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What does India’s abstinence from UN voting against Russia signify?

UNGA

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 10 March 2022. Since the War between Russia and Ukraine started on 24^th, there are no other headlines in India. Everything including elections have taken a back seat in the media. But one news has caught not only domestic but international eyeballs And this is the abstinence of India from the United Nations voting on the war. It needs to be understood. An old reliable friend on one hand and the rest of the world with lot of friends on the other. And the question is – has India balanced itself well or caught the wrath of the world? 

The Author

India China and United Arab Emirates abstained from voting in the emergency session of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held on 26 February which was convened on the Russian action on Ukraine. India’s permanent representative to the UNO T.S. Tirmurti stated that India demands “immediate cessation of violence and hostilities.” Again, on 2 March India, abstained from voting on the resolution passed by United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). The resolution sturdily admonished Russia for aggression on Ukraine and urged that Russia should immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine. 141 countries voted in favour and five countries voted against the resolution while 35 countries absented from the voting.

Although General Assembly resolutions are not binding but there is political impact of the resolutions. Tirumurti also mentioned that “Keeping in view the totality of the evolving situation, India has decided to abstain.” India also abstained from voting in 2014 on the UNGA resolution against Russia when it annexed Crimea. In fact, it is the fourth time India abstained from voting in different UN bodies resolutions after Russia entered Ukraine. 

 

Friends Indeed

India has cordial relations with Russia and in past Moscow extended different types of assistance to India. Hence by absenting India safeguarded its national interest and it is a pragmatic approach. Although few analysts mentioned that India should have taken a principled stand and should have voted in favour of the resolution, as a powerful country invaded its weak democratic neighbour, but these are only murmurs. Since its inception the five permanent members of UNO are blocking the increase of the number of permanent members as it is in their national interest hence by abstaining India also worked in its national interest.

Moscow is India’s leading supplier of armaments since the cold war era. And we don’t need Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) to tell us that Russia is the most important arms supplier to India and almost two-thirds of India’s imports are from Russia. At present about seventy percent of defence forces equipment are of Russian origin. India and Russia signed “India-Russia Strategic Partnership” in October 2000. India’s ‘Main Battle Tank’(MBT) consists of Russian T-72 M1 and T-90S tanks. Indian navy’s aircraft carrier, several frigates, nuclear submarine, and several other defence equipment are of Russian origin. Large number of Indian fighter jets are of Russian origin. Besides weapons Russia also provides technology to India which most of the countries avoid giving to India.  

Russia always been on India’s side in Kashmir dispute. Moscow also supported Indian government’s policies in Kashmir. Hence the government decided to support Russia although there was immense pressure from United States and European countries to vote in favour of resolution.

India also needs diplomatic assistance from Moscow while handling expansionist China. There have been border disputes, both countries clashed and there were standoffs in last two years. China has developed infrastructure in border areas and amassed artillery guns, tanks, and troops on the borders. China has not only occupied large area of India but also claims Arunachal Pradesh. India, Japan, Australia, and U.S. constituted QUAD to counter China and expects that U.S. and other members of QUAD may come for India’s assistance in case of conflict with China.

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla rightly mentioned that ,”In the UN, we take positions that are based on certain very careful considerations and certainly we do regard the merits of each and every case,”. He also said that “We will consider them in their entirety and take decisions in our best interests”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also visited India in December 2021 and India purchased weapons worth $5 billion including S-400 advanced missile defence system. Indian government is also trying to evacuate its students stranded in Ukraine and Russian forces are helping in their withdrawal.

The Russian point of view is that the western nations should not have placed armed forces in Estonia and Latvia, should not have allured Ukraine to become member of NATO and Ukraine could have just agreed to not joining NATO and remain independent. Putin realised that once Ukraine becomes NATO member, NATO forces would be at Russia’s doorstep and it would be a security risk to the country. Russia has no natural borders. In past Napoleon, Hitler and Genghis Khan and others invaded Russia through grasslands and open fields. NATO forces would setup bases in Ukraine and the distance between Kyiv to Moscow is merely 860 KMs.    

Russia-China Proximity

India’s position is precarious as the closeness between Russia and China is increasing. China blamed West for compelling Russia to invade Ukraine. China has also clearly mentioned that it won’t join in sanctions on Russia. Guo Shuping, Chairman of the China Banking, and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated in a press conference that “As far as financial sanctions are concerned, we do not approve of these.” He also mentioned that “We will not participate in such sanctions. We will continue to maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with relevant parties.”  Last year the total trade between Russia and China enhanced to $146.9 billion. Russia is mainly supplying oil, gas, coal, and agriculture products to China. In 1950s the Soviet Union and Communist China were close friends however the border disputes cropped up in 1969. Now again both are becoming close allies because of sanctions and other restrictions from the West. The chances that as Russia invaded Ukraine China may also try to occupy Taiwan although there are few differences between Taiwan and Ukraine but in view of aggressiveness of China the possibility cannot be ruled out. At present Russia is developing closeness with China but it may not go very far as Putin would not like to work as a junior partner to Chinese President Xi Jinping. The sanctions imposed by West on Moscow might dampen Russian economy. U.S. and European Union are prohibited to deal with Russian Central bank. The Rouble fell about 30% to dollar and at present it is 0.0081 to U.S. dollar.

On the other hand, the ties between India and U.S. are strengthening because of aggressive behaviour and emerging threat from China. As Russia and China are becoming allies India has to look towards West. Russian invasion in Ukraine is creating a cold war situation where U.S. and European countries are on one side while China and Russia would be on another side.  India has to choose its position in the new emerging world order. It may be difficult to remain neutral as hostile China is at our neighbourhood.

The Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu said that it would be difficult for India to purchase Russian weapons after latest sanctions imposed by U.S. due to Russian aggression on Ukraine. Nevertheless U.S. has not taken any decision to impose sanctions on India and it was left on President Biden to decide whether to impose sanctions on India under Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) or waive the sanctions.  Nonetheless India has to play its cards very carefully.

It is expected that after Ukraine war the world would become multi polar instead of unipolar and  U.S., Russia, China, India, and Germany would emerge as important players. Hence first of all India has to strengthen itself militarily as well as economically and then maintain a balance between it’s relationship with US led western block and Moscow.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 

 

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China’s expansionism & intimidation leads to alliances

China’s South China Sea Claims
Courtesy : news.antiwar.com

The QUAD

Xi’ Jing Ping’s expansionist drive

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 30 January 2022. China is expansionist and it enhances its influence through culture, negotiation, defence agreements, financial assistance or on the name of development of infrastructure. In recent past Beijing has adopted a very aggressive foreign policy.

The Author

It hit out Australia as it questioned about the origin and handling of COVID-19 pandemic, increased patrols and other activities near Japanese controlled Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands to which China claims as its territory. Beijing constantly sent fighter aircraft near Taiwan, took stringent measures in Hong-Kong, imposed National Security law and imprisoned large number of pro-democracy supporters.

Beijing strengthened its presence in South China Sea and threatened United Kingdom for dire consequences for its decision to ban Chinese telecom giant Huawei from its 5G telecom network. China released two Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig only after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was released.

Beijing claims that it settled its borders with 12 out of 14 neighbours, while most of its neighbours feel that the settlements are unfair and China used its financial as well as military might in dictating the terms. China is also threatening India and Bhutan and is trying to snatch their territorial areas. There are news that China has again started construction of buildings in disputed territory on China Bhutan border. The new construction would give China better control of the area. The construction also indicates that China does not believe in amicable settlement of border dispute. 

China has developed close relations with Pakistan as both feel enmity with India albeit for different reasons. Beijing considers India as its potential adversary while Pakistan since its inception is against India. The animosity of Islamabad enhanced manifold after its division i.e., creation of Bangladesh. China has recently passed “Land Boundary Law” which converted the territory disagreement into a sovereign dispute, which restricts any settlement on the basis of give and take.

In better times a joint exercise

When China attacked India, it was not expecting that Delhi would take such a stern step. Indian forces fought valiantly at Doklam and Galwan areas and killed more Chinese soldiers than Indian soldiers martyred. India also attacked Chinese business interests and banned 59 Chinese apps. India is also trying to lessen import from China. Both countries had 14 rounds of negotiations but without any tangible result. China mentioned that border skirmishes should not effect commercial dealings but India has not accepted it.

The Chinese were not prepared for war, they wanted to humiliate India and change the LAC at some strategic locations. But China had to retreat because of tough stand taken by India. In the press conference ahead of Army Day, Indian army Chief General MM Naravane emphatically mentioned that the army would continue its operational preparedness as the threat is not reduced. He was right as India has to safeguard its borders as matter is not resolved and China is an unpredictable neighbour.

President Xi Jinping has changed Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policy as Deng believed that “hide your strength, bide your time.” Now China has become very assertive and show its strength blatantly. Xi Jinping has adopted a belligerent foreign policy because he wants to divert the attention from internal troubles.

Courtesy : Sue Harden PLA Special Forces

The Corona Virus has declined Chinese economy, the trade war with United States is also harming the business interests of Beijing. The CCP’s main priority is stability in the country as it spends more on internal security than on defence. According to a rough estimate about one million officials including some Politburo and Central Committee Members were embattled under anti-corruption drive. Xi’s military reforms have enhanced his control over Peoples Liberation Army (PLA).

However, the internal resentment is going on in intellectuals. There are reports that a ‘rectification campaign’ in police and security forces was launched which indicates that some resentment is still continuing. Muslims especially Uighur Muslims, Tibetans create disturbances. Islamic State is trying to strengthen itself in Afghanistan which would certainly assist Muslim’s secessionist activities in China. Although Taliban promised that they would not assist Uighur Muslims but they cannot be trusted completely.

The aggressive foreign policy of China has created anti-Chinese sentiments in the world and different countries have constituted alliances and signed agreements to counter China. Following are the main alliances and pacts constituted to face Chinese threat

File Pic

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007 visualised about Quad but at that time it could not be constituted as China was less assertive and the countries avoided confrontation with China. Nonetheless in 2017 four countries including India, Japan, United States and Australia agreed to constitute QUAD. First the leaders of all four countries met virtually and then in September the summit was held. The joint statement mentioned that “Together, we recommit to promoting the free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and undaunted by coercion, to bolster security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. We stand for the rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, democratic values, and territorial integrity of states.” China became very angry on the formation of Quad as it understood that it is against it.

AUKUS

On 15 September 2021 United States, United Kingdom and Australia constituted an alliance in the Asia-Pacific and named it as AUKUS. Under the alliance U.S. and U.K. would provide Australia technology and capability pertaining to nuclear-powered submarines. The joint statement of all three countries mentioned that “This is a historic opportunity for the three nations, with like-minded allies and partners, to protect shared values and promote security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.”    

Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC)

On 4 June 2020 senior law makers of eight democracies including U.S., constituted IPAC to counter China. The alliance has representatives of world’s major political parties. The IPAC claims that it desires to “construct appropriate and coordinated responses, and to help craft a proactive and strategic approach on issues related to the People’s Republic of China.”

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

On 4 February President Barack Obama constituted an alliance with several countries to counter China. Nonetheless U.S. withdrawn from alliance during Presidentship of Trump and now China would be joining the alliance which was constituted to counter it.

Five Eyes alliance (FEA)

Five Eyes Alliance was constituted, by five countries including U.S., U.K., Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, during cold war era to collect intelligence and keep an eye on the then USSR. But now the alliance keep eye on China and share intelligence. It has already criticised China for human right violations of Uyghur Muslims, Chinese aggressive activities in South China Sea, and repression in Hong Kong and continuous threatening of Taiwan.

Japan and Australia also signed defence pact in first week of January 2022 through a virtual summit. The pact which would facilitate the future cooperation between both the countries is clearly against the aggressive China.

Japan and U.S. agreed for five years extension for retention of 50,000 U.S. troops in Japan. The root cause of extension is threat from China and North Korea.   

False vibes

China is also challenging the lone super power status of U.S. Western democracy, their prosperity and security, therefore U.S. along with its traditional allies are trying to curb the economic relations with China.  

U.S., Japan, and European countries are trying to distance themselves economically from China. U.S. and few European countries have put restrictions on China because of its human rights violations of Uighur Muslims. Japan government is giving incentives to its companies for returning back to Japan. Australia, India, and other countries are also tightening foreign investment regulations so that Chinese companies do not take over the indigenous companies and also putting restrictions on import of Chinese goods.

Chinese government propagate their scientific achievements, defence capabilities, electronic gadgets, economic achievements to dissuade the world and to appease Chinese people. Recently China has asserted that they have deployed robotic soldiers on LAC but in reality, no robotic soldiers were seen. It appears that Chinese soldiers are facing lot of difficulties at LAC because of inclement weather. Hence Chinese hierarchy is giving consolation to the army and also disseminating to the world about their scientific achievements. But Xi Jinping does not want war as Chinese army has not fought war from last several years and its experience in Vietnam, was very distressing. On 4 January, Xi Jinping signed the training programme of PLA which was printed very prominently in the PLA Daily.

World gets together to combat this force
Courtesy : scmp.com

China should stop human right violations in the country. Recently 20 million people are locked down in China in multiple cities to curb spread of Corona virus just to save winter Olympics scheduled to commence from 4 February. It is good that several countries of the world signed agreements and pacts to defend themselves from Chinese threat but it is not enough. U.S. navy should include smaller ships, drones, and other equipment near China so that quick action can be taken against it. On one hand defence forces of Taiwan must be strengthened and on the other hand U.S. should keep its forces ready so that urgent action can be taken if China tries to attack Taiwan. India should also augment its defence and keep its forces ready for two sides war.  

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 

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India-China War: A Remote Possibility

·        Tensions on LAC to continue

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. October 2021. The relations between India and China have deteriorated considerably in last few months. The armies of both nuclear powers are facing each other on Line of Actual Control (LAC). The disputed Indo-China border, is about 3,488 kilometres long, is full of rivers, lakes, and mountains. The border is not only disputed but vague hence several times inadvertently the armies of both countries confront each other.

In past China developed infrastructure on the border and India neither objected it firmly nor built infrastructure on its side. However, for the last few years India has started constructing roads, bridges etc. on the borders which was objected by China, as it challenged China’s leading military and infrastructural domination on Indo-China borders. The Border Roads Organization (BRO) finished the construction of 61 roads totalling about 3,346 K.Ms. China is also worried as India constructed a road in Galwan valley and Delhi may try to recapture Aksai Chin which legally belongs to India.

Meanwhile the recently held 13th round of corps commander level talks between both the countries held at Chinese side of the Moldo-Chushul border, failed to reach an agreement. The Chinese government’s mouthpiece Global Times wrote a hard-hitting article in which it fully blamed India for the failed negotiations. It alleged that India made “unreasonable and unrealistic demands” in the negotiations.  Chinese analysts falsely blamed that India is building tensions at new places in the eastern section of the Indo-China border. China not only blamed and threatened India but also claimed that China is trying to diffuse the tensions on the border. The paper mentions that India’s demand of returning the troops of pre-April 2020 places is unreasonable. In fact, expansionist Chinese strategy is that it attacks and captures Indian territory and afterwards returns some portion but retains most of the area. Now the government is not allowing them to capture new areas but negotiating that Chinese should return the areas already occupied illegally by them.

Chinese analysts claimed that Indian economy is passing from a difficult phase but it mustered courage to challenge China because it feels that the relations between China and United States have worsened and U.S. would assist India against China. Lin Minwang, professor with the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University also mentioned that India feels that U.S. confers much importance to New Delhi and President Biden also discussed with India the plans to impede China.

As the commanders level discussions between India and China could not end the 17-month standoff at the borders because of expansionist designs of China, now both the countries would have to retain their troops in perilously freezing temperatures. Temperatures in some areas in Ladakh drop to 30 below zero Celsius. Before May 2020 the troops were returning to summer holdings in winter but now because of standoff the troops of both countries have to stay in the inhospitable climate along with their weaponry. Our defence ministry issued a statement in which it mentioned that China was not “agreeable” on India’s “constructive” suggestions.

Although the situation is tense on Indo-China border and the possibility of few more clashes cannot be ruled out but the chances of an all-out war is remote. The important reasons include that in 1979 China fought a war with Vietnam in which PLA suffered much more casualties than Vietnam which is a smaller country. Chinese army has not fought war from last forty years and lacks the practical experience of the war. On the other hand, Indian army is battle-hardened army which fought more than three wars with Pakistan and deeply involved in fight against terrorism in Kashmir and North East India. The defence experts claim that the performance and weapons handling of PLA contingents on United Nations peacekeeping force in Africa was not up to the mark.

Secondly India China dispute is purely a border issue and not an ideological issue. India has no problem with communist regime in China while China is also not against Indian democracy. The LAC between both the countries is vague and confusing which results in the battles.

Chinese weapons are manufactured by stealing the technology from U.S., Europe and Russia and are not technologically very advanced. On the other hand, Indian armaments legally purchased are of advance technology. Recently Pakistan army has also complained about the sub-standard Chinese weapons.

China considers U.S. as its main enemy and it would not like to fight nuclear India as it would damage both the countries and President Xi Jinping’s dream of surpassing U.S. would be hampered. Hence war with India would be a distraction.

The economy of China also got a jolt first because of Corona Virus and then flood devastated several cities of the country. Several countries blame China for the spread of Corona virus. The democratic countries are also against Chinese aggressive behaviour, expansionist designs, and blatant human right violations. Several countries where China invested money under Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are unable to pay the debt and are demanding tax relief. It is not feasible for China to give debt relief to all, hence these countries are unhappy. Few countries are also realising that Chinese companies adopt unfair means in procuring the contracts. Recently Pakistan has banned a Chinese company because of adopting malpractices.

Although the Quad countries have close economic relations with China but all have some issues with China. U.S. considers China as its potential adversary as it is threatening its sole super power status. Japan which is the third biggest economy in the world resent the expansionist designs of PLA. Both claim Senkaku islands in East China Sea. There is mutual hatred, dislike, and hostility between the public of China and Japan.  

Australia also feels threatened because of speedy military modernisation and aggressive Chinese foreign policy. China started interfering in Australian political process hence it had to ban foreign political donations in 2017. Australia not only banned Huawei Chinese technological company but also asked for the enquiry about the origin of the coronavirus. China became very upset when Australia joined Quad. China has also put restrictions or raised duty on import of several Australian products including beef, barley, wine, sugar, coal, lobster etc.

