Modi's visit to Russia

Aviation & Defence Universe

WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM

India Does It’s Balancing Act Well With Both U.S. And Russia

Old friends new relationship

• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also continues the act by maintaining equilibrium between India and Pakistan

By Jai Kumar Verma  

New Delhi. 10 April 2021. Sergey Lavrov the Russian Foreign Minister was in India recently and his next  stop was Islamabad. A Russian Foreign Minister visited Pakistan after nine years and that too just after calling on India, which had been previously a practice with U.S. visiting dignitaries.

Islamabad gave a red-carpet welcome to Lavrov. Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi received him and his delegation at the Islamabad airport and the Russian Foreign Minister also met Prime Minister Imran Khan and Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa. The main discussion was about Afghanistan as the peace talks between US and Taliban have reached at a dead-end and the chances of implementation of negotiated settlement became remote. Imran Khan emphasised on a negotiated political settlement in Afghanistan.

Khan also lauded Russia for hosting one day international conference in Moscow on March 18 in which the representatives of U.S., China, Russia, and Pakistan were present. In the conference India was not invited but the representatives of Afghan government and Taliban were present. The object of the conference was to make peace between Taliban and Afghan government. Pakistan which is passing from a difficult economic crisis also discussed about the economic relations, North South Gas pipeline project, defence and security cooperation and COVID-19 pandemic. Former U.S. President Trump fixed May 1 as the deadline of withdrawal of all U.S. troops from war ravaged Afghanistan however it appears that Biden administration may not adhere to the cut-off date. Nonetheless at present Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and other neighbouring countries of Afghanistan are worried as Islamic State (IS) is also strengthening itself. If IS comes to power in Afghanistan firstly it will render all assistance to diverse Muslim groups in these countries. Both Russia & China have sizable Muslim population which is fighting for their rights. Iran is a Shia dominated country and IS claims that Shias are pretend Muslims hence they should be eliminated, Pakistan also does not want the influence of IS to increase in its neighbourhood as organisations like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) will get support and it will strengthen itself. TTP is fighting against Pakistan government. 

Afghanistan watchers claim that Russia had not invited India in the March 2021 conference on Afghanistan on behest of Pakistan however Russian Embassy in New Delhi refuted this report. But with passage of time the differences between Moscow and New Delhi are enhancing on various international issues and Afghanistan is one of them. Russia’s clash with West especially with U.S. is increasing hence it is leaning more towards China while the relations between India and China are hostile and it effects India Russia relations also. The military relationship between Russia and China is increasing and besides conventional weapons Russia is also assisting China in fixing missile early warning system. There were also reports that China and Russia have signed a defence pact although the visiting Russian foreign minister denied the same. 

Lavrov was in India post Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla who visited Moscow in February 2021. During the visit Shringla discussed several important topics with Lavrov pertaining to regional and international issues and the strategy of both the countries in United Nations where Russia is a permanent member while India is a non-permanent member. The leaders also discussed special issues concerning both the countries.

In India he conversed about the bilateral ties of both the countries and also discussed various issues for the forthcoming India-Russia annual submit scheduled to be held later this year. So far both countries had 20 annual summit meetings by turns in which Indian Prime Minister and Russian President analysed all the issues and assessed the bilateral ties. Last year the annual summit was postponed due to COVID-19 pandemic.

Russia is a trusted friend and traditionally India’s leading arms supplier but slowly and slowly India started importing arms and ammunition from United States and Israel. In 2020 India bought weapons worth $3.4 billion from USA, while India became the biggest purchaser of Israeli weaponry and now acquires about 46 percent of Israel total arms exports.

In the recent visit Lavrov also mentioned that both the countries are  keen that more military equipment should be produced in India. It will give a big boost to ‘Make in India’ initiative of the present government. However, it will annoy U.S. which wants that no country should purchase weapons from Russia. U.S. has already warned India that it may put sanctions if India  purchase S-400 surface to air missiles from Russia. U.S. has already put sanctions against Turkey as it purchased S-400 system from Russia. India has already paid $ 800 million in 2019 to Russia and the missile system may be delivered in the end of 2021.  

In the joint press conference of both the foreign ministers at New Delhi Lavrov had not identified which weapons Russia would allow India to manufacture, nevertheless Indian sources mentioned that negotiations are going on about the production of Russian military helicopters in India. Lavrov stated that “We have confirmed our determination towards the development of military-technical cooperation” and the subject is dealt by an inter-governmental commission. India produced MiG fighter planes as well as Su-30 jets and both the countries are jointly producing supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles in India.

