Bangladesh

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/resurgence-of-pakistan-bangladesh-ties-a-strategic-concern-for-india/ Resurgence of Pakistan-Bangladesh Ties: A Strategic Concern for India Hits 125 MV Yuan Xian Fa Zhong, a cargo vessel from Pakistan, at Chittagong Port in Bangladesh • Direct Shipping Between Pakistan and Bangladesh Raises Regional Security Alarms • Pakistan-Bangladesh Maritime Trade Reopens After 50 Years By Jai Kumar Verma The Author New Delhi. 28 November 2024. In a move that could potentially alter the regional geopolitical dynamics, Pakistan and Bangladesh have recently re-established direct maritime links after 50 years. The arrival of the MV Yuan Xian Fa Zhong, a cargo vessel from Pakistan, at Chittagong Port in Bangladesh in November marked a significant development. This renewed maritime connectivity comes at a time when the political climate in Bangladesh has undergone a drastic shift following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government. The evolving ties between Islamabad and Dhaka could present fresh challenges for India, with implications for security, trade, and regional stability. Restoration of Direct Maritime Connectivity The MV Yuan Xian Fa Zhong’s arrival in Chittagong symbolized the first direct shipping route between Pakistan and Bangladesh in decades. The cargo included raw materials for the garment industry, food items, and sodium carbonate for textiles. While trade officials hailed the renewed link as a boost for regional commerce, concerns were raised in Indian strategic circles about the security implications of this route, particularly regarding potential misuse for smuggling arms and contraband into India. Despite the long shipping time of over two weeks and high costs, the sea route appears to serve strategic, rather than purely economic, objectives. This development has revived memories of past incidents involving the misuse of Chittagong Port for arms smuggling, including the 2004 seizure of a massive consignment intended for insurgent groups in India. Bangladesh’s Political Shift and Warming Ties with Pakistan The ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government and the rise of a radical Islamist regime under Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus have significantly altered Bangladesh’s foreign policy trajectory. The Yunus administration has lifted trade restrictions with Pakistan, eased visa processes, and initiated discussions on a free trade agreement and bilateral investment treaty. These moves indicate a deliberate effort to rebuild ties with Islamabad. Syed Ahmed Maroof Pakistan’s High Commissioner in Bangladesh mentioned that the direct shipping between both the countries is a “major step” and it would augment the trade in the region. He also stated that “The initiative will accelerate existing trade flows and promote new opportunities for businesses on both sides, from small traders to large exporters.” The sea route, which is more than 2600 nautical miles, and the shipment time is more than two weeks, is not cost-effective. It is more to challenge Delhi and later use it for smuggling contraband items to India trough Bangladesh. In 2022 Sheikh Hasina denied permission to dock Pakistani frigate PNS Taimur at Chittagong port. PM in a bilateral meeting with the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Ms. Sheikh Hasina, in New Delhi on September 08, 2023. After ouster of Sheikh Hasina by radical Islamists under the cover of student’s agitation, the anti-India, anti-Hindu and anti-Sheikh Hasina elements have grabbed the power and now dictating the terms. The 84-year-old Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as “Chief Advisor” and under his leadership the country is fast moving towards fundamentalism and extremism. Yunus lifted the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami and Bangladesh, celebrated the birth-anniversary of Jinnah, though in past the country rejected his two-nation theory by separating from Pakistan. Dacca is also strengthening its diplomatic as well as trade relations with Islamabad. In September Yunus terminated the policy of physically inspecting cargo arriving from Pakistan. Islamabad also delisted Bangladeshi ships from the list of prohibited trade vessels. The tariff and non-tariff rules on Pakistani imports in Bangladesh would soon disappear and there would be free trade agreement as well as bilateral investment treaty between both the countries. The visa process between Dacca and Islamabad also made easier and latter announced that there would be no visa fee for Bangladeshis to visit Pakistan. Dacca has also ordered for supply of 40,000 rounds of ammunition, 40 tons of RDX etc. although it is not the first time that Dacca ordered arms and ammunition from Islamabad, but the present order is much larger than previous orders, hence it is a cause of suspicion. Historical and Geopolitical Concerns The terrorist outfit Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen which has operatives in India also, traditionally uses Chinese and Pakistani weapons and now as direct sea link with Pakistan is started, supply of arms and ammunition would enhance, and these arms would be smuggled to India. Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) would utilise the opening of sea-link and would smuggle arms and ammunition to various terrorist organisations in India especially of Northeast and Kashmir. So far Pakistani cargo was transferred onto feeder vessels generally from Singapore, Sri Lanka or Malaysia before it arrived in Bangladesh. Not only ISI but Chinese who consider India as its competitor can also smuggle arms & ammunition for the use of terrorist outfits in India. China which has global ambition and always try to encircle India would use Bangladesh for fomenting trouble in the country. In past several countries including India used Chittagong port for trade purposes. India also wanted to use Chittagong port as a sea link for landlocked northeastern states however now the plans have to be dropped as Pakistan would be using this port with shoddy checking and in past ISI was involved in providing arms and ammunition to the secessionist outfits in Northeastern states. In 2004 in Chittagong 1,500 boxes of Chinese ammunition was confiscated which was worth $4.5 to 7 million. It was the biggest confiscation in South Asia, and it was allegedly devised by ISI and was meant for banned terrorist outfit ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom). After this confiscation India became very careful about the sea passages connecting Chittagong and Mongla Ports. Last year India got operating rights of a terminal at Mongla Port however the access of Islamabad to the Chittagong Port will have impact on the geopolitics of the region. Myanmar which is suffering from a civil war since 2021 is also near the port and India is worried about infiltration as well as smuggling of drugs from there. According to the knowledgeable sources the present Pakistani goods contained few 40ft containers to which extra security was provided, and it raised suspicion. In September this year Yunus and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif met at New York in the sidelines of UN General Assembly session. Both the leaders accentuated on the need of revitalising the bilateral cooperation between both the countries. Direct sea linkage of both the countries is contemplated as a big breakthrough in bilateral relations after the 1971 atrocities by Pakistani army on the guiltless Bangladesh residents. The brutal Pakistan army killed about 3 million people and raped and persecuted thousands of other Bangladeshis. However now the majority population of the country have not experienced these massacres hence Bangladeshis do not have that hatred towards Pakistan which their parents had. Now more emphasis is given to the same religion, culture and traditions between both the countries. Sheikh Hasina and people of her age group had personal grievances against Pakistan hence she kept Islamabad at a distance. She constituted the International Crimes Tribunal in 2010 to prosecute war criminals and not only banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) but also executed its important leader Abdul Quader Mollah. India has traditionally relied on Chittagong Port for trade and access to its northeastern states. However, the port’s new role as a hub for Pakistan-Bangladesh trade raises concerns about its potential use for anti-India activities. In the past, Chittagong Port was implicated in arms smuggling, including for groups like the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA). The direct sea link between Pakistan and Bangladesh could facilitate similar activities, threatening India’s security interests in the northeastern region and beyond. The Yunus government’s growing alignment with Pakistan is also seen as a challenge to India’s influence in South Asia. Pakistan, with potential support from China, could use this newfound access to bolster insurgent and extremist activities in India. Meanwhile, the weakening of India-Bangladesh ties following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster has added to India’s strategic concerns. India’s Response and Future Course of Action Delhi is closely monitoring the situation and is prepared to take decisive action if Bangladesh’s growing proximity to Pakistan poses a direct threat to its interests. Indian policymakers are also exploring ways to counter the potential misuse of Chittagong Port and prevent the region’s destabilization by external actors. In past ISI used East Pakistan and later Bangladesh for training as well as supply of arms and ammunition to Indian insurgent groups. Sheikh Hasina stopped ISI activities in Bangladesh against India. Although Yunus said that the relations between Dhaka and Delhi should be very close but there is a glaring difference between his words and actions. India also pleaded about the safety and security of Hindus in the Bangladesh as more than 600 persons including Hindus were killed by violent protesters. Yunus also mentioned about the importance and revival of (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), though India is not keen about the revival of SAARC and Pakistan wants its revitalisation. Increase of trade & defence ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh would tilt the military power balance against India. A Bangladesh University professor also pleaded for a nuclear treaty with Pakistan. Bangladesh would not break defence ties with India, but Delhi has to take precautionary measures if closeness between Dacca and Islamabad enhances. Pakistan and few terrorist and radical organisations would also try to make Bangladesh a radical Islamist country hence India has to watch the situation carefully. Restoration of direct sea link between Islamabad and Dacca is not for trade relations, it is a clever move of India’s archrival Pakistan with sinister objectives. So far India had two front challenges i.e. Pakistan and China, now one more challenge i.e. an Islamist Bangladesh is added. Yunus is bolstering western as well as Pakistan’s interest against Indian interests. The present Bangladesh is behaving like East Pakistan which was only promoting Islamist Pakistan’s interests. India is already suffering with infiltration of illegal refugees from Bangladesh and there is a demographic change in few districts of the country especially of Assam. However, it does not mean that India would watch the changing situation helplessly. India’s economy