Terrorism in South Asia

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/elevated-partnership-diminished-aid-the-complex-outcome-of-hasinas-china-visit/ Podcast Elevated Partnership, Diminished Aid: The Complex Outcome of Hasina’s China Visit • Bangladesh Secures Strategic Partnership Upgrade with China • China to provide economic assistance of $137 million to Bangladesh • Bangladesh and China Sign Key Agreements Amid Unmet Expectations By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 31 July 2024. During her recent visit to China, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh aimed to bolster bilateral ties and secure substantial economic assistance amidst challenging economic conditions at home. This marked her fifth visit to China as Prime Minister, underscoring the importance of the relationship between Dhaka and Beijing. The visit, however, was cut short, officially due to her daughter’s illness, though diplomatic insiders suggest other underlying reasons. Significant agreements were reached, including 21 agreements and the elevation of their strategic partnership to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. Despite these achievements, Hasina’s trip was marred by unmet expectations and perceived diplomatic slights. Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina went to China on a four-day visit and was scheduled to return on 11th July, but she cut short her visit and returned back to Dacca on 10 July under the pretext to attend to her ailing daughter. However as per diplomatic belief she cut short her visit because of other reasons. The current visit was her fifth visit to China as Prime Minister of Bangladesh although this visit came after five long years. During the visit Sheikh Hasina met Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang. Both the countries signed 21 agreements including three Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) and seven more projects were also announced. Both countries have raised the “strategic partnership” to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership” level. After the talks delegations of both the countries signed the agreements in the presence of visiting Prime Minister and Chinese Prime Minister. Besides covering trade and investments the pacts also included the construction of 6th and 9th Bangladesh-China friendship bridges. The bilateral agreements also cover the export of agricultural products from Bangladesh, infrastructure development in Bangladesh and more people to people contact between both the countries. Prime Ministers of both the countries discussed issues including bilateral trade which is extremely in favour of China. Between May 2023 and May 2024 Chinese exports to Bangladesh were $2.22 billion, while imports from Bangladesh were reduced to $77Million from $80.1 Million. Both premiers discussed Rohingya issue, investments and about strengthening of ties between both the countries. Both prime ministers also discussed regional and international issues. Bangladesh Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud told the reporters that the meeting between Sheikh Hasina and President Xi was held in a “very cordial atmosphere “and it was “fruitful” and there were “very successful discussion”. Bangladesh foreign ministry mentioned that China agreed to provide economic assistance of $137 million. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, center, and Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina review an honor guard during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Thursday, July 4, 2019. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, Pool) Bangladesh and China has close economic cooperation as well as expanding defence relations. China is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner from last 13 years. Although U.S. is Bangladesh’s biggest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) but now China with investment of $3.2 billion has become the second biggest source of FDI. Not only this China constructed several important infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. The infrastructure projects include 12 highways, 21 bridges, 31 power stations and seven projects in the Railways. Dacca has joined Xi Jinping’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2016. Both countries have strong defence ties and Beijing supplied submarines, tanks and fighter jets to Dacca. 74% of Bangladesh defence imports were from China. Not only this China stood firmly behind Sheikh Hasina when U.S. and European countries were pressurising her government to hold free and fair elections. Both China and Bangladesh would celebrate the golden jubilee of the establishment of their diplomatic relations next year. However, in the current visit Sheikh Hasina was unhappy as she was expecting $5 billion loan and assistance while she got merely $137 million. Although before her visit long drawn discussions were held between Chinese and Bangladeshi officials and it was expected that during the visit China would announce a package of five billion dollars. Hasina in the anticipation of a big aid package went with a large delegation consisting of 196 members which included cabinet members, bureaucrats and other business persons to China. She was also upset as she felt that Beijing has not provided suitable protocol to her. Hasina was expecting a long meeting with President Xi, but he gave very less time and Prime Minister Li became the main interlocutor. Not only this Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has not called on the visiting Prime Minister. Chinese media which is totally state controlled has also not given proper coverage to her visit. Hasina, who is a seasoned politician, got upsent and cut short her visit in the pretext of attending her ailing daughter. By cutting short her visit she also gave a stern message to China. Bangladesh has close historical and cultural ties with India while Dacca wants to have good relations with Beijing which is not only the second economic power in world but also has deep pockets. China also gives loan to developing countries for construction of infrastructure projects. Although China lays “debt trap” and its rate of interest is more, and the loan has hidden and stringent terms. Sri Lanka and Pakistan both are suffering because of loan terms in Chinese agreements. China has offered loan but with higher rate of interest hence Sheikh Hasina who is a seasoned politician and a popular leader in the country has refused to accept these terms. Hasina tries to maintain a balance between Delhi and Beijing. Both India and China have border disputes and in 1962 there was a war between both the countries and there were conflicts in between. In May 2020 