India China has border disputes and China is not only illegally capturing Indian territory but also claiming much more. There are battles and standoffs at the borders. India is also restricting import of Chinese goods.

India and China have signed five agreements in 1993, 1996, 2005, 2012 and 2013. Mostly the disputes can be resolved through the negotiations under these agreements. Both sides are determined to settle the issues amicably hence much publicity is not given in the media.

 

Last but not the least the limited war would also be an economic disaster for both the countries while the gain would be minimal. China knows that India would fight back the aggression with full force and the Quad countries may not support overtly but certainly render material support to India.

India is also trying to lessen its trade deficit with China by emphasising ‘Make in India’ programme. India is developing infrastructure at China border so that the heavy machinery can also be sent at the borders. India also raised XVII Corps which is the first mountain strike Corps of India basically to face China.  

Hence both countries should adopt a pragmatic view and should avoid standoffs and battles. China wants that border dispute and business should go together as India is a big market. But India should make sincere efforts to lessen the trade deficit with China. Both countries should employ more confidence building measures.

India should also be careful that it should not become tool in the hands of U.S. which wants to hamper the growth of China and would like to involve Beijing in a war with India or Taiwan. The world has seen that U.S. has abandoned battle-ravaged Afghanistan. The present position of India is perfect that we are defending our territory and trying to recover our lost areas through negotiations but not adopting any aggressive designs.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 

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Is China trying to convert Sri Lanka into Its overseas colony?

Columbo Port

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 28 May 2021. The contentious Port City Bill was passed by Sri Lankan Parliament on 20th May 2021. The bill cleared the first Special Economic Zone (SEZ) which consists of 269 hectares of reclaimed land which is contiguous to Colombo, the capital of the country. The SEZ which will be powered by renewable energy, will have mostly services-intensive industries. It is part of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is a global infrastructure development strategy of Chinese President Xi Jinping and was initiated in 2013. 

The enactment mentions that Mahinda Rajapaksa the Prime Minister would constitute a special commission which will administer the SEZ. The commission will be empowered to sanction licenses, registrations and to start any type of business in SEZ permission from the commission will be required. The commission would also fix the custom duty, value-added tax (VAT) or any other type of taxation or its exemption. It will also decide about opening of gambling places and casinos. In reality the commission will be empowered to take all decisions about the SEZ. Chinese would be getting concessions which were not given even to Sri Lankan businessmen. The audit and accounts department will not be authorised to do the audit of SEZ, but audit would be done by private auditors hence parliament will have no control over the SEZ. Prime Minister will be authorised to select and dismiss the members of the commission.  

The work on Port City SEZ was started when Rajapaksa was the president of Sri Lanka. The Hambantota port, which was leased to China in July 2017 as Sri Lanka could not repay the debt given by China, is in the constituency of Mahinda Rajapaksa. All the businesses in the Colombo Port City would be transacted in recognised foreign currency.

Columbo Port City

On April 8, the Port City Bill was put forward in Parliament but there was unprecedented opposition to the bill and about 19 petitions were filed in Supreme Court against the bill. The bill which will exempt the SEZ from the local laws was severely criticised by labour unions, civil society, advocates, monks, and opposition parties particularly United National Party (UNP), the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). Anura Kumara Dissanayake an important leader of JVP declared that Sri Lanka will be reduced to a “Chinese province” because of the bill. In the Colombo Port City Sri Lankan laws will not be effective. Former Sri Lankan President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga also mentioned that Sri Lanka will become ‘colony of China’ and the people who resisted Colombo Port’s Eastern Container Terminal’s (ECT) construction by India and Japan are not hostile to Chinese Colombo Port City. 

The petitioners claimed in the supreme court that the provisions of Chinese controlled SEZ are against the Sri Lankan constitution, sovereignty, and labour laws hence it should be declared null and void. The decision of the apex court was put forward before the parliament on 25 May 2021 which declared that on several points either the bill required to be passed by a two-thirds majority or it needed referendum. It also mentioned that if requisite amendments are made in the clauses which are contrary to the constitution the bill can be passed by simple majority in parliament.

The opposition wanted three days debate in parliament, but government allowed two days debate and afterwards the bill was amended in consultation with supreme court and was passed by majority vote.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksha while defending the bill stated in the parliament that the Port City Project would generate more than 200,000 jobs in five years and most of these jobs will be given to Sri Lankans. He also claimed that the Colombo Port City would attract foreign direct investment as it will become a big financial and services centre in South Asia.

Yamuna Jayaratne Colombo Port City Director of Sales and Marketing stated that so far Sri Lanka has not exploited its geographical and locational advantages which are more than Dubai and Hong Kong which already emerged as financial services hubs.

A handshake which is shaking the region

The bill was defended by several politicians of the ruling party including Minister of Higher Education and Cultural Affairs Wijeyadasa Rajapksa, Agriculture Minister Mahindananda Aluthugame as well as by former Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal. They mentioned that Colombo Port City will be very useful for the country and it will create large number of jobs and SEZ is under the security cover of Sri Lankan police and security forces. They also claimed that several persons are criticising the project on behest of foreign powers. 

This seems to be a continuation of Hambantota Port which was taken by China on a 99-year lease for $ 1.2 billion.  China lays debt trap through massive infrastructure loan which the developing countries fail to repay. On the other hand, India because of destructive second wave of Covid-19 had to downturn its assistance to Sri Lanka. New Delhi also had to defer its ‘Vaccine-Maitri’ because of shortage of vaccines in the country. India is concerned as Port City of Colombo will become an overseas colony of China and its influence would be enhanced manifold. Beijing has increased its efforts of encircling India after it became member of ‘Quad’ and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Indian army are not only facing each other but also involved in battles in eastern Ladakh and other places.  

Sri Lanka on behest of China cancelled a trilateral deal between India Japan and Sri Lanka to develop the East Container Terminal of the Colombo Port. The present government changed the terms and conditions of the U.S. investment of $ 450 million in Sri Lanka. The present government has also annulled an agreement with Indian Oil Corporation.  Although India gave a $400-million currency swap to island nation but the talks for another $ 1 billion currency swap agreement could not be materialised.

Hambantota port

Sri Lanka watchers claim that at present because of Covid 19 pandemic the economic condition of Sri Lanka is considerably deteriorated hence President Gotabaya who has close relations with China wants to improve it through Chinese investment. President Xi Jinping wants to increase Chinese influence in the area is taking advantage of the situation.

China is also making headway in the areas of Indian dominance including rubber, tea, and coconut plantation with malafide intention of striking out India. Chinese are also constructed 40,000 houses in Jaffna district which is a Tamil dominated area. Gotabaya, also feels that in case Tamil insurgency develops again it can be suppressed with Chinese assistance.

Both countries have defence relationship also and China supplied different types of arms and ammunition to the island nation. Sri Lanka got anti-tank guided missiles, shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, rocket launchers, radars, and different types of communication equipment from China. China is not only training Sri Lankan defence personnel but also modernising its armed forces. In 2019 Sri Lankan ambassador in UN also signed a joint letter with other countries and sent it to The United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) shielding Chinese atrocities on Uyghur Muslims.

India is genuinely concerned because of increasing Chinese influence in the region. Hambantota and Colombo are less than 300 miles from India. Pakistan is under full influence of China and after the coup in Myanmar and imposition of sanctions by several countries Chinese influence has increased multiple times in the country. The present Oli government in Nepal is getting full support from China and Prime Minister Oli has already acted against Indian interests and issued several anti-India statements. Although Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has cordial relations with India, but she is also leaning towards Beijing. Recently Chinese ambassador in Bangladesh warned Dacca that it should not join US led Quad alliance as it would damage to the bilateral relations of both the countries.

Courtesy: scmp.com

In view of Chinese aggressive stratagem Indian strategist has to plan a long-term strategy although it is difficult to counter China which has deep pockets. Chinese economy is approximately five times larger than India and more or less no vibrant opposition in the country. Indian diplomatic missions in the neighbouring countries should try to convince the masses that China is an expansionist country, and it would grab their areas. The diplomatic missions in other countries should also put Indian viewpoints more forcefully. Quad is a good initiative and there are several countries including U.S., Japan, Vietnam, Australia, Germany, U.K., Canada, Sweden, Norway, and others which are under pressure because of phenomenal economic rise of China. The democratic countries also condemn China for human right violations.  India can try to be friendly with them although the help from these countries will be extremely limited. India is also concerned as China is encircling India by increasing its influence in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Tibet, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Nepal.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

 Raksha ANIRVEDA

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The New CPCEC Bill May Convert Sri Lanka into a Chinese Colony

The growing opposition to the Colombo Port City Economic Commission (CPCEC) bill brings to the centre stage the ulterior motives of China. India as well as its neighbours should be careful and alert

May 1, 2021EditorOpinion

Jai Kumar Verma

Awide array of people including civil society workers, advocates, monks, opposition political parties including United National Party (UNP), the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), trade Unions and many others have filed multiple petitions in the Supreme Court of Sri Lanka against the bill captioned as Colombo Port City Economic Commission (CPCEC). The petitioners claimed that CPCEC contravenes constitution, labour rights and is against the sovereignty of the country. The petitioners asserted that the sovereignty of the country is under threat because of the extra ordinary powers given to the commission for the construction of Colombo Port City Project.

The proposed law stipulates to create a commission which would grant registrations, licenses, and any type of approval to conduct business in the special economic zone (SEZ) which would be created by the proposed law. The commission would also decide about the custom duty, taxation or its exemption, value-added tax (VAT), or decisions about casinos, gambling etc. The CPCEC would be authorised to take all decisions pertaining to SEZ.

The petitioners claimed that the Port City Commission would be against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country. They also mentioned that the concessions Chinese will be getting under the proposed law were neither given to the Sri Lankan nor to any other foreign business persons although they are in the business from several years and had better commitment. The proposed law also provides that the private auditors would audit the accounts and the auditor general will not be authorised to audit the accounts. In this way parliament would not have any control on CPCEC. The proposed bill also authorises president to nominate as well as sack the members of the commission.

The CPCEC would take off all powers of the parliament and mentions that all investment should be in foreign currency, and the disputes would be solved through arbitration and not by the courts. The activists claim that these provisions would finish the sovereignty of the country and would reduce Sri Lanka into a Chinese colony

The petitioners demanded that the CPCEC should be passed by a two-thirds majority from parliament and also through a referendum before it becomes the law. The CPCEC would take off all powers of the parliament and mentions that all investment should be in foreign currency, and the disputes would be solved through arbitration and not by the courts. The activists claim that these provisions would finish the sovereignty of the country and would reduce Sri Lanka into a Chinese colony.

Chinese port city project which commenced in 2014 was propagated by President Mahinda Rajapaksa as an investment centre to attract the foreign capital. The three kilometres financial centre is on reclaimed sea land at Galle Face seafront in middle of Colombo city. The project was initially suspended by Rajapaksa’s successor Sirisena, but later work commenced, and it was complete in 2018. The estimated cost of the project in 2017 was USD 15 billion and is part of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The Sri Lankan people are concerned about the hefty loan given by China. In past Colombo failed to repay the debt and it had to surrender Hambantota port to China in 2017 in lieu of USD 1.2 billion for a 99-year lease. According to Sri Lankan law, all new bills have to be cleared by Supreme Court hence Jayantha Jayasuriya the Chief Justice of Supreme Court has appointed a 5-member bench to hear the petition. Chief Justice will head the bench.

After losing Hambantota, the intellectuals in Sri Lanka are becoming suspicious of Chinese intentions, hence the Chinese project – Colombo Port City (CPP) special economic zone (SEZ) is in controversy from the beginning. In Sri Lanka, the civil society is powerful and continuously work to slash the powers of executive president.

The opposition parties including Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and United National Party (UNP) though in favour of Colombo Port City project are against the proposed bill. Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa while criticising the bill stated that the bill if passed will make the country subservient to foreigners. Another SJB leader Lakshman Kiriella pointed out that if this bill is passed then 25 laws passed by the parliament will not be applicable on the SEZ which will become a safe haven for money laundering.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake leader of Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) stated that if the proposed bill passed, Sri Lanka will be reduced to a “Chinese province”. He also mentioned that local businessmen would not be allowed to function in the Port City which may become a separate region where the local laws would not be applicable. Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga former Sri Lankan President also remarked that Sri Lanka is becoming the ‘colony of China’ and stated that the people and parties who opposed the Colombo Port’s Eastern Container Terminal (ECT) with India are not opposing the present contract with China.

China and Sri Lanka have close military relationship and China sold several state-of-the-art weapons to Sri Lanka including rocket launchers, shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, anti-tank guided missiles, deep penetration bombs and rockets, mortars, security equipment, tanks, jets, naval vessels, radars, and communication equipment.

Wijeyadasa Rajapksa, Minister of Higher Education and Cultural Affairs, Agriculture Minister Mahindananda Aluthugame, former Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal and others defended the bill and mentioned that the people are criticising the bill on behest of foreign powers. Sri Lankans will get jobs in the SEZ and the local police has full jurisdiction on SEZ.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksha has close ties with China, and recently he talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping, where both leaders consented to augment bilateral ties to recover from the current pandemic. The Gotabaya government had changed the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by his predecessor with U.S. on the investment of US$ 450 million. Not only this Gotabaya also revoked East Container Terminal (ECT) agreement in which besides India Japan was also a partner. The ECT was cancelled as there were protests by labour unions and Sinhala nationalists headed by monks. Same groups and many others are now opposing CPP, but the government instead of scrapping it, is defending the same. Sri Lanka also cancelled a deal with Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) pertaining to oil storage tanks.

Even if supreme court clears it after some changes and government passes it after some amendments the government would have to convince the masses that the SEZ would provide them employment because Chinese bring people from China to complete the projects. Government scrapped U.S., India, and Japanese projects where the locals get the employment. In Hambantota only Chinese were benefitted.

Besides capturing strategic areas in the region China which considers India as its prospective adversary is also encircling India. The Baloch nationalists claim that China has already occupied Gwadar Port, would exploit the vast mineral resources of Balochistan and water resources and arable land of Gilgit and Baltistan

China is spreading its wings in the areas like tea, rubber, and coconut plantation etc. where India was dominating. Recently China Railway Beijing Engineering Group Co. Ltd got contract to build 40,000 houses in Jaffna district.

China and Sri Lanka have close military relationship and China sold several state-of-the-art weapons to Sri Lanka including rocket launchers, shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, anti-tank guided missiles, deep penetration bombs and rockets, mortars, security equipment, tanks, jets, naval vessels, radars, and communication equipment. China is also modernizing Sri Lankan armed force and training its military personnel. In July 2019 Sri Lankan ambassador in UN signed a joint letter along with 50 other nations sent to UNHRC defending the Chinese treatment of Muslims including Uyghurs.

The strategic analysts claim that China allures financially weak countries to develop massive infrastructure and for that China provides loan, men, and material to construct the infrastructure. The infrastructure is so expensive and hidden terms of loan are so stringent that these countries fail to repay the loan and then China occupies these assets. As China brings men and material from China hence these projects do not generate employment and do not improve the financial conditions of the financially weaker countries. The debt repayment became more difficult due to Covid-19 pandemic. China’s is fulfilling this strategy through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Besides capturing strategic areas in the region China which considers India as its prospective adversary is also encircling India. The Baloch nationalists claim that China has already occupied Gwadar Port, would exploit the vast mineral resources of Balochistan and water resources and arable land of Gilgit and Baltistan. The analysts claim that Beijing would exploit Pakistan through China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Pakistan cannot resist because of its feeble financial condition. The influence of China is constantly increasing in Nepal and pro-China elements are spreading anti-India sentiments. Hence India as well as its smaller neighbours should be careful about the ulterior motive of China.

(The writer is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely of the author.)

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Is It The Devil & The Deep Sea Situation For Japan?

• East & South China Seas dominate Biden-Suga talks

The Author

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 26 April 2021.  All geo-political eyes were on Washington when Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga met  United States President Joe Biden recently. Both the leaders are new to their hot seats and are still settling down. And the Japanese PM’s first overseas visit to US reiterated that the two geo-political allies are friends indeed.

This summit amidst corona times focussed on  expansionist China who  is not only threatening Taiwan but attacked India and shows its strength in South China Sea as well as East China sea. The meeting was also Biden’s first in-person meeting with a foreign leader after taking over as the president of U.S. in January 2021.

Both the leaders held a joint press conference in the Rose Garden of  White House in which Biden stresses on the U.S. promises about the defence of Japan and made it clear that the U.S. is Japan’s treaty ally, and they would “prove that democracies can still commit and win.” The bonhomie was visible between the two leaders.

 Suga informed that both of them also talked about “China’s influence over the peace and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific, and the world at large”. Suga further mentioned that “We agreed to oppose any attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion in the East and South China Seas and intimidation of others in the region.”  Japanese Prime Minister also commented that “we agreed on the necessity for each of us to engage in frank dialogue with China, and in so doing, to pursue stability of international relations, while upholding universal values.”

Japan is in difficult situation about its relations with U.S. and China. U.S. guarantees the security of Japan while its economy depends largely on China. U.S. and Japan had signed the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security in 1951 at San Francisco, which  was amended in 1960 in Washington DC which states that in case of any attack on either Japan or  on U.S. forces in Japan, both countries together will face the danger and combat the enemy. The treaty also provides that U.S. can maintain military bases in Japan however Americans should not interfere in the domestic politics of the country. Although the treaty was for 10 years but there was a provision that it will continue unless one party gives one year notice for the dissolution of the treaty, which is still continuing.

On the other hand, Japan is China’s third biggest trading partner, and the current trade is about $317 billion. China which is Japan’s biggest export market accounts for more than 20 percent of Japan’s total trade. Japan’s investment in China is more than $ 124 billion at the end of 2018. In 2018 about 8.4. million Chinese visited Japan and spent about $13 billion. At present about 800 thousand Chinese students are studying in Japan. Few months ago Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister in an bilateral talk had agreed to increase the economic cooperation to minimise the ill effect of pandemic.

Prime Minister Suga mentioned in the joint communique with President Biden about peace and stability in Taiwan and it also urged to solve the dispute amicably. It is the first time after 1969 when Japanese Prime Minister mentioned Taiwan with United States in a joint communique. In 1969 Richard Nixon and Eisaku Sato had mentioned Taiwan in the joint statement. Suga also mentioned that he and President Biden talked about their lives and careers. He contended that “I think we were able to establish a good relationship of trust.”