is much stronger than Pakistan and Bangladesh and Dacca depends on India for several commodities, and it cannot ignore India. Delhi is watching the situation and would use its levers when it would find that Bangladesh is working against the interests of India. India Bangladesh bilateral trade in FY 2022-23 was about USD 15.9 billion while Bangladesh Pakistan bilateral trade in 2023 was only $800 million. India Bangladesh trade is about 50 years old hence it cannot be scrapped so easily as Dacca is dependent on India for several items. In nutshell the present situation is fluid, and India has to watch it carefully and take appropriate decisions at apposite time. The re-establishment of direct maritime links between Pakistan and Bangladesh, coupled with the political shift in Dhaka, poses a complex challenge for India. While Bangladesh’s economic ties with India remain robust, the emerging alignment between Islamabad and Dhaka, driven by strategic and ideological motives, could undermine regional stability. India must remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding its interests while leveraging its economic and strategic strengths to navigate this evolving geopolitical landscape. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com) Nhttps://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/navigating-the-bangladesh-crisis-impact-on-india-and-strategic-way-forward/avigating the Bangladesh Crisis: Impact on India and Strategic Way Forward The Author By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 19 September 2024. It has been a month and a half since a political crisis in Bangladesh, marked by the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, highlighting the complex interplay of internal and external forces that have reshaped the nation’s political landscape. Once celebrated for its rapid economic growth under Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh is now grappling with widespread unrest, protests, and foreign interference. Despite impressive achievements in infrastructure, energy, and cross-border cooperation, deep-rooted public dissatisfaction with governance, coupled with external pressures from actors such as Pakistan’s ISI, has led to a turbulent power shift. Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus now leads an interim government amidst growing tensions, while Hasina seeks refuge abroad. These developments carry significant implications for Bangladesh’s stability, regional security, and India’s strategic interests in the region. The present turmoil in Bangladesh proves that economic growth alone is not sufficient for keeping the masses silent and satisfied. The public wants distribution of wealth, equality, adequate job creation, medical expertise and educational facilities in addition to many other things. In the present age of social media, rebellion of masses cannot be suppressed by force. The economy of Bangladesh grew very fast under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina. The annual GDP growth rate was consistently above 6 percent and reached 7.3 percent in 2018 and Bangladesh became the fastest growing economy in Asia. Hasina successfully addressed issues of power supply and also made efforts to develop the infrastructure of the country. Hasina also developed cross-border cooperation in multiple areas including development of roads, bridges, tunnels and power supply. Bilateral trade of Bangladesh increased with India, China and other countries. Readymade Garment Industry (RMG)’s export was considerably enhanced, remittances increased, and service and construction industries were doing good. Muhammad Yunus : Hasina’s nighmare However, the agitation which started against reservation of jobs in government services soon turned to be against Awami League and demonstrators started demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Clashes occurred between protesters and Awami League (AL) supporters. Police also resorted to firing to control the demonstrators in which more than 300 persons lost their lives within a fortnight of demonstrations, which became violent and police was unable to control them. Hasina requested the Army Chief to restore law and order, who showed his inability, which forced Hasina to resign and leave the country on 5th August 2024. Soon after her departure the protesters entered Prime Minister’s official residence and created rampage and wrecked statues of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, popularly known as Bangabandhu. Sheikh Hasina fled to India and contemplating to take asylum in a third country. Khalida Zia her arch rival, former Prime Minister and Chief of Bangladesh National Party (BNP) was released from prison along with several protesters and her party leaders. On 8 August Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus took oath as head of the interim government, along with 13 of his 16-member cabinet. His official designation is Chief Advisor of the government. The leaders of Awami League (AL) allege that Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) and BNP were behind the protest. The minorities including Hindus, Ahmadiyya, faced more than 200 attacks, their temples were damaged, and Hindus were killed. In total contradiction of Interim government’s chief adviser Yunus statement that “We are a nation of communal harmony. No one shall do any act that destroys religious harmony”, Home Affairs adviser Lt. General (retd) Jahangir Alam Chowdhury told to Hindu community to stop activities of Durga puja particularly music playing during Azan and Namaz. Azan and Namaz are five times a day. This discriminatory order came just few days before Durga Puja to satisfy the fundamentalists in the country. Bangladesh analysts suggest that the protests were orchestrated by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which incited and funded fundamentalist groups, particularly Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), which played a leading role in the unrest. