmad
Shah Massoud are involved in terrorist activities in Afghanistan since 1970 and
this made the relations tense between both the countries. In March 2017 alone
Pakistan sponsored terrorist groups especially Hikmatyar group and Taliban
carried out more than five terrorist acts mainly in Kabul, Zabul and Helmund
Provinces in which about 140 innocent persons were killed and many more were
injured.
Leaders of Afghanistan always mentioned that the roots of
terrorism lie outside the country. Recently Nazifullah Salarzai, Deputy
Permanent Representative of Afghanistan in United Nations Security Council
(UNSC) stated that “The ongoing cycle of violence in Afghanistan is not, by any
means, a homegrown phenomenon. Its roots lie elsewhere, outside Afghanistan.”
Nonetheless Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) spokesperson
Major General Asif Ghafoor clarified that Pakistan is not involved in the
terrorist activities in any other country.
Pakistan which produces and train terrorists to carry out
terrorist activities in neighbouring countries could not control all the
terrorist outfits and few terrorist groups flouted the dictates of ISI and
involved in terrorist activities in the country. According to reports in first
three months of 2017 there were about 16 terrorist attacks in which 184 persons
were killed and more than 683 were maimed. These terrorist activities included
bomb blasts at Sehwan Sharif in Sindh in which 89 persons were killed and 350
were injured and explosions at Mall Road Lahore in which 15 persons lost lives
and 85 were injured.
Punjabi controlled Pakistan was shaken as the bomb blasts occurred
in Punjab hence both military and civilian government took urgent actions and
on one hand they launched Operation Radd-ul-Fassad an anti-terrorist operation
all over the country especially in Punjab and on the other hand they blamed
Afghanistan for sponsoring terrorism in the country.
Pakistan which is infamous for exporting terror in several
countries of the world blamed Afghanistan for the terrorist activities inside
Pakistan and also resorted to surgical strike on February 17. In surgical
strike Pakistani army claimed that it destroyed hideouts of terrorists and
killed numerous terrorists including Adil Bacha an important leader of
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar a breakaway faction of Tehreek-e-Taliban of Pakistan
(TTP). However neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan made any official
confirmation of surgical strike.
Pakistan closed border with Afghanistan at Torkham and moved heavy
weaponry including tanks, artillery guns and deployed additional force at the
borders.
One Pakistani major and two Afghan border guards were also killed
in the clashes at border where Pakistan wanted to construct a gate but Afghan
forces objected to it as Afghanistan does not recognize Durand Line. The
situation became volatile on 2500 kilometer long porous Pakistan-Afghanistan
border.
Pakistan army also summoned Afghanistan diplomats at Army Headquarters
and told them to take stringent actions against terrorist groups operating in
their country and carrying out terrorist activities inside Pakistan. They also
handed over a list of terrorists who were involved in carrying out terrorist
activities and told Afghan diplomats to handover these terrorists to Pakistan
so that rigorous action can be taken.
The analysts feel that Pakistan is blaming Afghanistan for these
terrorist attacks with ulterior motive to distract the attention of masses from
the recent bomb blasts and the killing of Mulla Mansour, the Taliban leader in
Pakistani territory in US drone attack.
Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani after taking over in September
2014, wanted to inculcate cordial relations with Pakistan even at the cost of
India. Ghani as a visiting president even went to Army Headquarters to meet the
then Pakistani army Chief General Raheel Sharif and requested him to share
intelligence so that the terrorist organisations operating in both the
countries can be eliminated but General Sharif and ISI Chief Lieutenant General
Rizwan Akhtar obstinately refused to cooperate with visiting president.
Ghani also agreed to send Afghan Army personnel to Pakistan
instead of India for training and also avoided taking weapons from India. The
critics mentioned that Ghani had gone too far to appease Pakistan which was
derogatory for an independent country.
Pakistan has pushed large number of refugees including terrorists
in Afghanistan after the launch of operation Zarb-e-Azab, in North Waziristan.
Pakistani army exterminated only terrorists who were carrying out terrorist
activities in Pakistan and terrorists who were obeying ISI instructions and
were involved in terrorist activities in India and Afghanistan were given
shelter and time to escape.
Eventually Afghan President Ghani became disillusioned with
Pakistan and understood that Pakistani army is the real sponsor of terrorism in
the country hence it will never assist him in the eradication of terrorism.
Consequent upon Ghani snubbed Pakistan for assisting terrorist groups. In his
speech of December 4, 2016 at Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar, refused to
accept USD 500 million assistance offered by Pakistan, instead Ghani stated
that Pakistan should use this money to counter terrorism in the country.
He also quoted a Taliban leader who mentioned that, terrorist groups cannot
function without assistance from Pakistan.