It appears that Biden administration feels that China is progressing very fast and soon it will challenge the lone super power status of the U.S. hence China needs to be managed carefully. U.S. is withdrawing the troops from Afghanistan so that more attention can be given to East Asia.

Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a 90-minute-long telephonic conversation with his Japanese counterpart before Japanese Prime Minister’s visit to U.S.A. Wang Yi gave a strong message and a ‘timely reminder’ that Japan should not gang up with “certain superpower” against China. Wang told that China has done its best to maintain bilateral ties and now Tokyo being an independent country should not be carried away by any country which is biased towards China. Wang also stated that Tokyo should not interfere in the matters related to Hongkong and Xinjiang which are internal matters of China.

According to Global Times Wang Jian an expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences mentioned that the phone call was a clear warning that Japan should not conspire with U.S. against China. U.S. does not want cordial relations between Japan and China. Beijing also threatened that China-Japan ties will go down sharply if Japan is involved in the Taiwan question. China also warned that Japan besides U.S. is also building up military ties with other countries. A British aircraft carrier would take part in joint exercise with the U.S. and Japan this year. Japan and Germany’s foreign and defence ministers would hold two plus two dialogue on line in April.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), which is known as the Quad has four members including Japan, U.S., India, and Australia. Quad was constituted on the initiative of Japan and the alliance is to defend against the expansionist designs of China. President Xi Jinping has made wide-spread territorial claims and also deployed ships and frigates in South and East China seas. According to Taiwanese Defence Ministry 25 Chinese war planes intruded into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone on 12 April which is a major breach in Taiwan’s airspace.

In view of Chinese aggressive posture Suga was eager to meet Biden and the one-to-one meeting was fixed despite COVID 19 pandemic. In the joint statement besides Taiwan, they also expressed concern about human right violations in Hong Kong and about persecution of Muslim minority groups especially Uighur Muslims residing in Xinjiang Autonomous Region in Northwest China. Although Suga tried to be cautious not to hurt China but he was more outspoken in comparison to his predecessors. Besides the historical differences between Japan and China there are disputes pertaining to Japan controlled Senkaku Islands on which China stakes claim. Taiwan is also an issue of difference, Japanese- American security treaty, Japanese chemical weapons discarded in China and issue of war reparations are also bone of contention between Japan and China. Japan is also concerned as China has developed military installations on disputed territories in the South China Sea.

U.S. ships are regularly patrolling in the area although China claims the area as its territory. Biden has approached U.S. allies so that a joint front can be made against China. Suga also planned to visit India and Philippines in late April and early May but the visits had to be postponed due to spread of coronavirus pandemic. It appears that Japan is afraid of China’s expansionist policies and wants international assistance especially of U.S. to counter China. Suga also wanted to visit India as China has border dispute with India and Delhi stood firm against China in border clashes.  

A look at Japan’s situation gives a feeling that the Asian giant is in the devil and the deep sea situation. Both US and China are important to it , and it will have to walk on a tight rope. Security dependency on US and economic on China makes Japan akin to a tomato in the geopolitical sandwich. But probably Suga will find a way to manage this situation with ease just as his predecessor did.  

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

            Raksha ANIRVEDA

            www.raksha-anirveda.com

https://www.raksha-anirveda.com/quad-is-to-check-on-chinese-assertiveness-in-indo-pacific/

 

 

Quad is to Check on Chinese Assertiveness in Indo-Pacific

Quad is very important for the world especially for India as it may work as a check on the expansionist designs of China. Nonetheless the members of Quad must explain its mandate that the alliance is for securing the economic and security interests of all the countries

April 18, 2021EditorOpinion

By Jai Kumar Verma

A summit of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD, also known as the Quad) was held on March 12. Quad which is an informal strategic dialogue between the United States, Japan, Australia, and India discussed regional and global issues and also agreed that Indo-Pacific region should remain free and open to all. Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated, “Quad has come of age and will remain an important pillar of stability in the Indo-Pacific region.” He also mentioned that it is an expansion of India’s principle of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’.

Besides Indian Prime Minister, the meeting was also addressed by US President Joe Biden and others. Biden asserted that “The Quad is going to be a vital arena for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and I look forward to working closely with all the leaders.”

The South China Sea as well as East China Sea are not only important for global trade but also possess lot of minerals including oil. The world at large including Europe, US, India, Japan, and other countries are concerned about the expansionist designs of China. Beijing asserts authority over South China sea, but the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Brunei also put counterclaims. However, interventionist China has constructed men made islands and now militarising these islands. In East China Sea Dokdo/ Takeshima island is administered by South Korea but claimed by Japan while Senkaku/ Diaoyu is claimed by China but administered by Japan.

The South China Sea as well as East China Sea are not only important for global trade but also possess lot of minerals including oil. The world at large including Europe, US, India, Japan, and other countries are concerned about the expansionist designs of China

In reality US, the lone super power, has not put any claim on this area, but it is participating in Quad and also contested Chinese territorial claims and the deployment of warships and fighter jets in the area. US understands that China is progressing very fast and mineral rich South and East China Sea are important areas hence Beijing must be stopped initially.

Quad is important for India too as it can counter the aggressive designs of China at the land as well as maritime borders. China has built its first overseas base in Djibouti and its undesirable activities in Indian Ocean has alarmed India, Japan, and other countries. In 2007 Shinzo Abe, the then Prime Minister of Japan, had proposed about Quad but it could not be materialised as Australia under pressure from China refused to join it. However, in December 2012 Shinzo Abe again proposed it and in November 2017 India, US, Japan, and Australia established Quad with specific purpose to keep the Indo-Pacific free from any interference of any power, especially China.

Importance of Quad

It was on the sidelines of the summit of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held in Manila when four countries India, US, Japan, and Australia constituted Quad. The basic objective of Quad is to keep Indo-Pacific region free and open so that no country can dominate it. Free and open Indo-Pacific region is beneficial, and it will serve the long-term interest of all the countries. The Quad was needed so that the belligerence and monopolisation of China can be restrained through the joint effort. The Chinese aggressiveness was increasing not only in South China Sea, but it was also threatening India and Bhutan on land borders.

Quad is important for India too as it can counter the aggressive designs of China at the land as well as maritime borders. China has built its first overseas base in Djibouti and its undesirable activities in Indian Ocean has alarmed India, Japan, and other countries

Quad will also handle the rising problem of terrorism and nuclear proliferation. It will also deal with the nuclear and missile programme of North Korea. As US and Japan are the members of Quad the various developmental projects of other countries can be financed.

The four-nation strategic alliance is important for India as through it New Delhi can expand its interests in East Asia. It will also strengthen its relations with US, Japan, and Australia. Better relations with US will be advantageous as it may safeguard India’s interest while formulating policies towards Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the region while India can also take advantage of Japan’s technological advancement and its deep pockets. That apart, in case of Chinese incursion on Indian borders, members of Quad would come for India’s assistance.

Japanese foreign minister suggested that Britain and France should also join Quad, however, it may not be beneficial at this stage. Inclusion of US and Japan in the region through Quad would diminish the significance of India. China wanted to open its diplomatic mission in Bhutan but India blocked it. However, if US also like to open its consulate in Bhutan it will be difficult for India to avert it. India objected the presence of Chinese navy in Sri Lanka but now it will not be feasible to stop the presence of US and Japanese naval ships. It appears that the global alliance will change India’s regional aspirations. The analysts also claim that India is becoming a part of US China rivalry which may not be beneficial for the country.

The Quad was needed so that the belligerence and monopolisation of China can be restrained through the joint effort. The Chinese aggressiveness was increasing not only in South China Sea, but it was also threatening India and Bhutan on land borders

The world Bank, Asian Development Bank and other international financial organisations should liberally fund the infrastructure projects in the region so that the dependence of the smaller countries can be reduced on China and they do not fall in the debt-trap of China. At present China is very aggressively promoting Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and several countries are falling prey to it. India and Japan have discussed about “Asia-Africa Growth Corridor” and now both countries with the help of US and other financial institutions should start implementing it. India should continue emphasising its neighbourhood first policy which is very useful.

China is strengthening itself very rapidly and it is dangerous for India. In reality India needs countries which may help it against China. Indian and Chinese forces are fighting at the borders as China is illegally occupying Indian territory and still claims much more areas. China helps Pakistan against India on Kashmir issue. On Cross border terrorism US tries to put pressure on Pakistan while Beijing favours Islamabad. China blocks India’s membership in Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) as well as permanent membership in UN Security Council. US helps India at both these associations. China is selling finished goods to India and balance of payment is exceedingly in favour of China. India may try to diversify its economy through Quad. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) weakens India’s territorial sovereignty, and it increases undue influence of China. In last India needs US and others to counter rising Chinese influence and assertiveness.

However, China is very critical of Quad and alleges that it is parallel to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Asia region. Beijing is also critical of Quad as it wanted to dominate the maritime space in South and East China Seas which is much more important than capturing some areas in Himalayas. South and East China Seas are also important as bulk of Chinese trade passes from there. The daily tabloid, Global Times, which is published under the aegis of Chinese Communist Party’s flagship People’s Daily is known for fabrications and disinformation, mentioned in an article in March this year that India’s coalition with US, Japan and Australia is a “negative asset” for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). The paper further mentions that for India, Quad is a contradiction and it will worsen its relations with China and Russia. The paper further alleges that India took the advantage of BRICS on terrorism etc. and now through Quad is trying to ‘blackmail’ China while US will use India against China.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) weakens India’s territorial sovereignty, and it increases undue influence of China. In last India needs US and others to counter rising Chinese influence and assertiveness

Quad is very important for the world especially for India as it may work as a check on the expansionist designs of China. Nonetheless the members of Quad must explain its mandate that the alliance is for securing the economic and security interests of all the countries. The littoral states must be convinced that Quad is for the regional benefit and it is not a military alliance as propagated by China. Countries like Indonesia and Singapore may be invited to join Quad. As India needs to play an important role in the region, a new division may be created in Ministry of External Affairs to deal with the Indo-Pacific region. The MEA should also formulate a comprehensive policy about the existing and forthcoming maritime challenges.

-The writer is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of USI and MP-IDSA. The views in the article are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda

Pitiable Condition of Muslims in China

 

There are about 20.32 million Muslims in China. The Uighur Muslims who are Turkic-speaking people are concentrated in Xinjiang region, which is the biggest state in the country. Uighurs are fighting for an independent nation. The State Administration for Religious Affairs (SARA) claim that there are about 36,000 Islamic places of worship, about 45,000 Imams and 10 Islamic Schools in the country. The Xinjiang region which is strategically important is 1.5 times of Pakistan and 12 times bigger than Bangladesh. It borders eight countries including India, Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. There are several nationalist organisations in Xinjiang region, and they are fighting for the independence of the region. The administration locked large number of mosques, madrassas and other seminaries, fasting was prohibited during the holy month of Ramadan. Muslims are barred from wearing traditional Muslim attire and are not allowed to keep the beard. Muslims are prohibited to celebrate their religious festivals, while women are forbidden to wear Burqa. Chinese government have established concentration camps but gave them a polished name “Vocational Education and Training Centres” (VETC). In these camps the detainees have to undergo torture, rape, sterilization or even unnatural abuses. Muslim children are separated from their parents and kept in boarding schools. The Uighur nationalist organisations allege that vital organs of the captives in the camp are removed and sold in international market without their knowledge and permission. Chinese government should stop atrocities on Muslims especially on Uighur Muslims. They must get religious freedom and should be allowed to follow their religious rituals. The effort of the Chinese government to change the demography of the area by settling more and more Han Chinese and Hui Muslims is unproductive and the resentment and secessionist feeling among Uighurs is increasing. In view of China’s exploitation of minorities, the diverse human right organisations as well as the free world must boycott China’s products so that it is hurt economically. President Xi Jinping should also stop repression and maltreatment of the minorities. Although the free world including USA are taking action against China, but the Muslim countries should also condemn China and start boycotting their products.   

    

 

Muslims are an important minority group in People’s Republic of China and the Muslim population was around 20.32 million in 2012 which is about 1.64 percent of China’s total population and about 20 percent of Chinese ethnic population. (6)

China recognises about 55 minority groups and out of that 10 groups are of Sunni Muslims. Hui Muslims are the largest Muslim group in China, but they are spread all over China and adhere to Chinese way of life. At present Chinese government has problem with Uighur Muslims as they have concentration in Xinjiang autonomous region which is the biggest region in China. Significant number of Muslims also reside in Ningxia, Gansu and Qinghai provinces of China.

Islam reached China about 1400 years ago from the northwest through the silk route and from southeast through Canton. According to census of 2000, Hui is the biggest Muslim group consisting of 9.8 million, Uighur Muslims are 8.4 million, Kazakh 1.25 million, Dongxiang 514,000, Kyrgyz 144,000, Uzbeks (125,000), Salar (105,000), Tajik (41,000), Bonan  (17,000) and Tatar (5,000). Besides these there are Tibetan Muslims also. According to a 2009 study of Pew Research Centre there are about 21,667,000 Muslims in China which is about 1.6 percent of the total population. The 2000 census also mentions that there are about 20 million Muslims in China. As Chinese are bent upon crushing Muslims especially Uighur Muslims by not allowing them to follow their religious rites hence Uighurs feel that not only their religion, but their historical traditions and culture are also in danger.  

State Administration for Religious Affairs (SARA) mentions that about 21 million Muslims are residing in China. The basic reason of spread of Islam in China is that Chinese people travel to Islamic countries for education and Haj however Muslims were prevented for going to Haj during Cultural Revolution, but Chinese government allowed Muslims to go for Haj w.e.f.1979. SARA claims that there are about 36,000 Islamic places of worship, about 45,000 Imams and 10 Islamic Schools in the country. The Muslim population in China is not growing fast as it is happening in other Asian countries because Muslims are coerced to practice one child norm due to stringent government policies. The Imams are also forced to preach them to restrict the population and also narrate the benefits of population control. The majority Muslims are Sunnis while Shias are mainly Ismailis. (2)  

Mao Zedong Chairman of the Communist Party of China (CPC) eradicated capitalism and traditional elements from China under Cultural Revolution which mainly worked from 1966 to 1976. During the Cultural Revolution religious buildings including mosques, temples, churches and Buddhist monasteries were demolished. The religious books of all religions including Muslims were also destroyed by Red Guards.

In 1975 Hui Muslims revolted against the Cultural Revolution, nevertheless the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Chinese government termed it as an Islamic uprising and the Red Guards attacked Hui Muslims, demolished mosques and forced Hui Muslims to put pig’s heads around their necks. The PLA troops demolished about 4000 houses and massacred about 1600 Hui Muslims in one week. Later Chinese government apologised the massacre and blamed Gang of Four for the attack. Government also built a memorial; however, the locals discard it and do not pay homage in the state built memorial.

Again, on 1^st March 2014 few knife-wielding Muslims stabbed the passengers in the Kunming railway station. The attackers killed more than 30 passengers while about 140 people were injured. The police shot dead four attackers while three got death sentence and one-woman attacker was sentenced to life imprisonment. Later the enquiry revealed that the attackers were not Hui Muslims but Uighur Muslims who came from Xinjiang autonomous region where they are fighting for an independent country. Nonetheless the Kunming attackers were given shelter in Shadian.  Hence Chinese call Shadian as “China’s Islamic State.” (1)

Hui Muslims have adopted Chinese culture and claim that they have “Islam with Chinese characteristics.” Chinese have also given some religious freedom to them. In 1989 China proscribed a book captioned as “Xing Fengsu”, which offended Islam and also arrested its authors. The police also gave protection to Hui Muslims who protested against the writing and publishing of the book. Chinese government also arranged the public burning of the book. Hui Muslims are also allowed to practice some tenets of Islam while Uighurs are under severe restrictions.

Hui Muslims

Hui Muslims are largest Muslim group in China but there are several sects in Huis and there are bitter fights between these sects. The history of sectarian fight can be traced to Jahriyya rebellion in 1780 and 1895, however the latest struggle was in 1990 in Ningxia autonomous region in north-central China. The different Hui sects do not marry in other sects. The influence of Wahabi and Salafi sects is increasing in China as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar donate money so that Salafi mosques and Madrasas are constructed. Few Salafi extremists had also gone to Iraq and Syria to join Islamic State (IS).

 

In-fights between Hui and Uighur Muslims 

There are several causes of infights between Huis and Uighur Muslims. The basic reason was that Hui Muslims working in security forces especially in Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) quelled the rebellion of Uighurs mercilessly in Xinjiang autonomous region. The Hui population increased about 520 percent in Uighur dominated Xinjiang province between 1940 and 1982. In a calculated move China changed the demography of Xinjiang region, Uighurs were 90 percent of the population till 1949 while Han population was about 4 percent. However now the Uighur population is reduced to less than 55 percent while Han, Hui and others population became about 45 percent of Xinjiang region. The Chinese are not only targeting Uighur Muslims but also keeping about 3 million Kazakh, Kyrgyz and other Muslims in concentration camps. Uighurs who were fighting for an independent nation became suspicious of the phenomenal growth of Hui Muslims in Xinjiang region. In 2009 Uighurs revolted and killed about 200 persons. Uighur extremists also shouted slogans “Kill the Han, kill the Hui.” In past Hui troops also massacred large number of Uighurs and they criticise Uighurs for their separatist movement. Hui has adopted China as their home and speak Chinese language. Uighurs also claim that Hui smuggle drug in Xinjiang region. (3 &15)

Tibetan Muslims

Tibetan Muslims are mostly Hui and there is lot of animosity between Tibetans and Muslims residing in Tibet. Riots broke out between Tibetans and Muslims in 2008. Tibetans alleged that Muslims are cannibals and burnt their hotels and homes in which several Muslims were also charred. In 2008 Tibetans also burnt the mosques. Hui Muslims supported Chinese government in crushing the Tibetan uprising. Tibetans also boycott Muslims and justify US attacks on Iraq and Afghanistan. Tibetans oppose burial by Muslims and attack their cemeteries. As Hui support Chinese hence Tibetans attack Hui Muslims to show their resentment towards Chinese. (3) 

Following are the main separatist organisations of Uighurs.

