Neighbourhood First Policy- Maldives

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/maldives-president-muizzu-in-delhi-despite-anti-india-rhetoric/# Maldives’ President Muizzu in Delhi Despite Anti-India Rhetoric PM meets President of Maldives, Dr. Mohamed Muizzu • From “India Out” to Economic & maritime security partnership • Balancing the India-China act By Jai Kumar Verma The Author New Delhi. October 2024. President Mohamed Muizzu of the Maldives, who came to power in 2023 with strong anti-India rhetoric, recently visited India in a significant step to rebuild strained ties between the two nations. Muizzu, known for leading the ‘India Out’ campaign and calling for the removal of Indian military personnel from the Maldives, arrived in Delhi on a five-day visit on October 6, 2024. During his meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the two leaders focused on enhancing economic, defense, and maritime cooperation, agreeing to transform their bilateral relations into a ‘Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership.’ Despite his earlier stance, Muizzu now seeks Indian support as the Maldives grapples with economic challenges and seeks to balance its ties with both India and China. The President of India, Mrs Droupadi Murmu meets the President of Maldives As both countries wanted to reinforce defence and security cooperation, India also agreed to refit and overhaul the Coast Guard vessel which was gifted by India a few years back. The two nations also agreed to start negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement and signed five agreements including currency swap agreement, law enforcement training, training of judicial officers, prevention of corruption, sports and youth affairs. Rupay card was launched in Maldives, a new runway was inaugurated at the Hanimaadhoo International Airport. India also handed over 700 social housing units in Maldives. Muizzu in a reverse turn, now appealed to Indian tourists to visit the island nation. Muizzu after the talks also invited Modi to visit Maldives next year to celebrate 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties between both the countries and reaffirmed that the ties between the two nations are centuries old, as evident throughout their histories. Recently when the two leaders met, a vision document which contained different areas including political, defence, developmental cooperation, bilateral investments, establishment of educational institutions for higher studies, cooperation in health sector etc. was released. It was also decided that the implementation and progress of vision document would be monitored by a new High-Level Core Group, the members of which would be decided by both the countries. The members of Parliament and local bodies would also visit each other’s country. A Memorandum of Understanding was signed so that the cooperation between parliaments of both the countries is institutionalised. The Vice President of India, Mr. Jagdeep Dhankhar called on President of Maldives Both the countries decided to extend the developmental cooperation on diverse fields including housing, hospitals, educational institutions, airports, ports, road networks, sports complexes and establishments of water and sewerage plants. Both countries decided to extend cooperation on trade and economic cooperation which included to commence discussion on Bilateral Free Trade Agreement, settle bilateral trade transactions in local currencies, efforts would be made to improve ease of doing business and to develop and share digital and financial services. It was decided to provide affordable healthcare to the people of both the countries, there should be linkage between people of Maldives and Indian hospitals, efforts would be made to improve the basic health services in Maldives including emergency medical evacuations in the atoll. Both countries also agreed for capacity building and training. It was decided that training for Maldivian civil servants and local government representatives would continue. It was also decided to launch programmes and train females so that Maldivian women participate in the development of country’s economy. Special emphasis was given to develop people to people contacts and for that higher educational institutions, skill development centres would be established in island. PM attends delegation level talks with the President of Maldives, Dr. Mohamed Muizzu at Hyderabad House. Muizzu welcomed Indian financial assistance and stated that he was thankful “for the generous assistance and cooperation extended to the Maldives over the years, including the recent budgetary support in the form of rollover of the T (treasury) bills. “I am thankful for the India government’s decision to provide support in the form of 30 billion Indian rupees, in addition to the 400 million US dollar bilateral currency swap agreement, which will be instrumental in addressing the foreign exchange issues we are facing right now. Our discussions today underscored a shared commitment to remain engaged on further measures that will bolster the Maldives’ economic resilience and stability.” He also mentioned that he looked forward to concluding