Maldives

Democracy & secularism in peril: MDP Looses in Maldives Winning PNC Presidential Candidate Dr.Mohamed Muizzu By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 04 October 2023. Maldives is all set to see a change of guard at its helm. And this new political scenario will also result into the island nation’s changed diplomacy. Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) lost presidential elections in the second round and his rival Mohamed Muizzu, the mayor of the capital, Malé City of People’s National Congress (PNC) which is the prime constituent of the opposition coalition won the election. The result was announced on 1st October. There are more than 282,000 eligible voters and the voters turnout was about 85 percent. There were about 165 international observers and monitors with overseas polling booths at Trivandrum, Kuala Lumpur, Colombo, London, and Abu Dhabi. The Author The first round of voting was held in early September in which eight candidates were in the fray and with no candidate getting 50 percent votes the second round of voting became imperative which was held on 30th September. But the mood of the voter in the first round was clear as President Solih trailed with 39 percent his rival’s 46%. The main reason for this defeat is the rebellion of Mohamed Nasheed, a former president, and a childhood friend of Solih. In last elections Nasheed supported Solih to win the presidential election however once Solih became President, Nasheed felt ignored hence he constituted a new party and put forward a candidate in first round of elections. Although his party received only 7% of votes but his declaration of not supporting either of the main parties contesting, sealed the fate of Solih. Nasheed who was made speaker after the 2018 elections always supported India nevertheless in the current elections, he opposed Solih who is also deemed as India supporter. China’s interest and foray in Maldives is no secret keeping its Indian Ocean geo-polity in mind. Both Beijing and New Delhi are very keenly watching this change between murmurs that the current Presidential election was a referendum on the Maldives tug of war between two Asian giants India and China as the small but important nation is located so strategically that both India and China want to enhance their influence on the island nation. Muizzu has support of Abdullah Yameen Abdul Gayoom who remained President of Maldives from 2013 to 2018. At present he is serving 11 years of jail term on a money-laundering case and is debarred from contesting elections. His supporters are posting videos on social media sites advocating the release of Yameen. President elect Muizzu also in his brief interaction at party headquarters supported the release of the former President who is a strong supporter of China. Yameen during his presidency, made Maldives a part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is the dream project of Chinese President Xi Jinping. BRI is a debt-trap and several countries in the world are suffering because they became part of BRI. Sri Lanka is the foremost example of Chinese debt trap; the economy of the island nation was ruined and at that time India and International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescued the island nation. Maldives which is a Muslim country of 550,000 people was always worked under “India First” policy however under President Yameen it changed its foreign policy and came under influence of expansionist China. Maldives under his presidentship took loan of more than 1 billion dollars to finance massive infrastructure projects which included housing as well as bridging connecting over crowded Male to nearby suburb and airport islands. His tenure was authoritarian, and he imprisoned large number of opposition leaders, tormented journalists, bribed judges, and lawmakers. He even corrupted the human right activists and controlled the public ruthlessly by using security forces. In his tenure massive corruption occurred in which millions of dollars were embezzled from public funds. Although he was a democratically elected president, he ruled the country with an iron fist. He is known as killer of democracy. The Islamic fundamentalism and extremism increased manifold during Yameen’s tenure. He deliberately overlooked the rise of al Qaeda, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) at present known as Islamic State (IS), in the island. As the majority population of the island is poor and uneducated hence extremist Islamic organisations successfully recruited Maldivian youths. Saudi Arabia pumped large sum of money in constructing mosques and Madrassas while Pakistan sent Maulvis and Imams for preaching Islamic fundamentalism in the country. As more than 43% of Maldivians have access to internet hence Islamic fundamentalism was also spread through internet. Yameen Rasheed the outspoken blogger of “The Daily Panic” was brutally killed by extremists. His friend Ahmed Rilwan another journalist was also kidnapped in 2014 and he never came back. Rise of Islamic fundamentalism suited Yameen, Pakistan as well as to China as all three were working against democratic and secular India. On the other hand, Solih defeated Yameen and won 2018 elections on the premise of eradication of corruption, establishment of democratic norms, a secular regime, good governance, and action against the killers of blogger and journalist. Solih introduced minimum wage policy, stopped oppression of rival political parties, and also developed infrastructure in Maldives’, distant islands. The undue Chinese influence which was enhanced during the regime of Yameen was also reduced. Solih obtained $250 million financial assistance from India which rescued the Island nation at the time of COVID-19 pandemic when the tourism industry which is the mainstay of Maldives dried up. India also built several infrastructure projects including a second bridge in Male region and extended financial assistance. An important Maldives based think tank namely Baani Centre for International Policy claimed that in the end of 2021 the debt from India and China became equal. As Solih drifted from China, he took the country near Western countries including United States, Australia, and United Kingdom. These countries were critical of human rights abuses during the regime of Yameen. These countries also helped Maldives and for the first time posted their envoys in Male. However, the analysts claimed that Solih has not proved a good administrator and failed to eradicate corruption from the country. Only Yameen was imprisoned while other political leaders especially Solih’s supporters were not charged for corruption. Solih used state-owned companies to give jobs to journalists so that they write favourable articles appreciating his party and administration. Muizzu and his party were able to raise anti-India sentiments through “India out Campaign” and promised to push out Indian military personnel from the island nation. Muizzu and his party People’s National Congress, which is pro-China alleged that under Solih, country’s sovereignty is in danger. Solih failed to convince the masses that Indian military contingent is only to build a dockyard. Although several foreign powers including China, India, USA, and Saudi Arabia are influencing Maldives, but Muizzu’s party targeted India as Delhi was projected close ally of the MDP. The PNC rumoured that India is funding MDP’s election campaign. Yameen is very critical of India as he believes that India was behind his ouster in 2018. Nonetheless, analysts claim that the regime of Muizzu will be awful as his party would suppress opposition parties, journalists etc. The influence of China would enhance manifold and democratic values would be reduced, while human right violations would enhance. Islamic fundamentalism is also expected to increase manifold and it will hamper country’s scientific progress and modernisation drive. Although Muizzu and his party are pro-China and won elections by criticising the policies of Solih and on anti-India rhetoric but once Muizzu becomes President of the country, he or his party cannot ignore India as Delhi helped the country in the hour of need. Muizzu before he was elected as President, asserted that if elected he would continue with the policy of “India First” but his policy would be in limit. In democracies political parties come and go but national interest remains supreme hence the importance of India would not be dwindled much. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com

