Pakistan

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/pakistan-tries-tricks-as-modi-3-0-settles-in-post-elections/ Pakistan tries tricks as Modi 3.0 settles in post elections • Back-to-back terror attacks by Pak sponsored terrorists By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 22 June 2024. Pakistan sponsored terrorists stunned not only the residents of Jammu region but also to whole of India including the security agencies. On 9 June three Pakistan trained terrorists attacked a bus which was carrying the pilgrims in Reasi area. The terrorists were equipped with U.S. manufactured M4 Carbine assault rifles. Consequent upon the attack the driver lost control and the bus fell in the valley, killing 10 innocent pilgrims and injuring more than 33, few of them were critically wounded. This was not a stray attack. The terrorists attacked at different places including Reasi, Kathua and Doda between 9th June to 12 June in which besides pilgrims, a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) jawan was martyred and about 6 security personnel and a civilian were injured. Meanwhile Pakistan media reported that some unknown person killed the mastermind of Reasi terror attack inside Pakistan. Pakistani security agencies were not able to catch the unknown men. However, they allege that Indian security agencies are behind these killings. Terrorist organisation ‘Kashmir Tigers’ has taken the responsibility of terrorist attack in Kathua. The government and security agencies were taken aback because of these terrorist attacks, as it appeared that the situation was coming under control and terrorists were losing ground. Secondly Jammu region had very less terrorist attacks, as Srinagar valley was the main target of the terrorists. On 16 June Home Minister held a high-level meeting to review the security situation in J&K which was attended by Lieutenant Governor of J&K, National Security Advisor, Union Home Secretary, DGP J&K, Senior officers of Army, Central Police Organisations and intelligence organisations. Home Minister Amit Shah made it clear that the security forces are fighting a decisive battle against terrorism and the security forces are fully prepared and they are confident that terrorists would be defeated conclusively. The meeting also discussed about the preparations of Amarnath Yatra which is commencing from 29 June and always remain the target of the terrorists. The experts on Kashmir claim that the deep state of Pakistan and master mind of terrorists attacks were uncomfortable because of recently concluded Lok Sabha elections in which the public participated in large numbers and casted their votes. The terror organisations through these terrorist actions want to show that the present government has lack of control in J&K area and terrorists can attack and kill the civilians and can also successfully attack security forces and martyr them too. Terrorists also want that government should be forced to postpone assembly elections, nevertheless security experts claim that government should not postpone assembly elections. Terrorists attacked on the day Modi 3.0 was taking oath and foreign dignitaries of neighbouring countries were in India to attend the swearing-in-ceremony. Experts gave example of Chittisinghpura massacre in March 2000 in which Pakistan sponsored terrorists shot dead 35 Sikh pilgrims in Chittisinghpura village one day before President Bill Clinton had to address Indian parliament. Pakistan’s deep state neither wants peace in Kashmir nor cordial relations with India. The terrorists had selected Jammu region because the security forces have strengthened themselves so much in Srinagar area that it has becoming difficult for terrorists to operate there. Jammu which is considered peaceful has majority of Hindus and has less presence of security forces hence terrorists selected Jammu region. Government is taking stiff long-term actions against terrorists as well as their supporters. Now government has decided to confiscate the properties of the supporters of terrorists as it was done in Kashmir. Cases would be registered against the support agents under stringent sections. The security agencies are making the list of these support agents. It is always important to take severe action against supporters of terrorists as the terrorists cannot act without the assistance of support agents. The support agents assist the terrorists (action agents) in hiding them, concealing their weapons, provide them food & shelter. Sometimes these support agents do recee of the area and provide them intelligence about the movement of security force. Hence action against these support agents is necessary. Police forces have detained more than 50 persons and have also released sketches of 4 terrorists involved in recent attacks. Recently police have also detained three persons in J&K who provided food to terrorists on gun point but did not inform security forces about the presence of these terrorists. These terrorists attacked security personnel in Doda district. Terrorists also attacked a joint-police Army checkpoint in Bhaderwah in which five army personnel and a police officer were injured. These terrorists are Pakistani nationals and wandering in Bhaderwah, Thathri, and Gandoh in Doda district. Police has also announced a reward of Rs. 20 Lakh for providing relevant information about the terrorists. Security forces also used drones to locate the terrorists. The defanging of Article 370 has boosted the morale of the local Kashmiris and barring few incidents the public is refusing to assist terrorists. In case terrorists get favour after threatening with fire arms, the public informs the security agencies about the presence of terrorists once the danger of terrorists is over. It is a big change in the attitude of the masses. On 11 June terrorists went door to door in Kathua district and asked for water with the villagers but villagers instead of giving water closed the door and later informed security agencies. The terrorists in frustration opened fire on villagers. The security forces later killed both the terrorists, unfortunately one security personnel was also martyred. These types of incidents negate the disinformation campaign of ISI that Muslims in Kashmir welcome Pakistani terrorists. Pakistan which is passing through an economic crisis and upset over the peace and tranquillity in J&K has enhanced the number of infiltrators. At present three or four groups of terrorists are operating in J&K, and they are responsible for recent terrorist activities. As locals are reluctant to join terrorist outfits hence more terrorists are being infiltrated so that terrorist incidents continue. The terrorists killed by security forces were Pakistanis and large quantity of arms and ammunition, one lakh Indian rupees, Pakistan made chocolates, dry gram, medicines, pain killers, batteries, and other items were recovered from their possession. Few recovered items have Pakistani markings. Recovery of these items suggest that these Pakistan trained terrorists came prepared for long-term operations. ‘Kashmir Tigers’ which claimed the responsibility of Kathua attack is more or less a new and unknown group. It appears that the deep state is determined to enhance terrorist activities in J&K which is necessary to divert the attention of Pakistani masses as they are suffering because of inflation and rising prices. There are reports that numerous training camps are operative in Pakistan where not only Pakistanis, but Afghans, Uzbeks and persons of other nationalities are also trained in these camps. After training these terrorists would be infiltrated in India especially in J&K for conducting terrorist activities. The security forces have taken full security measures and Mata Kheer Bhawani fair occurred on 14 June peacefully. The fair was attended by thousands of Kashmiri Hindus. Prime Minister Modi also paid two-day visit in J&K and celebrated Yoga Day in the valley. Government is taking full precautions for Amarnath Yatra, about 500 companies of Central Police Organisations (CPOs) including CRPF, BSF, ITBP, CISF etc would be deployed on the route of Amarnath Yatra. Intelligence agencies are instructed to galvanise their assets so that more and more actionable intelligence is collected. The security forces would create several new checkpoints and are also doing cordon and search operations at sensitive places in the state. It is unfortunate that Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) is continuing with its nefarious activities and training and sending terrorists in India. Islamabad should realise that India is a much bigger country with more resources and Pakistan has not only internal problems but also reliability issues geopolitically. There are several secessionist movements in the country. Balochistan and Sindh launched movements to become independent, Pashtuns with help of Afghanistan wants separate Pakhtoonistan. Muhajirs are unhappy and were demanding to carve out an independent nation with the name of Jinnahpur. Residents of Gilgit and Baltistan who are mainly Shias want separate Balawaristan. Residents of Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK) are also unhappy, and they demanded for an independent Kashmir. India being a democratic, peaceful country does not want to exploit these secessionist movements hence Pakistan should also realise and should not provoke India by creating problems. https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/pakistan-blames-india-for-water-terrorism/ • Shahpur Kandi Dam on river Ravi operative By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 06 March 2024. It is a project which has taken a long time to see the light of the day but Shahpur Kandi dam on river Ravi is now ready and functional, and it is no surprise that India’s western neighbour is not happy with this. Under Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), India which has full right on the water of River Ravi, finally succeeded in saving 1,150 cusecs of water which was going to Pakistan since its inception in 1947. Now this water would be utilised in irrigating areas of Jammu & Kashmir and Indian Punjab. And Pakistan understandably is upset. The Author The importance of water cannot be over emphasised. In 1995 former World Bank vice president Dr. Ismail Serageldin stated that “If the wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water — unless we change our approach to managing this precious and vital resource.” Inhabitants of Central and Western Asia and from a few parts of Africa, are migrating because of water scarcity. According to experts about 72% of aquifers are drying up. In 1979 the then Chief Ministers of Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir, Parkash Singh Badal and Sheikh Abdullah respectively signed an agreement to build Shahpur Kandi dam as well as Ranjit Sagar Dam on River Ravi on the border of Punjab and J&K. The Ranjit Sagar Dam is also known as the Thein Dam which is a hydroelectric project of Punjab Irrigation Department. Although the agreement was signed in 1979 but the foundation stone was laid down by the then Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao in 1995. Not much progress was visible because of disputes between both the sates, paucity of funds and not much interest by the central government. In 2018 the Central Government decided that India is wasting lot of water which can be used by farmers of Indian Punjab and J&K. Hence the central government declared Shahpur Kandi dam, as a national project and decided that it should be complete within three years. India spent Rs. 3300 crore on this multipurpose project which would provide 5000 cusecs of water to Indian Punjab. The spokesman of the dam claimed that 32,000 hectares of land can be irrigated in Samba and Kathua districts. J&K would also get 20 percent of the hydel power produced from the dam. However, the work remained slow and instead of three years the dam took six years to complete. The height of the dam is 5.5 metres and two hydropower power plants with a capacity of 206 MW would be completed in 2025. The Union Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office Dr. Jitendra Singh stated at a public meeting at Basohli in Kathua district, on 25 February that Prime Minister Narendra Modi accorded the highest priority to the Shahpur-Kandi dam project as it has the potential to irrigate thousands of acres of agricultural land in Jammu and Kashmir. He stated that “In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was briefed about Shahpur Kandi project and its benefits. He set up high level committee under the chairmanship of PM’s then Principal Secretary Nripendra Mishra. Even former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti tried to sabotage the project by raising the demand of Rs 600 crore compensation from Punjab Government.” In 2016 Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a rally stated that India would augment the utilisation of water resources from Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi rivers so that Indian farmers are benefited. He also mentioned that water should not be wasted and its flow to Pakistan should be stopped. A task force was constituted to study and take measures to ensure that the water of all the three rivers is utilised by farmers of Punjab and J&K and it does not go to Pakistan. India emphasised that under the IWT, Delhi has full control on the water of Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas while Islamabad has right over the waters of Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. Last week of February 2024 saw the construction of Shahpur Kandi dam completing and India successfully curtailing the flow of water to Pakistan. Water is discharged from Ranjeet Sagar Dam for the Shahpur Kandi barrage and within three months Shahpur Kandi barrage would attain its required height. India which understands the importance of water has undertaken several water management projects. It constructed Bhakra Dam on river Sutlej, Pong and Pandoh Dam on Beas and Thein (Ranjit Sagar) barrage on river Ravi. Besides these dams, India also constructed projects like Indira Gandhi Nahar Project and Beas-Sutlej link. These dams and projects enabled India to utilise its 95% share of water from all three rivers. An official of the dam also claimed that once Shahpur Kandi Dam becomes operational, Ranjit Sagar Dam would also be operated at its full capacity and no water would be spilled to Pakistan. The Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960 between Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan with the World Bank being a signatory. Under the treaty there are restrictions on building storage systems, but India has right to produce hydroelectricity. In 2023 India issued notices to Pakistan that it wants to amend the Indus Water Treaty. India also mentioned that Islamabad’s attitude is “intransigence” in resolution of the disputes over the Kishenganga and Ratle hydropower projects. Pakistan which was using the water of Ravi River, opposed the construction of the dam and civil society organisations have organised a rally in Lahore and demanded that India and Pakistan should review and amend the IWT so that the natural flow of the rivers is not hampered. Pakistani media called it “Water terrorism”. On 27 February opposition parties of Pakistan organised a joint protest in Karachi and observed it as “Black Day”. Ravi river near Lahore ‘Pakistan Today’ an important newspaper of 25 February 2024 put a headline ‘Water terrorism’ intensifies as India stops Ravi River water to Pakistan. The hard-hitting article claims that “India has stopped the flow of the Ravi River to Pakistan by constructing Shahpur Kandi barrage which is situated on the borders of Indian Punjab and the state of illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.” The Pakistani media, which is inherently anti India, alleges that India was committing the water terrorism against Pakistan since long and now it stopped water to Pakistan under the pretext of irrigation and hydro power generation. The “Dawn” a leading Pakistani newspaper of 26th February 2024 also mentioned that “India Stops Ravi Water Flow To Pakistan With A Dam In Punjab: Explained”. Pakistan Permanent Representative in the United Nations Ambassador Munir Akram also stated in the UN Security Council that Pakistan wants to strengthen IWT which gives food security to the people of Pakistan. Islamabad wants that IWT should be implemented in letter and spirit. Pakistan’s side of Ravi river is the most polluted river say earth.org Pakistan has neither conserved nor developed its water resources. Bankrupt Pakistan has no money to invest in long-term projects like construction of big dams, canals, and lakes where the rain water or surplus water can be retained. Islamabad is habituated to malign India then get some favours from India by claiming that it is a big country and hence it should show magnanimity. Islamabad used water of Ravi River for so many years as India could not construct the barrage. The present government took initiative and Shahpur Kandi barrage is complete and water flow to Pakistan is curtailed. Now Islamabad instead of blaming itself for not planning or conserving the water wants to blame India and get assistance from international organisations and the western countries. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com) https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/pakistan-elections-stun-as-pti-emerges-leader-with-no-right-to-form-government/ Pakistan elections stun as PTI emerges leader with no right to form government Pakistan Senate: Will the crisis end for it? • Bleak chances of economic revival • No chances of political stability By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 22 February 2024. Pakistan elections are not only of national and regional interest but have been cynosure of global eyes too. The country despite of being small, politically turbulent and hub of terrorism as agreed upon by the world for decades, still is of importance in world’s geopolitics. The widespread victory of The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) allied, independent candidates particularly from Punjab have surprised not only the opposition parties but also the political pundits. The Author As per the results of 264 seats announced by the Election Commission, PTI backed independent candidates won 101 seats while 75 candidates of Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), 54 candidates of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), 17 candidates of Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) won, while rest had gone to smaller parties. PTI workers claim that when the army realised that Imran Khan supporters contesting as independent candidates were winning, the Election Commission started rigging, otherwise PTI would have won 171 seats. PTI workers claimed that during the voting day (8 February) there was mobile blackout, votes were cast in digital darkness. There were long queues, voting shutdowns, poling agents were not only insufficient, but they were inefficient too. Ballot papers were finished in few polling stations, while voting started very late in few polling booths. An election official also reported that the data system was defective, but he was instructed to work with the defective data system. There were attacks on election offices as well as on election officers. More than six lakh security force personnel were deputed on election duties. Political parties especially PTI workers charged the government with large scale rigging. Chairman PPP Bilawal Bhutto mentioned in X (former twitter) that mobile phones and internet services should be restored immediately. Eyebrows were raised as serving Lieutenant General Muhammad Munir Afsar replaced the civilian officer and was made Chairman of National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA) before elections. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has also announced to hold re-elections at few polling stations on 15 February. Imran Khan still in forced political coma As no political party gained majority and PML(N) emerged as single largest party hence Nawaz Sharif authorised his brother Shahbaz Sharif to negotiate with leaders of other political parties. The negotiation started with PPP, but Bilawal Bhutto put very stringent terms and insisted that he wanted to become the Prime Minister. Meanwhile Shahbaz Sharif also met leaders of smaller political parties including MQM. Serious efforts were made to win over the independents as all independents are not from PTI. Bilawal Bhutto waiting in the wings According to reports out of 101 independents 71 belongs to PTI and all are not fully loyal to Imran Khan, so they can defect to PML(N) may be because of greed or because of pressure from the army. Three elected independents namely Barrister Aqeel, Raja Khurram Nawaz, and Mian Khan Bugti have announced that they would join PML(N). Pakistan Army has been supporting three times Prime Minister Nawaj Sharif of Pakistan Muslim League (N) who was called from London, acquitted from corruption cases, and projected as the next democratic leader. On the other hand, Imran Khan was imprisoned, his party PTI was not given an election symbol and PTI candidates participated in the electoral process as independent candidates. PTI leaders allege that Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir does not want Imran Khan or his party, as Khan removed him from the coveted post of ISI Chief and then he put all hurdles so that General Munir does not become Chief of Pakistan Army. Thousands of PTI workers attacked army installations in May last year when Khan was arrested. Later security forces have arrested more than 100 PTI workers. In the beginning when TV channels started showing the results of Pakistan’s 12th general elections, held on February 8, independent candidates of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) were leading. The viewers thought that the public have not complied with the command of mighty Pakistan Army, and it is defeated. It is interesting to note that President Arif Alvi stated that if Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) were used in recently held general elections the country would not have faced the current crisis. Several PTI candidates charged that not only the voting, but counting was also rigged, and they have gone to courts for justice. On the other hand, General Munir stated, “Pakistan’s diverse policy and pluralism will be well-represented by a unified government of all democratic forces imbibed with national purpose. Elections and democracy are means to serve people of Pakistan and not ends in themselves”. Barrister Gohar Ali Khan: Chairman of PTI Barrister Gohar Ali Khan Chairman of PTI claimed that his party won 170 seats in the elections and President Alvi should invite PTI to constitute the government. Meanwhile Imran Khan got bail in 12 cases which are linked to attacks on defence installations on 9 May last year. Giving of the bail to Khan in 12 serious cases spawned calculations that because of pressure from the army, some deal occurred between Khan and Sharif. The deal may be that both Khan and Sharif would jointly constitute the government or as Khan allowed Nawaz Sharif to go abroad same way Sharif would allow Khan to go abroad. There is also news that Shahbaz Sharif would be Prime Minister and Maryam Nawaz Sharif would be Chief Minister of Punjab. Pakistan army prefers Shahbaz as he is docile and can adjust well not only with army but with opposition leaders too. He also successfully brought some funds from abroad when the countries coffers were nearly empty. On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif also wants to install his daughter as Chief Minister of Punjab. General Munir understands that Khan has biggest following in the country despite him being in prison, his election symbol snatched, and his party members forced not to contest election, the candidates of PTI fought as independents, were able to secure more seats than any other political party and have a