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) also supported the movement. Additionally, international powers like the United States and China reportedly had vested interests in removing Sheikh Hasina, whom they viewed as overly aligned with India. The U.S. was displeased with Hasina for refusing to allow a military base in Bangladesh, while China grew frustrated after she made two visits to India in quick succession, one was just before a planned visit to Beijing. Her reception in China was notably frosty, with President Xi Jinping granting her only a brief ten-minute meeting, and failing to provide the anticipated $5 billion in financial assistance. Pakistan, on the other hand, sought her removal due to her strong ties with India and her efforts to halt ISI’s anti-India operations from Bangladeshi soil. Furthermore, Pakistan viewed Hasina’s leadership, which had driven Bangladesh’s rapid progress, as a stark contrast to its own internal crises—spanning economic, political, and law-and-order issues—further fuelling its desire to see her ousted. All internal and external forces joined hands and worked against Hasina and her party Awami League but once she was ousted and was forced to leave Bangladesh, the differences between the parties opposing her came on surface. BNP which is an anti-India party wants that there should be early elections so that the party can encash anti-Awami League sentiments. BNP also wants that Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) which was in the forefront during agitation should leave place for BNP as it is the main opposition party. JEI leaders claim that the agitation was their handiwork, and they lost their workers hence they should remain in lead role. It has close ideological links with Muslim Brotherhood, ultra-Islamists Hefazat-e-Islam, Islamic State (IS), Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), and the Pakistani based Lashkar-e-Taiba. Hasina has a tough nut to crack in Yunus Mohammed Yunus, who has support of U.S. and Bangladesh Army Chief, is against early elections as he also wants to retain power. He claims that the country needs several reforms urgently and for that he constituted six committees for reforms (i)Electoral Committee, (ii) Police administration, (iii) Judiciary (iv)Anti-corruption (v)Public Administration and (vi) Constitution. The reports of these committees and the reforms etc. would take time and elections can be held after it. Nevertheless, it is uncertain how long the army chief who refused to help his relation Hasina would continue to support Yusuf. It will not be easy for Yusuf to withstand the pressure from political parties which are insisting for early polls. Bangladesh analysts suggest that the protests were orchestrated by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which incited and funded fundamentalist groups, particularly Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), which played a leading role in the unrest. Same way foreign powers worked together to overthrow Sheikh Hasina although their interests were different. According to reports US wants a military base to counter China which in turn wants to reduce influence of U.S. and India in Bangladesh. ISI wants to start anti-India operations and there are reports that Pakistan would try to make a confederation with Bangladesh. Here it is significant that Awami League and Sheikh Hasina have very good following in the country. She was ruling the country continuously from last 15 years. She ruled before that too. Her father and family gave supreme sacrifice and took out Bangladesh from the clutches of Punjabi dominated Pakistan. Hence no one should underestimate following of Awami League and Sheikh Hasina. Friend indeed Bangladesh wants that India should hand over Sheikh Hasina to them. There is extradition treaty between both the countries. But the chances that India would hand her over to Bangladesh is remote, as Bangladeshi authorities have put more than 100 cases against her. As Pakistan supported elements are indulging in anti-India rhetoric in the country without realising that key sectors of the country including security cooperation, trade relations, the power sector and movement of goods and people would be adversely affected. Transboundary water collaboration with India is also crucial. India is closely monitoring the turmoil in Bangladesh, as a political crises across South Asia have direct implications for the region, including India. The government led by Mohammed Yunus is grappling with ongoing instability, and despite its commitment to maintaining strong ties with India, ISI-backed extremist factions are fostering an anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina has long-standing ties with India. After the assassination of her father and other family members in 1975, she and her sister sought refuge in India until her return to Bangladesh in 1981. Upon her arrival, she was met by Ajit Doval, India’s National Security Advisor, reflecting the depth of their relationship. While there is currently a wave of anti-India sentiment, a significant portion of the Bangladeshi population still acknowledges India’s crucial role during the 1971 independence movement and the legacy of Sheikh Hasina’s father. As India navigates the current situation, it must recall Hasina’s efforts in curbing ISI-sponsored anti-India activities from Bangladeshi soil. Under her leadership, ISI was prevented from training and infiltrating terrorists into India’s northeastern states. There is a real possibility that, with Hasina’s removal, ISI may