East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM)

The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is also known as Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) and Turkistan Islamic Movement (TIM). It is most important Uighur organisation which is fighting for the independence of East Turkestan. Their ideology is based on Islamic fundamentalism, Salafi Jihadism and Uighur nationalism. The organisation is an Islamic extremists party which was established by Uighur jihadists.  They profess that Uighurs cannot live with Chinese hence they need a separate homeland which they will take through violence. The outfit wants to establish an Islamic Caliphate in Xinjiang region which will include some parts of Central Asia also. The organisation which is active since 1988 has influence in Xinjiang Region of China, North Waziristan area of Pakistan, Badakhshan of Afghanistan, some areas of Central Asia and in some parts of Syria also. There are reports that the ETIM has also contacts with terrorist organisations like Al-Qaeda, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

A Chinese report of 2002 claims that the ETIM was involved in about 200 terrorist acts between 1990 to 2001 in which more than 162 people were killed while about 440 were injured. In 2002 UN Security Council Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee listed ETIM as a terrorist organisation. Besides UN several countries including China, European Union, United States, United Kingdom, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Pakistan, Russia, and Turkey declared ETIM a terrorist organisation.

Ziyauddin Yusuf founded East Turkistan Islamic Party (ETIP) in 1989 however in 1997 Hasan Mahsum and Abudukadir Yapuquan changed it to present organisation. ETIM had full support from Afghan Taliban and it shifted its Hqrs to Kabul in 1998. However, the organisation was considerably weakened when US bombarded the area and Pakistan killed Hasan Mahsum in a raid in 2003. There is a long list of terrorist activities carried out by the outfit.

 

East Turkistan Liberation Organisation

The East Turkestan Liberation Organisation (ETLO) was established in 2000 by Mehmet Emin Hazret in Turkey to fight the Chinese and to establish an independent Uighur country in Xinjiang region with the name of East Turkestan. ETLO was declared a terrorist organisation by few countries including China, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. China government alleged that ETLO cadres carried out 15 arson cases in Urumqi while in 1999 ETLO workers attacked several Chinese in Turkey and the local police arrested 10 ETLO workers for attacking Han Chinese. The Amnesty International also reported that Chinese government use the term “separatism” but in fact several times the protests are peaceful. Chinese have used all types of repressive measures and thousands of Uighurs were charged under different Criminal Laws and either imprisoned or awarded death sentences because they were charged under secessionist laws. The analysts claim that Chinese security agencies embellish the activities of these groups so that they can use more repressive measures. Chinese security agencies also claimed that they arrested an ETLO terrorist after encounter and he claimed that he was trained in Afghanistan. The Amnesty International also mentioned that the allegations levelled by Chinese security agencies against the Uighur separatists were generally “uncorroborated” and the security agencies failed to provide the evidences. Chinese security agencies work on the basis of confessions which are obtained from the Uighur separatists including ETLO members through torture and persecution. (7)

One ETLO leader namely Hazret told Radio Free Asia that ETLO wants to use peaceful means to achieve its goal but in view of the ruthlessness of Chinese security agencies the outfit needs a military wing. He also mentioned that ETLO wants the independence of Xinjiang region. The ETLO was declared a terrorist organisation by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) members including China, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The ETLO is mainly active in Xinjiang region but has also influence in Central Asia and Pakistan. The ETLO has also contacts with East Turkestan Islamic Movement and the Taliban. (7)     

     

United Revolutionary Front of East Turkestan

The United Revolutionary Front of East Turkestan (URFET) is an armed separatist organisation which is fighting for the independence of Xinjiang region. The outfit is led by Yusupbek Mukhlisi, he along with other important leaders of URFET are operating from Almaty capital city of Kazakhstan. Soviet Union supported the URFET till 1989 but in 2001 it merged with Uyghur Liberation Organisation (ULO). The present name of the new outfit is Uyghurstan People’s Party. (9)

 

Uyghuristan People’s Party (UPP)

Uighur Liberation Organisation (ULO) is a secessionist organisation which is fighting for the independence of Xinjiang region, nonetheless in September 2001 it was merged with Uyghur Liberation Organisation (ULO) and a new organisation emerged with the name of Uyghuristan People’s Party (UPP). It was a Kazakhstan based party but could not be very active because of limitations imposed by the host country on unregistered parties. In Kazakhstan unregistered parties are not allowed to hold formal conferences. Although in principle UPP rejects terrorism but differentiates between civilian targets and military targets. (9 &13)

    

Turkistan Islamic Party

The Turkish Islamic Party (TIP) worked silently till it participated in Syrian civil war in 2013. The Afghanistan and Pakistan based TIP released videos and also started Isom Awazi (Voice of Islam) under which it propagated about the violent activities of the outfit. The TIP fighters besides fighting in Xinjiang region also fought under the banner of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in Afghanistan. US arrested few Uighur militants in Afghanistan and the arrested militants revealed that several dozen Uighurs were fighting against US troops. The TIP militants left China and took refuge in Afghanistan when Chinese security forces started suppressing the Uighur nationalists. Several Uighur militants escaped to Afghanistan and in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. (10)

TIP militants claim that they were involved in several terrorist activities out of which following were prominent. However, there are no evidences to prove their claim.

(I)two bus bombings in Kunming just before Beijing Olympics in 2008. 

(II)Mass stabbing attack in Kashgar in 2011, a car-bombing in Tiananmen square in October 2013 in which several foreigners were killed.

(III) In April 2014 double suicide bombing at Urumqi Railway station.

(IV) In May 2014 car-bombings and explosions at an Urumqi market in which dozens of persons were killed. (10) 

World Uyghur Congress

The World Uyghur Congress (WUC) is an organisation of exiled Uighurs who are working for the interest of Uighurs in Xinjiang region of China as well as abroad. Uighurs call Xinjiang region as East Turkestan. WUC claims that it is a nonviolent organisation and it works against the oppression of Chinese and its illegal occupation of East Turkestan. It also opposes totalitarianism, religious intolerance and terrorism. The organisation gets funding from National Endowment for Democracy (NED) of U.S.A. Consequent upon the merger of East Turkistan National Congress and the World Uyghur Youth Congress, the WUC came into existence on 16 April 2004 in Munich, Germany. The WUC leadership is democratically elected and they have a fixed tenure of three years and it has close relations with all Uighur organisations. The WUC exposes the human right violations by Chinese government in Xinxiang province and it also works closely with U.S.A., European Union, United Nations and Human Right Organisations and different NGOs. (11)  

Vocational Education and Training Centres

Chinese government have established concentration camps but gave them a refined name “Vocational Education and Training Centres” (VETC). These VETC which are also known as re-education campus work under Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Regional government. The Uighur nationalist organisations allege that the vital organs of the inhabitants of these camps are removed without their permission and sold in international market. Besides Uighurs, Muslims of other sects are also forced to live in these camps and their organs are taken out without their permission. It is also reported that 23 countries had submitted a letter to UNO in which they condemned the cases of human right violations in China in 2019. In 2018 BBC news also published an investigative report on the basis of satellite imagery and witnesses account that hundreds of thousands of Muslims especially Uighurs were kept in these camps without any trial. The US State Department also claim that between 1 million to 3 million people were kept in these concentration camps. The Uighur nationalist leaders claim that Chinese want to annihilate Uighur Muslims from China. According to reports the Muslims are kept in these camps for keeping beards, refusing to consume alcohol or in suspicion of their involvement in religious activities. In these camps the detainees have to undergo torture, rape, sterilization or even unnatural abuses. Muslim children are separated from their parents and kept in boarding schools. The detainees of these camps are used as labourers and forced to work in mills and factories. Not only this, government depute government officials to live with Muslim families and if they practice Islam then they are declared as religious fanatics and forcibly put in these camps. Besides religious places Government also destroyed or removed signboards written in Arabic language.

As more and more countries are criticising and condemning China for detention of Muslims in the VETC, Chinese government claimed that the number of VETC are reduced however the researchers of Australian Strategic Policy Institute recently released a report in which they mentioned that the number of VETC are increasing. This fact is also confirmed by the satellite images which clearly show massive buildings which are surrounded by barbed wire fitted tall fortifications with watch towers. These buildings have security arrangements akin to prisons. The buildings are so massive that more than 10,000 persons can be imprisoned at a time. China declined to tell the number of VETC and the prisoners in these camps. The knowledgeable sources claim that there are about 380 detention centers in Xinjiang province alone. There are several extrajudicial captives in these camps. The Chinese government has already put several restrictions so that foreign journalists fail to investigate the reality of these camps. Chinese security forces take only the selected journalists to these camps and that too on choreographed tours. (14)

Inhuman atrocities on Uighur Muslims

The authoritarian and expansionist communist regime does not tolerate any type of dissent and crush it with iron fist. The Uighur Muslims are Turkic-speaking people and are in majority in Xinjiang autonomous region. The Xinjiang region which is strategically important is 1.5 times of Pakistan and 12 times bigger than Bangladesh. It borders eight countries including India, Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Out of these eight countries five are Muslim majority nations. The Islamic radical elements of these Muslim countries especially of Pakistan and Afghanistan assist Uighur separatist elements. The Chinese administrators in Xinjiang also complain that Uighur separatist elements get training in guerrilla warfare, fire arms and Jihadi ideology in Pakistan as well as in Afghanistan. In the current circumstances China assists Afghan Taliban so that they can counter the Islamic State in Afghanistan. China is averse to the idea of Islamic State (IS) becomes stronger in Afghanistan. (4)

The Xinjiang region is spread over 1.6 million KMs and has the total population of 25 million people. The main ethnic groups in the state are Uighurs, Kazakhs and Kyrgyz, Han, Tibetans, Hui, Tajiks, Mongols, Russians and Xibe however the largest ethnic group in the province is of Uighur Muslims. Although it is the biggest province but only 9.7 percent area is fit for human inhabitation.

Chinese intelligence agencies are not only involved in collection of intelligence but also launch disinformation campaign against various organisations which are fighting for the human right violations in the country. Chinese government besides Ministry of State Security (MSS) which is the main intelligence agency of China also collects intelligence through the United Front Work Department, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and several other front organisations. Chinese intelligence agencies also collect information through cyber spying, signal intelligence as well as human intelligence. MSS is very active in collecting intelligence about various dissident organisations including information about independence movements of Tibetans and Uighurs. The Chinese also collect information about Taiwan and democratic movement of Hong Kong.    

The Uighur Muslims are closer to the inhabitants of Central Asian Countries then the Chinese, but China has adopted a long-term strategy and changing the demography of the province. Government has settled large number of Han Chinese as well as Hui Muslims. The 2000 census disclosed that the number of registered Han people rose about 40 percent while there are large number of unregistered Han Chinese also. The Han people are not only better educated but they have support of the government hence they get better jobs and earn more than the local Uighur Muslims. The difference in living standard between Han and Uighurs has become visible and it also generated animosity between them. (4)

Chinese government put stringent restrictions on Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang region as the government was determined to punish Uighur Muslims. The administration closed large number of mosques, madrassas while several seminaries were also locked. Muslims were prevented from wearing traditional Muslim attire and they were not allowed to keep the beard or observe fast in the holy month of Ramadan. Muslims are not allowed to celebrate their religious festivals while women are prohibited to wear Burqa.

According to Amnesty International report of 2013, Chinese government prohibited even the cultural activities of Muslims in the province. Uighur Muslims in particular and several other sects of Muslims in China mention that the government is methodically destroying Islam from the country. The Uighurs claim that as Islam is in danger, they have opted for terrorism and uprising. The government is committing all types of atrocities on bloggers, people maintaining websites or anybody writing anything against government. All newspapers and magazines are writing fabricated stories against Muslims and not giving the true picture. (4)

Uighurs who were able to escape from China are worried about the welfare of their family members as the Chinese security agencies torture them and press them to recall the escaped Uighurs. Although the Muslim states did not criticise China but US has started taking actions against Chinese suppression of Muslims especially Uighur Muslims. US levied sanctions against Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps and also put curbs on import of clothing, cotton, tomatoes etc. House of Representative also passed a resolution prohibiting all imports from Xinjiang province unless they prove that the articles were not produced through forced labour. Human Right organisations claim that Chinese security agencies have apprehended about one million Muslims comprising Uighurs, Kazakhs and other Muslims. Sometimes back United States, Britain and Germany had criticised the Chinese government in United Nations for human right violations and atrocities on Muslims.

According to Dr Adrian Zenz who has a vast knowledge on Uighurs claimed that China is forcibly reducing the population of Uighurs through compulsory sterilisation and birth control. Both the government and Communist Party of China (CCP) are implementing these measures with ulterior motive of suppressing the Uighurs rebellion. The analysts comment that CCP and Chinese administration are bent upon implementing the policy of Chinese Nation Race and violate human rights of the minorities. (18)

Chinese intelligence agencies which have mastered the art of hacking have launched an enormous hacking campaign against the Uighurs. Chinese authorities confiscate the mobile phones of Uighurs and return them after fitting spyware in these phones. The Chinese security agencies are able to monitor the activities of Uighurs not only in China but abroad too through forcibly fitted spywares in mobile phones. The intelligence agencies are also keeping the record of voice prints, facial images, blood samples and other personal details of the Uighurs which can be used against them in case of necessity. Chinese security agencies also monitor different apps installed in the phones and computers of the Uighurs. Toronto-based Munk School of Public Affairs has also confirmed about the electronic monitoring by Chinese security agencies. In view of the illegal activities of Huawei Technologies Company and ZTE groups the US Federal Communications Commission has labelled them as national threat. (18)       

Although security forces cruelly repress the demonstrations, protests or agitations but Muslims especially Uighurs continued with their independence movement. In 2009 Uighurs resorted to riots in which more than 200 persons were killed. Though security forces resorted to mayhems, but the rebellion could be quelled only after much efforts. An effort of Uighurs to hijack a plane in 2012 was foiled and two Uighurs were killed mercilessly. Uighurs also attacked police stations. Again in 2013 Uighurs attacked security forces in Shanshan county in which about 27 persons were killed. In 2014 Uighurs resorted to several terrorist activities including a bomb blast in Urumqi in which more than 43 people were killed and about 100 injured. Cases of rioting occurred at Urmi Railway Station, in Yarkant county and at Luntai county, in these riots more than 250 persons were killed while few thousand people were injured.

Chinese security forces are ruthless in dealing with Muslims especially Uighurs who are suspected to be involved in secessionist activities. In January 2016 security forces eliminated three Uighurs suspected to be involved in the attack in Moyu county in 2015. Four Uighurs butted their car full of explosives in a government building in Karakax county in which one person was killed while three others were injured. The security forces immediately eliminated four suspected Uighur terrorists. Chinese authorities also confiscated passports of Uighurs residing in that area. However, the human right activists claim that the security forces have increased the restrictions. As the atrocities of Chinese security forces increased, Uighurs also augmented the frequency of riots, protests and violent activities. (4&5)     

Nonetheless, the media does not cover the protests and Chinese security agencies award severe punishments if the photographs of these protests, demonstrations and brutality of security forces are put on social media. The security forces adopted several other draconian measures including arrests under suspicion, severe cruelty during interrogation, police checks at unearthly hours, arrests of large number of people and punitive judgments even giving death sentences on suspicion. Chinese adopted these harsh measures to break the moral of the separatists.

In January 2017 the Chairman of Xinjiang region mentioned that the Uighurs are crossing the border and the neighbouring countries are imparting weapon training as well as training in guerrilla warfare to these separatist elements. These Uighur terrorists carry out terrorist activities after getting training from the neighbouring countries. He further mentioned that because these terrorists are crossing the border, hence he put stern restrictions on the border areas. Although the Chairman and other Chinese leaders did not take the name of Pakistan, but they claim that the separatist elements are getting training in Pakistan as well as in Afghanistan. According to intelligence sources the Chairman and other office bearers unofficially told Pakistan to be more vigilant on the borders and should also stop the terrorist outfits which are imparting training to Muslim separatists. Pakistan should also stop infiltration and exfiltration of the terrorists in its area.

Chinese leaders claim that the separatists leaders who are residing comfortably abroad are instigating the Uighur masses for uprising. However, the China watchers claim that it is an indigenous movement which was generated because Chinese had not given rights to Muslims especially Uighurs. They tried to crush the movement by brute force and by trying to change the demography of the area. The mass settlement of Han and Hui Muslims generated a fear psychosis in Uighurs and the rebellion augmented. The Uighurs are suffering from religious discrimination and poverty. Chinese are also against Uighurs as they are against China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and claim that it is not beneficial for Xinjiang region. CPEC is an important part of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which was initiated by China in 2013 under the name of One Belt One Road (OBOR) and it is the dream project of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Uighurs claim that they would obstruct the construction of CPEC which connects Gwadar Port with Xinjiang province.

Way Forward

Xi Jinping is President of People’s Republic of China since 2013 is in great hurry to make the country not only the super power but the most powerful nation of the world. He launched the BRI which is a global infrastructure development project under which Chinese government would invest in about 70 countries. It is spread in Asia, Africa, Europe, Middle East and Americas and may establish the supremacy of China. President Xi Jinping intends to upsurge China’s influence in several countries of the world. However, to complete his dream project Jinping is also suppressing his own countrymen and in this minorities are the biggest victim. In minorities Muslims particularly Uighur Muslims who have concentration in Xinjiang region and fighting for an independent nation are the main victims.

Uighur separatists also claim that the majority inhabitants of Xinjiang province want to secede from China and there should be an impartial referendum under the supervision of United Nations. Although it is a fact that residents of Xinjiang region want to secede from China but there is no solidarity between various separatist organisations. The secessionists outfits are divided on three main principles i.e Muslim religion, separate nation for Uighurs and lastly the linkage with Turkey. Nonetheless as China is their common enemy hence all groups should work together to achieve the success. China should stop its assistance to Pakistan as the latter is a terrorist state and there are several terrorist outfits which are not in the control of government and they would continue assisting Uighur secessionist elements on the name of Islam. Pakistan government has neither will nor resources to stop these terrorist outfits.

Secondly Chinese government should stop atrocities on Uighur Muslims. They must get religious freedom and should be allowed to follow the religious rituals. The effort of the Chinese government to change the demography of the area by settling more and more Han Chinese and Hui Muslims is unproductive and the resentment and secessionist feeling is increasing. Chinese government should understand that it is a homegrown movement and it cannot be repressed by brute force.

Islamabad is in difficult situation as it cannot act against Chinese government due to its dependence on several things. Pakistan is dependent economically as well as for the supply of defence equipment on Beijing. Pakistan also feel that China will come for its rescue in case of Indo-Pak war although India and Pakistan already fought three wars and China never came forward. However Pakistani masses are against China and they want to extend assistance to the Uighur Muslims, and they are unhappy as China is ill-treating their Muslim brothers. Several articles are appearing in Pakistani newspapers and magazines criticising China for the mayhem of Uighurs. The articles also criticise Pakistan government for not supporting the Muslim brothers in their just struggle.

