Afghanistan
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Is Pakistan – Afghan Taliban honeymoon over?
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. August 2022. “Pakistan
attaches high priority to close friendly and cooperative relations with
Afghanistan and wish to maintain a broad-based, mutually beneficial
relationship. A peaceful, stable and prosperous Afghanistan remains in our best
interest,” this is how Pakistan describes its feelings for neighbour
Afghanistan. And for the first time in decades Kabul will have a pro-Pakistan
regime, was the general consensus when Afghanistan became Islamic
Republic of Afghanistan. What should have been a long drawn love affair , seems
to be getting bitter.
The honeymoon between Afghan Taliban
and Pakistan is over just within a year. The major differences between both the
countries came into surface. Afghan Taliban has continued their asistance to
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the security forces of both countries fought
because of age-old border dispute. Afghan government invited India for
completing the infrastructure projects.
The differences between both the countries
have become so tense that on 17 August there was a bomb blast in a Sunni mosque
in Kabul. According to press reports about 21 persons were killed while more
than 30 persons were injured. The blast occurred at the time of evening
prayers. No one took responsibility for the blast. The Islamic State (IS) has
increased attacks after Taliban came to power as they are against Taliban rule
and want to establish their rule. In the blast besides cleric Mullah Amir
Mohammad Kabuli, several Taliban Mujahids were also killed. Officially Taliban
spokesperson only mentioned that the “perpetrators of such crimes will soon be
brought to justice and will be punished.” Kabul is also unhappy because the
blast occurred in a Sunni mosque in capital city of Kabul and that too just two
days after the anniversary of their coming to power. However few Afghan
analysts claim that it is the handiwork of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) as
they wanted to put pressure on Kabul. The possibility that ISI used IS for this
blast cannot be ruled out. Afghans claim that the mosque was controlled by
Taliban and Talban fighters were also present in the mosque at the time of
blast hence it was a prime target for ISI.
Islamabad does not allow IS to
establish itself in Pakistan but ISI is using IS in other countries especially
in India and Afghanistan. Taliban are worried because IS has created Islamic
State in Khorasan Province or IS-K which is creating problematic security
challenge to Kabul. The ideology of IS-K suits extremist youths as it
propagates worldwide Jihad. Several extremist followers of Taliban have also
joined IS-K as its radical views are more appealing.
Although Pakistan is striving so that
the differences between both the countries do not come on surface but Taliban
ruled Afghan government made it clear that they do not recognise Durand Line as
international border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Taliban claim that 2,640
Kilometre Durand Line was wrongly carved out by British rulers. The Afghan
Defence Ministry spokesperson made it clear that Pakistan has no legal
authority to put barbed wire fencing along Durand Line as it divides the same
tribe.
Mullah Yaqoob head of defence
ministry made it clear that they have deployed Taliban fighters on the borders
and they would not allow construction of barbed wire fencing along Durand Line.
Taliban circulated a video in which they showed that an Afghan truck is
demolishing the fencing. Afghan Mujahids also claim that Pakistan security
forces deployed at the borders ran away leaving the construction equipment.
Islamabad alleges that TTP also supports Taliban in removing the border
fencing. Afghans have removed border fencing at several places particularly in
four provinces namely Kunar, Nimruz, Nangarhar and Helmand. There were series
of border skirmishes between Pakistan and Afghanistan forces even after Taliban
came into power in Afghanistan. The firings occurred between both the forces on
26 and 29 August and 24 December in 2021. In 2022 gunfights happened on 6 and
24 February as well as on 9 and 15 April.
An important reason of rising
differences between Kabul and Islamabad is because of TTP which enhanced
terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Kabul has turned down Islamabad’s request to take
stringent action against TTP mujahedeen. Islamabad thought that Taliban were
successful in capturing power in Afghanistan because of assistance rendered by
Pakistan hence Taliban should adhere to their instructions not only about
Durand Line but should also take severe actions against TTP. But Taliban
instead of taking any action against TTP, it is helping them and providing them
safe haven.
Taliban ideology is more near to TTP
as they proclaim to promulgate Taliban like Shariah in Pakistan. TTP has stepped
up its attacks on Pakistan security forces. Pakistan retaliated by airstrikes
in TTP camps located inside Afghanistan. But Pakistan security forces had
flawed intelligence and, in the airstrikes, instead of TTP fighters Afghan
civilians including children were killed. Kabul took the air attacks by
Pakistan quite seriously and summoned Islamabad’s envoy in Kabul and told him
that Kabul would retaliate, if in future Pakistan resorted to more airstrikes.
Pakistan has also lodged a strong protest to Kabul as terrorists are using
Afghan territory. Islamabad also threatened that if Kabul fail to prevent
terrorists from using their territory Islamabad may resort to more cross border
attacks.