resume its operations against India through Bangladesh. China, which views India as a strategic rival, is likely to exploit this instability, seeking to increase its influence in Bangladesh. By doing so, China could support Pakistan’s efforts to revive terrorism in India using Bangladeshi territory. Meanwhile, Yunus and the military have struggled to restore order in Bangladesh, with more than a month passing since Hasina’s ouster. The growing influence of JEI and the rising tide of radicalization and Islamic extremism are further destabilizing the country. These developments pose serious risks for India’s security and regional stability. Sheikh Hasina’s son Sajeeb Wajid gave multiple interviews after her ouster. In these interviews he made it clear that his mother had not resigned, she left the country because she wanted that the students and protesters should not be harmed. He also alleged that the demonstrations were conducted by handful of persons on the instigation of foreign forces especially ISI. He made it clear that Hasina would go back to Bangladesh once democracy is restored and she is in touch with her party leaders. He also claimed that though he is not interested in politics but as there is a leadership vacuum in the country he may go for the sake of party and country. Joy as he is fondly called, hoped that Indian government should pressure the current Bangladesh government to restore democracy and hold free and fair elections in which Awami League can participate. Goodwill India and Bangladesh share a 4,096-Kilometre-long border, besides West Bengal it also share border with Assam, Tripura, Mizoram and Meghalaya. ISI created and assisted terror outfits in Northeastern states firstly from East Pakistan and afterwards with the help of BNP, JEI etc. Once Hasina came to power she stopped ISI activities from Bangladesh. China is also trying to increase its influence in Bangladesh hence India needs a friendly democratic government in Dacca. Consequently, India should not abandon Sheikh Hasina and should try to have free and fair elections in Bangladesh. The possibility that Awami League under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina or someone else comes to power cannot be ruled out, as only a thin minority was involved in the anti-Hasina protests. Awami League has still large following in Bangladesh. Protests end Hasina’s regime The political turmoil in Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina’s departure has created a volatile situation with far-reaching consequences for the country and its neighbours, particularly India. The rise of fundamentalist elements like Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), the potential re-emergence of ISI-backed terrorist activities, and China’s growing influence complicate the scenario further. While Bangladesh’s interim government struggles to stabilize the nation, calls for early elections persist, with opposition parties vying for power. India, which shares deep historical ties and a long border with Bangladesh, faces the challenge of balancing diplomatic efforts to maintain stability while addressing the growing anti-India sentiments fuelled by extremist factions. Given Hasina’s pro-India stance and her efforts to curb ISI activities in the past, India may find it crucial to advocate for a democratic and peaceful resolution to the crisis, ensuring that a friendly and stable government emerges in Dhaka. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com) https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Bangaldesh-Myanmar.jpg Sheikh Hasina fears Balkanization of Bangladesh and Myanmar File Pic : Friends in need and indeed • Geopolitical Alert: Accuses Western Power of Destabilization Plans By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 11 June 2024. In a startling revelation following the recent general elections in Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has accused a Western power of conspiring to create a new Christian state akin to East Timor by carving out territories from Bangladesh and Myanmar. Speaking at a 14-party meeting at her residence, Hasina disclosed that a foreign emissary had approached her before the January 7, 2024, elections, suggesting she could secure a trouble-free re-election if she permitted a foreign military base in Bangladesh. Hasina, 76 years old is an experienced leader, had not given the name of any country, although by the reference it was clear that she was hinting about United States of America. The Prime Minister, reiterated her stance against foreign military bases on Bangladeshi soil, emphasizing the strategic and security implications for the region, particularly for Bangladesh and its neighbour, India. This bold assertion comes amid widespread criticism of the election process and heightened geopolitical tensions involving major global powers. Sheikh Hasina Prime Minister of Bangladesh warned that a western power is hatching a conspiracy to create a new Christian country like ‘East Timor’ from carving out areas from Bangladesh and Myanmar. She also mentioned that before Bangladesh general elections held on 7 January 2024 a ‘white man’ met her and suggested that if she allows to establish a military base of a foreign country in Bangladesh, she can have a trouble-free re-election. Hasina who is also President of Awami League revealed this at the 14-party meeting at her residence soon after the general elections. She secured the landslide victory fifth time in one sided election as the main opposition party Bangladesh National Party (BNP) refused to participate in the election. BNP, which is led by ailing former Prime Minister Khalida Zia, boycotted the elections as her demand that Hasina should resign, and elections should be held under the caretaker government