The Uighurs claim that their women are raped, men are forcibly sterilized, and children are detached from their parents. Chinese have destroyed more than 10,000 mosques in last three years. It is unfortunate that Muslims are not raising their voices against the massive repression of their community. Muslims attacked the office of Charlie Hebdo newspaper in Paris when it published a cartoon which insulted Islam. Muslims all over world criticised and condemned Myanmar authorities when they evicted Rohingya Muslims from the country. It is difficult for Muslims in China to raise voice against Chinese suppression but it is difficult to understand why Saudi Arabia which claims to be the leader of Muslim world or Turkey which is trying to swap Saudi Arabia and is claiming the leadership of Muslim world is also not criticising China. Malaysia which raises Kashmir issue in international forums is also not speaking against China. Iran instead of criticising appreciated China. It appears that Beijing has muted their voice through money power. China invested about Rs.4.47 lakh crore in Pakistan and signed a deal of Rs.5.20 lakh crore with Saudi Arabia. China has close economic relations with Malaysia and Beijing also saved economy of Turkey. About 30 Muslim countries agreed to participate in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Nevertheless, the Muslim countries as well as Muslims all over the world should stop using Chinese goods and should press China to stop atrocities on minorities especially Uighur Muslims.   (15)

It is good that US along with UK and France are imposing restrictions on Chinese goods and companies which are working against the human rights of Chinese citizens especially Uighur Muslims. China criticises other countries for human right violations. Beijing also issued statements against India for human right violations in Kashmir on the basis of fabricated facts provided by Pakistan while there are numerous human right violations against all Muslims in China.    

German Ambassador Christoph Heusgen spoke on behalf of 39 countries in United Nations on 6^th October 2020. In the speech he mentioned that “We are gravely concerned about the human rights situation in Xinjiang and the recent developments in Hong Kong”. He also recalled that in June 2020 also, 50 UN Special Procedures mandate holders issued an exceptional letter of concern, calling on the People’s Republic of China to respect human rights. He further mentioned that “We call on China to respect human rights, particularly the rights of persons belonging to religious and ethnic minorities, especially in Xinjiang and Tibet.”  German Ambassador further mentioned that “over a million people are arbitrarily detained” in re-education camps. In last he demanded “unfettered access” to independent observers in Xinjiang. While talking to reporters Ambassador Heusgen mentioned that Beijing should stop these detention camps immediately. British envoy Jonathan Allen also said that China should immediately allow U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights to visit Xinjiang region to assess the situation of Uighurs. (16 &17)

In view of China’s exploitation of minorities, the diverse human right organisations as well as the free world must boycott China’s products so that it is hurt economically. President Xi Jinping should also stop repression and mistreatment of the minorities. In the present era all must enjoy full democratic rights.

Notes and References

1.Alice Su : Harmony and Martyrdom Among China’s Hui Muslims; The New Yorker Dated 6 June, 2016

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/harmony-and-martyrdom-among-chinas-hui-muslims

2. Cihangir Yildirim; China practices double standard with Muslims; Daily Sabah dated 08 June 2015.

https://www.dailysabah.com/asia/2015/06/08/china-practices-double-standard-with-muslims

3. Islam in China; from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_China

4.Jai Kumar Verma; Escalating Islamic terrorism in Xinjiang: Warning bells for Beijing; South Asia Monitor dated 04.02.2017

https://strategicstudyindia.blogspot.com/2017/02/escalating-islamic-terrorism-in.html

5. Chinese police kill four after Xinjiang attack; Chinese police kill four after Xinjiang attack; BBC News dated 28 December 2016

 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38454095

6.Muslims in China; Top China Travel (TCT)

https://www.topchinatravel.com/china-muslim/muslims-in-china.htm

7. Turkistan Islamic Party

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkistan_Islamic_Party

8. Uighur Militants: Global Security.org

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/uighur.htm

9. United Revolutionary Front of East Turkestan

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Revolutionary_Front_of_East_Turkestan

10. The Turkistan Islamic Party in Double-Exile: Geographic and Organizational Divisions in Uighur Jihadism; Jacob Zenn; The Jamestown Foundation, dated 7 September, 2018.

https://jamestown.org/program/the-turkistan-islamic-party-in-double-exile-geographic-and-organizational-divisions-in-uighur-jihadism/

11. Who We Are; WORLD UYGHUR CONGRESS

https://www.uyghurcongress.org/en/introducing-the-world-uyghur-congress/

12. Uran Botobekov; While fighting in Syria, the Turkestan Islamic Party has joined forces with global jihadist movements; The Diplomat Dated 17.08.2016

https://thediplomat.com/2016/08/chinas-nightmare-xinjiang-jihadists-go-global/

 

13. Refugee Review Tribunal AUSTRALIA RRT RESEARCH RESPONSE Research Response Number: CHN17749 Country: China Date: 20 January 2006

https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/4b6fe1442.pdf

14. Chris Buckley and Austin Ramzy; Night Images Reveal Many New Detention Sites in China’s Xinjiang Region; New York Times Dated 24 September, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/world/asia/china-muslims-xinjiang-detention.html

15. Chinese atrocities on Uighur Muslims continue as Islamic community maintains strategic silence; Zee Media Bureau; Dated 19 August, 2020

 https://zeenews.india.com/india/chinese-atrocities-on-uighur-muslims-continue-as-islamic-community-maintains-strategic-silence-2303671.html 

16. Margaret Besheer; At UN: 39 Countries Condemn China's Abuses of Uighurs ; VOA News on China dated 06.10.2020

https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/un-39-countries-condemn-chinas-abuses-uighurs

17. Statement by Ambassador Christoph Heusgen on behalf of 39 Countries in the Third Committee General Debate, October 6, 2020.

https://new-york-un.diplo.de/un-en/news-corner/201006-heusgen-china/2402648

18. Shantanu Mukharji; Uighurs’ plight should alert world; The Statesman dated 8 July 2020

https://www.thestatesman.com/opinion/uighurs-plight-alert-world-2-1502907017.html

 

Aviation & Defence Universe

·        WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM

 

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/xi-jinping-orders-pla-to-be-ready-for-full-time-combat/

 

Home › Spotlight › Xi Jinping orders PLA to be ready for full time combat

Xi Jinping Orders PLA To Be Ready For Full Time Combat

Is India the threat or China faces multi threat?

 

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 13 January 2021.  As the world watched Chinese Premier  addressing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on new year, Xi Jinping the commander-in-chief of the joint battle command centre of the Central Military Commission asserted that the force must be ready for a “full-time combat” and to “act at any second”.

He also stated that PLA must augment the training and use of high-level technology in 2021. The defence forces should also enhance the use of technology in training as well as in exercises and emphasised that the latest technology is essential to boost “combat effectiveness”. Computer stimulations should also be used in drills and exercises. The new equipment, modern technology and new techniques should be incorporated in defences forces.

The shake becomes weak

The 2021 annual exercises of Chinese armed forces also commenced w.e.f. 4 January. In the mobilisation order for the training of all armed forces, it was also stressed that in the military exercises there must be full cooperation among various wings of defence forces and the safety and security of the defence personnel must be observed. The order also mentioned that the policies of Communist Party of China and CMC must be implemented. 

Xi also mentioned that as this year is 100^th anniversary of formation of Communist Party of China, the commanders and the soldiers of the defence forces must be ready to face the adversities and should not fear death. The command and control of PLA, The People’s Armed Police and the China Militia which is the militia part of the armed forces is under the control of State CMC, and Xi Jinping is its chairman.

The state-controlled TV channels showed videotapes of Chinese defence forces participating in military drills. The media also reported that after the president’s instructions, about two million Chinese soldiers became ready for the war. The Chinese state media also showed, the mask-wearing Chinese soldiers, several warships firing shots, tanks in rows in the position of attack and launching of missiles, in the TV channels. China Central Television showed the mock drill in which the Chinese soldiers were coming out from aircraft and attacking the enemies. 

The Chinese President’s speech at this juncture is significant as China has not only invaded India, but is also threatening Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Japan. Chinese troops are encroaching Indian territory since May 2020 and there were face-offs and skirmishes on Indo-china borders at Pangong Lake in Ladakh region. There were also clashes in eastern Ladakh at Line of Actual Control (LAC). Chinese have constructed roads, bridges and culverts in the areas controlled by them however when India also tried to build roads in the Galwan area Chinese objected and in the fight in June 2020, 20 Indian soldiers including a colonel were martyred. The casualties on Chinese side were much more but they have not officially announced the number of deaths. However, according to sources the Chinese fatalities were more than 50 including an officer. Few soldiers were also detained by both sides but later released, although officially both sides denied about detention of soldiers.

There were several rounds of diplomatic and military talks between India and China, where China promised to withdraw but they have not full-filled the promises hence the standoff continued. In view of Chinese aggression, the Indian Border Roads Organisation (BRO) continued developing the infrastructure on Indian side of the borders which was objected by Beijing.

China has also not liked the defanging of Article 370 in August 2019, which resulted in the revocation of special status of Jammu and Kashmir. India banned 200 Chinese apps and there were campaigns to boycott Chinese goods in Indian markets. It appears that India China clashes would continue as India has refused to bow down and Indian forces are facing Chinese troops valiantly.

Courtesy : The Guardian

Beijing is also threatening Taiwan and increased air force fly-by operations targeting Taiwan. Chinese fighter planes also entered in Taiwan airspace thrice and in June Taiwan fighter planes had to “drive away” Chinese J-10 fighter plane. China also sent an aircraft carrier ‘Liaoning’ on a round-trip mission between Okinawa and Miyako islands. Chinese navy also conducted exercises in waterway and deployed a survey vessel to tail West Capella ultra-deep-water drillship contracted by Malaysia’s company. In view of Chinese aggressive posture Taiwanese pro-independence leader Tsai Ing-wen has signed important arms contracts with United States under which Taiwan will get F-16 fighter jets and missiles for army and navy. In April Taiwan conducted test-fire of a missile which can hit targets deep inside China. Taiwan is apprehensive that China is preparing to capture Taiwanese islands in South China Sea.

The US China relations are also its lowest ebb as US is supporting Taiwan and a trade war between both the countries are going on since 2018. US also accused China for spread of Covid-19 in the world and about repression of pro- democracy movement in Hong Kong. US air force conducted approximately 40 sorties over South and East China Seas and US navy also conducted few operations there.         

Vietnam also charged that two Chinese ships attacked its fishing boat near Paracel Islands located in South China Sea. China claims that these islands are Chinese territory. Chinese regularly attacks Vietnamese Fishing boats. Not only this Chinese and US maritime forces also came extremely near to each other in South China Sea amid growing tension between both the countries. Chinese navy also countered US navy patrols in the South China Sea.

The dissent in Hongkong is enhancing and pro-democracy protests are increasing. Chinese efforts to curb the demonstrations by force also failed. Tibet is also not completely peaceful and on 5 January Chinese military choppers performed an aerial drill over the Potala Palace in Lhasa. The aerial exercise is important as US passed Tibetan Policy and Support Act 2020 which reiterates the right of Tibetans to choose the successor of 14th Dalai Lama. China not only wants to manipulate the successor of 14th Dalai Lama but also insists that he must abide by Chinese laws. It is expected that China may again start repression in Tibet.        

After becoming President and Chairman of CMC in late 2012, Xi Jinping is giving special attention on increasing the fighting capabilities of PLA. In 2015 he started an enormous programme to modernise the Chinese armed forces which was planned to end in 2020. The military analysts claim that the fighting capability of PLA has considerably increased as China is facing threat of war from more than one country because of its expansionist policies. Nevertheless, China blames other countries and alleges that they are infringing its sovereignty. Hence it is difficult to assume against which country Chinese army is preparing or to which country it is threatening.

Chinese observers also mention that Xi gave the threatening speech to divert public attention from the second wave of Covid-19 while others claim that the Chinese economy is going down and there is massive unemployment in the country. 

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

Tagged with: BRO, Central Military Commission, China Militia, India, Jammu and Kashmir, LAC, People’s Armed Police, PLA, South China Sea, Spotlight, Taiwan, Xi Jinping

Raksha ANIRVEDA

www.raksha-anirveda.com

China Not for Full-scale War with India but an Honourable Retreat

China is in a ‘Catch 22’ situation and is in no motive to go for a full-scale war with India at this juncture. However, it wants an honourable retreat to emerge victorious before its countrymen in about five month long India-China standoff at LAC in eastern Ladakh

September 14, 2020EditorOpinion

By Jai Kumar Verma

Global Times, the newspaper run by Chinese Communist Party (CCP), recently threatened that “If India wants to engage in competition, China has more tools and capability than India. If India would like a military showdown, the PLA is bound to make the Indian Army suffer much more severe losses than it did in 1962.” The paper painted a gloomy picture of Indian economy and claimed that although United States is supporting India, it will not come for its rescue. Though the editorial was for the consumption of Chinese locals, it mentioned more than once that China welcomes peace with India.

The China watchers claim that at present President Xi Jinping is facing opposition in Communist Party as well as there is a lot of resentment in the public. The public is facing food shortage and there is also deficiency of essential commodities. The unemployment has risen to unprecedented level and the academics, intelligentsias and literary people are unhappy because of imposition of one-man rule in the country.

The image of China is also deteriorated in international arena and several countries in the world are opposing the aggressive policies of Xi Jinping. A Chinese think tank also mentioned that the image of China is declining, and anti-China feelings have increased in the world. Several countries including Taiwan, Australia, Japan and Vietnam are either challenging China or working against Chinese interests. US President Trump not only issued several statements against China but also put several trade restrictions and closed a Chinese Consulate at Houston. The United Kingdom put restrictions on Huawei telecommunication equipment, and India also banned 59 Chinese apps as well as put restrictions on Chinese companies for taking contracts in India.

In the latest incident of skirmish at Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, China attacked India firstly to divert the attention of Chinese public and secondly to show the world at large that China is a powerful country by humiliating India. In 1962 also, Mao Zedong, Chairman of Communist Party of China was facing resentment at internal as well as external fronts, attacked India captured some Indian territory and returned back after mortifying India.

But here President Xi Jinping underestimated the capabilities and resolve of India as New Delhi has reinforced its defence capabilities and also built strategic roads, bridges and other infrastructure on the borders. As China became offensive at multiple areas, several countries including US, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Australia supported India. France expedited the delivery of Rafale fighter jets and Russia also agreed for early delivery of S-400 missile system.

The leadership of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) including Jinping are aware of the weaknesses of PLA and the strength and commitment of Indian defence forces. Indian Army may lack the latest armaments but has experience of mountain warfare and is much ahead of PLA in chivalry, gallantry and courage

The leadership of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) including Jinping are aware of the weaknesses of PLA and the strength and commitment of Indian defence forces. Indian Army may lack the latest armaments but has experience of mountain warfare and is much ahead of PLA in chivalry, gallantry and courage. Indian Army is a regular army while the soldiers are conscripted in Chinese army. They are forced to join army for about five years and then they go back to their easy civil life. Hence, they do not fight whole heartedly. It can be seen in the fight in Galwan valley in which 20 Indian soldiers including the brave Commanding Officer were martyred but before their supreme sacrifice they killed approximately 100 Chinese officers and soldiers. China, however, did not release the figure of casualties because of resentment in PLA and within the country.

The life of army men is difficult; they not only undergo a rigorous training but are also posted at inhospitable terrain. The Chinese youth because of one-child norm, material comforts, economic growth and prosperity became easy-going hence they are not ready to fight or die for the nation. On the night of August 29/30 Indian Army captured few hilltops which are strategically important while Chinese army suffered casualties and had to abandon these posts. Chinese leadership is aware of the weaknesses of PLA hence they signed agreements with India for non-use of weapons on the borders.

On September 10, Indian external affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met Chinese state councillor Wang Yi on the side-lines of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Moscow. The meeting chalked out a five points programme to deescalate the tension between both the countries. The meeting was held in view of the worsening situation which led to the exchange of bullets on September 7 between troops of both the countries after about 45 years. Post the conclusion of the meeting between both the foreign ministers, China took the lead to issue the press release, but it did not elaborate the five points agreed during the meeting.

The Indian “joint statement” mentioned all five points. It stated that “the two foreign ministers agreed that the current situation in the border areas is not in the interest of either side. They agreed therefore that the border troops of both sides should continue their dialogue, quickly disengage, maintain proper distance and ease tensions.” The joint statement also declared that “the two ministers agreed that both sides shall abide by all the existing agreements and protocol on China-India boundary affairs, maintain peace and tranquillity in the border areas and avoid any action that could escalate matters.”

Beijing, which has already built infrastructure in the border region, opposes India’s development of roads, bridges and other infrastructure in the areas abutting India-China borders. China has also not liked India’s repeal of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir and lifting the semi-autonomous status of Ladakh

Both the ministers agreed “to continue to have dialogue and communication through the Special Representative mechanism on the India-China boundary question. They also agreed in this context that the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs (WMCC) should also continue its meetings.” It was also decided that once situation eases new Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) would be concluded so that peace and tranquillity is restored in the border areas. Chinese even after their promise to deescalate never adhered to the same, and continuously keep enhancing their deployments. Hence India may adopt the policy of wait and watch and constantly monitor Chinese moves and continue strengthening its forces in the border areas.

China which is an expansionist country claims 90,000 square kilometres of Indian territory including Arunachal Pradesh. China has already occupied 38,000 square kilometres of Indian territory in Aksai Chin area which is part of Kashmir. Besides border dispute there are also economic competition between both the countries. New Delhi is trying its best for US and European companies transfer their manufacturing units in India as labour cost in China is increasing and Chinese relations with several countries are worsening. The growing India U.S. relationship is also viewed by China as an alliance against it. Beijing, which has already built infrastructure in the border region, opposes India’s development of roads, bridges and other infrastructure in the areas abutting India-China borders. China has also not liked India’s repeal of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir and lifting the semi-autonomous status of Ladakh.

Representative image

China has adopted the strategy of ‘salami slicing’ which means that China will take series of aggressions and after every attack it will retreat but not from all occupied territory. In this way after every aggression it will enhance its territory slowly but steadily. Hence India must be cautious and should insist that PLA forces must retreat completely and not agree to “meet each other halfway”. As under the policy of ‘salami slicing’ China will occupy 10 miles and will retreat five miles and will gain five miles in every aggression.

