Russia Ukraine crisis

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/can-modis-diplomacy-end-the-russia-ukraine-war/ Can Modi’s Diplomacy End the Russia-Ukraine War? PM in a Private Meeting with the President of the Russian Federation, Mr. Vladimir Putin, in Moscow, Russia on July 08, 2024. By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 08 August 2024. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has prompted numerous countries, including China and India, to seek a mediator role to resolve the conflict. Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s high-profile visit to Russia and his planned forthcoming visit to Ukraine have brought attention to India’s potential as a key negotiator. However, this diplomatic effort has received mixed reactions from the international community, particularly from the West. India’s strategic position, its diplomatic efforts, and the challenges it faces in mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict do make it an important arbitrator, but will it be a successful, is the million-dollar question. All eyes were on Modi when he was in Moscow last month for the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit with President Putin. It was Modi’s first visit to Russia after the break of Russia-Ukraine war. If speculations are to be believed then Modi is planning to visit Ukraine in last week of August 2024. Modi’s travel to Russia drew harsh criticism from the West, and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy called it “a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts.” Modi’s visit was a “disappointment” in terms of “symbolism and timing,” according to Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, and Jake Sullivan, the United States’ National Security Advisor (NSA). India has been under heavy fire from the United States and its allies for its oil imports from Russia and its refusal to publicly denounce Russia for its invasion on Ukraine. The West believes that India is impeding their attempts to economically undermine Russia and isolate Moscow. Despite the fact that India is not protesting, analysts assert that Modi’s visit to Ukraine is to relieve pressure from the West. India finds itself in a precarious situation, unable to abandon its venerable and long-standing ally, Russia. In the past, the USSR supported India while the US was totally backing Pakistan, India’s fiercest adversary. When Modi recently visited Russia, President Putin gave him a hearty welcome. Additionally, Russia transfers technology to India that the United States and other nations do not. But Moscow’s reliance on Beijing has grown significantly as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the numerous sanctions imposed by the West. China and India dispute span borders but Beijing refuses to address border disputes and continues to claim multiple sections of Indian land. India made an effort to resolve the border conflict, but China prefers that India should ignore the border dispute and keep importing commodities from China and filling its coffers with foreign exchange. In 1962, India and China fought a war and later there were multiple conflicts and standoffs between the two nations. In addition to this China considers India its adversary in the region hence tries to win over its neighbours. Recently President Xi Jinping did not give much time to the visiting Bangladesh Prime Minister and her visit was not properly covered because she came to India twice in a very short interval. In view of enmity with China and Chinese closeness with Russia, India has to inculcate friendship with U.S. and other countries. India became member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as the Quad which is an alliance of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. The member countries claim that Quad is for Pacific Islands, Indian Ocean Region (IOR), South East Asia nonetheless Beijing alleges that this alliance is against China. India will not alienate itself from the west which is common ally against the expansionist adversary. The result of U.S. Presidential elections is also important. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, then the policies of President Biden would continue however if former President Trump becomes President, then the pressure on Zelenskyy will soar. In this case Ukraine may agree for truce on less stringent terms and the chances of success of India’s mediation efforts increases. China which has brought peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran is trying hard to work as an intermediary, but the west has already blamed that China is providing dual-use items to Russia in the current war with Ukraine. Hence Beijing is not considered as an impartial negotiator. However sometimes back Wang Yi Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs and a Politburo member had invited senior officials of Ukraine including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to China. Chinese Foreign Minister stated that although at present conditions are not ripe for peace negotiations but both countries have shown willingness to negotiate. Victor Orban Prime Minister of Hungary also shuttled between Moscow, Kyiv and Beijing to find a diplomatic solution of the war between Russia and Ukraine, but the west rejected him as he was close to Putin. The attitude of Washington is also not clear about India working as a negotiator between Moscow and Kyiv, although U.S. would prefer India’s mediation than China’s intervention. Modi clearly told Putin that peace is most important and the solution of war “cannot be found on the battlefield”. Foreign Minister Jaishankar also mentioned that “it’s important for everybody to do whatever they can to see if, in some way, something improves and a move out of the battlefield and into the conference table can take place.” On 14 June Modi and Zelenskyy had a bilateral meeting in Italy on the sidelines of G7 Summit. It was the second meeting as both the leaders had