was rejected by the ruling party. Awami League claimed that now there is no provision of holding election under the caretaker government in the constitution. Bangladesh leaders claim that U.S. wants to establish a military base at strategically located St. Martin Island which is a small island and is southernmost part of Bangladesh. It is about nine KMs south of the tip of the Cox’s Bazar-Teknaf peninsula. There is another small adjacent island namely Chera Dwip which is separated at high tide. In Bengali St. Martin Island is known as Narikel Zinzira and its meaning in Bengali is ‘Coconut Island’ and it is a coral reef island. Awami League leaders assert that Bangladesh is ready to assist U.S. for its peacekeeping missions, for extending humanitarian assistance etc. but Dacca would not allow U.S. or for that matter any other country to establish military base at St Martin Island or anywhere in the country. Bangladeshis assert that they do not want any arms race between U.S. and China in Bangladesh and would not help any country to curb other country. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina would not render any concession because of foreign pressure. U.S. base would not only against the interests of Bangladesh but would also have security implications for India. Bangladesh has close relations with Russia also and a military base of U.S. would harm its relations not only with China but with Russia too. Moscow played an important role in 1971 when Bangladesh got freedom from repressive rule of Pakistan. In 2023 Matthew Miller spokesperson of U.S. Department of State made it clear in a press conference that U.S. has no intention of taking control of the island. Sheikh Hasina also mentioned that a conspiracy is hatched against her and as she has refused to provide a military base to the foreign power hence, she is facing opposition within the country as well as abroad. The foreign power wants to create a Christian country like East Timor. The new Christian country would have parts of Bangladesh (Chattogram) and some parts from Myanmar. She also mentioned that the proposal about a military base came from a ‘white man’. Without mentioning the name and country of ‘white man’ she claimed that he offered that there would be a smooth re-election if she gives an airbase. As she had not given the military base, elections of Bangladesh held on 7th January 2024 were criticised and condemned. It was alleged that the elections were not free and fair. The United States was very vocal in criticising the elections and alleging that it was not free and fair. It is funny that U.S. has not criticised the elections held in Pakistan, where former Prime Minister Imran Khan was kept in jail. At the time of elections Imran Khan was most popular leader and although his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was banned, and he was in prison people who fought on his name or on the name of his party won the elections. There were reports that supporters of PTI were imprisoned, tortured and forced not to contest elections but U.S. ignored all these facts as it never wanted Imran Khan or his party PTI comes to power as Imran Khan criticised U.S. and mentioned that Washington wanted to overthrow him and his party. Hasina mentioned that BNP also conspired to prevent the elections. She also mentioned that inflation is increasing worldwide, and foreign exchange reserve of several countries including Bangladesh have fallen but the situation always remained under control. She made it clear that she is not worried about the conspiracies and would not give military base to any foreign power. She also stated that Bangladesh would not purchase anything from a country which would put sanctions on it. Sheikh Hasina’s former advisor mentioned that Sheikh Hasina does not speak without proof. It is a fact that U.S. is trying to have a base in this area to counter China and Russia and for that U.S. is also taking help from opposition parties including National Unity Government (NUG) of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar and People’s Defence Forces (PDF). NUG is a Myanmar government in exile constituted by the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw. The government in exile was established by elected parliamentarians who were ousted by the present military regime in 2021 through coup d’etat. Awami League leaders also mention that Kuki-Chin insurgents in Myanmar are mostly Christians they can be exploited by other Christian countries. These Kuki-Chin insurgents have revolted against the present military regime. Awami League leaders also allege that Biden government is assisting these rebel forces in Myanmar and U.S. administration have already signed Burma Act under which U.S. administration is rendering “non-lethal assistance” to Myanmar rebels. Myanmar government has objected to U.S. assistance to rebels, but U.S. mentioned that it is helping rebels to curb rising Chinese influence in Myanmar. Awami League also claims that U.S. assistance to Kuki-Chin rebels is dangerous for Bangladesh, Myanmar as well as for India especially Manipur which has several Kuki tribes. These Kuki tribes are mainly living in the hilly region and constitute about 30% of Manipur’s total population of about 28.5 lakh. Bitter ethnic clashes occurred in Manipur between majority Meiteis and minority Kukis in Manipur in which thousands of people were displaced and about 200 persons have lost their lives. Manipur Chief Minister mentioned that the population of Chin-Kuki-Zo tribes have suddenly increased. India has decided to fence 1643 K.Ms long India Myanmar border because of illegal influx of refugees from Myanmar. Not only this India also decided to scrap visa-free movement policy between both the countries because of large influx