Pakistan
https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/pakistans-precarious-political-position-predicts-partition/
Pakistan’s
precarious political position predicts partition
·
Will unstable leadership
lead to a second split?
·
Is it high time Pakistan
Army got its act right?
By Jai
Kumar Verma
New
Delhi. 26 January 2023. History seems
to be on a path of repetition in Pakistan and this time like in the past, the
government of the day is oblivious of the impending national catastrophe. Not
to be left behind the Pakistani Army permanently gloating in its control of the
nation, has lost the hold over the pulse of the common man who has been the
long-time sufferer. Lessons learnt from 1971 should be revised with no delay,
if the powers that be have not avoided the rumblings of the nation.
In the
beginning Sheikh Mujib was in favour of a united, democratic federal Pakistan
but Punjab controlled army wanted to use East Pakistan (Present day Bangladesh)
as its colony and never wanted to give them equal rights. Yahya declared
elections as the military intelligence reported that no single political party
would win elections and Yahya thought that the control of Pakistan army would
not be watered down. But when Mujib’s party emerged as single largest political
party, he and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto refused to transfer the power to Mujib.
Pakistan
Army’s genocide, brutal repression, egos of few West Pakistan politicians,
incompetence and self-interest of military leadership is responsible for the
creation of Bangladesh. If military had honoured and implemented the results of
1970 elections, Pakistan would not have dismembered.
Again,
Pakistan has become vulnerable because of several reasons. At present Pakistan
is facing political instability although Imran Khan was ousted through a no
confidence vote and Shahbaz Sharif became Prime Minister, but this changeover
has further increased the political uncertainty. Although in the beginning
Imran Khan Niazi became Prime Minister because of assistance by army but later,
he gained public support while the present government was installed by
army. The elections are scheduled to be held in October 2023 and present
government is trying to increase its popularity, but it is failing on all
fronts. The general public is not only dissatisfied but a few places ‘food
riots’ also occurred. Imran Khan’s party PTI did well in recently held
by-elections. PTI is also controlling two provinces namely Punjab and Khyber
Pakhtunkhawa (KP) out of four provinces of the country. Now the important
question is that which party will come in power? Will Nawaz Sharif come back to
Pakistan and would lead PML (N). Will Imran Khan’s PTI secure majority without
the help of Army?
Secondly
Pakistan’s economic condition is precarious. According to Ministry of Finance
report the fiscal deficit is 1.5% of GDP during July-October 2022-23 while it
was 0.9% of GDP last year. In January 2023 Pakistan’s public debt is about
Rs.62.46 trillion ($274 billion) which is around 79% of gross domestic product.
The foreign reserve of Pakistan is $5.82 billion while debt repayment
obligations are more than $ 8 billion. The value of Pakistani rupee has considerably
dwindled, at present Rs.230 are equal to one dollar. Although economic crisis
is not new in Pakistan as the country produces less but spends more. However,
this time the crisis is more severe because of devastating floods and Russia
Ukraine war. The country got some relief because International Monetary Fund
(IMF) released $1.1billion loan, Saudi Arabia and UAE also gave financial
assistance. Islamabad has to pay back $73 billion by 2025 but it is not
feasible unless debt is restructured. The economic crisis enhanced
manifold because of floods in which more than 1700 persons were killed and
still more than 90,000 displaced people are not settled.
The present
Army Chief General Asim Munir took over in last week of November 2022 and
analysts are assessing the civil military relationship. Although General Bajwa
before relinquishing the charge of Chief of Pakistan Army stated that army
would remain apolitical, but Pakistan watchers know that it is not feasible.
Insiders reveal that army would try that no party gets clear mandate in the
forthcoming elections so that it can induct party of its choice.
TTP is the umbrella
organisation of several terrorist organisations which are active on Pakistan
Afghanistan border. The TTP’s main agenda is to overthrow the present
government through terrorist attacks and install a hardline Islamic government
so that strict Sharia laws can be imposed in the country. The TTP has a
stronghold in the tribal belt along Pakistan Afghanistan border and
ideologically it is close to al-Qaeda. Several TTP militants also escaped to
Afghanistan and joined Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP). At present
TTP has become very strong in the tribal belt and it controls large areas in
Waziristan. The truce between TTP and Islamabad is over and TTP has instructed
its multiple factions to attack Pakistan security forces, the situation in the
country has become quite grim. TTP which has support from Afghan Taliban and
wants to overthrow the present Pakistani government may declare Waziristan as
an independent country.
Besides the
threat from TTP, Pakistan is facing several other secessionist movements.
Balochistan, which is the biggest but most neglected province of the country,
is fighting for independence. Several separatist organisations of the province
including Baloch Liberations Front (BLF), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) are
fighting for an independent country. These secessionist outfits have full
support of the residents of mineral rich province. Sindhi nationalists also
want to secede from Pakistan as they feel that Punjabis are treating them as
second-class citizens and they want to establish Sindhudesh which would be a
separate country. Pashtuns of Pakistan and Afghanistan also demand for a
greater Pakhtoonistan.
Pakistan is
passing from a difficult phase hence both army and civil government should work
together so that the troubles can be sorted out. Islamabad should reduce its
expenditure on defence forces and should immediately stop its low intensity war
against India. If it starts trade with India both countries would be
benefitted. Islamabad should give more attention in the development of the
country instead of raising Kashmir issue in different national and
international forums as it is not of much use. Islamabad should also review its
relations with China as Chinese render assistance on stringent terms which
destroys the economy of the other country. If Pakistan does not cure its
problems soon it may face another disintegration.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life
member of United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely
the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/pakistans-self-created-dragon-ttp-blows-fire/
Pakistan’s self-created
dragon TTP blows fire
·
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan renounces ceasefire
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 29 December 2022. Pakistan’s Frankenstein Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP) has formally announced the renunciation of the unsteady ceasefire with
the government. TTP which is also called Pakistani Taliban, is an
umbrella organisation of several terrorist outfits. The TTP announced recently
that it is relinquishing ceasefire as security forces including intelligence
organisations are continuously attacking various outfits of the organisation.
TTP’s orders to its field units are,
“wherever you find an opportunity to attack, do proceed”. TTP also demanded the
release of several convicts included dreaded terrorists who were members of the
outfit. Although security forces have released several hundred prisoners but
refused to free few hardcore terrorists.
As a result of active mediation of
Afghan Taliban, Pakistan government and TTP concurred for the ceasefire in the
beginning of the year. However, both parties have not adhered to it in letter
and spirit. The security forces continued attacking TTP affiliates, while TTP
also killed more than 300 Pakistan security force personnel and their
informers. The ceasefire could not be prolonged as TTP has refused to yield
from its demands including the reversal of the merger of the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Pakistani
authorities made it clear that the merger of FATA in KP occurred in 2018 after
bipartisan consensus and constitution is amended accordingly, hence it cannot
be reversed. The TTP fighters have also refused to surrender their arms before
their return to Pakistan. Although several meetings were held but were of no
avail.
In July this year, a delegation of
Ulema led by Mufti Taqi Usmani visited Kabul and tried to convince the TTP
leaders to abandon their demand of separation of FATA from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(KP) and to surrender their arms, which again did not work.
The TTP fighters attacked Pakistan
security forces posted on Pakistan-Afghanistan borders and killed more than 20
Pakistani security personnel in April 2022. The TTP video-graphed the whole
incident and posted it on social media in which it was clear that TTP fighters
were carrying automatic weapons.
Pakistan government resorted to
airstrikes on TTP hideouts in Afghanistan. Islamabad also issued a stern
warning to Afghan government not to give shelter to TTP fighters. These
warnings combined with airstrikes pressed Afghan Taliban to force TTP for peace
negotiations. Nevertheless, recently Afghan Taliban as well as TTP both made it
clear that the TTP is operating from inside Pakistan and Afghans have nothing
to do with it as it is the internal matter of Pakistan.
Pakistan wants peace with TTP as it
fears that its fighters or splinter groups may join Islamic State (IS), which
will be very dangerous for the security forces. Islamabad is also contemplating
that, in case truce is not feasible with TTP then security forces may try to
have ceasefire with some splinter groups of TTP.
TTP was unhappy with the slow pace of
negotiation and constant attack on their cadres but the real jolt came when few
TTP leaders including Abdul Wali, alias Omar Khalid Khorasani were killed in
Afghanistan in August 2022. TTP unofficially called off ceasefire on 3rd September
and carried out several bomb and gun attacks. On 16 November TTP killed six
security personnel in Lakki Marwat district.
On December 15 deadly fighting broke
out at Pakistan Afghan border at Chaman-Spin Boldak crossing in which more than
six Pakistani civilians were killed. Pakistan side alleged that the indiscriminate
firing originated from Afghan border while Afghan side mentioned that the
firing started by Pakistan security forces. Before the current incident, firing
was also occurred at the same border on 11 December in which more than nine
Pakistani civilians were killed. The analysts claim that TTP after
relinquishing the ceasefire is attacking Pakistan forces as well as civilians.
Afghan Taliban are also unhappy with Pakistan as they feel that Islamabad is
interfering in their internal matters.
TTP formally pronounced forsaking of
peace just few hours after the announcement of the visit of deputy foreign
minister Hina Rabbani Khar to Kabul to meet Afghan Taliban leaders. The leaders
of ‘Haqqani faction’ have invited TTP to meet visiting Pakistan Minister but TTP
leaders refused to come for negotiation as they have lost faith in ‘Haqqani
faction’ who are too close to Pakistan. TTP is more aligned to ‘Kandhari
faction’ which is commanded by defence minister Mullah Yaqoob, who has refused
to meet Rabbani. Analysts claim that Mullah Yaqoob refused to meet Hina Rabbani
as Afghans wanted to snub Pakistan for, they feel that Islamabad has become
very close to USA.
The TTP pronounced cessation of
ceasefire a day before General Munir took over as Chief of Pakistan Army. It
was a blunt message to General Munir who is facing numerous problems that he
should negotiate with TTP to avoid multiplication of problems.
In recent past TTP has lost several
of its fighters in Afghanistan which increases its doubts that a faction of Afghan
Taliban might be assisting Pakistan government and they may connive with ISI to
destroy TTP hideouts in Afghanistan. The TTP leadership if disillusioned with
Kabul regime may plan to align with Islamic State which would be detrimental
not only for Kabul regime but also for Pakistan government.
However, TTP which has close
relations with Afghan Taliban has become quite emboldened after the latter came
in power in August 2021 in Afghanistan. TTP claimed that on 30 November in a
suicide bomb blast in Quetta, they killed more than three persons including a
policeman and injured more than 20 policemen and few polio worker. TTP has
strong presence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa especially in FATA area but the bomb
blast in Quetta indicates that the terrorist outfit has reasonable hold in
Balochistan too.
On 23rd December TTP
suicide bombers were on the verge of hitting out a high-value target in
Islamabad but an alert police official detected, challenged, and chased the car
in which TTP suicide bombers were travelling. The suicide bombers when chased
by security forces blew themselves near police headquarters in which one police
official was killed, four policemen and two civilians were injured. The TTP
terrorists entered the capital city of Islamabad although it is under high
alert. Rana Sanaullah the Interior Minister stated that “Had the car reached
its target, it would have caused heavy losses”. TTP took responsibility of the
blast and issued a statement that “We take responsibility for the suicide
attack against the enemy of Islam.” Pakistan security forces have killed more
than 25 TTP terrorists few days back.
TTP leaders feel that if Taliban can
bow down USA in Afghanistan, then they can overwhelm Pakistan also.
Islamabad also wants good relations
with Kabul so that its arch enemy India does not become strong in Afghanistan.
Islamabad is also worried, as after Taliban came to power in Kabul the
frequency of terrorist attacks in Pakistan has increased manifold. The strength
of terrorist outfits including al-Qaeda, Islamic State in Khorasan Province
(ISKP) and TTP has considerably enhanced. Pakistan does not like Kabul’s
cordial relations with Delhi but Islamabad should realise that Afghanistan is
an independent country and it cannot be treated as a client state.
Pakistan currently is facing multiple
problems of which domestic political problem is intense because of opposition
by former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The economic condition is deteriorating
rapidly and the recent flood was devastating.
On the international front Pakistan
should try to improve relations with Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, United
States, and other western countries. Improving relations with Turkey may not be
of much use. It is also necessary that Pakistan should avoid sending terrorists
to India, for regaining its own reputation.
Pakistan is home of several terrorist
outfits but TTP is the deadliest terrorist organisation in the country. In
fact, ISI has created a monster which is out of control and grown out of
proportion. After the withdrawal of USSR from Afghanistan in 1989, ISI has
organised and trained Pashtun tribes and made them a tough fighting force. The
Talibs (students) studying in madrassas including the ones controlled by ISI,
joined this force which is known as ‘Taliban’. After 9/11 attack when US led
NATO forces invaded Afghanistan, Pakistan sided with US and this angered Pashtun
tribes especially of Waziristan and they started opposing Pakistan security
forces. In 2007 Pashtuns constituted Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to fight
Pakistan security forces. The TTP fought bitter battles with Pakistan security
forces in which large number of security forces, civilians and TTP fighters
were killed.
TTP which was trained and equipped by
ISI was involved in more than 250 attacks on security forces since August 2021.
The most brutal attack was on a school in Peshawar in which about 150 persons
including 130 children were killed. The analysts claim that in 2022 there was
rise of more than 50 percent in terrorist attacks in which about 430 persons
were killed and 720 people were injured.
TTP’s main agenda is to overthrow the
present government and establish Islamic Caliphate which would impose harsh
brand of Sharia. TTP claims that it initiated defensive jihad against Pakistan
security forces. TTP attacked and killed large number of security personnel
when there was a ceasefire. Now when there is no ceasefire and Pakistan
government is facing multiple problems, the attacks would be more severe and
lethal. The attacks by TTP would be the biggest internal war which is spawning
within the country. This conflict is alarming as it would be difficult for
Pakistan forces to control Waziristan area and the TTP may demand for a
separate state of Waziristan.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based
strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and
member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/bajwa-leaves-a-tough-legacy-for-munir/
Bajwa
leaves a tough legacy for Munir
·
Pakistan’s new Army chief inherits thorny crown
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi 30
November 2022. Chief of Army Staff
in Pakistan is the most powerful person in the country, as army directly or
indirectly has ruled it since its creation in 1947. Pakistan’s next army
chief Lt. Gen Asim Munir is taking over when the country is passing through a difficult
phase. It is facing economic disaster and is in a complicated political
situation. There are internal as well as external challenges.
The new incumbent of the hot seat has not been much involved in internal
politics so far and the outgoing chief has started a rhetoric that that army should remain
out from the internal politics of the country. Not to forget that Bajwa himself
was deeply involved in internal politics and also formulated the foreign policy
of the country. Pak watchers clearly analyse that Imran Khan became prime
minister only because of the assistance rendered by the army and he was thrown
out because of the formidable army. Now on one hand Munir has to keep Imran
Khan out of power and on the other hand he had to answer that why civilian rulers
were repeatedly ousted from power by the army.
The new chief would have to deal with budget and trade deficits as well
as has to revive the civilian institutions. The inflation rate in October 2022
was 26.6 percent while in September it was 23.2 percent. The total debt and
liabilities are Rs. 62,500 billion. According to reports more than 50 percent
of country’s population is either ‘multidimensionally poor’ or is ‘vulnerable
to multidimensionally poor’. The investors’ confidence is eroded and they
feel that Pakistan is not heading towards a right direction. Sales of petrol,
diesel, cement, furnace oil, cars have declined considerably.
Pakistan has to repay $22 billion on account of foreign debt and the
country would lose $ 12 billion because of current account deficit. It means
external financing needs $34 billion. World Bank report mentions that Pakistan
would need $16 billion in recovery and reconstruction because of the
devastation done by floods. This estimate does not include the pandemics, food,
and water scarcity which the masses have to face after floods. Pakistan
is also facing risk of default which was 10 percent in April but increased to
75 percent in November.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan has selected Lieutenant
General Asim Munir as the successor of present army Chief General Qamar Javed
Bajwa. General Bajwa retired on 29 November after completing six years as Chief
of Pakistan army. Lt. General Munir was serving as Quarter Master General
before taking over as Chief of Army. On 23 November the army had sent the names
of six senior most Lieutenant Generals from which the Prime Minister had to
select one for the post of Chief of Army Staff. The list included names of Lt
Gen Asim Munir, Lt Gen Sahir Shamshad, Lt Gen Azhar Abbas, Lt Gen Nauman
Mehmood, Lt Gen Faiz Hamid, and Lt Gen Mohammad Amir. Choice for once fell on
the senior most serving general-Asim Munir. The cabinet meeting held on 24
November cleared his name for the next Army Chief.
The defence minister Khawaja Asif stated that the name of Asif Munir was
sent to President Arif Alvi for approval as he is the supreme commander of the
armed forces. Alvi was the leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and
he was made president when Imran Khan was the prime minister and head of PTI.
Munir remined head of two top intelligence agencies of Pakistan. He was
Director General of Military Intelligence for 21 months starting from early
2017. He became Director General of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) in
October 2021 but was removed by General Bajwa on behest of the then Prime
Minister Imran Khan. Munir was posted as Corps Commander at Gujranwala. In this
way Munir served as chief of two most important intelligence agencies of
Pakistan.
It may be recalled that Imran Khan did not take Munir’s telling him
about the corruption cases of the family of his wife Bushra Bibi. It was the
reason that Khan has been against the appointment of Munir as Chief of Army
Staff. On the other hand, Shahbaz Sharif consulted his elder brother Nawaz Sharif
and announced that senior most general would be appointed as chief of army.
Khan was pressurising government through long march to declare early elections
as well as Khan also wanted that Sharif should consult opposition parties also
in selecting the chief of army.
Munir is also close to Bajwa because as a brigadier he commanded Force
Command Northern Areas (FCNA) which was under X Corps which was commanded by
Bajwa. At present Bajwa also needs a supportive army chief as journalist Ahmed
Noorani revealed on the website Fact Focus that Bajwa his family including
extended family has amassed millions of dollars and possessed farm houses and
other properties in Pakistan and foreign countries.
After Alvi received recommendation from administration for appointing
Munir as chief of army staff he rushed to Lahore and consulted Imran Khan.
After getting clearance from Khan, he signed the letter same day. Pakistan
watchers claim that it was a critical time for Khan to decide whether he wants
confrontation with army or he is willing to reconcile. Khan has chosen the path
of reconciliation and permitted Alvi to sign the letter without delay. It was
also a face-saver for Imran Khan.
Asim Munir was head of ISI and architect of Pulwama attack on Indian
security forces in 2019, in which 40 valiant Central Reserve Police Force
(CRPF) personnel were martyred. The attack was carried out by Pakistan based
terrorist outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed (J-e-M).
The relations between both the countries became very tense and India
conducted the second surgical strike and destroyed terrorist training camp run
by J-e-M in Balakot. Indian Air Force planes entered Pakistan air space and
dropped bombs and missiles in Balakot which is located in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
This surgical strike is significant as it gave a terse message to nuclear armed
Pakistan that if it would not stop infiltrating terrorists, Indian security
forces would enter in their territory and would demolish the terrorist training
places. This surgical strike has also made it clear that India is not afraid of
their nuclear warheads.
Munir planned retaliatory attack on India after the surgical strike.
When Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman VrC was captured by Pakistan
forces and had to be released because of global pressure, he was one of the
important decision maker. Munir is an expert on Kashmir and has deep knowledge
of the terrorist outfits active in the valley.
Pakistan army survives on anti-India rhetoric and making false claims
that there is danger from India. Pakistan Army’s Chief cannot afford friendly
relations with India. Hence there are remote chances of good neighbourly
relations between both the countries. As Pakistan is out from the grey list of
Financial Action Task Force (FATF), it might galvanise terrorist attacks on India.
Indian security forces should enhance the vigilance so that ISI does not
succeed in another big terrorist attack. Pakistan may plan terrorist attack on
India to distract the public attention from day-to-day problems.
The new army chief has to face all these problems besides the internal
law and order problem created by Imran Khan. PTI is only generating slogans and
has no plans how these problems can be sorted out.
Besides these internal problems Pakistan is also facing external
problems. Pakistan is inculcating close relationship with Turkey which wants to
lead Muslim world. Hence its relations with Saudi Arabia and United Arab
Emirates are not very cordial. Both these countries were rendering financial
assistance to Pakistan. In nutshell Asim Munir is becoming chief of Pakistan
army when the country is facing multiple problems, hence he and civilian
government should work together so that the country comes out from this
difficult phase.
General Qamar Bajwa has passed on a thorny crown on General Asim Munir’s
head.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of
United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for
Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s.
He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/washington-helped-islamabad-come-out-of-grey-list/
Washington helped
Islamabad come out of ‘Grey list’
The Author
·
Trying to retune its ties
with Pakistan
By Jai Kumar
Verma
New Delhi. 03
November 2022. On 21 October the Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) has taken out Pakistan from its ‘Grey List”. FATF issued a statement
that “Pakistan is no longer subject to FATF’s increased monitoring process; to
continue to work with APG (Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering) to further
improve its AML/CFT (anti-money laundering & counter-terrorist financing)
system”. Pakistan was put in grey list of FATF in 2018 as it failed to check
the financial assistance to terrorist outfits. As the country was in FATF’s
grey list Islamabad was not getting financial assistance from International
Monetary Fund (IMF), Asian Development bank (ADB), World Bank, European Union,
and other financial institutions. At present Pakistan’s economy is passing from
a critical phase and it needed urgent financial assistance.
Pakistan’s
track record is so dismal that in past meetings of FATF it was saved by China,
Turkey, and Malaysia from downgrading to ‘Black List’. But in the current
meeting United States, United Kingdom and other western countries supported
Islamabad hence it instead of slipping to black list it came out from grey
list. India sharply reacted to the exit of Pakistan from grey list. The Ministry
of External Affairs (MEA) Spokesperson Arindam Bagchi stated, “We understand
that Pakistan will continue to work with the Asia Pacific Group on Money
Laundering (APG) to further improve its Anti Money Laundering (AML) /Counter
Terror Financing (CFT) system.” He also reiterated that “As a result of FATF
scrutiny, Pakistan has been forced to take some action against well-known
terrorists, including those involved in attacks against the entire
international community in Mumbai on 26/11”.
Pakistan
lobbied hard to come out from the grey list. In the latest meeting of
FATF, China, US and other western countries supported Pakistan. China blocked
the blacklisting of Hafiz Talah Saeed leader of Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (L-e-T) and
son of L-e-T Chief Hafiz Saeed. China rescued Pakistan five times in four
months in United Nations.
Both China
and US have declared each other as their main adversaries but they supported
Pakistan albeit with different motives. China considers India as its
prospective challenger hence it wants to weaken India. China’s long-term policy
is the containment of India and China is using Pakistan to achieve this. All
Chinese weapons, missiles and platforms are against India. China is Pakistan’s
biggest bilateral creditor and invested huge sum in China Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan claims that it has all weather strategic partnership
with China.
Besides
helping Pakistan in FATF, US also helped Islamabad in getting IMF loan.
Pakistani Finance Minister Miftah Ismail claimed that IMF sanctioned $1.7
billion loan and also extended the programme for a year more. US ambassador in
Pakistan visited Pak Occupied Kashmir and called it as Azad Kashmir.