also met on the sidelines of G7 meeting in Japan, last year. The visit is not currently being confirmed by the Ukrainian Embassy in India or the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). Nevertheless, MEA is attempting damage management in a number of ways. MEA representatives discussed the problem with a number of western officials. The Indian External Affairs Minister called the Ukrainian Foreign Minister and discussed “bilateral relationship”; the Ukrainian ambassador in New Delhi was also summoned for a discussion. The national security advisor for India spoke over the phone with their counterparts in the US and Ukraine. In the final week of March 2024, Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, paid a visit to India. It is expected that Modi would go through Poland to Ukraine, where he would also have a meeting with Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland. Modi’s trip to Ukraine would be noteworthy in a number of ways. First of all, it would lessen the criticism from the West and Ukraine on Modi’s first visit following his third consecutive term as prime minister—unusual for a democratic nation. Although Modi has not disclosed anything about the idea, a spokesman for the Kremlin stated that Modi had presented Putin with a peace plan during his most recent visit to Russia. Jaishankar also worked out a proposal which Modi would discuss with Zelenskyy during his Ukraine visit. Russia and Ukraine are coming to terms with the fact that neither country can win this conflict, which has left Ukraine decimated and caused Russia to suffer both politically, internationally as well as militarily. Therefore, both nations may want to put an end to the hostilities. The issue is that Ukraine would demand the return of all captured territory, while Russia would prefer to keep all of the land it has taken. Ukraine to join NATO would remain the bone of contention. Left to right: Pekka Haavisto (Minister of Foreign Affairs, Finland) with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Antony J. Blinken (US Secretary of State) It is anticipated that Modi would emphasise the need for diplomacy and talks to end the conflict during his visit to Ukraine. India’s reputation would rise in the world if it were to successfully resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but the question remains as to what offer India should make that would satisfy both parties and their supporters. India’s potential role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war highlights its complex position in global geopolitics. While India has longstanding ties with Russia, it also faces pressure from the West to take a more critical stance against Moscow. Prime Minister Modi’s recent diplomatic engagements with both Russia and Ukraine underscore India’s commitment to peace and diplomacy. However, the success of India’s mediation efforts will depend on its ability to present a viable peace proposal that satisfies both Russia and Ukraine, as well as their respective allies. If successful, India’s stature in the international arena could significantly rise, but the path to peace remains fraught with challenges. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com) https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/modi-putin-bonhomie-at-moscow-reiterates-ag Modi-Putin bonhomie at Moscow reiterates age old friendship PM in a Private Meeting with the President of the Russian Federation, Mr. Vladimir Putin, in Moscow, Russia on July 08, 2024. • Delhi & Moscow are not drifting towards rival camps By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 19 July 2024. Has Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi been treading on a thin fragile rope of balancing India’s act in world geopolitics today? His two-days visit to Russia cleared quite a lot of air over rumours of changed Indo-Russian ties from strong to weak. PM arrives at Moscow Airport, in Russia on July 08, 2024. Modi on one hand has been trying to lessen the western distrust on India and on the other hand, this trip has demonstrated to Putin that Russia and India are still all-weather friends. “No matter how low the temperature dips below zero degrees during Russian winter, India-Russia friendship has always remained in ‘plus’ and been full of warmth. This relationship is built on the strong foundation of mutual trust and mutual respect,” Modi said. On the face of it the world felt that both the friendly nations were drifting towards rival camps. The dependency of Russia on China has visibly growing because of multiple sanctions imposed by west on Russia. China Russia bilateral trade has enhanced to $240 billion. While Delhi’s bilateral trade with Moscow also grew rapidly but it was approximately $66 billion only. Out of $66 billion India’s export was only about $ 4 billion. Not only this Russia has many needs which can be fulfilled by China while India has very less things to be exported to Russia, hence billions of Indian rupees are piling up in Russia. India was concerned about rising Russian dependence on China as Beijing is threatening several countries including India, which has long standing border disputes. India has not forgotten when in June 2022 at Galwan Valley, Ladakh, India lost 20 soldiers including Colonel Santosh Babu (37), although China has not revealed figures about the death of its soldiers but according to a rough estimate about 40 Chinese soldiers were killed by valiant Indian army. Russia is still the biggest supplier of arms and ammunition to India and is a vital source of energy & space technology. Hence India is cautious that Russia does not become dependent on China. Putin also wants to show to India and the world that Russia is not a vassal state of China, and it is still a great power. On the other hand, Russia is also concerned about the increasing friendship between India and western countries especially United States as U.S. has not only put several sanctions against Russia but also trying to isolate