the free trade agreement with India. The archipelago is in trouble as Moody, the global agency has downgraded the Maldives credit rating and mentioned that there are chances of default as foreign reserves remain below the government’s external debt service. Maldives debt service in 2025 is expected to be around $600 million and in 2026 it should be more than $1 billion. The joint statement mentioned that “India and Maldives share common challenges in the Indian Ocean Region which have multi-dimensional implications for the security and development of both the countries. As natural partners, they resolve to work together in advancing the maritime and security cooperation for the benefit of peoples of both India and Maldives as well as for the larger Indian Ocean Region.” Both countries agreed to establish Maldives consulates in Bangalore and Indian consulate in Addu city. Foreign Minister S Jaishankar attending the banquet hosted by President of India Election speeches by politicians do not mean that the policy decisions after winning over the elections remain the same, is evident from this visit. Hence India out campaign or anti-India speeches do not mean that Muizzu wanted to alienate India. Muizzu and his ministers constantly requested Indian tourists to visit Maldives, and it is the reason that he came to India on a five-day visit and also visited Agra, Bangalore and Mumbai besides Delhi. According to a Maldivian newspaper report number of Indian tourists visiting Maldives was dropped by 50,000 and it was a loss of $150 million. According to a report by 2027, India’s outbound travel market would become fifth largest in the world and Indians would be spending $89 billion on it. Hence Maldives wants that Indian tourists should continue visiting the island nation. There is a 40% decline in Chinese travel hence more and more countries are wooing Indian tourists. Bottom of Form Indian strategic planners were worried about the strengthening Chinese presence in strategically located Maldives as it would impact the regional security. The tourist dependent island nation’s estimated debt is 110% of gross domestic product. The possibility that it may fail to make payments is not ruled out and if it defaults it would be the first country to default of an Islamic bond. In August Maldives foreign reserve was $437 million which was sufficient to cover imports of one and a half months only. According to reports International Monetary Fund (IMF) also cautioned the island nation about potential debt crisis. Maldives close ally China. India needs to keep a watchful eye on this friendship. China and India are main external lenders to Maldives, which owes $530 million to China and $400 million to India. Muizzu tried not to take assistance from India by taking help from China but ultimately that policy failed, and he had to come to India for financial assistance. Now Muizzu is trying to re-balance its ties with India and China. Muizzu took several decisions with the intention to mitigate India’s influence and develop closer ties with China. In February his government allowed Chinese research ship in Maldives though India showed its displeasure as China watchers claimed that the Chinese ship was collecting data which can be later used for submarine operations. Recently Maldivian government has given transshipment port project at Gaadhoo Island, in Laamu (L.) Atoll to India. Previously the project was handed over to a Chinese company which was blacklisted. Muizzu’s five-day trip was an attempt to repair its ties with India which is not only the third largest economy in Asia but also fastest growing economy in the region. Relationship of caution However Indian policy planners must keep in mind that his policies were anti-India and pro-China he wanted not to take assistance from India, but his policy failed, and the islands’ economy faltered and when he found that the country is on the brink of default, he came to India and Delhi rescued the archipelago. Muizzu won election on anti-India plank hence Delhi should not expect much constancy from him. He adopts anti-India policies and later blames them to the will of the people. His slogan that it is a ‘Maldives First’ policy is a good diplomatic move. All countries work for the interest of their country but if you want assistance from other country you have to safeguard their interests too. President Muizzu’s visit to India marked a crucial attempt to restore bilateral relations, which had been strained due to his anti-India campaign and pro-China stance during the 2023 election. Despite his earlier opposition, Muizzu recognized the importance of India’s financial and developmental assistance as the Maldives faces a looming economic crisis. India’s willingness to support the Maldives with strategic investments and defense cooperation reflects its broader goal of maintaining regional stability in the Indian Ocean. While Muizzu’s past rhetoric raises concerns about his future policies, the visit signals a recalibration of ties between the two countries, underscoring the need for pragmatic diplomacy in a region of growing geopolitical competition. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com