Besides cross border terrorism both countries have also problems
of drug trafficking, Taliban insurgency, Afghan refugees, smuggling of arms
& ammunition, border skirmishes and sheltering of various terrorist
outfits. These problems multiply because of mistrust and desire of Pakistan to
control Afghanistan. Pakistan also alleges that India is supporting Balochistan
secessionist movement through Afghanistan.
Last month in an interview former Pakistani President Pervez
Musharraf also alleged that India is misusing Afghan Intelligence agency
National Directorate of Security (NDS) in fomenting trouble in Pakistan
especially in Balochistan.
Pakistan is also apprehensive of strengthening relations between
India and Afghanistan. India is assisting Afghanistan in several fields
including defence. Both the countries would announce air cargo service which
will boost the bilateral trade. India also delivered four Mi-25 helicopters to
Afghanistan and pledged an assistance of USD 1 billion.
Pakistani leaders are also worried because of growing influence of
India in the international arena and developing close India-Afghanistan
relationship. US President Donald Trump has taken a very stringent posture
against terrorism and Pakistan will not get undue favour and generous aid from
US. Chabahar port is also an irritation to Pakistan as it will lessen
Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistan and will develop better relations between
India, Iran and Afghanistan.
Pakistan took aggressive posture against Afghanistan considering
that the latter is in difficulty but there is so much of aversion in
Afghanistan towards Pakistan that whole nation stood firmly behind Ghani to
face their hostile eastern neighbour.
In view of Pakistan’s isolation the government should tame ISI
take stringent actions against all terrorists and stop differentiating between
“good” and “bad” terrorists.
There is no danger of attack from a peaceful country like India
hence Pakistan should abandon the idea of attaining strategic depth in
Afghanistan and install a puppet regime there.
It is high time when Pakistan Army hands over real power to
civilian government and stops abetting multifarious terrorist groups which were
created to make trouble in neighbouring countries. The government should
discontinue repression in Balochistan, Sindh and other places so the mass
movements stop and there is no need to blame other countries for inciting the
secessionist movements.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired Central
Intelligence Officer . The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can
be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
SOUTH ASIA MONITOR
A Perspective on, from and of
interest to the region
Powered by SPS
Society for Policy Studies
Taliban gaining
strength in Afghanistan: Alarm bells for region
Posted:May 12,
2017
By Jai Kumar Verma
Pakistan-backed Taliban are strengthening in
Afghanistan and slowly but steadily capturing new territories. They now control
seven out of 14 districts of Helmand province and are fighting to capture five
more districts -- and the ill-equipped Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF)
are unable to repulse them.
The security situation in the country
has deteriorated considerably. President Ashraf Ghani’s policy of
reconciliation with Pakistan has failed as the Pakistan military has rein in
the Taliban in Afghanistan.
On April 11, Taliban militants,
disguised in Afghan military uniforms, attacked an ANSF base in Mazar-i-Sharif
and killed at least 140 soldiers which depicts their strength, courage and
confidence. The base is the headquarters of 209 Corps and its area of operation
is Northern Afghanistan, including Kunduz province where heavy fighting is
continuing.
Taliban claimed that Afghan soldiers
who were posted in the base also participated in the attack and approximately
500 soldiers were either killed or wounded. In March also, insurgents attacked
the main military hospital in Kabul in which more than 30 persons were
slaughtered and a large number were injured.
General security is declining in
Afghanistan and Taliban are strengthening. The power of the Taliban has
considerably enhanced since the end of 2014 when most of the NATO forces left
the country.
At present, there are 8,400 US and
5,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan purely in an advisory capacity. German troops
were present in Mazar-i-Sharif at the time of the April 11 attack although no
German soldier was killed.
The ill-trained Afghan soldiers are no
match to the spirited Taliban fighters. The Afghan army is also battling large
scale desertions, massive killings, ghost soldiers, corruption, ill-training,
poor leadership and the problem of old and obsolete weapons. According to a US
think-tank, about 6,800 soldiers and policemen were killed in 2016 alone.
Afghan troops could not achieve the desired professionalism and efficacy
although the US spent about $65 billion on training and equipping the Afghan
army during the last more than a decade.
The United States dropped a GBU-43/B
Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb in eastern Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on
April 25 killing more than 90 Islamic State (IS) terrorists. The powerful bomb
destroyed the hiding places of IS including tunnels and caves. Analysts
maintain that the US is in a dilemma about the Taliban as its close associate
Pakistan insists that the US should not destroy Taliban, hence US forces
dropped the powerful bomb on the hideouts of IS and not on the stronghold of
Taliban.
The Haqqani network, with the support of the
Pakistan military-controlled Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has
consolidated its position and at present it controls Afghan Taliban. It emerged
as a unifying force among various factions of Afghan Taliban. ISI which desires
to achieve ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan through Taliban, especially the
Haqqani network, does not want the destruction of Taliban. There are confirmed
reports that several Pakistanis joined the Haqqani network and fought ANSF.