there was clash at Galwan valley in which 20 Indian soldiers including a colonel were martyred although China has not disclosed their casualties but according to reports China lost 40 soldiers in the battle. Besides it China also wants to encircle India and tries to disrupt its economic progress. This time China became unhappy as Sheikh Hasina attended Modi 3.0 swearing-in-ceremony on 9th June and again made an official visit to India from June 21-22. Xi Jinping gave a strong message to Hasina that she should not keep close relations with India. There are reports that Hasina was informed indirectly by Chinese that she should not visit India before her visit to China. During her visit to India, she made several promises of bilateral commitments including rail transit to India from Bangladesh territory. She also agreed for the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project in collaboration with India which was disliked by China. Beijing has already allotted $1billion for this project as it wanted to come near Indian borders through this project. At present the economy of Bangladesh is passing through a difficult phase and there is no sign of early recovery hence China backtracked from its commitment of massive economic assistance. At present Chinese economy is also in trouble hence Beijing avoided taking the risk of giving loan to Bangladesh. Hasina and her Bangladesh Awami League popularly known as Awami League (AL) projected her China visit as successful because several MOUs were signed, and Beijing promised the assistance of $2 billion. Free Trade Agreement was signed, China extended duty free facilities though now Bangladesh is not “least developed country”. Xi also promised to help Bangladesh in solving its Rohingya refugees’ problem. Awami League has to project the visit as successful because of the opposition parties and Dacca is in no position to annoy Beijing as it is still dependent on China on many essential items. Besides this the country is passing through massive student agitation in which more than 174 people died including several police personnel. More than 2500 persons were arrested hence the party is trying to divert the attention of masses by showing that Hasina’s China visit was very successful, and Beijing has promised economic assistance. It appears that Sheikh Hasina by seeing the pitiable economic conditions of Sri Lanka, Pakistan and other African countries is leaning more towards India. The economic condition of these countries worsened because of loan taken from China on higher interest rates. The leaders of other countries are aware that China is an expansionist country while India is a friend which helps without any malicious intentions. Although Dacca cannot come out easily from Chinese debt trap, but it must try hard otherwise the economy of the country would further deteriorate. It is the success of Indian diplomacy that Bangladesh is trusting more on India than China although Beijing has stronger economic relations with it than India. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China highlighted both the strengths and strains in Bangladesh-China relations. While numerous agreements were signed and the strategic partnership was elevated, the visit fell short of her expectations, particularly regarding financial assistance. The lukewarm reception and the minimal economic aid package led to her abrupt return to Dhaka. Hasina’s balancing act between China and India remains delicate, especially given the complex geopolitical dynamics and Bangladesh’s economic challenges. The trip’s outcome illustrates the intricate dance of diplomacy and the economic realities that smaller nations must navigate between larger powers. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com) https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/should-india-be-worried-about-growing-china-russian-alliance/ Should India be worried about growing China-Russian alliance? Courtesy : www.news.cn Is this optimism personified? By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 30 May 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met 40 times in the last ten years. Russian dependence on China is increasing rapidly because of western sanctions due to Russian Ukraine war. Analysts claim that Beijing has emerged as an economic lifeline to Moscow because of western sanctions. Putin who was on a two-day visit to China met Xi at the Great Hall of the People on 16 May 2024. Putin mentioned that Russian Chinese friendship is non opportunistic while Xi claimed that it is “everlasting”. The west especially United States is concerned about China’s export of ‘dual use’ items to Russia. Moscow and Beijing have signed “no limits” strategic partnership before Russia-Ukraine war commenced. China repeatedly claimed that it is not supplying arms and ammunition to Russia and also denied that it is supplying dual use items to Russia. However, US claims that China is supplying computer chips, machine tools and other logistic items which can be used by Russia in war with Ukraine. China continues to supply several important items to Russia despite sanctions from west as Beijing considers that US and other western countries want to supress China. Economic ties between China and Russia is strengthening and according to an estimate Russian trade with China in the Chinese yuan grew about 80 times after Russian Ukraine war. China being a manufacturing hub of the world has enormous energy requirements while Russia has plenty of energy for export. The trade between both the countries is enhancing rapidly. In 2023 the bilateral trade between both the countries reached $240.1 billion which crossed the target of $200 billion before schedule. The growing economic ties between China and Russia would generate an economic competition for US and its western allies. $300 billion gas pipeline known as Power of Siberia signed in 2014 is a threat to US energy security. The military cooperation between both the countries also grew rapidly. There were numerous joint military exercises and in November 2021 both countries signed a Road Map for Military cooperation for 2021-2025. Russia and China undergone more than 75 joint military exercises between 2003 and 2022. Beijing is assisting Moscow to increase its defence industrial base and though Russia is engaged in a war with Ukraine but with Chinese active assistance its defence production has considerably increased. As Russia cannot buy strategic items from U.S. and other western countries hence it is buying it from China, around 90 percent of micro chips Russia is purchasing from China. China is helping Russia in producing drone, turbojet engines, microelectronics, cruise missiles just to name few. Russia has expanded