Courtesy : Daily Excelsior
Islamabad had to resort for airstrike
because TTP has not only established bases in Afghanistan but also using them
as safe havens before and after attacks on Pakistani security forces. Initially
Islamabad complained and requested Kabul to take action against TTP but instead
of taking action Kabul told Islamabad to address TTP’s complaints and Kabul
offered to mediate the negotiations. TTP has also launched a deadly Operation
‘Al Badr’ against Pakistan security forces from 2nd April
2022. Pakistan thought that airstrikes would put pressure on Kabul and the
Afghan masses would become against TTP. But airstrikes killed Afghan children
hence Afghans became hostile to Pakistan and Kabul has refused to bow down
before Islamabad. TTP is also helping Taliban in repressing Islamic State which
is emerging as a powerful force in Afghanistan, Ideologies of TTP and Taliban
are similar. TTP supported Taliban when they were fighting with Afghan
government and TTP leadership owe allegiance to Taliban leadership hence it is
difficult for Taliban to leave TTP.
Kabul is aware that at present
Pakistan is facing innumerable problems including Baloch rebellion, pressure
from ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan, differences in army which is an unifying
force. The economy of the country is on verge of collapse hence it may not like
to open one more front.
Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was
killed in a drone strike on 31 July 2022. He was residing in a posh area in
Kabul. Analysts believe that Zawahiri had protection from Taliban and ISI
helped US and provided information about Zawahiri. The killing gave bad name to
Taliban and it also increased the differences between Kabul and Islamabad.
Islamabad is also annoyed as Taliban
have invited India to come to Afghanistan and complete the unfinished
infrastructure projects. Afghan Foreign Ministry spokesperson Abdul Qahar Balki
stated that Afghan government has requested India to complete the projects.
India has already opened a diplomatic mission and it is expected that soon it
would be upgraded. He also mentioned that the trade between both the countries
has doubled and it would increase more. Afghan spokesperson also mentioned that
Afghan government is trying to revive Indian connectivity through Chabahar port
of Iran.
Pakistan is also suspicious about the
visit of National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to Moscow in this month. In the
visit Doval met his counter part as well as other dignitaries in Russia. He
discussed security issues, nonetheless the analysts claim that both of them
also discussed situation in Afghanistan. The meeting gave a message to Afghan
regime that they are not against Taliban but wants to eliminate terrorist
outfits like al Qaeda and Islamic State.
It is clear that Taliban regime would
not accept the dictates of Islamabad and would try to develop cordial relations
with other countries especially India which would not be liked by Pakistan.
India should continue its assistance to Afghanistan as strategically Kabul is
important for Delhi.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based
strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and
member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com).
Will humanitarian
aid to Afghanistan buy peace for the region?
Courtesy : dvidshub.net
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 17 September 2021. The Afghanistan saga has now come to stay and the government in power
promises to keep creating global headlines, at least for some time to come.
Pakistan backed Taliban government in Afghanistan,
which consists of several dreaded terrorists, was announced four days before 20th anniversary of 11 September 2001. On this day
Al Qaeda conducted a series of four coordinated terrorist attacks in United
States. Taliban have not only announced the restoration of “Islamic Emirates’
but also appointed Sirajuddin Haqqani as ‘Interior Minister’. Sirajuddin is the
son of the founder of Haqqani network and one of the most wanted terrorist of
the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s list of most wanted terrorists because of
his close connection with Al Qaeda. The cabinet, which consists of all male
Sunni Pashtuns, has no representation of other ethnic groups like Tajiks,
Uzbeks, and others.
Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanikzai
Courtesy : vimarsana,com
In Afghanistan India pursued a principled policy of
recognising and assisting the elected government. Although India had started
negotiations with Taliban but still following the policy of ‘wait and watch’
and moving carefully. Taliban captured power by ousting the elected government
by force but no country opposed their move and the U.S. not only negotiated and
signed an agreement with them but also abandoned the elected government.
Pakistan and China openly came in support of new government while few other
countries might be extending their support clandestinely.
Taliban as well as Pakistan are trying to project
that it is a new Taliban which is considerably changed, nonetheless the facts
and their actions clearly indicate that there is no change in their attitude
and policies. According to UN Human Rights Office Taliban are using whips,
lathis and even guns to disperse the peaceful demonstrations which are
continuing in various cities of Afghanistan. Taliban have not only prohibited
assemblies but also instructed telecommunication companies to switch off the
internet on mobile phones in several areas of Kabul. The media claims that
Taliban were torturing the journalists and the atrocities on journalists
enhanced after they captured power.
https://ctc.usma.edu/
Recently the Indian Military Academy trained Sher
Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai, the deputy head of Taliban’s political office in
Qatar and Anas Haqqani younger brother of Sirajuddin Haqqani stated that
Taliban wants to have economic, political, and cultural relations with India.