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India should extend wholehearted assistance to Maldives government

The Maldivian open support against Pakistan in OIC is a victory of Indian diplomacy, writes Jai Kumar Verma for South Asia Monitor

 By Jai Kumar Verma Jul 15, 2020

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The strategically located archipelago nation became excessively pro-China and anti-India during the time of President Abdulla Yameen. He extended unrestrained favours to China and worked against the interests of India. In fact, he fought 2018 presidential election and his party fought 2019 Maldives Parliamentary elections on anti-India rhetoric. Yameen who was said to be ‘pathologically’ anti-India thought that because of the increase of Islamic extremism and Chinese influence he will win elections on the anti-India plank, but he lost the elections to Mohamed Solih of Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). In the same way, in the People’s Majlis elections held in April 2019 his rival party MDP won 65 out of 87 seats.  Yameen on the behest of Chinese powerful and extremely secretive intelligence organisation Ministry of State Security (MSS) imprisoned all political leaders who were opposing him. However, it proved counterproductive and Yameen and his party lost the elections. 

In his first tenure Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited all the South Asian nations, except the Maldives because of Yameen’s anti-India activities. Nevertheless, in November 2018 Modi attended the swearing-in ceremony of President Solih. 

Growing radicalisation

The influence of Wahhabism and Salafism enhanced so much in the country that a total of 423 Maldivian citizens tried to reach Iraq and Syria to join the Islamic State (IS) while about 173 people actually joined the IS. Maldives has a total population of about 540,000 hence so many people planning to join IS indicates that the country has been radicalised. Although the radicalisation started in 1990, After the tsunami of 2004 there was a rash of construction of mosques and madrassas in the archipelago amid influx of radical preachers from Saudi Arabia as well as from Pakistan. These extremist preachers radicalised the masses and destroyed the Sufi and Buddhist culture of the country.