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India & China both wooing Maldives

·        Geo-politics of the world geographically passes through this Indian Ocean nation.

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 25 May 2023. Affluent Indians flock the untouched beaches for luxury holidays, tourism between the two nations is a real revenue generator but very few know that Maldives is a major strategic partner both regionally and globally.  Why should a small archipelago nation which is hardly 70 nautical miles away from Minicoy Island in India’s Lakshadweep archipelago, comprising of about 1,190 coral islands formed around 26 atolls which are spread over 90,000 square kilometres, occupy  such an important geo-strategic position in world and in the Indian Ocean?

            The Author

Traditionally New Delhi has had close relations with Male, however lately China which wants to expand its sway all over the world, especially in Indian Ocean Region has started increasing its influence under the garb of constructing   infrastructure projects in Maldives.

Recently all eyes were on Maldives when Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh was in Male early this month. During his visit he along with his Maldivian counterpart inaugurated Ekatha harbour, gifted Patrol vessels and two defence platforms to Maldives. The fast patrol vessel would enhance its maritime security. The joint communique issued after his three-day visit stressed the importance of maintaining peace and tranquillity in the region. Now a days India is also emphasising on the export of defence equipment and Maldives may like to import Indian defence items.

Maldives is important for USA too because of its proximity with Diego Garcia. Maldives and USA signed a defence agreement in 2020. USA is the first country after India with which Maldives signed a defence agreement and India welcomed this development in the region. Male and Tokyo also share a warm and close relationship and former welcomed the formation of Quad and latter’s presence in it.

Warm handshake of the past

The archipelago nation is significant as it is located near Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Hormuz, and Strait of Malacca. However, President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom who remained the President of the country from 17 November 2013 to 16 November 2018 adopted an anti-India and pro-China policy. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Maldives from September 14-16, 2014. The visit was projected as a historic visit as it was the first visit of a Chinese President since diplomatic relations were established between both the countries in 1972. A 100

member Chinese business delegation was a part of this visit too.

The visiting President emphasised the need of connectivity and proposed Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) which is a part of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). President Gayoom who wanted to have close relations with China accepted the proposal as Chinese side pleaded that MSRI would enhance trade and tourism. Besides MSRI both sides agreed to develop several other important projects.

The main projects included Laamu Link Road Project which connected four islands and was approximately 15 Kilometres long. The project was over in October 2016. Hulhumale bridge project which created jobs and business opportunities to the residents of reclaimed island of Hulhumale. China also agreed to construct 1500 houses across nine coral islands. Besides these projects Beijing also agreed to construct other projects including expansion of Ibrahim Nasir international airport, Greater Male power station project etc.

China is also involved in several other projects including construction of special economic zones, developing telecommunication networks, renewable energy projects etc. Both the countries also signed free trade area in 2015. Maldives is pivotal for Indian Ocean strategy of China and also hopes to have an ally in case the South China Sea issue heats up.

Friendly but guarded calls of the present

China’s Maldivian good-will strategy is with the aim to diminish India’s influence on the archipelago nation. China considers India as its potential enemy hence it also wants to encircle India. As China has increased its influence on Maldives during the regime of Abdulla Yameen it also wanted to replace USA from the region. Beijing projected it as Male’s all-weather friend and a trusted ally than any other country including India and USA.

Nevertheless, Abdulla Yameen was defeated in 2018 elections and Ibrahim Solih became the president of the country. Solih as a true nationalist who understands the value of India as a true friend and started curbing Chinese projects. He has moved away from the Joint Ocean Observation Station situated in Makunudhoo in North Western Maldives which was built with Chinese assistance.

China understood that the present regime would not favour Beijing hence in January 2022 on the occasion of 50th anniversary of the establishment of Maldives-China diplomatic relations, State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Male and held talks with his counterpart. Both the countries have signed five important agreements including (i) Mutual Visa Exemption between both the countries (ii) Completion of China aided Micro-Grid Sea-water Desalination Project (iii) The Chinese aided projects on areas such as infrastructure, social and other areas would not be stopped. (iv) China-Maldives Friendship bridge would not be stopped. (v) Hospital assistance project would also not be disturbed.

China successfully disturbed the close relations between India and Maldives during the regime of Abduullah Yameen who remained President of the country from 2013 to 2018. Yameen, who is anti-India, favoured China in delivering infrastructure projects. India’s concern has been the rising influence of China in Sri Lanka, Maldives and other countries in the region. China which has deep pockets, aims to increase its influence rapidly, has enticed Maldives and other countries through trade agreements, investments, and giant infrastructural projects.

Smiles galore in past

India-Maldives relations always remained strong however the present Indian government strengthened its relations with Maldives under “Neighbourhood First” policy while Maldivian government pursues “India First” policy. Both countries have constituted joint working group to counter the rising menace of terrorism, extremism, and radicalisation. It was decided to have joint patrolling in sea, aerial surveillance, and exchange of intelligence. Both countries also agreed to augment their capability in the field of maritime security.

India is also trying to take part in climate change projects which are going through under the aegis of United Nations. President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih came in power in November 2018 and in 2019 India gave $1.4 billion as budgetary assistance and $ 800 million Line of Credit. This assistance was people centric as the money has to be used for water and sanitation in several islands. Delhi also granted $5.5 million for High Impact Community Development Projects and $6.9 million for development of community infrastructure, safety of environment and development of educational institutions. India also supplied Covid-19 vaccines in 2021.

India’s has multidimensional relations with Maldives and has also constructed a cricket stadium and hospital in Hulhumale, a port project in Gulhifalhu etc. India also launched water and sewerage projects in 34 islands of Maldives. India’s terms of contract are much mild and transparent in comparison to China’s terms of contract.