Haqqani also mentioned that though India supported Taliban’s rivals in past but
now Taliban wants to have cordial relations with all countries including India.
He also mentioned that Taliban would not interfere in Kashmir issue.
The analysts claim that Taliban cannot be trusted
as at present they are working on image build-up hence claiming that they are
considerably changed and wants to have cordial relations with all the
countries. The higher leadership of Taliban may try to pose itself as moderate
but it consists of several big and small groups and these factions owe loyalty
to their warlords. Taliban are facing lot of resistance within the country
hence they may try to control the opposition ruthlessly. The chances that
Afghanistan soon becomes the epic centre of terrorism cannot be ruled out and
it may plan and execute terrorist attacks similar to 9/11 offensive. Inter
Services Intelligence (ISI) has lot of influence on Haqqani network and it may
force them to work against Indian interests. Haqqani network has close
relations with Lashkar-e-Taiba (L-e-T) and in July 2008 was involved in suicide
car bombing in front of Indian embassy Kabul.
Happy twosome : File picture
Pakistani leadership was very happy when Taliban
took control of Afghanistan and Imran Khan claimed that Taliban have broken
“the chains of slavery.” ISI also claimed that its clandestine operations
succeeded and it successfully installed Taliban in Afghanistan. Pakistan played
double role, on one hand it gave safe sanctuary, training, and financial
assistance to Taliban and on the other hand showed to U.S. that they are
helping in tracing and eliminating Taliban.
The fundamentalists in Pakistan are also happy as
they feel that Islam has defeated the U.S. which is a super power. They also
claim that now Taliban would help them in capturing Kashmir. Nonetheless
Pakistan does not realise that Taliban are extremists and divided under several
warlords and there is no central leadership. Afghanistan exported only
terrorism, contraband drugs, and uneducated and untrained manpower. Hence very
soon few factions of Taliban would start assisting Pakistani terrorists.
Pakistan has no dearth of madrassa educated extremists who want to implement
medieval and more stringent Islam.
Intelligence chiefs of several countries including
Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan met at Islamabad and discussed the present situation in Afghanistan.
The situation in Afghanistan is becoming precarious
and according to UNDP 97 percent people in Afghanistan would fall into poverty
if remedial measures are not taken. UN special envoy also warned that if
financial assistance is not provided to Afghanistan the economy and the country
would collapse. According to World Food Programme (WFP) about 93 percent Afghan
families have not enough to eat and the situation would become more perilous as
winter is fast approaching.
At present Afghanistan is facing diverse problems
including putrefying economy, outdated mindset, belligerent public, and
apportioned leadership. The foreign countries except Pakistan and China have
adopted the policy of watch and see. Pakistan which itself is moving with
begging bowl is in no position to assist. China has deep pockets and also announced
financial support but its terms of assistance are always quite stringent. Hence
the possibility that Afghanistan plunges in another civil war cannot be ruled
out.
There are grave differences among Taliban
leadership and clashes erupted between the followers of Mullah Baradar and
Haqqani network. Baradar wants to project the moderate picture of Taliban which
may be acceptable to the world while Haqqani network is more radical and rigid.
The other terrorist outfits like Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) an
affiliate of Islamic State (IS) would also oppose Taliban to whom they consider
as U.S. agents. About 180 people including 13 U.S. soldiers were killed in a
bomb blast at Kabul airport on 26 August. The ISKP took responsibility of the
suicide attack which has more than 2,000 fighters in the country. The
influence of ISKP would augment as it is more radical and would take advantage
of infighting and differences among various Taliban factions.
Taliban control Kabul Airport : File picture
Taliban after capturing Afghanistan had released
about 5,000 terrorists from the prisons which would also increase terrorism in
the war-torn country. China offered financial assistance to Taliban government
as it wants to weaken Islamic State which would help Uighur Muslims who are fighting
for an independent country in Xinjiang, province of China. Taliban has also
declared China as an important friend. China is assisting Haqqani network from
last several years and that is the reason that Taliban has assured China that
they would not support Uighur Muslims. China is also eying on vast mineral
resources of Afghanistan. However, there are several Taliban factions which
consider China as their enemy and are ready to extend full support to Uighur
Muslims. Al-Qaeda which has extremely cordial relations with several factions
of Taliban is constantly assisting East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) of
Uighur Muslims.
The international community should not abandon
Afghanistan as the mindset of Taliban is not changed much. The Muslim countries
should provide asylum to fleeing Afghans and the Organisation of Islamic
Cooperation (OIC) and other rich nations should render financial assistance to
bankrupt Afghanistan. Several countries are afraid of giving asylum to Afghan
nationals because of fear of inclusion of terrorists among refugees.