of refugees from Myanmar. Under visa free movement, people living within 16 KMs zone on either side of the border have visa-free movement. Analysts claim that after Sheikh Hasina became Prime Minister of Bangladesh anti-India forces are not able to use Bangladesh soil for anti-India activities. Hence creation of a Christian state would also create security problem for India. U.S. is desperate to get a military base in the region, hence it has put visa restrictions and threatened to put sanctions on Bangladesh officials. U.S. is constantly criticising Hasina government for taking action against opposition leaders and also tried to force Hasina to step down before January elections so that polls can be conducted through care taker government. U.S. is worried about developing close relations of Dacca with Beijing and Moscow. If U.S. gets a military base in Bangladesh, then the importance of India would also be reduced. U.S. understands that India being a big country with strong military and economic base cannot be bullied much and it would adopt more independent policies hence it wants to pressurise Dacca for giving the military base to U.S. However, Sheikh Hasina is a strong leader with massive following in the country hence she would not give military base to any foreign country. U.S. which is very vocal about human right violations should also not pressurise Bangladesh for providing military base. Creating a new country by annexing parts of Myanmar and Bangladesh is not only unethical but condemnable too. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com). https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/tug-of-war-between-bnp-led-opposition-awami-league-in-bangladesh/ Tug of war between BNP led opposition & Awami League in Bangladesh • Plans to dethrone Shekh Hasina underway • Countdown to election begins By Jai Kumar Verma New Delhi. 07 November 2023. Bangladesh has always been in a political roller coaster and peace if ever has been short lived. Just when you want to believe all is fine on India’s cross-eastern borders, some development creates not only an upheaval but also attracts eyeball globally. The eastern neighbour is a turbulent one too but as friends India and Bangladesh have had strong handshakes always. And this time the main opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) which is the largest Islamist political party in the country, called for a three-day blockade of roads, railways, and waterways. The opposition parties want that Sheikh Hasina the Prime Minister of Bangladesh and her party Bangladesh Awami League popularly known as Awami League (AL) should resign. They claim that free and fair elections will not be held if Sheikh Hasina continues as Prime Minister of the country. Hence Sheikh Hasina should resign, a caretaker government should be installed in the country and general elections to be held under the supervision of caretaker government, is their demand. The opposition parties led by BNP, plan to organise mass rallies before the 12th national elections to force the ruling party to resign. The elections are scheduled to be held in January 2024. In the massive rally held on 28th October in Dacca, the BNP leaders demanded Hasina’s resignation and handing over of power to a non-partisan caretaker government, which would supervise the forthcoming national elections. BNP supporters allege that 2018 elections were rigged and if the 2024 elections were held under the present government, they would forge the elections again. Sheikh Hasina has taken a stringent view and made it clear that if the demonstrators would disrupt law and order or would resort to violence then they would be dealt strictly. Bangladesh, although a democratic country, has a history of violence during political demonstrations, rallies, and protests. Violence flares up in meetings, demonstrations organised before elections. BNP has been organising anti-government demonstrations for many months now, to pressurise Sheikh Hasina’s government but as election is nearing the peaceful demonstrations have become violent. The repression by security forces is also expected to enhance. Secretary General of BNP Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir stated that his party would continue demonstrations to pressurise Sheikh Hasina’s government to resign and install the caretaker government. In an interview Alamgir made clear that his party does not trust the government and if elections are held under their command elections would be rigged. The security agencies took tough action after 28 October rally in which BNP made efforts to disrupt transportation and create violent backlash. Hundreds of BNP leaders, workers, and demonstrators were arrested. According to reports about three civilians and one police officer died and several demonstrators were injured in the violence. About 42 vehicles were smashed during the demonstrations. Alamgir was arrested and after detention of few hours, the magistrate rejected his bail application, and he was sent to jail. The opposition supporters also attacked the residence of Chief Justice of Bangladesh. Police has raided the houses of several opposition leaders and about 1300 persons are under investigation of the security agencies. Sheikh Hasina made it clear that no caretaker government would be installed, and election would be held under the supervision of her government which is according to the provisions of the constitution. Obaidul Quader the general secretary of Awami League also warned that the party workers of AL would also go on streets and would retaliate the actions of BNP and other opposition parties. He also made it clear that “The answer of violence is not silence. The answer of violence is violence.” The Bangladesh watchers claim that foreign powers like