public goodwill. Khan and PTI contested the election on the strength of Artificial Intelligence and social media. Hence army may be inclined that PTI joins the government, so the civilian government becomes more acceptable to the masses. However, the chances are remote that General Munir would agree that Imran Khan share the power. Firstly, Imran Khan is rigid and anti-army, secondly USA, China and Saudi Arabia no one likes that Imran Khan should come to power. Thirdly General Munir has personal grudge against Imran Khan. All eyes on General Munir The army prefers a coalition government as it would be easy to handle. Public is opposing the army which in the past had faced no such open criticism and it claimed to be the saviour of the country. Public is now not raising voice against army but also considers Geneal Munir a weak Chief of Army Staff. The deep state wants a coalition government of PML(N) and PPP as the combined strength of both the parties becomes 129, they need five more members for it talks were held with MQM and other smaller parties. Few independents will also join. The moot point is that who so ever comes to power has to handle the post-election instability, precarious law and order situation and the economy which is on ventilator. The inflation rate at three-month high is 29.7% in December while it was 29.2% in November. The IMF bailout programme would expire in April hence the newly elected prime minister would have to make a fresh deal with IMF. The inflation is increasing because of weak Pakistani currency and bail out terms of IMF. Pakistani public is suffering and becoming impatient because inflation and rising cost of essential commodities. This family just got lucky Besides economy other important issues include the worsening of law-and-order situation in the country. Islamabad based Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) mentioned in its annual report of 2023 that there were about 789 terrorist attacks and counter-terror operations, in which 1,524 persons killed and 1,463 people were injured. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has threatened Pakistan security forces, and it is getting support from Afghan Taliban. TTP is attacking security forces constantly. Pakistan is also suffering from secessionist movements. The masses of mineral rich Balochistan which is largest province in Pakistan wants to secede. Several secessionist groups have emerged. Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has already attacked and killed several Pakistani security forces personnel. Besides Balochistan, Pashtuns also want Pashtunistan and in this Afghanistan, which does not recognise Durand line, supports them. Besides internal problems Islamabad’s foreign policy has also become difficult. In recent past Pakistan got lot of loan from China while USA helped Pakistan constantly on economic, military, and other fronts. Now the relations between USA and China have become tense and it is becoming difficult for Islamabad to maintain cordial relations with both. Islamabad relations with Kabul and Tehran are also tense. Recently both Tehran and Islamabad made aerial attacks on other areas while relations between Kabul and Islamabad also became strained because of TTP. Pakistan has always tense relations with India. In view of above it is clear that the new Prime Minister would have to face problems in plenty, while he has little powers to decide major issues as he would be heading a coalition government. Not to forget that the real power always remains with the army. It would also be difficult for tainted and publicly less supported politicians to take hard decisions to resolve Pakistan’s numerous problems. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com) Will Pakistan’s forthcoming polls bring political stability & reduce army control? • Imran out, Nawaz in, Bhutto legacy wavering • Army ruling the roost as always By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 5 February 2024. Pakistan will continue with its status quo come what may- is what the world feels. If wishes were horses the beggars would ride and history doesn’t always repeat itself are two adages which fit Pakistan’s political scenario perfectly. On 8th February India’s western neighbour Pakistan will be going to polls for the 14th time. But the million-dollar question is will general elections bring political stability in the country and will its economic woes end? Will the excessive control of the army continue? Imran Khan the former Prime Minister who was courageous enough to criticise army openly in the public is in prison and debarred to contest the elections. On 13th January the Supreme Court of the country denied the “Bat” symbol to Khan’s party Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI). PTI workers claim that as Imran Khan is most popular political leader in Pakistan hence all-powerful army, judiciary, administration, and election commission connived and ousted Khan and his party from political scene. Last general elections were held in 2018, which indicates that current elections are delayed. But this is not for the first time. In past also elections have been delayed, especially General Zia Ul Haq who extended the election deadline more than once. Pakistan National Assembly was dissolved on 09 August 2023, and according to Article 51 of the 1973 constitution, elections should be held within 60 days of the dissolution of National Assembly. Nevertheless, the elections were delayed under the pretext of delimitation of constituencies. The forthcoming elections are held because of Supreme Court’s stern order about conduct of elections. On 5 January 2024 Pakistani Senate passed a resolution that the elections should be postponed due to harsh weather and prevailing law and order problem in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Nonetheless Election Commissioner mentioned that as all preparations are complete hence elections should not be postponed. Pakistan’s total population is 241.5 million and there are total of 128.5 million voters and National Assembly has 336 seats out of which 266 are general seats while rest are reserved seats for women and minorities. Punjab which is the most powerful and populated province has 141 seats while other provinces like Sindh has 61, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has 45, Baluchistan has 16 and Federal Capital Area of Islamabad has 3 seats. In this way Punjab has more seats than combination of seats allotted to all the provinces. As PTI candidates would be contesting as independents hence the party would not benefit from 70 reserved seats. The three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who was in exile, came back to lead Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)-PML(N). The party is popular in Punjab and normal Pakistani feel that Nawaz is a good administrator and can take out the country from the present economic crisis. However, despite corruption charges against him, it is not easy to counter the popularity of Imran Khan and his party. Pakistan People's Party (PPP) is a centre-left, social-democratic political party was established by charismatic leader Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and ruled the country several times. Its main base is in Sindh and has support of landlords. