Home › Spotlight › Is it the devil & the deep
sea situation for Japan?
Is It The Devil & The Deep Sea
Situation For Japan?
- East &
South China Seas dominate Biden-Suga talks
The Author
By Jai Kumar Verma
New Delhi. 26 April 2021. All geo-political eyes were on Washington when Japanese Prime
Minister Yoshihide Suga met United States President Joe Biden
recently. Both the leaders are new to their hot seats and are still settling
down. And the Japanese PM’s first overseas visit to US reiterated that the two
geo-political allies are friends indeed.
This summit amidst corona times focussed on expansionist
China who is not only threatening Taiwan but attacked India and
shows its strength in South China Sea as well as East China sea. The meeting
was also Biden’s first in-person meeting with a foreign leader after taking
over as the president of U.S. in January 2021.
Both the leaders held a joint press conference in the Rose Garden
of White House in which Biden stresses on the U.S. promises about
the defence of Japan and made it clear that the U.S. is Japan’s treaty ally,
and they would “prove that democracies can still commit and win.” The bonhomie
was visible between the two leaders.
Suga informed that both of them also talked about “China’s
influence over the peace and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific, and the world at
large”. Suga further mentioned that “We agreed to oppose any attempts to change
the status quo by force or coercion in the East and South China Seas and
intimidation of others in the region.” Japanese Prime Minister also
commented that “we agreed on the necessity for each of us to engage in frank
dialogue with China, and in so doing, to pursue stability of international relations,
while upholding universal values.”
Japan is in difficult situation about its relations with U.S. and China.
U.S. guarantees the security of Japan while its economy depends largely on
China. U.S. and Japan had signed the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security
in 1951 at San Francisco, which was amended in 1960 in Washington DC
which states that in case of any attack on either Japan or on U.S.
forces in Japan, both countries together will face the danger and combat the
enemy. The treaty also provides that U.S. can maintain military bases in Japan
however Americans should not interfere in the domestic politics of the country.
Although the treaty was for 10 years but there was a provision that it will
continue unless one party gives one year notice for the dissolution of the
treaty, which is still continuing.
On the other hand, Japan is China’s third biggest trading partner, and
the current trade is about $317 billion. China which is Japan’s biggest export
market accounts for more than 20 percent of Japan’s total trade. Japan’s
investment in China is more than $ 124 billion at the end of 2018. In 2018
about 8.4. million Chinese visited Japan and spent about $13 billion. At
present about 800 thousand Chinese students are studying in Japan. Few months
ago Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister in an bilateral
talk had agreed to increase the economic cooperation to minimise the ill effect
of pandemic.
Prime Minister Suga mentioned in the joint communique with President
Biden about peace and stability in Taiwan and it also urged to solve the
dispute amicably. It is the first time after 1969 when Japanese Prime Minister
mentioned Taiwan with United States in a joint communique. In 1969 Richard
Nixon and Eisaku Sato had mentioned Taiwan in the joint statement. Suga also
mentioned that he and President Biden talked about their lives and careers. He
contended that “I think we were able to establish a good relationship of
trust.”
It appears that Biden administration feels that China is progressing
very fast and soon it will challenge the lone super power status of the U.S.
hence China needs to be managed carefully. U.S. is withdrawing the troops from
Afghanistan so that more attention can be given to East Asia.
Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a
90-minute-long telephonic conversation with his Japanese counterpart before
Japanese Prime Minister’s visit to U.S.A. Wang Yi gave a strong message and a
‘timely reminder’ that Japan should not gang up with “certain superpower”
against China. Wang told that China has done its best to maintain bilateral
ties and now Tokyo being an independent country should not be carried away by
any country which is biased towards China. Wang also stated that Tokyo should
not interfere in the matters related to Hongkong and Xinjiang which are
internal matters of China.
According to Global Times Wang Jian an expert with the Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences mentioned that the phone call was a clear warning that Japan
should not conspire with U.S. against China. U.S. does not want cordial
relations between Japan and China. Beijing also threatened that China-Japan
ties will go down sharply if Japan is involved in the Taiwan question. China
also warned that Japan besides U.S. is also building up military ties with
other countries. A British aircraft carrier would take part in joint exercise
with the U.S. and Japan this year. Japan and Germany’s foreign and defence
ministers would hold two plus two dialogue on line in April.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), which is known as the Quad
has four members including Japan, U.S., India, and Australia. Quad was
constituted on the initiative of Japan and the alliance is to defend against
the expansionist designs of China. President Xi Jinping has made
wide-spread territorial claims and also deployed ships and frigates in South
and East China seas. According to Taiwanese Defence Ministry 25 Chinese
war planes intruded into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone on 12 April
which is a major breach in Taiwan’s airspace.