Moscow. But Putin had summit-level meetings with China, India & Turkey and not to forget his sojourns with friends like North Korea and Vietnam. India is purchasing fighter jets from France, UAVs from U.S. and several other weaponry from U.S., Israel, France and other western countries. India has also joined Quadrilateral Security Dialogue popularly known as Quad which is a strategic security alliance between Australia, India, Japan and USA. Quad is basically against China which is threatening all these countries as well as other countries too. Russia is visibly happy on Modi’s visit and Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that west is feeling “jealous” about Russia India ties. The current visit has strengthened the relationship between both the nations and the discussions were held so that India can import more Russian oil and nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants. Modi’s visit is important as it coincided with the NATO meetings began in Washington DC from 9 July. NATO meeting is held to mark the 75th anniversary of the western alliance which was constituted against the then Soviet Union. The meeting was held primarily to discuss Russian invasion on Ukraine in 2022. All 32 NATO members attended the meeting. The NATO countries are intensely against Moscow’s invasion on Ukraine, but India has not criticised Putin but told him that this is not time for war and the issue should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy. On 8th July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took to his X (previous twitter) handle to post photographs of a children’s hospital in Kyiv, which was hit by Russian missile. Zelensky also criticised Modi Putin meeting and mentioned that “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.” It is the first bilateral visit of Modi after he was sworn in for a third term, he broke the tradition of visiting South Asian neighbours first after taking oath of office. The visit gave a clear message to Putin that India honours its relationship with Moscow and has not joined western camp against Russia, although India’s collaboration with U.S. is at its highest level. India’s relations with U.S. are still strong and Delhi may like to project that because of its friendship with both Moscow and the West it can work as mediator between them. U.S. wants that India should lessen its import of arms from Russia, but Moscow sometimes also transfers technology to India which western countries including U.S. do not transfer. Recently Rostec state-owned Russian arms firm announced that it would start manufacturing armor-piercing tank ammunition in India. PM being welcomed by Indian community at Moscow, in Russia on July 08, 2024. The visit of the Prime Minister of biggest democracy in the world, gave a clear message that the effort of west in isolating Moscow is not giving desired results. Russian GDP is growing, and it is not losing war with Ukraine. Putin also gave a strong message to Modi that Russia is not dependent on China and honours friendship with India. Modi was received by First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Denis Manturov who also accompanied him in the same car up to the hotel. Manturov is senior to the Deputy Prime Minister who received Xi Jinping during his visit to Russia. Putin gave dinner to Modi at his official residence at Novo-Ogaryovo in a “private engagement”. There was lot of grandeur on relationship between Moscow and Beijing and in two months Xi and Putin met twice and Putin also claimed that Russia China friendship was never so good. However, Putin kept the distance and also visited North Korea which was not liked by Xi Jinping. Russia is also giving full importance to the visit of Modi which is a signal to Xi that Russia is not dependent on China and India which has border dispute with China is also good friend of Russia. It is also a message to India that though Russia is close to China but for Russia India friendship is also important. Russia is India’s dependable friend and several times in past Moscow rescued Delhi from difficult situations. Indo-Russian friendship rests on defence cooperation, supply of energy and transfer of science and technology. Russia also gave technical assistance to India for building nuclear power plants. India’s efforts are that because of sanctions from the west situation should not backfire for India and China should not end up as Russia’s only friend. Russia has agreed to discharge all Indians working in Russian Army when Modi raised this issue with Putin at a private dinner hosted by the later. Modi also told that in last 10 years he came six times to Russia. Modi and Putin met 16 times in last 10 years. Russia conferred highest civilian honour to Modi, the Order of St Andrew the Apostle. The award was conferred in 2019 but given on 9 July in a special ceremony. The order was presented to Modi because of his distinguished contribution to the development of a privileged strategic partnership between both the countries. A total of nine MOUs were signed during the visit. Modi discussed the delay of supply of spare parts as well as about the delivery of remaining S-400 anti-missile defence system. Modi also gave some tough suggestions to Putin; he made a direct appeal to end the Ukraine war. Modi also mentioned that no solution can be found in the battleground and when innocent children die, it tears the heart. The message was not only to Putin but also to the west. In nutshell Modi was successful in giving the message to west that India is pursuing the policy of non-alignment while Putin also made it clear that Russia is not dependent on China, and it is a powerful country and honours its friendship with India. However, the visit helped Russia to show the west that it cannot isolate it. Modi also gave a message that India has close relations with Russia as well as with west hence it can be useful in settlement of Russia-Ukraine war. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)