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari who was Foreign Minister in the last government has challenged mighty Nawaz Sharif who has the support of army. Bilawal Bhutto is making sincere efforts to gain confidence of the army. He and his father Asif Zardari both are working hard so that PPP gains majority. Bhutto hopes that as PTI leaders are contesting election as independents hence he can get their support once they are elected. Imran Khan and his party PTI is most popular not only in KP but also in other provinces especially in Punjab. Its popularity enhanced manifold after he propagated that he was dismissed because he dared to criticise army establishment and foreign powers. Pakistani youth particularly unemployed young men and women feel that there is no democracy in the country and defence officers are enjoying while the public is suffering. There are other small political parties like Muhajir Quami Movement (MQM) which has a support base in Karachi & Sukkur, Jamiat UIema e Islam (JuI-F), Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), The Ishteqam e Pakistan Party (IPP), Pervez Khattak’s PTI (Parliamentarians) etc. These political parties have influence in small areas and would win few seats. The present army chief General Asim Munir would oppose Khan and his party and would not allow it to come to power. General Munir was removed from the post of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) chief by Khan when he was Prime Minister. Again, Khan tried his best that General Munir should not become chief of army. Although Pakistan army is a traditional and disciplined army but when General Munir took over there was resentment among army generals. PTI supporters attacked, damaged and looted army installations after the arrest of Khan on a court verdict in Toshakhana case in May 2023. At present Khan is in jail and numerous case were filed against him. Not only army Chief but Qazi Faiz Isa the present Chief Justice of Pakistan is also against Imran Khan. The case under which “BAT” symbol was not given to PTI is cited as an example. Pakistan’ economic condition remains miserable. The country has minimal savings, less export and high import as well as little tax revenue. Its expenditure on defence is too much and country is maintaining large armed forces which country cannot afford. IMF has released second instalment of loan, but it would not solve the country’s economic troubles. Food inflation is very high and General Munir’s initiative to get assistance from Islamic countries also not worked. GDP growth in Pakistan in 2023 was 0.29% while it was 6% in 2022, unemployment in 2021 was 6.2% while it became more than 8% in 2023. Besides economy, security and poor law and order situation in the country is another important issue. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which is also known as Pakistani Taliban are constantly attacking Pakistan security forces. In Balochistan several secessionist groups are active and attacking the security forces. On 29th January, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) an important separatist group in Balochistan, attacked Mach & Kolpur complexes in Balochistan in which 15 people were killed including four security personnel. Law and order are worsening in Pakistan. Islamic State is also strengthening itself and it has the support of Islamic radicals. Pakistan’s relations with its neighbours are also tense. Pakistan helped in installing Taliban in Afghanistan and thought that it would control Kabul but now Afghan Taliban are assisting TTP and refused to adhere Islamabad’s request not to help them. Iran and Pakistan conducted aerial attacks on each other’s territory to eliminate terrorists. The relations between India and Pakistan are never cordial. Recently Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary alleged that India is killing Pakistani nationals inside Pakistan. Beijing is upset because Islamabad is becoming closer to Washington DC and according to unconfirmed reports Pakistan attacked Iran on behest of USA. Pakistan jailed Imran Khan and PTI leaders so that PTI cannot come to power to please China. Beijing was angry as its dream project China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was more or less stopped by Imran Khan. The Human Right groups as well as national and international monitors are also expressing their doubt about conduct of free and fair elections. Award of 10 years imprisonment to Imran Khan and Shah Mahmood Qureshi for violation of Official Secret Act, not giving symbol to the party and mal treatment to PTI leaders/workers are few examples to show that the elections would not be free and fair. The Director of the South Asia Institute also warned that if PTI’s participation is limited then it would be harmful for the political stability of the country. Pakistan’s English daily Dawn of 1st January 2024 mentioned that "Fears that next month's general elections will be reduced to an undemocratic farce have gained traction with the seemingly wholesale rejection of PTI candidates at the scrutiny stage". Human Rights Commission of Pakistan already pointed out that there were cases where nomination papers were snatched from the PTI leaders, candidates and their supporters were arrested, and their nomination papers were rejected. The administration is working so that candidates of a particular party win the elections. Journalists were told not to cover PTI candidates impartially. There are reports that news channels were instructed by Pakistan military establishments not to mention PTI in their news, visuals or in graphics. In the current scenario election would be held but it would be rigged and only those candidates would win who have support of the army. Few analysts claim that it would be a selection and not election. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com) https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/nawaz-sharif-returns-as-pakistan-armys-pawn-to-counter-imran-khan/ Nawaz Sharif returns as Pakistan Army’s pawn to counter Imran Khan Me ! What happened? By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 28 October 2023. Pakistan once again was in the eye of a brewing up political storm. The man who left it all to avoid legal repercussions is back and this time on the call of the all-powerful Pakistani Army. Three times Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan after four years of exile on 21 October 2023. Sharif who was living in London came back via Saudi Arabia and Dubai and in both these places he met people who matter. Prior to his return he stated that the situation in the country is “very chaotic” but reposed confidence that Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N) is capable of handling it and was the party which could take the country out from the present economic and political turmoil. The Author He reached Pakistan in a chartered plane from Dubai to lead PML(N) in forthcoming parliamentary elections rescheduled to be held in January 2024, accompanied by more than 150 persons including leaders of PML(N), journalists and others. Sharif’s lawyer Azam Nazeer Tarar told journalists that the court has granted protective bail to Sharif so that the security forces are barred to arrest him until 24 October 2023 when he would appear in the court. It is believed that Nawaz Sharif has been recalled by the military establishment as well as his party to counter the popularity of his main opponent Imran Khan Niazi of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. Khan is a former Prime Minister of Pakistan who was ousted in April 2022 through a No. Confidence Motion. Later he was imprisoned, and a court awarded him a sentence of three years imprisonment. Despite being sentenced under corruption charges, his popularity has not diminished, as he is challenged not only his political rivals but also the mighty Pakistan Army and United States of America. He was the first politician who so openly challenged the army and there were reports that he was able to create dissension in the army. On the other hand, 73-year-old Nawaz Sharif is also a fugitive as he had not appeared before a court in 2019 and court has already awarded him 10 years imprisonment on corruption charges. He was convicted in the Avenfield and Al Azizia cases. He was also affirmed as a proclaimed offender in the Toshakhana vehicle case. Toshakhana case is pending in an accountability court in Islamabad. Later Imran government permitted him to go abroad for treatment as he complained of chest pain. Once out of country he has not returned and claimed that doctors are not permitting him to go to Pakistan. At present he is debarred from running or holding a public office because of the conviction. Nevertheless, his legal team reiterated that he would appeal