In view of Chinese aggressive posture Suga was eager to meet Biden and
the one-to-one meeting was fixed despite COVID 19 pandemic. In the joint
statement besides Taiwan, they also expressed concern about human right
violations in Hong Kong and about persecution of Muslim minority groups
especially Uighur Muslims residing in Xinjiang Autonomous Region in Northwest
China. Although Suga tried to be cautious not to hurt China but he was more
outspoken in comparison to his predecessors. Besides the historical differences
between Japan and China there are disputes pertaining to Japan controlled
Senkaku Islands on which China stakes claim. Taiwan is also an issue of
difference, Japanese- American security treaty, Japanese chemical weapons
discarded in China and issue of war reparations are also bone of contention
between Japan and China. Japan is also concerned as China has developed
military installations on disputed territories in the South China Sea.
U.S. ships are regularly patrolling in the area although China claims
the area as its territory. Biden has approached U.S. allies so that a joint
front can be made against China. Suga also planned to visit India and
Philippines in late April and early May but the visits had to be postponed due
to spread of coronavirus pandemic. It appears that Japan is afraid of China’s
expansionist policies and wants international assistance especially of U.S. to
counter China. Suga also wanted to visit India as China has border dispute with
India and Delhi stood firm against China in border clashes.
A look at Japan’s situation gives a feeling that the Asian giant is in
the devil and the deep sea situation. Both US and China are important to it ,
and it will have to walk on a tight rope. Security dependency on US and
economic on China makes Japan akin to a tomato in the geopolitical sandwich.
But probably Suga will find a way to manage this situation with ease just as
his predecessor did.
(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based
strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The
Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the
article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Home › Spotlight › Will Biden in White House
strengthen Indo-US Relations?
Will Biden In White House Strengthen
Indo-US Relations?
By
Jai Kumar Verma
New
Delhi. 14 November 2020. The US presidential
election is not only significant for United States, but it is important across
the globe as policies emanating from Washington impact the whole world. As the
relation between two principal democracies of the world is strengthening, the
result of US presidential elections were eagerly awaited in India too. Now the
change in White House is imminent hence New Delhi is also analysing this
transformation and its impact on India.
Joe Biden won the US presidential election, and in all probability, he
will take oath as 46th President of United
States of America on 20 January 2021. Biden who also worked as Vice President
with Barak Obama always promoted close relationship with India. In 2006, three
years before becoming Vice President, Biden stated that “My dream is that in
2020, the two closest nations in the world will be India and the United
States.”
Biden played a pivotal role as Chairman
of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee as well as Vice President to improve
US India relations. In 2008 Biden convinced both Democrats as well as
Republicans to accept nuclear deal with India. Biden as Vice President
supported the expansion of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and Indian
membership in UNSC. Obama-Biden government made India a “Major Defence Partner”
of USA which made India entitle to get advance and critical technology which
helped India to strengthen its defence forces.
In 2016 Obama-Biden government also signed Logistics Exchange Memorandum
of Agreement (LEMOA) which was the first out of three foundational pacts which
are necessary for close defence relationship between India and USA. LEMOA is important as now Indian military can get supplies of spare
parts and services from US bases. LEMOA is also useful for Navies of both the
countries as they are working together in India-Pacific. Later India signed
Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic
Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation (BECA) with USA during the tenure of President Trump.
The cooperation on handling terrorism
would also be strengthened between India and US during Biden presidency. The
policy paper released by president elect Biden during his campaign mentions
that “Biden believes there can be no tolerance for terrorism in South Asia –
cross-border or otherwise”. India is the prime victim of cross-border terrorism
while Pakistan is the main sponsor of it. The document also mentions that US
would push India to become a permanent member of UN.
In olden days US was
equidistant with India and Pakistan and in many cases, it’s
slant towards Pakistan was evident. However, now the situation has changed and
India has become much more important than Pakistan, but Islamabad has become
significant because of Afghanistan. Pakistan bestowed ‘Hilal-e-Pakistan’ to
Biden which is second highest civilian honour of Pakistan. Islamabad feels that
its relations with Washington will improve during Biden’s
presidency.