Analysts mention that IS is not the
prime threat in Afghanistan and the major threat to ANSF and to the US-led NATO
forces is from Afghan Taliban while the US dropped the ‘mother of all bombs’ on
an IS hideout.
Iran is also worried because of rising
influence of Saudi Arabia in Afghanistan, especially Taliban -- who are Sunni
Muslims and follow Deobandi fundamentalism and Salafi jihadism. Taliban do not
consider Shias as Muslims and although Afghanistan has 10 per cent Shia
population, they are scared of Taliban rule.
Besides ISI, Afghan Taliban get support
from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan. A few of these terrorist outfits are financed by Saudi
Arabia.
Russia supports Iran’s entry in the
Afghan peace process. Russia and China both have Muslim populations and want to
restrict influence of IS in Afghanistan as it would radicalise their Muslim
population. China, which shares its borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan, is
already suffering from Islamic terrorism in Xinjiang autonomous region. The
Taliban of Pakistan and Afghanistan assist Uighur Muslims of China and impart
training, including lessons in Jihad, supply arms and ammunition and also
provide shelter.
Russia is also worried about rise of IS
in Afghanistan as about four to six per cent Russians profess Muslim religion
and 90 per cent of them are Sunni Muslims. Besides enhancement of Islamic
extremism, Russia is also concerned about the opium trade from Afghanistan. A
large number of Russian Muslims have joined IS and Russian authorities fear
that once IS is vanquished in Syria and Iraq, these Russians would return and
create problems in the country. Hence, Russians are also against the rise of IS
in Afghanistan.
In this manner, China, Russia, the US
and Pakistan all are working against IS in Afghanistan but they cannot work
jointly as all have separate interests. The Russians and Americans are
supporting rival groups at several places in the world hence there is no hope
of cooperation in Afghanistan.
The Russians are more inclined to
cooperate with China and Pakistan in Afghanistan than India and this was the
reason why in the beginning only China, Pakistan and Russia discussed about the
situation in Afghanistan. These countries even excluded Afghanistan from the
discussions as they were not interested in restoration of peace and tranquility
but wanted to curb the rising influence of Daesh in Afghanistan. All these
countries have no problem with Taliban although the influence of Taliban is
much more than IS.
Afghanistan and India want peace in the
country hence both are against rising influence of Taliban while all other
countries want eradication of IS and not of Taliban.
The Pakistani military-controlled ISI
which supports Taliban, particularly the Haqqani network, must be told
stringently that it must stop supporting terrorist outfits as it is becoming
counter-productive for Pakistan, Afghanistan and for the region.
Peace cannot be restored in Afghanistan
by deputing foreign troops. Only Afghan forces can fight with Taliban as well
as Daesh. Therefore, all countries should chalk out a comprehensive plan to
train and equip ANSF so that they can eradicate various terrorist outfits.
ANSF personnel can be trained in India
while sending to Pakistan may be dangerous as they would learn Islamic
extremism/terrorism there. Latest weapons, including airpower and communication
devices, can be provided by the US and Russia.
Both the US and Russia should not
involve themselves in a cold war in Afghanistan as it will be
counter-productive. All the stakeholders in Afghanistan must realise that if
Taliban come to power again in Afghanistan it will be dangerous not only for
the region but also for the whole world.
(The author is a Delhi-based strategic
analyst. Comments and suggestions on this article can be sent to
editor@spsindia.in)
Note : Article
was republished by Indian Defence Review & Center for Asia Studies
SOUTH ASIA MONITOR
A Perspective on, from and of
interest to the region
Powered by SPS
Society for Policy Studies
Afghanistan
should pay back Pakistan in the same coin; By Jai Kumar Verma
Republished By Center for Asia Studies
Afghanistan should pay back Pakistan in the
same coin; By Jai Kumar Verma
CAS article no. 0009/2017
Pakistan pursues the policy of
“strategic depth” whereby it wants to convert Afghanistan into a client state.
Its Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), which controls several terrorist outfits
in Afghanistan, enhances the terrorist activities when it feels that the Afghan
government is not following its diktat or becoming close to India. ISI uses the
Taliban to dislodge the lawful government and, if feasible, to establish a
government of its predilection.
The ISI is heavily involved in distribution of arms, financial
assistance, logistical and military assistance to the Afghan Taliban, and
especially the Hekmatyar group, Haqqani network, Hezb-e-Islami and even Al
Qaeda. These outfits constantly carry out terrorist activities, including
killing of anti-Pakistan leaders, on Pakistan’s behest. ISI is also involved in
drug smuggling and the money generated from this smuggling is used to finance
the terror outfits.
Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, after becoming President of Afghanistan
in September 2014, wanted to inculcate friendly relations with Pakistan even at
the cost of India. He was aware that without Pakistani assistance, it is
difficult, if not impossible, to curb insurgency in his country.