in the court and will win the case which would make him Prime Minister fourth time and this time he would complete five years term which would also be a record as so far, no Prime Minster in Pakistan has completed five years term. Is it time for Imran’s political Coma? The local T.V. channels, newspapers and social media gave wide publicity to Sharif’s return to Pakistan. Once he reached Islamabad airport, he signed and filed appeals against his conviction orders. Elaborate arrangements were made by the administration and heavy police force was deployed at the rally venue in Lahore where he addressed a mammoth rally in which he became emotional while addressing the huge rally and while recollecting his mother and wife said that he lost them because of politics. He said that Kashmir problem should be solved. He promised to eradicate unemployment. He claimed that if East Pakistan would have not separated from West Pakistan there would be an economic corridor between both parts of Pakistan. He claimed that he gave nuclear weapon status to Pakistan. He also mentioned about 18 hours power cut which he ended and also mentioned about the inflation which is creating problems in the lives of common people. He also declared that legal cases against PML(N) leaders are false and fabricated. PML(N) leaders claim that Nawaz Sharif is an able administrator and has capability to take the country out from economic catastrophe. They mention that in 2017 when he was removed from the Prime Ministership, Pakistan’s growth rate was 5.8% and inflation was merely 4% while in September 2023 inflation was 31% and country’s growth rate was less than 2%. It is no news that in Pakistan civilians can rule till they are in the good books of Pakistan Army and once they lose the confidence of army they are ousted. Nawaz Sharif has had both hot and cold relationship with army in his long public life. At present army favours him because it needs Sharif’s help to defeat Imran Khan and his party PTI which is vocally anti-army. Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother Shahbaz Sharif who is also the president of PML(N) remained Prime Minister of Pakistan from April 2022 to August 2023, when his government was replaced by a caretaker government. The parliament was dissolved and a caretaker government under Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar took oath. Brother by birth and in arm : Shahbaz Sharif Sharif began his career as a protégé of General Zia-ul-Haq and played a pivotal role in smashing Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). In 1981 he became finance minister in Punjab provincial government and in 1985 the Chief Minister of Punjab province. He was Prime Minister thrice. His first term was from 1990-1993, second term was from 1997-1999 and the third term was from 2013-2017. Shehbaz Sharif welcomed the granting of bail to his brother Nawaz Sharif by Islamabad High Court. He tweeted that “The elected prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, was disqualified based on a fictitious and fabricated story. He was implicated in absurd cases and subjected to mistreatment. Any fair hearing would have established his innocence.” On 24 October 2023 the Pakistani court acquitted Nawaz Sharif in a 37-year-old case pertaining to the “transfer of precious state land” to a media house proprietor. The Pakistan’s Punjab state government has also suspended Sharif’s seven-year sentence in the Al-Azizia corruption case. Pakistan military establishment as well as PML(N) want that Nawaz Sharif should lead the election campaign, however it would not be very easy for 73 years old Nawaz Sharif. He has to appear in courts with connection to multiple cases as he has to face serious legal challenges. His legal battle commenced from October 24 itself. Sharif would have to face numerous problems which the country is facing. Pakistan’s economy is on ventilator and passing through a severe economic crisis where the prices of food, gas and oil have risen so high that it has become out of reach of the common masses. One US dollar is equal to about Rs. 278 Pakistani rupees. Pakistan is facing biggest economic crisis since its creation in 1947. Pakistan’s debt is increasing rapidly, in 1999 the debt was of Rs. 3.06 billion while it enhanced to Rs.62.5 billion in 2022. The debt grew at around 14 percent while GDP was growing at only 3 percent. The country is facing severe inflation, low foreign currency reserves and the value of currency is declining rapidly. It is evident that Sharif returned from London to Pakistan via Jeddah and UAE where he must have discussed financial assistance with both these countries. Islamabad may also get loan from International Monetary Fund (IMF). Who will carry the flag forward ? Imran or Nawaz? With Pakistan Army’s blessings ofcourse? Besides economic crisis Islamabad is also facing severe political problems. Imran Khan had public support, but he criticised army hence he was dethroned. The civil government has very restricted role and army is the real ruler. No prime Minister can survive without army’s support which is more interested in keeping its authority intact. Hence civil government is in no position to formulate or implement any policy without the clearance of Pakistan army. Pakistan is also facing law and order problem as different terrorist outfits created by Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) are involved in bomb blasts, killing of Chinese and attacks on security personnel. Taliban government of Afghanistan, which Pakistan thought would be subservient to Islamabad is openly supporting Pakistani Taliban and attacking and threatening Pakistan security forces. After defanging of Article 370 and removal of Article 35A, the law-and-order situation in J&K has considerably improved which is also against Pakistani propaganda. Imran Khan though is in jail under corruption charges, disqualified to contest elections, leaders of his party are jailed, harassed, and forced to leave Khan but his party PTI still is popular amongst the masses. The masses feel that Khan was jailed under concocted charges while the leaders of PML(N) and PPP are involved in big corruption cases. Hence getting votes for PML(N) would not be easy for Nawaz Sharif. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com) https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/imran-khan-is-down-but-not-out/ Imran Khan is down but not out By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 01 September 2023. The trouble in Pakistan is not ending. It is not only suffering with political uncertainty it’s economic woes are also increasing. The inflation and unemployment are at their highest, in addition the cost of daily commodities have crossed beyond the reach of common people. The general elections which should be held within 90 days of the dissolution of National Assembly are already postponed. The National Assembly was prematurely dissolved on 10 August 2023 hence the elections should be held on or before 08 November 2023 but on 5 August 2023 digital census was approved and new delimitations would be published on 14 December. Afterwards Election Commission had to make arrangements hence the general election cannot be held before February 2024. The critics claim that all this exercise is done as the popularity of Imran Kahn is not diminishing. In fact, his following among the masses is increasing and the popularity graph of all the political parties as well as Pakistan army, which claims itself as the saviour of Pakistan and its ideology, is going down rapidly. The civilian government with the connivance of army has convicted Imran Khan in the Tosha Khana case in August 2023 although his government had fallen in April 2022. Khan was sentenced to three years imprisonment and was disqualified from politics for five years. He was convicted as he sold state gifts which were received by him and his family when he was Prime Minister of Pakistan. The ruling party watched the activities of Khan for more than a year with the hope that his popularity