Courtesy :
dvidshub.net
It is evident that if international community does
not extend financial and other humanitarian assistance to war-ravaged unstable
Afghanistan, there will be famine, starvation, and total anarchy. Extremism and
terrorism will increase and it would be a safe haven to terrorists. Afghanistan
would export terrorism not only to India, but also to Pakistan, China, Russia
and other neighbouring countries like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and others. As
ISKP and Al Qaeda are also active hence they would plan and execute terrorist
attacks on U.S. and other European countries.
In view of changed circumstances now India is also
negotiating with Taliban and recently Indian Ambassador to Qatar Deepak Mittal
met with Stanekzai. Indian envoy discussed about giving the safe passage to
Hindus and Sikhs and not allow Pakistani terrorists to use Afghanistan for
their anti-India activities. India has multifarious interests in Afghanistan as
Delhi has invested more than $3 billion in various infrastructure projects.
India earned goodwill in the country because of its good work and Delhi would
like to retain its human capital. India is also trying to influence Taliban
through the countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Russia as they can put
some pressure on Taliban. The story will keep unfolding as time passes and the
region is in for uncertain stability.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United
Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/talibans-return-to-power-in-afghanistan-is-dangerous-for-the-world/
Taliban’s return to
power in Afghanistan is dangerous for the world
Courtesy:
phukettimes.com
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 02 September 2021. Taliban which is a terrorist organisation and claims it’s led nation is
Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan, has captured more or less complete
Afghanistan including its capital Kabul. In past Taliban has ruled Afghanistan
for about five years with an iron fist, imposed Sharia, usurped all rights of
women, gave shelter and training to Al Qaeda and other terrorist outfits, and
made the country as epicentre of terrorism. Taliban is an
ultra-conservative, radical terrorist Islamic outfit but when they were taking
over the country all international forces remained silent
observers.
Taliban have started killing of civilians,
kidnapping young girls, murdering government employees and their family members
in the areas under their control. Taliban are ruthless Islamic zealots; they
destroy religious places of other religions and force the minorities to convert
especially young girls. They are also involved in looting and arson of
properties of their rivals.
Under the elected government of Afghanistan, the
women progressed and worked at several high-ranking positions and were playing
important roles in the society. Nevertheless, Taliban have issued instructions
that women should remain confined to their houses till the next order. Large
number of Afghans believe that Taliban would restart the abuses of stoning,
lashing, hanging etc. under the name of Islam.
Courtesy :
bofads.com
General Masoud Andarabi
former interior Minister of Afghanistan claimed that triumph of Taliban is a
political defeat and not a military defeat of Afghan National
Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). He mentioned that ANDSF was an
efficient, fully equipped and a well-trained force but former President Ashraf
Ghani has not only ruined it but also escaped from the country. General
Andarabi also cautioned that Pakistan, China, Iran, and other countries should
not help Taliban as they would convert the country as centre of terrorism.
Terrorist organisations like Islamic State and al Qaeda would get not only safe
heaven but Taliban would also help them in getting training. Taliban are in
touch with other international terrorist organisations of Syria, Iraq, and
other countries. He stated that Taliban would not only destroy Afghanistan but
also harm its neighbouring countries.
The victory of Taliban is a big setback to the
whole democratic world including India. Delhi has invested about $3 billion in
different developmental and infrastructional projects. U.S. and NATO forces
left Afghanistan without fulfilling their main objective of establishment of
democracy in the warn-torn country. Although they equipped and trained Afghan
security forces but could not eliminate Taliban, al Qaeda, Islamic State as
well as other terrorist outfits. Taliban captured large quantity of U.S. arms
which were handed over to Pakistan and ISI would give these weapons to
terrorists and infiltrate them to India. The fighters of Lashker-e-Toiba and
Jaish-e-Mohammed would be sent to India from Afghanistan.
In fact, when Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad started
negotiations with Taliban without the representative of elected government it
was clear that U.S. wants to leave Afghanistan without caring what would happen
to the country after its departure. U.S. remained indifferent even when Taliban
continued violating the terms of agreement.
www.myscience.org
Now after capturing Afghanistan Taliban wants to
build its image. Last time it was recognised by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and
U.A.E. but this time it appears that Pakistan, China, Russia, and Turkey are willing
to recognise Taliban. Although Taliban are claiming that they have changed and
are promising that the women can work outside, there will be no retribution to
pro-government forces, journalists can work freely, rights of minorities would
be honoured and there will be no human rights violation however, the ground
reality is different. Taliban made it clear that Afghanistan would be an
Islamic State and rights of women and other human rights would be according to
Sharia. It is visualised that the interpretation of Sharia would be same as it
was in 1990 hence the persecution of women, minorities and rivals would be same
as it was before. Taliban also burnt down amusement park after using it for few
days.