Recently US
approved $450 million to service Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jets although India
objected for the same. US wants to keep Pakistan army happy as several times
civil administration speaks against US but Pakistan army always maintained
cordial relations with US.
Both US and
Pakistan share intelligence on Afghanistan. This time US left Afghanistan but
its intelligence organisations are monitoring the developments in Afghanistan
as US administration does not trust the present Taliban regime. US intelligence
agencies are keeping eye on Afghanistan through Pakistan and extermination of
al Qaeda Chief Zawahiri is proof of it. Afghan government has US designated
terrorists but US is not taking any action against them because of Inter
Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan.
On the other
hand, Islamabad also getting US assistance in curbing the rising terrorist
activities of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the outfit made hundreds of
lethal attacks on Pakistani security forces. TTP fighters are residing in
border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. TTP which is known as Pakistani
Taliban are getting support from Afghan Taliban.
President
Biden has fascination for Pakistan and its army. In 2008 Pakistan awarded US
Vice Presidential candidate Joe Biden and Republican Senator Richard Lugar
‘Hilal-i-Pakistan’ which is the second highest award in Pakistan. In 2011 Biden
as Vice President went to meet Pakistan army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kyani
to Rawalpindi, which is unprecedented. In November 2015 Biden as Vice President
invited Pakistan army chief Raheel Sharif in White House.
Pakistan
supplied ammunition to Ukraine through C-17 Globemaster of Royal Air Force of
United Kingdom. Pakistan took the risk of anger of Russia to please US.
In October
2022, General Qamar Javed Bajwa Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan made a five-day
visit to US. The visit was few weeks before his scheduled retirement. Although
few analysts claimed that Bajwa visited US as he wanted to ascertain US
reaction before getting one more extension. Strong critics of Bajwa claimed
that as he had close relations with US since he became Army Chief in November
2016 and he wanted the blessings of US before overthrowing the present civilian
government.
Nonetheless
the visit of General Bajwa was to reset the ties between both the countries
which were damaged badly by former Prime Minister Imran Khan as he continuously
blamed US for ousting him from prime ministership. Bajwa also visited Saudi
Arabia after removal of Imran Khan as the ties between both the countries were
damaged during his prime ministership.
In the
current visit Bajwa reassured US that relations between both the countries
would remain cordial even after he relinquishes the post of Chief of Army
Staff. He also took Chief of General Staff Lt. General Azhar Abbas who is among
the six important frontrunners for the coveted post of Chief of army staff.
General Bajwa also introduced Lt. General Abbas to important dignitaries in
Washington DC. Bajwa met US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and National
Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and discussed important issues pertaining to
defence. Bajwa emphasised that Pakistan is a trusted and tested friend of US
and cordial relations would benefit both the countries.
Bilawal
Bhutto foreign minister of Pakistan also met US Secretary of State Antony
Blinken on the sidelines of United Nations General Assembly session in
September this year. In the meeting he reaffirmed about the assistance of $56.5
million for flood relief as well as the additional $ 10 million of food
security.
Although now
Washington is also interested in repairing ties with Islamabad but there is a
trust deficit as US felt cheated in Afghanistan when overtly Pakistan was
helping US but covertly assisting various terrorist groups in Afghanistan
especially Haqqani network. These terrorist outfits were attacking US led NATO
troops.
Even when the
relations between US and Pakistan deteriorated the cooperation between defence
forces of both the countries continued as most of arms, ammunition and
platforms in Pakistan defence forces are of US origin. Large number of senior
officers of Pakistan defence forces have personal interests in US.
The national
security strategy of US released in October 2022 classified China as the main
threat to the country. Hence US is trying to undermine China and for that it
considers India as an important partner but as India follows an independent
foreign policy hence Washington is also trying to retune its ties from
Islamabad and wants to dilute China Pakistan relations. The annual bilateral
trade between US and Pakistan is around $6 billion and US is Islamabad’s biggest
trade partner while China is the largest state investor in Pakistan. Hence US
wants to have cordial relations with Pakistan but it does not want to replace
China as in that case US has to put very large amount in Pakistan.
Washington
has appointed Donald Armin Blome as US ambassador in Pakistan in April 2022.
The post was vacant since 2018. Not only this members of Congress and several
high-ranking US officials also visited Islamabad. In April General Bajwa stated
that Islamabad has “excellent” relations with US and Pakistan receives best
military equipment from US. Pakistan from several years was getting financial
assistance, supply of defence equipment, training from US and now when it is
passing from grave financial crisis Islamabad wants all types of help from US.
Biden’s
recent statement that Pakistan “may be one of the most dangerous nations in the
world” should not please much to Indian analysts. India should inculcate
self-reliance as both China and US is assisting Pakistan which is India’s sworn
enemy and has waged a low-intensity war against India. Delhi should not look
for short-term solutions but should plan long-term strategy. At present world
is passing from a turmoil. Russian Ukraine war is continuing, Taiwan is in
danger, animosity between US and China is increasing, Prime Minister of UK had
to resign within 45 days. World suffered economic disaster because of Corona
virus and several countries are facing economic disaster. Hence India should
emphasise on ‘Make in India’ programme and should make sincere efforts to
produce more and more weapons, arms, and ammunition so that it can lessen its
import of defence items. India should also enhance its defence export so that
it can achieve its target of export of defence items worth $4.87 billion by 2025.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of
United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for
Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s.
He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
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India protests upgrading of Pakistan’s F-16s
Courtesy : F16.net
·
US downplays the decision
By Jai Kumar Verma
The Author
New Delhi. 28 September 2022. On 7th of September
when Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) of US Department of Defense
announced that US has made a determination approving a possible Foreign
Military Sale to the Government of Pakistan for sustainment and related
equipment for an estimated cost of $450 million of its F-16 fleet, India was
not only taken by surprise but it also left a bad taste in the mouth.
India protested against the decision. Rajnath Singh, Defence Minister of
India conveyed to his US counterpart Lloyd Austin India’s concern about the
decision of providing sustenance package to Pakistan’s F-16 fighter aircraft.
India also lodged a strong protest with US Assistant Secretary of State Donald
Lu during official meetings in Delhi about Foreign Military Sales (FMS) of $450
million for supplying hardware, software, and spares to the Pakistani fleet of
F-16 Fighters.
It may be recalled that the former president Donald Trump in 2018 had
suspended military assistance to Pakistan. In a new year message in January
2018 President Trump had stated that “The United States has foolishly given
Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they
have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools.”
Delhi also complained that US has not forewarned it about the change of
its policy on Pakistan, which directly effects Indian security. India US 2+2
dialogue occurred on 7 September and maritime talks followed next day and US
announced this upgradation while these meetings were taking place with Indian
ministers in US.
Biden
Sharif friendship trumped Trumps decision
Biden’s administration has changed the decision and DSCA reported to the
Congress about the maintenance and supply of associated equipment of F-16 to
Islamabad. A DSCA press release mentioned that “The Government of Pakistan has
requested to consolidate prior F-16 sustainment and support cases to support
the Pakistan Air Force F-16 fleet by reducing duplicate case activities and
adding additional continued support elements. Included are U.S. Government and
contractor engineering, technical, and logistics services for follow-on support
of Pakistan’s F-16 fleet to include participation in F-16 Aircraft Structural
Integrity Program; Electronic Combat International Security Assistance Program;
International Engine Management Program; Engine Component Improvement Program,
and other technical coordination groups; Aircraft and engine hardware and
software modifications and support; Aircraft and engine spare repair/ return
parts; Accessories and support equipment; Classified and unclassified software
and software support; Publications, manuals, and technical documentation;
Precision measurement, calibration, lab equipment, and technical support services;
Studies and surveys; Other related elements of aircraft maintenance and program
support. The proposed sale does not include any new capabilities, weapons, or
munitions. The estimated total cost is $450 million.”
The DSCA also claimed that the proposed upgradation does not provide new
capabilities, weapons, and munitions. Hence it would not alter the regional
balance. The DSCA mentioned the clarification because India an important US
ally objected to this upgradation as Pakistan is not only its arch enemy but
Pakistan invaded India thrice within 75 years.
US wants India to play an important role in countering China which is
threatening the lone super power status of US. DSCA also mentioned that the
sustainment programme would help Pakistan in curbing terrorism. Meanwhile China
which considers India as its potential adversary has also supplied J-10C
aircraft to Pakistan.
Courtesy : Mehr
News Agency
US administration decided to overrule the previous decision of President
Trump about supply of military equipment to Pakistan when India refused to toe
US line of denouncing Russia for invading Ukraine. India also continued
purchasing armaments from Russia and at present also purchasing oil. India also
abstained from voting in UN Security Council on US proposal about deploring
Russia on aggression on Ukraine. It is astonishing that US is not supplying
F-16s to Turkey which is a NATO member while it is executing sustainment
programme with Pakistan.
Pakistan used F-16 aircraft when India did a surgical strike in Balakot.
Pakistan Air Force used F-16 aircraft and US missiles AIM-120 C-5 AMRAAM to
shoot down Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman’s aircraft.
US used Pakistan as vassal state as it is strategically located and its
leaders and generals work for the interest of US as several of them have
personal interest in US. US and other western powers also created an adversary
in the neighbourhood of India which continuously hampered it’s growth. It
clearly indicates that Biden administration has retraced its policy and is
grooming Pakistan again and would use it as a weapon against India.
US Department of State also defended and downplayed the upgrading of
F-16 fighter jets and mentioned that it would improve Pakistan’s military
action against terrorists. The State Office spokesman stated that “Pakistan is
an important counterterrorism partner, and as part of long-standing policy, the
United States provides life cycle maintenance and sustainment packages for
US-origin platforms.”
The upgradation of F-16 fighter jets has broken the ice between US and
Pakistan as relations between both the countries became quite tense and
Pakistan moved in Chinese camp. Pakistan which has launched a low intensity war
against India used foreign aid to fund terrorists and spread terrorism in
neighbourhood especially in India. Analysts claim that now US may continue
assisting Pakistan, as it may work as a deterrent to India.
Even 2+2 couldn’t deter US-Pak friendship
Nevertheless, some US watchers claim that this aid to Pakistan is a very
basic assistance and it is more from technical angle as this support was
necessary to keep the F-16 fleet flying. But its importance lies in the fact
that it indicates that US is ready to resume its relations with Pakistan and is
prepared to work on the issues of common interest. Although US wants that
Islamabad should make more efforts to curb terrorism and Pakistan’s Afghanistan
policy is also a bone of contention, nonetheless, it appears that Biden
administration wants to give one more chance to Pakistan and resume the
relationship. Recently US has also sent two important delegations to Pakistan
which also points out that Biden administration wants to work with Islamabad.
Pakistan armed forces have requested for much more assistance but US has
declined. But this does not negate the possibility of US giving the desired
assistance to Pakistan Army at an opportune time.
Reports also suggest that Pakistan informed US authorities about the
presence and location of al Qaeda Chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was killed by US
through drone attacks in Kabul. Islamabad also allowed US to use its airspace
for the drone attack. Afghan government has also indirectly indicated about the
involvement of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan in the drone
attack. The ISI chief Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum visited Washington in May
and Zawahiri was eliminated in July.
In last week of August, the Executive Board of the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a press release mentioning that the “the combined
seventh and eighth reviews under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan,
allowing the authorities to draw the equivalent of SDR 894 million (about
US$1.1 billion).” The current upgradation would not take away Islamabad
from Beijing as Pakistan is not only under heavy debt of China but the latter
has also supplied lot of equipment, arms, and ammunition to Pakistan.
An already existing all weather friendship
The sentiment in India is debatable. A faction feels that this US change
of policy towards Pakistan clearly indicates that US is an unreliable friend.
Washington is averse to the idea of development of India hence it always arms
Pakistan and Islamabad uses all these weapons against India. The other faction
states that India is the biggest defence market for US but the geopolitical volatility
of the region does give it an equal opportunity to generate revenue through
sales to the other countries’ growing military demands and any business man
would take on to this opportunity so why blame a nation for doing so?
Both these sentiments eventually are strong enough to stir the hornet’s
nest and make India realise that it needs to be vigilant to happenings in its
neighbourhood. Friendships, old friendships, and renewed friendships in the
Indian sub-continent cannot be taken lying down by India. America’s growing
need for its old friend Pakistan is indeed a matter of concern for India.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of
United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for
Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s.
He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
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Is Pakistan – Afghan Taliban honeymoon over?
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. August 2022. “Pakistan
attaches high priority to close friendly and cooperative relations with
Afghanistan and wish to maintain a broad-based, mutually beneficial
relationship. A peaceful, stable and prosperous Afghanistan remains in our best
interest,” this is how Pakistan describes its feelings for neighbour
Afghanistan. And for the first time in decades Kabul will have a pro-Pakistan
regime, was the general consensus when Afghanistan became Islamic
Republic of Afghanistan. What should have been a long drawn love affair , seems
to be getting bitter.
The honeymoon between Afghan Taliban
and Pakistan is over just within a year. The major differences between both the
countries came into surface. Afghan Taliban has continued their asistance to
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the security forces of both countries fought
because of age-old border dispute. Afghan government invited India for
completing the infrastructure projects.
The differences between both the countries have become so tense that on 17 August there was a bomb blast in a Sunni mosque in Kabul. According to press reports about 21 persons were killed while more than 30 persons were injured. The blast occurred at the time of evening prayers. No one took responsibility for the blast. The Islamic State (IS) has increased attacks after Taliban came to power as they are against Taliban rule and want to establish their rule. In the blast besides cleric Mullah Amir Mohammad Kabuli, several Taliban Mujahids were also killed. Officially Taliban spokesperson only mentioned that the “perpetrators of such crimes will soon be brought to justice and will be punished.” Kabul is also unhappy because the blast occurred in a Sunni mosque in capital city of Kabul and that too just two days after the anniversary of their coming to power. However few Afghan analysts claim that it is the handiwork of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) as they wanted to put pressure on Kabul. The possibility that ISI used IS for this blast cannot be ruled out. Afghans claim that the mosque was controlled by Taliban and Talban fighters were also present in the mosque at the time of blast hence it was a prime target for ISI.
Islamabad does not allow IS to
establish itself in Pakistan but ISI is using IS in other countries especially
in India and Afghanistan. Taliban are worried because IS has created Islamic
State in Khorasan Province or IS-K which is creating problematic security
challenge to Kabul. The ideology of IS-K suits extremist youths as it
propagates worldwide Jihad. Several extremist followers of Taliban have also
joined IS-K as its radical views are more appealing.
Although Pakistan is striving so that
the differences between both the countries do not come on surface but Taliban
ruled Afghan government made it clear that they do not recognise Durand Line as
international border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Taliban claim that 2,640
Kilometre Durand Line was wrongly carved out by British rulers. The Afghan
Defence Ministry spokesperson made it clear that Pakistan has no legal
authority to put barbed wire fencing along Durand Line as it divides the same
tribe.
Mullah Yaqoob head of defence
ministry made it clear that they have deployed Taliban fighters on the borders
and they would not allow construction of barbed wire fencing along Durand Line.
Taliban circulated a video in which they showed that an Afghan truck is
demolishing the fencing. Afghan Mujahids also claim that Pakistan security
forces deployed at the borders ran away leaving the construction equipment.
Islamabad alleges that TTP also supports Taliban in removing the border
fencing. Afghans have removed border fencing at several places particularly in
four provinces namely Kunar, Nimruz, Nangarhar and Helmand. There were series
of border skirmishes between Pakistan and Afghanistan forces even after Taliban
came into power in Afghanistan. The firings occurred between both the forces on
26 and 29 August and 24 December in 2021. In 2022 gunfights happened on 6 and
24 February as well as on 9 and 15 April.
An important reason of rising
differences between Kabul and Islamabad is because of TTP which enhanced
terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Kabul has turned down Islamabad’s request to take
stringent action against TTP mujahedeen. Islamabad thought that Taliban were
successful in capturing power in Afghanistan because of assistance rendered by
Pakistan hence Taliban should adhere to their instructions not only about
Durand Line but should also take severe actions against TTP. But Taliban
instead of taking any action against TTP, it is helping them and providing them
safe haven.
Taliban ideology is more near to TTP
as they proclaim to promulgate Taliban like Shariah in Pakistan. TTP has stepped
up its attacks on Pakistan security forces. Pakistan retaliated by airstrikes
in TTP camps located inside Afghanistan. But Pakistan security forces had
flawed intelligence and, in the airstrikes, instead of TTP fighters Afghan
civilians including children were killed. Kabul took the air attacks by
Pakistan quite seriously and summoned Islamabad’s envoy in Kabul and told him
that Kabul would retaliate, if in future Pakistan resorted to more airstrikes.
Pakistan has also lodged a strong protest to Kabul as terrorists are using
Afghan territory. Islamabad also threatened that if Kabul fail to prevent
terrorists from using their territory Islamabad may resort to more cross border
attacks.
Islamabad had to resort for airstrike
because TTP has not only established bases in Afghanistan but also using them
as safe havens before and after attacks on Pakistani security forces. Initially
Islamabad complained and requested Kabul to take action against TTP but instead
of taking action Kabul told Islamabad to address TTP’s complaints and Kabul
offered to mediate the negotiations. TTP has also launched a deadly Operation
‘Al Badr’ against Pakistan security forces from 2nd April
2022. Pakistan thought that airstrikes would put pressure on Kabul and the
Afghan masses would become against TTP. But airstrikes killed Afghan children
hence Afghans became hostile to Pakistan and Kabul has refused to bow down
before Islamabad. TTP is also helping Taliban in repressing Islamic State which
is emerging as a powerful force in Afghanistan, Ideologies of TTP and Taliban
are similar. TTP supported Taliban when they were fighting with Afghan
government and TTP leadership owe allegiance to Taliban leadership hence it is
difficult for Taliban to leave TTP.
Kabul is aware that at present
Pakistan is facing innumerable problems including Baloch rebellion, pressure
from ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan, differences in army which is an unifying
force. The economy of the country is on verge of collapse hence it may not like
to open one more front.
Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was
killed in a drone strike on 31 July 2022. He was residing in a posh area in
Kabul. Analysts believe that Zawahiri had protection from Taliban and ISI
helped US and provided information about Zawahiri. The killing gave bad name to
Taliban and it also increased the differences between Kabul and Islamabad.
Islamabad is also annoyed as Taliban
have invited India to come to Afghanistan and complete the unfinished
infrastructure projects. Afghan Foreign Ministry spokesperson Abdul Qahar Balki
stated that Afghan government has requested India to complete the projects.
India has already opened a diplomatic mission and it is expected that soon it
would be upgraded. He also mentioned that the trade between both the countries
has doubled and it would increase more. Afghan spokesperson also mentioned that
Afghan government is trying to revive Indian connectivity through Chabahar port
of Iran.
Pakistan is also suspicious about the
visit of National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to Moscow in this month. In the
visit Doval met his counter part as well as other dignitaries in Russia. He
discussed security issues, nonetheless the analysts claim that both of them
also discussed situation in Afghanistan. The meeting gave a message to Afghan
regime that they are not against Taliban but wants to eliminate terrorist
outfits like al Qaeda and Islamic State.
It is clear that Taliban regime would
not accept the dictates of Islamabad and would try to develop cordial relations
with other countries especially India which would not be liked by Pakistan.
India should continue its assistance to Afghanistan as strategically Kabul is
important for Delhi.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based
strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and
member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com).
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Is Pakistan Army a uniting force in the
country?
The Author
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 24
July 2022. Pakistan was carved out from India in 1947 under the two-nation
theory which is an ideology of religious nationalism. According to the two
nation theory Hindus and Muslims are two distinct nations with different
religions, customs, and traditions, therefore people of both religions cannot
live together hence Muslims should be given a separate country where they can
follow Muslim religion and can live according to their customs and traditions.
However, the myth
of two nations theory was busted in 1971 when a separate country namely
Bangladesh was carved out from Pakistan. The creation of Bangladesh elucidated
that people of different culture, language customs and traditions cannot remain
united only through religion.
The creation of
Bangladesh has strengthened several separatist movements in Pakistan. These
separatist movements are spawned because of ethnic and regional nationalism,
exploitation, and suppression by Punjabis. The residents of these areas claimed
that Punjabi dominated central government is not making equal development of
all parts of the country.
At present Pakistan
is facing secessionist movements in Balochistan, Balawaristan and Sindh. The
ethnic Pashtuns also demand “Pashtunistan” which would be a separate homeland
for Pashtuns. They want to carve out an independent country namely
“Pashtunistan” which would contain Pashtun majority areas of Pakistan as well
as Afghanistan. Pashtuns claim that “Pashtunistan” is their historic homeland
which unlawfully divided by Britishers and created a 2,450 K.Ms Durand Line.
However, from few years the movement for “Greater Pashutunistan” is at back
burner.
Sindhis also want
to secede from Pakistan and fighting for an independent ‘Sindhu Desh’. They
claim that Sindh was an independent country known as ‘Sindhu Desh’ in 711 AD
under Raja Dahir. Sindhis claim that Punjabi dominated Pakistan is annihilating
their culture, traditions, language, and values. The movement got impetus in
1970 under the leadership of GM Syed. Sometime back they have also organised
rallies in Sindh to celebrate the birth anniversary of GM Syed who is the
founder of modern Sindhi nationalism. The demonstrators carried play cards with
pro-freedom and anti-government slogans.
The demand of
separate nation is increasing and several nationalist parties and their leaders
are raising the demand of independent Sindhu Desh. Jeay Sindh Freedom Party
(JSFM) has organised several demonstrations in Sindh province. The JSFM leaders
raises the issue of massive Chinese incursion in Pakistan. Chinese are
exploiting the vast mineral resources of the country.
Balochistan is the
largest province of Pakistan and rich in mineral resources. It contains 40
percent of Pakistan’s natural gas production and has world’s biggest copper,
gold, and petroleum reserves. However, its resources are exploited by Islamabad
and it has become the poorest province in the country. Insurgency in
Balochistan started just after creation of Pakistan and forcible merger of
Balochistan by Pakistani army. Khan of Kalat was forced to sign the instrument
of accession. There are five phases of insurgency and the duration and ferocity
of uprising lasted longer, covered more areas, and were participated by more
people than the previous insurgencies. The fifth phase started in 2003 and it
is still continuing. The current revolt is more violent and it is against
Chinese megaprojects also. Balochis claim exploitation, economic and social
underdevelopment, atrocities by Pakistan army, Chinese mega projects through
which Islamabad wants to change the demography of the area.
The residents of
Gilgit and Baltistan which is also called as Balawaristan also demand for a
separate nation. Balawaristan National Front (Hameed Group) (BNF-H) and other
groups like (BNF) of Nawaz Khan etc. are constituted. These groups either
demand for independent country or autonomous region within Pakistan.
The residents of
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) also want to secede but according to local laws
no political party can contest elections with secessionists leanings.
The Urdu speaking
Muhajir community in Pakistan is totally exploited hence they want to carve out
a separate state in Pakistan for Muhajirs. As there is lot of resentment hence,
they changed the demand to Muhajir Suba (Immigrant province) but Islamabad
believes that once they get separate province, they would start the fight for
an independent country.
Not only this
residents of South Punjab which is also known as Saraikistan are also unhappy
and claim that they are being exploited by central as well as state government
and their language and culture is at stake hence, they want a separate
province.