At present China has limited options it cannot go for a full-scale war by using long range artillery as in that case India will also retaliate and few other countries which have animosity with China may help India overtly or covertly. Chinese economic condition is also precarious, and India may start assisting Tibet and Xinjiang nationalist movements diplomatically. India may also abandon the policy of One China and may enhance its relations with Taiwan.

At present China has limited options it cannot go for a full-scale war by using long range artillery as in that case India will also retaliate and few other countries which have animosity with China may help India overtly or covertly

The other option for Beijing is to negotiate with India and withdraw its forces honourably as Jinping has to show his countrymen that China emerged victorious. It is the reason that China is negotiating at all levels. There were negotiations at brigade commander and corps commander level, telephonic conversations between foreign ministers and National Security Advisors (NSA). Few days ago defence ministers and foreign ministers of both the countries also negotiated at Moscow. In all the meetings Chinese promised to withdraw but never fulfilled their promises.

Currently China is in a difficult situation as its forces cannot retreat without any perceptible gain as it will further damage the image of president Xi Jinping. Indian forces are not only giving tough fight but insisting that PLA must return to April position. Indian forces also cannot give any concession to PLA as it will downgrade the strong image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. China cannot afford an all-out war hence it may opt either for a long standoff or a limited war to retain its position of superior power. It may also try to persuade Pakistan to attack India and Islamabad which wants to take revenge from New Delhi of the dissection of 1971 may agree to help its all-weather friend. Pakistan will also try to instruct its agents in Kashmir to disturb the law and order situation. Hence India must prepare for limited war with its two neighbours and disturbances in Kashmir.

At present Indian economy is also going down because of Coronavirus pandemic hence India should also try to solve the issue amicably.

-Jai Kumar Verma is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also a member of USI and MP-IDSA. The views expressed in the article are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda

Raksha ANIRVEDA

www.raksha-anirveda.com

Is Bangladesh Going in the Lap of China?

Although after Pakistan, in South Asia, Bangladesh received maximum investments from China and several analysts claim that Dhaka is falling in a debt trap of Beijing. Notwithstanding, it is believed that Dhaka will not work against the interests of New Delhi

September 5, 2020EditorOpinion

By Jai Kumar Verma

Source: ORF

China which considers India as nascent challenger in the region slowly but steadily trying to win over latter’s neighbours. Pakistan which already lost Gwadar seaport, and is in the grip of China published a map one day before the first anniversary of the defanging of article 370. The political map included Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) as part of Pakistan.

Nepal also on the behest of China issued a map in which Indian areas including Limpiadhura, Lipulek and Kalapani were shown as part of Nepal. The critics mention that Rajapaksa government of Sri Lanka is pro-China and several important projects are going to Chinese companies.

Beijing assessed that at present the relations between Dhaka and New Delhi have deteriorated as Bangladesh government is against India’s National Register of Citizens (NRC) and The Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 which gives eligibility for Indian citizenship to illegal migrants belong to the communities of Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan but excludes Muslims.

Dhaka feels that Indian security agencies will push the illegal Bangladeshis in the country and in future unemployed Bangladeshis will not able to infiltrate in India. Sheikh Hasina had also not given time to meet Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka for about four months.

Chinese companies successfully acquired important projects including development of a smart city near Dhaka and construction of airport in Sylhet, a city in eastern Bangladesh. Recently China agreed to fund projects of more than US$6 billion while it was already working on the infrastructure projects worth US$10 billion.

Chinese companies successfully acquired important projects including development of a smart city near Dhaka and construction of airport in Sylhet, a city in eastern Bangladesh. Recently China agreed to fund projects of more than US$6 billion while it was already working on the infrastructure projects worth US$10 billion

The defence relations between China and Bangladesh are also enhancing these days. Beijing is supplying tanks, fighter jets, submarines, frigates and other equipment to Bangladesh. Both the countries have signed a Defence Cooperation Agreement in 2002.

In a calculated move to win over Bangladesh, China exempted 97 per cent of Bangladesh exports from duty. Chinese President Xi Jinping granted this concession during a telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Now 8,256 Bangladeshi articles have become duty-free.

In 2016 when Xi Jinping visited Bangladesh, he promised an investment of US$25 billion. In 2019 Bangladesh also awarded contract to a Chinese firm to construct renewable energy projects which can produce 500 megawatts of power by 2023.

China is also assisting Bangladesh as it is an important country for the success of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is a leading project of Xi Jinping. According to a rough estimate, China promised investments worth US$38 billion under BRI related projects in Bangladesh.

The Indian security agencies are of the view that once China gets stronghold in Bangladesh, Chinese intelligence agency Ministry of State Security (MSS) will also involve Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).

It may be noted here that the sinister ISI since beginning has used East Pakistan and later Bangladesh for fomenting trouble in India. There are reports that in the past Pakistan had terrorist training camps in Bangladesh where it was training insurgents of diverse terrorist outfits from the north eastern states of India.

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan called Sheikh Hasina in July 2020 and desired to have cordial relations between both the countries. Pakistani High Commissioner in Bangladesh also met Abul Kalam Abdul Momen, Bangladeshi Minister of Foreign Affairs, just before Imran Khan called Sheikh Hasina. Pakistani High Commissioner also pleaded for stronger relations between both the countries on the basis of religion and culture.

Bangladesh claims that Indian implementation of projects is awfully slow, and it is an important reason that the neighbouring countries are leaning more towards China. Reliance Power and Adani Group declared construction of power projects, but they are still in initial stages. Projects like Akhaura-Agartala rail link, India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline, inland water ways all are extremely sluggish and behind schedule. Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicles Agreement is also not rolling. The sharing of water of Teesta river is an antagonistic issue and is not resolved.

Now China has agreed for extensive dredging of Teesta river and its tributaries, building of dams, stopping of erosion and reclamation of land. Although Chinese project in Teesta river will not directly affect India but it will enhance Chinese image in Bangladesh as it will be a big engineering achievement. It will also indicate that several states in India are suffering from flood and water shortage and government is unable to take any action.

The sharing of Teesta river water between India and Bangladesh is an antagonistic issue and is not resolved. Now China has agreed for extensive dredging of Teesta river and its tributaries, building of dams, stopping of erosion and reclamation of land. Although Chinese project in Teesta river will not directly affect India but it will enhance Chinese image in Bangladesh

From Bangladesh side, Sheikh Hasina paid a visit to China in July 2019 where bilateral trade was the main agenda of the Bangladeshi PM’s visit. Several agreements were also signed during the visit. China also promised the loan of US$1.7 billion to improve power sector.

Chinese companies also adopt underhand techniques. Dhaka-Sylhet highway project which was worth US$1.6 billion was cancelled by Bangladesh authorities as the Chinese contractor tried to bribe the Bangladeshi officials. China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) which also constructed Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka was blacklisted by Bangladesh.

Analysts remark that Chinese companies oust the competitors from the market by using unjust ways. It is also mentioned that Chinese companies also obtain contracts through lower bids but later change the terms and conditions of the contract, out of which they charge more for spare parts.

After Pakistan, in South Asia, Bangladesh received maximum investments from China, nevertheless several analysts claim that Dhaka is falling in a Chinese debt trap. They give the example of Sri Lanka as it had to give Hambantota port on 99 years lease to China because of non-payment of loan.

Critics also mention that Myanmar uprooted Rohingya Muslims from the country by using Chinese weapons, and China is still supporting Myanmar militarily without understanding the problems Bangladesh is facing because of Rohingya refugees.

However, if we talk of the relations between India and Bangladesh, they are historically cordial. India extended three lines of credit for the development of infrastructure projects in railways, roads, shipping etc. New Delhi also gave 10 diesel locomotives to Dhaka recently.

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla paid two successful visits to Dhaka. In the recent visit in August 2020 several bilateral issues were discussed including the cooperation over the Coronavirus vaccine. There is a good synergy between both the prime ministers, and Modi understands that cordial relation with Bangladesh is essential for the development of north eastern states.

Besides Bengali relationship, India should also cultivate Tamil and Telugu population in Bangladesh which is controlling the textile industry in the country. Medical tourism is also increasing, and Bangladeshi students are also coming to India for studies.

There is always a vast difference between the announcement of Chinese investment and the real amount invested by Beijing. On the other hand, India’s loan terms and conditions are much better and there is no difference between announcement and actual delivery.

India’s relations with its neighbours including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Maldives are quite cordial. Nepal has become difficult during the prime ministership of KP Sharma Oli, while India’s relations with Afghan government as well as with Taliban are quite cordial.

From Bangladesh side, Sheikh Hasina paid a visit to China in July 2019 where bilateral trade was the main agenda of the Bangladeshi PM’s visit. Several agreements were also signed during the visit. China also promised the loan of US$1.7 billion to improve power sector

India is receiving overwhelming support from several countries including the United States, Australia, Japan, Vietnam, France, Russia and European Union during the hostilities with China. Few countries are vocal while some countries are supporting silently.

Bangladesh is aware of Chinese underhand practices and it will not embitter its relations with India. It may also be possible that Dhaka may try to extract some more favours from India to counter its closeness with Beijing. Few analysts also claim that Sheikh Hasina wants to encash anti-India sentiments in the country by showing closeness with China.

Bangladesh is a sovereign nation and has cordial relations with India and although it is accepting assistance from China in the development of infrastructure in the country, but it will not affect India Bangladesh relationship and Dhaka will not work against the interests of New Delhi.

-Jai Kumar Verma is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also a member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda

Aviation & Defence Universe

WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM

Chinese Intelligence Agency MSS Calls The Shots For Nepal’s PM KPS Oli

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The protector with the protected

·        China’s Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi is trying to save Oli’s government

By Jai Kumar Verma              

New Delhi. 12 July 2020. Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi is currently extremely busy trying to save Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government in Kathmandu. She is meeting Nepalese leaders of diverse factions of Communist Party of Nepal, to prevent Oli’s government from toppling.

K.P. Sharma Oli first served as Prime Minster from 11 October 2015 to 3 August 2016 and then again from 15 February 2018, after Communist Party of Nepal (UML) emerged as the largest party in the elections and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) agreed to support Oli’s candidature. Oli has the unstinting support of Ministry of State Security (MSS) the powerful intelligence agency of People’s Republic of China. MSS which is one of the most secretive intelligence organisation in the world handles both counterintelligence as well as foreign intelligence. MSS has cultivated long-term assets in different factions of Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) and at other strategic places.

Hou Yanqi met former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ recently at his residence. Dahal was twice prime minister of Nepal and is an important leader of Nepal Communist Party. He has challenged Oli’s leadership. When she reached his residence Ghanshyam Bhusal Agriculture Minister and Yogesh Bhattarai Minister for Tourism and Civil Aviation were present however, she waited and after their departure she had “one-on-one” meeting with Prachanda for about 50 minutes. In the meeting both discussed how to resolve the present crisis and maintain the unity of the party.

She had closed door, one-on-one meetings with several top leaders of Nepal including President Bidhya Devi Bhandari, Prime Minister Oli, former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and other important CPN leaders. Nepal Foreign Ministry officials complained that Chinese ambassador is breaking the diplomatic protocol. According to protocol a foreign ministry official must be present while ambassador of a foreign country is meeting the President. Madhav Kumar Nepal also mentioned that the non-stop meetings of Chinese ambassador with various Nepalese leadership indicates that China is interfering in the internal matter of the country.      

Prachanda and others are pressing for Oli’s resignation from prime ministership as well as from the party’s Chairmanship. Oli has threatened to split the party, but Hou knows in case party is divided Oli will lose majority and he will not able to continue as prime minister. China wants to retain Oli as he is totally anti-India and follows the dictates of China. In Oli’s first stint as prime minister the relations between India and Nepal became all-time low. Oli won the latest elections on anti-India rhetoric.

In May 2020 when the world was in a lockdown, Ambassador Hou met several party leaders and other bigwigs and was able to retain the unity in CPN and saved Oli. Prachanda and Oli also had six rounds of talks, but they could not reach on any agreement. Meanwhile Oli also spread rumours amidst the ministers that Prachanda is trying to impeach the President Bidya Devi Bhandari and conveniently mentioned this to President Bhandari, so that her followers support him against Prachanda. Oli realising that things are getting tough for him approached the Nepali Congress but failed. He also met Chief of Army Staff of Nepal Army understanding that only Chinese assistance is not enough.

The crucial meeting of the Nepal Communist Party’s 45 member Standing Committee is getting postponed repeatedly and Oli knows that he lost the majority. Oli to save himself decided to blame India for the trouble in Nepal which also helped Beijing.    

India and Nepal share a 1,800 km long open border and the major portion of the border is demarcated however there is dispute on some segments of the border. Nevertheless, a vital controversy emerged when Rajnath Singh Defence Minister of India inaugurated a 80 km- long strategically important road which links Dharchula in India via Lipulekh pass to the Kailash- Mansarovar area in the Tibet plateau region. The Lipulekh pass is near Nepal but is not in Nepal. The road is also used by Hindu and Buddhist pilgrims to reach Mount Kailash.

Nepal government immediately protested and mentioned that the road passes from Nepalese territory and it was built without diplomatic negotiations. Oli government also passed a Constitution Amendment Bill which included Indian territories Limpiadhura, Lipulek and Kalapani in Nepal.  Oli in collaboration with MSS organised widespread public protests against India and unveiled a new map in May 2020 which included Indian territories of Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limliyadhura. The map was approved by parliament and also, by president in June 2020.

The Government of Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli is passing from the most difficult internal political crisis, hence he grabbed the opportunity and diverted the attention of masses from anti-government protests to anti-India demonstrations. Oli mustered public opinion and Nepal immediately deployed police force in the region, summoned Indian Ambassador in Kathmandu and brought constitutional amendment. India simply mentioned to resolve the issue through diplomatic negotiations but after the COVID-19 crisis is over. The territory claimed by Nepal is under Indian occupation from 60 years or more and the construction of road took few years, but Kathmandu never objected it hence the statement of India’s Chief of Army Staff that Nepal brought this issue “at the behest” of a third party appears to be true. In 2015 China recognised India’s sovereignty in the area but at this time it instigated Nepal to protest against India. 

Prime Minister Oli is close to Beijing and Chinese influence in Nepal has increased during his tenure. In past when he was in trouble and about to be ousted from Prime Ministership, Chinese intelligence agency Ministry of State Security (MSS) came to his rescue and called a meeting of various factions of Communist Party of Nepal and pressed them to retain Oli as Prime Minister. 

The present road existed before and was used by the pilgrims and local residents of the area and Nepal never objected hence India never expected that Nepal will object so vehemently. India converted the unmetaled track into a strategic road through which Indian forces can reach to Tibet plateau at the earliest, which was not liked by China hence it instigated Nepal to raise the issue so forcefully. Not only this India released the political map in November 2019 after defanging of Article 370 and partitioning J&K in two union territories. It was also against Chinese interest hence Prime Minister Oli raised the issue on Chinese bidding.

Oli is continuing with anti-India measures and it stopped transmission of all Indian private channels except Doordarshan. Oli government claimed that private channels are criticising Oli government. Oli is so indebted to China that when Chinese forces captured some Nepalese villages his government had not objected. As China’s influence is increasing in Nepal it is trying to mitigate India’s influence in the country. Nepali leaders also play China card to have better deal and attention of India.

Both India and Nepal should chalk out a detailed plan so that the bilateral relations remain cordial and friendly. India should stop thinking about the right of first refusal and should not consider Nepal as its satellite as the latter has adopted the policy of diversification so that its dependence on India reduces. China is increasing its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) hence India must change its mindset towards Nepal. India should try to analyse and if feasible to accept the report submitted by the Eminent Persons Group which was prepared by the persons of both the countries and submitted in 2018.

Both Modi and Oli interacted several times and India also stressed on interdependence and connectivity. Several important projects including inland waterway navigation, cross border pipeline for petroleum products, rail and road links were initiated. India is observing silence on the present crisis as Oli will try to befuddle India’s initiative to generate more anti-India feelings. Oli knows that Nepal can never force India to surrender the territories claimed by Nepal hence raising anti-India issue has become counter-productive.

Nepal is sandwiched between two Asian superpowers hence it must be careful and should try to resolve the disputes through diplomatic channels. It should also consider that being a landlocked country it has to depend on India for several items. It will be difficult for China to become India’s substitute because of geographical compulsions hence Oli government should not try to earn political capital by arousing anti-India sentiments. Oli should also remember that only MSS will not able to save his government all the time and he must maintain cordial relations with both India and China.

Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com

SOUTH ASIA MONITOR

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India of 2020 is different from the India of 1962

In the current scenario, although India being a peaceful country does not want war with anyone, especially with China, India has developed infrastructure at the borders, strengthened its defence forces and has strategic relations with several countries, writes Jai Kumar Verma for South Asia Monitor 

 By Jai Kumar Verma Jun 27, 2020

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China is under international pressure because of several reasons, including the spread of coronavirus.  Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has demanded an investigation about the origin of the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic which infected more than five million people in the world. US President Donald Trump also charged China that it could have done more to avert the spread of the disease. The tension between the US and China is rising on trade issues, problems in the South China Sea are also enhancing. Besides China, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei all have competing claims in the area. 

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is issuing anti-China statements and France has rejected Chinese warning and mentioned that it will sell arms to Taiwan as it is part of existing agreements and China should concentrate on fighting COVID-19. The situation in Hong Kong is still volatile and China is not able to quell the anti-Beijing demonstrations and agitations.  

Besides international pressure, Chinese President Xi Jinping is also facing internal dissension and opposition from several quarters. The opposition, which started from academic circles, soon spread among the political and business class. People are opposed to March 2018 resolution which permitted Xi and others to continue on their posts indefinitely. People feel it is the beginning of ‘one-man rule’, though it is not said so openly. People are also critical of mishandling of spread of coronavirus and the rise of unemployment in the country. 

President Xi was also unhappy by India’s moves. Firstly, when two important members of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) parliamentarians attended the virtual swearing-in ceremony of Taiwan’s President along with 92 celebrities, including US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, on May 24, 2020. Again, on June 2, when Trump called Prime Minister Narendra Modi, not only did he invite Modi to attend the G-7 summit but also discussed the standoff with China at the Galwan Valey. Modi’s virtual bilateral meeting with Australian PM Morrison on June 4 also didn’t go down well with China.  At present relations between China and Australia are tense as the latter is questioning the spread of the coronavirus and wants a global impartial probe into its origin. 