China, Pakistan and U.S. are also directly and indirectly assisting the opposition parties albeit for different reasons. China wants to reduce India’s influence on Bangladesh as Sheikh Hasina is considered to be close to India. Defence cooperation between Beijing and Dacca has also increased. China has not only exported arms and ammunition but also provided training to Bangladesh military personnel. It has provided tanks, frigates, missile boats, fighter jets etc to the defence forces of Bangladesh. China assisted Bangladesh in installing an anti-ship missile launch pad near Chittagong Port. The economic relations between Beijing and Dacca have also increased, China has given Duty Free access to 97 percent of Bangladeshi products in 2020. Pakistan which considers India as its main enemy wants to dethrone Sheikh Hasina and install BNP as during the regime of Khaleda Zia Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan was using Bangladesh territory for anti-India operations. On the other hand, U.S. is also trying to enhance its influence on Bangladesh by minimising the impact of China and India. U.S. State Department announced that it is “taking steps to impose visa restrictions on Bangladeshi individuals responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.” The rule would be applicable on members of security agencies, leaders, and workers of all political parties. U.S. and human right groups claim that law enforcement authorities are responsible for disappearances of people who criticise government policies as well as leaders and workers of opposition parties. U.S. is also critical of government’s contentious cyber security law. On 31st October 2023 Peter Haas US Ambassador to Bangladesh met Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal at Dacca. Later Peter Haas stated that US does not care who wins the elections but insists that free and fair election should be held in Bangladesh according to international standards. The US Ambassador also mentioned that all sides should hold a “dialogue” so that free, fair, and peaceful elections are held. However, on 31st October 2023 Sheikh Hasina, while addressing a press conference in Dacca stated that “Is Mr. Biden holding dialogue with Mr Trump? If Biden sits with Trump for dialogue, then I will hold the dialogue (with opposition),”. She also mentioned that people of Bangladesh “do not want any dialogue with killers.” Sometime back Sheikh Hasina also stated in parliament that U.S. wants to remove her from Prime Ministership. As expected, the opposition parties welcomed the U.S. move. The opposition parties and western analysts assert that although Bangladesh is an important player in Indo-Pacific and its significance has considerably increased during the present regime, the country is definitely passing through economic recession. The unity among various political parties has become a big threat to Awami League hence the possibility that it may manipulate the election cannot be ruled out. There appears to be a political deadlock and there could be an opposition boycott of the election unless a caretaker government (CTG) is installed. The provision of CTG was abolished by AL in 2011. Apparently both parties show that they have taken firm stand but backdoor negotiations are going on to end the impasse. Another line of thought is that BNP which is suffering from internal dissensions and as Khalida Zia is not available for election campaigning, the party cannot create turmoil in the country. Hence Sheikh Hasina cannot be forced to accept the demand of care taker government. Several top U.S. officials have visited Dacca and stressed on free and fair elections. U.S. also put visa restrictions, but it cannot dictate terms to the government, is quite clear from Hasina’s outburst. India considers both the incumbent head of state and the Awami League an important ally and extends full support to them. India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra visited Bangladesh in February this year and during a courtesy call at the residence of Sheikh Hasina stated that “We have total support to you and your leadership”. Bangladesh Prime Minister’s speechwriter Md. Nazrul Islam also told reporters that the visiting Foreign Secretary said that India would support Bangladesh in its development including political and economic progress. India has a long border with Bangladesh and as it is strategically located hence it becomes important for Indo-Pacific contenders. On 1st November 2023 both Prime Minister Modi and Sheikh Hasina jointly inaugurated the Agartala-Akhaura project virtually from Delhi and Dacca. Delhi has sorted out several thorny issues with Dacca including border issue, maritime boundary issue etc. Delhi’s help to Dacca will also see that the foreign forces opposed to Sheikh Hasina do not succeed to influence the election. India as a true democratic country always supports free and fair elections not only in India but also in other countries. If BNP with the help of foreign forces tries to disrupt law and order situation in the country, India might extend assistance to Sheikh Hasina, so that law and order is not disturbed which is important for the progress of the country. Recently pro India President of Maldives Ibrahim Mohamed Solih lost election and Mohamed Muizzu who led “India out” campaign won the elections. Muizzu is pro-China and will take over as President of Maldives next month. Hence India should plan a strategy so that the foreign forces do not succeed in destabilising Sheikh Hasina. (Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst and member of United Services Institute of India and The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views in the article are solely the author’s. He can be contacted at editor.adu@gmail.com)