would decline. Sharif government also used the press and social media to defame and malign Khan but when nothing worked then he was sentenced imprisonment and debarred from contesting the elections. During the leeway time Khan and his party leaders openly criticised and condemned not only the political rivals but even the army and serving army chief General Asim Munir was not spared. Khan and his associates openly put outrageous allegations against serving army generals which was rare in Pakistan where army directly or indirectly rules the country. More than 100 cases of different nature were filed against Khan. Besides corruption, cases included rebellion, murder, terrorism etc. Last time workers of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) and the followers of Khan had created law and order problem including the attack on the house of a serving core commander in favour of Khan hence this time before imprisoning Khan the administration first mellowed down PTI leaders and workers. The so-called free press and electronic media was screwed which stopped coverage of Khan and PTI leaders. PTI leaders were arrested, jailed, and tortured hence several top leaders publicly deserted the party, while few left the country or went into hiding. The leaders who got bail, were rearrested and their family members and relations were also tortured, and their businesses were ruined. Although selling of gifts which Imran Khan and his family received was not only illegal but immoral too. Nonetheless his popularity was not diminished as the masses felt that selling of gifts is an insignificant dishonesty while the leaders of the ruling party and generals are thoroughly corrupt and dishonest. The public claims that Khan sold the gifts while opposition leaders and generals sold the country. However, disqualification of contesting polls for five years would adversely affect Khan as public memory is generally short. Khan would appeal in the higher judiciary against the judgement. As Khan is out of electoral politics and senior leaders of PTI either deserted him or joined Jehangir Tareen’s party Istehkam Pakistan Party (IPP) hence Pakistan Peoples Party and Muslim League (N) as well as other political parties would contest election without fearing the popularity of Imran Khan and PTI. Imran Khan is ousted from power, imprisoned for three years, and debarred from participating in electoral politics for five years hence he is down but he is not out of Pakistani politics, and he has solid support of masses. The basic reasons for his popularity include that the middle class especially the young Pakistanis who are fed up with rampant corruption and increasing gulf between poor and rich feel that Khan has the capability to clean the politics and can build a new Pakistan. The youths feel that he has the guts to confront political dynasts of PPP, PML(N) and other political parties. They also claim that he is Mr. Clean and the allegations against him and his family members are just to malign him. The youths are of the view that he is the only person who criticised army and at a point of time created a rift among army officers. Secondly Khan’s supporters firmly believe that he has not done anything incorrect, and his all acts were constitutional. Faisal Javed Khan a PTI Senator tweeted that “Just saw off Prime Minister Imran Khan from Prime Minister House. He walked out gracefully and didn’t bow down. He has lifted the entire Nation.” Thirdly Pakistan which gets lot of financial assistance from USA, but the masses have lot of anti U.S. sentiments. Hence his anti-American stand and charge that U.S. deposed his government increased number of his followers. The normal Pakistani feel that U.S. has interfered in their internal matters. Fourthly the religious and conservative Pakistanis also support Khan as in his speeches he raises religious emotions. He supported Pakistani Taliban and mentioned Osama Bin Laden as a martyr. Fifthly since Imran Khan left office the economic condition has further deteriorated. The present coalition government has failed to give any relief to the public. The policies of 73 years old Finance Minister Ishaq Dar have only increased the problems of the masses. Hence the resentment towards the present regime has multiplied and the support base of Imran Khan has not reduced. Sixthly Imran Khan himself was a celebrity once and even now Pakistan’s celebrities like sports persons, actors, singers, and models support him. Leading personalities of the country back him. The public viewed large scale defection from PTI as handiwork of corrupt politicians with the connivance of army. Public as well as the opposition leaders feel that Khan has the capability of overturning the calculations of opposition parties even if he does not get relief from the court and remains disqualified. Persons from his opposition groups also fear that he would take revenge from all the persons who worked against him. If the opposition parties come to power after blatantly rigging the elections, it will have adverse implications in Pakistan. Pakistan watchers claim that there is no chance for Imran Khan to come back till General Munir is chief of Pakistan army. His tenure is up to 2025 and after it he would certainly get an extension which is usual norm in Pakistan. Not only this in Pakistan the influence of foreign countries including United States, China and Saudi Arabia also work but unfortunately, Khan personally or his ministers have antagonised all the three countries. Hence no foreign country would help Khan to return back to power. In view of this though Khan has lot of public support, and he is not out of politics but his chances of coming back to power are remote. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com) https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/imran-khan-all-set-lose-the-final-match/ Imran Khan all set lose the final match Remember this? This time Imran Khan will actually need the proverbial strecher to help him overcome political eventuality • Army will win on the last ball By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 27 May 2023. This is the most crucial match Pakistan’s cricketer turned politician former Prime Minister Imran Khan will ever play. The team opposite is not Team India but is the Pakistan Army. And the finale has begun. But before the match ends let us understand the reason to this expected result. The Author Political parties in Pakistan are hounding each other since its creation but all have been subservient to Pakistan Army which is the most potent force in the country and moulds the political parties and their leaders at its will. It places the crowns on the uneasy heads of political leaders and god – forbid if they do not comply to it’s dictate , the crown is thrown off unceremoniously. For a powerful army which has not spared mass leaders like Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif who was not only a Punjabi but had huge support in Punjab, when they tried to undermine the army, where does Imran Khan stand? Imran Khan Niazi also became Prime Minister as the then Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa backed him. But when Imran Khan thought that he had mass public support and dared to disobey the Army, he was removed from Prime Ministership. Protests by Imran supporters post his arrest turned violent In the present crisis political parties, judiciary as well as army are playing important roles. Although at present Imran Khan has public support and judiciary also came to its support and granted him bail and protection from arrest up to 2nd June but Pakistan Army doesn’t forgive and forget should be remembered. According to reports there are more than 120 cases against Imran Khan, and it is difficult to grant bail in all the cases and the possibility of imposing more cases cannot be ruled out. The charges include sedition, terrorism, provocations for violence etc. There is an old saying in Pakistan that only those who have the blessings of three As i.e. America, Army and Allah would shine in the