China unhappy at India's border infrastructure

However, the biggest reason for Chinese invasion was that India, which had for decades not developed infrastructure on the border areas, was now building strategic roads, bridges, airstrips etc. China which had already developed infrastructure was resisting infrastructure development by India. Recently Border Road Organisation (BRO) had constructed 255 km long Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road near the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

In view of the above, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) trespassed at Pangong Lake, Galwan Nala and Sirijap Range areas, which had remained peaceful in the past. The PLA impinged the LAC, obstructed Indian patrol,  and destroyed the bridges on Galwan river. There were border skirmishes as well as physical clashes on May 5, 6 and 11. However, on the night of June 15, Colonel Santosh Babu, Commanding Officer (CO)  of 16 Bihar Regiment, went to check whether Chinese were returning to their original positions as per the agreement. The Chinese attacked the CO and his party with roads, sticks fitted with barbed wire at Galwan valley. Indian forces retaliated and in the violent clash, 20 Indian soldiers including the CO were killed but the valiant jawans of 16 Bihar killed an unspecified number of Chinese soldiers including their CO. 

The second round of Lt. General-level talks were held at Moldo, in Chinese territory, on June 22 in which 14 Corps Commander Lt. Gen Harinder Singh demanded immediate withdrawal of Chinese troops to the position of May 2. Although the Chinese have not entered the Indian territory but occupied the area in between where even the patrolling is also not done. India presses that no army should occupy the vacant area. The promises the Chinese made in the previous meeting held on May 6 was not fulfilled by the PLA. China is also trying to occupy full Pangong Lake although at present about 45 km are with India.

India prepared for long standoff

The Indian government has given a free hand to Indian defence forces and the army has already sent few thousand soldiers to forward locations from reserve areas and fresh troops are sent to reserve areas so that they can be acclimatized. The Indian Air Force has also deputed Sukhoi 30 MKI, Jaguar, Mirage 2000 aircraft as well as Apache attack helicopters. India is prepared for a long standoff as it appears that both sides do not want war. 

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh went to Moscow on a three-day visit on June 22. Though the ostensible reason was to attend the 75th Victory Day Parade, the 75th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in the Second World War, the real purpose of the visit was to ensure the supply of spare parts of aircraft and other armaments. Russia is India’s biggest supplier of defence equipment, including the S-400 missile defence system. 

China intruded and was using the same language it used when it attacked India in 1962 with the main objective of humiliating India and its first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru. However, it failed to realise that India of 2020 is different from India of 1962. In 1962, the Indian Army was least prepared for a war with China to whom then India’s Defence Minister V. K. Krishna Menon thought of as a close friend. In the current scenario, although India being a peaceful country does not want war with anyone, especially with China, India has developed infrastructure at the borders, strengthened its defence forces and has strategic relations with several countries. According to an internal assessment, in case of war with China, the US, Japan, Australia and Vietnam will favour India, while Pakistan and North Korea will support China. Russia, Europe and the UK will remain neutral.  

Now, China has realised the futility of invading India and it wants to retreat honourably. India also does not want war and will give China an opportunity for peaceful retrieval. Once both the forces retreat India must develop more infrastructure at borders as China is an expansionist country and an unpredictable neighbour.   

(The writer is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of USI and IDSA. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

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WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM

Is China Trying To Give India A Geopolitical Migraine?

·        PLA crosses LAC & India reacts

·        China tries to divert world attention from COVID-19

·        Finally adapts diplomacy to continue with the good neighbour act

File pic

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 31 May 2020. Pangong Lake , Galwan Nala and SirijapRange are names which never blew fuses on Sino-Indian borders but have for the last one month become cynosure of world eyes.

 The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) intruded the LAC, interrupted Indian patrolling, demolished Indian posts and destroyed the bridges on Galwan Nala at Chang-Chenmo. The PLA and Indian soldiers had physical brawls at Sirijap and other places on May 5, 6 and 11. In Ladakh out of 857 sq KMs India China border only 368 KMs are International Border while remaining 489 sq KM is LAC. Not only this the Sirijap range on the northern bank of the lake is most troublesome because of 1 to 8 “finger series”.

And this has not scared India off. It has not suspended the construction work near the borders. The Border Road Organisation (BRO) is also constructing roads, bridges and culverts in the border areas which is resented by PLA. It may be an important reason of present PLA incursions at the border areas. The BRO after completion of 255 KMs long all weather Darbuk–Shyok-DBO Road in eastern Ladakh near Line of Actual Control, is also developing infrastructure at other places. PLA wanted to restrain India from developing infrastructure in Galwan area.

Not only the Indian soldiers who are kept in reserve areas are deployed to match the Chinese troops but the reserve is being filled by fresh troops as acclimatisation is required in these areas which is the height of more than 14,000 feet. India is prepared for a long standoff.  But India has not retaliated at all by doing the tit for tat.

All of us heard Anurag Srivastava the Indian Ministry of External Affairs stating, “Any suggestion that Indian troops had undertaken activity across the Line of Actual Control in the western sector or the Sikkim sector is not accurate. Indian troops are fully familiar with the alignment of the Line of Actual Control in the India-China border areas and abide by it scrupulously. All Indian activities are entirely on the Indian side of the LAC. In fact, it is the Chinese side that has recently undertaken activity hindering India’s normal patrolling patterns. Indian side has always taken a very responsible approach towards border management.”

In the present incursion 5,000 PLA troops took position near LAC and they selected Galwan river valley which is a new area and more or less not contentious. This time Chinese are not returning early as they have pitched tents and made incursions at more than one location. They are also building bunkers in the area. This time their action is more aggressive, and several rounds of talks have failed to resolve the dispute. The Indian army has to follow the standing instructions not to use the force to eject the PLA troops. Chinese strength is three times more than Indian force, nevertheless the ratio is in favour of India partially it is a defensive force and partly because of its position in the area. India was building a bridge and a road in the area which Chinese objected.

“At the same time, we are deeply committed to ensuring India’s sovereignty and security. The Indian troops strictly follow the procedures laid down in various bilateral agreements and protocols to resolve any situations which may arise due to difference in perception of the LAC. The two sides have established mechanisms to resolve such situations peacefully through dialogue. Both sides remain engaged with each other to address any immediate issues. In accordance with the consensus reached in Chennai, Indian side remains firmly committed to work for the common objective of maintenance of peace and tranquility in border areas. This is an essential prerequisite to the further development of India-China bilateral relations,” Srivastava added.

Chinese have developed massive infrastructure in the area and claim more areas. China wants to snatch the lake at Lukung area and some other strategic areas so that India’s hold on Siachen can be endangered. China might also be ogling the waters of the Shyok, Galwan and Chang-Chenmo rivers and may like to divert it to waterless Aksai Chin.

The statement also stated, “India and China, attach utmost importance to maintenance of peace and tranquility in all areas of India-China border regions. Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, in their informal summits in Wuhan in 2018, and in Chennai in 2019, had reaffirmed, that both sides will continue to make efforts to ensure peace and tranquility in the border areas. This is essential for the overall development of the bilateral relations. The two leaders had also directed the militaries to earnestly implement various confidence-building measures agreed upon between the two sides, including, the principle of mutual and equal security and strengthen existing institutional arrangements and information sharing mechanisms to prevent incidents in border regions. As a result, India-China border has largely been peaceful. Occasionally, however, on account of difference in perception of the alignment of LAC, situations have arisen on the ground that could have been avoided if, we had a common perception of the LAC. The two sides have established mechanisms to resolve such situations as and when they arise, including, border personnel meeting, flag meetings, and working mechanism for consultation and coordination on India-China border affairs, as well as diplomatic channels. The Indian side remains committed to the objective of maintaining peace and tranquillity in the India-China border areas. So, this is the statement which is on the incidents on LAC.”

These PLA incursions are not only routine border skirmishes but also results of a troubled Chinese resentment to India defanging Article 370 and abrogating Article 35A. The dragon also objected when India declared Ladakh as an Union territory and mentioned India’s move as “unacceptable” and also took the issue to UNSC. India rightly mentioned that it was an internal matter of India and it has no connection with LAC or with the external boundaries of the country.

China slowly but steadily has not only developed the massive infrastructure at the borders but also gained control over parts of disputed areas since 1980s. The areas include 45 KMs long Skakjung pastureland in Demchok-Kuyul sector, Nagtsang in 1984, Nakung in 1991 and Lungma-Serding in1992. The Shyam Saran Report of 2013 also mentioned that PLA has already occupied 640 sq KMs of land illegally.

But suddenly China has taken a very diplomatic view of the crisis it has created at its borders with India. Chinese Ambassador to India Sun Weidong  stated that China and India should enhance the mutual trust and should not allow the differences to overshadow the bilateral ties, while speaking at an online interactive session organised by Confederation of young Leaders (CYL)recently. He reiterated that  both China and India should resolve their differences through negotiations and must understand that they are no threat to one another.

 Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian said, “China’s position on the China-India boundary question is consistent and clear. We follow in real earnest the important consensus reached between leaders of the two sides, strictly abide by relevant bilateral agreements, and stay committed to upholding national territorial sovereignty and security as well as maintaining peace and stability in the China-India border areas. Currently the overall situation along the border is stable and controllable. There are full-fledged mechanisms on border-related issues and communication channels between the two countries. We are fully capable of properly resolving any issue between us through dialogue and consultation. There is no need for a third party to intervene.”  

This was surely motivated by US President Donald Trump’s tweet, “We have informed both India and China that the United States is ready, willing and able to mediate or arbitrate their now raging border dispute”. India also made it clear that although it has close relations with U.S. but it will like to solve the issue between itself and China bilaterally.

The Chinese Spokesperson added, “China’s position on the boundary issue is consistent and clear. We have been earnestly implementing the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, strictly abiding by the relevant agreements signed by the two countries and committed to safeguarding China’s territorial sovereignty and security as well as peace and stability in the China-India border areas. At present, the overall situation in the China-India border areas is stable and controllable. On border-related issues, there are sound mechanisms and channels of communication between China and India, and the two sides are capable of properly resolving relevant issues through dialogue and consultation. China and India have communication on the boundary question via existing mechanisms and diplomatic channels, including those between the border troops on the ground and between the diplomatic departments and embassies of the two countries. ”

The statements of spokesman of Chinese Foreign Ministry and Chinese ambassador clearly indicate that China also does not want war with India. These intrusions are only to divert the world attention from its creation of the biggest health crisis the world is facing today and to give a message to New Delhi that it should not join anti-China lobby be it its issue of WHA for COVID-19, or Taiwan or Hong Kong. But this big brother bossy attitude cannot be taken lying down. It cannot be aggressive one day and softly diplomatic the next day. India will definitely not take this stand lying down. This is India of 2020 and not 1962. The world holds India in high esteem and China as a perpetrator of the global economic fall down and lockdown. And China knows that if it extends its activities against India to a point of no return, the world will be seen behind India.

As far as India is concerned it is a peaceful country and there is no question of initiating any war-like situation. However, India must remain prepared for more intrusions as China is an expansionist country and will try to bulldoze its way into Indian territory again. India should continue developing the infrastructure and strengthen its defence forces at the LAC and international borders. No reason to get disturbed by this migraine given by China, but this should be considered as a motivation to keep our side of the border as state-of-the-art as theirs.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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China instigated Nepal against India, planning more skirmishes to corner New Delhi

China feels that India is also acting against it; hence, it is creating troubles for India. Before the protest from Nepal, it instigated Pakistan, writes Jai Kumar Verma for South Asia Monitor

 By Jai Kumar Verma May 27, 2020

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India and Nepal share 1,690 km long open and peaceful border and 97 percent of the border between both the countries are demarcated. However the areas in Kalapani and Susta are not marked. Hence on May 11, 2020, Kathmandu summoned Indian Ambassador to Nepal Vinay Kwatra and handed over a diplomatic note to protest against building of a road which connects Lipulekh pass and Pithoragarh. The road which was inaugurated by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on May 8 is 80 km long and it touches the India-China-Nepal tri-junction. The road will be helpful to the troops deputed on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on the India-China borders and will also be beneficial to the pilgrims of Kailash Mansarovar. 

The Lipulekh pass is near Kalapani, which is a disputed territory between India and Nepal. However, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a statement on May 9, mentioning, that “the recently inaugurated road section in Pithoragarh district in the state of Uttarakhand lies completely within the territory of India. The road follows the pre-existing route used by the pilgrims of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. Under the present project, the same road has been made pliable for the ease and convenience of pilgrims, locals and traders.” But, Nepal claimed that the road is constructed on Nepalese territory and India’s action is “unilateral”.

Meanwhile, Indian Army chief, General Manoj Mukund Naravane without naming China hinted that Nepal might be protesting on the behest of someone else. General Naravane was replying to questions after a talk at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses on May 15. He further stated that there is no dispute on the land, and it is difficult to understand why Nepal is protesting. The army chief made it clear that there is no relation between the current clashes between Indian and Chinese armies at North Sikkim and Eastern Ladakh with Nepalese protest.

However, Nepal strongly refuted the charges that Nepal is protesting on behest of China. Nepalese Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali stated while giving an interview to an Indian TV network that Nepal will never allow another country to interfere in its internal matters. He further stated that although Nepal has cordial relations with China, it pursues a neutral foreign policy and it has cordial relations with both the neighbours. Here it is interesting to note that both India and China had bilateral agreement on the road link which Nepal claims as its territory.

Nepalese Foreign Minister summoned the Indian envoy and lodged a strong protest. The minister mentioned that India’s unilateral decision is contrary to the understanding between both the countries. Nepal was trying to have a meeting after India published a map in November 2019 and voiced its objections. However, India had not given dates for the meeting. The timings of the inauguration of the road is also questionable as Nepal is fighting from coronavirus and the opposition parties got an important point to embarrass Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli, who is under immense pressure from the opposition.

A tough power struggle is going on between Pushpa Kamal Dahal, known as Prachanda, and Prime Minister Oli. Prachanda is the Chairman of Nepal Communist Party and twice prime minister of Nepal. According to media reports, Oli is in trouble as several senior party members may ask him to resign. However, Chinese intelligence agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS) is trying to ensure that the present government continues.

Nepal is protesting and the public is agitating since India updated the map on November 2, 2019, in which Kalapani was shown as an Indian territory. Nepal claims it as its area. The Nepal government deployed Armed Police Force (APF) at Lipulekh after a week India inaugurated the road. Now the APF is regularly patrolling the area. The Nepalese public is demanding that the prime minister should talk to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and resolve this issue. Nepalese foreign ministry has issued a press note in which it mentioned that the eastern area (Lipulekh, Kalapani, Limpiyadhura) of Mahakali river is Nepalese territory. Several Nepalese members of parliament had demanded that Nepal should publish its own map of the area in which these areas are shown as Nepalese territory.

On May 20, the Nepal government officially issued a new map that showed Lipulekh, Kalapani, and Limpiyadhura under its territory. The development had come a day after Nepal prime minister had declared in the Parliament that the Kalapani area belonged 'indisputably' to Nepal and his government will wrest control of it. In its reply to Nepal unveiling its new political map, India said such artificial enlargement of territorial claims by Nepal will not be acceptable to it and asked the neighbouring country to refrain from "unjustified cartographic assertion." "This unilateral act is not based on historical facts and evidence. It is contrary to the bilateral understanding to resolve the outstanding boundary issues through diplomatic dialogue," External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Anurag Srivastava said. "Such artificial enlargement of territorial claims will not be accepted by India.” "Nepal is well aware of India’s consistent position on this matter and we urge the government of Nepal to refrain from such unjustified cartographic assertion and respect India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," Srivastava said.

Internationally, at present, China is facing trouble as several countries are alleging that either China is responsible for the spread of coronavirus or it has not taken due precautions to prevent it from becoming a big pandemic by which the whole world is now suffering. Companies of several countries are planning to relocate from China and few countries have slashed the purchases from China. US President Donald Trump is regularly issuing statements against China and trade war between both the countries is yet to be resolved. China feels that India is also acting against it; hence, it is creating troubles for India. 

Before the protest from Nepal, it instigated Pakistan. On April 30, Pakistan Supreme Court permitted the government to hold general elections in Gilgit and Baltistan, which is part of Kashmir and illegally occupied by Pakistan. The court also permitted the formation of a caretaker government during the intervening period. Indian and Chinese troops also clashed at Line of Actual Control (LAC) on May 5 and 9.

Hence, the possibility that China opt for some more skirmishes with India to divert the world's attention cannot be ruled out.    

(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of USI and IDSA. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at jai_pushpa@hotmail.com)

Aviation & Defence Universe

WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM 

Nepal’s Anti-India Protest: Wooing China By Playing The Domestic Card

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 22 May 2020. Rarely in the recent past has India’s focus on disturbed bilateral ties shifted from China and Pakistan. But in the last fortnight it is our friend in all times Nepal which is in spotlight and has deviated India from it’s centre of attention as Nepal has taken an adversarial stand and released a controversial map showing Indian territories of Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura in Uttaranchal as its own. But the point to ponder is that why has Nepal created this cartographic deviation?

It definitely seems to be a reaction to the eighty kilometres long newly constructed link road which connects Pithoragarh with Lipulekh Pass, which is a strategic road which touches the India-China-Nepal trijunction and was inaugurated by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on 8 May. The newly constructed road will be beneficial to the Indian security force personnel posted at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and will also be advantageous for the travellers of Kailash Man Sarovar. Three days after the inauguration of the road, Nepal Foreign Office summoned Indian ambassador on 11 May and protested through a diplomatic note against the construction of this road.

The Foreign Ministry of Nepal issued a strong message against the inauguration of the road and stated that it was a breach of an agreement between both the countries. The statement also mentioned that “This unilateral act runs against the understanding reached between the two countries including at the level of Prime Ministers that a solution to boundary issues would be sought through negotiation”. The statement referred to  the agreement between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Nepalese Prime Minister Sushil Koirala in 2014 where it was mentioned that all outstanding boundary issues would be sorted out by Foreign Secretaries.

