Quad Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD, also known as the Quad)

 

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Quad Will Be Helpful But India Must Develop Capability to Face China

The recent in-person meeting of Quad members in the US agreed on regional and global cooperation on a range of issues, from Covid-19 to climate change to cyber security. And, without naming China, the four-nation alliance conveyed its resolve to keep the Indo-Pacific free and open for all

October 8, 2021EditorOpinion

By Jai Kumar Verma

US President Joe Biden hosted the first in-person summit of the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as the Quad) in Washington on September 24, 2021, which was attended by Prime Ministers of India, Australia, and Japan. The meeting took far reaching decisions pertaining to Covid-19, including financial assistance and increasing production and access to vaccines and drugs useful in containing the pandemic. The meeting also decided to initiate the Quad Infrastructure Coordination Group to provide quality infrastructure to the world.

The four-nation grouping discussed ambitious plans to counter climate change and announced initiatives such as construction of a green-shipping network to lower carbon emissions. The meeting decided to constitute a new working group that would share satellite data to help save earth and water. A Quad fellowship was also launched to enhance people to people contact.

In view of rising cyber threats, the members agreed to set up a Quad Senior Cyber Group comprising leading cyber experts to sort out problems relating to cyber security.

The members agreed to watch the developments in Pakistan as it played an important role in Afghanistan. The joint statement of Quad leaders mentioned that: “In South Asia, we will closely coordinate our diplomatic, economic, and human-rights policies towards Afghanistan and will deepen our counter-terrorism and humanitarian cooperation in the months ahead in accordance with UNSCR 2593. We reaffirm that Afghan territory should not be used to threaten or attack any country or to shelter or train terrorists, or to plan or to finance terrorist acts, and reiterate the importance of combating terrorism in Afghanistan.”

Prime Minister Modi mentioned the “Quad vaccine initiative” and talked about the need for a common international travel protocol, especially on Covid-19 vaccinations. India proposed to export 8 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine by October 2022.

The Quad leaders without naming China stated that the Indo-Pacific Region must be free and open. The joint statement cited that: “We will continue to champion adherence to international law, particularly as reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to meet challenges to the maritime rules-based order, including in the East and South China Seas. We affirm our support to small island states, especially those in the Pacific, to enhance their economic and environmental resilience.”

Prime Minister Modi mentioned the “Quad vaccine initiative” and talked about the need for a common international travel protocol, especially on Covid-19 vaccinations. India proposed to export 8 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine by October 2021

The joint statement also claimed that “Our commitment to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific is firm, and our vision for this partnership remains ambitious and far-reaching. With steadfast cooperation, we rise to meet this moment together.”

The Quad alliance seeks to contain a belligerent China, which in the recent past has become excessively aggressive, threatening its neighbours, and seeking full rights in East China Sea and South China Sea. The Quad member states have already participated in a joint naval exercise, while the US is also planning to invite Air Force officers of all Quad members for a joint exercise. All the Quad members have close trade and financial relations with China hence its name was not mentioned in the Joint Statement.

In view of China’s belligerent approach, all the countries insisted that the “Indo-Pacific” must remain a “free and open Indo Pacific” (FOIP) and the Quad emerged as a quiet solution to the problem. Although the Quad has projected several goals, the underlying idea is to counter China. The Quad emphasises on a region that is free and adheres to democratic values. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition is to dominate the world by implementing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Several developing countries will become a victim of the BRI if they fail to repay the loan of Chinese corporations. Chinese companies have stringent terms and conditions for giving loans. Sri Lanka was forced to give up its Hambantota port to China on a 99-year lease as it failed to repay the loan. Analysts predict that Pakistan would be the next victim as it would also default on the loan taken from China.

China is vehemently opposed to the Quad and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman has alleged that it is ganging up to suppress China’s progress. On September 30, at the virtual meeting to celebrate the 72^nd anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, Sun Weidong, the Chinese Ambassador in India, stated: “We should adhere to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, respect the core interests and major concerns of each other, uphold strategic autonomy, and refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs or engaging in any ‘alliance’ or ‘quasi alliance’ targeting the other.” China is gradually realising the power of the Quad and its capability to counter Beijing both on the economic as well as military fronts – hence its condemnation of the Quad.

Observers feel that in order to keep up the heat on China, the Quad nations should enhance cooperation in all fields and should continue with regular meetings at all levels. The Quad should also try to enlarge the cooperation with like-minded countries in Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Americas. However, the Quad’s membership should not be expanded much, else it would become a loose and ineffective alliance. The grouping can muster support from other similar alliances like the AUKUS (Australia, UK & US).