The policy paper issued by Biden also
mentions that his administration will give high priority in strengthening the
US-India relationship. The paper mentioned that “No common global challenge can
be solved without India and the U.S. working as responsible partners. Together,
we will continue strengthening India’s defence and capabilities as a
counter-terrorism partner, improving health systems and pandemic response, and
deepening cooperation in areas such as higher education, space exploration, and
humanitarian relief.” It also mentioned that “As the world’s oldest and
largest democracies, the US and India are bound together by our shared
democratic values: fair and free elections, equality under the law, and the
freedom of expression and religion. These core principles have endured
throughout each of our nations’ histories and will continue to be the source of
our strength in the future”.
Both Republicans and Democrats are
realising the aggressive behaviour of China and the way it is progressing
economically as well as enhancing its defence capabilities very soon it may
threaten the lone superpower status of US. Hence US is not only supporting
Taiwan but also strengthening its relationship with India as a counterweight to
China. The Trump administration was very vocal in supporting India against
China in the current border standoff. It is expected that Biden administration
will also follow the same policy. However, Biden being a seasoned politician,
he and his team is expected to use a mild language, but it had to oppose China
and, in that process, will have to support India. The Biden administration may
renegotiate trade and other economic issues with China.
Trump administration adopted a
stringent policy towards immigration specially H1B visas which is for skilled
professionals. This stern immigration policy affected India as large number of
Indians apply for H1B visas. Democrats are liberal on immigration and it is
expected that Biden administration will make the immigration laws softer and it
will benefit Indians. It is also visualised that he may adopt family-based
immigration laws.
Trump tailed protectionist policy as
his slogan was ‘Make America great again’ while it is expected that Biden may
adopt internationalist policy. Trump disregarded The World Trade Orgnisation
(WTO) which regulates the international trade between different countries.
Trump administration was also obstructing the principle of free trade however
now it is expected that Biden may inverse some policies which may benefit
India. Biden administration may re-join the Paris Climate Agreement which India
supports. Biden government may like to restore the funding of World Health
Orgnisation (WHO) which is important in the time of corona pandemic.
However, it is expected that Biden may adopt an inflexible policy
towards alleged human right violations especially in Jammu & Kashmir. Vice
President Kamala Harris is a big supporter of Human Rights. Few Democrats which
are known as ‘progressive’ may raise the issue of human right violations in
J&K. Hence India needs to counter Kashmiri secessionists and Pakistani
propaganda about false allegations of human right violations in the state.
Although President Trump offered more than once to mediate between India and
Pakistan to resolve Kashmir issue, but his administration was not much critical
of India on human right issue.
Few Congressmen criticised Indian government for defanging article 370
and passing of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) but the Trump administration had
not taken the issue seriously. Biden administration especially Vice President
elect Kamala Harris may criticise Indian government for human right violations
in J&K as well as about the issue of CAA. Biden administration may also
criticise India for implementation of National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam.
The US watchers claim that the overall
policies of the country will not change much as it can be seen that there were
several differences between the previous US presidents like Donald Trump, Barak
Obama, and George W Bush but all the presidents worked for the stronger India
as it was in the interest of US. As there is a strong government in India and
Indian defence forces have successfully stopped expansionist China’s invasion
the Biden administration would certainly extend assistance to India so that the
phenomenal rise of China can be curbed.
US is exporting arms and ammunition worth billions of dollars to India
and both countries have inculcated close strategic ties, hence Biden
administration would not be hostile to India because of Kashmir issue. If US
relations with Iran normalise, then US may lift the sanctions and India can
purchase cost-effective oil from Iran. Trump also raised tariffs on several
products imported from India and also withdrawn preferential treatment given to
India. Biden may relax some restrictions. India may hope that relations between
both the democracies would further invigorate during Biden’s presidency.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services
Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in
the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/pompeos-whirlwind-tour-a-stern-message-to-china-or-an-election-strategy/
Home › Spotlight › Pompeo’s Whirlwind Tour A Stern
Message To China Or An Election Strategy?
Pompeo’s Whirlwind Tour A Stern Message
To China Or An Election Strategy?