Ghani went out of the way and even visited Pakistan Army
Headquarters at Rawalpindi to meet then Pakistan Army chief General Raheel
Sharif and requested him to control various terrorist outfits which were
carrying out terrorist activities in Afghanistan on the behest of ISI, but
General Sharif refused to help the visiting President.
After being disillusioned from Pakistan, Ghani turned towards
India and, as an old friend, India rendered all kinds of assistance, including
training and supply of armaments. Ghani was so annoyed with Pakistan’s
undiplomatic behaviour that he even snubbed Pakistan openly at the Heart of
Asia conference in Amritsar for instigating cross-border terrorism. He also
refused to accept an assistance of $500 million and mentioned that this money
can be used in controlling terrorism.
As Ghani acted against the perceived interests of Pakistan,
ISI-sponsored Afghan Taliban enhanced their terrorist activities. On January
10, Taliban carried out twin blasts in which more than 30 persons were killed
and 70 others wounded. The blasts occurred near the Parliament building which
was constructed by Indian assistance and was inaugurated by Indian Prime
Minister Narendra Modi in December 2015.
Taliban targeted a mini bus which was carrying the staff of
Afghanistan’s prime intelligence agency National Directorate of Security (NDS).
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid immediately owned responsibility and
boasted that the blasts were carried out according to their plan.
Taliban also claimed responsibility for another bomb blast that
occurred in Helmand in a house used by NDS. In Helmand, seven people were
killed and nine others were injured. In another bomb blast, at Kandahar, seven
persons were killed and 18 others injured, including the Ambassador of the
United Arab Emirates and the Governor of the province.
Taliban are also targeting politicians — Rahima Jami, a
parliamentarian, was injured in the blasts on January 10 while politicians from
Helmand and Bamiyan were also attacked.
Taliban also killed more than 30 Shias in a mosque in November.
Afghan security forces are not able to control the law and order
situation despite the extended presence of about 10,000 American troops.
Consequently, diverse terrorist outfits, especially the ISI-sponsored Taliban,
Islamic State, Al Qaeda and several splinter terrorist outfits are gaining
ground. The situation is precarious — not only for the region but for the whole
world.
United States Central Command chief General Joseph L. Votel
recently said the Afghan government controls only 60 per cent of the area while
10 per cent is controlled by Taliban and in the rest of the area fighting is
going on.
Analysts claim that the total strength of terrorists in the
country is about 45,000 out of which Taliban has 30,000 militants while the
remaining are Pakistanis and of other nationalities. However, all of them are against
Afghan and US troops and are killing about 40-50 Afghan security forces every
day. In this maneer, Taliban are slowly but steadily gaining ground.
The recent statement of Michael T. Flynn, a retired Lt. General
who will hold an important portfolio in the national security team of US
President-elect Donald Trump, that chaos in Afghanistan would threaten the US
is significant as it indicates that Washington will not abandon Kabul.
The Afghan government must chalk out a detailed plan to
establish rule of law in the whole of the country. It will be difficult as
Afghanistan is divided into various groups and leaders but first of all the
Afghan government must resolve the internal strife between President Ghani and
his Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, so that long-term internal as well as
foreign policies can be formulated.
The Defence Minister of the country was appointed after
inordinate delay due to the differences between Ghani and Abdullah.
Secondly, the government should launch a campaign highlighting
that Taliban are not Islamic and they are simply working under instructions of
Islamabad with ulterior motive of dislodging the lawful government. They are
against the progress of the country — hence supporting them is against Islam
and is anti-national.
India is a dependable friend and is willing to render assistance
hence the present government must take its assistance in equipping and training
the security agencies. India is also suffering from terrorism, especially
cross-border terrorism, hence Indian security forces have expertise and
infrastructure to deal with it. Though Afghan security personnel are getting
training in India, they should enhance the number of trainees.
Also, Pakistan-trained terrorists use modern weapons hence
Afghan security forces must possess better weaponry to counter them.
It is good that a small contingent of US-led NATO troops is
still in the country for training and other purposes. Afghan security forces
must utilise their services so that the professionalism in the security forces
can be augmented.
No country can establish law and order without a powerful and
motivated force. Hence, first of all, the security forces should recruit
dedicated personnel and they should be trained and equipped with modern weapons
and equipment. The high morale of the force is also significant so there should
be no desertion. In the past, there was a high desertion rate in the security
forces, and the deserters were escaping with the weapons which was harmful for
the morale of the security forces.
Lastly, if Pakistan does not stop fomenting trouble in
Afghanistan, Kabul should also consider abetting multifarious secessionist
movements going on in Pakistan, particularly separatist movements in
Balochistan and in Pakhtunkhwa.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst. Comments
and suggestions on this article can be sent to editor@spsindia.in)
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