The island nation is very important for India’s trade and security as both countries have age-old cordial relations. Modi visited the Maldives and Sri Lanka in June 2019 which was his first overseas visit after re-election. He addressed Parliament of Maldives inaugurated two defence projects and signed a few more agreements. The Maldives bestowed Rule of Nishan Izzuddeen to Modi which is the country’s highest honour given to a foreign dignitary.  

Islamabad also constructed mosques and awarded scholarships to Maldivian students. A large number of the students who came back from Pakistan after religious education became Islamic fanatics. 

Maldives owes $ 3.5 billion dollars loan to China while Maldivian GDP is about $ 5 billion only and it has to pay $ 700 million to China in 2022. Although such a large amount of loan and hefty installment may ruin the economy of the island nation, it also indicates the tight grip of China over the Maldives. 

Victory of Indian diplomacy

However, Indian diplomacy succeeded when on May 22, 2020, in the virtual meeting of Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) United Nations envoys, Maldives Permanent Representative rejected the recommendation of Pakistan’s United Nations (UN) Ambassador Munir Akram to take action against India for encouraging Islamophobic agenda. Akram suggested constituting a small working group so that some action can be taken against India in the UN. 

Thilmeeza Hussain, Permanent Representative of Maldives in the UN, stated that "Targeting a specific country will be like sidestepping the real issue. In this light, let me state that singling out India, the largest democracy in the world and multi-cultural society and home to over 200 million Muslims, alleging Islamophobia would be factually incorrect." She further explained that "It would be detrimental to the religious harmony in the South Asian region. Islam has existed in India for centuries and it is the second-largest religion in India, with 14.2 percent of the country's population. Isolated statements by motivated people and disinformation campaigns on social media should not be construed as representative of the feelings of 1.3 billion." In last she added that "Maldives cannot support any action within the OIC, that singles-out or targets India." She also suggested to Pakistan to be more accommodative.   

The Maldivian open support against Pakistan in OIC is a victory of Indian diplomacy. Maldives import several essential items including rice, wheat, condiments, and pharmaceuticals from India. Recently, Delhi sent two medical teams, medicines, and 580 tonnes of food items from the Indian naval ship, Kesari. Once the Maldives supported New Delhi openly, other countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman also backed India. In the past, OIC criticised India on several issues especially on Kashmir on behest of Pakistan. 

The Maldivian support came when a US panel and some UN members were criticising India on the issue of Islamophobia. Maldivian support in OIC against Pakistan is also important. The Maldives representative also reminded that India has strong ties with different Muslim countries including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Afghanistan and Palestine and these countries have conferred their highest civilian awards to Prime Minister Modi. It was also a veiled message to Pakistan that it should not take intra-regional issues into international organisations like OIC, UN, etc. On the other hand, Maldives joined other countries to condemn Israel. Hence Male made it clear that the cases of India and Israel are different. The Maldives also assured that the reference of Kashmir will be deleted from the summit records. 

On one hand India has to lessen Chinese influence, while on the other hand rising radicalisation in the Maldives is also a problem. India should extend wholehearted assistance to the present government in its anti-terrorism and anti-radicalisation actions as it will be beneficial for both. India should emphasise in the Maldives that both countries have close ethnic, linguistic, religious and commercial relations, and that India was among the first to recognise the Maldives and established diplomatic relations. Indian intelligence agencies should also be active to contradict the disinformation campaign launched by MSS. If feasible India should raise long-term assets which are helpful in creating public opinion in favour of India and should also project that China is an expansionist nation and after damaging the economy of the country may even try to capture some islands.   