India has responded to the revised map of Nepal strongly the same day and the Ministry of External Affairs official spokesperson Anurag Srivastava said, ” the Government of Nepal has released a revised official map of Nepal today that includes parts of Indian territory. This unilateral act is not based on historical facts and evidence. It is contrary to the bilateral understanding to resolve the outstanding boundary issues through diplomatic dialogue. Such artificial enlargement of territorial claims will not be accepted by India. Nepal is well aware of India’s consistent position on this matter and we urge the Government of Nepal to refrain from such unjustified cartographic assertion and respect India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We hope that the Nepalese leadership will create a positive atmosphere for diplomatic dialogue to resolve the outstanding boundary issues.”

The following day Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) also issued a statement mentioning that the current road is within the territory of India. It stated, “The road follows the pre-existing route used by the pilgrims of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. Under the present project, the same road has been made pliable for the ease and convenience of pilgrims, locals and traders. India is committed to resolving outstanding boundary issues through diplomatic dialogue and in the spirit of our close and friendly bilateral relations with Nepal”.

It may be recalled that in Nepal Prime Minister K.P.Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” are both co-chairmen of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), issued separate statements but mentioned that building the road when the world is fighting from coronavirus is “deplorable” and pleaded that both India and Nepal should solve the issue. Few student unions especially affiliated to ruling Nepal Communist Party including All Nepal National Free Students Union (ANNFSU) protested outside Indian Embassy in Kathmandu regarding the building of the new road.

Nepal proclaims that Kalapani is integral part of their Darchula Jilla in the Sudurpashchim Pradesh , one of the seven provinces established by the new constitution of Nepal which was adopted on 20 September 2015. It borders the Tibet Autonomous Region of China to the north, Karnali Pradesh and Province No. 5 to the east, and the Indian states of Uttarakhand to the west and Uttar Pradesh to the south. Initially known as Province No. 7, the newly elected Provincial Assembly adopted Sudurpashchim Pradesh as the permanent name for the province in September 2018. The province is coterminous with the former Far-Western Development Region, Nepal.

India’s claim to  Kalapani dates back to British Era. The administrative and revenue records dating back to 1830s (available with the UP state government), show that Kalapani area has traditionally been administered as part of Pithoragarh district. Vide Article 5 of the Segauli Treaty (1816), Nepal had renounced all claims to areas ‘lying west of the river Kali’. The Kali (now Mahakali) river thus evolved into a well-identified border demarcation in the west.

Significantly, British India conducted the first regular surveys of the upper reaches of the river Kali, in the 1870s. A map of 1879 vintage shows the whole Kalapani area as part of India .

For the first time on May 13 Nepal deployed 25 soldiers of Armed Police Force (APF) near Kalapani at Chhangru and they are regularly patrolling the area.

Nepal strongly refuted Indian army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane’s comment that Nepal might be protesting on behest of someone else. He made it clear that there is no dispute on the land hence the reason of the protest of Nepal is difficult to comprehend. Nepalese Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali mentioned that Nepal will never accept the intrusion of any other country in the internal matter of Nepal. The Himalayan Kingdom has friendly relations with both China and India, but it follows a non-aligned foreign policy.

At present Prime Minister Oli is facing trouble from Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda as several important leaders of the Communist Party are supporting Prachanda. Oli has support of China and its intelligence agency Ministry of State Security (MSS) which is very active in Nepal is also clandestinely supporting Oli. The construction and inauguration of road is being exploited by opposition parties as well as by Prachanda. On the other hand, Oli is also using the issue of new road construction to enhance anti-India feelings.

On 18 May China made it clear that “Kalapani is an issue between Nepal and India” but facts indicate that Nepal raised this issue on behest of China. Lipulekh Pass in Kalapani is strategically important as India keeps a watch on Chinese movements from here. The Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) maintains a post at Kalapani. China is creating tension between India and Nepal as at present the relations between China and Nepal are very cordial. Oli is also trying to benefit from rising anti-India sentiments.

The present road is a result of an agreement between India and China in 2015 as it was decided to develop border post of Lipulekh Pass into a trading post between China and India. Hence China’s instigation to Nepal is with malafide intentions. Before Nepal China also instigated Pakistan against India and on 30 April Pakistan Supreme Court passed a judgement that the government can hold elections in Gilgit & Baltistan. Both are parts of Kashmir and are under illegal occupation of Pakistan.

The relations between China and Nepal are becoming stronger. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Nepal in October 2019. It was the first visit by a Chinese head of state in 23 years. China wants Nepal to become an important participant in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese Ambassador to Nepal had several meetings with the leaders of different factions of Communist Party of Nepal so that Oli’s government continues. At present Oli’s government is much closer to China than India.

Prime Minister Modi’s policy of ‘Neighbourhood First’ was a welcomed initiative but the progress on the initiative could not produce desired results. China has deep pockets and it extended loan and financial assistance for construction of huge infrastructure projects to several countries. The policy was also not very successful because of inflexible policies of Indian bureaucrats. The present Kalapani dispute clearly indicates that India has to be careful while dealing with Nepal as it is working on behest of China and against the interests of India.

There is a strong anti-India lobby in Nepal which is financed and abetted by MSS of China and Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan. Hence India should also try to inculcate a formal channel of communications where impartial Nepalese can bring all issues together and convince masses about the assistance rendered by India.

At present China is facing anger of several countries because of inconsiderate handling of COVID-19 disease. Numerous companies are trying to windup there business from China while few countries have reduced their purchases. President Trump is also repeatedly issuing statements against China and trade issues between both the countries are not solved.  Several countries are also feeling threatened because of Chinese actions in South China Sea. U.S. is extending defence cooperation to Taiwan, Vietnam and India which is not liked by China.

There were border skirmishes between Indian and Chinese troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Indian and Chinese troops first fought in eastern Ladakh near Pangong Lake on 5 May. Again, on 9 May troops of both the countries clashed at north Sikkim. Several soldiers of both sides were injured in these clashes. The possibility that China may go for few more clashes with India to distract world attention is not ruled out.

And amidst all this Nepal has understood which side of its bread will remain buttered. It has concluded that pleasing big brother China by creating territorial lockhorns with India will be both an international and a domestic card well played.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Is China Responsible For Creation And Spread Of Coronavirus?

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Courtesy: qz.com

·        Do we still need to ask?

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 29 March 2020. There are evidences that China calculatingly covered up the outbreak of coronavirus in Wuhan. In early days and weeks of epidemic China not only suppressed the information but also made no sincere efforts to prevent it. In this way Beijing endangered not only the citizens of China but also of more than 100 countries. The communist regime of China expurgated, detained and punished the courageous Doctor Li Wenliang and human rights advocate Chen Qiushi, as they tried to warn government and fellow citizens about this dangerous virus and the severity of the situation.

Initially President Donald Trump was appreciative of the efforts of Chinese president Xi Jinping in controlling the pandemic so early, but later he and his administration realised that the virus started from China and it neither made efforts to control the virus nor informed the world about it. Hence, he named the virus as “Wuhan virus” just to emphasise that the virus started from Wuhan, China. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also indicated towards China for the outbreak. Defending the country, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson alleged that U.S. is trying to shift the responsibility and trying to deprecate China and mentioned that U.S. statements are “immoral and irresponsible”.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) avoided mentioning Wuhan and named the ailment as COVID-19. WHO also gave no heed to the letter from Taiwan written in December 2019, in which Taiwan stated that coronavirus spreads from human to human and also requested to adopt precautionary measures. Taiwan took preventive measures and although it is so near to China it saved itself from the disaster. 

China in past also mishandled the eruption of SARS in 2002 and 2003 but the present negligence of December 2019 and January 2020 may be intentional. The administration instead of taking actions against the spread of coronavirus took actions against whistle-blowers who wanted to warn the health department about the dangerous virus. Chinese government enforced a lockdown in Wuhan on 23 January which is about seven weeks after the virus first appeared. According to Zhou Xianwang, the mayor of Wuhan, in these seven weeks more than 50 million people must have left Wuhan. We also know that seven weeks is a very long time for the spread of this new virus.

The scientists and medical journals warned about the outbreak of the virus. In an article in 2007 and experts in 2019 cautioned about the outbreak of the virus in South China because of eating horseshoe bats and mammals in southern China but government took no action. Now Chinese have launched a disinformation campaign against U.S.A and alleging that U.S. army is behind the virus. As coronavirus is spreading rapidly in U.S., China is trying to influence media persons of U.S. and other countries to blame U.S. and give clean chit to Beijing. China has also expelled American journalists who may have written with facts about Chinese hand in creation and spread of coronavirus. Chinese spokespersons also tried to give the twist of racism and prejudices towards them but forgot that they are one of the worst racists and human right violators. Chinese have kept more than a million Uighur Muslims in concentration camps and Muslims are not allowed to follow their religious rites and practices.

The critics claim that China is an expansionist country and once Xi Jinping became president for lifetime, he wants to expand the influence of China all over the world. One Belt One Road (OBOR) is the brainchild of Xi Jinping which is an ambitious plan. It was initiated in 2013 and covers about 78 countries. Several small counties will not able to pay the loan of Chinese companies and China will occupy their prime ports, land and other places. Sri Lanka has already lost Hambantota and China is in control of Gwadar port of Pakistan. It is expected that China will also occupy some fertile land of Pakistan and will exploit the mineral resources of Balochistan, Gilgit and Baltistan. Pakistan, which is thoroughly radicalised is not realising the ulterior motive of China. It only feels that China is an all-weather friend which can be used against India. The extremism has increased up to the extent that clerics have refused to close mosques even at the outbreak of coronavirus. 

According to unconfirmed reports China has developed about 1500 different types of viruses which it will use against their adversaries as well as against business competitors. The Wuhan Institute of Virology a research institute on virology opened in 2015 in Jiangxia District, Wuhan played an important role in the development of these viruses.

At present when world is finding difficult to cure disastrous coronavirus, The Global Times of China reported that a resident of Yunnan province died from Hantavirus. According to Centre for Disease Control, Hantavirus spreads through rodents. The China watchers claim that Beijing has started another virus at a time when more than 531,000 people are already infected by coronavirus and death toll is more than 24,000 and the scientists are fighting to find the medicine of the disease.

It is also preposterous that U.S., Japan, United Kingdom, Italy and other European countries are suffering with this dreadful virus while the distance between North Korea and Wuhan is only 1610 K. Ms and there is no impact of the virus. There is also very little impact of coronavirus on Russia. Both North Korea and Russia are friendly countries of China.   

 At present an economic war was going on between U.S. and China and it is expected that coronavirus would harm U.S. very badly. According to World Health Organisation (WHO) press conference of 24 March, U.S. may become the epicentre of coronavirus pandemic. WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris stated that “We are now seeing a very large acceleration of cases in the U.S.” At present more than 85000 persons are suffering from coronavirus in U.S.A. and number will increase. 

The economists claim that China will emerge as a big beneficiary because of spread of coronavirus. The shares of European and American companies based in China have fallen and China which has deep pockets may purchase the shares of these companies. China has prepared 12,000 bed hospitals within two weeks. It is not feasible unless preparation was made before, as it needs several things including doctors, nurses, medical staff, equipment which may not be arranged in such a small period. Chinese also claimed that they have controlled the outbreak of the disease.

Large number of old Chinese people died by the virus, and in this way the government saved substantial amount which was paid as old age pension. At present economies of several countries are under pressure, the commercial capitals of most of the countries including India are giving deserted look, stock markets are in a pitiable condition. On the other hand, the economy of China is recovering, employees are returning to the factories. Wuhan the epicentre of the epidemic is ending the lockdown, sales are picking up, aviation industry is restoring the flights, subway traffic and online sales are also increasing. Very soon the consumer goods will finish from the world market and while most of the countries will be busy fighting the pandemic China will grab most of the orders and will strengthen its economy. 

Few China watchers proclaim that coronavirus is a biological warfare initiated by China to subdue U.S., Japan and other European countries. In the present time economic power is as important as military might hence crippling of the economy of the adversary is significant. The situation all over the world is deteriorating but still there is no solution of the problem. The scientists and researchers are working day and night to find the solution and very soon some medicine will be invented but by that time the economy of several countries would be devastated, and China may be benefitted in long run. However, it is too early to blame any country or agency for this calamity. The world needs much more concrete evidences before putting blame to any country or institution for such a big catastrophe.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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Home » Spotlight » China Irked Over Nepal’s Refusal To Sign Extradition Treaty : Also Warned India

China Irked Over Nepal’s Refusal To Sign Extradition Treaty : Also Warned India

·        Honeymoon between China & Nepal on shaky grounds

By JK Verma

The hand shake not so strong

New Delhi. 16 October 2019. Both Chinese as well as Nepalese media projected that the Chinese President’s two days visit to Nepal which came after 23 years was a grand success. The previous visit was made by President Jiang Zemin in 1996. The analysts claim that Chinese President had not visited Nepal as China was waiting for a strong government in the Himalayan kingdom turned democracy. In last few decades there were repeated changes in the government and there was no political stability in the country.

The media and the foreign offices of both the countries highlighted that visiting Chinese President assured to invest $500 million in developmental and infrastructure projects in the next two years. Both the countries have also signed 20 agreements including 18 MoUs and two letters of exchange to augment the bilateral relations between both the countries. These agreements covered various sectors including agriculture, commerce, industry and transport.

Xi Jinping reached Nepal on 12 October on a two-day state visit where he was received by President Bidya Devi Bhandari and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli at the Kathmandu airport. Xi during his sojourn in Nepal met Nepalese President as well as the Prime Minister. Xi Jinping promised to improve the Arniko Highway which links Kathmandu with Tatopani transit point at Nepal-China border. The Tatopani transit point was closed for four years because of catastrophic earthquakes of 2015 and recurrent flooding of Bhotekoshi River. It is an important transit point as Nepal was importing goods worth Rs.20 billion and was exporting goods worth Rs.3 billion through Tatopaani check post. Nepal was earning revenue approximately of Rs.5 billion through the import and export from this post. Earlier China was disinclined to reopen the transit point due to security reasons although Nepal repeatedly requested to open Tatopani transit point.

Xi also promised that very soon a study would be conducted to assess the viability of trans-Himalayan railway and China will assist in the construction of Kerung-Kathmandu tunnel road. Chinese president also mentioned that there is no issue between China and Nepal and their friendship is a model friendship. Xi further mentioned that “We want to support Nepal in realising its dream to become a land-linked country from the landlocked country.” Xi also promised to help Nepal in education and in urban development areas. Nepalese president stated that Nepal adheres to “one-China policy” and nobody will be allowed to work against the interests of China from Nepalese soil. The Nepalese President gave a stern warning to Tibetans.

However, the analysts claim that all was not well during Chinese President’s visit to Nepal. First of all, the Himalayan Kingdom declined to sign the extradition treaty with China and in its place Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal matters was inked. Nepal understood that China is insisting on extradition treaty as it would be used against Tibetans residing in Nepal. At present about 20,000 Tibetans live in Nepal. According to a rough estimate about 2,500 Tibetans illegally pass through Nepal every year and visit Dharamshala in India to pay respects to 84-year-old Dalai Lama. Nepal shares a long border with Tibet, and both have close relations. Nepal also feared that extradition treaty will infringe its sovereignty and will not be liked by India. Nepal also expected that a wide section of Nepalese have close relations with Tibet, and they will resist their deportation to China.

Nepal also avoided signing defence agreement and an accord on construction of border roads. China also wanted to allow Nepal access to more Chinese ports with special conditions, but Nepal had not signed those agreements too. Nepal has also refused to accept Chinese proposal of construction of National Defence University (NDU) similar to the National Defence College (NDC) of India. NDC is the topmost institution of strategic learning for officers of Indian Armed Forces and the Civil Services of India. Although Nepal cited the reason of refusal of Chinese assistance as local resentment, but analysts feel that Nepal is becoming apprehensive of Chinese assistance as both countries were negotiating about the establishment of NDU till few days before the visit of Xi Jinping. Nepal has also refused to accept Chinese assistance in construction of new Parliament building as Nepal and India are also negotiating on the construction of Parliament building. India and Nepal already signed extradition treaty in 1953 however India wants the revision of the treaty but both countries failed to revise the treaty due to differences.

Nepal averted signing these accords as resentment is growing in Nepal against China. In recent past there were several anti-Chinese demonstrations, as Nepalese are realising that Chinese are exploiting them. Recently few cases of frauds committed by Chinese also came to limelight. Nepalese are also understanding that Chinese do not allow to float international tenders and all works have to be assigned to Chinese companies. These Chinese companies take contracts on higher rates and give loan on high interest rates. No employment is generated as Chinese companies bring all construction material from China and provide employment to Chinese people only.

Xi also assured that it will safeguard Nepal’s national independence, sovereignty and integrity. The statement indicates that China wants to swap India, but the Nepalese defence personnel appears to be more comfortable with India hence Nepalese had not given any positive response to Chinese offer.  

Chinese president also met Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and Nepal Communist Party co-chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda.

President Xi also gave a stern message that anyone who tries to “split” China will be “crushed”. The analysts claim that the warning is for Tibetans and to India as China always alleges that India is supporting Tibetans who are creating trouble in Tibet. China also gave a veiled message to India that China is a global power and India should review its relations with China. The warning was also to the protesters in Hongkong as well as the forces abetting protesters overtly or covertly.

Pakistan which considers India as its enemy number one is whole heartedly supporting China. Prime Minister Imran Khan visited China just before Chinese President’s two-day visit to India and briefed him about Kashmir issue. China had also reversed its viewpoint about Kashmir during the visit of Imran Khan. China stopped making reference of UN Security Council resolution once Xi’s visit to India was announced but in the joint communique issued after the visit of Imran Khan again mentioned UNSC resolution over Kashmir. Although India raised a strong protest but not cancelled the informal summit.

On the other hand, Nepal takes help from China and wants to reduce its dependence on India but because of geographical compulsions India remains its biggest trading partner and Nepal remains dependent on India for many things. China which has deep pockets allure Nepal by promising heavy investments in developing infrastructure in Nepal.

China which considers India as its potential rival will continue encircling India and pricking it as and when required. China will also continue winning over India’s neighbour and as it has surplus funds it is investing in developing the infrastructure in the neighbouring countries. China is pressing Nepal for extending bigger collaboration in Belt and Road Initiative. China plans to connect Lhasa (Tibet) with Kathmandu and from Kathmandu to Lumbini near Indo-Nepal border. In this way China wants to press India to join BRI because without India joining BRI China is unable to achieve its object. At present China is much more powerful than India militarily as well as economically hence India should try to keep the dragon in good humour and make sincere efforts to strengthen itself.          

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and a retired senior intelligence officer. He is also member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)