Relationship for the Indian Ocean Security

However anti-India lobby in Maldives which gets assistance from China and Pakistan always criticises and condemns India. They have also launched “India out” campaign as they allege that India infringes Maldives sovereignty by keeping Indian defence personnel in the archipelago nation. Nonetheless Solih government tried to convince anti India forces that India is Maldives’ reliable neighbour and a close ally.

On the other hand, Chinese loans and contracts lacks transparency and generally it is a debt trap. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and few African countries are facing repayment problems with Chinese loans. Maldivian government has a loan of $600 million of Beijing and private companies of Maldives owe loan of $900 million on the guarantee of Maldivian government.

India as a genuine friend helped former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in 1988 when there was coup attempt by mercenaries. Both countries have a defence pact under which India installed 26 radars on important Maldivian atolls. India also placed a Dhruv helicopter in the country and established a military hospital.

Naval ties rule the bilateral ties between the two Indian Ocean nations

The Presidential elections in Maldives are scheduled to be held on 9 September 2023. The present President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih who understands the importance of having cordial relations with India, would be contesting elections as a nominee of Maldivian Democratic Party. Former president Abdullah Yameen of the Progressive Party of Maldives would be the main rival. Besides him former Minister of Defence and National Security, Mohamed Nazim of the Maldives National Party and a candidate from Jumhooree Party would also contest the Presidential elections. China and Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan would extend all types of support and assistance to Yameen as he is a known China supporter and an India baiter. They would also try to arouse anti India sentiments in the country. The forthcoming elections are very crucial for India Maldives relations.  Let’s wait and watch.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the authors. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com

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Modi Reiterates India’s Neighbourhood First Policy

·        Strengthens maritime and strategic ties with Maldives & Srilanka

The Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting the leader of Jumhooree Party, Maldives, Qasim Ibrahim, in Male, Maldives on June 08, 2019.

New Delhi. 11 June 2019. India ascribes great importance to ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ is clear as the Prime Minister first visited to Maldives and Sri Lanka while the External Affairs Minster paid first visit to Bhutan. Here it will not be out of point to mention that Modi in his first tenure paid first foreign visit to Bhutan.

Leaders of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) countries attended the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Modi. The BIMSTEC countries include Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand and India. Besides BIMSTEC the leaders of Mauritius and Kyrgyzstan also attended the oath taking ceremony. India also invited Managing Director and Chairman of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde to attend the swearing-in ceremony.

Prime Minister Modi had stated that his visits to Republic of Maldives and Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka on 8 & 9 June will be the first overseas visits after the re-election. He also made it clear that his visits will strengthen the “close and cordial ties with our maritime neighbours” and it is in conformity with “Neighbourhood-First Policy’. Vijay Gokhale Foreign Secretary also stressed while briefing the media prior to Modi’s official tour that the visits accentuate India’s ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’. The press release issued by Ministry of External Affairs also confirms the significance of India’s ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’.

India consciously avoided inviting Pakistani prime minister in the oath taking ceremony. At present Pakistan is in great economic trouble and already took loan from China, Saudi Arabia and UAE but these loans were not sufficient. IMF also promised to extend $6 billion dollars in three years but with few stringent stipulations. Pakistan wants to start peaceful negotiations with India, but Delhi made it clear that talks and terrorism cannot go together hence first Pakistan must stop assisting terrorist outfits and then there can be meaningful negotiations.  

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi addressing the Majlis, the Parliament of Maldives, in Male, Maldives on June 08, 2019.

Modi visited all the South Asian countries in his first term except Maldives because the then president Abdullah Yameen had an onslaught on political parties, and he was rendering excessive favours to China and was blatantly working against the interests of India. Nonetheless Modi attended the swearing-in-ceremony of President Ibrahim Mohammed Solih in November 2018.    

Besides meeting President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, Modi also addressed the Parliament of the Maldives. Both Modi and Solih inaugurated two defence related projects including a coastal surveillance radar system and composite training centre for Maldives National Defence Forces (MNDF). Both the countries also signed six agreements related to defence and health. India and Maldives also signed the agreements pertaining to establishment of passenger and cargo ferries.

Narendra Modi meeting the Foreign Minister of Maldives, Abdulla Shahid, in Male, Maldives on June 08, 2019.