A recently released report of Amnesty International
mentioned that the Taliban has tortured and then mercilessly killed several
members of Hazara community after taking control of the area. Human Rights
Watch also mentioned that Taliban are brutally killing the people under
suspicion of links with U.S. or Afghan government. As expected, Taliban are
also torturing ethnic and religious minorities including Shia Muslims.
Although Taliban asserted that India could continue
with its projects and they will neither harm Indians nor its projects.
Nevertheless, India always supported the elected government and Pakistan has
massive influence over Taliban hence the chances that Taliban would not harm
Indian interests are remote. Taliban had already looted two consulates and
killed an Indian photo journalist. There are also reports that Haibatullah
Akhundzada supreme commander of Taliban is in the custody of Pakistan army.
Taliban-China meet in Beijing
China is directly as well as through Pakistan in
touch with Taliban. Recently a nine member Taliban delegation headed by Abdul
Ghani Baradar went to China and met Chinese foreign minister. The Taliban
delegation visited soon after the visit of Pakistan foreign minister to China.
Chinese foreign minister also mentioned that Taliban are “a pivotal military
and political force”. On one hand China wants that Taliban should not render
any assistance to Uighur Muslims and on the other hand it wants to exploit vast
mineral resources of the country. Beijing also wants to extend Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) in Afghanistan and will like to use land route to
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan through Afghanistan.
Russian President Vladimir Putin showed his concern
as Afghans are taking shelter in neighbouring countries and the chances that
terrorists may also enter in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and from
there they may penetrate in Russia. The extremists among refugees may instigate
Muslims in Russia against the present government.
People in Afghanistan are becoming restless and
there is overcrowding in Kabul international airport. Khalil al-Rahman
Haqqani who has close relations with Al Qaeda and is in the wanted list of
U.S. was given charge of the security of Kabul. Haqqani network is one of the
most cruel faction of Taliban. Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani is a global terrorist
and U.S. announced a reward of $ 5 million on him. Taliban are entangled in
house-to-house searches and embroiled in violence against unarmed citizens.
Courtesy : Blitz
Several countries including U.S. allies are
criticising Biden for sudden withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan but it
appears that it is a well-planned strategic move of U.S. Baradar was released
from Pakistani prison on behest of America in 2018 while Khairullah Khairkhwa
and four others were released from Guatemala jail by President Obama in 2014.
Not only this William Burns Director of Central Intelligence Agency (C.I.A.)
met Baradar in Kabul on August 23 and discussed important issues secretly. The
analysts claim that President Biden realised that although U.S. and allies
spent billions of dollars but terrorism could not be eradicated from
Afghanistan and their adversaries like China and Russia are progressing. Hence
if U.S. wants to remain as lone superpower it must utilise its resources on its
development instead of spending in Afghanistan.
Fierce fighting occurred in Panjshir valley under
the leadership of Ahmad Massoud, Amrullah Saleh and Bismillah Khan Mohammadi.
They constituted National Resistance Front of Afghanistan. Panjshir valley has
mainly Tajiks while Taliban are mainly Pashtuns. However, negotiations were
held between Taliban and Panjshir leaders but the details are awaited. Taliban
is also taking help from Russians to negotiate with fighters in Panjshir
valley. The borders of Panjshir valley do not touch with any country
hence it will be difficult for any foreign power to assist them.
Although Pashtuns are the biggest ethnic group but
there are other important ethnic groups like Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Almaq,
Baloch, Pashai etc. most of these groups fear domination of Pashtun dominated
Taliban. Tajiks of Panjshir should try to unite few of these groups against
Taliban.
The future of Afghanistan as well as of the
democratic world is in jeopardy. Taliban with medieval mindset would halt the
progress and development of the country on the name of religion. Al Qaeda,
Islamic State and other terrorist outfits would be strengthened. The terrorist
outfits may plan attacks similar to September 11 attack in New York or plane
hijacking. Taliban consists of several small groups and few extremists have a
lot of hatred towards democracy and other religions therefore the possibility
of sponsoring terrorist acts cannot be ruled out. The probability that
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and The Ministry of State Security (MSS)
also render assistance to the terrorists cannot eliminated. Hence the
democratic world should be united so that the terrorist activities of Taliban
as well as atrocities on their public especially ladies can be prevented.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United
Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s.)
Aviation & Defence Universe
WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM
Taliban Retakes
Afghanistan: Situation is fluid in the country.
By JK Verma
New Delhi. 21 August 2021. On 16 August President Joe Biden addressed the nation in which he
defended his decision of withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. He
mentioned that American troops went to Afghanistan 20 years back to punish
those who attacked U.S. in September 2001 and “make sure al Qaeda could not use
Afghanistan as a base from which to attack us again.” U.S. achieved the goals.