China is gradually realising the power of the Quad and its capability to counter Beijing both on the economic as well as military fronts – hence its condemnation of the Quad… Although several analysts doubt the Quad’s effectiveness, the alliance is working silently and enhancing confidence among its members

Although several analysts doubt the effectiveness of the Quad, the alliance is working silently and enhancing the confidence among its members. For instance, Japan’s Self-Defense Force (SDF) not only has close links with the US but is also increasing its collaboration. The US, Japan, and Australia have changed the route of their submarine cables and now it is closer to Taiwan. During the March 2021 Quad meeting, it was decided that Covid-19 vaccines for the US would be funded by Japan and manufactured in India.

For the US, the importance of Quad is considerably enhanced after the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan. Also, analysts feel, the US wants to impede the progress of China as it has become a threat to its superpower status.

The Quad is extremely important for India as new opportunities would emerge and it should try and take advantage of such openings. Not just the Quad members but other countries as well want to shift their manufacturing factories from China, and India should try to attract as much business as feasible. This can give a big impetus to its ‘Make in India’ programme.

The danger of an expansionist China can also be mitigated through the Quad, which is an alliance of countries that believe in democratic principles and are determined to keep the strategic Indo-Pacific region free from Chinese interference. The Quad provides a platform to India to challenge China, which has already occupied large chunks of contested border areas in the Himalayan region and lays claim to much more. China has already developed huge infrastructure on its side of the LAC and now objects when India tries to construct roads and bridges at the border for connectivity and troop movement.

China has been encircling India, as it considers the latter as its potential rival in Asia and the world. Hence New Delhi also needs to safeguard its interests and that is where the Quad countries can play a positive role. The defence cooperation between Quad members, including joint exercises, sharing of strategic information, joint patrols, and technology exchange, are all steps in that direction. India, which has been battling cross-border terrorism for long, stands to gain from the Quad countries’ cooperation in combating terrorism.

Nonetheless, India has to tread carefully as the Quad members have deep economic relations with China and it will not be easy for them to strain their ties with Beijing beyond a point. Hence India must develop its own capacity and capabilities to face China.

-The writer is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of the United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely of the author.

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Will The Quad Succeed in Countering China’s Aggressiveness?

The formation of the Quad gives a stern message to China that if it wants to become a superpower, it must adhere to international norms and should not threaten other countries. The Quad conveys a clear warning that the world, especially these countries, is ready to counter China’s expansionist moves

September 22, 2021EditorOpinion

By JK Verma

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be attending the first in-person meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD, also known as the Quad) on September 24 in the US, to be hosted by President Joe Biden. The meeting would also be attended by his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. In the forthcoming meeting, besides the aggressive actions of China, the leaders would also discuss the Covid-19 pandemic, evolving technologies, global climate change, etc.

The spokesman of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) mentioned that “The Summit would provide a valuable opportunity for dialogue and interactions among the Leaders, anchored in their shared vision of ensuring a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific region.”

The White House Press Secretary mentioned in the press release that Quad is the priority of the Biden-Harris Administration and “The Quad Leaders will be focused on deepening our ties and advancing practical cooperation on areas such as combating COVID-19, addressing the climate crisis, partnering on emerging technologies and cyberspace, and promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific.” As expected, China criticised the Quad and its Foreign Ministry spokesman mentioned that “China believes that any regional cooperation framework should follow the trend of the times and be conducive to mutual trust and cooperation among the countries in the region. It should not target any third party or harm their interests.”

On September 25 PM Modi would also address the 76th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. This will be the first in-person meeting between Modi and Biden though they met thrice virtually.

PM Modi’s visit to the US is important as the ground situation in the region has become volatile after the Taliban overthrew the elected government in Afghanistan. The Taliban are supported by Pakistan, a known terrorist state, hence the danger of terrorist attacks in India and all over world has increased manifold

Modi’s visit to the US is important as the ground situation in the region became volatile after the Taliban overthrew the elected government in Afghanistan. The Taliban are supported by Pakistan, which is known as a terrorist state, hence the danger of terrorist attacks in India and all over the world has increased manifold. Hence it is expected that all the leaders of Quad would discuss the security situation in the region. Though China has not recognised the Taliban so far, it is openly supporting it. At the same time, there is no peace in Afghanistan after its capture as different factions of the Taliban are fighting with each other.