(The writer is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of USI and IDSA. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

 SOUTH ASIA MONITOR

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Feb 08
2020

India must help curb rising Islamic extremism in the Maldives

Increasing Islamic radicalisation and the influence of Pakistan and China in the island nation may be troublesome and India must adopt necessary measures to counter their influence at the earliest, writes Jai Kumar Verma for South Asia Monitor

 By Jai Kumar Verma Feb 07, 2020

The Maldives, strategically located in the Indian Ocean region, has traditionally been famous for luxury tourism. However, it is also increasingly becoming infamous for Islamic terrorism. Over 173 Maldivian citizens joined Islamic State (IS) while 423 Maldivians tried to enter Iraq and Syria to join the terrorist organisation. As the island nation’s total population is 515,696, it has got the dubious distinction of sending the highest percentage of its citizens to Iraq and Syria to join the IS.

Wahhabi/Salafi Islam started strengthening in the Maldives since 1990, but it was after the tsunami of 2004 that the number of Saudi sponsored Islamic preachers rose exponentially. The preachers propagated Wahhabism; an extremist form of Islam.

The country’s location makes it immensely significant for India’s trade and security, while regional and global powers are also attempting to enhance their influence there. Besides foreign influence, the country also faces internal dissensions and environmental disasters. However, the biggest problem the country faces is rising terrorism, Islamic radicalisation and religious conservatism. The Sufi and Buddhist culture of the archipelago nation has been devastated by Islamic radicalisation.  

From the 1980s onwards, Wahhabi influence crept in after several Maldivian students returned from Madrassas in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Although the then President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom was not a radical Islamist, he emphasised the country’s Islamic identity. The 1997 constitution gives citizenship only to Muslims and non-Muslims are forbidden from practicing their religion in public. After Gayoom’s departure from power, the impact of Wahhabi preachers has considerably risen.

Saudi Arabian financial assistance and its effects substantially increased during the presidentship of Gayoom’s step-brother Abdulla Yameen. Riyadh pumped petrodollars into the Maldives as it wanted to establish military bases there to gain an offensive staging point against Iran. Yameen wanted rapid economic development, thus taking substantial financial assistance from Saudi Arabia and China. Riyadh increased Wahabism, constructed mosques across the archipelago nation and an Islamic centre in Male. The Saudis also educated Maldivian religious scholars, preachers and Imams while China poured money into infrastructure projects.

Pakistan, which has emerged as an important exporter of Jihad, also played a significant role in the progression of Islamic extremism in Maldives. Pakistan constructed madrassas and mosques and awarded scholarships to Maldivian students for study in Pakistani educational institutions. These measures have increased extremism and Maldivians were instigated to fight not only in Iraq and Syria, but also in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Kashmir.      

Social and economic conditions in Male are also responsible for the increasing extremism. Large numbers of Maldivians are uneducated and hence, can be easily recruited by religious extremists. More than 43% Maldivians have access to the internet and a sizable number of them were recruited through the internet and social media. Widespread unemployment, gang violence, more than 100,000 persons crammed in one square mile in Male have also contributed to the increase of Islamic extremism. There are a large number of broken marriages and, because of the density of population, several youths live on the streets, from where they are recruited by Jihadists, anti-social elements and drug peddlers.

The Adalat party (Justice Party) and some NGOs including Jamiyyathu Salaf (JS) and the Islamic Foundation of Maldives (IFM) are also responsible for spreading extremism in the country. Initially, only people from deprived fishing communities were associated with extremist organisations, but now young persons from educated and rich families are also joining terrorism.  

The Maldivians allege that propaganda about Maldivian jihadis has been blown out of proportion by the western media. The present government is trying to salvage Maldivians stranded in Iraq and Syria. The people returning from Iraq and Syria need de-radicalization, re-education and rehabilitation in the country and the current MDP government under President Ibrahim Solih is formulating measures to ensure their influence does not spread. 

Increasing Islamic radicalisation and the influence of Pakistan and China in the island nation may be troublesome and India must adopt necessary measures to counter their influence at the earliest. Indian businessmen should enter the tourism industry there to increase their influence. The rise of radical Islam threatened the hospitality sector but still remains the major revenue earner. Yameen used Islamic fundamentalism to keep a distance from India and cosy up to Saudi Arabia.