Pakistan army is
the most dominant force and Chief of army is the most powerful person in
Pakistan. At present Pakistan army is keeping the country united and preventing
the numerous secessionist movements. The then Pakistan army chief General
Ashfaq Parvez Kayani stated in April 2013 at the Pakistan Military Academy Kakul
that “Let me remind you that Pakistan was created in the name of Islam and
Islam can never be taken out of Pakistan. However, Islam should always remain a
unifying force. I assure you that regardless of odds, the Pakistan Army will
keep on doing its best towards our common dream for a truly Islamic Republic of
Pakistan, as envisioned by the Quaid-i-Azam and Allama Iqbal,”. He further
mentioned that “let there be no doubt that with a strong Pak Army and the
nation standing with it united, no harm can ever come to Pakistan.”
Pakistan is a
nuclear state hence world at large is also worried about the safety and
security of the nuclear warheads. The warheads as well as technology should not
fall in the hands of some radical, extremist group which can endanger the world
peace. Pakistan army assures the world that the nuclear arsenal is safe under
their command.
“The primary
objective and constitutional mission of the Pakistan Army is to ensure the
national security and national unity of Pakistan by defending it against any
form of external aggression or the threat of war.” Not only this Pakistan army
also acts in case of internal disturbances, whether that is law and order
problem, emergencies, or national calamities.
Pakistan army
projects itself as the saviour of the country and claims that it played an
important role in keeping the different nationalities together. It also
mentions that as it consists of people from all the states, it develops the
feeling of nationhood.
Army has convinced
the masses that India has not accepted its division and would try to annihilate
Pakistan that’s why country needs a strong army to defend itself. Army as well
as Islamist extremists have also brainwashed the country that Kashmir which is
a Muslim majority state would be merged soon in Pakistan. They also
proclaim that Khalistan would be carved out from India and that would be the
revenge of Pakistan’s division i.e. creation of Bangladesh.
Pakistan army does
not have faith in the civil government and controls not only the important
departments but also formulates the foreign policy of the country. Particularly
Pakistan’s relations with China, USA and important Muslim countries are
governed according to the wishes of army.
The opposition of
India is a big unifying factor in Pakistan and army exploits the anti-India
feelings. The ‘idea of Pakistan’ means different from India or oppose India.
Pakistan’s intelligence agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) which is a
part of Pakistan army and headed by a serving Lieutenant General has launched a
low intensity war against India. The ISI propagates that India is suffering
with several internal problems and Pakistan can exploit them.
Pakistan watchers
point out that although army is a big unifying force and it has the power of
gun hence the general public is afraid of it. However, there is rampant
corruption in armed forces and the army officers are leading a lavish life
style while public is suffering because of acute shortage of essential
commodities. Hence if army does not change its way there can be uprising
against the army and the secessionist forces would take the advantage of it.
Besides
secessionist movements Shia Sunni gulf is also increasing and there is acute
water scarcity, escalating pollution, inadequate medical care, illiteracy, and
extremism is increasing, country is suffering from population explosion,
economy is on ventilator, education system is in shambles, rising debt,
political system is at the verge of collapse. Pakistan army with the help of
political parties should make sincere efforts to solve the innumerable problems
country is facing otherwise first the country may go bankrupt and then the
possibility of more disintegrations cannot be ruled out.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based
strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and
member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
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Will Shehbaz Sharif bring a new
morning to Pakistan’s dark night? - ADU By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 27 April 2022.
Imran Khan got the dubious distinction of becoming the first Prime Minister
of Pakistan who was… www.aviation-defence-universe.com |
Will Shehbaz
Sharif bring a new morning to Pakistan’s dark night?
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 26 April 2022. Imran Khan got the dubious distinction of becoming
the first Prime Minister of Pakistan who was ousted through a no-confidence
motion. He was not able to complete his full term like all other previous prime
ministers of the country. The National Assembly of Pakistan elected Mian
Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif as the 23rd Prime Minister on 11 April.
Sharif is the President of Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and is younger
brother of Nawaz Sharif. The latter became the prime minister thrice but never
allowed to complete full term. Nawaz Sharif was a prominent politician of
international repute, hence Shehbaz Sharif always lived under his shadow and it
was the reason that in 2017 he refused to become the prime minister of the
country. At present Maryam Sharif the daughter of Nawaz Sharif is number one
crowd puller while Shehbaz Sharif comes at number two. Consequently, Shehbaz
Sharif has to display his authority in government as well as in the party. In
2023 parliamentary elections he may face a challenge not only from other
political parties but also from the political successors of Nawaz Sharif.
Shehbaz Sharif has a difficult task to perform as
he inherited a shattered economy, an isolated country where all old friends
including United States, Saudi Arabia and even China are against the policies
of Imran Khan. The all-powerful Pakistan army was also not supporting Imran
Khan, major political parties were against his regime and the civil
administration is at the verge of collapse. Sharif has to give quick results as
the public is losing patience and inflation has increased and public is facing
problems because of rising prices of essential commodities.
The term of present army chief General Bajwa would
be over in November this year and he already declared that he does not want
another extension. Sharif had to select an army chief which is an important
task, as in Pakistan he is the most powerful person. Imran Khan lost power
because of his clash with General Bajwa, on many issues including the
appointment of Chief of Inter Service Intelligence (ISI). Khan forgot that he
was the creation of army and wanted to dictate terms to General Bajwa.
According to rumours prevailing in social media, Imran Khan wanted to sack
General Bajwa and planned to appoint Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed as Chief of
army but before he could have issued the orders, General Bajwa and ISI chief Lieutenant
General Nadeem Anjum got the information and went to P.M. house and threatened
Imran Khan of dire consequences if he peacefully does not handover the power to
his successor.
In view of
above Shehbaz Sharif has to be very cautious in appointment of next army chief.
He should also keep in mind that the past experiences of his elder brother Nawaz
Sharif with army chiefs were not very pleasant. Sharif would also like to get
rid of President and other Imran loyalists from the administration before dissolving
the National Assembly and giving it to the caretaker government. Few appalling
laws have to be abandoned, governors have to be replaced, PML(N) headed
government has to be installed in Punjab. The dissolving of all four provincial
assemblies before national assembly elections is also essential and for that
concurrence and assistance of all coalition partners is required.
The biggest challenge of Sharif is to resolve the
economic woes of the country as it needs a major overhaul. Sharif family has
close relations with Saudi Arabia and also considered amenable by Chinese and
Americans hence Pakistan may get financial assistance but that would be a
temporary relief. Pakistan needs harsh decisions including withdrawal of
subsidies from several items including petroleum products. Inflation is
increasing and Pakistani rupee is losing in comparison to dollars. The
economists feel that soon a dollar would be equal to 200 Pakistanis rupees.
Pakistan watchers feel that Sharif may opt for
early elections as clinging to power till August 2023 and taking hard decisions
and then going for the elections may be disastrous for PML(N). Sharif may like
to dissolve the National Assembly and go for the early polls so that the hard
decisions are taken by the caretaker government which may be manned by
technocrats. Nevertheless, in this a risk is involved that the caretaker
government with the help of army may like to extend its tenure under the garb
of resolving multiple issues of the country.
Sharif has to amend the
foreign policy of Imran Khan as it was calamitous. He blamed United States for
his ouster, criticised China for China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Saudi
Arabia which always rescued Pakistan financially became angry as Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi issued a statement
against Saudi Arabia for not organising a meeting of Organisation of the
Islamic Cooperation (OIC) on Kashmir. Khan also lost favour of Iran as the
latter had not permitted Pakistan Embassy to observe black day and hold public
meetings on 27 October as the anniversary of accession of J&K in India. He
issued few statements appreciating India but these assertions were disliked by
army. His visit to Moscow on the day Russian forces entered Ukraine also went
against him. Pakistan army cannot afford to annoy U.S. as most of its supply is
from U.S. and the children of Pakistani generals are settled in western
countries. Sharif has to inculcate better relations with Afghan Taliban as they
are annoyed because of the visit of Lt. General Faiz Hameed when he was ISI
chief. Taliban do not want interference in their internal matters. Sharif
administration have to be vigilant so that Afghan Taliban does not start
assisting Pakistani Taliban.
Prime Minister Modi congratulated Shehbaz Sharif
for his becoming Prime Minister and Sharif also responded. Both the leaders mentioned
that they want peace in the region but in view of deep animosity between both
the countries the chances of reconciliation are remote. Though trade ties with
India may boost Pakistan’s economy but politically it may not suit PML(N), as
soon the party has to face an election.
The political parties of coalition have conflicting
interests and all joined hands just to oust Imran Khan and as he is overthrown now
all parties would prepare to win elections scheduled to be held in 2023. They
would work for their party benefits and not in the interests of coalition or Shehbaz
Sharif. It would be a Himalayan task for Sharif to carry this coalition and for
that he may have to devote lot of time and would have to make compromises. The
possibility of early elections cannot be ruled out.
Sharif administration would work overtime to resolve foreign policy
issues but the priority would be domestic issues particularly the revamping of
economy because of the coming elections. Sharif has already started administrative
reforms. Firstly, he enhanced the office hours of government offices to 10
hours and announced a six days a week. He himself reached office at 07 AM. He
planned a visit to Saudi Arabia where after performing Umrah he would meet
members of Saudi Royal family. Sharif family always remained close to Saudi
Royal family. Sharif also
announced that he would resume talks with International Monetary Fund (IMF) to
get a bailout package. The negotiations would commence from the point where it
had been suspended. In nutshell Shehbaz Sharif should be careful as he is
facing all types of challenges as Imran Khan was not only unsuccessful but has
left a devastated country.
Jai Kumar
Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services
Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in
the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM of Constitution and law, and the burial of t
Are Imran Ahmed Khan
Niazi’s days in power numbered?
Will this smile last?
· Will 28th March see a new Prime Minister in
Pakistan?
By Sangeeta Saxena
New Delhi. 25 March 2022. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan would a sighed
in relief today when the National Assembly’s crucial session on a no-trust
motion against him was adjourned without tabling of the resolution. National
Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser said that the session was adjourned till 4 pm on
March 28 due to the demise of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf lawmaker Khayal Zaman on
February 14. All eyes are now on the coming Monday when the fate of the
incumbent Prime Minister will unfold.
Will history repeat itself? In the
chequered history of Pakistan no one has completed a full term as prime
minister. Pakistan was carved out from India in 1947 and after that 19 men and
women were elected or appointed as prime minister of the country but nobody
could serve the full term. Although Nawaz Sharif served thrice as prime
minister but had to demit the office all the three times before the completion
of full term.
Pakistan’s blemished democracy is
encountering a difficult time. The opposition parties have joined hands and
working under the umbrella of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) with the sole
aim of overthrowing Prime Minister Imran Khan. The opposition is alleging that
Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi the Prime Minister, is responsible for the present
economic disaster of the country. The opponents also accuse that Khan and his
cabinet failed to take timely decisions which kept deteriorating the economic
situation. The Khan administration also failed to manage Covid-19 pandemic, in
which large number of people died and the ailing economy was devastated.
The all powerful General Bajwa
The opposition accused that the
inflation has increased and price rise was unprecedented. Food prices have
increased about 20 percent and growth rate was minimal in comparison to the
countries like Nigeria, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and India. It took advantage
of rising prices and instigated the masses, knowing fully well that economic
crisis would not be over with the departure of Imran Khan and whichever the
government comes it will have to take hard decisions .
The total strength of the house is
342 and opposition needs 272 votes to dethrone Khan. His party, Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has 155 members and has support of 23 members of
different political parties. PTI needs minimum of 172 votes to defeat the no
confidence motion. The trouble arose when about 24 members of PTI revolted
against Khan and threatened to vote against him in the No Confidence Motion
submitted by 100 Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples
Party (PPP) legislators on 8 March, before the National Assembly of Secretariat
. The National Assembly was convened on March 25 and voting will now be done on
March 28.
Raja Riaz and Noor Alam Khan openly
criticised Imran Khan and stated that they would vote against the Prime
Minister. Dr. Ramesh Kumar Vankwani who received threats from ruling party is
also staying in Sindh House. The dissidents have taken shelter in Sindh House
in Islamabad as it is under control of Sindh Government which is ruled by PPP.
The PTI members allege that the dissident members were kidnapped and are being
forcefully kept in Sindh House.
Imran Government moved to the Supreme
Court of Pakistan on 21 March to disqualify the dissidents of PTI before the
voting on No Confidence Motion in the house. PTI wants to disqualify the
dissidents for life. However, the chances of it is remote, as disqualification
is possible only after they vote against the party and once the No Confidence
Motion is passed Imran Khan would have to demit the office.
What is evident is that serious
differences have cropped up between Imran Khan and Pakistan Army Chief General
Bajwa supported by ISI Chief Lt. General Anjum. Hence both of them have decided
that Imran Khan should be dethroned. General Raheel Sharif former Chief of
Pakistan Army and one of the most popular four-star general in Pakistan also
came to Islamabad , met General Bajwa and tried to convince him, not to oust
Imran Khan. General Sharif is at present serving as Commander-in-Chief of the
Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC), which is a 39-nation
alliance of Muslim countries. The headquarters of the IMCTC is at Riyad, Saudi
Arabia.
The
missing vibes
Meanwhile Imran Khan also met General
Bajwa to salvage the situation and patch up. Why is questionable? When army
spokesperson mentioned that army would remain neutral in the no confidence
motion, Imran Khan retorted in a rally in Pakhtunkhwa that humans take sides
and “only animals are neutral”. Brazenness or foolishness? Although army had
not responded to it but has definitely taken note of it. No prime minister can
survive in Pakistan without the support of the all powerful army and does
Imran Khan need a reminder?
Bajwa also cautioned Imran Khan not
to use foul language against opposition leaders but Imran Khan refused to abide
by the advice. The army sources reveal that Bajwa is maintaining neutrality
over no-confidence motion and both Imran Khan and Bajwa discussed Organisation
of Islamic Conference (OIC) summit, Balochistan issue and the worsening
economic and law and order situation in the country. Nonetheless the main issue
was the forthcoming no confidence motion and Imran Khan wanted to again come
under the good books of General Bajwa after having been the errant boy for
quite some time. But it is evident that Gen Bajwa has decided that Imran Khan
should be dethroned.
Imran Khan as a show of strength has
called for a big rally in Islamabad on 27 March. He claims that more than one
million people would gather in the capital. He plans to hold this rally at
D-Chowk which may generate law and order problem also.
Imran Khan and his followers are
becoming desperate and adopting unconstitutional and aggressive means. The PTM
workers stormed into Sindh House where the dissident members of PTM are hiding.
The PTM workers shouted slogans against the dissident PTM members.
Will
these associations save Imran?
The million dollar question is with
the next general elections scheduled in 2023 will the all powerful army give
him some more time or will they be happy to see a new man at the helm of the
nation. Najeeb Haroon the founder member of PTI also suggested that, “The PM
(Imran Khan) should resign and bring forward any other member from the party to
become prime minister”. He also told an important news channel that, “The
country can no longer sustain instability and PM Imran Khan must shed his
stubbornness and somebody else from within the party be brought forward as the
prime ministerial candidate.”
Another school of thought is that the
ouster of Imran Khan at this time will further damage Pakistan’s economy. The
new incumbent would avoid taking hard decisions and avoid putting new taxes
which would further ruin the economy of the country. At present it is
essential to take hard decisions and impose taxes so that the economical health
of the country is improved. The law-and-order situation would also decline and
foreign direct investment would further lessen. The terms and conditions of IMF
would also become more stringent as government is not enhancing the taxes as
recommended by the IMF.
If Imran Khan is not able to get back
into the good books of the army, he may resign once the 48th session
of the Council of Foreign Ministers of Organisation of Islamic Cooperation
(OIC) is over. The situation is fluid but the chances of survival of Imran Khan
are remote. Army would select a new person who can be from PTI or from the
opposition parties. The man who is the focus of all attention and could be the
next to have the blessings of the Army is Shahbaz Sharif PML(N) leader and
younger brother of Nawaz Sharif. He may become the prime minister as in past
Sharif family has been known to be very close to the Army establishment.
India is watching these developments in Pakistan
very keenly as changes in Islamabad will also mean giving a new look to it’s
Pakistan policy. A hand in glove with Pakistan Army Prime Minister will make
India vigilant as strong lessons from the past have taught it to be vary of
such a situation. Kargil is not that old a history that India forgets to learn
lessons and draw imperative strategic conclusions from it. India has followed a
consistent and principled policy towards Pakistan i.e.: in keeping with its
“Neighbourhood First Policy”, India seeks normal neighbourly relations with
Pakistan in an environment free from terror, hostility and violence. India is
committed to address issues, But the otherside must also share the same
eagerness. So it is an interesting observation time for India and rumblings of
change in Islamabad will mean a new policy framework for India.
Aviation & Defence Universe
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FATA is one of the world’s
most lawless region
·
ISI is using it to
fulfil its nefarious designs
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 18 December 2021. Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) which is
the world’s most unruly region, is considered as the nucleus of the
international terrorism, which not only imperils the peace of neighbouring
countries but is also calamitous for the whole world. FATA is the home of
several terrorist organisations including umbrella organisations like
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Al
Qaeda and Islamic State. Several small and unknown terrorist groups and
sub-groups operate and take refuge in the area.
In May 2018 Pakistan parliament
passed a significant legislation under which the semi-autonomous status of FATA
was abolished, modern governance was introduced and the region became part of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The draconian rules of British empire were obliterated
under which the whole tribe was punished because of the crime of an individual
of the clan. The inhabitants of the area were forced to guard the government
property.
Pakistan army tried to curb the terrorism
sometimes on its own and at times on the insistence of United States but failed
due to stiff resistance by the terrorist outfits. The army initiated about 10
operations against terrorists. However, the latest was Zarb-e-Azb in 2014 under
which about 500 Pakistani soldiers and about 3,500 terrorists were killed and
about two million people were displaced, several homes, schools and hospitals
were destroyed.
The merger of FATA in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (KP) may also be good for the women. Although Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is
also a backward area but the cases of atrocities on women and of ‘honour
killings’ are much more in FATA than KP.
The FATA which is a mountainous
bolthole for diverse terrorist outfits is bordered by Afghanistan, Balochistan
and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It has two types of areas Tribal Agencies and Frontier
Regions. There are seven Tribal areas including Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram, North Waziristan and South Waziristan while the six Frontier Regions consists
of FR
Peshawar, FR Kohat, FR Bannu, FR Lakki
Marwat, FR Tank, FR Dera
Ismail Khan. The area is sparsely populated and
about 2 percent of Pakistan population reside in the region. More than 95
percent population lives in the rural areas and Afridi, Mohmand, Tarkani, Mahsud, Dawar, Bettani, Sherani,
Turi, Orakzai, Bangash, Shinwari, Safi, Wazir, and utmanzi are the main Pashtun
tribes. More than 99 percent population of the region follow Sunni Hanafi Fiqh.
There are also 20 thousand Christians, 20 thousand Sikhs and 10,000 Hindus.
The former FATA region is one of the
most neglected area of Pakistan and according to a 2010 survey the per capita
income was only $663 and about 66 percent population was below poverty line.
Although the region had 2.4 percent of the country’s population, but it
comprise of only 1.5 percent of Pakistan’s economy. Smuggling of opium and
other contraband is rampant in the region.
The region is backward, and residents
are suspicious about the activities of foreigners including NGOs. It was
difficult to provide aid by international NGOs and even the workers of
Pakistani NGOs were attacked by Islamic fanatics. Ali Mohammad a Peace
Committee member was killed in December 2017 by TTP, and a spokesperson of a
terrorist outfit threatened that the members of Peace Committees would be
targeted. In November same year TTP killed five peace committee members and two
were wounded. The terrorists also killed the civilians sympathetic to security
forces.
Pakistan government spends minimum
money in the region and the literacy rate of the region is 28.4 percent while
the national average is 57%. However, the condition of women is more pitiable
as their literacy rate is only 7.8%.
Pakistan government instead of
developing the area is devastating the region. Pakistan army has launched
several military operations in which large number of locals were killed and
uprooted. There were widespread human right violations, and several persons
including members of terrorist outfits took refuge in Afghanistan.
Pakistan alleged that Afghan
government is assisting these terrorist groups especially Tehrik-i-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP) and they are involved in terrorist attacks in Pakistan. The
United States Department of Defence claimed that in 2019 about 3,000 to 5,000
terrorists of TTP were living in Afghanistan.
Pakistan which emerged as an
epicenter of terrorism and created several terrorist outfits and sponsored
terrorism in several countries especially in India and Afghanistan also
suffered. A reputed Pakistani newspaper claimed in 2018 that the country lost
$126.79 billion because of terrorism in last about 17 years. Pakistani security
forces allege that India and Afghanistan assist these terrorist groups. India
vehemently opposed this malicious allegation while Afghanistan accepted that it
supported TTP. Pakistan’s Foreign Office released a dossier in November 2020
which contained concocted evidence about Indian assistance to diverse terrorist
outfits including TTP, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar.
In reality Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) used FATA region for recruiting and
training of terrorists since 1979 when Soviet Union invaded and captured
Afghanistan. Besides Pakistan defence forces the terrorists were also trained
by The Central Intelligence Agency as well as other European security forces so
that they can fight with USSR troops in Afghanistan.
Pakistani security forces claim that
terrorism is considerably dwindled after launch of operation Zarb-e-Azb but
neutral analysts claim that Pakistan army resorted to atrocities and there were
blatant human right violations. Overtly peace was restored in the area, but the
masses were infuriated because of mayhems perpetrated by the security forces.
The continuous drone attacks by U.S. forces also caused resentment in the
masses.
Pakistan government should also try
to use the local tribal leaders to counter terrorism from FATA region. Jirgas
and Lashkars can be used to resolve militancy from the FATA. The formation of
Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) negates Pakistan’s army claim that they
successfully crushed the terrorists in FATA region. The PTM claims that action
should be taken against army for human right violations in FATA.
The merger of FATA region in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa in May 2018 has also not given the desired result as terrorism is
continuing in the region. The people of FATA persecuted by terrorists as well
as by security forces. The government should control madrassas which are
spreading terrorism on the name of religion and the Talibanization of the
region should be curbed.
The ISI should also stop assistance
to terrorist outfits which are carrying out terrorist activities in India and
Afghanistan on its behest. Because of Pakistan’s assistance to various
terrorist outfits United States have stopped financial assistance and the
Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has put Pakistan in grey list. As ISI
is continuing its support to terrorist organisations, the possibility that
Pakistan is downgraded to black list cannot be ruled out.
The residents of FATA area are very
religious minded hence the ISI should stop exploiting them by making them
suicide bombers and Jihadist on the name of Islam. ISI considers them as
‘strategic assets’ and help them clandestinely. The terrorism cannot be wiped
out from FATA till ISI continues assistance to the terrorists.