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WE JUST REPORT FACTS, WE DO NOT CHANGE THEM 

What does India’s abstinence from UN voting against Russia signify?

UNGA

By Jai Kumar Verma

New Delhi. 10 March 2022. Since the War between Russia and Ukraine started on 24^th, there are no other headlines in India. Everything including elections have taken a back seat in the media. But one news has caught not only domestic but international eyeballs And this is the abstinence of India from the United Nations voting on the war. It needs to be understood. An old reliable friend on one hand and the rest of the world with lot of friends on the other. And the question is – has India balanced itself well or caught the wrath of the world? 

The Author

India China and United Arab Emirates abstained from voting in the emergency session of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held on 26 February which was convened on the Russian action on Ukraine. India’s permanent representative to the UNO T.S. Tirmurti stated that India demands “immediate cessation of violence and hostilities.” Again, on 2 March India, abstained from voting on the resolution passed by United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). The resolution sturdily admonished Russia for aggression on Ukraine and urged that Russia should immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine. 141 countries voted in favour and five countries voted against the resolution while 35 countries absented from the voting.

Although General Assembly resolutions are not binding but there is political impact of the resolutions. Tirumurti also mentioned that “Keeping in view the totality of the evolving situation, India has decided to abstain.” India also abstained from voting in 2014 on the UNGA resolution against Russia when it annexed Crimea. In fact, it is the fourth time India abstained from voting in different UN bodies resolutions after Russia entered Ukraine. 

 

Friends Indeed

India has cordial relations with Russia and in past Moscow extended different types of assistance to India. Hence by absenting India safeguarded its national interest and it is a pragmatic approach. Although few analysts mentioned that India should have taken a principled stand and should have voted in favour of the resolution, as a powerful country invaded its weak democratic neighbour, but these are only murmurs. Since its inception the five permanent members of UNO are blocking the increase of the number of permanent members as it is in their national interest hence by abstaining India also worked in its national interest.

Moscow is India’s leading supplier of armaments since the cold war era. And we don’t need Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) to tell us that Russia is the most important arms supplier to India and almost two-thirds of India’s imports are from Russia. At present about seventy percent of defence forces equipment are of Russian origin. India and Russia signed “India-Russia Strategic Partnership” in October 2000. India’s ‘Main Battle Tank’(MBT) consists of Russian T-72 M1 and T-90S tanks. Indian navy’s aircraft carrier, several frigates, nuclear submarine, and several other defence equipment are of Russian origin. Large number of Indian fighter jets are of Russian origin. Besides weapons Russia also provides technology to India which most of the countries avoid giving to India.  