China, which considers India as a potential rival, is winning over India’s neighbours. China has already occupied Gwadar port in Pakistan and Hambantota port in Sri Lanka. The Communist regime in Nepal is close to China while Bangladesh also has good relations. Hence, India must chalk out a pragmatic plan to win over its neighbours.

China is an expansionist country and, through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), will exploit smaller South Asian nations. With large loans, even the sovereignty of these nations could be endangered. Sri Lanka had to surrender Hambantota port to China on a 99-year lease.

India should help the Maldives in curbing radicalisation by screening extremist clerics, ideologists and lecturers. The spread of extremism through the internet, mobile phones and social media should also be checked. The preachers who radicalise the masses through the distorted version of Islam must be punished. The government must launch propaganda against the propagation of extremism by involving moderate religious preachers, professors, professionals and NGOs. The Maldives is located strategically and Pakistan and China both are trying to increase their influence, albeit in different ways, hence India must take requisite steps to curb their unwarranted influence. 

(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst)

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Home » Uncategorized » India trying to reduce Chinese influence on Maldives

India Trying To Reduce Chinese Influence On Maldives

·         Extends 1.4 Bn budgetary support

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 23 December 2018. Prime Minister Modi, after meeting visiting President Mohamed Ibrahim Solih of Republic of Maldives, announced that “India will extend financial assistance of $1.4 billion to the Maldives in the form of budgetary support, currency swap agreements and concessional lines of credit, for its social and economic development.”

It was the first foreign visit of President Solih, after taking over on 17 November 2018, as President of Maldives, which consists of 26 atolls and about 200 islands.  Solih came to India on a three day visit with a high level delegation and stayed in President House as a special guest, which indicates the close relationship between both the countries.

Besides the financial assistance, India and Maldives also signed agreements/MoUs and joint declarations on visa arrangements, cultural cooperation, mutual cooperation to improve the ecosystem for the enhancement of business of agricultural products and joint declarations in the fields of information and communication technologies. Both countries also agreed to work jointly on several fields including health, investments, tourism etc.

India also offered 1000 extra seats to Maldivian people for training in diverse fields including judiciary, policing, community development, information technology, media, leadership, audit and financial management just to name few. Due to relaxation on visa rules more people can come for medical treatment and the parents can accompany their children, who are studying in India.

Both the countries also agreed on the maintenance of peace and tranquility in Indian Ocean Region and delivered a terse message to China, that they would not allow their territory to be used against the interests of other country. It was also decided to increase patrolling, aerial surveillance, exchange of information and capacity building in Indian Ocean Region.

India and Maldives also agreed to fight terrorism. It is important for India and other democratic countries, as influence of Wahabism was increasing rapidly in the island nation. The Middle East countries have pumped massive economic assistance in Male, which resulted rise of Islamic fundamentalism and extremism. Number of mosques and Madrassas were considerably increased and it resulted in young Maldivian youths joining the the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) which is also known as Islamic State (IS). 200 radicalised young Maldivians had gone to Iraq and Syria to join ISIL from the population of approximately 440000 only. It clearly indicates the high level of radicalisation of the country which is dangerous for the whole region including India.

The visiting president also reaffirmed the ‘India-First Policy’ and mentioned that the archipelago nation will work closely with India. President Solih also invited India’s private sector to work in the development of housing, healthcare, education, tourism, water and sewerage as well as infrastructure development of the island nation. It is important that Indian private sector grab the opportunity and involve itself in the development of the Maldives, which is struggling with repayment of massive loan given by China mainly during the presidency of tinpot dictator Abdulla Yameen, who helped Beijing by giving all the contracts with ulterior motive of undermining Indian interests. In fact President Yameen cancelled a contract of GMR, a subsidiary of Bangalore-based GMR Infrastructure Ltd. The Indian company won the contract after a global tender in 2010 to upgrade the airport and construct a new terminal. 

The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) won elections by disparaging the mounting Chinese debt on the country; hence President Solih may cancel few contracts given to Chinese companies on unreasonable terms and conditions. President Solih also promised to reassess all the contracts. These cancelled contracts as well as new orders can also be awarded to Indian firms.