The terrorist problem of FATA is not
only a law-and-order problem. Pakistan army launched several operations to
eliminate the terrorists, but they failed because FATA needs overall
development. The Punjabi dominated Pakistan army treats all other nationalities
with disdain and crush them with brutality. The same thing they did in the then
East Pakistan (Now Bangladesh) and at present Pakistan army is carrying out
inhuman brutalities in Balochistan. The government should try to alleviate
their living standard and should provide them education, employment,
electricity, water, housing, and other basic necessities. The dominance of
semi-literate Maulvis and assistance from ISI to terrorist outfits should be
stopped then only terrorism can end from the region.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.comhttps://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/the-deep-state-is-excessively-repressive-in-suppressing-pashtun-non-violent-movement/#.YQFsGvfbnfw.whatsapp
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM
The Deep State is excessively
repressive in suppressing Pashtun non-violent Movement
Jai Kumar Verma
The Punjabi dominated Pakistan’s ‘deep state’ is infamous for
suppressing any dissension by other nationalities of the country. The military
junta had not taken any lesson from the secession of East Pakistan now
Bangladesh where it used brute force to suppress the Bengalis. Although all nationalities
in Pakistan, except Punjabis, are facing exploitation and few of them would
like to secede but their numerical strength is less. Pashtuns with 40 million
people outnumber all other nationalities except Sindhis. Mohajirs are 16
million, Balochis are seven million while Saraikis, Hindkowans are much less in
number. Pashtuns are about 42 percent of Afghanistan population and also more
than a lakh in Iran.
The leaders of Pashtun movement allege that the Pakistan army is
involved in human right abuses, kidnapping, extra judicial killings, and there
are large number of missing Pashtuns. The Pashtuns also claim that they are the
targets of both Taliban as well as of the security forces. Pashtuns are
harassed at check posts as well as in their daily lives. Security forces have
laid down landmines in their areas which make their lives vulnerable.
The demand for an independent Pakhtoonistan is older than Pakistan. In
1947 Abdul Ghaffar Khan (popularly known as Seemant Gandhi), the Chief Minister
Khan Abdul Jabbar Khan and Khudai
Khidmatgars boycotted the referendum as there was no option for the independent
Pakhtoonistan.
The Pashtun
leaders claim that army is systematically persecuting Pashtuns under various
operations including Zarb-e-Azb which was multiyear operation. Hence in 2018
Pashtun Tahafuz (Protection) Movement (PTM) was born, which demands that a
commission should be constituted to investigate about the extrajudicial
killings and about disappeared Pashtuns. The PTM leaders also mention that the
army support Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which are known as Pakistani
Taliban. There was a secret deal between
army and TTP under which TTP militants were allowed to return to tribal areas
after Zarb-e-Azab. Hence an important slogan of PTM was that uniform is behind
the terrorism. The movement was initiated by eight students in May 2014 in Dera
Ismail Khan and they demanded for the removal of landmines from Waziristan,
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and other places.
The PTM
also launched justice movement in November 2018 to protest against the
abduction and murder of Tahir Dawar. The PTM demanded that the cold-blooded
murder of Dawar may be investigated by international agency as they doubted the
honesty of Pakistan government. Again, in February 2019 and in May 2020 the
outfit launched agitations as its leaders Arman Loni and Arif Wazir were
killed. The army used brute force and resorted to the firing on 25 May 2019 in
which 13 PTM supporters were killed while more than 25 were injured. The PTM organised demonstrations in Bajaur,
Quetta, Wanna, Lahore, Swat, Karachi, Dera Ismail, Peshawar, Bannu, Tank,
Mirashah, Loralai, Charsadda, Chaman, Islamabad and other places.
Nevertheless,
deep state alleges that the activities of PTM are against Pakistani
constitution but PTM leaders assert that the activities of the group are within
the constitution and their two leaders namely Ali Wazir and Mohsin Dawar were
elected as parliamentarians in 2018 elections.
The army
crushes the PTM with iron hand because it challenges the integrity and
authority of army. Generally, Pakistan army is not criticised as army projects
itself as the saviour of the country and above the criticism.
The deep
state also suppress PTM mercilessly as it feels that it is arousing ethnic
allegiance which would threaten Pakistan’s basic unifying concept i.e.,
religion or Islamic identity of the country. Bangladesh was created due to
Bengali ethnicity and Baloch are also fighting for a separate country. But deep
state is more worried about Pashtun movement than Baluch secessionists because
Pashtuns have close ethnic ties with Pashtuns of Afghanistan. The Inter
Services Intelligence (ISI) considers that by helping Taliban they also weaken
Pashtun movement.
The
activities of PTM are not covered in national media, T.V and newspapers are
prohibited to cover the mass rallies of PTM or to publish their demands. As PTM
activities are not covered in media PTM uses social media especially twitter,
Facebook, WhatsApp, and YouTube to publicise their views, policies and to
spread the messages of their leaders. In twitter Pashteen raised issues about
the missing persons, killing of lawyers in Quetta and about other human right
violations. Pashteen also contact international media and apprise them about
the gross human right violations done by Pakistan military on Pashtuns. The PTM
has massive support among the silent majority of Pashtuns, liberal lawyers, and
social activists. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari of Pakistan People’s Party also
supported the PTM. Prime Minister Imran Khan did not criticise the PTM but
under pressure from army it has not spoken in favour of the movement.
Manzoor
Pashteen Chairman of PTM and a human right activist who is fighting for the
rights of Pashtuns was arrested several times but the security forces have to
release him as there were protests on his arrest in the country. Pashteen has
large following among Pashtuns and according to few, Pashteen is like Nelson
Mandela for Pashtuns. The movement launched by PTM would continue and it cannot
be repressed, as the grievances of Pashtuns are genuine and the movement has a
devoted, honest, and charismatic leader like Manzoor Pashteen.
PTM, which
has followers outside Pakistan, has also demonstrated in United States as well
as in European countries against the inhuman atrocities committed by Pakistan
army on the innocent protesters. They also claim that deep state is resorting
to all types of brutalities on peaceful demonstrators under the garb of
Covid-19. The PTM followers claim that ISI agents were behind the death of
Sajid Hussain editor of Balochistan Times residing in Sweden. PTM also asserts
that Pakistani dissidents who were forced to live outside country because of
their safety are also worried as ISI agents are killing the dissenters.
The deep
state considers Pashtun movement and PTM leader Manzoor Pashteen as great
dangers to the solidarity and integrity of Pakistan. Although security forces
tried to deter him and other leaders of PTM but these threats did not work and Pashteen
and his party colleagues continued with their protests and demonstrations.
Pashteen remained undeterred and mentioned that the security forces can kill
him but the movement would continue.
Pakistan
watchers feel that the deep state is not able to control the Pashtun movement
as their demands are genuine hence, they are trying to defame the movement by
claiming that it is a terrorist movement which is supported by Afghanistan and
Pakistan’s strongest rival India. The previous Director General of the
Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Asif Ghafoor alleged that PTM receives
financial assistance from Indian and Afghan intelligences services. Pakistan
army is blaming India and Afghanistan as they are not able to face the movement
launched by PTM. Army protrude that Islam and Urdu language unite Pakistan and
it overlooks the ethnic and linguistic diversity in the country. It is the
reason that if any ethnic minority like Baloch, Pashtun or Bengali raise demand
for the political rights or economic development it is considered as the
challenge to the basic idea of Pakistan.
The breakup
of Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh was projected as the handiwork of India
and the fundamentalists in Pakistan want to take the revenge by creating
Khalistan. The deep state is blaming India for assistance to PTM with ulterior
motive of discrediting the movement. The deep state has no proof of foreign
involvement and the mammoth gathering at several places indicates that the
movement is indigenous and it has mass support. The Pashtuns were treated as
second class citizens in their own country and the innumerable atrocities
committed by army have united them against the oppressive rule.
The deep
state should be careful and try to accept the genuine demands of PTM as the
movement has potential to develop as Afghanistan does not accept Durand Line
and the demand of greater Pakhtoonistan is an old demand. Sindhis, Balochis and
Muhajirs are already raising demands for an independent country hence the army
should not use repressive methods as it can be counterproductive. Blaming
foreign powers without any solid proof will be disadvantageous and will lower
the credibility of the government.
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Proscription of TLP Will Not Redress
Pakistan’s Afflictions
TLP’s past and
present /Courtesy : twitter.com
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 15 May 2021. Sheikh Rashid Ahmed
the Interior Minister of Pakistan told the media that Tehreek-e-Labbaik Party
(TLP) was outlawed on April 14 under Rule 11-B of Anti-Terrorism Act of 1997.
He mentioned that the proposal to ban the TLP was sent by Punjab government and
it was approved by the government. He stated that in the latest demonstrations
two police officers died while several others were injured. According to media
reports about seven persons were killed and few hundred people were injured.
Several policemen were taken hostages by the demonstrators, although they were
released later. According to social media several security personnel were
associated with TLP and they threatened of dire consequences if the demands of
TLP were not fulfilled.
The TLP, which opposes the printing of cartoons of Prophet Mohammed in
France, has launched anti-French protests in several cities of Pakistan
especially in Punjab province. The TLP demanded that the French ambassador
should be expelled, diplomatic ties should be severed, and French products
should be prohibited in the country. Islamabad has not appointed ambassador in
France since July 2018. The agitators also insisted that party chief Saad Rizvi
should be released immediately. French Embassy in Islamabad also sent an email
to French citizens and companies advising them to leave the country temporarily
in view of the violent protests against France.
TLP is a far-right Islamic party which was founded in 2015 by Khadim
Hussain Rizvi a rabblerouser Islamic preacher who died in November 2020. Rizvi
was an employee of Punjab Auqaf Department and was a fiery orator and coined a
popular slogan that “Gustakh-e-rasul ki aik saza, sar tan sey juda” (The
beheading is the only punishment for the blasphemer). The party believes in the
“finality of Prophet Muhammad” and in the safeguarding of blasphemy laws. Most
of its members are followers of Barelvi school of thought and has mastered the
art of countrywide street protests in favour of blasphemy law. The party also
stresses that Sharia law should be enforced in letter and spirit.
The party also successfully launched an agitation in 2017 in which it
blocked several roads of Islamabad and Rawalpindi for weeks and bowed the
government. The party demanded the resignation of Minister for Law and Justice
Zahid Hamid and contested an amendment in the Election Bill 2017 where the word
oath was changed to declaration.
Imran government signed an agreement with TLP that it would take the
matter in parliament about the expulsion of the French Ambassador within three
months however later the time limit was extended to April 20. Later government
could not implement the agreement and arrested TLP president Saad Rizvi on 12
April and banned the party. Hence TLP again resorted to protests and
demonstrations.
However, Hussain Haqqani Director in Hudson Institute and a former
Pakistan ambassador in United States mentioned that “France is a major
financial donor to Pakistan and the demand to expel its ambassador over alleged
blasphemy is just a gimmick”.
Pakistan army also uses Jihadists, extremists, and fundamentalists to
subdue the rising popularity of the civilian government. Army controlled
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is vigorously using Deobandi and Wahabis as
Jihadists and infiltrating them in India especially in Kashmir and Afghanistan
to carryout terrorist activities. Pakistan watchers claim that ISI used
Barelvis against Nawaz Sharif government and also to cow down Imran Khan.
However, it appears that now TLP which had the support of army is out of hand
and now targeting the present government.
Pakistan government which is suffering from acute financial crisis
cannot afford to antagonise France which is an active member of European Union
and holds an important position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which
has given substantial loan to Islamabad. Paris is the headquarters of Financial
Action Task Force (FATF) which has placed Pakistan in ‘grey list’ and may
downgrade it to ‘blacklist.’ Pakistan has also strong defence ties with France
and its attack submarines are supplied by France. Pakistan Air Force is using
Dassault Mirage III and the Dassault Mirage V.
The human right activists claim that religious minorities like Hindus,
Christians, Ahmadis are persecuted under blasphemy laws. The blasphemy laws are
also used to harass the opponents and to settle personal disputes. The TLP also
organised massive demonstrations in November 2018 when Supreme Court acquitted
Asia Bibi a Christian woman who was charged under blasphemy law.
As Pakistan is radicalised and Islamic fundamentalism has considerably
increased, the popularity of TLP is escalating. The party secured 2.2 million
votes in 2018 elections and it also won two provincial seats in Sindh Provincial
Assembly. The party became the third largest party in Punjab after Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). Nonetheless Pakistan
watchers claim that popularity of the party is not increased much but due to
enhanced radicalisation, joblessness, illiteracy and deteriorating financial
condition of the country it garnered so many votes. In view of declining
economic condition of the country not only Madrassa educated people, but even
general young Pakistanis are also joining the party as they visualise a bleak
future.
The vast majority of Pakistan follows Barelvi school of thought, and
they have a huge network of mosques, madrassas, and shrines and several of them
owe allegiance to TLP.
TLP sent messages in WhatsApp where they mentioned that the protesters
should be ready with stones and slingshots to use against security forces which
are generally about 10 percent of the demonstrators. Police never fights
bravely hence they can engage police and Allah will help the demonstrators. In
view of vast use of social media security agencies have blocked social media
for some time in Pakistan.
Imran government has to resolve the issue with TLP at an early date as
other Islamic parties may also join the movement. Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam and banned
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has already offered their support. There is
also a possibility that TLP may become a terrorist organisation if its
prohibition is not revoked early.
U.S. led NATO forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan and Pakistan is trying
to be a mediator, however the country which is suffering from an internal
turmoil cannot be a true peacemaker. Although a ceasefire agreement was reached
between the armies of India and Pakistan, but Islamabad does not want durable
peace. Soon after the ceasefire agreement Pakistan agreed to import cotton and
sugar from India but reversed the decision within 24 hours.
Public of no Muslim country except Pakistan has demanded the expulsion
of French Ambassador and severance of diplomatic relations, indicates that the
country is totally radicalised. Pakistani constitution has more Islamic clauses
than most of other Muslim countries except Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Although at present juncture proscribing of the TLP was necessary but it
would not resolve the predicament as the main problem is rising religious
fundamentalism in the country. In past several other parties and terrorist
groups were banned but most of them are functioning under the different
nomenclature. In reality the government should try to reduce the rising
extremism and should convince the masses about the futility of the ideology of
the party.
Besides radicalisation the other reason of the spectacular rise of TLP
is the rivalry between Barelvis and Deobandis. Barelvis are supported
by powerful army while Deobandis have financial assistance from middle eastern
countries, and it has control over large number of mosques and Madrassas. The
TLP demonstrations and demands may increase Pakistan’s isolation in
international arena. However, it is high time when Pakistan military and
civilian government chalk out a long-term plan for the overall development of
the country. They should forget animosity with India and the rivalry between
army and civilian government should also end. The rising radicalisation of the
country should also be reduced, and ISI should stop assisting terrorist outfits
so that the country is out from the grey list of FATF.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United
Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM
General Bajwa’s Statement That “It’s Time For India
And Pakistan To Bury The Past” Is Untrustworthy
The
Author
By
Jai Kumar Verma
New
Delhi. 21 March 2021. On 18
March Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa stated that “it is time to
bury the past and move forward. But for resumption of peace process or
meaningful dialogue, our neighbour will have to create conducive environment,
particularly in Indian Occupied Kashmir.” General Bajwa was addressing Islamabad
Security Dialogue which was organised by the National Security Division in
cooperation with prominent think tanks.
The two-day event was attended by scholars, diplomats, international
academics, civil society members and others. He further stated that “despite
tremendous human and resource potential, the unsettled disputes are dragging
this region back to the swamp of poverty and underdevelopment.”
He further asserted that “Kashmir dispute is obviously at the head of
this problem. It is important to understand that without the resolution of
Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, process of sub-continental
rapprochement will always remain susceptible to derailment due to politically
motivated bellicosity.”
Pakistan
Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa
This statement by the powerful Pakistan Army Chief becomes more
important as only a day before, Prime Minister Imran Khan Niazi also called for
greater trade with India. While speaking on the issue of peace in the region
Imran Khan also mentioned that “the unresolved Kashmir issue was the biggest
hurdle between the two countries”. He also remarked that “If India gives the
Kashmiris their right under the UN (resolutions), it will be greatly beneficial
for Pakistan as well as for India,”. He further narrated that India could get
direct access to resource rich Central Asian countries including Kyrgyz
Republic, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
Before these positive gestures of Imran Khan and General Bajwa, on 25
February, in an astonishing development Indian defence ministry and Pakistan’s
Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a joint statement that the
Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) of both the countries “agreed
to address each other’s core issues and concerns which have propensity to
disturb peace and lead to violence”. The DGMOs negotiated with each other on
hotline and decided that militaries of both the countries would adhere to all
agreements and will observe ceasefire from the midnight of 24 February 2021.
This agreement came after ceasefire violations pact of 2003. The agreement
is important as last year Pakistan has violated the ceasefire 5,133 times
in which 46 innocent persons lost their lives.
Dr.
Moeed Yusuf, NSA, Pakistan
The agreement and statements are the end result of high level “back
channel” negotiations between Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor (NSA) and
his deputy with Moeed Yusuf the special assistant of Prime Minister on National
Security Division and Strategic Policy Planning. The meeting was held in a
third country where it was negotiated that the peace should be restored.
Nonetheless Moeed Yusuf ardently denied any backchannel negotiations. He also
twittered that “This is baseless. No such talks have taken place between me and
Mr. Doval,”. Yusuf welcomed the agreement and mentioned that adhering to the
2003 ceasefire agreement, will save lives.
On 2 February also General Bajwa stated at Asghar Khan Academy of
Pakistan Air Force (PAF) in Risalpur that Pakistan wants to resolve the J&K
issue in a “dignified and peaceful manner.” While the Ministry of External
Affairs (MEA) spokesperson stated on 4 February at weekly briefing that “Our
position is well known. India desires normal neighbourly relations with
Pakistan in an environment free of terror, hostility, and violence. The onus is
on Pakistan for creating such an environment”.
These constant overtures by Islamabad indicate that it is working under
immense international as well as domestic pressures. The international pressure
is from Biden administration, Financial Action Task Force (FATF) as well as
from China. FATF is keeping Pakistan in ‘grey list’ and there is danger that it
may be downgraded in ‘black list’ as Islamabad failed to comply all the
stipulations fixed by the global money laundering and terrorist financing
watchdog. According to an Islamabad based think tank Pakistan lost about $ 38
billion because it is kept in ‘grey list’. Pakistan is giving peace proposals
to India as it wants to assure the world community that it is a peace-loving
country and making sincere efforts to have peace with India.
Although both Imran Khan and General Bajwa stressed the need of peaceful
negotiations with India but both emphasized that first Kashmir issue should be
settled. While Khan also mentioned that “India will have to take first step.
Unless they do so, we cannot do much.” Khan also stated that Kashmir issue
should be solved under UN resolutions which are now defunct. Bajwa mentioned
that “Our neighbour will have to create a conducive environment, particularly
in occupied Kashmir.”
Both have not said anything about stopping of the cross-border
terrorism. On the other hand, India’s stand remain the same that “talks and
terror” cannot go together and Pakistan should take some cognisable actions
against the terror outfits and the terrorists responsible for carrying out
terrorist activities in India.
The defanging of article 370 of Indian constitution from J&K was an
internal matter of India and Pakistan should not make unnecessary hue and cry
on this issue as J&K is an integral part of India.
Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh has rightly mentioned in
the press conference in Chandigarh on March 19 that “the biggest hurdle to
normalising relations between the two nations” is Pakistan sponsored cross
border terrorism. Punjab Chief Minister also stated that first General Bajwa
should control the ISI and should stop infiltration of terrorists. The ISI is
still dropping arms, ammunition, and heroin through drones in Punjab. Pakistan
has to take concrete actions so that India can trust that Islamabad is
genuinely wants peace.
Delhi should be careful as in past Pakistan deceived India. In 1999 when
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee went to Lahore Pakistan forces invaded Kargil.
Same way Prime Minister Modi visited Pakistan, but ISI sponsored terrorist
groups carried terrorist activities in Pathankot, Uri and Pulwama.
Pakistan has waged a low-intensity war against India and considers
Kashmir as unfinished agenda of the partition. Pakistan army has convinced the
masses that Kashmir is a Muslim majority state and soon it will be merged in
Pakistan. The deep state also propagates that ISI will be able to disintegrate
India by creating Khalistan and it will be the revenge of dissection of
Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh. The deep state has close links with
terrorists, and it cannot forsake them so easily. Pakistan army which is
reaping all the benefits would like to keep the masses illiterate, radical and
anti-India.
The peace proposals of both Pakistani leaders indicate that on one hand
they want to convince the world community that they want peace with India and
on the other hand both emphasised about resolving Kashmir issue. In this way
they also tried to satisfy Pakistani masses as well as extremists that they
have not weakened their stand or support to Kashmir. At present the economic
condition of Pakistan is precarious. U.S.A., Saudi Arabia, and U.A.E helped
Pakistan in past have abandoned it. China which rescued Islamabad from economic
disaster in past is also helping it selectively as it also feels that Islamabad
will not be able to repay the debt.
Hence Pakistan is forced to show an olive branch at this juncture, but
it cannot be trusted. Islamabad is dependent on Beijing for several things and
the latter will not allow Pakistan to be friendly with India. China considers
India as its potential adversary and will like that Pakistan should continue
troubling India. At present China failed to coerce India and had to withdraw
may be because of strong Indian leadership, commitment and professionalism of
Indian defence forces and the international pressure but China will continue
attacking India directly or through its proxies.
India should not expect much from these statements as these declarations
were made because of pressure and secondly all efforts will go waste once
Pakistani terrorists carry out a major terrorist action in
India.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute
of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the
article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM
Imran
Khan’s Visit To Sri Lanka Petered To Routine Diplomacy
Photo
by Ishara S. KODIKARA / AFP)
- He
was neither allowed to raise issues of Muslim minority nor could address
the Parliament
By
Jai Kumar Verma
The
Author
New
Delhi. 04 March 2021. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran
Khan Niazi paid a two day visit to Si Lanka recently. The visiting Prime
Minister was received by Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda
Rajapaksa at the Bandaranaike International Airport Colombo and was also
presented a guard of honour. However, if the ceremonial warm welcome and fanfare
is separated, there was not much concrete in the visit to please Imran Khan as
well as to the Pakistani public.
The scheduled address of Sri Lankan
Parliament by Imran Khan was unexpectedly cancelled on the flimsy ground of
spread of COVID-19. According to reports Khan’s address to parliament was
included in his itinerary on the request of Pakistan government and Sri Lanka
government back-pedalled its decision. Sri Lankan government officially
mentioned that the parliament address was cancelled because of ‘scheduling
issues’ as well as to safeguard with corona pandemic. Nevertheless, according
to reports some influential people in Sri Lankan government were opposed to
Imran Khan’s address to Sri Lankan Parliament as they speculated that Khan
would raise Kashmir issue in his address, and it will further strain India Sri
Lanka relations. The relations between India and Sri Lanka are already tense
because Sri Lanka has unilaterally terminated a 2019 contract with India and
Japan to develop the strategic East Container Terminal in Colombo port. Sri
Lankan government does not want strained relations with India as at present it
is falling under Chinese debt-trap while India’s prestige is enhancing in world
because of it successful dissemination of COVID-19 vaccines.
Sri Lankan was also apprehensive that
Khan may raise the issue of ill-treatment of Muslim minority in Sri Lanka. At
present Sri Lanka is already facing a controversy about forced cremations of
Muslims who die because of COVID-19. Amnesty International and other human
right groups are already opposing the forced cremations. In fact, Amnesty
International wrote a letter to Imran Khan to raise the issue of forced
cremations of Muslims at the highest level during his visit. Sometimes back Sri
Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa stated in parliament that burials would
be allowed to Muslims soon, but the announcement could not be implemented
because of stringent opposition by majority Buddhists.