Russia always been on India’s side in Kashmir dispute. Moscow also supported Indian government’s policies in Kashmir. Hence the government decided to support Russia although there was immense pressure from United States and European countries to vote in favour of resolution.

India also needs diplomatic assistance from Moscow while handling expansionist China. There have been border disputes, both countries clashed and there were standoffs in last two years. China has developed infrastructure in border areas and amassed artillery guns, tanks, and troops on the borders. China has not only occupied large area of India but also claims Arunachal Pradesh. India, Japan, Australia, and U.S. constituted QUAD to counter China and expects that U.S. and other members of QUAD may come for India’s assistance in case of conflict with China.

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla rightly mentioned that ,”In the UN, we take positions that are based on certain very careful considerations and certainly we do regard the merits of each and every case,”. He also said that “We will consider them in their entirety and take decisions in our best interests”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also visited India in December 2021 and India purchased weapons worth $5 billion including S-400 advanced missile defence system. Indian government is also trying to evacuate its students stranded in Ukraine and Russian forces are helping in their withdrawal.

The Russian point of view is that the western nations should not have placed armed forces in Estonia and Latvia, should not have allured Ukraine to become member of NATO and Ukraine could have just agreed to not joining NATO and remain independent. Putin realised that once Ukraine becomes NATO member, NATO forces would be at Russia’s doorstep and it would be a security risk to the country. Russia has no natural borders. In past Napoleon, Hitler and Genghis Khan and others invaded Russia through grasslands and open fields. NATO forces would setup bases in Ukraine and the distance between Kyiv to Moscow is merely 860 KMs.    

Russia-China Proximity

India’s position is precarious as the closeness between Russia and China is increasing. China blamed West for compelling Russia to invade Ukraine. China has also clearly mentioned that it won’t join in sanctions on Russia. Guo Shuping, Chairman of the China Banking, and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated in a press conference that “As far as financial sanctions are concerned, we do not approve of these.” He also mentioned that “We will not participate in such sanctions. We will continue to maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with relevant parties.”  Last year the total trade between Russia and China enhanced to $146.9 billion. Russia is mainly supplying oil, gas, coal, and agriculture products to China. In 1950s the Soviet Union and Communist China were close friends however the border disputes cropped up in 1969. Now again both are becoming close allies because of sanctions and other restrictions from the West. The chances that as Russia invaded Ukraine China may also try to occupy Taiwan although there are few differences between Taiwan and Ukraine but in view of aggressiveness of China the possibility cannot be ruled out. At present Russia is developing closeness with China but it may not go very far as Putin would not like to work as a junior partner to Chinese President Xi Jinping. The sanctions imposed by West on Moscow might dampen Russian economy. U.S. and European Union are prohibited to deal with Russian Central bank. The Rouble fell about 30% to dollar and at present it is 0.0081 to U.S. dollar.

On the other hand, the ties between India and U.S. are strengthening because of aggressive behaviour and emerging threat from China. As Russia and China are becoming allies India has to look towards West. Russian invasion in Ukraine is creating a cold war situation where U.S. and European countries are on one side while China and Russia would be on another side.  India has to choose its position in the new emerging world order. It may be difficult to remain neutral as hostile China is at our neighbourhood.

The Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu said that it would be difficult for India to purchase Russian weapons after latest sanctions imposed by U.S. due to Russian aggression on Ukraine. Nevertheless U.S. has not taken any decision to impose sanctions on India and it was left on President Biden to decide whether to impose sanctions on India under Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) or waive the sanctions.  Nonetheless India has to play its cards very carefully.

It is expected that after Ukraine war the world would become multi polar instead of unipolar and  U.S., Russia, China, India, and Germany would emerge as important players. Hence first of all India has to strengthen itself militarily as well as economically and then maintain a balance between it’s relationship with US led western block and Moscow.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)