politics of Pakistan. Now the trio has become a foursome and to the three As one C which is China is also added. China does not want Imran Khan as Prime Minister because he dared to halt the work on China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China has concealed the terms and conditions of the MOUs signed with other countries always and MOUs between China and Pakistan signed on CPEC are no different and have been hidden till was decided by Imran Khan to expose the conditions. Beijing has cordial relations with Pakistan Army, and they are more comfortable to deal with it than the civilian government. Chinese Foreign Minister meets his Pakistani counterpart recently on return from SCO Foreign Minister’s meet in India China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang paid a two-day visit to Pakistan just after attending Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Goa and convinced Pakistan Army that they should take stringent actions against Imran Khan. Imran Khan was arrested soon after the departure of Chinese Foreign Minister. Needless to say, that America also does not want Imran Khan to come back as Prime Minister because first he alleged that he was dethroned by US and later mentioned that the relationship between US and Pakistan is of “Master servant relationship.” Imran Khan was continuously speaking against Pakistan Army as well as it’s Chief General Asim Munir. Khan was circulating audios and videos in social media in which he was criticising and condemning army openly. For some time, he forgot that he was not living in a farcical democracy. For India he has suddenly become a Pakistani politician who has decided that India is not as bad as Pakistan makes it to be. Khan charged that army played a double game during the time of General Musharraf. It was taking dollars openly but supporting terrorists clandestinely. He also pointed out that Bangladesh was created because of atrocities by army on the masses of East Pakistan. He shattered the myth created by army that Bangladesh was created by India, and it was the political defeat and not the defeat of the army. Khan is destroying the image of army in the masses and the clashes in Rawalpindi and Islamabad have not taken kindly by the army. Courtesy : Times of India What we saw a fortnight ago was unique. First time in the history of Pakistan the public came to the streets and attacked the army installations. It invaded Pakistan Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi and ransacked the residence of a serving Corps Commander in Lahore. The public resentment against Pakistan army which poses itself as the saviour of Pakistan was unprecedented. In past whenever Pakistan army dethroned the civil administration, the public welcomed army as the civilian rulers were depicted as corrupt and looters of the country. The relief which Imran Khan is getting from Supreme Court is only a short-term respite and now army would take revenge of the vandalism done by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). There are reports that Imran Khan has supporters in judiciary, but these supporters would be helpless and soon leave him when army starts taking actions directly. In the beginning it appears that army was also divided and middle level as well as junior level officers and men were reluctant to open fire on agitators as they were sympathetic towards Imran Khan and his rhetoric. The top brass of army was also divided as present army Chief General Asim Munir had to retire on 27 November 2022 while General Qamar Javed Bajwa was retiring on 29 November 2022, it means that General Munir was to retire two days before the army chief retires. There were rumours that General Sahir Shamshad Mirza Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee was also sympathetic towards Imran Khan as he was the front runner for Chief of Pakistan army after General Bajwa. But he could not become chief as General Munir got extension and became the chief. This is history known but just a reminder. However, the army became united once the mob attacked the military installations as the generals felt that the image of army is in danger, and it was time to forget internal rivalries and work together. It also appears that the way the crowd could enter the army headquarters and vandalise the residence of Corps Commander, was a trap in which Imran Khan’s supporters have fallen. In reality Corp Commander’s residence was vacated a week before and now army has full powers to try the PTI supporters and agitators under the Army Act. On May 15 Maulana Fazlur Rehman President of Jamaat Ulema-e-Islam as well as President of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) attacked supreme court premises along with his followers to show public resentment against the judiciary. General Munir is already against Imran Khan as he was removed by him when he was Chief of powerful Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan. Pakistan army would never bow before the public as it considers Pakistan as “the fortress of Islam” and army as its protector from “Hindu India.” Pakistan army is not overthrowing the present civilian government as it understands that at present the country is passing from an acute economic crisis. At present there appears to be no solution of the economic catastrophe hence the blame of it would go to civilian government headed by Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), Pakistan Peoples Party and others. Now the civilian government as well as Pakistan army have decided to take stringent action against Imran Khan as well as against PTI leaders, workers and agitators. It was decided that the action would be taken under Army Act and Official Secrets Act against those who were involved in attacking military installation on 9 May. In past the judiciary rescued Imran Khan by giving relief hence the government decided to try perpetrators of this outrage under Army Act so that judiciary will not be able to interfere. Under Army Act stringent punishment including death sentence can be awarded. The human right organisations criticised the trial of civilians under Army Act. Army has also changed it’s strategy. First, it arrested Imran Khan the founder and Chairman of PTI. Just after his arrest mob became violent. Now instead of top they are going from the bottom. The army has arrested about 7000 PTI workers and protesters. Few leaders of PTI were also arrested. Information is pouring that security forces are torturing the leaders and activists ruthlessly. The army would handle Khan and his supporters mercilessly as they would not allow to tarnish the image of army. Khan and his supporters are using social media to spread venom against army and present government. The chances of free and fair elections in Pakistan are remote as in case of elections Imran Khan and his PTI party would win with thumping majority as his following has considerably increased. But at present all internal and external forces are working against Imran Khan. It appears that Pakistan army would suppress the present movement ruthlessly. Imran Khan and his staunch followers would be awarded long term jail sentences. Possibility of attack on Imran Khan or death sentence being awarded to him cannot be ruled out. Imran Khan may be given an opportunity to leave the country and settle abroad. Several PTI leaders would become turncoat and the present agitation would be suppressed. Army would maintain the façade of civilian government, as the present economic situation would become graver with passage of time. The possibility that Pakistan defaults on loan cannot be ruled out. Army supporters are mentioning that emergency would be imposed in the country. So, the Army can fire from the civil government’s shoulders and Pakistan will continue to reel under crisis. And Imran Khan would have become a captain who lost his retirement match. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and Life member of United Services Institute of India and member of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com )