Imran Khan congratulated Sri Lanka for
this decision as he is also under pressure from fundamentalists in Pakistan to
raise this issue during his tour to Sri Lanka. The Islamic world is also
outraged because of forced cremations of Muslims and is extremely critical of
Sri Lanka and consider it as the blatant persecution of Muslims who are more
than 10 percent of the Sri Lankan population. First Sri Lankan government had
not allowed 15 Muslim Sri Lankan parliamentarians to meet Imran Khan under the
pretext of security as it would have infuriated majority Buddhists, however
later the Muslim parliamentarians met Imran Khan and they demanded that
government should restore the burial of Muslims. Khan also met Sri Lankan
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and held extensive discussion on bilateral
relations.
There were also communal riots between
Muslims and Christians as well as between Muslims and Buddhists after the
Easter suicide bombings in April 2019 in which about 269 persons including
eight suicide bombers were killed.
Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood
Qureshi also accompanied the Prime Minister in the visit. Pakistan is the
second largest trading partner of Sri Lanka after India hence a large trade and
commercial delegation also accompanied Khan. Both the countries also agreed to
revive a joint Working Group (JWG) so that the technical issues can be resolved
amicably. Both countries inked a free trade agreement in 2005. Pakistan is
projecting its ancient Buddhist connections so that cultural ties with Sri
Lanka are strengthened and religious tourism enhances.
Besides trade ties the defence
relationship between both the countries is much stronger. Pakistan helped Sri
Lanka when its forces were fighting with the Liberation Tiges of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) a separatist group which was fighting for an independent country for
Tamils in North Eastern Sri Lanka. Although India shared intelligence with Sri
Lanka but refused to supply arms and ammunition, nevertheless Pakistan took
advantage of the situation and supplied not only weapons and ammunition but
also gave training to Sri Lankan forces including fighter pilots. Sri Lankan
defence secretary also visited Pakistan in 2008 and requested for supply of
armaments.
According to unconfirmed reports
Pakistani Air Force pilots also helped Sri Lankan Air Force. Sri Lankan defence
officers are also getting training in Pakistan military academies. Sri Lankan
naval officers also took part in multinational maritime exercise Aman 2021 held
in Pakistan in February 2021. The defence ties between both the counties are so
strong that Pakistan’s High Commissioner in Sri Lanka and Sri Lankan envoy in
Pakistan were mostly former military officers. During 1971 Sri Lanka over-ruled
India’s objection and allowed Pakistani Air Force planes to refuel its planes
in Sri Lanka.
Imran Khan also announced a new $ 50
million defence line of credit (LOC) facility for Sri Lanka to increase its
defence capabilities. Both the countries also agreed to share intelligence so
to fight terrorism, drug trafficking and organised crime. Imran Khan also
highlighted the importance of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and
mentioned that it will enhance trade and connectivity. He also mentioned that
One Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would augment Sri Lanka’s connectivity up to
Central Asia.
It appears that the visiting prime
minister was briefed not to speak anything about the maltreatment of Muslims in
Sri Lanka. The official press releases of both the countries have not mentioned
anything about Sri Lankan Muslims however Rajapaksa twitted that Sri Lanka “is
grateful to Pakistan for agreeing to open the pilgrimage corridors for Sri
Lankans to visit ancient Buddhist heritage sites in Pakistan.”
At present Colombo also needs friends
at Geneva so that the United Nations Human Rights Commission’s resolution 30/1
of September 2015 about the investigation of committing of the war crimes by
Sri Lankan authorities, can be withdrawn. Colombo wants the help from Pakistan
but does not want to lose India’s support hence it gave a red-carpet welcome to
Imran Khan but not allowed to speak against India.
Imran Khan in view of cordial relations
with Colombo had not spoken in favour of Sri Lankan Muslims. Same way no leader
of Pakistan including Imran Khan speak in favour of Uighur Muslims although
U.S. and Western world is criticising and condemning China for the blatant
human right violations by Chinese security forces.
India permitted Khan’s airplane to fly
over India’s airspace while in 2019 Pakistan refused permission to Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s aircraft to use its airspace.
Now India
should be careful about the triangulation between China, Pakistan, and Sri
Lanka. Out of these first two are India’s sworn enemy and will like to win over
Colombo in their side too. Imran Khan also visited Kabul in November
2020 which was his first visit to Afghanistan after he assumed the office of
Prime Minister two years back although Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visited
Pakistan several times. The possibility that Khan is trying to make friends
which can be later used against India cannot be ruled out.
Khan appreciated CPEC as well as BRI in
Sri Lanka although several projects of CPEC are in trouble and there is lot of
resentment about CPEC in Pakistan. It may be possible that Khan was briefed by
Chinese to appreciate CPEC and BRI in Sri Lanka.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United
Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Raksha ANIRVEDA
www.raksha-anirveda.com
Close Shave for Pakistan; Once Again Escapes to be Blacklisted by FATF
The powerful countries of the world
do not want to isolate Pakistan by putting it in the blacklist of Financial
Action Task Force, an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1989 on the
initiative of the G7 to develop policies to combat money laundering and
terrorism financing
By Jai Kumar Verma
Generally, the countries which fall
in ‘grey list’ try hard to come out of it, however, Pakistan which has fallen
thrice in the ‘grey list’ tries not to be downgraded to ‘blacklist’ but makes
no sincere efforts to come out from ’grey list’ of Financial Action Task Force
(FATF). In fact, in June 2020 when Islamabad escaped from joining Iran and
North Korea in blacklist, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi
happily mentioned that although India tried but it was unsuccessful in
downgrading Pakistan into ‘black list’. Qureshi had no remorse that Pakistan
could not come out from ‘grey list’ and Islamabad continued funding of several
terrorist outfits including Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba (L-e-T), Jaish-e-Mohammed
(JeM), Taliban and others which are designated terrorist outfits by United
Nations Security Council (UNSC). The FATF and other international organisations
also requested Pakistan to prosecute leaders of the terrorist outfits, but its
efforts lacked genuineness.
The FATF, which is the global money laundering and
terrorist financing watchdog, in its final meeting on February 25 retained
Pakistan in ‘grey list’. This decision of FATF will harm Pakistan financially
as it will not get financial assistance from the international organisations
including International Monetary Fund (IMF). Pakistan is passing from a grave
economic crisis and its public debt at the end of 2019-2020 rose to 87 per cent
of GDP and the external debt and liabilities became US$113.8 billion.
The FATF chalked out a 27-points action plan for
Pakistan but it could make progress only in 24 out of 27 points and failed to
address the critical three points. Now FATF will again decide the fate of
Pakistan in its meeting scheduled to be held in June 2021. FATF issued a
statement which mentioned that “To date, Pakistan has made progress across all
action plan items and has now largely addressed 24 of the 27 action items. As
all action plan deadlines have expired, the FATF strongly urges Pakistan to
swiftly complete its full action plan before June 2021.”
The FATF kept Pakistan in grey list in June 2018
and warned Pakistan to implement all 27 points of the action plan. Now the FATF
will meet again in June 2021 and if it fulfils all 27 stipulations and member states
are satisfied then it will be out of grey list and will come in white list. The
FATF President Dr Marcus Pleyer stated that the Asia-Pacific Group on Money
Laundering (APG) is also watching Pakistan and will also decide its
implementation of terror financing restrictions.
The FATF, which is the global money
laundering and terrorist financing watchdog, in its final meeting on February
25 retained Pakistan in ‘grey list’. This decision of FATF will harm Pakistan
financially as it will not get financial assistance from the international
organisations including IMF
Pleyer also mentioned that “As long as we see that
the country is progressing with action items, and we have seen progress with
Pakistan, we give them a chance to repair the outstanding issues. But we don’t
do this forever.” The FATF president also said that no country is allowed to
remain in grey list all the time and it will be downgraded to black list if it
does not improve. At present only Iran and North Korea are in black list.
Pakistan failed to comply the instructions
pertaining to terror financing and the terror financiers were not prosecuted.
The country was also unsuccessful in implementing financial sanctions against
the UN designated terrorists. As Pakistan has launched a low intensity war
against India and continuously infiltrating terrorists in the country, India
provided evidence to FATF about Pakistan’s financial assistance to several
terrorist outfits. India also mentioned that Pakistan had not taken any
worthwhile action against UN designated terrorists including Dawood Ibrahim,
Masood Azhar, Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi just to name a few.
In August 2020, Pakistan government issued two
notifications in which names and other details of 88 terrorists including
Dawood Ibrahim, Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar were mentioned. The notifications
also mentioned about the details of terrorists of Islamic State and al Qaeda.
Although later on Pakistan backtracked and refused to accept the presence of
Dawood Ibrahim in the country.
Pakistan is losing lot of money because the country
is in grey list. According to a think tank based in Islamabad, the country lost
about US$38 billion because it is continuously kept in grey list from June
2018. The country is receiving less foreign direct investment (FDI) and the
exports are also suffering.
Representational image
A demonstration was held in front of FATF
headquarters in Paris on February 23. The demonstrators mentioned that Pakistan
is financing the terrorist outfits and assisting terrorists hence it should be
downgraded to blacklist. The demonstrators also claimed that Pakistani courts have
released Omar Sheikh who is a terrorist and responsible for the killing of
Daniel Pearl. It indicates that the judiciary is under pressure.
The FATF president also said that no
country is allowed to remain in grey list all the time and it will be downgraded
to black list if it does not improve. At present only Iran and North Korea are
in black list
The FATF website also mentioned that “Pakistan
should continue to work on implementing the three remaining items in its action
plan to address its strategically important deficiencies, namely: (1)
demonstrating that TF (Terror Finance) investigations and prosecutions target
persons and entities acting on behalf or at the direction of the designated
persons or entities; (2) demonstrating that TF prosecutions result in
effective, proportionate and dissuasive sanctions; and (3) demonstrating
effective implementation of targeted financial sanctions against all 1267 and
1373 designated terrorists, specifically those acting for or on their behalf.”
Muhammad Hammad Azhar, Pakistan’s Federal Minister,
stated that the country has fulfilled about 90 per cent of FATF’s action plan
as 24 out of 27 points are more or less complete while remaining three points
are also ‘partially addressed.’ He also tweeted that FATF has acknowledged
Pakistan’s high-level political commitment since 2018 that led to significant
progress. It was also noted by FATF member countries that Pakistan is subject
to perhaps the most challenging and comprehensive action plan ever given to any
country.”
Meanwhile, FATF included Burkina Faso, Cayman
Islands, Morocco, and Senegal in the grey list, which has swelled to 19
countries.
In reality Pakistan has a ‘hybrid regime’ where
overtly the civilian government rules the country but in reality, the power
lies with the army. Pakistan army has propagated that there is danger from
India and the army can save the country. Secondly it also claims that in 1971
Pakistan was disintegrated because of India hence it must take revenge by
splitting India, hence on one hand Muslim majority Kashmir has to merge in
Pakistan and on the other hand a new state Khalistan has to be created. Chinese
intelligence agency Ministry of State Security (MSS) also presses Pakistan to
carry out terrorist activities in India.
Pakistan watchers feel that country
is not making sincere efforts to come out from ‘grey list’ however as it has
support of three countries i.e., China, Turkey, and Malaysia it cannot be
downgraded to black list. It appears that Pakistan will not discontinue
assisting terrorist outfits in near future as ‘proxy war’ against India is part
of its foreign policy
Pakistan watchers feel that country is not making
sincere efforts to come out from ‘grey list’ however as it has support of three
countries i.e., China, Turkey, and Malaysia it cannot be downgraded to black
list. It appears that Pakistan will not discontinue assisting terrorist outfits
in near future as ‘proxy war’ against India is part of its foreign policy.
Pakistan also understands that the important countries of the world do not want
to put it in ‘black list’ hence stringent banking and international financial
sanctions would not be imposed. The United States and other Western countries
feel that Pakistan should not be isolated but should be amended through persuasion.
The Muslim countries like Turkey, Malaysia, Saudi
Arabia, and UAE are also against putting a Sunni Muslim country into ‘black
list’. Hence the chances that Pakistan is downgraded to ‘black list’ is remote
and as it is not feasible to keep any country in ‘grey list’ for a long time
hence it may be possible that FATF under some flimsy ground take out Pakistan
from ‘grey list’ and put it on ‘white list’. It is the reason that although it
is evident that Pakistan is abetting terrorist outfits and not curbing their
terrorist activities it is not downgraded to ‘black list’.
-The writer is a New Delhi-based
strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member
of USI and MP-IDSA. The views in the article are solely of the writer and do not
necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM
Will Biden’s US Balance The India-Pak
Tight Rope?
By
Jai Kumar Verma
New
Delhi. 09 February 2021. It has
been 20 days since the world swore in a new monitor. Nations including India
and Pakistan are assessing the future policies of President Joe Biden, who was
sworn in as 46th President
of United States . Biden is facing arduous tasks not only within country but
outside too. At present US is suffering from uncontrollable coronavirus, rising
unemployment, precarious economy, and civil strife. In international arena US
relations with European Union are tense while Russia is also flexing muscles,
but the real threat is emanating from expansionist China.
US Pakistan relations were on
rollercoaster from last more than a decade and it gone considerably down during
the time of President Trump, who instead of adopting a diplomatic approach was
straight forward and attacked Pakistan several times. He passed laws
prohibiting entry of citizens of Muslim countries in US and stopped financial
assistance to Pakistan. Although Pakistan assisted Trump administration in
reaching out an agreement with Taliban.
Prime Minister Imran Khan stated that
Pakistan has high hopes of inculcating close relations with US under
President Biden in several fields including trade, public health, climate
change and in establishing peace and tranquillity in the region. Pakistan
expects that that Biden will renew the defence ties. Islamabad also hopes that
President Biden as well as Vice President Kamala Harris would condemn India, as
both of them have strong views on human right violations and in past they
expressed their support to Kashmiris. Biden compared Kashmiris with the plight
of Uighur Muslims of China and Rohingya Muslims of Myanmar. In a statement
in June 2020 Biden asked India to reinstate the rights of Kashmiris. The
statement mentioned that “In Kashmir, the Indian government should take
all necessary steps to restore rights for all the people of Kashmir.
Restrictions on dissent, such as preventing peaceful protests or shutting or
slowing down the Internet, weaken democracy”. Vice President Harris also stated
in October 2019 that ‘We have to remind Kashmiris that they are not alone in
the world. We are keeping track of the situation. There is a need to intervene
if the situation demands.’
The Director of an Islamabad based
think tank mentioned that US Pakistan relations would depend on the results of
intra-Afghan talks and the actions of Taliban about the diminution of violence
and about the progress in ceasefire. Biden, who is a seasoned politician, will
restore the defence ties with Pakistan. There are large number of influential
US citizens of Pakistan origin and they will work hard to inculcate close
relations between both the countries.
In 2008, Joe Biden and Senator Richard
Lugar received ‘Hilal-e-Pakistan’ which is the second highest civilian honour.
Both Biden and Lugar pushed $ 1.5 billion non-military assistance to Pakistan.
The then President Asif Ali Zardari thanked both of them for supporting
Pakistan.
Imran Government will emphasise to have
parity with India and will stress that US should implement an unbiased and
justifiable policy between both the countries. Imran government will try to
convince US that the policy to help India so that it contains China is
erroneous, as India is a threat not only to Pakistan but to all its neighbours
including China, Bangladesh & Nepal. Pakistan will be a better strategic
partner of US in the region than India. Islamabad would also stress that now
India has become a fundamentalist country where the rights of minorities are
violated.
Pakistan also wants US assistance in
coming out from the ‘grey list’ of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) so that
it can get financial assistance from International Monetary Fund (IMF). It also
needs US support on China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Biden
administration may restore some financial assistance to Pakistan, which
was stopped by Trump administration. Pakistan’s participation in military
training programmes under International Military Education and Training Program
(IMET) would also be restored as US develops close relations with young
military officers which will be beneficial for the country in the long run.
Islamabad is aware that at present
Biden administration is deeply involved in internal problems hence it is
creating trouble on Indo-Pak borders and using high calibre guns and constantly
alleging that India is assisting secessionist elements in Pakistan especially
Baloch rebels. Islamabad is also threatening that both countries are nuclear
powers hence the war may be dangerous not only for the region but also for the
entire world.
Nonetheless
Pakistan should not forget that Indo-US relations are profound and
comprehensive. In October 2020 both countries signed Basic Exchange and
Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and before that the Logistics Exchange
Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications Compatibility and
Security Agreement (COMCASA) were also signed. Hence both countries have signed
all three foundational pacts for close military cooperation. In 2008 Biden
supported India-US civil nuclear deal and in 2006 mentioned in an interview
that ‘My dream is that in 2020, the two closest nations in the world will
be India and the United States. If that occurs, the world will be safer.’
Now as President of US he can full-fill the dream as it is essential to
control China which is not only threatening its neighbours but is a real danger
to the world peace. India -US defence and anti- terrorism cooperation will
further be strengthened in view of mounting threat from expansionist China,
which is showing its economic as well as military power. Hence the relations
between US and India will grow regardless of which party is in
power.
In the election campaign Biden
mentioned in a policy paper that US will support India to become a permanent
member of UN Security Council and bilateral trade between both the countries
would also enhance. Pakistan should acknowledge the reality that now it cannot
compete India and there are not much common interest between Pakistan and US.
Washington has interest in the safety of nuclear warheads Islamabad possess and
also discourages Pakistan so that it does not render assistance to terrorist
outfits. However, Afghanistan is the only leverage Pakistan has on US.
Imran Khan criticised Pakistan
government when it bestowed ‘Hilal-e-Pakistan’ to Biden. Not only this it
will not be easy for Imran government to criticise India for human right
violation in Kashmir when the Pakistani forces are involved in daylight killings
in Balochistan, rape, abduction and forced conversion of minor girls of
minority community in whole of Pakistan, bomb blasts in Shia and Ahmadi
mosques, killings and suppression of journalists, bloggers, and human right
activists.
US is aware that Inter Services
Intelligence (ISI) is involved in destabilising the elected government of
Afghanistan as Islamabad wants to have a puppet regime in Afghanistan and wants
favour from US in lieu of support in negotiations with Taliban. The
implementation of Doha accord is extremely slow as Pakistan and Taliban are
waiting for the reaction of Biden administration while Afghan President Ashraf
Ghani has requested US that it should not withdraw the troops in hurry as
Taliban has failed to fulfil their commitments under February 2020 agreement.
Biden being a seasoned politician will
employ Pakistan as well as regional specialists and they will point out
Pakistan’s duplicity in Afghanistan as well as in curbing terrorism. In
nutshell Biden may extend some favours to Pakistan for its assistance in
Afghanistan and keep it out from the clutches of China but Islamabad would not
be successful in diluting India-US relations which are based on sound footing.
The relations between India and US will be strengthened as it will be beneficial
for both the countries. The Biden team has important persons of Indian origin
and it may be an added advantage to India.
US policy makers also understand that
India’s economy is 10 times bigger than Pakistan which is surviving on loan and
financial assistance hence Pakistan’s capability to counter India is
considerably limited. However, it will continue criticising India sometimes for
its benefit and at times on behest of its all-weather friend China.
The statements of Defence Secretary
General (Retd) Lloyd Austin in front of Senate Armed Services Committee
during his confirmation are also encouraging for India. He stated that, “I
would further operationalise India’s ‘major defence partner’ status and
continue to build upon existing strong defence cooperation to ensure the US and
Indian militaries can collaborate to address shared interests.” He also
mentioned that the defence cooperation between India and US would strengthen
through the multilateral arrangements including Quad security negotiations.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services
Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in
the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Raksha ANIRVEDA
www.raksha-anirveda.com
Is ISI Crushing Dissent Through Extra Judicial Methods?
It is high time that Imran
government restore the democratic rights of the masses and the journalists,
political leaders of opposition parties are allowed to criticise government
policies. The extra-judicial killings are deplorable and must be stopped immediately
By Jai Kumar Verma
The human
right activists claim that Pakistan’s powerful Inter Services Intelligence
(ISI) is involved in extra-judicial killings of political opponents especially
Baloch freedom fighters, journalists, bloggers, and anyone raising voice
against army or government of Imran Khan. In May 2020, Arif Wazir, first cousin
of Muhammed Ali Wazir, who is a member of National Assembly and leader of
Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, was assassinated. Sajid Hussain, a Baloch leader was
found dead in mysterious circumstances in Sweden. He was a journalist and was
the Chief Editor of online newspaper Balochistan Times. His dead body was
recovered after two months of his disappearance. Sajid Hussain left Pakistan in
2012 as he was receiving death threats. According to his family members and a
press freedom charity Pakistani agents were behind his disappearance and death.
Hussain was writing against Pakistan security agencies about forced
disappearances, organised crime, and drug smuggling.
Again, another Baloch human
rights activist Karima Baloch went missing on December 20 and her drowned dead
body was recovered next day. Although Canada police investigated the case as a
non-criminal death, but the human rights activists claim that Pakistan security
agencies especially ISI agents were involved in the disappearance and later
death of Karima Baloch. Both Karima Baloch and her husband were getting death
threats. As Pakistani dissidents take refuge/ asylum in western countries
especially Europe and Canada, ISI is strengthening itself in these countries.
They are also instigating pro-Khalistan elements and there are reports that
Pakistan government is assisting retired army officers to settle in Canada and
Europe. Once they are settled in these countries ISI uses them for clandestine
operations.
In reality breakaway of
East Pakistan is the only example in modern history where majority seceded from
minority due to atrocities and mayhem by Punjabi rulers on Bengalis. The
Urdu-speaking Muhajirs migrated from India, and were patronised by General
Pervez Musharraf, are also demanding a separate state and their right on the
resources of the country. Nonetheless after General Musharraf the security
agencies resorted to raids, forced disappearances, killings etc of the leaders
of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) which is the political party of Muhajirs.
Baloch human
rights activist Karima Baloch went missing on December 20 and her drowned dead
body was recovered next day. Although Canada police investigated the case as a
non-criminal death, but the human rights activists claim that Pakistan security
agencies especially ISI agents were involved in the disappearance and later
death of Karima Baloch
The government passed new
rules known as the Citizens Protection (Against Online Harm) Rules 2020. Under
the rules it is obligatory for all international social media companies to
delete all the objectionable material pointed out by the government. The
companies will also have to provide data about all Pakistani nationals maintaining
the social media accounts and they have to maintain their data centres within
Pakistan. The media giants like Facebook and Twitter criticised these rules
while Digital Rights Foundation Pakistan commented that these rules are
stifling. The Committee to Protect Journalists has asked Pakistan government to
withdraw these rules. Even before these draconian rules passed Pakistan was
considered as one of the nastiest country for human right violations. According
to another report Pakistan government has blocked more than 800,000 websites
containing religious, social, and political material.
Human Rights Watch in its
latest report mentioned that restrictions on media has swelled and journalists
claim that Pakistan is passing through a darkest period. The Prevention of
Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) which was passed in August 2016 under the garb of
preventing blasphemy gave powers to law enforcing agencies to monitor internet
material and prosecute those who are posting objectionable contents. The
intelligence agencies especially ISI took advantage of these rules in
suppression of Baloch, Pashtun, Sindhi, Seraiki, and even Punjabi dissenters in
all fields of life including social media.