He made it clear that “American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a
war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for
themselves. We spent over a trillion dollars. We trained and equipped an Afghan
military force of some 300,000 strong”. Biden made it clear that when Afghan
troops are not ready to defend their own country why U.S. soldiers should die
for them. He accepted that Taliban won much before the expectations of security
advisers. The Secretary of State Antony Blinken also
defended the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
Besides the death of U.S. soldiers Biden was also
worried that his country is spending huge amount in Afghanistan while its
competitors China and Russia are progressing.
It was expected that the ill motivated, corruption
riddled Afghan National Defence Security Forces (ANDSF) would not be able to
fight Taliban for a long time but they would accept defeat so early was not
anticipated. Taliban instead of fighting, contacted warlords and tribal leaders
and sometimes persuaded and several times bribed them to join Taliban instead
of the Afghan security forces. Not only the militia leaders but even ANDSF
personnel took money and handed over the weapons. Several soldiers ran away
from Afghanistan while quite a few changed their loyalty and joined Taliban. In
several cities, the ANDSF surrendered without fighting.
As Taliban reoccupied the country with unexpected
speed several countries like India, France, Germany, United Kingdom, and others
are busy in evacuation of their nationals as well as those Afghans who were
helpful to them in last 20 years or so. European countries are also worried
about the influx of Afghan refugees. French President Emmanuel Macron warned
that all European countries should work jointly to curb the irregular migration
though he mentioned that France would welcome those Afghans who worked with
French forces in Afghanistan and the human right activists.
The speedy collapse of Afghan government created
chaos and despairing scenes. Although Taliban are claiming that there is peace
in whole of Afghanistan including Kabul but satellite images clearly indicate
that Afghans are desperate to leave the country. There was complete chaos at
the international airport in Kabul. Few people died because they tried to cling
to ascending plane as they wanted to leave Afghanistan. U.S. forces who are
controlling the airport had to fire on the unruly crowd.
The world is watching with suspicion how Taliban
would rule the country. They would declare Afghanistan as an Islamic country
which will be ruled by Sharia laws. The flag of the country will also be
changed. Taliban rule in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 was atrocious and cruel,
they did public executions and impeded the rights of women. This time Taliban
and their supporters claim that they have changed themselves and will not be
cruel but several militias are part of Taliban and their warlords govern the
cities under their control according to their whims. Hence the reports are
pouring that Taliban have started sale and purchase of young girls and forcibly
either marrying them or making them slaves. The females who were working were
told to stay homes. In reality Taliban have not changed, and the atrocities on
women started. Social media and news channel are showing where Taliban fired a
person who wanted to jump from the wall of airport and three thieves were
publicly shaved.
The condition of minorities is more pitiable. Hindus
and Sikhs are taking shelters in temples and Gurudwaras and afraid of their
lives and the honour of their females. Several of them want to migrate to India
and waiting for the opportunity.
Now after capturing Afghanistan Taliban want
international support and recognition, hence they approached the countries from
where they expect early recognition. At present they expect recognition from
Pakistan, China, Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Taliban are projecting that they are
changed. Just few days back Taliban official spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid
emphasised in a T.V. interview that women are safe and they can work outside,
he appealed to government employees to return for the work and they would not
take revenge from anybody. The Taliban spokesman also mentioned that press can
work freely and they would not work against any country. In a tweet he also
mentioned that general public is happy because of arrival of Taliban. The
interview was taken by a lady and T.V. also showed a lady reporter. He also
claimed that there is peace in the country and no Afghan should leave the
country and the nation needs the talents of all the persons.
Pakistanis are happy because of Taliban victory, as
Islamabad does not want a powerful Afghanistan. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan openly
supported Taliban triumph and stated that they had shattered the “shackles of
slavery”. Pakistan is elated as winning of Taliban and defeat of ANDSF is a
clear victory on India even though it would strengthen Pakistani Taliban who
are fighting against Islamabad. ISI would also try to divert Taliban fighters
from Afghanistan to India as their work in Afghanistan is over.
China has a sizable Muslim population
including Uyghur Muslims, who have majority in Xinjiang province and are
fighting for independence. The border of Afghanistan touches the restive
Xinjiang province and China is scared that Taliban may extend assistance to
Uyghur secessionists. Hence China wants cordial relations with Taliban. Abdul
Ghani Baradar the founding member of Taliban and chief negotiator headed a
delegation to Taanjin China and met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on
July 28 and assured that Taliban would not help Uyghur terrorists. Chinese
official stated on 16 August that China would honour the “choice of Afghan
people.” It indicates that not only Pakistan but China may also recognise
Taliban soon. The Chinese foreign spokesperson also mentioned that Chinese
Embassy in Kabul would continue functioning normally. China would also try to
lessen India’s influence in Afghanistan with the help of Pakistan. Beijing may
also like to exploit vast mineral resources of Afghanistan.