President Solih defeated President Yameen in an election in October 2018 although it was projected that Yameen who imposed emergency, raided Solih’s election office, denied visas to international observers including India, arrested and imprisoned his half brother and former ruler Abdul Gayoom, Supreme Court judge and police commissioner, will not permit the election commission to hold free and fair elections. Analysts also mentioned that Yameen would manipulate the elections as he had overt as well as covert support of China.

Nonetheless The Ministry of State Security (MSS), the intelligence and security agency of China, which look after the internal as well as foreign intelligence, had rightly analysed that if the elections are rigged there will be very strong international condemnation, hence it advised Yameen to contest the elections on the basis of developmental work completed during his presidency. However Maldives, which has a total population of about 440,000 people, was much against the massive construction activities and rising debt which may be between $1.5 billion to $3 billion.

Mohamed Nasheed, who served as president of Maldives from 2008 to 2012 and was the first democratically elected president and founder member of Maldivian Democratic Party, stated that Chinese Ambassador gave him in writing that Chinese loan on Maldives was $3.2.billion dollars. However later Chinese asserted that the figure was highly “exaggerated.” 

Even after the announcement of election results in which Solih of MDP defeated Yameen, the analysts apprehended that the latter would not handover the power. Hence the Indian, Ministry of External Affairs issued a congratulatory press release even before the formal announcement of election results by the commission. Not only India, Sri Lanka, United Kingdom and United States all congratulated Solih. The US Mission in Maldives issued the press release on September 24 congratulating Solih on his victory also mentioned that “We expect all parties to respect the will of the Maldivian people and support a peaceful transition of power through the November 17 inauguration”. The press release was tantamount to a veiled threat, that power should be transferred as per the scheduled programme.

In view of the strategic location of Maldives, China was increasing its influence in the country which was a cause of concern not only to India but for USA, Japan and other countries. China has opened an Observation Station at Makunudhoo, which can accommodate even submarine. China which has already taken two islands, is constructing a military base there.

The relations between India and Maldives declined, when Yameen extended undue favours to China and also imposed emergency in the country, which lasted 45 days. China, which considers India as its prospective adversary, constantly makes efforts to encircle India. Beijing made huge investments in India’s neighbourhood. Bangladesh already surrendered Chittagong port to China while Beijing has established a signal intelligence station at Coco Islands of Myanmar after taking it on lease. Recently China and Myanmar also signed a multibillion dollar agreement to develop a deep seaport in Kyaukpyu in Rakhine state. The port will be near to Vishakhapatnam port where India is developing a submarine base. Although Myanmar has reduced Chinese investment but the port is very important strategically.

Sri Lanka had to surrender Hambantota port to China on lease as it failed to repay the loan installments. Maldives had already given unspecified number of islands to China and it constructed a naval base in Marao Islands, where a missile fitted nuclear powered submarine is deployed. Pakistan which is passing through an economic disaster because of abetting terrorism in its neighbourhood, has already given control of Gwadar port. In fact China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which was projected as a great achievement will be a death knell for Pakistan. China has also opened its first overseas naval base at Djibouti in 2017.

Besides Maldives Chinese intelligence agency MSS also got another jolt in Sri Lanka where a constitutional crisis erupted when President Maithripala Sirisena dismissed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and appointed Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister. However Sri Lankan Parliament and judiciary rejected the move and Ranil Wickremesinghe had to be reinstated.  President Sirisena and Rajapaksa are known to be pro-China while Wickremesinghe has soft corner for India. Chinese intelligence which is known for its ruthless moves will not digest these two defeats so easily and will make all-out efforts to retain its hold in Male.

It is a diplomatic victory of India that the newly elected President Solih paid first visit to India and also mentioned that the country would adhere to ‘India first policy’ but Beijing would also try to win over the new president. China is already working on numerous important infrastructure projects inclusive of renovation of the airport and a bridge to link the airport with Male. The 70 percent loan of the island nation is of China and it has to pay an installment of $ 92 million a year to Beijing. The gross domestic product of Maldives is around $ 3.9 billion, while the annual revenue is $1.5 billion only, hence it will be difficult for Maldives to repay the debt. It will be difficult for India to compete with cash rich China therefore India should take the support of wealthy countries like Japan and European Union. The lone super power America will also like to contain China and extend its assistance to India.  