It is also interesting that John Kerry U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate also came to New Delhi on the same dates when Lavrov was in India and stayed in the same hotel.   John Kerry also served as United States Secretary of State from 2013 to 2017. Zamir Kabulov a high-ranking diplomat and Russian presidential envoy to Afghanistan also went to Pakistan along with Lavrov to discuss Afghanistan issue.

At present India is getting lot of military equipment from Russia however in view of developing close Russia China relations India should be careful. Russia is very critical of Quad and mentioned that it is anti-China and U.S. is pushing India in it. In view of the aggressive posture of China, Quad is important for India. China needs high technology weapons and also political support from Russia as it has antagonised several countries.

U.S. should also consider that now sanctions are not effective, in fact several times it helps China and counter-productive to U.S. Iran have signed 25 year economic and security agreement with China and the latter became an important commercial and defence partner. The U.S. sanctions on Iran harmed India and Japan while China was benefitted immensely. 

In view of close relationship of Pakistan with China, the Biden administration is giving cold shoulder to Islamabad. President Biden has spoken to many Heads of State but not spoken to Imran Khan, although U.S. invited 40 world leaders for online climate summit including India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan but Pakistan was not invited. Not only this, Kerry visited UAE, India and Bangladesh but missed out Pakistan. Same way US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin toured India and Afghanistan but avoided Pakistan. Imran government is realising it, but not touching this topic. Pakistan needs financial assistance from U.S. and its help in getting loan from international organisations like International Monetary Fund and World Bank, but Biden government is cold shouldering it due to its close relations with Beijing. Biden administration is also infuriated as Islamabad acquitted the killer of Daniel Pearl. Islamabad has to choose between Beijing and Washington DC as the rivalry between the two will increase and Biden government will not allow middle path to Islamabad.

Biden administration would also like to use India against China and will also try to persuade India to take more active role in Afghanistan may be by sending the troops. U.S. will also threaten India to impose sanctions if India buys S 400 surface to air missiles. Hence India should be careful although Delhi has problems with expansionist China, and it is member of Quad but in foreign relations no body is permanent friend or foe hence India should not fight China on instigation of U.S. As regards sending of troops to Afghanistan is concerned it may be a suicidal move as the terrain of Afghanistan is such that foreign forces do not emerge victorious. Secondly at present India’s image is of a helpful nation in Afghanistan and that image will be shattered if India sends troops in the country. India must buy S 400 missile system from Russia and should try to convince U.S. not to put sanctions as it may be counterproductive. India should not leave Russia which is a time-tested friend and Russia allows India to manufacture few equipment and transfer the technology while U.S. firms are very possessive about the technology. India should maintain cordial relations with both U.S. and Russia.       

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 

Aviation & Defence Universe

WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM

 

Modi’s Informal Meeting With Putin Is Significant

By JK Verma

New Delhi. 22 May 2018. After a successful two days informal meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Wuhan from April 27 to 28 Prime Minister Modi had an informal meeting with  Russian President Vladimir Putin at Sochi on May 21, 2018. The informal summit was held on the invitation of President Putin who termed Modi a “big friend”.  The analysts claim that the informal summit is significant as it occurred just two weeks after Putin took oath as president for the fourth time. Not only this at present  the relations of Moscow with Western world have also gone down considerably on several issues including Russian hostility with Ukraine, trouble in Syria, tensions in Afghanistan, Russian interference in US presidential elections and killing of a Russian spy in Britain.

The informal summit was essential as at present the warmth between India and Russia was dwindling. The economic growth of Russia slowed down due to the sanctions imposed by Western countries hence Putin is eager to augment economic cooperation with India away from defence and strategic relations. Russia was also noticing India’s growing closeness with US while India is also worried about Moscow’s expanding relations with Islamabad. Russia has not liked

Joint military exercise between Indian and US troops.

Russia, which is a longstanding, proven and dependable friend, is an important pillar of Indian foreign policy.  Hence this informal meeting was significant in which both the leaders exchanged views on international, national and bilateral issues. Modi thanked Russia for helping India to become member of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Russia is also assisting India to become member of Nuclear Suppliers Group and also endorses India’s efforts to become a permanent member of United Nations Security Council.