Prime Minister Modi and President Biden will discuss several important issues hence Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla visited US and met important officials, including the Secretary of State, and chalked out strategic bilateral and regional issues on which discussions would be held. Nonetheless, in view of China’s aggressive behaviour, the main topic of discussion between Quad leaders and between Modi and Biden would be China.

The Quad countries are worried as China is trying to control international organisations like International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and World Health Organization (WHO). The world is also worried because of their dependence on China which has emerged as the world’s manufacturing hub.

The Quad countries are also worryingly reliant on China and they are economically more close to Beijing than with one another. In 2004-05 Japan became worried about its massive investments because of anti-Japan demonstrations in China, hence Tokyo wanted to diversify investment and India was a good choice. The Senkaku Islands are also a bone of contention between China and Japan. Japan is an ardent supporter of the Quad as it was the brainchild of Shinzo Abe, the former Prime Minister of Japan. In July this year, Tokyo agreed to share defence intelligence with India, Australia, and the UK. The intelligence is already shared with the US. Tokyo has also opened a new segment in its Ministry of Defence to strengthen the cooperation with Delhi and Canberra.

Being an expansionist country, China has already occupied a large chunk of Indian territory, but still claims much more. In 2017 there was a long standoff at Doklam between the armies of both the countries and again there were violent clashes in the Galwan area in which 20 Indian soldiers, including a Commanding Officer, were martyred. But valiant Indian soldiers before their death killed more than double PLA soldiers. After this clash, there were several skirmishes on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). India also banned 118 Chinese apps and is also trying to minimise Chinese imports.

The tension between China and Australia is increasing because of several reasons, including China’s aggressive policies in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan, uncalled for interference in Australian politics and educational institutes, and its onerous policies towards Hong Kong. China had put repressive trade restrictions on Australia when the latter demanded an independent probe into the origin and spread of the Coronavirus. China put restrictions on Australian wine, beef, and barley exports.

China is threatening the lone superpower status of the US and hence the latter is more eager to curb the phenomenal rise of China at present. The main contentious issues include violations and theft of intellectual property, trade imbalance, threat to Taiwan, human right abuses in China, particularly in the Xinjiang region, restrictions on press freedom, Coronavirus spread, Chinese aggressiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, etc. While the Quad members participate in India’s Malabar naval exercise, the US is also planning to conduct an exercise of air forces of all Quad members at its Andersen Air Force Base so that better coordination is developed between Quad countries. The US and UK are also assisting Australia in deploying nuclear-powered submarines for patrolling in the South China Sea.

The scope of Quad can be enhanced and few more countries like Vietnam, New Zealand and South Korea could also join the Quad after some time, but they would avoid direct confrontation with China. Besides these countries, the UK, Germany and France also want to enhance their cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Region hence they may also join Quad.

The Quad is a loose alliance where the interests of member countries differ with each other as all of them have close economic relations with China. They may not like to have direct hostility with China, which has emerged not only as a formidable economic power but also a major military power

The resolve of all four countries against China is strengthening. However, at present there is no need to convert it into a military alliance. It is important that they be ready to help each other in case of an armed conflict with China.

The Quad countries should also be careful because too much military cooperation would strengthen Beijing’s allegation that the Quad is a military alliance against China. Beijing calls it “the Asian version of NATO”. Moscow would also become suspicious and may align more towards Beijing. China may also try to build an organisation with Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to counter Quad.

China has become much more aggressive under President Xi Jinping not only within its borders but also outside the country. Xi Jinping is not only modernising his defence forces, but also increasing China’s naval presence in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.  Recently China has deployed its powerful 5,560-ton Hai Xun 03 warship in the South China Sea as it claims historical rights on large parts of that ocean region. In the recent past, the Chinese sank a Vietnamese fishing boat and there was also a standoff between a Chinese survey vessel and a Malaysian oil exploration vessel. China is using its economic might to achieve its political gains. Beijing is Canberra’s biggest trading partner while it is Tokyo’s second largest business ally.

The Quad is a loose alliance where the interests of member countries differ with each other as all of them have close economic relations with China. They may not like to have direct hostility with China, which has emerged not only as a formidable economic power but also a major military power. But the Quad gives a clear and stern message to China that if it wants to become a super power it must adhere to the international norms and should not threaten other countries of the world. The Quad conveys a clear message that the world, especially these countries, are ready to counter China’s expansionist moves.

-The writer is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of the United Services Institute of India and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely of the author.)