Russia which also has sizable Muslim population and
common borders with Afghanistan wants to have cordial relations with Taliban.
Russian Foreign Minister stated few days back that Taliban are “sane people”
and they mentioned that they would not make difficulties for Central Asian
countries and they would fight with The Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant (ISIL) officially know as Islamic State. Taliban delegations also visited
Russia in March as well as in July 2021. In fact, Russia is negotiating with
Taliban since 2017 and both have good equations. Russian ambassador to
Afghanistan is also meeting Taliban leaders.
Few analysts also claim that United States is
worried because of phenomenal rise of China particularly on economic field and
if U.S. does not take remedial measures, it may lose its lone super power
status. Hence U.S. along with its allies is putting several restrictions on
China. U.S. and its allies are constantly assisting Taiwan, recently a French
warship also anchored in Taiwan. Naval ships of other U.S. allies may also
visit Taiwan. It is claimed that such a smooth and rapid victory of Taliban
indicates that there was a deal between U.S. and Taliban. Mullah Abdul Ghani
Baradar who was in Pakistani prison from February 2010 was released from jail
under U.S. pressure in 2018 so that negotiations can be held with Taliban.
On one hand by exiting from Kabul U.S. is saving
lot of its resources and also wants to drag China in Afghanistan as Taliban are
unpredictable and few Taliban groups would certainly help Uyghur Muslims while
few Taliban may sabotage Chinese projects in Pakistan. In that case if Chinese
forces with active assistance of Pakistan enters Afghanistan, then it may meet
the same fate of USSR and later of U.S.
The U.S. watchers also claim that President Biden
may strengthen the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and will like that
India plays an important role in it. China considers India as potential threat
hence India should also take counter measures.
In view of the changed circumstances India also has
to plan its strategy in Afghanistan. India should try to have negotiated
settlement with Taliban and if Taliban desires Delhi may continue with its
developmental projects. However, agreement or promises of Taliban cannot be
trusted as the influence of Pakistan on Taliban cannot be over-emphasised and
ISI would certainly try to damage Indian interests in Afghanistan.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United
Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
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Will U.S. Troops Withdrawal From Afghanistan Have
Repercussion On India?
Jai
Kumar Verma
New
Delhi. 17 April 2021. It looks
like that the end to the longest war US has fought is near. President Joe Biden
recently announced that all American combat troops would be withdrawn from
Afghanistan by 11 September 2021, which will be the twentieth anniversary of
the terrorist attacks on World Trade Centre and Pentagon by the Wahhabi
terrorist outfit Al-Qaeda. This war in Afghanistan saw 2,400 American soldiers
getting fatally wounded and it cost more than two trillion dollars to the
exchequer.
A majority of American government’s military advisers are against the
withdrawal and feel that there would be resurgence of the terrorist threat
while U.S. intelligence reported that the Afghan National Defense and Security
Forces (ANDSF) will be unable to face the onslaught of Taliban but still Al
Qaeda and other terrorist organisations are in no position to strike U.S. from
Afghanistan. A senior American official mentioned that the troop withdrawal
will start from 1 May and will end before the symbolic date of 11
September.
A lot of water has flown under the bridge since President George Bush
with overwhelming national and international support attacked Afghanistan to
punish al Qaeda chief Osma bin Laden as he was hidden in Afghanistan by Taliban
who were ruling the country.
Zabihullah Mujahid a Taliban spokesman stated that “We are not agreeing
with delay after May 1”, he also mentioned that “Any delay after May 1 is not
acceptable to us.”. U.S. made it clear that U.S. forces would be repositioned
in the area and will keep a watch on Taliban that they adhere to the commitment
of not carrying out a terrorist threat to U.S. or Europe. However, it will not
be easy for U.S. troops to protect Afghan government from outside. It would
also be difficult for U.S. to keep watch on Taliban about their links with
terrorist outfits. U.S. is maintaining array of air bases in the gulf, a
regional air headquarters at Qatar and an important air base in Jordon. But
still launching air attacks from distance may be difficult.
Few Afghan watchers mention that U.S. will withdraw the forces but will
launch clandestine operations through contractors, serving and retired
officials of National Directorate of Security (NDS) which is part of Afghan
National Security Forces (ANSF). These special operations would be launched
against al Qaeda, Islamic State and may be against Taliban if they try to
damage American interests. The fate of President Ashraf Ghani and his
government is uncertain.