Maldives also conferred the highest honour ‘Rule of Nishan Izzuddeen’ to Modi. It is the highest honour accorded to foreign dignitaries. It is the ninth international honour awarded to Prime Minister Modi. Before it Modi also received Order of St Andrew the Apostle, the highest order of the Russian Federation on 12 April 2019, United Arab Emirates honoured him by giving Zayed Medal on 4^th April 2019. He was also conferred with Philip Kotler Presidential Award, Seoul Peace Prize 2018, UN Champions of the Earth Award 2018, ‘Grand Collar of the State of Palestine, Amir Abdulla Khan Award of Afghanistan and King Abdullaziz Sash Award of Saudi Arabia. All these honours are clear indication that Modi has taken the country much ahead in the international arena. These awards enhance the country’s honour.

S. Jaishankar the External Affairs Minister who retired as Foreign Secretary of the country rightly stated that India is the largest country in South Asia hence it must extend assistance to other South Asian countries without expecting complete reciprocity with them. However, no country afford to bestow assistance without any gain and India cannot be an exception.

Modi’s visit to Maldives gave a threefold message that both the countries will continue with high level visits, will assist each other in developmental projects and the people to people contact will be reinforced.

Though Modi visited Sri Lanka on 9^th June for few hours but gave a compelling message of solidarity. The visit was after the Easter Sunday bombings of 21st April 2019 in which the suicide bombers attacked three churches and three luxury hotels. In these terrorist attacks more than 258 persons including 45 foreigners were killed and approximately 500 persons were injured. Although Islamic State (IS) took the responsibility of these atrocious attacks but Sri Lankan authorities claimed that National Thowheeth Jamaath and Jammiyathul Millathu Ibrahim, two Islamic terrorist outfits carried out these suicide bombings. Sri Lankan security forces also mentioned that these attacks were in retaliation of the attacks on two mosques in New Zealand in which approximately 50 Muslims were killed. After the suicide attacks communal violence spread between Muslims and Christians while the tension between Muslims and Buddhists also gripped the island nation.

Prime Minister Modi was the first international leader to visit Sri Lanka after these dastardly attacks. Both sides agreed that terrorism is a “joint threat” hence it must be faced together. India made commitment to be with Sri Lanka “for a shared, secure and prosperous future”. Modi also visited St. Anthony’s church where the terrorists attacked on Easter Sunday.

The visit is important as China is increasing its investment in Sri Lanka and already occupied the Hambantota Port also known as the Magampura Mahinda Rajapaksa Port on 99 years lease. Besides meeting President and Prime Minister Modi also met with leader of opposition Mahinda Rajapaksa.

The present scenario is in favour of India. The former Maldivian President Yameen was totally pro-China and anti-India. Yameen disregarded the protest made by India before signing a free trade agreement with China. He also gave land to Beijing for development.

Same way the previous Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa also gave several infrastructure projects to Chinese companies and took heavy loan from Chinese corporations. India became extremely concerned on the increasing Chinese naval presence in Sri Lanka and Maldives. Now pro-China leaders of both the countries were defeated in the elections. The present regimes understand that China is an expansionist country while India is not only a democratic nation but a dependable ally hence India’s relations with all the neighbouring countries are strengthening. China is also facing some trouble because of US-China trade war.

The ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ is also important for “SAGAR Doctrine” which means “Security and Growth for All in the Region” propounded by Modi in 2015 with the object to keep the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) ‘peaceful and secure’. However, the analysts claim that SAGAR doctrine is to restrain the Chinese naval presence in the IOR. India has to be careful about the growing clout and power of China in South Asia region. Although China itself is very powerful but it has full support of nuclear armed Pakistan. Therefore, India cannot sit idle and watch the increasing strength of China and its forceful presence in Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh. India is getting support from United States and Japan as these countries are also realising the enhancing hegemonic threat of China. At present countering China in IOR is significant part of Indian foreign policy, although there is no threat at this juncture, but India has to remain cautious as China is an expansionist country. However, it will be a stupendous task for India to counter China with its limited resources as the dragon has deep pockets and already invested lot of money in the countries of this region. Not only this US and Japan which at present are standing with India have dynamic relations with China hence India should be careful as it is not certain when they will retrace back.

Tamil National Alliance delegation led by Mr. R. Sampanthan calling on the Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, in Colombo, Sri Lanka on June 09, 2019.

India should also try to have cordial relations with China although dragon considers India as its potential adversary but will certainly not like to have another war. Foreign Minister has rightly mentioned that India’s cooperation with other countries is neither against any other country nor it is with an ulterior motive. Modi’s meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping in China’s Wuhan city on April 27 & 28 to improve bilateral relations was very significant. Both Indian Prime Minister and Chinese President would meet again on the side lines of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit scheduled to be held at Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan on 13^th and 14^th June. India should be friendly with all countries especially with China as it is necessary for the all-round progress of the region. 

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)