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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India will find it difficult to match Chinese influence in the Maldives

Although Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party has won the elections, India must tread carefully as Beijing has successfully struck deep roots which will be difficult for the new government to uproot, writes J.K.Verma for South Asia Monitor

By J.K.Verma  OCT 6, 2018

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Abdullah Yameen Abdul Gayoom, President turned tinpot dictator of the Maldives, finally accepted defeat in presidential elections held on 23 September, 2018. Yameen, who must demit office on November 17, has said he would quit and handover power peacefully to Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who won the election.

Solih, the combined opposition candidate, secured 58 percent of the vote while Yameen polled 41 percent. There was apprehension that Yameen, who had earlier imposed an emergency and leaned excessively towards China, would not allow free and fair elections. Police raided the Solih’s campaign headquarters just a day before elections and the European Union and United Nations refused to send observers. Yameen denied visas to journalists, especially from India, and international observers.

Yameen had assumed dictatorial powers and convicted the former President and Vice President for terrorism and jailed former ruler Abdul Maumoon Gayoom (his half-brother), Supreme Court judges and a former police commissioner. The voter registration process was doubtful and several opposition leaders had to flee the country. The US and EU threatened that if elections were rigged, sanctions would be imposed. So there was widespread apprehension that the polls would be rigged and Solih denied not allowed to win.

After the results emerged, India wasted no time welcoming the result and congratulating Solih on his victory. The Ministry of External Affairs, in a statement on September 24 said, “We welcome the successful completion of the third Presidential election process in the Maldives which, according to preliminary information, Mr. Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has won. We heartily congratulate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih on his victory and hope that the Election Commission will officially confirm the result at the earliest”. The press release further called the election result “the triumph of democratic forces”. 

The MEA, increasingly worried over the rising influence of China and Saudi Arabia on the Maldives, issued the statement before the election commission formally announced the results. Sri Lanka, United States and United Kingdom also issued congratulatory statement on the basis of provisional results to pressurise Yameen to not dare to negate the election outcome. The US press statement, while congratulating Solih, also contained a veiled threat to Yameen. 

Dictators always try to exploit the religious sentiments of people. In the same way, Yameen weakened democratic institutions and started radicalising the country. Gulf monarchies particularly provided generous assistance to construct mosques and madrassas to enhance Islamic education and Wahabi influence.

The per capita recruitment to Islamic State (IS) was highest from Maldives. When these hardened terrorists returned from Iraq and Syria, the government did not taken any action against them. Islamic fundamentalist outfits found protection from government and harassed the media, civil society and persons of other faiths with impunity.

The Maldives election result has strengthened democracy in Asia where democratic institutions like a free press, independent judiciary and free and fair elections are diminishing in many countries, including Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Thailand. It is easy for China to increase its influence in undemocratic regimes.

India was concerned about rising Chinese influence in the archipelago nation as China is trying to build a military base in a southern atoll and control crucial sea-routes. Reports claim that China has built a joint Ocean Observation Station in Makunudhoo, from where China can control important sea routes, the South China Sea and other inhabited and uninhabited islands. The observation station can accommodate submarines.

There was immense pressure on the Indian government from former President Mohamed Nasheed and some foreign countries to take military action, but New Delhi declined and opted to wait and watch.

Although Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party has won the elections, India must tread carefully as Beijing has successfully struck deep roots which will be difficult for the new government to uproot. Although Solih has promised to "reassess" all projects, China is involved in several major projects, including the $830 million renovation of the airport and a $400 million Bridge to link the airport with capital Male. Chinese loans make up roughly 70 percent of the country’s total debt and Male has to repay $92 million a year.

India cannot match China’s surplus cash reserves, so Beijing will go all out to entice Solih. Since India does not have such deep pockets and a vital issue of maritime security in the Indian Ocean is involved, New Delhi could seek assistance from Japan, United States and European Union.