Pompeo
starts his whilwind tour from India
By
Jai Kumar Verma
New
Delhi. 01 November 2020. Mike Pompeo the
U.S. Secretary of State made a whirlwind tour of five nations just a week
before the presidential elections where former Vice President Joe Biden is
giving a tough fight. The voting would be held on November 3. Pompeo and US
Defence Secretary Mark Esper made a 2+2 dialogue on October 26 and 27 with
their counterparts in New Delhi and after that Pompeo visited Sri Lanka on
October 27, Maldives 28, Indonesia on 29 and Vietnam on October 29 & 30
which was a last-minute addition in his itinerary. Pompeo through his
boisterous tour gave a stern message that free nations want to work together so
that the expansionist threat of China can be impeded.
It was the third two-plus-two
ministerial dialogue which emphasised on defence information sharing, defence
trade, enhancement in the interaction between the defence forces of both the
countries and an overall cooperation pertaining to regional security.
BECA
signed
In 2+2 dialogue between Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Minister of
External Affairs S Jaishankar and Pompeo and Esper signed Indo-US Basic
Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). BECA would permit both countries to
access geospatial data including classified data which will include maps,
charts as well as imageries. It will also help India’s long-range missiles and
drones to hit the targets with precision.
Now India can also use the data
provided by navigation satellite of US which provides extremely accurate data.
It is very important as our strategic planners will have information
about the preparations our adversaries including China and Pakistan are making
against India. It will help Delhi to manage not only Indo-China border but also
Indo-Pakistan border from where Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) infiltrates
terrorists. US signs BECA with selected countries with which they have close
defence relations. Now India becomes the “major defence partner” of USA.
Besides BECA other agreements on different fields including Covid-19,
counterterrorism and earth sciences were also inked.
On one hand signing of BECA gave a
blunt message to China as well as Pakistan and on the other hand it also
concluded signing of the three important US defence agreements. First document
Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) was signed in 2016 while the
Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) was inked in 2018
and BECA was signed in the current trip. Both countries have also signed
Industrial Security Annex (ISA), which would also deepen defence and strategic
ties between both the countries. Pompeo stated that “The United States will
stand with the people of India as they confront threats to their freedom and
sovereignty.”
The visiting US Secretaries also met
Ajit Doval National Security Advisor and Modi the Prime Minister of India.
Besides discussing about coronavirus pandemic, they also discussed about
security and defence cooperation. The Trump administration gave a tough message
to China and an encouraging message to India and other countries, as just
sometime before starting 2+2 meeting, Washington announced that US Congress
plans the sale of Harpoon missile systems to Taiwan worth $2.37 billion. It
will be the second arms sale to Taiwan within two weeks. As a reaction to first
arms deal between US and Taiwan, China proclaimed sanctions to defence
contractors.
Pompeo
with Indian PM Narendra Modi
At present there are several issues
between US and China including spread of coronavirus, trade imbalance,
technology theft by Chinese agents in US, human right violations in Hong Kong
and Tibet, atrocities on Muslims especially Uighur Muslims, sale of arms to
Taiwan, Chinese expansionist moves towards its smaller neighbours. Tajikistan
had to abandon 1,000 sq kms to China, Beijing also occupied few villages of
Nepal and usurped whole of Tibet. Sri Lanka surrendered Hambantota port while
besides Gwadar port of Pakistan several other areas of the country are also at
stake. China also occupied large area of India and also claiming much more. US
understands that President Xi Jinping is in hurry to make China a superpower
hence threatening its neighbours and occupying their territories.
The third round of 2+2 is important for
India as it came when India is involved in standoff with China where the
possibility of a war cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless Pompeo made it clear that
Trump administration wants to help India by isolating China. The relationship
between US and India is strengthening and bilateral defence trade has enhanced
to $15 billion in 2019.The Two-plus-two is also important as it is a
relationship between two biggest democracies of the world.
Pompeo also met Indian foreign minister
at Tokyo early this month during the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)
meeting which is considered as a counterbalance to China. Initially India was
not taking keen interest in Quad as it never wanted to annoy Beijing but as
China attacked, India is taking more interest in Quad as it is essential for
the security of the country. The fact is that as China’s aggressiveness would
enhance, Quad will be strengthened. China’s belligerent activities can be
witnessed from Africa to Himalayas as well as in South China sea hence it is
imperative that like-minded nations formulate a joint front to fight Communist
China which does not respect the sovereignty and integrity of other countries.
India has also invited Australia together with US and Japan to
participate in Malabar naval exercise scheduled to be held in November. The
invitation to Australia is
important as it indicates that regional security should be strengthened by
joining more partners.