In 2017, Pakistan agencies
abducted five bloggers from different cities who were criticising the army,
when human right activists raised voices against the abductions; the security
agencies charged these bloggers with blasphemy. After the acquittal, the bloggers
narrated the shocking tales of torture during the custody. Again in 2017
security agencies arrested 27 bloggers under the charges of criticising
government agencies especially Pakistan army. These bloggers were first
kidnapped, tortured and then charged, as Pakistan army does not care for human
right violations. Besides bloggers and social media activists the security
forces also abducted, tortured, and arrested political opponents especially
supporters of Pakistan Muslim League (N).
The
Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act, which was passed in August 2016 under the
garb of preventing blasphemy, gave powers to law enforcing agencies to monitor
internet material and prosecute those who are posting objectionable contents.
The intelligence agencies especially ISI took advantage of these rules in
suppression of Baloch, Pashtun, Sindhi, Seraiki, and even Punjabi dissenters in
all fields of life including social media
Besides abductions and
torture the security agencies also resorted to extra-judicial killings.
Muhammad Bilal Khan, a Jamiat Ulema-e Islam (F) blogger, was hacked to death in
Islamabad in June 2019 as he was criticising army. He had large following in
Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook and according to them he was killed as he was
criticising army and ISI. Another journalist Aziz Memon who was working in a
newspaper in Sindh and was threatened by local police was also abducted,
tortured, and killed.
The Pakistani bloggers and
social media activists residing in exile are criticising the security forces as
well as civilian authorities. The Pakistan government is using multiple tactics
to silence these critics. Recently Pakistan government wrote British government
to take punitive action against Gul Bukhari who is a journalist and social
media activist. Pakistan government charged that Bukhari is using Britain for
her anti Pakistan activities. Besides writing to host governments, Pakistan
security agencies are also intimidating, harassing, and prosecuting the
relatives of the critics staying in Pakistan. Pakistan administration has also
employed large number of troll groups to silene the voices of dissidents
through constantly criticising, condemning, and harassing them. However,
recently the deaths in mysterious circumstances of Pakistani dissidents staying
abroad have raised suspicion on the activities of ISI.
Pakistan
security agencies especially army-controlled ISI was violating human rights
with impunity in past too. However previously, the civilian government was
trying to restrict the human rights violations, but Imran government is either
cooperating or is not in position to act against ISI. The cases of persecution,
torture and harassment of human rights activists have considerably increased
after Imran Khan became Prime Minister in August 2018 with the help of army
Imran government has also
stopped giving advertisements to ‘Dawn’ and ‘Jung,’ two important media houses
as they were not toeing government line. Steven Butler the Asia program
director of Committee to Protect Journalists was denied entry in Pakistan, also
charged that Pakistan government was using advertisements to “punish and
reward” the newspapers.
Pakistan security agencies
especially army-controlled ISI was violating human rights with impunity in past
too. However previously, the civilian government was trying to restrict the
human rights violations, but Imran government is either cooperating or is not
in position to act against ISI. The cases of persecution, torture and
harassment of human rights activists have considerably increased after Imran
Khan became Prime Minister in August 2018 with the help of army. It is high
time that Imran government restore the democratic rights of the masses and the
journalists, political leaders of opposition parties are allowed to criticise
government policies.
Source: VIF India
All government institutions
including army is run by the tax-payers money hence the public has right to
criticise their faulty policies. Imran government should make sincere efforts
to improve the economy of the country and its dependence on expansionist China
may prove dangerous in long run. In view of the poor economic condition of the
country Pakistan should also try to reduce massive expenditure on armed forces.
The extra-judicial killings are deplorable and must be stopped immediately.
-The author is a New
Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Service Institution of India
(USI) and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). The views in the
article are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views
of Raksha Anirveda
The
Independence Movement of Balochistan
In a bold departure from
the old practice, Prime Minister Modi made reference of Balochistan, Gilgit and
Baltistan, in his Independence Day speech, nonetheless the move was criticised
by Pakistan government as well as by leaders of Indian opposition parties. But
the nationalist leaders of Balochistan welcomed the move. Khan of Kalat
declared independence and never wanted to be part of Pakistan. Jinnah forcibly
merged Balochistan. The mineral rich Balochistan is the biggest province of the
country but it is the poorest region in South Asia. The Federal government with
ulterior motive is hindering the progress of the province. Pakistan government
instead of redressing the legitimate problems of the province alleges that the
insurgency in the state is fuelled by foreign powers. Baloch leaders oppose the
construction of CPEC as they fear that under the garb of CPEC Pakistan
government would settle outsiders in the state which would change the
demography of the province. The Baloch leaders also mention that CPEC is not in
the interest of the state. Pakistani forces adopted the policy of “kill and
dump” to terrorise Balochis.
Prime Minister Narendra
Modi, in a momentous departure from the old policy of defending India against
Pakistani onslaught about the human right violations in Kashmir, made a direct
reference of Balochistan freedom movement, Gilgit and Baltistan as well as of
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir from ramparts of Red Fort in his Independence Day
speech of August 15, 2016. (1)
He stated that “The way people of Balochistan, Gilgit and
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) have thanked me, they have thanked the whole
population of my country. I want to offer my gratitude to these
people”.
Before the Independence
Day speech Modi also mentioned on August 12, in all-party meeting on the
situation in Kashmir, that although he was sorry for the prevailing situation
in Kashmir but there can be no negotiation on the integrity of India. He also
mentioned emphatically that whole of Jammu & Kashmir including POK is part
of India and cross-border terrorism is responsible for turmoil in the valley.
He further stated that there are gross human right violations in Balochistan
and POK and the neighbouring country must explain to the world about these abominations.
(4)
The Prime Minister also
blamed Pakistan for eulogizing terrorists while India condemned the terrorist
attack on school children in Peshawar. The international community would
certainly observe the vast difference in the approach of both the neighbouring nations.
Here it is pertinent to note that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif termed Burhan
Wani as a “martyr” and declared that Pakistan would observe July 19 as Black
Day. Wani was the commander of Hizbul Mujahideen a terrorist outfit and was
exterminated by security forces in an encounter on July 8, 2016. (1,2&3)
Pakistan government which
has launched a low intensity war against India perpetually alleges that India
is assisting various secessionist outfits and fomenting trouble in Balochistan.
However it could not provide any trustworthy evidence about India’s assistance
to Balochistan nationalist movement. (1,2 &3)
Pakistan government was
under acute pressure from India and international community, when the Indian
security agencies provided conclusive evidences about the involvement of
Military controlled Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) in the training and
infiltration of Pakistani terrorists who attacked Pathankot Airbase on January
2, 2016. As ISI could not refute the infallible evidences, it arrested an innocent
Indian national, Kulbhushan Jadhav and alleged that he was an agent of Research
& Analysis Wing (R&AW) and was abetting secessionist organisations in
Balochistan. (5 & 8)
ISI arrested Jadhav with
the ulterior motive of distracting the world attention from its assistance to
multifarious terrorist outfits in India especially in J&K. Pakistan
publicized the arrest and involvement of Jadhav with separatist outfits of
Balochistan within the country as well as abroad. Jadhav was badly tortured and
compelled to sign several fictitious documents with the nefarious intention of
giving adverse publicity to India and concealing its own surreptitious
assistance to terrorists. Pakistan also emphasized that separatist movement of
Balochistan was not a home-grown movement but it is continuing because of
foreign assistance especially India. (5 & 8)
Pakistan which always
alleges that India is fomenting trouble in Balochistan issued a hard hitting
statement within hours of Modi’s Independence Day speech. Sartaj Aziz, Pakistani
Prime Minister’s Advisor on Foreign Affairs mentioned in a statement that
reference of Balochistan in Modi’s Independence Day speech proves Pakistan’s
contention that R&AW is inciting terrorism in Balochistan. Aziz further
alleged that Indian spy Jadhav also confessed India’s involvement in
Balochistan. Pakistan People’s Party Chairman and leader of main opposition
party Bilawal Bhutto also criticised Modi’s comments on Balochistan. He stated
that Modi’s statement was “highly provocative, irresponsible and inflammatory”.
(6 )
Pakistani analysts claimed
that Modi’s speech was harmful for Baloch cause as it confirmed Pakistan’s
argument that Balochistan secessionist movement is not indigenous but handful
of Balochis are creating law and order problems on behest of India. They also mentioned
that now Pakistani army would enhance the brutality in Balochistan as Balochi
separatist leaders would be branded as Indian agents. They also mention that
India is using Baloch issue to countervail the international attention from the
atrocities Indian security forces are committing on Kashmiris.
The strategic analysts
claim that mention of Balochistan by Prime Minister in Independence Day speech
is a gargantuan departure from the past practice. POK, Gilgit and Baltistan are
parts of India while Pakistan always claimed Balochistan as integral part of
the country.
In past Ministry of
External Affairs showed India’s concern about Balochistan in 2005 when
Pakistani Air Force bombarded Balochistan and in 2006 when Baloch leader Nawab
Akbar Khan Bugti was killed in an air raid. Several senior retired Indian
diplomats acknowledged that although it was a major change in India’s policy
towards Pakistan but they also admit that in view of Pakistan’s aggressive
policy towards India this change was obligatory.
Not only Pakistan but
opposition parties in India also reacted sharply against Modi’s speech.
Congress party as well as other political parties mentioned that the ruling
party should formulate a long term policy towards Pakistan instead of imprudent
reactions. (1,2&3)
However Indian Prime
Minister’s reference of Balochistan evoked a positive reaction from Baloch
leaders within or outside Pakistan. They welcomed the statement, as they felt
that highlighting Baloch issue by Indian Prime Minister would attract world
attention including United Nations. Chairman of the Baloch National Movement
Khalil Baloch accepted that Indian Prime Minister’s statement on Balochistan is
a “positive development”. He also
anticipated that soon “United States and Europe” would also team up with India
in condemning Pakistan for continuous atrocities on the people of Balochistan
from last 68 year. (7)
Origin of Balochistan Problem (8,9 &10)
Balochistan nationalist leaders claim for Greater Balochistan which
would include not only Balochistan province of Pakistan but also contain Sistan
and Balochistan Province in southeastern Iran and Balochistan region of
southern Afghanistan. The Baloch population in 2014 in Iran was approximately 2
million.
Before Independence Balochistan province of Pakistan was divided into
four princely states namely Makran, Las Bela, Kharan and Kalat. First three
states readily merged in Pakistan however Mir Sir Ahmad Yar Khan Ahmedzai the
then Khan of Kalat refused to merge with Pakistan and declared Kalat as an
independent nation on 15 August, 1947. Muhammad Ali Jinnah Governor General of
Pakistan threatened Khan of Kalat to amalgamate with Pakistan but when he
delayed the merger, Pakistani forces attacked Kalat in March 1948 and forcibly
merged it. Pakistani forces also compelled Ahmad Yar Khan to sign accession
treaty.
However his younger brothers Princes Agha Abdul Karim Baloch and
Muhammad Rahim continued to attack Pakistani forces under the banner of
Dosht-e-Jhalawan. In June 1958 Yar Khan declared himself as Khan of Kalat in
defiance of Government of Pakistan. Nonetheless on 6 October 1958 Pakistani
forces arrested him under the charges of sedition. His arrest provoked Balochis
and rebellion started under the leadership of Nauroz Khan. Later Yar Khan was released and his title was
also restored in 1962.
The Balochistan nationalist movement can be divided in following five
phases
First Phase of
Insurgency
The insurgency started in Balochistan when Pakistani forces forcibly
amalgamated the area ruled by Khan of Kalat on 27 March 1948. Khan of Kalat
signed accession treaty under duress but his two brothers started Guerrilla war
against Pakistani forces.
Second Phase of Insurgency
Second phase of
insurgency, in 1958 and 1959, was led by Nawab Nauroz Khan, who was the head of
Zarakzai tribes of Balochistan. Nauraz Khan revolted against Federal government
as Pakistan wanted to implement one Unit policy which was against the tribal
system of the province; nonetheless he was arrested and put in Hyderabad jail
where he died. His five family members including his sons and nephews were also
charged for treason and were hanged in jail.
In this phase Khan of Kalat also declared
independence, dishonored Pakistani flag and hoisted the old flag of Kalat.
Reports suggest that President Major General Iskandar Mirza instigated Khan of
Kalat to declare independence as he wanted to promulgate Martial Law in the
country. Pakistan was passing through a critical period and control of central
government was waning. President Iskandar Mirza under the garb of Balochistan
uprising promulgated Martial Law in whole of Pakistan, abrogated the
constitution, dismissed Central and provincial governments, banned political
parties, dissolved assemblies and appointed General Mohammed Ayub Khan, Chief
of Pakistani army as Chief Martial Law Administrator.
The then Interior
Minister Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti offered to go to Kalat and bring Khan of Kalat
for negotiations but President Iskandar Mirza who wanted to promulgate Martial
Law prohibited Bugti. Khan of Kalat was arrested on October 6, 1958 under the
charges of treason.
Balochis felt humiliated
as “Sardar of Sardars” Khan-e-Azam was arrested, jailed and mortified by
Punjabi dominated Pakistani army hence Balochis revolted against the federal
government.
Third Phase of Insurgency
The third phase of
insurgency began when a new constitution was enforced which curtailed the
provincial autonomy and introduced the ‘one unit’ concept. Pakistani army also
opened new bases in the province to strengthen its presence which was resisted
by Balochis. Besides this Balochis were also demanding the royalty for the
mineral resources including Sui gas extracted from Balochistan and sent to
other provinces. Sher Muhammad Birani Marri was the Chief of Marri tribe
launched fierce guerrilla warfare against Pakistani government from 1963 to
1969. Several other tribal heads including Mengal, Bugti etc. also joined the
struggle which covered the area of about 72000 KMs. The Balochis bombed railway
tracks, attacked army installations and convoys and killed several security
personnel. The army which retaliated with vengeance killed and arrested large
number of Balochis, raped their women and burnt their houses which further
intensified insurgency. The rebellion ended in 1969 when Pakistan government
scrapped “one Unit” policy and Balochistan became the fourth state of West
Pakistan. (1)
Fourth Phase of Insurgency
The turmoil in the state
continued at a low pace even after the ceasefire of 1969 as Pakistani forces
continued the monstrosity on
Balochis hence the fourth phase of insurgency in Balochistan commenced again in
1973 which continued till 1977. In 1973 the then president Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto
dismissed provincial governments of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and
Balochistan under the charges of sedition. Bhutto also promulgated Martial Law
in both these states. Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri who was head of Marri tribe
constituted Balochistan People’s Liberation Front (BPLF) in which large number
of fighters from Marri and Mengal tribes joined and BPLF started guerrilla war
against the federal government. Tribesmen of Marri and Mengal were spirited
fighters and killed more than 400 Pakistani armed personnel. Pakistani army
also killed thousands of Balochis, destroyed several houses, raped women and
perpetrated diverse kinds of atrocities on civilians as the real guerilla
fighters were hiding themselves in the hills where Pakistani army was hesitant
to go. In the fight against Balochistan revolutionaries, Irani forces also
helped Pakistani troops as they were afraid that the uprising may instigate Balochis
of Iran too.
Fifth Phase of Insurgency
The Punjabi dominated Pakistani army continued with carnage of Balochis
hence their freedom struggle continued. In 2005 Nawab Akbar Bugti and Mir
Baloch Marri both respected leaders of Balochistan presented a 15 point agenda
to Pakistani government demanding more autonomy, more royalty for the mineral
resources of the province and stoppage of construction of military bases in the
state. The federal government had not responded to the memorandum and meantime
the separatists attacked the frontier corps Major General Shujaat Zamir and a
brigadier.
Pakistani army became very furious and used lethal weaponry against
Balochis in which 79 years old Nawab Akbar Bugti was killed nonetheless about
60 Pakistani soldiers and 7 officers were also exterminated. President General
Pervez Musharraf charged Akbar Bugti for several bomb blasts as well as firing
of rockets with the intention to kill him. (11)
Pakistani forces abducted Baloch National Movement (BNM) President
Ghulam Mohammed Baloch and two other prominent leaders of BNM in April 2009 and
after torturing killed them and thrown their bodies in the market to show that
the rebels would be eliminated ruthlessly. Pakistani forces resorted to mayhem
but could not break the resolve of Balochis.
Mir Suleiman Dawood Khan of Kalat on August 12, 2009 declared himself as
the ruler of an independent state of Balochistan which included Sistan and
Baluchistan province of Iran. Several secessionist groups of Balochistan
including Nawabzada Brahdagh Bugti declared their allegiance to Khan of
Kalat.
The international media also commented that barbarity in Balochistan
downgraded the image of Pakistan in the world. General Abdul Waheed Kakar,
former chief of Pakistan army while criticizing the abomination by Pakistani
security forces in Balochistan also stated in a seminar in May 2010 that the
military operation launched in 2006 was “a crime against Pakistan”. He also
stated that Musharraf “committed a big mistake” by launching an operation in
Balochistan and it was totally unjustified. (11)
The Balochistan High Court issued a bailable arrest warrant against
General Musharraf, in connection of murder of Nawab Akbar Bugti. The Baloch
leader was killed at Taratani in Kohlu district in August 2006 when President
General Musharraf ordered an operation in Balochistan to suppress the
independence movement.
According to a rough estimate more than 15000 civilians were massacred
by Pakistani defence forces in Balochistan from 1973 to 2009 and more than 4500
Balochis were arrested during 2004 and 2005 while more than 1400000 persons
were displaced during Musharraf’s operation.
Exploitation
of Balochistan resources (12)
Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan has an area of 347190
KMs which is about 44 percent of Pakistan’s total area. It is a sparsely
inhabited province as the total population of the state is only 13162222
persons. 54.1 percent population of this mineral rich region is Baloch however
there is extreme exploitation of the resources of the state by Central
government and it is an important reason behind the insurgency.
According to statics Balochistan is the poorest region in South Asia and
the condition is worsening. In 1970 Balochistan’s share of GDP was 4.9 percent
which further dropped to 3.7 percent. It has the highest rate of infants and
maternal mortality and has lowest literacy rate in the country, clean drinking
water is not available, employment opportunities are very limited and because
of insurgency and poor living conditions hundreds of thousands of people are
internally displaced. Pakistani army does not allow non-governmental
organisations or international organisations to work freely in Balochistan
citing security reasons. Balochis assert
that the federal government with disingenuous reasons is methodically
prohibiting the progress of the state, although the government mentions that
because of secessionist activities Pakistani industrialists as well as foreign
investors do not want to invest in Balochistan.
Pakistani government also alleges that Baloch Sardars do not want
progress of the state as they want to retain their supremacy and that is the
reason, they oppose developmental projects.
The Federal government of Pakistan instead of developing the state
manipulates the elections so that their henchmen come to power. The nationalist
forces of Balochistan lost 2002 elections because security forces rigged the
elections so that Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) which was the coalition of six
Islamic parties including Musharraf’s Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-i-Azam
(PML-Q) won the elections and it was also a cause of insurgency in the
province.
Baloch leaders are apprehensive that the federal government is slowly
but steadily, changing the demography of Balochistan in such a way that the
Balochis would become a minority in their own state. Large number of Pakhtoons
and Afghan refugees were settled in the state which is disadvantageous to
Balochis.
Baloch leadership also opposes mega projects because these projects
bring lot of non-Balochis and they permanently settle in the state even after
the expiry of these projects.
Balochistan which supplies nearly 80 percent of natural gas and coal to
whole of Pakistan receives lowest royalty in comparison to other states. The
mineral rich Balochistan also has copper and gold mines. Not only this Central
government charges heavy cost on the name of operational charges and the money
given to the state does not reach to the masses because of rampant corruption
in the country and in the state. The central government has not developed any
road network and the roads developed by Britishers were mainly in Pashtun
inhabited areas, which is deeply resented by Balochis.
Chinese developed Gwadar port but it had not generated employment for
Balochis as Chinese brought their own engineers and workers. Pakistan
government sold adjoining land to Punjabi builders who earned huge profit but
income was not transferred to locals. In fact the property was purchased by
non-Balochis and they settled in Gwadar. Balochis protested against the
settlement of Non-Balochis and posting of army in Gwadar.
Balochis are apprehensive
that Punjabi dominated central government would make Gwadar like Karachi where
Sindhis have become in minority because of large influx of people from other
provinces.
Pakistan government with
ulterior motive has not developed the educational system in the state. The
nationalists feel that because of less education Balochis are not proficient to
work in modern day industries hence large number of workers of other states
come and settle in the province. They demand that more professional and
technical colleges, universities, educational institutions should be opened in
the state so that Balochis also obtain technical and professional education.
Balochis also point out
that Pakistani army is Punjabi dominated and Balochis are discriminated and
army crushes their independence movement ruthlessly.
Pakistan Alleges about Foreign Assistance to rebels (8)
Pakistan government alleges
that Baloch movement is not indigenous but it is abetted by foreign countries
especially India and Afghanistan. Pakistan security forces arrested an Indian
national Kulbhushan Jadhav and portrayed him as an Indian spy.
Pakistan which supports
several terrorist outfits including Hekmatyar group to create terrorist
activities in Afghanistan perpetually alleges that Afghanistan assists
Balochistan secessionist organizations. In 2012 Rehman Malik Interior Minister
of Pakistan alleged that Brahumdagh Bugti of Balochistan Republican Army had
taken houses in Kabul and Afghan intelligence personnel were rendering training
to Baloch separatists. Major General Obaidullah Khan Khattak of Frontier Corps
also alleged in 2012 that Baloch secessionist outfits were running more than 30
camps in Afghanistan where Baloch rebels were getting training.
Pakistanis also contend
that Iraq also assists Baloch rebels. In February 1973 Pakistani security
agencies searched Iraqi embassy in Islamabad and seized large cache of arms and
ammunition which was meant for Baloch secessionist outfits.
Besides these countries
Pakistan security agencies also charge that Israel and United States also
support Baloch rebels.
Gross Human Rights Violations in the state
Pakistani security forces
abducted, tortured and killed thousands of innocent Balochis between 2003 and
2012. Balochis mention that reprehensible Inter Services Intelligence (ISI)
initiated a policy of “kill and dump” to terrorize Balochis. Under this policy
they abduct suspected Baloch activists, political and student leaders and burn
and break the body parts and then throw their mutilated bodies on roads to
scare the masses.
July 2011 report of Human
Rights Commission of Pakistan clearly blames ISI and Frontier Corps for
disappearances and atrocities on Balochis. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Pakistan
Taliban also killed several Shias, Hindus and other minorities in Balochistan
on behest of ISI to intimidate Balochis and create communal disharmony.
Human right activists
mention that these systematic killings and abduction of teachers and literate
community would not only hamper the progress but take the state back to
primitive age.
Important outfits fighting for Independence of Balochistan
(8)
Baloch leaders are
fighting for the independence of the state just after the creation of Pakistan,
as the federal government continued with the discrimination and exploitation of
Balochistan, the resentment increased and several Baloch nationalist as well as
sectarian groups emerged. The prominent outfits are as follows
Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) (14
&17)
Balochistan Liberation
Army (BLA) is a prominent nationalist outfit and fights for the independence of
the state. The outfit regularly attacks the government installations and in
2000 it carried out series of bomb blasts on government offices. It was declared a terrorist outfit and banned
by Pakistan government on 7 April 2006.