production of artillery rounds because of import of raw material from China. Beijing is also helping Moscow in improving its satellite and also provides imageries which helps it in war with Ukraine. The increasing military cooperation between Russia and China may become a military threat to U.S. and its allies and it may become difficult for West to save its interests in important areas including Asia-Pacific. The political ties between Russia and China are strengthening as both consider United Staes as their major adversary and they have same view on several international issues. Both think that US-dominated international system is unfair and needs drastic changes. Both Beijing and Moscow are working jointly to decrease worldwide dependence on US dollars. Both countries are trading in Chinese Yuan. Both countries are also against unilateral sanctions to enforce the foreign policy of the country. There are several challenges to China Russia relations. In cold war era Soviet Union was the senior partner but now things have changed. Chinese economy in 2023 is of $17.71 trillion wile Russian economy in end of 2023 was $4.172 trillion in purchasing power parity terms. Hence Chinese economy is much stronger than Russian economy. China represents 18% of all Russian trade while Russia represents only 2% of Chinese trade. In 2022 Chinese population was 141.22 crores while Russian population was 14.42 crores. It means Chinese population was 10 times more than Russian population. At present Russian dependence on China is much more than Chinese dependence on Russia. This inequality is important for shaping the bilateral relations of both the countries. It would be difficult for Putin to work as junior partner of Xi. Chinese economy depends on export and USA is China’s top trading partner as 14.8% of China’s total export is to USA. Besides USA, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India, and Germany are China’s other important trading partners. At present China’s economy is already in trouble hence China cannot afford US sanctions. There are severe implications on growing China Russia relations on US and other western countries. The combined economic and military power of China and Russia would weaken U.S. sway on Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and other places. Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations because of mediation efforts of China, it enhanced Chinese influence in the region. Iran, Russia, China, and other countries did naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman, it would lessen the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran and North Korea. The enhanced cooperation between China and Russia may also pose a cybersecurity threats to the U.S. and its allies. Both countries may launch cyber attacks on the infrastructure, institutions and other sensitive places in U.S. and its allies. Besides U.S. and its allies, India is also worried about the growing China Russia friendship. Russia is a close partner of India while expansionist China is a strategic rival. India has a longtime relationship with Russia, and it is the main arms supplier and accounts for about 36 percent of India’s arms supply. After independence the then USSR helped India in building its industrial base. USSR helped India in various fields including defence, space, atomic energy, technology just to name few. In cold war era Russia extended diplomatic support especially in Jammu and Kashmir issue. In 1971 USSR helped India against Pakistan as it was U.S. ally. The strengthening China Russia alliance has severe implications for India. Russian dependence on China has increased so much that it would not help India in case of India China conflict. The bilateral trade between China and Russia is more than $240 billion. It crossed $200 billion trade before the target date. The trade between two countries is enhancing very fast after Russia Ukraine war. On the other hand, India Russia bilateral trade is only $65 billion. It was a massive increase because of oil import from Russia. About 90 % trade between Russia and China is in local currency while Russia does not want Indian rupees as it claims that it has billions of unused rupees. China invests in Russian energy sector while India only buys energy. Chinese state-owned firms invested about $95 billion between 2005 to 2021 in Russian energy sector. China has also invested about $48 billion dollars in Russian firms. India wants multi polar world, China and Russia also want multi polar world but there perception of multi polar world means anti west while India is not anti-west, but it is non west. Hence the perception of India about west is different than perception of China and Russia. China has enhanced its influence on Pakistan, Maldives, and captured Hambantota port of Sri Lanka. Beijing’s sway is increasing on several countries through its debt strategy. India is trying to counter China’s growing military presence in the region as it is trying to encircle India but close relationship between Russia and China makes India’s task difficult. India is also trying to boost its relations with Japan, Australia, and Vietnam but close relation between Russia and China makes it more difficult. Growing China Russia military cooperation would also create multiple problems for India as Russia is India’s biggest arms supplier. Now India is trying hard to produce more and more defence items under ‘Make in India’ programme. India has also diversified its arms import and reduced its dependence on Russia. France and U.S. emerged as other arms exporters to India. India is also trying to export arms and ammunition and set a target of annual production of defence items worth rupees three lakh crore and wants to export defence items worth Rs. 50,000 crore by 2028-2029. India should strengthen its ties with countries which are also threatened by China. The U.S. status of lone super power is threatened by Beijing. India should try to reduce the influence of China on its neighbours. India can also become more active in multilateral forums and in alliances which may directly or indirectly aim to curb the influence of China. India should take lessons from past too. In 1962 Indo China war Moscow extended political support to China not India. Again, in Galwan clash between India and China Russia remained neutral. However, in case of conflict with China, India needs active assistance because India would need weapons, ammunition, intelligence etc. while for China neutrality can be fine. Hence India should become self-reliant in production of arms especially ammunition and should inculcate friends who can extend assistance in case of conflict with China. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)