Both sides also discussed about military cooperation and gave special emphasis on increasing economic cooperation. The impact of Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) on Russia and on Indo-Russian defence cooperation was also discussed. CAATSA will impact Indian purchases from Russia especially five S-400 Triumf air defence systems which will approximately cost $4.5 billion. The deal is in last stage of finalization as there is some differences over the price have to be resolved. S-400 Triumf is the long range missile system which India will like to place on India-China border. Besides S-400 missile system Russia is also ready to supply Grigorovich class frigates to India.

Besides international, regional issues were also discussed including impact of US pulling out from the Iran nuclear deal and its impact on Russia and India. The law and order situation in Afghanistan and Syria was also discussed. The increasing threat of terrorism all over the world also figured in the discussions of both the leaders. In view of increasing civil nuclear cooperation between India and Russia both leaders discussed about extending civil nuclear cooperation with other countries also.

Prior to the informal meeting top Indian emissaries including National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale visited Moscow and held discussions with their counter parts. Indian Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also paid a three days visit last month. These visits were aimed to fix the agenda of the summit so that the warmth of Indo- Russian relations restored and also to clear the misunderstanding created because of a news-item in Russian paper that India allowed US personnel to visit Russian nuclear-powered submarine which is on lease to Indian navy.

Informal meetings are significant as both the leaders meet without diplomatic formalities, fixed protocol and predetermined agenda. Modi’s informal meeting with Xi Jinping was also a great success as both the leaders met six times with or without delegations in two days. The meeting with Chinese President was necessary as the relations became strained due to 73-days standoff in Doklam.

The summit with Russian president is momentous as it is not the regular annual summit because Modi met Putin in June last year and Russian President is scheduled to visit India this year.

Russia is the principal arms supplier to India although New Delhi bought some military equipment from USA, Israel and even purchased Rafael aircraft from France. According to Stockholm Peace Research Institute, India imported about sixty two percent of its military hardware from Russia in last five years. India is pressing hard to Russia for transfer of technology along with armaments. India which is the third biggest oil importer in the world after US and China is also emphasizing Russia for more participation in gas and oil exploration in the country as Russia has vast reserves of oil and gas. Russia’s Roseneft bought India’s Essar Oil which is largest foreign investment by Russia.

There are vast opportunities of enhancement of bilateral trade between India and Russia which is only $ 11 billion at present however it has potential to increase upto $30 billion by 2025. India can import diamonds, crude oil while India can export engineering goods, fertilizers and agricultural products to Russia.

There are immense possibilities of augmenting military and technical cooperation between both the countries. Indian defence personnel can have courses in Russian defence installations and vice versa. There is enormous possibility of enlarging nuclear cooperation as Russia can construct new power plants and more units can be added in Kundankulam power project.  Russia can export energy to power hungry India.

The Indo-Russian relations became little strained as there was a steep price rise of Admiral Gorshkov and there were also problems in supply of spare parts for Russian armaments but now the trouble is sorted out. Russia also shared sensitive technical details pertaining to nuclear submarine Arihant which indicates especial relationship between both the countries. Russia can supply advanced technology to India in several other important sectors.

India should be careful while developing proximity with US as Russia and China both view it with caution. After the end of cold war the inimitable relationship between India and Russia starting declining because of multifarious reasons including Russian support to Pakistan. Russia lifted the embargo of selling arms and ammunition to Pakistan and both countries conducted joint military exercise and Russia started exporting arms to Pakistan but it will not continue for long as diverse Islamic terrorist outfits are operating with or without connivance of Pakistan government and Russia is afraid of spread of terrorism in its Muslim populated areas.

Indian policy planners should also assess that relations between Russia and China are also improved and at present China is biggest importer of Russian defence equipments. Russia and China together can counteract US and West European countries. Russia gives precedence to Western Europe in comparison to India. Russia supports China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (B&RI) while India is opposed to it.

Russia also contracted about the manufacture of KA-226T helicopters at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) plant at Tumakuru in Karnatka. Russia also accepted to develop smart cities in Andhra Pradesh and Haryana. There are also several agreements between Russia and India in diverse fields including engineering, education & training, infrastructure, railways, science and technology etc.

India is also worried about the aggressive approach of US towards Iran as India intends to use Iran’s Chabahar port for strategic purposes and pledged to invest $500 million. US President Trump’s policy of “America first” is also harming Indian and Chinese firms hence India also wants to inculcate friendly relations with Russia and China. India has close trade relations with Iran and Russia and at present both are facing American sanctions. India is one of the biggest purchaser of Iranian crude oil. In view of fast changing international relations Prime Minister Modi’s informal visits in China and Russia are important although complete details of the meetings have not come in public domain so far.

 (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)