BLA was getting assistance
from Russians and was very active during Russian occupation in Afghanistan. The
activities of BLA were dried up after departure of Russian forces from
Afghanistan but in 1973 large cache of arms was seized from Iraqi embassy in Islamabad
which was meant for BLA.
Khair Bakhsh Marri and
Hyrbyair Marri were the prominent leaders of BLA. ISI alleges that Russia, and
India assists BLA in training and also funds the outfit.
In December 2005 BLA fired
several rockets on a Para Military Camp where President General Musharraf was
scheduled to visit. BLA extremists also killed few teachers considered near the
administration, Punjabi labourers and security officials. On 21 November 2011
BLA killed about 40 security personnel who were guarding a private coal mine,
again on 31 December 2011 attacked the house of a former minister in which 13
persons were killed and more than 30 were injured. The BLA insurgents also
destroyed Quaid-e-Azam Residency in Balochistan in June 2013. BLA has 500 full time
cadres but has sympathy of large number of Balochis as they are fighting for
the independence of Balochistan.
The analysts mention that
the BLA has the support of other nationalist outfits especially Baloch
Republican Army (BRA), Lashkar-e-Balochistan, Balochistan Liberation United
Front (BLUF) etc.
Balochistan Republican Army (BRA) (15)
Balochistan Republican
Army (BRA) was constituted in 2006 to liberate Balochistan from the repressive
Pakistani forces. BRA is fighting for the restitution of a sovereign
Balochistan. The banned BRA uses Guerrilla techniques against Pakistani forces
and resort to ambush, sabotage and hit and run methods. It attacks Pakistani
security forces as well as their installations including communication systems,
offices, out posts, power stations, railway tracks etc. as Pakistani forces
uses these places to exploit the natural resources of the state. BRA opposes
Pakistani as well as foreign firms as all of them work against the interests of
Balochistan. The dedicated cadres of BRA successfully attacked several offices
of Pakistani and foreign firms including Chinese firms. The outfit is against
China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Brahumdagh Bugti is the president of
BRA.
Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) (17)
The ideology of Baloch
Liberation Front (BLF) led by Dr Allah Nazar, is to establish an independent
sovereign country. The organization which has 6000 active cadres continuously
attacks Pakistani forces. In July 2013 BLF militants attacked coastguard check
post and killed more than 25 coastguards. In Balochistan most of the parties
have feudal leadership but Dr. Nazar belongs to a middle class family and
participates in real fighting with the federal forces and that is the reason
that he has a great respect in BLF cadres as well as in other belligerent
groups of Balochistan. BLF was banned on September 8, 2010.
United Baloch Army (UBA) (14&17)
United Baloch Army (UBA)
was constituted due to interfamily feud between Mehran Marri and his brother
Hyrbyair Marri. BLA cadres alleged that Mehran Marri and his friends embazzled
USD 3 million and stole weapons worth USD 800 million from BLA and founded UBA.
The newly constituted party bombed a Rawalpindi-bound train at Sibi station and
killed more than 17 persons, again on 29 May, 2015 UBA militants killed 22
ehnic Pashtuns. However BRP and BLA
mention that UBA is weakening the Baloch struggle by these terrorist acts.
Pakistani government declared UBA as a terrorist organisation and banned it on
15 March 2013 nevertheless the outfit is working clandestinely.
Lashkar-e-Balochistan (17)
Javed Mengal son of
Ataullah Mengal was the founder member of Lashkar-e-Balochistan (L-e-B) and
Khan Baloch was the spokesman of the organisation. The group claimed
responsibility of series of bomb blasts in 2012 in Lahore, Karachi and Quetta
in which large number of persons were killed and wounded. The outfit is active
in Pakistan and Afghanistan and functions on the pattern of army. The lowest
unit is called Battalion which consists of about 20 militants. The outfit was
declared a terrorist organisation by Pakistan government and banned in August
2012.
Balochistan Liberation United Front (14&17)
The Balochistan Liberation
United Front (BLUF) was founded in 2009 and it was carved out from the cadres
of Baloch Students Organisation (BSO). The outfit came to limelight in February
2009 when it kidnapped John Solecki an American who was working at Quetta for United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The outfit demanded
release of several Balochis who were in Pakistani prisons but in April Solecki
was released on humanitarian grounds. According to statics BLUF carried out
about 28 terrorist attacks in which about 29 persons were killed including
Shafq Ahmed Khan the education minister of the Balochistan province. The outfit
was banned by Pakistan government on September 8, 2010.
Baloch Students Organisation (14&17)
Balochistan Students
Organisation (BSO) was founded in November 1967 at Karachi and it is a largest
Baloch organisation but it is divided in various smaller factions like BSO
(Pajjar), BSO (Mengal) and BSO (Azad). BSO (Azad) was declared a terrorist
organisation by Pakistan government and banned on March 15, 2013. There were
several splinter groups including BSO (Awami), BSO(Sohb), BSO(Yaseen),
BSO(Hayee), BSO(Aman), BSO(Star), BSO(Nadir), BSO(Muttahida) etc. These
factions had some ideological and personal differences but overtly all were
against the subjugation of Balochistan by Islamabad.
Baloch Nationalist Parties are against CPEC (5&22)
The 3000 KMs long China
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would connect Gwadar port of Balochistan to
Xinjiang region of China. USD 46 billion mega project includes several
hydro-power projects, railway tracks, multi-lane all weather highways etc. The federal government claims that CPEC would
provide more than 700000 jobs and would uplift the economic condition of
Balochistan.
The nationalist leaders of
Balochistan contradict the claim and point out that CPEC is neither good for
Pakistan nor beneficial to Balochistan, it would only be advantageous to China.
They further reveal that several projects had to be made by Pakistan and the
present economic condition of the country is pitiable and it cannot afford to
complete these projects. The economists also claim that China is giving loan at
a higher rate of interest and Pakistan would not able to repay the same. The
other terms and conditions of the agreement are kept secret which may damage
the country in long run. Balochis claim that China might act like East India
Company and would hegemonize the area.
However the principal
objection of Balochis is that although the CPEC is passing through their areas
but the basic benefits would be usurped by Punjabis. They also fear that under
the garb of CPEC several non-Balochis would come and settle in Balochistan and
would change the demography of the province. Not only this, government would
extract more minerals from the state without giving due compensation.
The Baloch nationalist
organisations have already threatened that they would not allow CPEC to pass
from their areas. Pakistan government has to provide extra security to Chinese
workers as in past few Chinese were already killed by these outfits.
Chinese are also
apprehensive about the security of their personnel who would be working on this
mega project. The Baloch nationalist outfits attacked electricity grid in January
which disrupted about 80 percent power supply of the country. In past Chinese
engineers and workers were kidnapped and killed by different terrorist
organisations. Baloch rebels also interrupted the supply of articles to Chinese
firms although it seldom comes in the press. Baloch nationalists also attack
Chinese to hamper the work in Gwadar sea port. The analysts indicate that
Chinese would not invest the promised money in CPEC as it passes through
turbulent region where the clout of Pakistan government does not exist.
Way Forward
First of all Pakistan should
discontinue fomenting trouble in other
countries especially in India and Afghanistan and should also stop alleging
that other countries are assisting Baloch rebels. The despicable ISI arrested
an innocent Indian Kulbhushan Jadhav and after inhuman torture got the
statements signed that he was an Indian spy, nevertheless ISI had no proof
against him and on December 7 Sartaj Aziz, Foreign Affairs Advisor to Prime
Minister accepted that Jadhav was arrested with “insufficient evidence” and the
security agencies have no proof except the statements of Jadhav. It strengthens
Indian point of view that India is not involved in Balochistan uprising. (18)
In fact Pakistani
government should develop infrastructure, open educational institutions,
construct all weather roads, new industries should be established, jobs should
be created and work must be done on women empowerment so there is all round
development of the state. The security forces should also stop gross human
right violations in the state. Pakistan government should also give more
autonomy and royalty to Balochistan.
Pakistan government should
restore proper law and order in the state as the deteriorated law and order
strengthens the insurgency. At present the nationalist outfits successfully
attacked more or less all government installations including army
cantonments.
The security agencies
should galvanize its intelligence network and should use more technical gadgets
to unearth separatists instead of using primitive police techniques of torture and
getting forged statements signed. These primordial techniques generate more
hatred towards the government.
Federal government of
Pakistan should try to resolve the grievances of the people of Balochistan
otherwise nationalist elements of Sindh, Pakhtoon Khawa, Gilgit, Baltistan,
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir would also revolt against Punjabi dominated Central
Government. On February 25, 2012 Sindh
nationalists bombed railway tracks in Karachi, Hyderabad, Benazirabad, Mirpur
Mathilo, Khairpur and Ghotki which disrupted the railway traffic of whole of
Sindh. It was the handiwork of Sindhu
Desh Liberation Army (SDLA) which is fighting for the establishment of Sindhu
Desh. (19)
The military controlled
federal government is not allowing independent or foreign journalists to visit
and report about the real picture of Balochistan, virtually there is a news
blackout. The media is under tremendous pressure to paint a positive picture of
security forces and the condition of Balochistan. As media is not allowed to depict
true picture of the province there is very less coverage of the province in the
national newspapers. The government must lift the embargo from the press so
that the journalists can project the true picture; it will help Islamabad to
formulate the long term policy about Balochistan.
Notes and
References
(1) In policy shift, Narendra
Modi brings up Balochistan again ; The Hindu Dated August 16
(2) Narendra Modi’s speech on
Independence Day 2016: Here are the top quotes. Express Web Desk New Delhi
August 15, 2016.
(3) PM Narendra Modi’s
Balochistan remark: The full story so far: Express Web Desk, August 26, 2016
(4) The Quint Kashmir after Burhan Wani POK very
much Part of India: PM Modi at All-Party Meet by Hansa Malhotra; August 12,
2016.
(5) Baloch Problem and Arrest
of Jadhav: India-Pak Ties Again Hit New
Low by Jai Kumar Verma; The Indiasaga.com dated May 13.
(6) Modi’s remarks on
Balochistan prove Pakistan’s contention: Aziz
Deccan Herald Sunday 27, November 2016.
(7) Why Modi’s statements
should be the least of our worries on Balochistan By Malik Siraj Akbar: Dawn
August 20, 2016
(8) Balochistan Conflict
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(9) Ahmad of Kalat from
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(10)
Balochistan Insurgency-Second conflict 1958-59 led By Nawab
Noroz Khan – Global Security.org
(11)
Musharraf’s Balochistan operation was a mistake By Asim Awan
The Express Tribune dated May 16, 2010.
(12)
Why Pakistan is Embarrassed to talk about Balochistan By
Malik Siraj Akbar The Huffington Post
(13)
List of Banned Outfits in Pakistan: Pak Tea House February 5th,
2014 Courtesy www.pinfo.pk
(14)
Balochistan Liberation Army from Wikipedia, the free
encyclopedia
(15)
Balochistan Republican Army , April 14, 2013 The defenders of
Motherland December 7, 2016
(16)
Baluch Liberation Front from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(17)
Situationer: Who’s who of Baloch insurgency Dawn News Urdu
dated June 01, 2015.
(18)
No conclusive proof against ‘Indian spy’ Jadhav: Aziz The
Times of India dated 08.12.2016.
(19)
Baloch rebels inspire separatists in Sindh Pakistan Defence
Dated March 9, 2012.
(20)
Causes of Insurgency Pages from 219 to 244 of Balochistan in
Turmoil By Alok Bansal
(21)
Baloch Problem and Arrest of Jadhav: India-Pak Ties Again hit
a New Low By Jai Kumar Verma www.the
Indiasaga.com
(22)
China-Pakistan corridor against India’s strategic interests
By Jai Kumar Verma South Asia Monitor Dated 29.10.2016.
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Home › Spotlight › Imran Government accorded
Provincial Status to Gilgit and Baltistan under Chinese pressure
Imran
Government Accorded Provincial Status To Gilgit And Baltistan Under Chinese
Pressure
By
Jai Kumar Verma
New
Delhi. 05 November 2020. On 1
November 2020 Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan while delivering speech at
Gilgit announced that the Pakistan government had decided to accord “provisional provincial status to
Gilgit-Baltistan”. He also mentioned that by according provincial status to
Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) he fulfilled the long-standing demand of the people of
the region. Imran Khan also clarified that the decision to upgrade the status
of GB is within the ambit of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution.
The Pakistan Prime Minister had not clarified when this plan will be
implemented. Ali Amin Gandapur Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs and
Gilgit-Baltistan also stated that the government would raise the status of GB
and it would become the fifth province of Pakistan.
According to legal experts constitutional amendment would be required
for making Gilgit and Baltistan as a fifth province of Pakistan and for
constitution amendment Imran Khan needs two-thirds majority in parliament and
the present government does not have the two-thirds majority.
In past also the previous governments discussed the proposal and wanted
to convert it into fifth province, but the proposal was not implemented as it
was thought that it would weaken Pakistan’s case in United Nations Organisation
(UNO) for claiming control over whole of Jammu and Kashmir.
Courtesy:
Radio Free Europe
The present proposal of Imran Khan was immediately criticised by India
as whole of Kashmir is an integral part of India, and Pakistan has illegally
occupied some part of Kashmir including Gilgit and Baltistan. The Ministry of
External Affairs (MEA) spokesman Anurag Srivastava mentioned that “The
Government of India firmly rejects the attempt by Pakistan to bring material
changes to a part of Indian territory, under its illegal and forcible
occupation. I reiterate that the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and
Ladakh, including the area of so-called “Gilgit-Baltistan”, are an integral
part of India by virtue of the legal, complete and irrevocable accession of
Jammu and Kashmir to the Union of India in 1947. “
The MEA spokesman in reply of media queries also declared that “The
Government of Pakistan has no locus standi on territories illegally and
forcibly occupied by it. Such attempts by Pakistan, intended to camouflage its
illegal occupation, cannot hide the grave human rights violations, exploitation
and denial of freedom for over seven decades to the people residing in these
Pakistan occupied territories. Instead of seeking to alter the status of these
Indian territories, we call upon Pakistan to immediately vacate all areas under
its illegal occupation.”
Gilgit-Baltistan which has the population of about 1.2 million is
strategically located. It shares borders with three nuclear powers including
India, Pakistan and China. It also links Central Asia, Southwest Asia and South
Asia. In fact, Middle East countries and Russia are also quite near to
Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B). The expansionist China wants to control G-B so that it
can exploit its minerals, huge water resources and strategic location. The
massive construction activities and movement of vehicles because of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has caused environmental damage in the
region.
It is also claimed that Imran government failed to take any concrete
action when India defanged article 370 from Kashmir on 5 August 2019 under
which J&K was availing special status as well as limited autonomy. Khan
government tried to exploit Kashmir issue in international forums but most of
the countries bluntly conveyed that it was the internal matter of India. The
Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) also failed to carry out any big terrorist
activity in India including J&K hence Pakistani masses took it as the
failure of the government. Hence the current announcement of making G-B as
fifth province would give some solace to the local Pakistanis.
Nonetheless numerous activists
demurred government’s move and declared that the government took this decision
under pressure from China. Dr Amjad Ayub Mirza who is human right activist and
hails from Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (PoJK) and at
present settled in United Kingdom mentioned that the present move of Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to make GB as fifth province of Pakistan is with ulterior
motive of subjugating Shia populated GB under Sunni dominated Islamabad. Ayub
also raised this issue in 45th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council. Ayub also
mentioned that on 31 October 1947 Pakistan with the collaboration of British
Officers of Gilgit scouts occupied GB illegally.
The European Foundation for
South Asian Studies claimed that the decision of making GB as fifth province of
Pakistan is not the decision of civilian government, but this decision was
taken by army on behest of China. Beijing pressured Pakistan army to guarantee its investments in CPEC which passes
through GB.
Engineer Khurram Dastgir Khan former Defence Minister in Pakistan also
wrote a letter to Pakistan’s Parliamentary Kashmir Committee in which he warned
that there will be severe complications if the constitutional status of GB is
altered and it will be converted to fifth province of Pakistan. The former
minister also mentioned that the change “will destroy the case for
self-determination of the Kashmiri people” in UNO. Imran government also
announced that there will be elections in GB on November 15. The critics also
claim that the government made this announcement in view of the forthcoming
elections in GB.
So far Pakistan was reigning GB through provisional ordinances just to
project to the world that the autonomy of GB is intact. In compliance of
Karachi Agreement of 1949 Pakistan ruled the GB through Frontier Crime
Regulation however in 1975 these regulations were abolished, and civil and
criminal laws of the country were enforced in GB. In 1994 Northern Areas
Council Legal Framework was enforced nonetheless in 2009 it was replaced by
Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance Order (2009) while Gilgit
Baltistan Order substituted it in 2018. The frequent changes in GB gives
ample proof that Pakistan government was never clear how to rule GB.
Courtesy: tribune.com.pk
The local inhabitants of GB also claim that Pakistan authorities have
seized their land and given to Chinese for constructing CPEC and the resources
of GB are being exploited by Pakistan authorities as well as Chinese while the
local residents are deprived of the benefits. Human right activists claim that
Pakistan authorities are involved in illegal arrests and disappearances of
dissidents.
Sardar Shaukat Ali Kashmiri
Chairman of United Kashmir People’s National Party (UKPNP) also criticised
Pakistan government’s move to convert GB as fifth province of Pakistan. Shaukat
Ali also spoke in United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) against
the atrocities of Pakistan government and appealed UNHRC to pressurise
Islamabad to stop human right violations in GB. Chinese are also worried as
more than a dozen political parties, civil society groups including Balwaristan
National Front, United Kashmir People’s National Party, Gilgit-Baltistan National
Alliance (GBNA), Gilgit-Baltistan United
Movement (GBUM) are against CPEC and Chinese presence in Gilgit and
Baltistan. The opposition groups claim that China as well as Islamabad are
converting GB into their colony and Chinese are establishing townships in
GB.
ISI as well as terrorist outfits including Lashkar-e-Taiba,
Harkat-ul-Ansar, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Al-Badr, have established several
terrorist camps in the region. As ISI was using the area for waging low
intensity war against India and Afghanistan Pakistan authorities kept the area
underdeveloped and without much communication.
Courtesy : http://cpecinfo.com/
It is unfortunate that Pakistan is playing in the hands of China which
is an expansionist country. An important Chinese think tank suggested Islamabad
that Pakistan government should approach UN-monitored plebiscite in POK and
should declare GB as fifth province by this move India will come under severe
pressure. However, the Chinese think tank’s suggestion was not only baseless
but was with ulterior motive to safeguard Chinese investment in CPEC.
Conversion of GB into fifth province was criticised not only by leaders
of GB but Prime Minister of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Raja Farooq Haider
also stated that merger of GB into Pakistan will cause immense damage to
Kashmir issue in UNO. He also mentioned that it will be in the interest of
enemies of J&K. Not only this leaders in J&K like Syed Ali Shah
Geelani, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, and Muhammad Yasin Malik also issued a joint
statement on 17 March 2017 that “Any proposal to declare Gilgit-Baltistan as
the fifth province of Pakistan is unacceptable as it tantamount to changing the
disputed nature of Kashmir”. Pakistani analysts are also opposed to the idea of
merger of GB into Pakistan.
Hence Imran government instead
of doing an unconstitutional act just to please China should devote more time
and energy in improving the financial condition of the country. The Financial
Action Task Force (FATF) is not satisfied as Islamabad failed to fulfil most of
its objections. Although FATF is keeping Pakistan in ‘grey list’ but there is
always danger of downgrading it to ‘black list’. Pakistan should also stop its
proxy war against India on behest of Beijing. China is an expansionist country and sooner
or later Beijing will exploit the mineral resources of Pakistan and will also
occupy arable land of GB.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services
Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in
the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Raksha ANIRVEDA
www.raksha-anirveda.com
https://www.raksha-anirveda.com/is-pakistan-heading-towards-a-civil-war/
Is Pakistan Heading Towards a Civil War?
Following the
skyrocketed prices of essential commodities and rampant corruption in the
country, civil authorities’ suffering from undue interference of the army and
the latest shooting incident between Sindh police and army, to name a few,
compelled the Pakistan watchers to believe that the nation is heading towards a
civil war
October 31, 2020EditorForeign Affairs
By Jai Kumar Verma
Pakistan which has already undergone one dissection has not amended its
ways of doing business; hence secessionist elements are strengthening in more
than one state especially in Balochistan. Meanwhile ‘civil-war like situation’
is brewing up in whole of country. On October 22 clashes took place between
Sindh police and Pakistan army in Karachi when army wanted to take custody of
Aftab Anwar, a superintendent of Sindh Police. In the heavy exchange of fire
between Sindh police and army, 10 persons were killed.
On October 19,
Pakistan army also abducted Inspector General of Sindh police Mushtaq Ahmad
Mahar. Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) spokesman told a TV channel that he was
abducted and compelled to sign an order to arrest Captain (R) Safdar Awan, a
leader of Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and husband of PML-N Vice
President Maryam Nawaz. Maryam alleged that when Sindh police chief refused to
sign arrest orders, he was forcibly taken to sector commander’s office and was
also told that Safdar would be arrested by Pakistan Rangers but once he signed
the papers, he was told that Sindh police will arrest Safdar.
Both Maryam and
Safdar were in Karachi to participate in a rally called by Pakistan Democratic
Movement (PDM). Safdar was arrested from his hotel room on October 19 but
released on bail after some time.
Bilawal Bhutto
Zardari, Chairman of PPP, which is a ruling party in Sindh stated in a press
conference that the senior police officers were also thinking “who were the
people who surrounded the police chief residence” and took him away to an
unknown destination.
All top-ranking police officers of Sindh police had applied for earned
leave, following the abduction and humiliation meted out to Pakistan police
chief, which created a difficult situation for the Imran Khan government which
is already in trouble because of diverse reasons
However, as the
news about abduction of police chief spread, 10 Additional Inspector Generals
(AIGs), 16 Deputy Inspector Generals (DIGs) and 40 Senior Superintendents of
Police (SSPs) applied for earned leave against the abduction of their chief as
well as other humiliations done by the army. In fact, all top-ranking police
officers of Sindh police had applied for earned leave that created a difficult
situation for the Imran Khan government which is already in trouble because of
diverse reasons.
According to
unconfirmed reports, army took control of more or less all police stations in
Karachi. An army armoured vehicle ran over women and children who were blocking
the road which caused few deaths and lot of resentment in public. It is also
reported in social media that Sindh police fears that army may attack police in
different cities of Sindh hence police personnel are gathering arms and
ammunition so that they can resist army’s attack. Police have also demanding to
lodge a First Information Report (FIR) against Pakistan army.
Maryam Nawaz,
daughter of Nawaz Sharif, mentioned that her husband Mohammed Safdar was
arrested as government wanted to disrupt the opposition alliance formed against
it. She gave a terse message to government through a journalist when she
mentioned that “Don’t blackmail me through my family and people around me. Come
arrest me if you have courage.”
The civilian government led by Imran Khan could not take any action on
‘Karachi incident’ as all powerful Pakistan army was involved in the episode
but Chief of Army Staff Qamar Javed Bajwa took notice and ordered an immediate
enquiry into it
The civilian
government led by Imran Khan could not take any action on ‘Karachi incident’ as
all powerful Pakistan army was involved in the episode but Chief of Army Staff
Qamar Javed Bajwa took notice and ordered an immediate enquiry into it. The
Karachi Corps commander was told to enquire and report the matter urgently.