The negotiations between U.S. and Taliban which started in Qatar in
September are more or less standstill hence the new rounds of 10-day
peace-talks are expected to start in Turkey from 24 April. The purpose of
renewed negotiations is to get a solution so that the outline of new government
can be formulated. However, it appears to be difficult as Taliban are convinced
that Americans are determined to leave early because of domestic pressure and
once they leave, they can overthrow the Afghan regime and capture power. In
recent past Taliban have increased their domain and Afghan forces had to take
help of American air power. Within hours of Turkey’s announcement Taliban made it
clear that they would not participate in any negotiation until all foreign
troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan.
Analysts also claim that as deadline of return of U.S. troops extended
Biden administration would press for the release of 7,000 Taliban prisoners.
But Afghan government is against release of more prisoners as the released
prisoners joined Taliban and attacking Afghan forces. There are about 2,500
U.S. soldiers, about 1,000 additional Special Forces personnel and about 7,000
foreign forces mainly NATO troops are in Afghanistan.
Antony Blinken U.S. Secretary of State made an unannounced visit to
Afghanistan on 15 April, during the visit he discussed about the withdrawal of
U.S. led NATO troops from war-ravaged Afghanistan by 11 September with President
Ghani. Blinken assured Ghani that U.S. is still committed to Afghanistan. He
stated that “I wanted to demonstrate with my visit the ongoing commitment of
the United States to the Islamic Republic and the people of Afghanistan”.
Nonetheless Taliban criticised the U.S. decision of delaying the departure and
mentioned that it was a “clear violation of the Doha agreement” and they
admonished that as U.S. has violated the agreement hence, they will be
responsible for future consequences and not the Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate.
NATO also announced about the withdrawal of its
troops.
The Biden administration is also shifting its focus from
counterinsurgency operations to military and economic competition from China,
an aggressive and hostile Russia, nuclear programmes of North Korea and Iran.
Beside these international pressures there are domestic compulsions also. Hence
Afghanistan’s importance has considerably dwindled in comparison to other
issues. Although few analysts mention that the Afghan government will crumble
after the departure of foreign troops.
The departure of U.S. led NATO troops from Afghanistan will put enormous
pressure on India, as after their withdrawal Pakistan supported Taliban will
grab power and it would become a safe haven for the diverse terrorist outfits.
Lisa Curtis an important official of Trump administration stated that “Regional
countries, especially India, will have tremendous concerns about the US pull
out from Afghanistan and the likelihood of a Taliban resurgence in the
country”. Curtis also mentioned that the terrorists of Lashkar-e-Taiba and
Jaish-e-Mohammad were trained for terrorist operations in India including the
2001 parliament attack in New Delhi. There was also close cooperation between
the Taliban and terrorists who hijacked Indian plane in 1999.
Husain Haqqani former Pakistan Ambassador in U.S. also stated that
“India will worry about Taliban controlled territory being a safe haven for
terrorists again.” Pakistan assisted Haqqani network which is avidly anti-India
will play a pivotal role in Afghan politics and it will target Indian assets in
Afghanistan. India succeeded in investing in Afghanistan because of the
presence of U.S. led NATO troops which gave some stability in the country.
After departure of foreign troops, the stability in the country may also
disappear.
After departure of foreign troops, the terrorism would increase,
although U.S. Taliban agreement, which is also at stake, mentions that Taliban
will preclude terrorist organisations from operating from Afghanistan and will
stop any attack on U.S. and Europe. However firstly Taliban are not capable to
prevent all terrorist outfits from indulging in terrorist activities and
secondly the agreement stops terrorist attacks only on U.S. and Europe and not
India. The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has undeniable clout on Haqqani
network hence the possibility of terrorist attacks on India cannot be
overruled. India is involved in developmental projects for which stability is
necessary, nevertheless as power will be shared between Taliban and Ghani
government hence the chances of stability are remote.
Although it will be difficult, but India should try to inculcate
friendship with Taliban representatives. The U.S. troops will stay up to 11
September hence India should immediately appoint a special envoy who will try
to safeguard Indian interests by coordinating with Taliban, U.S., and Afghan
government.
India should continue training and arming Afghan security forces and
should also launch long-term capacity building programmes. India’s cooperation and
assistance to National Directorate of Security should continue and should share
as much intelligence as possible. As Afghanistan is also suffering with
coronavirus pandemic, India should also help the country with vaccines,
medicines, and knowhow.
India should also try to expand its cooperation with other neighbouring
countries of Afghanistan especially Russia and Iran. Although Pakistan is
totally hostile, but some workable understanding is feasible with China.
Although U.S. troops would leave Afghanistan but still it will retain some
influence there, hence India should also cooperate with Washington as it is
also keen that India play an important role in war-ravaged
Afghanistan.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United
Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The
views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
Hopes shattered.Ashraf GhaniThe two leaders meet By Jai Kumar Verma Feb 27, 2020
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