Sri Lankan
Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena
with Pompeo : Courtesy AP
Pompeo went to Sri Lanka from India but
before leaving for Colombo he said that US “will stand with the people of India
as they confront threats to their sovereignty and to their liberty”. He also
mentioned in a press conference that “Our leaders and our citizens see with
increasing clarity that the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is no friend to
democracy, rule of law, transparency, freedom of navigation and free and open
and prosperous Indo-Pacific.” The joint statement issued on 27 October
“denounced the use of terrorist proxies and strongly condemned cross border
terrorism in all its forms. They emphasised the need for concerted action
against all terrorist networks, including al-Qaeda, ISIS/Daesh,
Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen. The
Ministers called on Pakistan to take immediate, sustained and irreversible
action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist
attacks, and to expeditiously bring to justice the perpetrators and planners
of all such attacks, including 26/11 Mumbai, Uri, and Pathankot.”
It was also decided that the virtual
meeting of India-US Counter-Narcotics Working Group would be held before the
end of 2020. The ministers agreed to augment the cooperation in fighting
Covid-19 by developing vaccines, ventilators and other medical equipment.
All the three countries Sri Lanka,
Maldives and Indonesia are important to Chinese president Xi Jinping’s dream
project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) under which China would invest in about
70 countries and international organisations. China had high stakes in Sri
Lanka as it has already occupied Hambantota port and also constructing a
terminal at the Colombo port. Besides this China is involved in several other
infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka. Pompeo tried to impress upon Colombo that
US works as a partner, as a friend while China works as a “predator”. However
Chinese embassy in Sri Lanka criticised Pompeo for his anti-China remarks and
mentioned even before the arrival of Pompeo that US is interfering in China-Sri
Lanka relations. Gotabaya Rajapaksa Sri Lankan President contradicted Pompeo’s
statement and mentioned that China gave vital assistance to Sri Lanka in
developing the infrastructure. He also mentioned that Sri Lanka will welcome US
assistance but made it clear that China has not laid any debt trap.
Pompeo
with Maldivian Foreign Minister
Abdulla Shahid
Courtesy : Foreign Ministry Maldives
In September this year US and Maldives
have signed a “framework defence and security agreement”. Pompeo in the current
visit stated that China continues with its “threatening behaviour”. He also
pronounced about the opening of US embassy in Maldives. In 2013 India averted
US-Maldives defence treaty but now in the changed circumstances India also
welcomed it. The present president Ibrahim Mohamed Solih who was elected in
2018 is not pro-China although his predecessor Abdullah Yameen was pro-China
and anti-India. The extreme Islamic groups oppose close relationship of
Maldives with India and US but at present there are cordial relations between
India and Maldives.
Courtesy :
id.usembassy.gov
Pompeo’s with Indonesian President Joko Widodo
After Maldives, Pompeo reached Jakarta,
Indonesia which is also the headquarters of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN). China has laid claims on the territories of few ASEAN members
too. Pompeo appreciated ASEAN and its members for resisting the expansionist
designs of China. Pompeo also met the Joko Widodo President of Indonesia.
Pompeo concluded his anti-China tour by visiting Vietnam in the
afternoon of 29 October. Vietnam has dispute with China. In other countries
Pompeo remarked that the democratic countries of the world should be united
against communist China but in communist Vietnam he mentioned that US is with
Vietnam in its fight against China. The overt reason of the visit was to
celebrate the 25th anniversary
of normalisation of diplomatic relations while the covert reason was that Trump
is projecting his rival Joe Biden as weak on China while his administration has
adopted a stringent view on China which was behind the spread of coronavirus,
involved in human right violations and threatening its small neighbours.
US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo &
Vietnam’s Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh. Credit: AFP Photo
The normal American is also concerned
about China’s rising economic might as well as its trade surplus with US. There
is resentment in US as China is also threatening US superpower status. Hence
Trump is trying to convert anti-China sentiments in its favour by adopting
tough posture against China. Vietnam is not only strategically located but it
has old enmity with China hence it can become an important ally to prevent the
rising expansionist designs of China.
On one had the hurricane tour gave a
stern message to China and some solace to nations which are facing wrath of
Beijing. On the other hand, it may help President Trump in the forthcoming
elections. The analysts claim that even if Biden comes to power the current policy
would continue after some cosmetic changes only.
(Jai
Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services
Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in
the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)
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