General Bajwa also telephoned Bilawal Bhutto and told him to discuss the issue
in the evening.
Analysts claim that
General Bajwa ordered an urgent enquiry as the incident has downgraded the
image of army, which claims itself as the saviour of Pakistan. The people are
unhappy as they feel that army has installed a puppet regime under Prime
Minister Imran Khan and taken police chief into custody may be akin to a coup.
File photo
In September 2020,
11 important political parties of the country constituted a joint front under
the name of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and initiated a countrywide
agitation against Imran government and also criticised the army. The PDM which
is led by Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, the leader of the Islamist Jamiat
Ulema-e-Islam (F) include Pakistan Muslim League (N), Pakistan Peoples’ Party,
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), Awami National Party, Balochistan National Party
(Mengal),Jamiat Ahle Hadith, National Party – Bizenjo, Pashtun Tahafuz
Movement, Qaumi Watan Party and Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party.
In September 2020, 11 important political parties of the country
constituted a joint front under the name of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM)
and initiated a countrywide agitation against Imran government and also
criticised the army
PDM leaders assert
that 2018 general election was rigged by army in favour of Tehreek-e-Insaf
Party and installed Imran Khan as puppet Prime Minister. The PDM has coined a
slogan “vote ko izzat do” (respect the sanctity of the vote”). The PDM has
already organised massive rallies at Gujranwala (October 16), Karachi (October
18) and Quetta (October 25) and planned to organise rallies at Peshawar on
November 22, Multan on November 30, while the final rally will held at Larkana
on December 27. After these demonstrations the PDM has announced to hold a
“long March” in January which would overthrow the Imran government. Nonetheless
government alleges that both PPP and PML (N) are neck deep in corruption hence
organising these demonstrations to distract public attention.
In all the rallies,
the Chiefs of these political parties attacked Imran government and mentioned
that it failed to fulfil its promises. Three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
addressed the demonstrators through video link from London. He not only criticised
Imran Khan but also targeted army chief General Bajwa for overthrowing his
elected government through pressurising judiciary in 2017.
The deposed prime
minister stated before the boisterous crowd that “This incompetent government
has made lives of the masses miserable.” The prices of essential commodities
are out of reach of the common people. Sharif raised a question who should be
blamed for it, the incompetent government or the army which installed Imran
government. PML-N Vice President Maryam Nawaz, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto and
JUI (F) Chief Maualana Fazlur Rehman also criticised and condemned Imran
government for its inefficiency and corruption.
Pakistan watchers
feel that the nation is heading towards a civil war. The prices of essential commodities
are skyrocketed and there is rampant corruption in the country. The civil
authorities are suffering from undue interference of the army and the shooting
incident between Sindh police and army at Karachi is an example of the same.
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has again put Pakistan in ‘grey list’ on
October 23 and cautioned it to comply all 27 points by February 2021 otherwise
it will be downgraded to ‘black list.’ As Pakistan continues to remain in ‘grey
list’ it is difficult for it to avail financial assistance from World Bank,
Asian Development Bank (ADB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well as from
European Union (EU), which will worsen its financial condition which is already
in pitiable condition.
The FATF has again put Pakistan in ‘grey list’ on October 23 and
cautioned it to comply all 27 points by February 2021 otherwise it will be
downgraded to ‘black list.’ As Pakistan continues to remain in ‘grey list’ it
is difficult for it to avail financial assistance from World Bank, ADB, IMF as
well as from EU, which will worsen its financial condition which is already in
pitiable condition
The public is also
suffering because of increased terrorism and gun culture in the country. The
economic condition is not improving due to several reasons including population
explosion. The inhabitants of all the states except Punjab feel that they are
treated as second-or third-class citizens in their own country. The Islamic
extremists do not consider Shias as true Muslims and the gulf between Sunnis
and Shias is increasing. The atrocities on minorities are growing and they live
in constant fear.
In view of the
present precarious situation and massive opposition, General Bajwa may
sacrifice Imran Khan as the opposition leaders except Nawaz Sharif are mainly
targeting Imran government. Pakistan army claims that it is defending the whole
nation and not any political party. Army does not want to involve itself in any
controversy or criticism for helping Imran Khan in 2018 elections. Hence the
army may oust Imran Khan to defend itself and save the country from a civil
war.
-Jai Kumar Verma is
a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer.
He is also member of United Services Institute of India (USI) and Institute for
Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). The views in the article are solely of the
author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT
CHANGE THEM
General Akbar Khan Shatters The Myth That In 1947 Kashmir Was Raided By Tribal
183
By Jai Kumar VermaNew Delhi. 19 October 2020. The book “Raiders in Kashmir” authored by retired Major General Akbar Khan of Pakistan Army contradicts the myth that tribals raided Kashmir in 1947-48. General Khan not only confessed that Pakistan directly assisted the raiders in Kashmir but also gave the graphic details of the involvement of Pakistan Army. He also narrated that Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah who was Pakistan’s first Governor General was fully aware of Pakistan’s assistance while Prime Minister Liaqat Ali Khan was not only cognizant but was helping in procurement of weapons, finance etc. The retired Major General not only boldly accepts Pakistan’s assistance to Jihadists but also tries to justify the backing. He also gave details that how he himself was present in Kashmir though he was a serving officer of Pakistan army.
Akbar Khan
also asserts that according to the basic concept of creation of Pakistan, the
Muslim majority area had to be merged in Pakistan hence Kashmir which had about
75 percent Muslim population had to be an integral part of Pakistan. At the
time of partition Kashmir’s 84,500 square miles area had no effective rail or
road linkage with India. The letter K in PaKistan is for Kashmir. The writer
also mentioned that Kashmir was essential for Pakistan because of strategic as
well as economic reasons.
The book
also mentions about ‘Operation Gulmarg’ which was planned and launched by
Pakistan army. The army Headquarters did the planning and groundwork of
Operation Gulmarg since August 1947 i.e. soon after Pakistan was carved out
from India. Under the operation support was extended to raiders of Kashmir. The
writer recounts the details of the conspiracy hatched in Lahore and Rawalpindi
to capture Kashmir through brute force with the complete concurrence of the
rulers in Pakistan.
Major
General (Retd) Akbar Khan was the member of Armed Forces Partition
Sub-Committee in 1947 hence he had full idea that the total strength of
Maharaja Hari Singh’s army was 9,000 only and out of these 2,000 were Muslims.
Hence the effective strength against Pakistan’s invaders who were Muslims was
only 7,000 and that too was posted at different places. Hence the most
important thing was to choke the routes from where Indian army can enter
Kashmir. Pakistan expected that as Kashmir had majority Muslim population it
will be merged into Pakistan. They also threatened in case of necessity
Pakistan will also use force to capture it.
Akbar Khan
mentions how Pakistan army together with tribal forces intruded in Kashmir and
how they were also involved in loot, rape and mayhem. He also mentions that in
September 1947 he was told to chalk out a plan so that Kashmir can be captured
forcibly. At that time, he was serving as Director of Weapons and Equipment
(DW&E) in GHQ hence he had complete details of the arms and ammunition
available in Pakistan and how much can be spared for Kashmiri invaders.
However, the problem was firstly most of the weapons were lying in Delhi and
secondly officially the weapons had to come through British Commander-in-Chief,
and he will never allow to distribute the weapons of Pakistan army to Kashmiri
raiders. However, the author diverted 4000 rifles of Punjab police to Kashmiri
raiders. Besides these rifles other weapons were taken from illegal weapon
market of FATA area. The author also gives details of the condemned weapons
were given to raiders of Kashmir. Lieutenant Colonel Masud of the Cavalry also
agreed to give condemned ammunition to Zaman Kiani and Khursid Anwar for
distribution to raiders of Kashmir. Air Commodore Janjua gave winter clothing,
ammunition and weapons from the stock of Air Force to Kashmir raiders. Kashmiri
raiders included Pakistan army serving personnel also.
Khwaja
Abdul Rahim, Commissioner Rawalpindi collected weapons, ration, money and even
volunteers for attacking Kashmir. Prime Minister Liaqat Ali imported Light
Machine Guns from Italy.
As trained
army personnel were required Pakistan army enrolled Ex-Army officers of the
I.N.A. (Indian National Army). The book also mentions that though the author
captioned his plan as “Armed Revolt inside Kashmir” but makes it clear that
“open interference or aggression by Pakistan was obviously undesirable”.
Akbar Khan
made 12 copies of his plan which included the distribution of the weapons to
Kashmir invaders. He was called to Lahore where in a high-level meeting which
was presided over by Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan and attended by Finance
Minister Ghulam Mohammad (later Governor General), Mian Iftikharruddin, Zaman
Kiani, Khurshid Anwar, Sardar Shaukat Hayat Khan. In the meeting, Akbar Khan’s
plan how to conquer Kashmir was accepted. Sardar Shaukat Hayat was made the
overall commander while Khurshid Anwar and Zaman Kiani were made commander of
the northern and southern sectors respectively. After some time, Akbar Khan was
made Military Adviser to Prime Minister so that he can devote full time in
implementation of the plan to capture Kashmir.
Major
General Khan mentioned that Pakistani raiders crossed the border on 22 October
1947 and invaded Muzaffarabad and Domel on 24 October. The troops of Maharaja
Hari Singh could not stop Pakistani troops which went ahead on Srinagar road
and captured Uri. Baramula was captured on 26 October and the raiders butchered
about 11,000 persons out of 14,000. The slaughtered people were mainly
non-Muslims which indicates that it was religious cleansing.
The
Pakistani raiders were moving towards Srinagar but in the meantime Maharaja
Hari Singh realised the worsening situation and signed the accession to India.
Once he acceded to India, immediately Indian troops reached Kashmir. Prime
Minister of Pakistan called an urgent meeting on 27 October to chalk out a plan
in view of Kashmir’s accession to India and Indian troops reaching Kashmir.
Akbar Khan was also called, and it was decided to attack Jammu and block the
road so that Indian forces fail to send troops to Srinagar. The liquidation of
Jammu became so important that even Jinnah came in the meeting of military top
brass and instructed army to attack Jammu. When General Gracey the Britisher
acting C-in-C of Pakistan army was told to attack Jammu he refused and
mentioned that he will implement the order only after getting approval from
Supreme Commander stationed in New Delhi.
Akbar Khan
went to Kashmir and found that Pakistani troops are just four miles away from
Srinagar and also assessed the requirements of the Pakistan army and found that
troops needed armoured cars. Khan went to Rawalpindi and met Colonel Masud who
agreed to send the Pak army personnel in plain clothes with armoured cars to
fight as tribal. Pak army personnel from Karachi were also ready to come and
fight as civilians though reluctantly. However meanwhile Indian army came out
of Srinagar and Pakistani forces and tribals retreated to Uri without much
resistance and later refused to fight although Akbar Khan tried to persuade
them to stay and struggle.
The book
also deals with several instances where Pakistan failed to take correct
decisions because of over enthusiasm and desperation to capture Kashmir through
force. The book also makes it clear that although Pakistan army personnel were
involved in turmoil, pandemonium, loot and rape in Kashmir along with the tribal
but Major General Khan had no repentance for it. It is good if the younger
generation reads the book and understands that Pakistan is responsible for most
of the problems Kashmir is facing today.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services
Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in
the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at
editor.adu@gmail.com)
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT
CHANGE THEM
India – Saudi Bond Strengthens As Islamabad-
Riyadh Ties Strain
Hits 242
Courtesy:
Kashmir Age
By
Jai Kumar Verma
New
Delhi. 22 August 2020. Shah Mehmood Qureshi
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister stated at a Urdu talk show recently, “I am
once again respectfully telling OIC that a meeting of the Council of Foreign
Ministers is our expectation. If you cannot convene it, then I’ll be compelled
to ask Prime Minister Imran Khan to call a meeting of the Islamic countries
that are ready to stand with us on the issue of Kashmir and support the oppressed
Kashmiris.” In reply of a question Qureshi also mentioned that Pakistan will
move forward “with or without” Saudi Arabia.
Not only this, Pakistan foreign office
also confirmed Qureshi’s statement and mentioned that the statement full-fills
the wishes of Pakistanis. Islamabad was trying to convene a special meeting of
the Council of Foreign Ministers of the 57 members Orgnisation of Islamic
Cooperation (OIC) on Kashmir, but Saudi Arabia thwarted Pakistani initiative.
Pakistan wanted to gain the support of Muslim countries on the Kashmir issue
after 5 August 2019 when India revoked Article 370 which ended the special
status of Jammu & Kashmir.
Pakistan was disappointed when in 2019
foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) had gone to
Islamabad to show their support after annulment of Article 370, but their
statements were mild, and they had not criticised India emphatically. The basic
reason of Saudi Arabia’s soft corner towards India is escalating trade
relations with India. The bilateral trade between both the countries is about $
20 billion and Riyadh is India’s fourth-largest trading partner.
Courtesy :
Geo TV
Defence and security cooperation
between both India and Saudi Arabia is also growing rapidly. The relations
between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are very close and Pakistan’s economy which
is in shambles depends on the financial assistance rendered by Riyadh. Hence
General Qamar Javed Bajwa Chief of Pakistan Army and Lt. General Faiz Hameed
Chief of powerful Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) went to Saudi Arabia on 17
August to alleviate the friction generated because of the statement given by
Qureshi for not calling the meeting of OIC by Saudi Arabia. Although Saudi
Arabia had not replied the statement of Qureshi, but Riyadh had started showing
its resentment through withdrawing the financial assistance.
Courtesy :
Arab news
Riyadh gave a very cold reception to
General Bajwa and crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) refused to meet him.
The visiting Pakistani General was received by Saudi Chief of General Staff
Major General Fayyad bin Hammad Al-Ruwaili and he could only meet with Saudi
Vice Minister of Defence Khalid bin Salman. The real object of General Bajwa’s
visit to Saudi Arabia was to request it not to insist on early repayment of $ 3
billion loan given by the kingdom, although Pakistan repaid $ 1 billion loan to
Riyadh with the support of China. Riyadh had not extended the oil credit
facility of deferred payment of $3.2 billion a year. Although the facility was expired
in July and Pakistan requested to extend the facility.
Saudi Arabia rendered financial
assistance to Pakistan several times. In November 2018 when Pakistan was in
dire need of financial assistance Riyadh sanctioned a loan package of more than
$ 6 billion. Again in 2019 Riyadh promised to invest $ 20 billion including a $
10 billion investment in Gwadar. Riyadh also promised to set up an oil refinery
and petrochemical industry at Gwadar which will have a capacity of 500,000
barrels a day. The oil would be exported to China and also to land-locked
Central Asian countries from Gwadar refinery.
Riyadh took the statement of Qureshi
seriously and the relations between both the countries would be affected.
Nonetheless both the countries have ‘special relationship’ and despite India
and Saudi Arabia are developing strong economic relationship and Pakistan has
close relations with Iran but Pakistan will remain Saudi Arabia’s closest
Muslim ally. In fact, Pakistan provides internal as well as external security to
Saudi Arabia as well as to the ruling family.
Economically Saudi Arabia rescues
Pakistan from grave economic troubles. Riyadh is the biggest supplier of
petroleum products to Pakistan. Large number of Pakistanis work in Saudi Arabia
and their remittances are a major source of foreign currency to Pakistan. The
Pakistanis working in Saudi Arabia remit about $5 billion every year. In recent
past several agreements were signed between both the countries which would
enhance the bilateral trade, education, tourism, agriculture, information
technology and communications. Riyadh also assisted Islamabad in developing
trade with the members of Gulf Cooperation Council.
Besides economic relations both
countries have close military relationship. Pakistan provides training, arms
and ammunition to Saudi armed forces. According to reports about 70,000
Pakistan military personnel are working in the defence forces of Saudi Arabia.
Pakistani pilots flew aircraft of the Saudi Air Force. Saudi Arabia is the
largest importer of Pakistani arms and it purchased small and medium
conventional weapons. General Raheel Sharif former Chief of Pakistan army is
the chief of 41-nation Islamic Military Alliance to combat terrorism. The
Islamic Military Alliance was constituted on behest of Saudi Arabia.
However, it is important to analyse why
Qureshi made this statement. He is an experienced politician and the statement
cannot be a slip of tongue. Pakistan watchers claim that Islamabad was trying
to convene a special session of OIC on Kashmir, but Saudi Arabia and UAE have
not summoned the OIC session and they issued trifling statements on Kashmir.
Saudi Arabia also prevented the mention of Kashmir in Mecca Declaration of OIC.
Hence Islamabad took a chance if Riyadh is pressurised because of Qureshi’s
statement and convenes the special session of OIC it is fine but if Riyadh
reacts adversely then Islamabad can put all blame on Qureshi.
Courtesy :
Gulf News
Few members of OIC especially Iran,
Turkey and Malaysia feel that OIC is completely dominated by Saudi Arabia and
UAE and they have no say in the organisation. Hence, they wanted to create a
new group. Iran and Turkey have strained relations with Saudi Arabia. It
appears that Pakistan is also unhappy with OIC and wanted to follow Iran and
Turkey. In December 2019 leaders of few Muslim countries met at Kuala Lumpur
and discussed about several issues faced by Muslim countries including
Islamophobia and poverty. Although the assembled leaders made it clear that
they have no intention to compete with OIC, but it was a clear challenge to the
leadership of Saudi Arabia. Initially Malaysia, Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan and
Indonesia pioneered the summit, but later Pakistan and Indonesia did not attend
the summit because of Saudi pressure. Kashmir issue was highlighted in the
summit hence Pakistan may be inclined to change its allegiance.
Imran government is also upset with
Saudi Arabia because of developing closeness between Riyadh and New Delhi.
Besides economic relations Saudis have deported few terrorists to India which
is also not liked by Pakistan as it aids and abets terrorists. Pakistan is
emboldened because of financial assistance it is getting from Beijing may be
under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Courtesy :
Sirf News
It is also speculated that Qureshi
might be thinking to replace Imran Khan as the latter failed to resolve
Pakistan’s problems and the relations between civilian government and military
is becoming tense and General Bajwa may replace Imran Khan.
Pakistan which is dependent on Saudi
Arabia’s largesse may surrender again to Saudis wishes but it may be a good
opportunity for India to inculcate close relationship with Saudi Arabia as well
as with UAE. At present India needs investments for the overall economic
progress of the country while Saudi Arabia has surplus Petro dollars and may
like to invest in India. Hence it may be a win-win situation for
both.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services
Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in
the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
May 12
2020
SOUTH ASIA MONITOR
May 01
2020
Aviation & Defence Universe
Pakistan’s Lobbying Failed: Remains In FATF’s ‘Grey List’
- But still did not come into the black list
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Pakistani Prime Minister
Imran Khan (L) hold a joint press conference at the Presidential Complex in
Ankara, on January 4, 2019. (Photo by ADEM ALTAN / AFP)Malaysia’s Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad (L) listens to his Pakistani
counterpart Imran Khan during a welcoming ceremony at the prime minister’s
office in Putrajaya on November 21, 2018. (Photo by Mohd RASFAN / AFP)SOUTH ASIA MONITOR
JAN 8
2020
By Jai Kumar Verma JAN 8, 2020
On January 3, a mob of more than 400
extremists attacked Nankana Sahib Gurdwara, a Sikh shrine barely 62 kms from
Lahore, in Pakistan’s Punjab province. The crowd was reportedly led by Mohammed
Imran Attari, the brother of Mohammed Hassan who had kidnapped and forcibly
converted a Sikh girl named Jagjit Kaur, daughter of the gurudwara’s priest.
The demonstrators shouted anti-Sikh and anti-Hindu slogans. The protestors were
threatening to kill all Sikhs and change the name of Nankana Sahib to
Ghulam-e-Mustafa. Many Sikh and Hindu devotees were stranded in the gurudwara
when the fundamentalist mob began throwing stones at it. Gurdwara Nankana
Sahib is a deeply revered shrine, built at the site of the birthplace of Guru
Nanak, the founder of the Sikh faith.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan & Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan: The strong handshake
Unfaltering Turkish support for the Kashmiris reiterated at a seminar in Ankara earlier this year
Prime Minister Imran Khan & President Xi Jinping : All weather allies
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Civil-Military relations in Turkey and Pakistan similarities : Courtesy Times of Islamabad
OCT 21
2019
By Jai Kumar
Verma SEP 19, 2019
India’s Defence Minister Rajnath
Singh has urged Pakistan to not assist terrorists as it is in danger of
breaking into pieces. Singh was speaking at a felicitation ceremony in Surat
for the families of 122 soldiers who were killed in the line of duty. Singh
also said that Pakistan has not been able to reconcile to India’s decision to
take away Jammu & Kashmir's 'special status'. Neither has it reconciled to
the economic and scientific progress made by India. The Pakistan army and
civilian government have been plunged into a dilemma since August 5 when India
took the bold decision to revoke Article 370 and abrogate Article 35A of the
Indian Constitution.Aviation & Defence Universe
AGNI
STUDIES iN iNTERNATIONAL sTRATEGIC
iSSUES
FORUM FOR STRATEGIC & SECURITY
STUDIES
Aviation & Defence Universe
Khan
Blames India For The DebacleThe balle
balle finished too soon for Imran’s PakistanPicture Courtesy: Daily Express
Aviation & Defence Universe
Courtesy
dw.comJUL 27
2019
Raveesh Kumar, spokesperson for India's Ministry of External Affairs,
commenting on the latest video issued by al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri,
rightly stated on July 11 that Indian security forces are capable of
safeguarding the country;s sovereignty and territorial integrity against any
attack. He also stated that India had received such threats in the past and
those threats were successfully countered; hence there was no need to take
these threats seriously. The al Qaeda, he said, is a terrorist organisation
proscribed by the United Nations and its leaders are designated as terrorists
by the UN.2019
The main causes of the Kashmir problem stem from the past. They include
preventing Indian forces from completely evicting Pakistani invaders from
Kashmir, referring Kashmir to the United Nations, agreeing to a plebiscite and
the promulgation of Articles 370 and 35A of the Constitution of India. Kashmir
could not be integrated into India because of Article 370 and its offshoot,
Article 35A. A sinister provision was included in Article 370 which mentioned
that any change in the article was feasible only after concurrence of the Jammu
& Kashmir assembly.Pakistan’s tryst with terror: Will a leopard change its spots?
By J K Verma JUL
2, 2019
A plenary meeting of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global
money laundering and terror financing watchdog, was held at Orlando, Florida,
from June 16-21, 2019. The FATF, meeting reviewed the compliance of the
anti-money laundering and counter financing of terrorism (collectively referred
to as AML/CFT) regimes of some countries, including Pakistan. The Prime
Minister Narendra Modi with the HOS/HOGs of SCO Member States at the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, in Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic on June 14,
2019.A wave for
solidarity of SCOPM Modi
shakes hands with the President of Kyrgyz Republic Sooronbay JeenbekovNarendra
Modi meeting Dr. Ashraf GhaniPeace in subcontinent depends on Afghanistan
Modi shakes
hands with Xi Jinping‘Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai’
All
weather friend Russia : Modi & Putin in a tight claspAviation & Defence Universe
Till when will Pakistan protect him?Imran Removed Finance Minister: Under Pressure From Deep State
Courtesy: Naya DaurAviation & Defence Universe
Courtesy : The Dawn
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